财务、企业理财、权益、其他
财务、企业理财、权益、其他
财务、企业理财、权益、其他
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韩霄
• 工作职称:金程教育资深培训师
• 教育背景:南京大学外国语学院 主修英语专业、副修国际金融专业 ;美国特许金融分析师
(CFA)、中国注册会计师(CPA)证券从业资格
• 工作背景:曾在安永华明会计师事务所上审计部和普华永道企业并购服务部担任高级审计师
和助理经理。负责负责针对并购投资项目目标公司的财务尽职调查工作即相关市场及行业
分析。现在某公司担任投资发展部经理,负责各类医药并购项目的分析评估,尽职调查、
估值、谈判等。累计课时超过2000小时,课程清晰易懂,深受学员欢迎。
• 讲授课程:CFA财报、权益、企业、衍生 CPA会计、财管
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2-102
Framework
R16 Intercorporate Investments
SS5: Financial Reporting and
Analysis: Intercorporate
R17 Employee Compensation: Post-Employment
Investments, Post-Employment
and Share-Based Compensation, and Share-Based
and Multinational Operations
R18 Multinational Operations
3-102
R16
Intercorporate Investments
4-102
Financial Business
Associates Joint Ventures
assets combination
Degree of
No significant Significant Control Shared control
Influence
Typical %
<20% 20% - 50% >50% Varies
Interest
Term of
N/A Associate Subsidiary N/A
investee
x Equity Method;
GAA
PIERS
极少情况下:
Treatment Cost or Market Equity Method Consolidation
Proportionate "
consolidation IF RS
5-102
Financial Assets
Held-to-Maturity--->只可能是Debt
Financial assets Available-for-sale Trading Securities
分类 Fair value through P/L Designated at fair value
IFRS下只有HTM与AFS可互相重分类
重分类
U.S.GAAP下只有HTM与TS不可互相重分类
6-102
Financial Instrument --Impairment
IFRS
减值测试 Carrying amount > PV of CF
HTM 减值处理 Impairment loss is recognized on I/S
减值回转 Reversal of impairment is also recognized through I/S
减值测试 Carrying amount>Fair value
AFS 减值处理 Cumulative loss in OCI is reclassified to I/S
Debt: recognized through I/S
减值回转
Equity: can NOT be reversed through 1/5,but through OCI
TS 不做减值,因为价值变动直接 计入I/S
US.GAAP
减值测试 判断 Write down 是否暂时 摊销 基础 改变
HTM 减值处理 Loss is recognized on I/S,减值后fair value成为new cost basis
减值回转 不能减值转回
减值测试 判断 Write down 是否暂时
Cumulative loss in OCI is reclassified to I/S,减值后Fair value成为
AFS 减值处理
New cost basis
减值回转 减值不能转回, 后续 Fair value 回升作计入OCI
TS 不做减值,因为价值变动直接 计入I/S
7-102
Associate
初始计量 B/S上按Acquisition Cost记Investment BU-toooFUiuo.yBVdepyooFVdepion.to
已用 2年
tpupt.to
,
不摊销,每 Goodwill
Ni
"
年减值测试 Fair value 亿 ⒯ 一
Appreciation Acquisition
Equity Method Fair value of net cost
Book value
identifiable assets
of net
基于Fair value of Fvcjxed intangible
)
(equity
Told GW )
identifiable io B v → .
assets /
-
Impairment→IFRS与US. GAAP都不可reversal
Transaction with associates → Upstream & Downstream→原则:unrealized profit要消
除。→计算 8-102
Business Combination
/ acquisition
原理 • 被收购方的 asset与liability全部计入收购方 B/S,不
Consolidation 属于收购方的计入MI (B/S上少数股东权益)
会计计量 • 被收购方期间 NI全部计入收购方 I/S。不属于收购方
计算及会计处理 的计入MI (I/S上少数股东损益) A 8 热 3 ( 1
。
equyFV-to.es
丁
Caw
二 4 00
_ 10 0 0
full MI : zero
partial
ME full
=
' to
0
3
Goodwill 些 热
笟
靠
'
partial partial MI 10 two -1
二 一
0
Goodwill = Acquisition cost - Fair value of identifiable assets and liabilities of the target
:
会计处理 会计计量→计算
Not amortized US GAAP→ Full goodwill
IFRS→Partial or Full goodwill
Impairment test at least annually
Negative Goodwill→gain in I/S
NI
一
样
Joint Venture
Equity method
会计处理 很少会有Proportional consolidation方法→ 与Consolidation method
基本相同,只是不计入 MI影响 没有 MI 科目
三种方法对财务的影响
指标
三种方法对财务的影 影响
响 NI AII three methods report the same net income
10-102
R19
11-102
Defined-contribution pension plan
Defined-benefit pension plan
结构 Other post-retirement benefits→类似DB
Share - based compensation
DC DB OPB 二 D B 医疗
Not determined;
Amount of Depends on
Depends on future value of Pre-determined
benefit specifications of plan
plan assets
Investment risk Born by employee Born by employer Depends
1.DC plan
• Employer make periodical contributions to specific accounts;
• The contribution made by employer is fixed or pre-determinab|e;
• The obligation of employers is make contribution on time;
• The amount received by employees after retirement depends on the fair value
of the specific accounts accumulated → employee承担投资风险
• The accounting for DC plan is quite simple, expensed as incur.
12-102
DB Plan
计算PBO IFRS叫PVDBO 计算图解 → 会计算
Current Servicing Date of Payment of
B/S date period retirement pension
……
Discounting PV of Pension
PBO
payment
13-102
o funded status
a 计算 item
3
benefit paid
DB Plan
DB Plan 在B/S上计量→会计算
14-102
DB Plan 在I/S上计量--->会计算 Periodic Pension Cost --->掌握IFRS与U.S.GAAP区别
科目 计量
•The present value of benefits earned by the employees during the current period;
Current service cost
• U.S.GAAP与IFRS相 同,都计入I/S.
• Increase in the PBO due to the passage of time;
Interest cost •IFRS: Net pension liability/asset X discount rate of pension liability--->Net interest;
expense/income is recognised in P&L--->Asset return=Liability 折现率;
•U.S.GAAP : PBO X discount rate--->Asset与Liability分开考虑.
Expected return on •IFRS: 无这一项,因为假设Asset return=Liability折现率 ,直接体现在 Net
plan asset expense/income 上;
•U.S.GAAP : 资产有单独的Return, 抵减Interest cost.
•Actuarial gains and losses计入OCI--->产生原因
Amortization of An increase or decrease in the PBO from a change in actuarial;
actuarial gains and Difference between the expected return and actual return on plan assets
losses •Amortization of actuarial gains and losses;
IFRS: 不摊销.
U.S.GAAP : Amortized using the corridor approach--->Actuarial gains and losses
exceed 10% of the greater of the beginning PBO or plan assets,Amortization is
required.
•Past service costs--->The amount by which a company's pension obligation relating to
employees' service in prior periods changes as a result of plan amendments or a plan
Amortization of
curtailment;
past service costs
•IFRS:Past service costs are recognised as an expense in P&L--->不摊销.
15-102
•U.S.GAAP : 计入OCI--->摊销.
DB
DB Plan计量的三个假设
Plan计量的三个假设
假设 内容
Interest rates of high quality corporate fixed income
Discount rate Investments with a maturity profile similar to the future
obligation.
Affects the PBO as well as pension expense.
Rate of compensation growth Affects both the PBO and pension expense
Expected return on plan assets The expected return is assumed only under US GMP.
Under IFRS, equal to the discount rate
变更假设影响
B/S liability Pension expense
Increase discount rate Decrease Decrease (not mature plan)
Decrease rate of compensation
Decrease Decrease
growth
16-102
Other Post-employment Benefits
17-102
Stock Options-Call Option
Fair value of the stock option at the grant date (An option pricing
model can be used to determine the fair value of stock options)
19-102
Serveral Special Items 掌握分析师视角分析报表
调整内容 调整方法
• Pension A/L做netting原因:
• Employer承担投资风险
Gross vs Net Pension A/L • Operating asset与Pension asset分开管理
• 但是Netting会改变公司ratio评估,所以分析师要看在
gross情况下的ratio
Differences & Assumptions 与行业内其他公司比
IFRS Vs U.S.GAAP 主要区别在 OCI
U.S.GAAP--->One line
Differences in I/S
IFRS--->Various line items
CIF :
contributions CFO
to
以前 少 给
今年
。
20
筇
留
愁
些
蕊
彲
比 还
/ 相当 于 借 了 do
Analyst
20-102
R20
Multinational Operations
21-102
国际报表合并中常见货币
USD1 …
22-102
国际报表合并方法选择标准
Reporting Currency Reporting Currency
Reporting Currency
Current Method Current Method
Functional Currency Functional Currency
Functional Currency
independent Temporal Method
Local Currency integrated Temporal Method
Local Currency Local Currency
it nominal r
?
Hyperinflationary Economy合并方法选择 rf
1
一
⑷ ) ( it 人 ) (1 扪 ) 一 1 7 亿
,
Historical Current
Liabilities c F 不 确定
B/S
uneameoi
Capital Historical Historical
R/E Balancing Balancing
Mixed (change in retained
Equity (as a whole) Current
earnings is mixed)
Sales and other expenses Average 折算 I 15
average
NI
tent
Average 1-
1. 折算 31 5
1 → 1 2 1 Ee
historical = F × 4 人 0 C I
12 ( Eb NI Div
unrealized C 未 处置 )
2.
121 Ee =
Recognized on I/S
严(Affecting retained
折算了
.
not through I/S) resulting in
Translation G/L
NI before Fx all CTA (cumulative translation
earnings,no CTA)
NI Fx一
GIL adjustment)
•Monetary Assets/Liabilities--->Cash, Receivable, Payable, Short & Long Term Debt
•Non-monetary assets/Liabilities---> Inventory, Fixed Assets, Intangible Assets
24-102
Financial Ratio改变
Financial ratios under current rate method
Scenario Pure B/S and Pure I/S ratios B/S and I/S mix ratios
LC appreciating The same √ ROA, ROE, Turnovers: Lower
LC depreciating The same √ ROA, ROE, Turnovers: Higher
Comparison of ratios under 2 methods
LC Depreciating Temporal Current Rate
Current ratio ㄍㄥ 器 1g Higher Lower
䉹
Quick ratio Same Same
A/R turnover Same Same
Inventory turnover
Uncertain Uncertain
(LIFO FIFO uncertain)
Fixed Asset turnover 一
A Lower Higher
Gross profit margin Lower Higher
Net profit margin,ROE,ROA
Uncertain Uncertain
(translation gain/loss uncertain)
Interest coverage Lower Higher
Higher (equity used Mixed
LTD-to-Total capital Lower
rate)
25-102
Several Special Items
Inventories & COGS under Temporal Method
•Under FIFO, the ending inventories are re-measured at relatively recent rate;
•Under LlFO, the ending inventories are re-measured at relatively older rate
概念
Retained Earnings
Tax Implications
FIFO early → co as
26-102
R21
27-102
框架
Financial Report Quality
Altman Model
• 用来衡量公司破产概率
• 计算Z-score
29-102
评估I/S质量→ Quality of Earning
Revenue recognition
Issues Range of problems Warning SIgn
Revenue large increases in A/R, large decreases in
Early or delay revenue recognition
mísstatement unearned revenue
• Significant revenue without cash
collection;
Accelerate the recognition of
• Seeking for additional financing;
Accelerating revenue by reporting revenue in
• Significant options vested by
revenue current period that should be
management.
reported in future
• Maintain its track record of successively
meeting analyst forecasts
Temporal inconsistency with respect to the
Nonrecurring Report the non-recurring items or
included revenues and expenses in a
revenue non-operating gain as revenue.
company's definition of operating income
30-102
Expense Recognition
Issues Range of problems Warning sign
• Aggressive depreciation or
Understating amortization method and
• Ratios of depreciation;
expenses(see ssumptions ;
• Inventory turnover ratios;
example 4) • Un-recorded allowance for obsolete
inventories
Deferring Improper capitalization of cost which Track growth in net non-current
expenses should be expensed. assets
Ordinary as Report the ordinary expenses or cost as
Check ratio: (sales - COGS - SG&A)
nonrecurring or non-recurring items or non-operating
/sales
non- operating losses.
评估CF/S质量
high-quality cash flow特征 评估CF quality方法
• Positive OCF
• Checking for unusual items that have not
• OCF derived from sustainable sources
shown up in prior years
• OCF adequate to cover capital
• Checking revenue quality
expenditures, dividends, and debt
• Checking for strategic provisioning
repayments
• OCF with relatively low volatility 31-102
评估B/S质量
评估角度 评估方法
• Off-balance-sheet obligations
• A balance sheet with significant amounts of off-balance-sheet debt would lack the
completeness aspect of financial reporting quality.
Completeness • Take-or-pay contracts: obligate a party to either take delivery of goods or pay
a specified amount.
• Operating lease
• Intercorporate investments
• Unbiased measurement is a particularly important aspect of financial reporting quality
for assets and liabilities for which valuation is subjective .
• Value of the pension liabilitγ.
Unbiased • Value of investment in debt or equity of other companies for which a market value
measurement is not readily available.
• Goodwill value .
• Inventory valuation .
• Impairment of PP&E and other assets
• A company's financial statements can provide useful indicators of financial or operating
risk.
Clear
• While accounting standards specify which items should be included in the balance sheet,
presentation they do not typically specify how such items must be presented. (in determining which
line items should be shown separately and which should be aggregated into a single total)
32-102
评估信息来源
信息来源 信息内容
• High leverage ratios (or, similarly, low coverage ratios) derived from financial
Financial statement data can signal financial risk.
statements • Highly variable operating cash flows or negative trends in profit margins can
signal operating risks.
• An audit opinion(s) can provide some information about reporting risk.
• Notice: an audit opinion relates to historical information and would not
Auditor's report
provide information on a timely enough basis to be a useful source of
information about risk.
Notes to
The notes typically contain information that is useful in understanding a
financial
company's risk.
statements
MD&A can give users helpful in assessing the company's risk exposures and
MD&A
approaches to managing risk
In the United States, SEC from If “NT" is filed when a firm is unable to file
SEC from“NT"
required reports in a timely manner.
The financial press can be a useful source of information about risk when a
Financial press financial reporter uncovers financial reporting issues that had not previously
been recognized.
33-102
R22
34-102
本章为一个综合的案例分析,只要掌握里面的几个分析点即可
分析点 分析方法
Source of earning 杜邦分析 如何 improved 提高 factor CEBIT kapral ,
去掉 最差 部门
35-102
CFA 二级总复习串讲
Corporate Finance
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Framework
R23 Capital Budgeting
SS8
R24 Capital Structure
37-102
R23
Capital Budgeting
38-102
基本过程 Capital projects
Capital • Idea generation • Replacement projects
Budgeting • Analyzing project proposals 常见 • Expansion projects
• Create capital budget 项目 • New product or market
概念 • Monitoring decisions and • Mandatory investment
conducting a post-audit • Other projects
Basic principles
Incremental cash flows
• Based on cash flows Ignore: Sunk costs & Financing costs
Include: Externalities
(Cannibalization) &
Opportunity costs
• Timing of cash flows is important
• Cash flow are analyzed on an after tax basis
• Financing costs are reflect in the project's required rate of return
有限资本下选择project
Capital Rationing
Independent Projects Mutually Exclusive Projects
39-102
常见project分析 计算,了解inflaiton影响
Terminating
Operating stage
Initial stage
Expansion projects stage • OCFT
• Operating CF • WC
• CAPEX • FA
Dep处理: MACRS折 • W.C.investment
旧会查 --> higher TNOCF = NWClnv +SalT
Initial outlay = OCF = (S-C-D)(1-t) +D
ATCF&higher NPV - t(SalT - BT)
-FClnv - NWClnv =(S-C)(1-t)+D*t
Terminating
Operating stage
Initial stage
stage • OCFT
Replacement • WC
projects • CAPEX • Operating CF
• Sale of old FA
• W.C.investment
• Cash collected TNOCF = NWClnv +SalT
∆CF = (∆ S- ∆C)(1-t) - t(SalT - BT)
Initial outlay =
+∆D*t
-FClnv - NWClnv
+ [Salo -t(Salo - Bo)]
40-102
Mutually exclusive projects with different lives
Risk Analysis 计算
,
风险
• Sensitivity analysis 体验 R project Rf project E RM Rf
Discount
• Scenario analysis
rate
risk-adjusted rate rather than WACC
• Monte Carlo simulation
判断WACC对估值影响
• Timing options
计算
• Sizing options
Overall NPV= project NPV (based on DCF)+
• Flexibility options
option value - option cost
• Fundamental options 一
3 0 ?
41-102
判断一个项目对企业的影响
Economic income Vs. Accounting income
Economic income =
( F e
G Accounting income
-
RI t
EPt NPV t
NPV MVA t
t 1 1 re
t 1 1 WACC
V firm MVA investment VE NPV BVE
42-102
R24
Capital Structure
43-102
Capital Structure Objective
• Minimize the firm's WACC and maximize the firm's value
• Not maximum EPS or ROE
给
es NI
• MM's proposition E
(1 %
'
u equity
=
0。
44-102
不同国家融资偏好 掌握结论
Country-specific factors Use of Total Debt Debt Maturity
Institutional and Legal Factors
Strong legal System Lower Longer
Less Information Asymmetry Lower Longer
Favorable Tax Rates on Dividends Lower N/A
Common Law as Opposed to Civil Law Lower Longer
Financial Market Factors
46-102
红利对公司价值影响 影响分红因素
• Dividend policy does not • Investment opportunities
matter • Expected volatility of Effective tax rate
• Dividend policy matters: future earnings
Bird in hand argument • Financial flexibility • Double-taxation
• Dividend policy • Tax considerations 展开 • Split-tax rate system
matters:Tax averslon • Flotation costs • Tax-imputation
• Clientele effect---> 计算 • Contractual and legal system
f
• Signaling restrictions
• Agency issues
掌握各个理论的影响 掌握各因素如何影响分红
… … … … .
dividend policies 概念,计算
• Stable dividend policy _ 灬 … 的
…
… y y
为什么应该用repurchase而不是cash div ? 概念
47-102
R26
48-102
Stakeholders of a company
Internal Stakeholders
Classification Interests and Concerns
Stockholders
Employees Managers Maximize the return on their investment
Managers Salary, job satisfaction, etc.
Board members
External Stakeholders
Classification Interests and Concerns
Customers Reliable products
Suppliers Revenues and dependable buyers
Creditors Receive principle and interest on time
Governments Companies to obey the rules
Unions Union members' benefit
Local communities Responsible citizens
General public The quality of life will be improved
customers, employees, and stockholders 最重要 49-102
Principal-Agent Problem
Potential conflicts between Details
•Using funds to expand the size of the firm (empire building).
Managers and •Granting excessive compensation and perquisites.
shareholders •Investing in risky ventures.
•Not taking enough risk.
• Lack of independence.
• Board members have personal relationships with
management.
Directors and shareholders • Board members have consulting or other business
agreements with the firm.
• Interlinked boards.
• Directors are overcompensated .
• Self-dealing • Substandard working conditions
不良行为来源--->概念 • Information manipulation • Environmental degradation
• Anticompetitive behavior • Corruption
• Opportunistic exploitation
The Friedman Ooctrine;Utilitarian and Kantian Ethics;
关于Ethics的发展--->了解
Rights Theories;Justice Theories
50-102
R27
Corporate Governance
51-102
公司治理作用
Corporate governance 定义
• Eliminate or reduce conflicts of interest
两个目标 • Use the company's assets in a manner consistent with the
best interests of investors and other stakeholders
核心作用
• Qualification of directors;
Responsibilities • Annual election of directors;
• Annual self-assessment;
Board of • Separate sessions of independent directors;
Directors Evaluate • 3 committees (audit, nominating and
Effectiveness of compensation);
BOD • Independent or expert legal counsel;
• Statement of policies;
• Disclosure and transparency;
• Insider or related party transactions;
• Shareholder proxy votes;
各项具体展开,了解概念
54-102
并购基本概念
55-102
不同生命周期阶段并购目的
Types of
Life cycle Industry characteristic Motivations
mergers
• Substantial development cost;
Pioneering • Sell to larger and mature company; • Conglomerate
• Low, slowly increasing sales
Development • Young firms merge to pool resource. • Horizontal
growth.
Rapid
• High profit margins caused by few • Large capital required to expand • Conglomerate
Accelerating
participants in the market. capacity to grow. • Horizontal
Growth
• Drop in the entry of new • To achieve economies of
Mature • Vertical
competition; scale/synergies, and operational
Growth • Horizontal
•Still have growth potential. efficiencies.
• Economies of scale to match the low
cost and price performance of other
Stabilization • Increasing competition; companies.
• Horizontal
and Market • capacity constraints. • Large firms acquire small firms to
improve management and reach a
broader financial base.
• Horizontal merger to survive;
• Vertical to increase efficiency and • Conglomerat
Deceleration • Over capacity;
profit; • Horizontal
and Decline • Eroding profit margin.
• Merge to exploit synergy; • Vertical
• May acquirer target in young industry.
56-102
Form of acquisition 掌握区别
Tax: corporate •No corporate level tax. •Target company pays capital gains taxes.
不好 stock
,
Changes in capital structure
57-102
面对并购态度 掌握定义
Friendly merger
失败 Tender offer
Hostile merger offers Bear hug
Proxy battle
Pre-Offer Takeover Defense
Flip-in pill: target shareholders have right to buy shares at a discount--->最有效
Flip-over pill: target shareholders have right to buy acquirer's shares at a
Poison pill discount;
Dead hand provision: allows the board of the target to redeem or cancel the poison
pill only by a vote of the continuing directors.
Poison put It allows bondholders to put the bonds to the target.
Companies that want to avoid a potential hostile merger offer may seek to
Takeover laws
reincorporate in a state that has enacted strict anti-takeover laws.
It delays the control of boards by acquiring company due to freeze of election of
Staggered board
most of board members in the coming future.
Restricts stockholders who have recently acquired large blocks of stock from voting
Restricted voting rights their shares.
supermajority voting Requires shareholder support in excess of a simple majority.
Provision for mergers
A term in corporate charter and bylaws that disallow mergers for which the offer is
Fair price amendment
below a certain threshold.
Golden parachutes Allows target senior management to receive lucrative payouts if leave.
58-102
Post-offer defense mechanisms
If the acquirer attempts a bear hug or tender offer, then target management
“Just say no" defense lobbies the BOD and shareholders to decline and build a case for why the offer
is not in the shareholders' best interests.
File a lawsuit against the acquirer based on alleged violation of securities or
Litigation
antitrust law.
An agreement that allows the target to repurchase its own shares back from
Greenmail
the acquiring company at a premium to the market orice.
share repurchase Submit a tender offer for its own shares.
leveraged recapitalization Repurchase of shares with assumption of a large amount of debt.
Crown jewel defense Target sells off assets to party upon announcement of taking-over.
Pac-man defense Offer to acquire the acquiring company.
White knight defense The target company to seek a third party to acquire the target.
White squire defense The target seeks a friendly-party to buy a substantial minority stake the target.
61-102
CFA 二级总复习串讲
Equity
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Framework
R27 Equity Valuation: Applications and Processes
SS9 Valuation Concepts
R28 Return Concepts
SS10 Industry and R29 Industry and Company Analysis
Company Analysis and R30 Discounted Dividend Valuation
Discounted Dividend
Valuation
R31 Free Cash Flow Valuation
SS11 Free Cash Flow R32 Market-Based Valuation: Price and Enterprise Value
and Other Valuation Multiples
Models R33 Residual Income Valuation
R34 Private Company Valuation
63-102
R27
64-102
估值基础(不做重点掌握,概念)
估值定义 估值步骤 估值目标
估值方法
Athena
Sum-of-the-parts Valuation 概念
At Bt (
,
65-102
R28
Return Concepts
66-102
HPR Required return
Realized return Expected return 与要求回报率关系
Expected return IRR
'
EN 不 ki valued
f籝
1. 、
average
Equity risk premium
吵 ERPtteirfflm.ly
竹
2 long
R f 选择→短期国债vs长期国债
、
short
Historical estimate
3. survivorship
平均值算法→ 算术平均vs几何平 均 ( 小 )
欧 成 心
valued Time period →越长越好 整个 市场 do yield 资
「
'
GGM 计算,适用条件 星 ERP
g g
一
-
_ 一
67-102
Required return Beta drift
Lever up beta 1 (D / E)
E U
o n equity
Required Return = RF + mktj ( Rmkt RF )
size
Multifactor FFM
Small/large cap SMB, j ( Rsmall Rbig )
model High/low book- style
( RHBM RLBM ) PSM
to-market SMB, j
计算、系数 liquid , liq
含义,区别 i ( RLL RHL )
β S M B , j > 0,small-cap No 就是前 一个
a At 非上市
Build-up method 计算,适用范围
International Consideration
69-102
Botton-up analysis
概念,掌握原理
Top-down analysis
原理
Hybrid analysis
dusted % → 100 × 4 1
一
4 %) + (
1
场
in
:
2
GDP 4%
二
,
改进
Revenue→通胀影响 计算 不 定 大新 产品影响 1日产品
COGS→Economies of scale影响,科技进步影响
gross 附 比 magin
DCF预测未来 SG&A
Gross interest expense
CF Financing cost 概念,计算
I/S表预测 Income tax expense
Net interest expense
:
70-102
R30
71-102
DP
优先股 VP 计算
kP D0 (1 g e ) D1
P0 假设
re g e re g e 1. D>0
GGM D0 (1 RR ) EPS 2. D以g速
度永续
D0 1 g e g e ROE RR 增长
P0
re g e 3. Re>g
re RFR ( Rmkt RFR ) 优缺点
PVGO 计算 V0 E0 / r PVGO
歮
E 。
( no
grow 以
普通股
、
Two Stage
Multi-Stage Model Three Stage
计算 H-Model 与三阶段模型结合
D0 (1 g L ) D0 H ( g s gL ) t
V0 H
r gL 2
t
E 昃 :1
1 1
一
A 二
E1不 x
险
thing Eriksen淼
:
队 一
二
三
'
leading :
Ealy
to
Pree
E6
R31
73-102
disposal 华
在
笓 dat G末 h初
照
二
heed
一
Gk CAP Ex
/
a = -
minority
-7
DD M
From NI : FCFF ( NI NCC WC ) Int (1 T ) FCINV T
INV
F4二 control
FCFF From EBIT : FCFF EBIT (1 T ) Dep FCINV WCINV 皌 th disposal
→
G初
wace
From EBITDA : FCFF EBITDA (1 T ) Dep T FCINV WCINV A .
昩 A 一
.
1 7初 二
G
From CFO : FCFF CFO Int (1 T ) FCINV
From NI : FCFE NI (1 DR ) ( FCINV Dep ) (1 DR ) WC INV
FCF计算
0
From EBIT : FCFE = EBIT (1 T ) Int (1 T ) Dep
脚
囖
㽋
'
一
From CFO : FCFE =CFO FCINV Net Borrowing
-2
re
From FCFF : FCFE FCFF -Int (1- T ) NetBorrowing
Given Debt ratio : FCFE NI Dep WC Inv FC INV
(WCINV FCINV Dep ) DR
Single-Stage Model
FCF估值
计算,同DDM Two-Stage Model
Single-stage
求终值
Multiple approach
Three-Stage Model '
74-102
FCF特殊处理
Depreciation/ Amortization →+
Restructuring charges and other noncash losses→+
NCC Income from restructuring charge →-
Amortization of a bond discount→+,bond premium →
DTL→+,DTA→-
76-102
补充 historical average EPS
P/E Normalizing EPS
计算,比较 average ROE
P/B
PEG 计算 缺点
P/S 补充
Price
组合P/E计算 缺点
Multiple P/CF 四种CF计算→ EV/EBITDA EV计算,优缺点
猜答案 比较 上 去除 影响
/ 与
tax
l NI
C FC F 𠃋 C leverage
Dividend Yield MVacash-shont.me
Net
t
investment
CFC FE \ a
Pruexsháe
只 long term 03 D & A
Momentum Valuation Indicators 技术分析指标,简单了解
77-102
both
越小 越 好
g growth
我
然
叫 Justyied MB =
毙 二
1十
名
擧 01 13 。 > 0 0 3。
1 stable
Justified 1
2
15 二
Justified ME ×
0
喜
- net 附 比 margin
R33
78-102
股东
Rresidual Income (Economic Profit) 与Corporate Finance
概念 公司 E 定义不同
EVA (Economic Value Added)
概念,计算 2 折 现 求合 假设
Clean surplus relation
Market Value Added (MVA)
、
MUA MV time capital
与DDM & FCFE区
二
见 《 ROE.rs
估值 别 3
urge
+
Single-Stage Valuation 计算
二 1 。
概念,计算
Valuation
, Continuing Residual Income 4种假设计算,本质
适用范围 就是GGM 多 考第 4 种
79-102
R34
80-102
㡭
䶩
C nonrecurring
概念,了解
非上市公司
嘴
及股票特征 Normalized earnings 计算
Income Approach CF 调整
Strategic and nonstrategic buyers
01 total gngl
筑
ear-F.lt
估值 十 control premium
Guideline Public Company Method (GPCM)
Market Approach Guideline Transactions Method (GTM)
Prior Transaction Method (PTM)
计算, 适用范围
应 ... /
1 -
( 1 D La ) (
一 1 一
DLO M )
81-102
CFA 二级总复习串讲
Alternative Investments
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Framework
R43 Private Real Estate Investments
83-102
Introduction
Income Approach
Private Valuation Cost Approach
Real Estate Sales Comparison Approach
Investment Analysis and Evaluation
Types
Public Why Public Traded Advantages
Traded & Disadvantages
Real Estate Characters & Risks
Securities REITs
Subtypes
NAVPS,P/FFO,P/AFFO,DCF
Private
Equity PE Funds Characters Investment
Valuation Terms, Fees and Valuation
Buyout Funds
NPV method
I Venture Capital
IRR method I
84-102
R43
85-102
Forms of Real Estate
两个维度,房地产投资总体框架。本Reading介绍Private投资,下个Reading介绍Public投资。
Debt Equity
• .Direct investments
Private Mortgages
• .Partnerships
• Other
. forms of commingled
funds
Public MBS Shares of REITs and REOCs
H
租金
Operating Gross lease 租客 只付
Office Net lease 租客 全 担
Expenses P
Expenses reimbursement 代缴
86-102
房地产投资基本概念汇总
Real Estate Characteristics Reasons to Invest
Heterogeneity Current income
High unit value Capital appreciation
Active management Inflation hedge
High transaction costs
Diversification
Depreciation and desirability
Cost and availability of debt Tax benefits
Lack of liquidity 概念,简单了解即可
Difficulty in determining price
Risks to Invest in Real Estate
概念, REITs区别 Business conditions
Private投资分类 New property lead time
分类1: Cost and availability of capital
Residential properties Unexpected inflation
Non-residential properties Demographic factors
Mixed-use development Lack of liquidity
分类2: Environmental issues
Commercial Real Estate Availability of information
Non-commercial real estate Management expertise
Unique categories Leverage
概念,简单了解即可 Other factors 概念,简单了解即可
87-102
房地产估值
88-102
Income Approach—Direct Capitalization Method
NOI折现
i
NOI1 补充 Stabilized NOI 计算
value= V0 =
g V ← cap rate All risks yield(ARY) 计算
计算 ,求cap rate Rent1
' value =V0=
_ 设owner支付费用
假 ARY net → lease 的 cap rate
假设tenant支付费用
V
lease
gross
89-102
Income Approach—DCF Method
t
二阶段模型,同GGM 特指 二 阶段
第二阶段求终值,再折现
Direct Income Approach→MVn = NOIn+1(r-g) = NOln+1/ Rn
二 阶段
Rn → Terminal Cap Rate/Residual Cap Rate 不同于 Going-in
ctti
nil 8 7
Cap Rate
in
阶段
。
一
,
、
·a
1
stage 7
st :
7 。
2 nd 8 7 不变
:
stage
同Equity中求
。
纵 分 卞
L
Term and Reversion Approach
折现 计算,Equity 中两阶段模型
二
𠃊
横分 , 注意两个阶段折现率不同
Layer Method
90-102
Cost Approach
91-102
First-year NOI loan
DSCR =
i
Ex
Debt Service
Loan Amount En
选 最低
Debt Investment loan
'
计算
92-102
R44
93-102
Advantages and Disadvantages of Public Traded Securities
Public投资Advantages t
REIT-specific Advantages Disadvantages
Superior Liquidity Exemption from Taxation Taxes VS Direct Ownership
䬔
Lower Minimum Investment Lack of Control REIT
长
Predictable Earnings
Limited Liability High Yield 三0 L Costs of Corporate Structure
Access to Premium Properties Price Close to Stock Market
Active Management REIT-specific Disadvantages Conflicts of Interest
Protections Accorded Lack of flexibility Limited Income Growth
Diversification Forced Equity Issuance
Economic value Determinants of REITs (概念,记住第一及第二影响因素)
Retail Now Space
National Populatio
REIT Type Job Creation Sales Supply VS
GDP growth n Growth
Growth Demand
:
Shopping/Retail 1 3 2 4 4
Office 1 2 5 4 3
8
:
Healthcare 1 4 5 2 3
Industrial 1 5 2 3 4
Hotel 1 2 5 4 3
Storage 1 3 5 2 4
94-102
Remaining lease terms
Inflation protection
In-place rents versus market rents
Due Diligence
Costs to re- ease space
considerations of
Tenant concentration in the portfolio
REITs
Tenants' financial health
New competition
Balance sheet analysis
Quality of management
95-102
ON 上 = real estate value
rate
cap
Rio
other asset : cash A
at
.
liability 二
NAV
4 i shares
NAVPS Most appropriate measure 计算,注意Cash NOI
Valuation
比FFO更好方法
FFO (funds from operations)
-Non-cash (stra ight-line) rent adjustment
P/AFFO : - Recurri ng maintenance -type capital expenditures and
leasing commissions
= AFFO (adjlJsted funds from operatio ns)
96-102
R45
97-102
Value creation in PE Control Mechanism
不仅
Re-engineer the firm 投钱 Compensation
Obtain debt financing Tag-along, drag-along clauses
Better alignment of interests Board representation
Non-compete clauses
Priority in claims
Required approvals
Earn-outs
概念
Economic terms of a PE
fund
Management fees Performance disclosure dydedtdawbak-totalat.am
Tmsaction fees Confidentiality 赚钱 的 deal 分 ,
亏 钱 的 不分
飚
了
8 两个 基金 投 不 一样
的
98-102
PE Fund投资相关 概念为主
个
Performance Cost Tax Risk Curt Gets
Dilution Cost Valuation Risk 巤 to持 股 ?
彲 邈
二 00
04 器
Valuation
VC VC Method 计算(一轮/多轮融资〉
GP对Company估值 05
Buyout Buyout Method 计算 w 一
debt
10 0 debt d to
VC与Buyout 区别
几 肛 debt
以 equity
LP对GP估值
一 二
PIC/DPI/PVR/TVPI 计算
_
附 erred
a 哈
DP It NPITVPI 99-102
R46
100-102
Storability
特征
Renewability
Energy
=
Natural gas
Refined product
Commodity 了解各个commodity的
Grains 特点以及各生命周期
分类 Industrial mental 影响 因素
Livestock
Precious mental
Softs(cash corps)
了解各个participants的特点
101-102
Convenience Yield 投资期货
投资现货
Storage Cost 对比
Contangos
Futures return Hedging Pressure 印 5 P
二
的理论 Hypothesis
Theory of Storage
器4 , me Roll Return= (St-Ft,T)/St
Spot Return
Roll Return Backwardation →Positive roll return
投资Futures收益 Collateral Return Contango→Negative roll return
收益的分类 Rebalancing Return's 去年 化
Breadth of coverage
Excess Return Swap Weightings
Commodity Total Return Swap Commodity Rolling methodology
swap Basis Swap Indexes Methodology
Variance swaps Frequency for rebalancing
Governance of indexes
102-102