(Market) Size Matters:

Unravelling the Literature on

Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing
Christian Hausherr, Deutsche Bank
Andreas Struzycki, Crédit Agricole CIB

27 October 2021

•
Purpose of this Project
Unravel the literature on supply chain finance market sizing

The industry is thirsting for some form of SCF market size quantification.
Various figures are used to showcase a finance provider’s own market share or highlight the market’s future growth
potential.

But which numbers exist and how do we know these numbers are reliable?

The goal of this project was to

• Provide a comprehensive overview of the available literature that defines the size of the global supply chain
finance (SCF) market,1)
• Depict what the available data says in terms of global SCF market size, and
• Assess what this quantification is worth.

1) As of 30 June 2021

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 2

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Key Aspects for Measurement of the SCF Market Size
Data selection process based on 5 variables

5
Year
4
(Number of) SCF • For which year was it
Solutions measured?
3
• Which and how many
Type of Market Size
SCF solutions were
2 measured?
• What numbers were
Geographical Scope
measured?
1
Publication / Author / • Where was it
Institution measured?

• Who measured?

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 3

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1 Publication / Author / Institution
Total of 56 data points gathered across 41 publications

Coalition /
CRISIL HSBC Secured ICC
Adroit Market Greensill BCR/ Ellwood-
Demica Finance Russell et al.
Research Network
de Meijer & EBA/ Bryant &
BCR/
de Bruijn Camerinelli World
Chen S&P
Valuates Trade Finance Bank
World Bank/ Global
Reports Global / Mulroy UNESCAP/
Buzacott & BIS / Boissay Klapper Grand View
Narain
Zhang et al. Research
Numerous Asian Financial
other
sources Services ICC
Secured FCI Association
Finance World Bank/
Davis & Network Oliver McKinsey/ Klapper
Chen Wyman Herath
EU/ VVA/ Global Marak &
Aite Group BCR/ Business Medius Pillai BSR/
Benisty Intelligence Bancilhon
The International
Hofmann Trade et al.
Wuttke
BCR/ Technavio Administration UNCITRAL
et al.
Bickers McKinsey/
Fitch Botta et al. IBISWorld
Ratings IFC Hofmann &
IFC Aite Group Belin

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 4

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1 Publication / Author / Institution
6 categories of information quality

20

15
Number of Data Points

10

0
1. Primary 2. Primary 3. Reference 4. No details 5.Citations 6. Unclear
data/ data/ to internal provided source
Sufficient Rudimentary source
details on details on
data data Information Quality Category
collection collection

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 5

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2 Geographical Scope
Geographical reach of each market size figure taken into account

Certain
finance
providers in
Country-Level Data a country

Country

Regional-Level Data Europe

Certain finance providers

Emerging markets excl. China

Trade between OECD and non-OECD
Global-Level Data countries
Globally

Undefined but global level assumed

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 6

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Filter Process
Final data base of 26 data points selected for further assessment

60

5
50
Number of Data Points

40 19

30 6
56

20

26
10

0
Total Data Points Excluding Doubtful Excluding Citations Excluding Country / Total Net Global Data
Sources Region Level Data Points
Filter Process

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 7

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3 Type of Market Size
Actual and potential financing volume as the predominant market
size figure across all 26 data points

Potential
Financing Volume

Actual
Financing Volume

Actual
Funds in Use

Potential
Revenues

Actual
Revenues

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 8

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4 (Number of) SCF Solutions
Emphasis put on buyer-centric solutions, followed by receivables
purchase instruments

SCF Master Definition

Receivables Purchase Advanced Payable Loan

Forfaiting Factoring Receivables Payables Corporate Dynamic Bank Loan Distributor Loan Pre-Shipment
Discounting Finance Payment Discounting Payment against Finance against Finance
Undertaking Undertaking Receivables Inventory

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 9

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5 Year
Most market size figures refer to the past decade

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 10

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Global SCF Market Size
Existing market size figures form a highly fragmented and
heterogeneous picture

Actual (Potential) Revenues Actual Funds in Use

80 600
60
400
USD bn p.a.

40
200
20
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Number of SCF Solutions covered

Actual Financing Volume Potential Financing Volume

4.000 60.000
3.000
40.000
2.000
20.000
1.000
0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 11

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Key Takeaways

Again: The industry is thirsting for some form of SCF market size figures Not a single source
without scrutiny. provides reliable,
However, available data on the market size of supply chain finance lacks either comprehensive and up-
• Sufficient background on data collection and methodology, to-date global SCF
• Comprehensiveness in terms of SCF solutions taken into account, market size figures.
• Global geographical coverage, or
• Up-to-dateness.

Publications worth highlighting

1. FCI’s often cited annual review forms a good basis for further analysis but
remains vague on the definition of financing products included in its analysis
and covers only a fraction of the SCF universe.
2. Aite Group makes a promising attempt to provide some form of methodology
to quantify the market size but focuses on buyer-centric solutions, only.
3. McKinsey and BCR remain a popular source for market size figures but
provide very limited information on data gathering and methodology.

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 12

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Next Steps
Build on the existing data infrastructure

Extend ICC’s Trade

Register Scope
Use existing Methodologies
Extend the scope of the
Assess the methodologies ICC Trade Register to
used by certain publishers and further relevant SCF
take it as a basis for an own techniques in use
attempt to quantify the SCF
market size

Speak the same Language Better understand

existing Publications
Agree on the SCF
terminology as the universal Better understand such
language and common basis publications that seem
for any further attempts to promising but lack details
quantify the size of the SCF on data collection and
market methodology

(Market) Size Matters: Unravelling the Literature on Supply Chain Finance Market Sizing – 27 October 2021 13

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Contact details

Christian Hausherr Andreas Struzycki

Product Manager SCF Associate Director
Deutsche Bank Crédit Agricole CIB
T: +49 69 910 64 110 T: +49 69 74 221 231
M: +49 174 31 10 322 M: +49 172 758 09 68
E: [email protected] E: [email protected]