Chapter 10 Credit Risk I Individual Loan Risk
Chapter 10 Credit Risk I Individual Loan Risk
Chapter 10 Credit Risk I Individual Loan Risk
4. The term 'loan rating' refers to the process of individual loans being given credit rating by:
A. rating agencies dependent on the lender's credit assessment
B. rating agencies independent of the lender's credit assessment
C. lenders dependent on a credit rating agency's credit assessment
D. lenders independent of a credit rating agency's credit assessment
5. The term 'asset-backed loan' refers to a loan that is backed by a:
A. first claim on certain assets of the borrower if default occurs
B. second claim on certain assets of the borrower at maturity
C. first claim on certain assets of the borrower at maturity
D. None of the listed options are correct.
A. 2.70
B. 2.80
C. 2.90
D. 3.00
33. Assume the interest rate in the market for one-year zero-coupon government bonds is i = 8% and the rate for one-year zero-
coupon grade BBB bonds is k = 10.2%. What is the implied probability of repayment on the corporate bond (round to two decimals)?
A. 2.00%
B. 2.04%
C. 97.96%
D. 98.00%
34. Assume the interest rate in the market for one-year zero-coupon government bonds is i = 7.5% and the rate for one-year zero-
coupon grade BB bonds is k = 11.8%. What is the implied probability of default on the corporate bond (round to two decimals)?
A. 3.85%
B. 4.00%
C. 96.00%
D. 96.15%
35. Consider the case of a simple one-period framework. If i = 12.30% and k = 13.87%, what is the risk premium on the corporate
lon (round to two decimals)?
A. 13.87% – 12.30% = 1.57%
B. 13.87% 12.30% = 0.0171 = 1.71%
C. 13.87% / 12.30% = 1.13%
D. The risk premium equals k = 13.87%
36. Consider the case of a simple one-period framework. If i = 12.50%, k = 14.85%, p = 0.98, and g = 0.85 what is the required risk
premium (round to two decimals)?
A. 0.34%
B. 0.35%
C. 0.98%
D. 2.35%
37. Consider the case of ABC Company. The company's marginal probability of default in year 1 is 0.03 and 0.08 in year 2. What is
ABC Company's cumulative default probability (round to two decimals)?
A. 14.00%
B. 11.00%
C. 99.76%
D. 10.76%
38. Assume that i1 = 11% and i2 = 12%, and that k1 = 14.50% and k2 = 16.50%. What is the expected probability of repayment on
the one-year corporate bonds in one year's time (round to two decimals)?
A. 86.99%
B. 81.47%
C. 86.50%
D. 95.34%
39. The current required yields on one- and two-year government bonds are i1 = 12% and i2 = 13%. What are the market's
expectations of the one-year forward rate, f1 (round to two decimals)?
A. 13.50%
B. 14.00%
C. 14.50%
D. 15.00%
40. Assume that f1 = 13.50% and c1 = 17.40%. Which of the following statements is true?
A. The expected default probability of repayment is 96.10%.
B. The expected probability of repayment is 3.32%.
C. The one-year rate expected on corporate securities one year into the future is 13.50%.
D. The current one-year rate on corporate securities is 17.40%.
41. Assume a $500 000 loan has a duration of 2.5 years. The current interest rate level is 10% and a sudden change in the credit
premium of 1% is expected. Further assume that the one-year income on the loan is $2500. What is the loan's RAROC (round to two
decimals)?
A. 10.00%
B. 11.00%
C. 22.00%
D. 50.00%
42. In the context of the KMV Credit Monitor Model, the market value of a risky loan made by a lender to a borrower can be
expressed as:
A. F(r) = Be–i/r[(1/d)N(h1) + N(h2)]
B. F(r) = Be–ir[(1/d)N(h1) + N(h2)]
C. F(r) = Be–ir[(1/d)– N(h1) + N(h2)]
D. F(r) = Be–ir[(1/d)N(h1) N(h2)]
44. Assume that B = $200 000, r = 1 year, i = 7%, d = 0.9, N(h1) = 0.174120 and N(h2) = 0.793323. Using Moody's KMV Credit
Monitor model, what is the current market value of the loan (round to two decimals)?
A. $184 015.32
B. $186 478.64
C. $200 000.00
D. $214 000.00
45. Assume that B = $200 000, r = 1 year, i = 7%, d = 0.9, N(h1) = 0.174120 and N(h2) = 0.793323. Using Moody's KMV Credit
Monitor model, what is the required risk premium on the loan (round to two decimal places)?
A. 0.13%
B. 0.91%
C. 1.64%
D. 6.30%
50. The linear probability model uses:
A. forecasted data, such as predicted future prices, as inputs into a model to explain repayment experience on old loans
B. current indices, such as consumer price index, as inputs into a model to explain repayment experience on old loans
C. past data, such as financial ratios, as inputs into a model to explain repayment experience on old loans
D. None of the listed options are correct.
73. Explain the major concept of Altman's linear discriminant model. What would you consider to be the major
disadvantages of this model?
Discriminant models divide borrowers into high or low default risk classes contingent on their observed characteristics (Xj). Similar to
linear probability models, linear discriminant models use past data as inputs into a model to explain repayment experience on old loans.
The relative importance of the factors used in explaining past repayment performance then forecasts whether the loan falls into the high
or low default class.
In Altman's linear discriminant model, the indicator variable Z is the overall measure of the default risk classification of a borrower. This in
turn depends on the values of various financial ratios of the borrower (Xj) and the weighted importance of these ratios based on the past
observed experience of defaulting versus non-defaulting borrowers derived from a discriminant analysis model. According to Altman's
credit scoring model, a score of less than 1.81 would place the potential borrower into a high default risk category. Any score above 2.99
is regarded as a low default risk, while a score between 1.81 and 2.99 is in the 'zone of ignorance', where a borrower may or may not
default.
Several criticisms have been levied against linear discriminant models. First, the models identify only two extreme categories of risk:
default or no default. The real world considers several categories of default severity. Second, the relative weights of the variables may
change over time. Further, the actual variables to be included in the model may change over time. Third, these models ignore important,
hard-to-quantify factors that may play a crucial role in the default or no default decision. For example, the reputation of the borrower and
the nature of long-term borrower–lender relationships could be important borrower-specific characteristics, as could macroeconomic
factors, such as the phase of the business cycle. Fourth, no centralised database on defaulted business loans for proprietary and other
reasons exists. This constrains the ability of many FIs to use traditional credit scoring models (and quantitative models in general) for
larger business loans.
74. Explain the concept of RAROC and the major role RAROC models play in credit risk analysis.
The RAROC (risk-adjusted return on capital) model is a popular model used to evaluate (and price) credit risk based on market data.
The essential idea behind RAROC is that rather than evaluating the actual or contractually promised annual ROA on a loan—that is, net
interest and fees divided by the amount lent—the lending officer balances expected interest and fee income against the loan's expected
risk. Thus, rather than dividing annual loan income by assets lent, it is divided by some measure of asset (loan) risk, or what is often
called 'capital at risk', since (unexpected) loan losses have to be written off against an FI's capital:
One version of the RAROC model uses the duration model to measure the change in the value of the loan for given changes or shocks
in credit quality. The change in credit quality (DR) is measured by finding the change in the spread in yields between Treasury Bonds and
corporate bonds of the same risk class on the loan. The actual value chosen is the highest change in yield spread for the same maturity
or duration value assets. In this case, DLN represents the change in loan value or the change in capital for the largest reasonable
adverse changes in yield spreads. The actual equation for DLN looks very similar to the duration equation.
A loan is approved only if RAROC is sufficiently high relative to a benchmark return on capital (ROE) for the FI, where ROE measures
the return shareholders require on their equity investment in the FI. The idea here is that a loan should be made only if the risk-adjusted
return on the loan adds to the FI's equity value as measured by the ROE required by the FI's shareholders. Alternatively, if the RAROC
on an existing loan falls below an FI's RAROC benchmark, the lending officer should seek to adjust the loan's terms to make it 'profitable'
again. Therefore, RAROC serves as both a credit risk measure and a loan pricing tool for the FI manager.
75. What are the major ideas behind KMV's Credit Monitor model?
The KMV model uses an option pricing model (OPM) approach to extract the implied market value of assets and the asset volatility of a
given firm's assets. The KMV model uses the value of equity in a firm (from a shareholder's perspective) as equivalent to holding a call
option on the assets of the firm (with the amount of debt borrowed acting similar to the exercise price of the call option). From this
approach, and the link between the volatility of the market value of the firm's equity and that of its assets, it is possible to derive the asset
volatility (risk) of any given firm and the market value of the firm's assets. Using the implied value of the asset volatility and the market
value of assets, the likely distribution of possible asset values of the firm relative to its current debt obligations and the expected default
frequency (EDF) can be calculated over the next year. The EDF reflects the probability that the market value of the firm's assets will fall
below the promised repayments on its short-term debt liabilities in one year. If the value of a firm's assets falls below its debt liabilities, it
can be viewed as being economically insolvent.