Dr. Ps Dr. Ps Rana Rana Ssaa Aa

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Urbanisation in India

Challenges and Opportunities


Guided Corridor development

A Model
M d l for
f
Future Urban Development
Dr. PS
S Rana
a a
Chairman,
India Infrasture and UrbanDevelopement co. Pvt. Ltd.
India : Urbanization Scenario
Decadal Growth Rate of Population (1991-2001) Urban: 31.2% Rural 17.9%

1500
1350 M

1200
1 March, 2001, 1027 M
900

600 459 M
366.3 (34%)
330 M 361 285 (31%)
218 (27 8%)
(27.8%)
300
(25.7%)
50 M (16%) 62(17%)

0
1947 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021

Growth in urbanisation in India has been very slow


in the past few decades
Why Urbanisation?

„ Economic 60
Development and
urbanization are 50

P.C.SDP (In Rs,000


inextricably linked (A 40
h h correlation
high l off 30
+0.83 exists between
level of urbanisation 20
and P.C.NSDP) 10
„ Contribution to GDP- 0
60% 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00
„ Productivity: Urban % of urbanisation
P C Income is 3
P.C. 3.85
85
times higher than
Rural P.C. Income
„ Generator of Wealth
and Employment
„ Improves
Competitiveness
Urbanisation in India –Future
Future
Outlook

„ Threshold level of Urbanisation has


been crossed
„ Push by Economic reforms
„ Globalisation as accelerator of
urbanisation
Urbanisation in India will be much faster now;
its preferred and desirable for development.
Primate City Syndrome
„ Concentration of urban population in
one or few cities
„ Growth of Cities
Total Population 2%
Urban Population 3%
Large
g Cities 4%
Slum Population 9%
Slum Population in large cities 30%+
Employment In Agriculture Sector
- Scenario in Developed Countries

Mean for
2003-2007
2003 2007 USA Russia Japan UK Canada Developed
Countries

Total economically
active population in
agriculture (1000
2791 7374 2172 494 353 705
inhab)

% of Total Population 0.94 5.18 1.70 0.83 1.11 3

% of rural population 4.82 19.28 4.92 7.52 5.79 12


Employment In Agriculture Sector
- Scenario in Developing Countries

Mean for
Developing
2003-2007 India Brazil China Egypt Countries

Total economically
y active
population in agriculture
(1000 inhab) 276687 12134 510010 8594 102044
% of Total Population 25.59 6.72 38.61 11.71 29

% of rural population 35.80 40.93 64.18 20.23 47


The Need for Planned
Urbanization

„ The primary sector employment cannot


sustain more than 10% of labour force (4%
of the total population).
„ Non farm employment to take care of 90%
Non-farm
of the labor force.
„ This
h is possible
bl through
h h integration off
economic and social infrastructure .
„ Desirable size of a town is 1 to 3 lacs.
The Need for New Towns
„ India needs 6000 towns with >1 lac
pop.
„ 423 towns & cities (> 1 lac population):
60 3% of urban population.
60.3% population
„ 4728 towns (< 1 lac population):
39 7% of urban population.
39.7% population
„ Some of these urban areas could be
upgraded
d d as integrated
d towns.
Long Term Population Projections
by UN for INDIA
Population Projections
ons

2000
1531 4
1531.4
n in Millio

1458.4 1371.7
1500 1304.5
1016.9
1000
opulation

500 357.6

0
Po

1950 2000 2050 2100 2200 2300

Year

UNDP Website
Concept: Regional Planning

Towns to accommodate 70%


Suburbs upto 30 min 20%
Villages 10%
Atleast one town within 60 min
min.
Overall Country Scenario
„ Area 32.56 lac sq.km
„ Total population(2001) 1,027,015,247
„ F t
Future Population
P l ti 1531.4 million
(2050)
„ Urban 1148.6 million
Population(@75%)
„ Required Urban Area 114860 sq.km.
to accommodate 1148
million population
Just 3.5 percent of the country’s geographical area is
sufficient to accommodate the projected urban population
Selection of a Location
„ Location should be in the vicinity of a
growing city and having good
connectivity.
„ Connectivity by road as well as by rail
will improve the potential considerably.
„ A link-corridor connecting the main
city
i to a near-byb town.
„ Availability of water.
Use of Existing Rail-corridors
„ The most cost effective, efficient and environmental
friendly transport system is provided by having
„ rail as the basic mode and;
„ walk, cycle, rickshaws etc. feeders.
„ Development of new rail-based transportation
network in the existing cities requires substantial
capital investment.
„ On the other hand, developing new urban centres
along
l the
h existing raill corridors
d prove cost effective.
ff
Infrastructure Spinal Corridor

CITY CITY

100 KM

RAILWAY
EXPRESSWAY
PIPELINE
POWERLINE
COMMUNICATION LINE
Satellite Towns Vs Corridor Concept

CITY CITY
Power

Industry
Bus
Food processing
Hospital

Office

Railway Station? ViIlages


g

Bus
Telecom Hotel
School Modern
To Nearest City
y Housing

Cut Development Costs by Rurbanising – Transforming


A Loop of Villages into a Low-cost Virtual Town –
With Potential To Grow Fast Courtesy: Prof Indresan
Self Contained Townships Along
Linear Rail Corridor
Self Contained Townships Along Linear Rail
Corridor – Option 1

5 KMS
1-1.5 KMS
Potential Corridors – NCR
ROHTAK

HINTERLAND

DELHI SONIPAT PANIPAT


Potential Corridors – NCR
PANIPAT

ROHTAK
SONIPAT
MEERUT

HAPUR

GHAZIABAD

GURGAON
FARIDABAD
REWARI
khurja

ALWAR ALIGARH
MATHURA
Potential Corridors - Maharashtra

„ Area
A 308,000
308 000 sq.km.
k
„ Total Population (2001) 96,752,247
„ Future Population 18 crores
„ Urban Population (@75%) 13 5 crores (approx.)
13.5 (approx )
„ Required Corridor Area
to accommodate 13.5
13 5 crore
population (assuming 10,000
persons per sq.km.)
sq km ) 13 500 sq.km
13,500 sq km
POTENTIAL CORRIDORS OF
MAHARASHTRA
Potential Corridors - Maharashtra

„ Existing Potential Corridor in the state :


2610 km
„ Developing 50% of the potential corridor
will be adequate
q to accommodate the future
growth of the urban population
Potential Corridors - Andhra
Pradesh

„ Area 2,75,068 sq.km.


„ Total
o Population
opu o ((2001)) 7,57,27,541
7, 7, 7,
„ Future Population 14 crores
„ Urban Population
Pop lation (@75%) 10 5 crores (approx.)
10.5 (appro )
„ Required Corridor Area
to accommodate 10.5
10 5 crore
population (assuming 10,000
persons per sq.km.)
sq km ) 10 500 sq.km
10,500 sq km
Potential Corridors - Andhra Pradesh
Potential Corridors - Andhra
Pradesh

„ Existing Potential Corridor in the state:


2815 km
„ Developing 37% of the potential corridor
will be adequate
q to accommodate the future
growth of the urban population
Potential Corridors - Gujarat

„ Area 1,96,024 sq.km.


„ Total Population (2001) 5 05 96 992
5,05,96,992
„ Future Population 9.6 crores
„ U b Population
Urban P l ti (@75%) 7 2 crores (approx.)
7.2 ( )
„ Required Corridor Area
t accommodate
to d t 7.2
7 2 crore
population (assuming 10,000
persons per sq.km.)
k ) 7 200 sq.km
7,200 k
Potential Corridors - Gujarat
Potential Corridors - Gujarat
„ Existing Potential Corridor in the state :
1940 km
„ Developing 37% of the potential corridor
will be adequate
q to accommodate the future
growth of the urban population
Economic Plan
„ Identifies local resources / skills and
activities

„ Identifies two or three key investors


as anchors

„ Identifies industry ancilliarization /


outsourcing / forward-backward
forward backward
linkages
DEVELOPMENT CONCEPT -
OUTLINE
INTEGRATED DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL BELT

Coastal Corridor
Thank you

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