1153-Article Text-2256-1-10-20210129
1153-Article Text-2256-1-10-20210129
1153-Article Text-2256-1-10-20210129
Doi: 10.14207/ejsd.2021.v10n1p42
Abstract
Fiscal and monetary policy coordination should focus on increasing public welfare and maintaining
long-term macroeconomic stability. This article aims to enhance the theoretical and methodological
basis of fiscal and monetary policy formation and determine the priority areas for improving their
coordination to ensure sustainable economic development. We developed an institutional approach
to study the fiscal-monetary mix. It is advisable to create favorable monetary conditions for fiscal
measures and form a balanced budget for monetary regulation. The authors proposed the structural-
functional model that highlights both fiscal and monetary policies’ impact on aggregate demand. The
results showed no positive effects of general government expenditures on the GDP per capita growth
in 19 emerging economies from 1995 to 2018. The influence of public spending on economic growth
depends on institutions’ quality, the composition of expenditures, and fiscal architecture. The
expediency of increasing the share of productive expenditures that positively affect stimulating the
economy is substantiated. In the long-run, monetary policy should ensure a comprehensive
combination of inflation targeting conditions, the adaptive use of tools to achieve intermediate and
final targets.
1. Introduction
Fiscal and monetary policies’ coordination forms the key prerequisite for
macroeconomic stability and sustainable economic growth. Moreover, the leading social
and economic development objectives are practically unachievable through the monistic
application of fiscal or monetary regulation in the long-run. Over a relatively extended
period, fiscal dominance or monetarism formed the basis for the development policy in
advanced economies. The practical experience confirmed the reasonableness of those
scientific concepts’ convergence in close interaction between fiscal and monetary policy,
especially in a recession. Those policies’ insufficient coherence leads to significant
destructive economic consequences. Well-coordinated fiscal and monetary regulation
measures combined with low quality of institutions deteriorate the public financial policy’s
efficiency. It is essential to apply them harmoniously and complexly, analyzing the relevant
causal relationships. Exercising their functional powers, fiscal and monetary institutions
have crucially different goals. However, the central economic policy aims to increase public
welfare and is familiar to all public policy elements.
|1Head of Department of Finance, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Ukraine
2Department of Finance, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Ukraine
3Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Ukraine
4Faculty of Finance and Accounting, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Ukraine
5Department of Finance, Vinnytsia Institute of Trade and Economics of Kyiv National University of Trade
Fiscal and monetary institutional tools have dissimilar inherent nature and impact on
business entities’ activity and aggregate demand. The institutional independence in the
financial policy measures’ preparation increases its validity, based on various economic
theories. The powers’ redistribution amid the authorities enables to represent significantly
different institutional approaches to the financial levers’ and instruments’ impact on the
economy and determine the principal risks and threats for macroeconomic stability. Fiscal
targets should not significantly undermine price stability, while the excellent monetary
regulator’s control should not provoke a recession. Both fiscal and monetary authorities
should be coordinated over the medium-term to reduce the agents’ uncertainty and the
key macroeconomic indicators’ volatility. Significant attention should be paid to the
relevant instrument’s duration, nature, and lag effects. Specific institutional and operating
arrangements might support the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies.
2. Literature Review
Arestis (2015) pointed out that fiscal policy was a useful tool for macroeconomic
stabilization, especially in close coordination between monetary policy and the other
government financial regulation measures in the field of financial stability. Simionescu et
al. (2017) found that budget expenditures on education and research generally correlated
with the real GDP growth rate, but their impact depended on the national financial
policies’ peculiarities. Afonso and Furceri (2010) empirically studied the fiscal instruments’
impact on economic processes. They concluded that, with an increase in the share of
government revenues in GDP, the simultaneous decrease in real GDP per capita in the
OECD countries occurred. Chugunov et al. (2018) studied the fiscal policy instruments’
impact on economic growth and social development. Authors found that expansionary
fiscal adjustments based on government revenues cuts and spending increases were more
effective than entirely based on spending increases. Significant fiscal consolidation includes
the government’s primary spending reduction.
Mishchenko and Lon (2017) argued that specific monetary preconditions’ creation is the
main task for promoting economic development. Those preconditions were:
macroeconomic stability, the banking system’s credibility, the general budget’s balance, the
low public debt level, and slow and relatively stable inflation. Annicchiarico and Rossi
(2013) highlighted that – applying inflation targeting strategy – the central bank reduced
the general uncertainty and essentially contributed to economic growth. Mollick et al.
(2011) analyzed a sample of 22 advanced and 33 emerging market economies. They proved
that the real GDP per capita growth was accelerated when fully-fledged inflation targeting
has been adopted. Reynard (2007) noted that focusing on the low inflation targets
disregarding the relevant monetary aggregate targets could lead to excessive monetary
restrictions, limiting the real GDP growth potential. Lagutin (2017) proved that fiscal and
monetary policy coordination with its inherent anti-inflationary direction should
encourage economic growth. He highlighted that government economic policy’s main
effects should reduce the volatility of the economic growth’s main economic parameters.
Lukianenko and Dadashova (2016) investigated interconnections between the National
Bank and the government regulation of the economy and distinguished seven phases in
monetary and fiscal policy interconnections.
© 2021 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2021 European Center of Sustainable Development.
44 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2021), 10, 1, 42-52
3. Results
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I. Chugunov et al. 45
budget revenues and expenditures increased by 43.00 % and 29.98 % in 2015 compared
to the previous year. In 2016 it increased by 20.06 % and 22.92 %; in 2017– by 29.89 %
and 26.47 %, in 2018 – by 16.47 % and 18.30 %, and in 2019 – by 8.91% and 9.59%,
respectively. Economic growth enables to adapt the inherent fiscal system’s institutional
architectonics, aiming to increase the overall resources efficiency. The budget funds’
effectiveness and rational use significantly matter to optimize the expenditures’ structure
considering the consumer goals’ proclamation and the investment demand stimulation. In
emerging market economies, a sharp boost in public spending does not affect the rise in
their productive component due to low fiscal policy’s capacity to generate economic
development incentives. Regarding the long-term budget planning, the key budget
indicators’ relatively moderate growth rate reduces the fiscal mechanism’s impact on the
increased prices.
We examined the relationship between public spending and the real GDP per capita
growth in the sample of 19 emerging economies over the 1995–2018 period. Although
some of the observed the EU member-states are now advanced economies, in the mid-
1990s and the early 2000s, they belonged to the group of developing countries. We
founded no positive relationship between the increase in public expenditures and the
output growth rate. Аn endogenous general government expenditure increase of 1 percent
of GDP declined real GDP by roughly 0.08 percent. The determination coefficient R2
(0.432) is insufficient to sustain the high density between the variables mentioned above.
With its public spending-to-GDP ratio exceeding 43.00 % (Figuge 1), Poland had
undoubtedly higher economic growth rates than most of the sampled countries because
of the carried out structural reforms that permanently improved the institutional
environment. Progressive changes in the economy and social sphere have proved the
crucial effect. Belarus also demonstrated a higher economic growth rate than most
observed countries; nevertheless, the public expenditure ratio-to-GDP is tremendous. It
was primarily due to the exogenous financial support, which had created competitive
advantages for specific economic sectors and the rational foreign economic policies to
promote goods both to the post-Soviet and the EU-markets. Belarus made only a slight
correction of its economic model and the de facto command-and-control system’s
extension.
Сhugunov et al. (2019) proved that in Ukraine over the 2001–2018 period, the public debt
ratio-to-GDP was mainly affected by monetary factors (e. g., inflation, and the exchange
rate). Thus, debt sustainability is enormously dependent on the fiscal and monetary
coordination. Even though the safe public debt-to-GDP ratio is equal to 60.0 % according
to the Budget Code, emerging economies’ experience empirically demonstrated that the
above ratio should be reduced to 45.0 %. The safe public debt is managed by a consistent
and balanced fiscal policy’s implementation with a low and stable inflation rate. Hence,
‘inflationary erosion’ should be avoided.
Dynamic equilibrium should be maintained through the endogenous factors’ sustainable
economic development, including financial ones. Monetary and fiscal instruments’
adaptive combination and interaction and institutional architectonics’ improvements
intensify business activity both in the national economies’ innovative and traditional
sectors. Otherwise, significant risks of price and financial instability occur.
© 2021 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2021 European Center of Sustainable Development.
46 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2021), 10, 1, 42-52
Figure. 1. General government expenditure and the real GDP per growth in emerging economies over the 1995–
2018 period, %
Source: based on the IMF and the World Bank data
There are several configuration options for fiscal and monetary policies’ interaction. In
particular, one of the policies, as mentioned above, could be considered as dominant. We
observed monetary policy instruments’ domination. In that case, certain restrictions in
fiscal space should be imposed, and the key policy rate should be regulated to maintain the
safe public debt-to-GDP ratio. In the case of fiscal policy instruments’ domination, no
rules for changing the key interest rate in response to the increase in the public debt-to-
GDP ratio are set. It is also possible to implement passive monetary and fiscal policies. In
that case, an increase in public spending is complemented by a parallel increase in public
revenues in the form of a balanced-budget increase; the key interest rate is regulated only
in response to the price level changes. The last scenario involves the simultaneous
implementation of active monetary and fiscal policies. In such circumstances, the central
bank focuses on achieving price stability, while fiscal institutions do not react sharply to
the public debt-to-GDP ratio’s situational fluctuation. Meanwhile, fiscal institutions retain
functional powers to conduct counter-cyclical measures in case of justified need.
The central bank can carry out monetary expansion while the central government
maintains and intensifies economic growth. Budget expenditures have a significantly
different impact on real GDP dynamics. That is due to the balance between productive
and unproductive public spending, the quality of fiscal institutions, and the GDP
redistribution level through the budget system. Thus, fiscal policy essentially affects the
macroeconomic process.
The actual consumer inflation is affected by several factors, including monetary. The latter
is directly controlled by the central bank, even if fiscal stimuli were not implemented. Fiscal
and other non-monetary factors influence inflation as well. Public financial policy is
crucially dependent on the economic agents’ expectations. The agents link a significant
increase in the deficit and budget expenditures – while fiscal expansion measures are
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I. Chugunov et al. 47
© 2021 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2021 European Center of Sustainable Development.
48 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2021), 10, 1, 42-52
principle for short-term expenditures preparation. The Great Recession crucially impacted
the development and interaction concepts between fiscal and monetary policies in
advanced economies. For instance: the EU, the USA, and Japan, etc. The tight
coordination between financial measures and their focus on impetus creation aimed to
restore positive economic dynamics. In the short-run, the public financial policy’s priorities
were to foster aggregate demand and employment. Responding to the recession challenges,
the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (2009) primarily provided a tax and budget
initiatives package equaled to $ 787 billion and then increased to $ 831 billion. Both
temporary tax benefits and the taxpayer burden reductions amounted to 34.7 % in the
entire fiscal stimuli structure over the period, while the rest related to budget expenditures
regulation. The predominant expenditures share was aimed to expand the consumption;
nearly 30 % of the increased public spending was directed to the infrastructure’s and the
public health system’s development. The public financial policy’s components allowed to
maintain price stability for the five years since implementing the American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act: the average CPI equaled to 1.60 %. Meanwhile, over the 2009–
2013 period, the real annual GDP per capita growth rate was 0.27%.
The expenditures multiplier is an important indicator for assessing the impact of fiscal
policy on economic dynamics. The aforementioned financial indicator has a rather
complex origin. Firstly, the budget expenditures’ compositional structure crucially matters.
It is necessary to identify their inherent components characterized by the highest positive
effect on economic development. The differentiation of the expenditures in the context
of their productivity should consider the respective expenditures ratios to GDP and the
general spending. The current fiscal policy’s functions and tasks include the public debt
service, social stability esurience, budget funding, etc. Secondly, the particular instrument
(the tax bases’ and rates’ expanding, increase in the budget deficit, etc.) – used to finance
additional expenditures – significantly matters. Finally, fiscal and monetary policies
interconnection’s modification affects both the public expenditure multiplier and inflation
level. Under conditions of passive monetary policy, both the expenditure multiplier and
the consumer price index are significantly high. If the key interest rate is low, especially for
advanced economies, the multiplier will be significantly higher than in emerging markets.
Another monetary impact-factor on the fiscal stimuli is the exchange rate regime. Under
conditions of a pegged exchange rate, the spending multiplier is significantly higher than
in the other cases.
Monetary policy has two main objectives depending on the time-scale; in the long-run, the
aim is low inflation persistence. In the short- and medium-term, it forms the conditions to
foster economic growth. There are principal differences in defining the monetary policy’s
role at the different business cycle phases. The neoclassical-Keynesian synthesis
recommends the central bank to fix the interest rate, while the respective authorities adapt
stimuli or consolidation to the cyclical fluctuations. Monetarists argue that the easing
policies (aimed to regulate the key interest rate) contribute to the real sector’s business
activity fluctuations due to the money supply’s pro-cyclical changes.
Arestis and Sawyer (2004) concluded that the approach to the monetary policy’s regulatory
role for economic development has essentially changed over the past decades. Previously,
the critical role belonged to the money supply instruments. In current conditions, the
central bank’s policy possesses a decisive place. The monetary policy’s primary goal is to
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I. Chugunov et al. 49
achieve price stability, quantified by the relevant medium-term indicator. That policy
represents aggregate demand one: a change in the key interest rate impacts aggregate
demand and, consequently, inflation. Thus, the monetary policy effectively controls
demand-pull inflation.
Price stability is one of the monetary policy’s primary goals in most advanced and emerging
market economies. Huizinga and Mishkin (1986) pointed out that the relevant policy’s
methods differed significantly from the chosen monetary regime. An appropriate
monetary regime has an essential impact on policy-making, allowing strategic management
decisions, and performing operational tasks. The monetary policy’s targets are inflation,
exchange rate, money supply, and GDP. A discretionary monetary regime exists. It does
not apply to the long-term price stability quantitative benchmark. Still, it involves
preventive inflation control decisions, regarding primarily the GDP deflator index’s
manipulations under socio-economic conditions. The central bank should be highly
credible and resultative over a long time to apply the above regime. Otherwise, inflation
expectations will critically rise, declining the central bank’s efficiency.
The reserve requirements hugely impact the money supply, absorbing or increasing
liquidity in the banking sector, depending on the economic situation. Thus, credit control
affects the dynamics of aggregate demand and GDP. Moreover, the central banks’ reserve
requirements represent a mechanism to ensure the commercial financial institutions’
obligations to their customers, providing financial stability. Hence, significant sanctions
are provided for the established reserve requirements’ infraction. Open market operations
are a universal monetary policy instrument. Buying or selling government bonds, the
central bank ensures its operational objectives and maintains a sufficient banking system’s
liquidity. In advanced economies with a significantly developed financial market, monetary
regulation is more flexible and resultative than in emerging. If the central bank owns a
large domestic government bond package, the government securities lack of liquidity,
significant debt risks, and particular, fiscal imbalance are predictable.
For open economies in the long-run, to ensure adequate financial regulation, monetary
policy should combine: a) floating exchange rate (in various modifications), b) inflation
targeting, c) adaptive application of institutional instruments (interest rate, monetary
aggregates, etc.) to achieve intermediate and final targets. Monetary policy vitally influences
macroeconomic dynamics, but the nature of its impact is quite heterogeneous. The issue
of assessing the relationship between the exchange rate and GDP or the exchange rate and
inflation remains relevant. On the one hand, theoretical statements declare that the
national currency’s gradual devaluation contributes to strengthening the economy’s export
potential, simultaneously raising the prices for imported goods. That fact can essentially
intensify both the development and implementation of import-substitution programs,
accelerating economic growth. Due to the economy’s low innovative profile and its
inherent commodity nature, the devaluation’s positive effect for the exporters is short-
term does not encourage innovations in the real sector. The import-substitution programs
are generally short-scaled because the imported goods are mostly complete-cycled and
science-intensive ones. Rather significant increase in the technological equipment’s costs
slows down the domestic enterprises’ revitalization, deteriorating their competitiveness.
Easterly et al. (1994) profoundly studied the technologies’ – primarily borrowed – impact
on economic growth and the respective public financial policy’s role. Represented by a
© 2021 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2021 European Center of Sustainable Development.
50 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2021), 10, 1, 42-52
shadow foreign exchange market and double quotes for the different economic agents or
the other technology intensification’s restrictions, unjustified monetary policy harms
economic growth.
The prices – increased due to the domestic market’s devaluation – decline the economic
agents’ purchasing power and aggregate demand and change the structure of consumption
with the effect of income redistribution from economic agents with rather high-propensity
to the low-propensity ones, declining the macroeconomic indicators. Devaluation with
essentially low exports’ and imports’ price elasticity might deteriorate the trade balance and
provoke an economic recession.
Both fiscal and monetary policy measures affecting aggregate demand should be
considered in the inseparable unity, taking the financial instruments’ interactions into
account. We propose a structural and functional model (Figure 2) of fiscal and monetary
policies’ impact on aggregate demand.
where
𝑡𝑎𝑥𝛼 – tax policy effects on inter-governmental relations;
𝑒𝑥𝑝𝛼 – public spending effects on fiscal decentralization;
𝑡𝑎𝑥𝛾 – tax policy effects on the fiscal deficit;
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I. Chugunov et al. 51
𝑒𝑥𝑝𝛾 – public spending effects on the fiscal deficit and public debt;
𝑡𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑝 – tax policy influence on aggregate demand;
𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑖𝑚𝑝 – public spending influence on aggregate demand;
𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑝 – interest rate policy impact on aggregate demand;
𝑒𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑝 – exchange rate policy impact on aggregate demand.
Based on a comprehensive financial instruments combination, that model considers the
compositional structure effects, time lags, economic changes, and the financial system’s
institutional transformations. The model’s application allows ensuring the public financial
policy’s adequacy and adaptability to the economic cycle’s relevant stages. It also improves
the budget revenues, expenditures, and inter-governmental relations regulation’s
efficiency, enhances fiscal deficit, and debt management supports both fiscal and monetary
policies’ coordination.
4. Conclusions
The government financial strategy provides variable scenarios for the regulation
measures’ preparation and implementation based on the macroeconomic trends and
objectives at the appropriate social development stage. The prudently coordinated
application of fiscal and monetary instruments to maintain macroeconomic stability and
enhance its endogenous development factors is appropriate. The modern financial
strategy’s priorities combine favorable fiscal, monetary, and investment conditions for
sustainable economic growth with rational institutional constraints. It is vital to coordinate
the central bank’s and the fiscal authorities’ actions due to the institutional approach,
improving their interaction’s transparency and efficiency. The powers’ devotion allows
representing several approaches to the financial instruments’ impact on economic
development over the long-run. We founded no positive relationship between the increase
in public expenditures and the output growth rate. Аn endogenous general government
expenditures increase of 1 percent of GDP declined real GDP by roughly 0.08 percent.
The budget system institutional architectonics’ functional adaptability should be
strengthened to increase government expenditures efficiency and to stimulate investment
demand. Both fiscal policy’s improved principles in terms of the long-term planning
instruments and somewhat moderate key budget indicators reduce the financial
mechanism’s impact on price dynamics.
Fiscal and monetary policy coordination aims to achieve moderate inflation, maintaining
sustainable economic growth, debt sustainability, and balanced public finances. If an active
monetary and fiscal policy is implemented, the central bank’s activities are focused on
ensuring price stability. The fiscal policy’s priority is associated with favorable conditions’
creation for economic growth through the appropriate regulation of revenues,
expenditures, and budget deficit. Depending on the actual conditions and the institutional
environment’s quality, the government should build financial policy instruments’ optimal
configuration. In order to intensify economic activity, it is vital to conduct moderate
monetary expansion with the implementation of a balanced fiscal policy, except for
extraordinary economic cases.
© 2021 The Authors. Journal Compilation © 2021 European Center of Sustainable Development.
52 European Journal of Sustainable Development (2021), 10, 1, 42-52
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