A

Project Report

On

“A study on Covid 19 cases in India using Python”

At

“On Desk Research”

By

Umesh Satyanarayan Soni

Under the guidance of

Dr. Prajakta Warale

Submitted to

Savitribai Phule Pune University

In partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the degree of

M.B.A

Batch – 2019 - 2021

Through

Rajgad Institute of Management Research and Development, Pune - 411043

 Annexure B

Institute’s Certificate will be issued by you guide, after completion of SIP.

 DECLARATION OF STUDENT

(CERTIFICATE OF ORIGINALITY/DECLARATION)

This is to declare that I have carried out this project work myself in partial fulfillment of the
MBA Program of Savitribai Phule Pune University.

The work is original, has not been copied from anywhere else and not been submitted to any
other University/Institute for an award of any degree/diploma.

Date Signature

Place Name
 DECLARATION OF GUIDE

This is to certify that the work incorporated in this Project Report “A study on Covid 19 cases in India
using Python” submitted by Umesh S. Soni is his original work and completed under my
Guidance. Material obtained from other sources has been duly acknowledged in the Project

Report.

DATE SIGNATURE OF GUIDE

PLACE
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

It gives me great privilege to show my deepest sense of gratitude to those people without whom
this project would have never been complete. These people, not only mentored me but they
also made it a point that this project becomes a classy piece of study and its only their creative
ideas, their mentoring, their constructive criticism and guidance that has made the project
really meaningful and a well thought out piece of literature.

It’s a privilege for me to express my deepest sense of gratitude to Dr. Prajakta Warale, my
Faculty Guide from Rajgad Institute of Management Research and Development, my mentor
and undoubtedly the mainstay behind this project. It has been an out and out honor to work
under him. His versatile viewpoint and understanding of the subject matter, his guidance’s, his
constructive criticisms and above all the level of motivation and faith he showed really made me
to stay focused and work logically during the course of the study. I sincerely thank our
honorable director, Dr. D.B. Bharati for their valuable support.

Thank you all

Umesh Soni
 Table of Content
Chapter Name of the Chapter Page
Number Number
1 Executive Summary 7
a. Abstract
b. Objectives of the Study
c. Scope of Study
d. Limitations of the Study

2 Introduction 11
a. Introduction to corona virus
b. Symptoms
c. Prevention
3 Research Methodology 15

4 Theoretical Concepts 17

5 Data Analysis & Interpretation 31

6 Learning of Students 53
(Findings)
7 Suggestions 54

8 Conclusion 55

References 56
 CHAPTER 1

1.1 Abstract

This project report is entitled to “A study on covid 19 cases in India using python“. Coronavirus disease
(COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus. The virus that causes
COVID-19 is mainly transmitted through droplets generated when an infected person coughs, sneezes,
or exhales. These droplets are too heavy to hang in the air, and quickly fall on floors or surfaces.

You can be infected by breathing in the virus if you are within close proximity of someone who has
COVID-19, or by touching a contaminated surface and then your eyes, nose or mouth.

Study will involve a dummy data set on covid cases based on that I will perform some data science
operations on that dataset and will generate multiple reports, graphs to show the data analysis like state
wise cases(i.e. active ,recovered , deceased cases) .Then how many are hospitalized or home quarantine
patients.

From this analysis we can identify how corona virus has affected India.
1.2 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

1. To study and analyze the covid -19 data using python

2. To predict number of positive cases at year end using predictive analytics
3. To compare and statewise cases of covid-19 using python
4. To identify how covid is affecting India financial growth as India using descriptive analytics
5. To draw a comparison among different states based on covid cases in India
1.3 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

 The present study is contained to whole India.

 This study is considering all the states in India who has having active cases, recovered
cases and death cases for covid.

 The study utilizes aggregate data (data set) rather than firm –level data.

 The analysis of the study was based on the current dummy data set.
 1.4 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY

1. The research study will be conducted in limited states only who has having covid cases.

2. Time will be a major constraint. The research could not be carried out thoroughly because
of limited time and limited data set.

3. The research could have been better carried out with the help of a larger sample size,
covering more graphical areas.

4. The complete research is based on dummy data set for covid cases.
 CHAPTER 2: Introduction

2.1 Introduction to Corona Virus

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by a newly discovered coronavirus.

Most people infected with the COVID-19 virus will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and
recover without requiring special treatment. Older people, and those with underlying medical problems
like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely to develop
serious illness.

The best way to prevent and slow down transmission is be well informed about the COVID-19 virus,
the disease it causes and how it spreads. Protect yourself and others from infection by washing your
hands or using an alcohol based rub frequently and not touching your face.

The COVID-19 virus spreads primarily through droplets of saliva or discharge from the nose when an
infected person coughs or sneezes, so it’s important that you also practice respiratory etiquette (for
example, by coughing into a flexed elbow).

At this time, there are no specific vaccines or treatments for COVID-19. However, there are many
ongoing clinical trials evaluating potential treatments. WHO will continue to provide updated
information as soon as clinical findings become available.
Coronaviruses (CoV) are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to
more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV) and Severe Acute
Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been
previously identified in humans.

Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people. Detailed
investigations found that SARS-CoV was transmitted from civet cats to humans and MERS-CoV from
dromedary camels to humans. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet
infected humans.Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of
breath and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute
respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and even death.

Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth
and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with
anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.
2.2 Symptoms

COVID-19 affects different people in different ways. Most infected people will develop mild to
moderate illness and recover without hospitalization.

Most common symptoms:

 Fever.
 Dry cough.
 Tiredness.

Less common symptoms:

 Aches and pains.

 Sore throat.
 Diarrhea.
 Conjunctivitis.
 Headache.
 Loss of taste or smell.
 A rash on skin, or discoloration of fingers or toes.

Serious symptoms:

 Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath.

 Chest pain or pressure.
 Loss of speech or movement.

Seek immediate medical attention if you have serious symptoms. Always call before visiting your
doctor or health facility.

People with mild symptoms who are otherwise healthy should manage their symptoms at home.

On average it takes 5–6 days from when someone is infected with the virus for symptoms to show,
however it can take up to 14 days.
2.3 Prevention

To prevent infection and to slow transmission of COVID-19, do the following:

 Wash your hands regularly with soap and water, or clean them with alcohol-based hand rub.
 Maintain at least 1 meter distance between you and people coughing or sneezing.
 Avoid touching your face.
 Cover your mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing.
 Stay home if you feel unwell.
 Refrain from smoking and other activities that weaken the lungs.
 Practice physical distancing by avoiding unnecessary travel and staying away from large groups of
people.
 CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1 Research Problem

As we all know about corona virus i.e. covid 19. It has spread all over the world in which America is
having highest number for patients after that Russia is there and after Russia India is at third position for
having highest corona virus patients. Every country is working on developing vaccine for the virus. In
India we are going under second human trial by bharat biotech and Russia has developed first vaccine
which is in third phase human trial. They have created 20000 dose first slot for worker also.

My purpose of study is to analyze how corona virus is spreading in India in different states. What is the
current condition of hospitals, health care centers in rural and urban? How different age people are
affected by corona virus.

3.2 Methods of data collections

a) Primary Data :
Primary data is the new or fresh data collected from the personal observations about corona
virus spread in India. I have collected all the data by personally observing the day-to-day work.

b) Secondary Data :
The secondary data are collected through the internet. There are multiple website which are
providing data sets for corona virus. I have downloaded the data sets for corona status in India,
age group details, testing details from Kaggel.
Kaggel :

Kaggle, a subsidiary of Google LLC, is an online community of data scientists and machine learning
practitioners. Kaggle allows users to find and publish data sets, explore and build models in a web-based
data-science environment, work with other data scientists and machine learning engineers, and enter
competitions to solve data science challenges.

Kaggle got its start in 2010 by offering machine learning competitions and now also offers a public data
platform, a cloud-based workbench for data science, and Artificial Intelligence education. Its key personnel
were Anthony Goldbloom and Jeremy Howard. Nicholas Gruen was founding chair succeeded by Max
Levchin. Equity was raised in 2011 valuing the company at $25 million. On 8 March 2017, Google
announced that they were acquiring Kaggle.

Kaggle allows users to find and publish data sets, explore and build models in a web-based data-science
environment, work with other data scientists and machine learning engineers, and enter competitions to solve
data science challenges.

3.3 Research Design

This research is descriptive in nature. The descriptive method of research design helps researchers plan and
carry out descriptive studies, designed to provide rich descriptive details about people, places and other
phenomena. This type of research is often associated with anthropology, sociology and psychology, but
researchers in other fields, such as education, use it. The descriptive method often involves extensive
observation and note-taking, as well as in-depth narrative.
 CHAPTER 4: THEORETICAL CONCEPTS

4.1 Review of Related Literature

COVID-19 was firstly observed in December, 2019 so there is less literature available on the
Infection. Also, the currently available treatments for the COVID-19 include the ventilation and
Intensive care. WHO has already accelerated the R&D to accelerate the vaccines, diagnostics and
therapeutics. (Ralph et al. 2020) explained the role of human to human transmission, vaccine
readiness and cases related to travel history in the n-CoV infection.

Review 1:
Year: 2020
Research Title: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Current literature and status in India

Description: COVID-19 disease outbreak was started in the December, 2019 in the Wuhan city of
China which is also known as the largest transportation hub of China. During the spring festival of
China the situation become epidemic. Soon, the virus is imported to many regions including the low
income countries. Till now, 234073 infected reported cases of the COVID-19 in the world with the
total of 9840 deaths (March 20, 2020). The common symptoms of the COVID-19 are the cough,
high fever, sore throat, fatigue and breathlessness.
The disease is found to be mild in most of the people, some of cases reported to the pneumonia also
with multi organ dysfunction and acute ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). It is found that
the incubation period for the infection is 2-14 days which is usually 4 days in maximum of cases.
India has reported 283 cases of COVID-19 infections till now with 4 deaths. India is still at stage 2
on local transmission as per WHO report 60. WHO reported 60 clearly stated that there is no
community transmission occurred in India yet which can be prevented by the avoiding mass
gathering and proper screening of the people. Govt. of India has taken many initiatives to minimize
the spread of COVID-19 infection in the country. The infection rate of the COVID-19 in India
remains low related to population size of the country. It is because of fast government action to
quarantine the suspected people and shut down all its borders. There is a great slowdown in the
global economy due to COVID-19 attack which is likely to costs around $1 trillion.

The spread of COVID-19 infection can be reduced by minimizing the H-H transmissions. Still there
is need of Anti-n-CoV drug development which can replace the supporting therapies for the
treatment of infection.

Observations: Till now there is no authorized vaccination is available for the

Treatment of COVID-19. It is found that the incubation period for the infection is 2-14 days
Which is usually 4 days in maximum of cases.

Review 2:
Year: 2020
Research Title: Recrudescence of COVID-19: A review of literature and Indian perspective

Description: The present article aims to describe the sudden emergence of 2019 novel Corona virus
its incidence and spread among the neighboring countries and preventive measures that the World
Health Organization and The Central Government of India is taking to ensure early detection and
management of cases. Setting and design: The study is cumulative of the recent literature released
by the Central Government of India DHR and ICMR, the Chinese scientists handling the samples
and Interim measures on controlling the 2019n-Corona virus by World Health Organization and
American National Institute of Health. Materials and Methods: Inclusion criteria: Articles that
discussed corona virus history and epidemiology. Case reports and Interim guidelines by WHO.
Articles related to treatment of SARS and MERS in the past 10 years. The study was conducted at
GIMS-VRDL, Department of Microbiology, Gulbarga Institute of Medical Sciences, Kalaburagi,
Karnataka and articles were selected using PRISMA 2009 checklist.

Observations: In a short period of 58 days 2019n-CoV has affected more than 82138 people
globally and caused 2801 casualties (2744 deaths in mainland China and 57 deaths in the
neighbouring countries). The novel corona virus has challenged human technology and
 development with its undetected highly efficient spread and mutation rate. The role of WHO and
ICMR in providing interim guidelines to health care professionals and Research Scientists in
identification, isolation, specimen collection and management of affected cases is commendable

4.2 Technology and Tools Used:

Python

Python is an interpreted, high-level, general-purpose programming language. Created by Guido van

Rossum and first released in 1991, Python's design philosophy emphasizes code readability with its
notable use of significant whitespace. Its language constructs and object-oriented approach aim to
help programmers write clear, logical code for small and large-scale projects.

Python is dynamically typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms,

including structured (particularly, procedural), object-oriented, and functional programming.
Python is often described as a "batteries included" language due to its comprehensive standard
library.

Python is a popular programming language. It was created by Guido van Rossum, and released in
1991.

It is used for:

 Web development (server-side),

  Software development,

 Mathematics,

 System scripting.

 Data Science operations

What can Python do?

 Python can be used on a server to create web applications.

 Python can be used alongside software to create workflows.

 Python can connect to database systems. It can also read and modify files.

 Python can be used to handle big data and perform complex mathematics.

 Python can be used for rapid prototyping, or for production-ready software development.

Why Python?

 Python works on different platforms (Windows, Mac, Linux, Raspberry Pi, etc.).

 Python has a simple syntax similar to the English language.

 Python has syntax that allows developers to write programs with fewer lines than some other
programming languages.

 Python runs on an interpreter system, meaning that code can be executed as soon as it is
written. This means that prototyping can be very quick.

 Python can be treated in a procedural way, an object-orientated way or a functional way.

Why learn Python for data analysis?

 Python has gathered a lot of interest recently as a choice of language for data analysis. I
had basics of Python some time back. Here are some reasons which go in favor of learning
Python:
a) Open Source – free to install
b) Awesome online community
 c) Very easy to learn

 Can become a common language for data science and production of web based analytics
products.

 Needless to say, it still has few drawbacks too:

 It is an interpreted language rather than compiled language – hence might take up more CPU
time. However, given the savings in programmer time (due to ease of learning), it might still be
a good choice.

Jupyter :

The Jupyter Notebook is an incredibly powerful tool for interactively developing and presenting data
science projects. This article will walk you through how to use Jupyter Notebooks for data science
projects and how to set it up on your local machine. A notebook integrates code and its output into a
single document that combines visualizations, narrative text, mathematical equations, and other rich
media. In other words: it's a single document where you can run code, display the output, and also add
explanations, formulas, charts, and make your work more transparent, understandable, repeatable, and
shareable.

Using Notebooks is now a major part of the data science workflow at companies across the globe. If
your goal is to work with data, using a Notebook will speed up your workflow and make it easier to
communicate and share your results.

Best of all, as part of the open source Project Jupyter, Jupyter Notebooks are completely free. You can
download the software on its own, or as part of the Anaconda data science toolkit. Although it is
possible to use many different programming languages in Jupyter Notebooks, this article will focus on
Python, as it is the most common use case. (Among R users, R Studio tends to be a more popular
choice).

How do Jupyter Notebooks work?

Jupyter Notebooks work with what is called a two-process model based on a kernel-client infrastructure.
This model applies a similar concept to the Read-Evaluate-Print Loop (REPL) programming environment
that takes a single user’s inputs, evaluates them, and returns the result to the user.
Based on the two-process model concept, we can explain the main components of Jupyter in the
following way:

Jupyter Client
It allows a user to send code to the kernel in a form of a Qt Console or a browser via notebook
documents. From a REPL perspective, the client does the read and print operations.

Notebooks are hosted by a Jupyter web server which uses Tornado to serve HTTP requests.

Jupyter Kernel
It receives the code sent by the client, executes it, and returns the results back to the client for
display. A kernel process can have multiple clients communicating with it which is why this model
is also referred as the decoupled two-process model.
From a REPL perspective, the kernel does the evaluate operation.
Kernel and clients communicate via an interactive computing protocol based on an asynchronous
messaging library named ZeroMQ (low-level transport layer) and WebSockets (TCP-based)

Jupyter Notebook Document

Notebooks are automatically saved and stored on disk in the open source JavaScript Object
Notation (JSON) format and with an .ipynb extension.

Anaconda Navigator

Anaconda Navigator is a desktop graphical user interface (GUI) included in Anaconda® distribution
that allows you to launch applications and easily manage conda packages, environments, and channels
without using command-line commands. Navigator can search for packages on Anaconda Cloud or in
a local Anaconda Repository. It is available for Windows, macOS, and Linux.Anaconda Navigator is a
desktop graphical user interface included in Anaconda that allows you to launch applications and easily
manage conda packages, environments and channels without the need to use command line commands.

Why use Navigator?

In order to run, many scientific packages depend on specific versions of other packages. Data
scientists often use multiple versions of many packages and use multiple environments to separate
these different versions.

The command-line program conda is both a package manager and an environment manager. This
helps data scientists ensure that each version of each package has all the dependencies it requires
and works correctly.

Navigator is an easy, point-and-click way to work with packages and environments without needing
to type conda commands in a terminal window. You can use it to find the packages you want, install
them in an environment, run the packages, and update them – all inside Navigator.
What applications can I access using Navigator?

The following applications are available by default in Navigator:

 JupyterLab

 Jupyter Notebook

 Spyder

 PyCharm

 VSCode

 Glueviz

 Orange 3 App

 RStudio

 Anaconda Prompt (Windows only)

4.3 Origin and Spread of new coronavirus (COVID-19)
First case of coronavirus (COVID-19) was observed in the Wuhan city of China. Wuhan, Hubei
province of China is considered as the origin for the life threatening viral outbreak of Novel COVID-
19 .Wuhan is the capital city of Hubei province which is also known as the one the major
transportation hub in the China started serving the hospitals in their local regions with the
Pneumonia with unknown causes. The initial was traced with some of common exposures to the
wholesale seafood market in Wuhan city which is also known for trading the living animals. After
the SARS outbreak surveillance system was activated and respiratory related samples of
suspected patients were sent to the labs for the investigations. China notified the outbreak to

WHO on December-31, 2019 and on January 1, 2020 seafood market of Huanan was closed till
further notice. On January 7, 2020 it is found that coronavirus has the >70% homogeneity with
SARS-CoV and >95% with the bat coronavirus.

Soon, the people who were not visited to animal market infected due to the human to human
transmission which converted into the community transmission and Epidemic. China reported its
first fatal case on January 11, 2020. Cases were reported in the other countries (South Korea,
Japan and Thailand) and provinces of China in very short time in people who visited or returned

from the Wuhan city during the outbreak. China government decided to lockdown the 11 million
population of Wuhan city on January 23, 2020 with the restrictions for entry and exits from the
Wuhan city.

Due to the virus spread over Hubei province other cities were also lockdown. Airports of the
different countries put the screening mechanisms to detect the infected people so that infected
people returning from China can be detected and put into isolation till not tested or recovered from
COVID-19.

Clinical Features

Incubation Period

The incubation period for the COVID-19 virus is 14 days with most of cases occurs within the
four to five days after the exposure. In the study of the 1099 patients with confirmed COVID-19
symptoms the median incubation period was 4 days. The symptoms developed in 2.5% infected
people within 2 days while 97.5% infected people took 11.5 days to develop the symptoms. The
median incubation period was 5.1 days.

Asymptomatic infections

The frequencies of the asymptomatic infections are still unknown. During the outbreak of COVID-
19 all passenger and staff of a cruise ship were screened for the n-CoV in which around 17% tested
positive as of February 20, 2020 and about half of the 619 confirmed the COVID-19 cases were
asymptomatic during the diagnosis stage. Patients with the asymptomatic infection may have
objective abnormalities. In the study of 24 patients with asymptomatic infection go through the CT,
50% having the patchy shadowing and 2-% having the atypical imaging abnormalities. 5 patients
developed the fever (low grade fever) without other typical symptoms after the few days of
diagnosis.

Spectrum of Illness severity

The spectrum of the infections ranges from the mild to critical in most of the cases while not all the
infections are severe. Chinese centre for the disease control and prevention has mentioned in their
report that in the 44,500 reported cases Mild or no mild pneumonia was detected in 81% of cases.
In 14% of cases severe diseases i.e. hypoxia and dyspnea was observed with 24-48 hours. 5% cases
reported the critical diseases. The overall fatality rate was 2.3% and there was no death reported
among the non-critical cases in the study.

Management and Vaccination status of COVID-19

There is no vaccination available at the present time for the COVID-19. There are only supportive
therapies are given to the suspected and infected patients which are followed by health professionals
around the world. The various supportive health therapies includes the maintenance of hydration,
administration of antipyretic and analgesic and mechanical ventilations is giving as the supportive
therapies to the patients. In some cases interferon alpha
and ribavirin has been given to the patients at the early stages of the infection. As the monotherapy
mycophenolic acid is given in some cases. Still there is need of proper vaccination
to cure the COVID-19 infection which is still under research. It is difficult to differentiate the
COVID-19 from the other types of the respiratory viral infections by the routine lab tests or
clinically so there is need of travel history of every suspect or patient to minimize the spread of
infection. Till then there is need to ensure the adequate isolation for the health workers and patients
to prevent the transmission of infection to the surroundings.

There should be need of proper consultation if any symptoms appeared in a person related to
COVID-19 and routine use of antibiotics such be avoided in the confirmed cases. In the hypoxic
patients, HFNC (high flow nasal cannula), surgical face masks and provision of oxygen through the
nasal pongs is indicated. Still the role of corticosteroids is unproven as the WHO is against the use
of this. While Chinese health organizations have recommended the short term therapy of
corticosteroids with low dose in the COVID-19.

The detailed guidelines for the critical care of COVID-19 have been already published by the World
health organization. As per now there is no approved treatment for the COVID-19 infection but
antiviral drugs such as lopinavir-ritoanvir and ribavirin are using based on the past experience of
the MERS and SARS. Based on the past experience it is found that the in SARS patient had better
outcomes with the combined treatment of ribavirin and lopinavirritonavir.

Govt. of India has taken many initiatives to minimize the spread of COVID-19 infection in the
country. As India is the world second largest populated country but till now only 283 cases have
been reported in the India. The infection rate of the COVID-19 in India remains low related to
population size of the country. It is because of fast government action to quarantine the suspected
people and shut down all its borders. Indian government is screening all the international travellers
at the airport to avoid the spread of the infection. More than 1 million passengers have been screened
till now in India in all international airports. Also, the Govt. of India has advised the Indian citizen
to avoid all non-essential travel to abroad also the citizens of India have been already evacuated
from the most infected countries like Italy, China, Iran and Japan.

The Ministry of external affairs has also postponed the Indian cricket league. All the state authorities
have shut down the schools, gyms, shopping malls and colleges till March 31, 2020. Still the India
is facing the same challenges as other countries of the world which includes the limiting
unauthorized mass gathering and fake health messages to create panic and anxiety in the public
related to COVID-19. Also, the COVID-19 hits hard to the global economy. There is a great
slowdown in the global economy due to COVID-19 attack which is likely to costs around $1 trillion.
The Public Health department of Maharashtra clearly said that consuming more garlic, cow urine
and curry leaves would neither help in the treatment nor prevent from the COVID-19 infection.
People should be focused on the hygiene practices and eat nutritious foods. The WHO report 60
clearly mentioned that the community transmission is not yet occurred in India till now there is only
local transmission. The spread of COVID-19 in India can be minimize by the mass gathering and
proper prevention with awareness related to infection.
 Chapter 5: Data Analysis & Interpretation

The COVID-19 pandemic is the defining global health crisis of our time and the greatest global
humanitarian challenge the world has faced since World War II. The virus has spread widely, and
the number of cases is rising daily as governments work to slow its spread. India has moved quickly,
implementing a proactive, nationwide, lockdown, with the goal of flattening the curve and using
the time to plan and resource responses adequately.
5.1 Confirmed cases By statewise

The above figure shows Confirmed cases till date in all states of india.As we can see from above
figure that Maharashtra is having large number of confirmed cases than other states, after that Tamil
nadu is having highest confirmed cases.
Standard deviation

Description

In statistics, the standard deviation is a measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. A
low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean of the set, while a high standard
deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range.

Data Sno Cured Deaths Confirmed

count 5511 5511 5511 5511
mean 2756 11791.64108 414.09472 18067.704
std 1591.032998 38030.1533 1632.054779 55215.253
min 1 0 0 0
25% 1378.5 13 0 58
50% 2756 403 7 1107
75% 4133.5 4822.5 127 8674.5
max 5511 480114 21995 671942

Quartile

A quartile is a type of quantile which divides the number of data points into four more or less equal parts, or
quarters. The first quartile (Q1) is defined as the middle number between the smallest number and the median
of the data set.It is also known as the lower quartile or the 25th empirical quartile and it marks where 25%
of the data is below or to the left of it (if data is ordered on a timeline from smallest to largest). The second
quartile (Q2) is the median of a data set and 50% of the data lies below this point. The third quartile (Q3) is
the middle value between the median and the highest value of the data set. It is also known as the upper
quartile or the 75th empirical quartile and 75% of the data lies below this point.Due to the fact that the data
needs to be ordered from smallest to largest to compute quartiles, quartiles are a form of Order statistic.

Based on the data from the data set we have calculated all the variance, Quartile on 25%, 50%, and 75%,
standard deviation, minimum and maximum. Currently, 14 districts in Maharashtra are badly hit by
COVID-19 pandemic, with many reporting Coronavirus infection cases in triple digits. The worst among
this is the Mumbai Metropolitan region, which comprises of Mumbai and Thane districts. In addition to
this, Pune has also reported several COVID-19 which are now growing consistently.
5.2 Age Group Analysis

All age groups are suspecitble in the COVID-19. But in the case studies it is found that most commonly
affected age groups are middle age group and older age groups. Mostly of the hospitals with the confirmed
COVID-19 cases having median age group of 49 to 56 years old. Chinese center for disease control and
prevention confirms the 44, 5000 infections in which the 87% of patients was between the 30 to 79 years old
age group. In the United States of America around 2249 patients were diagnosed between the time period of
Feb 12 to March 16, 2020 had the ICU, hospitalization and age information available.

A symptom occurrence in the children is appears to be uncommon and it happens it is usually mild in nature.
In China only two percentage of infections were appeared in the patients younger than 20 years old in South
Korea it was only 6.3% out of 8000 total infections. In the another study from China six children between
the age group of 1 to 6 years were admitted to hospital with COVID19 infection having the fever >102.2°F
with the cough out of which one was admitted to ICU. All the children have been recovered after the
treatment.

However some points needs to be considered from the prevention points of view which are discussed below:

1. If any suspect case is found, that needs to send to isolation center available near airport where
the suspect can be taken into isolation ward for next 14 days till the test report is available.

2. Mass gathering should be avoided till the situation comes under control. All the events and public
places with possibilities of mass gatherings should be closed till the situation of COVID-19
comes under control.

3. It is not possible for all the rural areas to purchase the sanitizers so alternative way of
Sensitizer should be provided. The agencies should aware the people of rural areas to
Benefits from use of sanitizer and development the low cost sanitizers at their homes.

4. All the clinics in the India should update with the recent developments in the spread of
COVID-19 in the world so in the emergency time necessary steps can be taken.
The above return code snippet gives the analysis by age group wise.

Code Snippet

# Age group Data

AgeGroupCases = pd.read_csv(r"E:\MBA\Projects\AgeGroupDetails.csv", index_col = 'Sno')

# fuction to convert
def fromPercentToNumber(value):

value = value.rstrip('%')
return float(value)

# read data
ageGroupCases['Percentage'] = ageGroupCases['Percentage'].apply(fromPercentToNumber)

plt.figure(figsize = (8, 8))

plt.title('Age Wise Covid patients')
sns.barplot(data = ageGroupCases, x = 'AgeGroup', y = 'Percentage', palette='icefire');

The above figure shows how different age groups has affected by corona virus. It seems like the age
group 20 - 50 have the most chance of getting affected by COVID. Mostly the people who are having
previous diseases or less immunity power they get affected very fast.
age_details = pd.read_csv (r"E:\MBA\Projects\AgeGroupDetails.csv", index_col = 'Sno')
labels = list(age_details['AgeGroup'])
sizes = list(age_details['TotalCases'])

explode = []

for i in labels:
explode.append(0.05)

plt.figure(figsize= (15,10))
plt.pie(sizes, labels=labels, autopct='%1.1f%%', startangle=9, explode =explode)
centre_circle = plt.Circle((0,0),0.70,fc='white')

fig = plt.gcf()
fig.gca().add_artist(centre_circle)
plt.title('India - Age Group wise Distribution',fontsize = 20)
plt.axis('equal')
plt.tight_layout()

We could see that the age group <40 is the most affected which is against the trend which says elderly
people are more at risk of being affected. Only 17% of people >60 are affected.
5.3 By Gender analysis

individual_details = pd.read_csv(r"E:\MBA\Projects\IndividualDetails.csv")
labels = ['Missing', 'Male', 'Female']
sizes = []
sizes.append(individual_details['gender'].isnull().sum())
sizes.append(list(individual_details['gender'].value_counts())[0])
sizes.append(list(individual_details['gender'].value_counts())[1])

explode = (0, 0.1, 0)

colors = ['#ffcc99','#66b3ff','#ff9999']

plt.figure(figsize= (15,10))
plt.title('Percentage of Gender',fontsize = 20)
plt.pie(sizes, explode=explode, labels=labels, colors=colors, autopct='%1.1f%%',shadow=True,
startangle=90)
plt.axis('equal')
plt.tight_layout()

**80% of the patient’s gender information is missing. As the system data set is not updated time to time due
to lack of resources some were, due to less manpower data is not updated. There are some entries whose only
name address and phone number is entered, no other information is entered due to which we are not able to
identify among the data set.

Based on the remaining data we can identify how many are males and females among the given data set. The
below figure shows us the details about gender wise except missing information.

labels = ['Male', 'Female']

sizes = []
sizes.append(list(individual_details['gender'].value_counts())[0])
sizes.append(list(individual_details['gender'].value_counts())[1])

explode = (0.1, 0)
colors = ['#66b3ff','#ff9999']

plt.figure(figsize= (15,10))
plt.pie(sizes, explode=explode, labels=labels, colors=colors, autopct='%1.1f%%',
shadow=True, startangle=90)

plt.title('Percentage of Gender (Ignoring the Missing Values)',fontsize = 20)

plt.axis('equal')
plt.tight_layout()
Men are the most affected accounting to 67%. But, remember we have ~80% data missing.

5.4 Statewise Insights

The above analysis shows the details about corona virus patient which are confirmed, cured or death base on
different states. It also shows the active record count. We have calculated here death rate and cured rate per
100 based on the given data set. Please find below figure for more details. There are so many testing centers
are opened by the Indian government in each and every state. There are separate covid testing centers to test
corona patients other than daily opd patients. Each and every state is taking care for their individual areas. In
Maharashtra we have more than 1000 testing centers in different different districts.

You’ve probably heard a lot about coronavirus testing recently. If you think you have coronavirus disease
2019 (COVID-19) and need a test, contact your health care provider, local pharmacy, or local health
department External Link Disclaimer immediately. The FDA has been working around the clock to increase
the availability of critical medical products, including tests for the coronavirus, to fight the COVID-19
pandemic. Learn more about the different types of tests and the steps involved.

Types of Tests
There are two different types of tests – diagnostic tests and antibody tests.

A diagnostic test can show if you have an active coronavirus infection and should take steps to quarantine or
isolate yourself from others. Currently there are two types of diagnostic tests which detect the virus –
molecular tests, such as RT-PCR tests, that detect the virus’s genetic material, and antigen tests that detect
specific proteins on the surface of the virus.

An antibody test looks for antibodies that are made by your immune system in response to a threat, such as
a specific virus. Antibodies can help fight infections. Antibodies can take several days or weeks to develop
after you have an infection and may stay in your blood for several weeks or more after recovery. Because of
this, antibody tests should not be used to diagnose an active coronavirus infection. At this time researchers
do not know if the presence of antibodies means that you are immune to the coronavirus in the future.

There are some new diagnostic tests available with alternative methods and benefits.
  Rapid, point-of-care diagnostic tests use a mucus sample from the nose or throat but can be analyzed
at the doctor’s office or clinic where the sample is collected and results may be available in minutes.
These may be molecular or antigen tests.

 At-home collection tests, available only by prescription from a doctor, allow the patient to collect the
sample at home and send it directly to the lab for analysis.

 Saliva tests allow a patient to spit into a tube rather than get their nose or throat swabbed. Saliva tests
may be more comfortable for some people and may be safer for health care workers who can be
farther away during the sample collection.

Molecular Tests

Many companies and labs have developed tests to diagnose COVID-19 based on detection of the virus’s
genetic material in a sample from the patient’s nose or throat. These steps may change as new technology
becomes available, but currently the typical steps in molecular testing are:

A doctor, pharmacist, or other health professional orders a COVID-19 test. All COVID-19 tests, including
those used with a home collection kit, require a prescription or order from a health professional.
You or a health care professional use a specialized swab to collect mucus from your nose or throat. You or a
health care professional put the swab in a sterile container and seal it for transport to a lab. During the shipping
process, most molecular test swabs must be kept within a certain temperature range so that the test will be
accurate. The sample must arrive at the lab within 72 hours. A lab technician mixes chemicals with the swab
to extract the genetic material of any virus that may be on the swab. The lab technician uses special chemicals,
called primers and probes, and a high-tech machine to conduct several controlled heating and cooling cycles
to convert the virus's RNA into DNA, and then make millions of copies of the DNA. Some tests use only one
warming cycle to make copies of the DNA. When DNA binds to specific probes, a special type of light is
produced that can be seen by the machine and the test shows a "positive" result for infection with SARS-
CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
The FDA continues to work with test developers to make more coronavirus tests available to more people in
the future. Molecular diagnostic tests that detect the genetic material of the virus are commonly used for
diagnosing COVID-19 or active coronavirus infection. But no test is 100% accurate all of the time. Some
things that may affect the test’s accuracy include:

 You may have the virus, but the swab might not collect it from your nose or throat.
 The swab or mucus sample may be accidentally contaminated by the virus during collection or
analysis.
 The nasal or throat swab may not be kept at the correct temperature before it can be analyzed.
 The chemicals used to extract the virus genetic material and make copies of the virus DNA may not
work correctly.

Antigen Tests
Antigen tests usually provide results diagnosing an active coronavirus infection faster than molecular tests,
but antigen tests have a higher chance of missing an active infection. If an antigen test shows a negative result
indicating that you do not have an active coronavirus infection, your health care provider may order a
molecular test to confirm the result.

Antibody (Serology) Tests

Antibody tests may provide quick results, but should not be used to diagnose an active infection. Antibody
tests only detect antibodies the immune system develops in response to the virus, not the virus itself. It can
take days to several weeks to develop enough antibodies to be detected in a test.

The best way to get a coronavirus test is to contact your health care provider. You may also visit your state
or local External Link Disclaimer health department’s website to look for the latest local information on
testing.

Code Snippet:

india_covid_19 = pd.read_csv(r"E:\MBA\Projects\covid_19_india.csv", index_col = 'Sno')

state_cases =
india_covid_19.groupby('State/UnionTerritory')['Confirmed','Deaths','Cured'].max().reset_index()
#state_cases = state_cases.astype({'Deaths': 'int'})
state_cases['Active'] = state_cases['Confirmed'] - (state_cases['Deaths']+state_cases['Cured'])

state_cases["Death Rate (per 100)"] = np.round(100*state_cases["Deaths"]/state_cases["Confirmed"],2)

state_cases["Cure Rate (per 100)"] = np.round(100*state_cases["Cured"]/state_cases["Confirmed"],2)
state_cases.sort_values('Confirmed', ascending=
False).fillna(0).style.background_gradient(cmap='Blues',subset=["Confirmed"])\
.background_gradient(cmap='Blues',subset=["Deaths"])\
.background_gradient(cmap='Blues',subset=["Cured"])\
.background_gradient(cmap='Blues',subset=["Active"])\
.background_gradient(cmap='Blues',subset=["Death Rate (per 100)"])\
.background_gradient(cmap='Blues',subset=["Cure Rate (per 100)"])
As we can see above figure Maharashtra is having more number of positive /confirmed cases hose deadth
ratio is 3.7 per 100 and cure rate is 71.3 per 100. After that tamilnadu is having more cases with 1.7 deadth
rate and 83.90 is cure rate.Tamil nadu is having highest cured rate than other states. There is fast recovery
among corona virus patients.

Maharashtra is having highest death ratio as daily 30 + number of people died due to corona virus. Daman
and Diu is having less number of patients than other states. With over 10500 COVID-19 positive cases
reported from the state, Maharashtra is the worst effected state due to the Coronavirus pandemic. Despite
aggressive containment measures by the state and central governments, the disease has spread across the state
with cases being reported from as many as 14 districts.

As per the latest update, over 14 Districts in Maharashtra have been announced as Red Zone Districts
including top metropolitan areas of Mumbai and Pune. In addition to this over 1300 Red Zones or
Containment Zones have also been created in Mumbai to curb spread of COVID-19. On 1st May 2020, the
Health Ministry released an updated list of Coronavirus Red Zones, Orange Zones and Green Zones, which
put over 14 districts in Maharashtra on Red Zone List. This includes major cities of the state including
including Mumbai, Pune, Thane and Nashik.

Red Zone Districts comprise of the areas from where COVID-19 positive cases are being reported regularly
and in large numbers. On the other hand Orange Zone Areas are the ones from where cases were reported
in the last but have not been reported recently (14 days). On similar lines, Green Zone districts are the areas
from where no cases have been reported in at-least last 28 days.

As on 1st May, 14 districts in Maharashtra have been identified as Red Zones, while 16 Districts have been
demarcated as Orange Zone. According to the Health Department Dashboard, two districts from Orange
Zone have been to Green, taking the total number of districts on Green Zone List to 6.
5.5 Statewise Testing and Healthcare Insights

Primary health centers (PHCs) represent the first tier of the Indian health care system, providing a range of
essential outpatient services to people living in the rural, suburban, and hard-to-reach areas. Diversion of
health care resources for containing the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly
undermined the accessibility and availability of essential health services. Under these circumstances, the
preparedness of PHCs in providing safe patient-centered care and meeting the current health needs of the
population while preventing further transmission of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
infection is crucial.

COVID-19 is an unprecedented pandemic which has led to millions being affected and thousands dying every
day across the world. Towards this mammoth effort, the Indian medical and public health community is
contributing in a big way. To ensure preparedness of Primary Health Centers in rural/community settings, 15
clinicians and public health experts from leading institutions, including The George Institute for Global
Health, India formed the COVID-19 PHC Action Group. The COVID-19 PHC Action group, a collaborative
is led by Dr Prashanth NS, Institute of Public Health, Bangalore. Dr Soumyadeep Bhaumik from The George
Institute for Global Health has contributed majorly to development of the policy resource.

Code Snippet

hospital_beds = pd.read_csv(r"E:\MBA\Projects\HospitalBedsIndia.csv")
hospital_beds =hospital_beds.drop([36])
cols_object = list(hospital_beds.columns[2:8])

for cols in cols_object:

hospital_beds[cols] = hospital_beds[cols].astype(int,errors = 'ignore')

top_10_primary = hospital_beds.nlargest(10,'NumPrimaryHealthCenters_HMIS')
top_10_community = hospital_beds.nlargest(10,'NumCommunityHealthCenters_HMIS')
top_10_district_hospitals = hospital_beds.nlargest(10,'NumDistrictHospitals_HMIS')
top_10_public_facility = hospital_beds.nlargest(10,'TotalPublicHealthFacilities_HMIS')
top_10_public_beds = hospital_beds.nlargest(10,'NumPublicBeds_HMIS')
plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))
plt.suptitle('Top 10 States in each Health Facility',fontsize=20)
plt.subplot(221)
plt.title('Primary Health Centers')
plt.barh(top_10_primary['State/UT'],top_10_primary['NumPrimaryHealthCenters_HMIS'],color
='#87479d');

plt.subplot(222)
plt.title('Community Health Centers')
plt.barh(top_10_community['State/UT'],top_10_community['NumCommunityHealthCenters_HMIS'],color
= '#9370db');

plt.subplot(224)
plt.title('Total Public Health Facilities')
plt.barh(top_10_community['State/UT'],top_10_public_facility['TotalPublicHealthFacilities_HMIS'],color=
'#9370db');

plt.subplot(223)
plt.title('District Hospitals')
plt.barh(top_10_community['State/UT'],top_10_district_hospitals['NumDistrictHospitals_HMIS'],color =
'#87479d');

Below figure shows states having higesht primary health centers in which Uttar Pradesh is having highest
centers.
The below figures represents community health centers list based on state wised. Each and every state has
more than 100 health care centers different Each and every health care center has all the emergency
facilities district wise.

Below figures shows district hospitals state wise. In Maharashtra only we have 52 districts Each and every
district has its own government hospitals including different talukas also. Emergency wards are there in
every hospitals to handle critical cases.
Below figure shows total health facilities state wise. From below gigue we can see Uttar Pradesh is having
more than 4000 rural hospitals. Similarly we have more than 4000 rural hospitals in mahatarshtra in current
situation

Below figure shows rural hosptals by state wise.Every district in each state is having public health facilities.
Each center is having well trained health care workers which are performing 24/7 services to help and treat
the patents which are suffering from mulitle diseases.
Below figure shows urban beds records as per state wise. Currently Each and every state has increased
number of beds in their particular states.Separte wards, ICU beds are arranged for the patients. Some states
are booked college campus, schools and playgrounds for arrangement of isolation beds.

The suspected coronavirus patient ares are kept in a separate ward sat from main covid-19 ward as they may
or may not have the infection. Multiple covid-19 treatment hospitals and centers with a combined capacity
of 7,000 beds will come up in Mumbai in next two weeks. The state government has started taking over non-
public hospitals having at least 100 beds and 20 ICU beds in all wards of the BMC to convert them into covid
-19 care centers
5.6 TestingStatewise Insight

Govt. of India has taken many initiatives to minimize the spread of COVID-19 infection in the country. As
India is the world second largest populated country but till now only 283 cases have been reported in the
India. The infection rate of the COVID-19 in India remains low related to population size of the country.

It is because of fast government action to quarantine the suspected people and shut down all its borders.
Indian government is screening all the international travelers at the airport to avoid the spread of the
infection. More than 1 million passengers hav been screened till now in India in all international airports.
Also, the Govt. of India has advised the Indian citizen to avoid all non-essential travel to abroad also the
citizens of India have been already evacuated from the most infected countries like Italy, China, Iran and
Japan.

state_testing=pd.read_csv(r"E:\MBA\Projects\StatewiseTestingDetails.csv")
state_test = pd.pivot_table(state_testing, values=['TotalSamples','Negative','Positive'], index='State',
aggfunc='max')
state_names = list(state_test.index)
state_test['State'] = state_names

plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))
sns.set_color_codes("pastel")
sns.barplot(x="TotalSamples", y= state_names, data=state_test,label="Total Samples", color = '#9370db')
sns.barplot(x="Negative", y=state_names, data=state_test,label="Negative", color= '#ff9999')
sns.barplot(x="Positive", y=state_names, data=state_test,label="Positive", color='#87479d')
plt.title('Testing statewise insight',fontsize = 20)
plt.legend(ncol=2, loc="lower right", frameon=True);
ICMR_labs=pd.read_csv(r"E:\MBA\Projects\ICMRTestingLabs.csv")
values = list(ICMR_labs['state'].value_counts())
names = list(ICMR_labs['state'].value_counts().index)

plt.figure(figsize=(15,10))
sns.set_color_codes("pastel")
plt.title('ICMR Testing Centers in each State', fontsize = 20)
sns.barplot(x= values, y= names,color = '#9370db');
 CHAPTER 6

6.1 KEY FINDINGS

1. As we know India is having 28 states. We have seen in our study how covid -19 has affected
all the states.

2. We have seen how covid-19 has affected different age groups among which 20 -50 age
group people is having more infected.

3. From all the data we have analysis how each and every state has taken precautions against
corona virus. We have seen number of rural and urban hospitals state wise. We have seen
how states is having number of health care centers.

4. A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean of the set,
while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range.

Data Sno Cured Deaths Confirmed

std 1591.032998 38030.1533 1632.054779 55215.253

5. Based on data our visualizations are telling us total no. of confirmed cases in Maharashtra
is almost 17.5 lacs till Nov mid, which is more or less aligned with real life evaluation.

6. Assuming the same growth factor continues for the next 15 days. Prediction using growth
factor.

I.e. Average growth factor = 1.1833

 CHAPTER 7

7.1 SUGGESTIONS

 If you are in an area where there is an outbreak of COVID-19 you need to take the risk
of infection seriously.

 Follow the advice issued by national and local health authorities. Although for most
people COVID-19 causes only mild illness, it can make some people very ill. More
rarely, the disease can be fatal. Older people, and those with preexisting medical
conditions (such as high blood pressure, heart problems or diabetes) appear to be more
vulnerable.

 “Stop The Spread” is a global campaign which aims to raise awareness about the risks
of misinformation around COVID-19, and encourages them to double check information
with trusted sources such as WHO and national health authorities...
 CHAPTER 8

CONCLUSION

With growing numbers of cases the fight against the corona virus is still at stake, research needs
to be conducted for better understanding different routes of spread including vertical
transmission in humans and the detailed genomic sequence, for developing diagnostic kits and
efficient anti corona virus drugs and vaccinations. If you find any symptoms please do not
hesitate to call doctors or reach out to any nearby health care center or covid center.

Take all the precautions before moving out. Avoid travelling in crowd area. Always wash your
hands whenever you come from outside.
 REFERENCES

1. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

2. https://www.mohfw.gov.in/

3. https://www.kaggle.com/imdevskp/covid19-corona-virus-india-dataset

4. https://jupyter.org/

5. IP International Journal of Medical Microbiology and Tropical Diseases ,"Recrudescence of

COVID-19: A review of literature and Indian perspective" Multazim M Pathan*, Nawaz Umar,
Neetu Vijay, Sheeza I Patel, Heeba M Pathan 2020

6. "Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Current literature and status in India" , Anbesh
Jamwal1*, Sumedha Bhatnagar , Prakarti Sharma,Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Malaviya National Institute of Technology, J.L.N. Marg, Jaipur, Rajasthan-302017
(India),Department of Social Sciences and Humanities, Malaviya National Institute of
Technology, J.L.N. Marg, Jaipur, Rajasthan302017 (India) 2020