Aviva PLC HY2021 Results Presentation
Aviva PLC HY2021 Results Presentation
Aviva PLC HY2021 Results Presentation
12 August 2021
1
Disclaimer and reminders
Cautionary statements
This document should be read in conjunction with the documents distributed by Aviva plc (the ‘Company’ or ‘Aviva’) through The Regulatory News Service (RNS). This announcement contains, and we may make other verbal or written ‘forward-looking
statements’ with respect to certain of Aviva’s plans and current goals and expectations relating to future financial condition, performance, results, strategic initiatives and objectives. Statements containing the words ‘believes’, ‘intends’, ‘expects’, ‘projects’,
‘plans’, ‘will’, ‘seeks’, ‘aims’, ‘may’, ‘could’, ‘outlook’, ‘likely’, ‘target’, ‘goal’, ‘guidance’, ‘trends’, ‘future’, ‘estimates’, ‘potential’ and ‘anticipates’, and words of similar meaning, are forward-looking. By their nature, all forward-looking statements involve risk and
uncertainty. Accordingly, there are or will be important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in these statements. Aviva believes factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in
forward-looking statements in the announcement include, but are not limited to: the impact of ongoing uncertain conditions in the global financial markets and the local and international political and economic situation generally; market developments
and government actions (including those arising from the evolving relationship between the UK and the EU); the effect of credit spread volatility on the net unrealised value of the investment portfolio; the effect of losses due to defaults by counterparties,
including potential sovereign debt defaults or restructurings, on the value of our investments; changes in interest rates that may cause policyholders to surrender their contracts, reduce the value or yield of our investment portfolio and impact our asset and
liability matching; the unpredictable consequences of reforms to reference rates, including LIBOR; the impact of changes in short or long-term inflation; the impact of changes in equity or property prices on our investment portfolio; fluctuations in currency
exchange rates; the effect of market fluctuations on the value of options and guarantees embedded in some of our life insurance products and the value of the assets backing their reserves; the amount of allowances and impairments taken on our
investments; the effect of adverse capital and credit market conditions on our ability to meet liquidity needs and our access to capital; changes in, or restrictions on, our ability to initiate capital management initiatives; changes in or inaccuracy of
assumptions in pricing and reserving for insurance business (particularly with regard to mortality and morbidity trends, lapse rates and policy renewal rates), longevity and endowments; a cyclical downturn of the insurance industry; the impact of natural
and man-made catastrophic events (including the impact of Covid-19) on our business activities and results of operations; the transitional, litigation and physical risks associated with climate change; our reliance on information and technology and third-
party service providers for our operations and systems; the impact of the Group’s risk mitigation strategies proving less effective than anticipated, including the inability of reinsurers to meet obligations or unavailability of reinsurance coverage; poor
investment performance of the Group’s asset management business; the withdrawal by customer’s at short notice of assets under the Group’s management; failure to manage risks in operating securities lending of Group and third-party client assets;
increased competition in the UK and in other countries where we have significant operations; regulatory approval of changes to extension of use of the Group’s internal model for calculation of regulatory capital under the UK’s version of Solvency II rules; the
impact of actual experience differing from estimates used in valuing and amortising deferred acquisition costs (DAC) and acquired value of in-force business (AVIF); the impact of recognising an impairment of our goodwill or intangibles with indefinite lives;
changes in valuation methodologies, estimates and assumptions used in the valuation of investment securities; the effect of legal proceedings and regulatory investigations; the impact of operational risks, including inadequate or failed internal and external
processes, systems and human error or from external events and malicious acts (including cyber attack and theft, loss or misuse of customer data); risks associated with arrangements with third parties, including joint ventures; our reliance on third-party
distribution channels to deliver our products; funding risks associated with our participation in defined benefit staff pension schemes; the failure to attract or retain the necessary key personnel; the effect of systems errors or regulatory changes on the
calculation of unit prices or deduction of charges for our unit-linked products that may require retrospective compensation to our customers; the effect of simplifying our operating structure and activities; the effect of a decline in any of our ratings by rating
agencies on our standing among customers, broker-dealers, agents, wholesalers and other distributors of our products and services; changes to our brand and reputation; changes in tax laws and interpretation of existing tax laws in jurisdictions where we
conduct business; changes to International Financial Reporting Standards relevant to insurance companies and their interpretation; the inability to protect our intellectual property; the effect of undisclosed liabilities, execution and separation issues and
other risks associated with our business disposals; and the timing/regulatory approval impact and other uncertainties, such as diversion of management attention and other resources, relating to announced and future disposals and relating to future
acquisitions, combinations or disposals within relevant industries; the policies, decisions and actions of government or regulatory authorities in the UK, the EU, the US, Canada or elsewhere, including the implementation of key legislation and regulation.
For a more detailed description of these risks, uncertainties and other factors, please see the ‘Risk and risk management’ section in Aviva's most recent Annual Report
Aviva undertakes no obligation to update the forward looking statements in this announcement or any other forward-looking statements we may make. Forward-looking statements in this report are current only as of the date on which such statements are
made.
This report has been prepared for, and only for, the members of the Company, as a body, and no other persons. The Company, its directors, employees, agents or advisers do not accept or assume responsibility to any other person to who this document is
shown or into whose hands it may come, and any such responsibility or liability is expressly disclaimed.
As a reminder
Throughout this presentation we use a range of financial metrics to measure our performance and financial strength. These metrics include Alternative Performance Measures (APMs), which are non-GAAP measures that are not bound by the requirements
of IFRS and Solvency II. A complete list and further guidance in respect of the APMs used by the Group can be found in the 'Other information' section of the Half Year Report 2021. All references to 'Operating profit' represent 'Group adjusted operating
profit’.
2
Strategic progress update
Amanda Blanc
Q&A
3
Significant strategic delivery and
strong growth in key areas
4
Delivering on our commitments
Shareholder return of at least £4bn including up to £750m share buyback to commence immediately1
All footnotes on pages 48-49
5
Focus is on transforming performance
To be the UK’s leading insurer by establishing Aviva as • Cash remittances1 up significantly to £1.1bn
the go-to customer brand for all insurance, protection,
savings and retirement needs for all of our customers • Strong growth in target areas of General Insurance and Savings &
Retirement with record half year sales1,2, negating subdued BPA
1 2 3 4 markets
Digitisation, Engaging
Targeted Innovation • Controllable costs3 down 2% and on target to deliver £300m cost
automation & customer
growth reduction in 2022
simplification experience
UK financial services leader on sustainability • On track to meet our financial targets and commitments
6
Transform performance: Delivering targeted growth
Growth priorities Fundamental trends Delivery
Bulk Purchase Shift from DB to DC and corporate Good performance despite subdued H1 market
Annuities de-risking Confident outlook with £3.7bn written July YTD
7
Transform performance: Sharp focus on efficiency
Controllable costs down 2% 1
UK General Insurance motor claims
• Focus on delivering top quartile efficiency across all businesses, Office space Expense
through further cost reductions and top line growth reduction saving
8
Transform performance: Delivering for our customers
9
Transform performance: Delivering for society
First insurer globally to commit to Net Zero by • One of the largest UK real asset managers with £43bn AuM
2040 • £10bn investment committed to UK infrastructure and real
estate by 2023
• Strong early progress delivering £1.4bn in first half of 2021,
Climate-focused partnership for a Net Zero future
including:
10
Financial strength: Delivering against our capital
framework
• £1.9bn reduction in external debt in H1, SII debt leverage ratio down to
Debt reduction 26%; c.£1bn additional debt reduction expected over time
to <30%
• £0.7bn reduction in internal loan following sales of France and Poland
Total divestment proceeds £7.5bn – expected returns and debt repayments announced to date >£7.5bn
All footnotes on pages 48-49
11
On track to meet our financial targets and commitments
Financial targets
Cash remittances 1
Operating efficiency SII debt leverage ratio
of >£5bn £1.8bn £300m Top quartile <30%
cumulative 2023 On track to deliver net Pursuing efficiency
2021-’23 savings from continuing across all
operations in 2022 businesses1
Savings &
General Aviva Bulk Purchase
Retirement, Heritage
Insurance Investors Annuities
Protection & Health
Customer acquisition Customer acquisition Enabler of the Group’s Growing long term cash Contributes to
and growth and growth customer and generation current dividends
engine engine sustainability
agenda
12
Interim results 2021
Aviva: Confidential
Growth in cash and profit with strategic delivery
£1,063m
• Strong growth in key areas and operating profit up
1
£725m
17% to £725m £621m
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• Strong Solvency II position, and liquidity of £2.8bn £108m
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immediately 3
14
Strong cash remittances and growing dividend
£1.8bn
• Growing towards our £1.8bn ambition for 2023
£1.4bn
• Interim dividend up 5% to 7.35p in line with our
dividend policy of low to mid single digit DPS
growth over time
H1 21
£1.1bn
15
HY21 financial results highlights
Operating profit 1,132 1,225 (8)% Operating profit 725 621 17%
from continuing operations 725 621 17% UK & Ireland Life 545 822 (34)%
from discontinued operations 407 604 (33)% UK & Ireland GI 191 (50) 482%
IFRS (loss)/profit after tax (198) 874 - Canada 229 129 78%
Aviva Investors 19 9 111%
Strategic investments 55 17 224%
Debt, centre & other (314) (306) (3)%
Strong growth in cash and operating own funds generation underpins confident outlook
16
UK & Ireland Life
17
Annuities & Equity Release stronger in H2
£7.5bn
H2 5.3% 4.4%
IFRS new business margin
H1
H2: £3.7bn £365m New business
£4.7bn
Existing business
£265m
July: £2.2bn £205m
BPA
£109m £2466m
YTD BPA £3.7bn
H1: £3.8bn
H1 21 BPA: £1.6bn £3838m
H1: £2.5bn £160m £156m
Achieved good market share2 despite lower sales1, reflecting Steady contribution from existing business
subdued BPA market in H1. Increased momentum in H2 with
£3.7bn of BPA new business written year to date. HY new business profit impacted by volumes and low spreads and
weighting of illiquid asset origination toward H2.
Equity release sales1 up 43% to £356m as we adapted to operate
more effectively in a lockdown
All footnotes on pages 48-49
18
Strong growth in S&R net flows driven by workplace and
adviser platform
AUM and flows Savings & Retirement AUM and profit
£73m £73m
£141bn
£7.8bn £141bn
£5.2bn
£113bn £39bn Operating profit
£128bn £30bn
Platforms
£89bn Workplace
£71bn
IPP
£12bn £13bn
FY20 H1 21 net flows Market HY21 HY20 HY21
movements
and other
Largest workplace1 provider with 3.9m customers, up 100k in Operating profit of £73m flat period-on-period. From HY21
H1 21 operating profit includes revenue on an actual rather than expected
basis; on a like for like basis operating profit increased by an
Adviser platform continuing to perform strongly with net flows estimated 30% relative to H1 20.
of £2.7bn or annualised 17% of opening assets. AUMup 29% to
£37bn (HY20: £28bn)
All footnotes on pages 48-49
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Significantly improved profitability in Protection & Health
6.6% 7.6%
£107m
£1,292m £1,255m
£81m
New business margin
Sales
VNB up 12% with margins helped by improved mix in Health Operating profit up 32% benefiting from lower costsand positive
(towards retail) and growth in direct Individual Protection with experience
launch of proposition on PCWs
Renewed 5 year single-tie distribution agreement with Connells
Early success in launch of Expert Select proposition supporting
Health customers up 2.5% since FY20
All footnotes on pages 48-49
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General Insurance – UK, Ireland and Canada
Improvement in underlying operating performance Strong growth in GWP and lower COR
Expect COR to be below 94% for the full year as economic activity
continues to return to normal and weather losses in July (in UK and
Canada) offset the benign weather in H1 HY19 HY20 HY21
21
UK GI – continued profitable growth in commercial
UK GI commercial UK GI personal
GWP growth of 16% driven by strong new business growth, rate GWP maintained with successful launch of Aviva brand on PCWs
increases and high retention levels offset by continued disruption of lockdown on intermediated
distribution partners and a soft rating environment in motor
Strong improvement in COR driven by ongoing rate hardening,
improved underlying performance and offset by significant COR improved owing to frequency benefits in motor and an
adverse impacts of COVID-19 in H1 20 improved underlying performance
*(unfavourable)/favourable
22
Canada – an excellent H1 performance
GWP growth of 2% reflects modest increase in policy count with GWP 11% higher driven by new business performance, rate
retention over 90% increases and policy retention
COR remained strong with an underlying improvement to COR improvement reflecting high COVID-19 claims in 2020 and
88.7% but lower positive net contribution from PYD and weather lower catastrophe events
*(unfavourable)/favourable
23
Aviva Investors – improving profitability and flows
24
Utilising all of the divestment cash proceeds
25
Completion of disposals enables return of capital and
further debt reduction
Pro forma Group is financially strong with valuable diversification benefits of c.£2bn
All footnotes on pages 48-49
26
Implementing the capital return
27
Outlook
• Growing annual cash remittances from £1.4bn in 2020 towards our £1.8bn ambition for 2023
Cash
• On track to achieve cash target of over £5bn 2021-23
Efficiency
• On track to meet £300m target in 2022 and continue to focus on top quartile efficiency beyond
• Continued strong growth in GI premiums, with full year COR expected to be <94%
Growth • Continued growth in Savings & Retirement and Aviva Investors
• Momentum in BPAs with sales of £3.7bn year to date and margins set to improve
28
29
Strong progress in transforming performance and
clear focus on where Aviva can win
#1 insurance brand in the UK and the insurer able to serve all customer needs
Aviva Investors with leading capability in ESG and only major insurer to commit to net zero by 2040
Amanda Blanc,
Chief Executive Officer
Jason Windsor,
Chief Financial Officer
31
Investor relations
Coming up … Contact us
13 August Post half year results virtual roadshow Investor relations [email protected]
31 August Jakub Rosochowski +44 (0)7385 382 206
Virtual roadshow
- 1 September
Tegan Gill +44 (0)7800 691 138
21 September Bank of America CEO Conference
Michael O’Hara +44 (0)7387 234 388
11 November Q3 Trading Update
12 January Citi's European Insurance Conference (TBC)
Aviva In Focus – next sessions in Q421 including UK GI Commercial and Protection & Health
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Appendix
33
Balance sheet
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Solvency II position
Cover ratio 1
202% +3pp +13pp (5)pp (13)pp +3pp 203%
OCG £578m
Surplus 1
£m
Own funds1 25,770 908 (230) 32 (744) (568) (1,506) (67) 23,595
35
Solvency II return on capital/equity
HY20 HY21
37
Solvency II regulatory own funds tiering and debt leverage
% of own % of own
HY 2021 HY 2020 % of SCR % of SCR HY21 FY20
Regulatory view funds funds Regulatory view
£m £m HY21 HY20 £m £m
HY21 HY20
Unrestricted Tier 1 20,556 20,096 76 % 71 % 137 % 125 % Solvency II regulatory debt2 6,457 8,316
Restricted Tier 1 980 1,335 4% 5% 7% 8% Senior notes 665 1,112
Tier 2 5,477 6,569 20 % 23 % 37 % 41 % Commercial paper 52 108
Tier 31 116 376 —% 1% 1% 2% Total debt 7,174 9,536
38
Debt profile
Restricted Tier 1
Tier 2
Senior
£502m
6.125%
£400m
5.125%
£258m
6.125% 3.375%
6.125%
£500m 3.875%
4.00% 6.875%
8.25%
£263m
1.875% 4.375%
£270m 4.00%
0.625%
All debt instruments have been presented at optional first call dates at nominal values converted to GBP using 30 June 2021 rates.
39
Earnings per share
40
Operating earnings per share
HY21 HY20
Continuing operations
Adjusted operating profit before tax attributable to shareholders’ profits 725 621
Less
- Tax attributable to shareholders’ profit (168) (105)
- Amount attributable to non-controlling interests (10) (10)
- Coupon payments in respect of DCI (net of tax) — (27)
- Cumulative preference dividends for the year (9) (9)
Operating profit attributable to ordinary shareholders from continuing operations 538 470
Operating profit attributable to ordinary shareholders from discontinued operations 287 447
Operating profit attributable to ordinary shareholders 825 917
Weighted average number of shares 3,927 3,923
Operating earnings per share 21.0p 23.4p
41
Basic earnings per share
HY21 HY20
Continuing operations
Adjusted operating profit attributable to ordinary shareholders 538 470
Adjusting items
- Reclassification of unallocated interest 25 26
- Investment variances, short term fluctuations and economic assumption changes (241) 422
- Impairment of goodwill, joint ventures, associates and other amounts expensed — (14)
- Amortisation and impairment of intangibles acquired in business combinations (25) (26)
- Amortisation and impairment of acquired value of in-force business (153) (86)
- Other (47) 6
Profit attributable to shareholders from continuing operations 97 798
Weighted average number of shares 3,927 3,923
Continuing operations - Basic earnings per share 2.5p 20.3p
Discontinued operations
Adjusted operating profit attributable to ordinary shareholders 287 447
Adjusting items (626) (460)
Profit attributable to ordinary shareholders (242) 785
Weighted average number of shares 3,927 3,923
Basic earnings per share (6.2)p 20.0p
42
Assets
43
Total managed assets
£m £m
Euro-style
Shareholder funds UK With-profits style
Policyholder funds
Participating funds
£m
44
Shareholder assets
Total: £26,326m
£m
Total: £26,145m
1%
45
Shareholder assets – corporate bonds and loans
Total: £32,996m
46
Shareholder assets – Mortgage loans
HY21 mortgage loans total: £21,684m HY21 commercial mortgage total: £7,251m
LTV (%)
Balance
in arrears (£m)
Loan
interest cover (x)
47
Footnotes (1)
Slide Reference Footnote
6 2. References to sales represent present value of new business premiums (PVNBP) for our life business and gross written premiums (GWP) for our general insurance business
3. From continuing operations and excluding cost reduction implementation and IFRS 17 costs
1. From continuing operations and excluding cost reduction implementation and IFRS 17 costs
1. Brand consideration higher for the audience exposed to our campaign compared to consideration in those who have not
9
2. Direct and price comparison websites
1. Subject to regulatory and shareholder approval, completion of disposals and market conditions
11
2. Commencing 13 August 2021
14 2. Subject to regulatory and shareholder approval, completion of disposals and market conditions
17 1. Other includes the impact of capital actions, non-economic assumption changes and other non-operating items
48
Footnotes (2)
Slide Reference Footnote
24 1. Represents Aviva Investors revenue. Further guidance in respect of the APMs used by the Group can be found in the 'Other information' section of the Half Year Report 2021.
25 1. Subject to regulatory and shareholder approval, completion of disposals and market conditions
28 1. From continuing operations and excluding cost reduction implementation and IFRS 17 costs
35 2. Other includes the impact of capital actions, non-economic assumption changes and other non-recurring items
3. Dividends includes £9 million of Aviva plc preference dividends and £10 million of General Accident plc preference dividends, and £549 million for the final dividend in respect of the 2020 financial year
36 1. Management actions and other represents changes in assumptions and modelling, non-recurring items and non-product specific overheads
The corporate bond spread sensitivity is applied such that even though movements vary by rating and duration consistent with the approach in the solvency capital requirement, the weighted average spread movement equals the headline sensitivity.
1.
Fundamental spreads remain unchanged
37
2. An immediate full letter downgrade on 20% of the annuity portfolio credit assets (e.g. from AAA to AA, from AA to A)
1. Tier 3 regulatory own funds at 30 June 2021 consist of £116 million net deferred tax assets (HY20: £107 million). There is no subordinated debt included in Tier 3 regulatory own funds (HY20: £269 million)
38
2. Solvency II regulatory debt consists of Restricted Tier 1 and Tier 2 regulatory own funds, and Tier 3 subordinated debt
49