16th July 2021 JANUS ANALYSIS

Potash & Phosphate - Investing in Global Growth

• Global population forecast to peak at 9.7Bn in 2064

• Decreasing arable land implies increasingly higher fertiliser consumption
• Global transition from wheat/rice, toward proteins and fruit/vegetables
• 30-50% of modern crop yields reliant on natural and/or synthetic fertilisers
• Global potash demand over the past six years ~ 3.1% CAGR
• 26-year seaborne potash demand ~2.4% CAGR
• Est. 34% upside from spot to our LT potash price
• 21-year seaborne phosphate shipments growing ~2.8% CAGR
• Est. 50% upside from spot to our LT phosphate-rock price
• BUY Recommendation Nutrien (TSX: NTR) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS)

The fertiliser industry for the better part of a decade, has been plagued by
overcapacity and poor utilisation. Our analysis suggests that fundamentally, both
the potash and phosphate consumption is approaching production constraints.
Unlike other commodities, the demand drivers for these two fertilisers are related
to long-run improvements in human habitation. As economies develop and
become more technologically advanced, hard commodity requirements lessen, but
in contrast, consumption of proteins, fruit and vegetables have increase
dramatically. To sustain this dietary transition, coupled with an increasing global
population, the continued economic development in many jurisdictions is directly
related to the unremitting growth and supply of fertilisers.
Potash is a highly regulated oligopolistic market, projects are typically very large
operations, high capex, with long lead times, implying that the industry will continue
to be dominated by larger players. The phosphate market, in contrast, largely
consists of numerous smaller producers, with global supplies increasingly reliant
on Chinese production and resources based out of North Africa. The continued
concentration of these resources and the trend for producers to become more
vertically integrated, however, means that phosphate market structure will soon be
akin to that of potash. But, herein lies the potential for smaller players to participate
in localised markets covering both these commodities, taking advantage of
transport arbitrage opportunities.
We are so confident that the potash and phosphate markets are currently under-
priced on a long-term basis, that we have selected several higher-cost producers
as Buy recommendations; on the basis that increased revenues per unit sold will
provide the investor with greater leverage to upside profitability and capital
appreciation. Nutrien (TSX: NTR), is a Saskatchewan based potash producer
(making up ~45-50% of EBITDA), with its future profitability highly leveraged to the
underlying commodity price. Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) produces ~25Mtpa of finished
potash (~21% EBITDA) and phosphate (~34% EBITDA) concentrate, forecast
Gaius L.L. King 2Mtpa potash (up from ~9.5Mtpa currently).
We think that fertilisers are an opportunity to invest in global growth and
development without the risk of strong price fluctuations as seen in other
commodities, which are more leveraged to the ongoing business cycle.
 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Table of Contents

Page

Fertiliser Introduction – Potash, Phosphate and Nitrogen 3

Potash

What is Potash? 6

Potash Market Structure 8

Potash Production Techniques 9

Potash Supply Dynamics 10

Potash Prices and Forecast 13

Phosphate

What is Phosphate? 15

Phosphate Market Structure 16

Phosphate Production Techniques 17

Phosphate Supply Dynamics 18

Phosphate Prices and Forecast 19

Potash/Phosphate Recommendations 21

Appendix A - Fertiliser Demand Drivers

Increasing Global Population 22

Decreasing Arable Land 23

Rise of the Urban Middle Class and Dietary Changes 24

Future Biofuel Demand 25

Disclosures 27

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Introduction – Potash, Phosphate and Nitrogen

Potash, phosphate and nitrogen are natural fertiliser substances used in the
agricultural industry. Some conservative estimates suggest that 30-50% of
modern crop yields can be directly attributed to the application of natural and/or
synthetic commercial fertilisers. As a result of agricultural extraction, a variety of
macro- nutrients can become so depleted that their absence can inhibit the
normal biological process. An optimal fertiliser application involves a
combination of all three of these crop macro-nutrients, each have different
biological attributes, and for the most part, do not compete with one another.
Typically, soils that are rich in one area are normally deficient in another.

Figures 1, 2, 3 & 4: Fertiliser consumption patterns vary dramatically from country to country and crop-type to crop-type. Weather,
geography and soil differences in soil quality imply that not all regions are able to achieve the same yields. The US is the biggest producer
of maize and soybeans, while China is the largest producer of rice; both rely on significant applications of fertiliser.
12 6
11 5.4
Maize yields 5.3
Wheat yields
10 5

8 7.4 4
3.5
Tonnes/Ha

Tonnes/Ha

5.9 3.1
6 3 2.7
4.3
3.7
4 2

2 1

0 0
US Argentina China Brazil Mexico China France US India Russia
8
4
3.5 Soybean yields 6.9 Rice yields
3.5 7

3
3 2.9 6 5.6
5.4

2.5 5 4.6
Tonnes/Ha
Tonnes/Ha

2 4 3.7
1.8

1.5 3
1.2

1 2

0.5 1

0 0
US Argentina Brazil China India China Vietnam Indonesia Bangladesh India

Source: FAOSTAT (2016), Janus Analysis

The Green Revolution describes a period post WWII, associated with the
development of high-yield cereal crops, the expansion of irrigation infrastructure,
pesticides, and critically, the application of fertilisers. The net result was that the
price of corn, rice and other staples became 75% lower in real-terms by the
middle of the 1980s than what they were in the 1950s. Furthermore, prices
remained at those lower levels, largely achieved without the expansion of
farmland and/or pasture via increasing yields. Presently, cereals account for
more than half of the world’s food consumption (if grain for livestock is included),
with yields averaging three tonnes per hectare, approximately double that of the
1960s (see Figures 1 to 4, e.g. coming Indian soybean yields with that of the US).

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Potassium (Potash) - has been biologically proven to improve root strength,

water retention, yield, nutrient value, taste, colour, texture and disease resistance
of food crops. With a high solubility, it leaches quickly out of rocky or sandy soils
that typically display potassium deficiency. It serves as an activator of enzymes
in photosynthesis and respiration, is used to build cellulose and aids the
formation of a chlorophyll precursor. In China, the cultivation of fruit and
vegetables consumes 50% of its domestic potash demand, with rice taking a
further 28%. In Brazil, 75% of its potash is utilised to produce soybean, sugar
cane and corn cultivation (see Figure 5). In Malaysia and Indonesia, 70% of
potash is directed toward palm oil cultivation. More than 45% of potash
consumed in the United States is dedicated to growing corn, much of it is
eventually directed toward feedlot and biofuel industries. By contrast, India
produces no potash domestically, but consumes six times more nitrogen as a
result of high import duties and domestic subsidies.

Figure 5: Potash by selected country.

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Europe Brazil Indonesia
Corn Sugar Soybean Oilpalm Fruit/Veg. Other
Source: FAO (2017), Janus Analysis

Phosphorus (Phosphate) – helps with photosynthesis and plays a major role in

biological molecules such as RNA and DNA, forming part of the structural
framework. It is also an important component of bones and teeth, and is a critical
constituent in the molecule adenosine triphosphate, more commonly known as
ATP; used to transport cellular energy in all living cells. Known as “life’s
bottleneck” because it makes up 1% of an organism, but is only present in 0.1%
of the Earth’s crust (primarily granites).

Nitrogen builds proteins and enzymes, being a critical component in all amino
acids and is present in nucleic acids. It is used in chlorophyll molecules,
essential for photosynthesis and further growth. Nitrogen can be introduced into
the soil several ways; organically via the growth of legumes (e.g. soybeans, peas
and peanuts), or commercially, by sourcing hydrogen from natural gas and
combining it with the atmosphere to create ammonia (NH3). Ammonia is
produced by reacting nitrogen with hydrogen from natural gas in a high P/T (200-
300 bars and around 450°C) via the Haber process. The resultant anhydrous
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

ammonia is then stored as a liquid under pressure or is refrigerated, then

typically converted into other types of fertilisers. Urea is produced in a reaction of
ammonia with carbon dioxide at high pressure. Ammonium nitrate and urea can
be further combined (colloquially known as UAN) and the resultant concentrate is
then converted into a solid granular form.

Although Nitrogen is a major fertiliser sector globally (e.g. ammonia, ammonium

nitrate, and urea), with global production at nearly 100Mt pa, it is more of a
manufacturing process, utilising natural gas as a primary feedstock and is outside
the scope of this report; which concentrates on deposits that primarily display
geological enrichment. Nitrogen’s price and demand is strongly related to natural
gas and other input costs. By contrast, potash or phosphate production costs
have a greater extractive component to overall production costs, thereby a closer
correlation to the eventual project profitability.

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Potash

What is Potash?

Potash refers to potassium-bearing materials and compounds, the most common

of which is potassium chloride (KCl). Potassium is the seventh most common
element in the world and occurs in abundance. All major potash deposits are of
marine origin and are formed by the evaporation of sea water under solar
evaporation, usually in an arid climate. This process was repeated on and off
over millions of years, resulting in salt layers with varying mineral contents and
thicknesses. These layers are typically interspersed with impermeable clay
preventing the various salt layers from being dissolved.

Global potash deposits typically grade around 10-30% K2O, and are found at
depths of over 1km. Potassium oxide (K2O) is used to define the potassium
content of fertilisers, with the conversion factor for KCl into K2O being 0.631 (KCl
is typically 60- 63% K2O). Potash fertiliser most commonly comes in the form of
“Muriate of Potash” (“MOP” or KCl), and less commonly in other forms such as
“Sulphate of Potash” (“SOP” or potassium sulphate, K2SO4).

Figure 6: Evaporite hosted potash resources, including both potash deposits/occurrences and potash
basins that could contain undiscovered economically viable deposits.

Source: Cocker et al.1 (2016), Janus Analysis

Geologically, MOP potash-bearing minerals occur naturally as sylvite (KCl),

sylvinite (KCl plus salt, NaCl) or, less commonly, as carnallite (potassium
magnesium chloride). Generally, sylvinite can be processed by conventional
processing methods, while carnallite requires additional energy to break down
the magnesium component. SOP (hydrated sulphate of potassium, containing
calcium, magnesium, but no chlorine) commands a price premium of 35-45%
(higher cost of production) is dominated by China, accounting for more than 45%

1
Cocker, M.D., Orris, G.J., and Wynn, J., (2016) “U.S. Geological Survey assessment of
global potash production and resources...” (abbrev.) in Geological Society of America
Special Paper 520
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

of global demand being the world's largest producer of tobacco, fruits and
vegetables; premium crops better suited to the application of SOP. Polyhalite
(e.g. Sirius) has a small and relatively untested market. Many other types exist
too. Unsurprisingly, the largest markets for potash are China (20%), Brazil
(16%), the USA (15%) and India (14%) (see Figure 7); with the largest
consumption by crop being grains, fruit and vegetables, oil seed and
sugar/cotton, in that order (see Figure 8).

Figures 7 & 8: Geographical growth in absolute terms per region (left); and Potash use by crop, with largest consumer being grains (right).

W. Asia Africa
Europe 6%
2% 13% Other
14%

Latin & S. Grains

Sugar/Cotton
America 36%
11%
27%
S. Asia
20%
Oil Seed
17%
E. Asia
(inclu.
Fruit/Veg.
China)
N. 22%
29%
America
3%

Source: FAO (2017), FAO, IFA, Janus Analysis

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Potash Market Structure

The potash market is best described as being relatively oligopolistic/collusive,

with suppliers curtailing supply when perceived demand has diminished. With
the price set by the larger manufacturers, smaller producers are typically price-
takers. Thus, the oligopoly-controlled price market is arguably a positive attribute
because it reduces market risks inherent in typical commodity investment via
price volatility and product development.

There are two main marketing collectives that supply potash. The first being
Cantopex (Canada) - comprising Nutrien (TSX: NTR - combined entity of Agrium
and Potash Corp) and Mosaic (MOC.US); and Balarussian Potash Company
(“BPC” – Russia and Belarus), comprising Balaruskali and Uralkali (see Figure
19). Other producers include Vale, Rio Tinto, Intrepid, Kali & Salz (K+S), Migao,
Sinofert, Arab Potash Company (APC) and BHP Billiton (not yet in production,
with expansion FID expected 2H21).

Figures 9 & 10: Potash suppliers, with the top ten producers (via four marketing organisations) controlling 85% of global capacity (left);
and seaborne potash shipments to end-user consumers, with China, Brazil and North America accounting for just under 60% (right).

Seaborne
share
Others
13% Belaruskali
ICL 18% China
6% Rest 25%
34%
K+S
8%
Nutrien
18%
QSL Brazil
9% 17%
E. Europe/FSU N.
Mosaic 9%
Uralkali America
11%
17% 15%

Source: CRU (2020), IFA, Mosaic (2020), Janus Analysis

In an industry dominated by high capex and deep resources, we believe there is

a unique opportunity for minor operators to develop smaller, relatively low capex
projects supplying localised demand without inciting a market response from any
of the major participants. We believe, in many cases, operating margins will
likely outperform other commodities over the length of an economic cycle; the
combination of consistent returns coupled with long-life assets are attracting
participation by majors, including BHP and Rio, among others.

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Potash Production Techniques

The majority (~80%) of potash supply is mined from underground ore deposits
utilising conventional mining techniques (e.g. room & pillar), with the ore typically
being extracted via conveyor belt systems and shafts. Once on the surface, the
ore is crushed and (using a floatation process) impurities such as salt and clay
particles are removed. The coarse fraction is screened and is typically ready for
distribution, while the fine fraction is usually compacted into sheets, then crushed
and re-screened. Flotation is the most common method of processing; less
commonly, utilising electrostatic separation, thermal dissolution and heavy media
separation.

Figure 11: Potash beneficiation flow chart.

Source: PotashCorp, Janus Analysis

Several operations, especially deeper deposits in the Saskatchewan (up to

3,000m), utilise solution mining techniques where warm water (typically +40o C.)
is injected into the ground, dissolving the potash minerals, which are then
extracted and pumped into evaporation ponds. As the brine cools, salt and
potash re-precipitate and settle at the bottom of the ponds. The precipitate is
dried and then screened using a similar process to the one above. These
typically have a lower capital cost and reduced construction time but higher
operating costs, due mainly to increased energy usage. An example of potash
being harvested from a surface brines include that which occurs in the Dead Sea,
Israel.

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Potash Supply Dynamics

The global potash market is relatively small at ~61Mt KCl, with around 95% of
supply used in agriculture as an essential plant nutrient, whilst the remaining 5%
is consumed in a wide range of industrial applications. Only 12 countries
produce potash, but it is consumed by more than 180 globally, and as a result,
approximately 75-80% of potash production moves across international borders.

In North America, Canpotex controls export sales of Nutrien and Mosaic; each
firm is assigned a quota in line with their productive capacity. In Eastern Europe,
a second syndicate, the Belarusian Potash Corporation (BPC) control sales from
both Russian and Belarusian production. Cooperatively, these two syndicates
hold a dominant position in the potash market at round 56% of the global total
(see Figure 13). Moreover, there is a history of close cooperation between the
two syndicates, with Russian producer Uralkali being a member of Canpotex
between 2001 and 2003.

Figures 12 & 13: Global potash Reserves (K2O basis) (left); and Global 2020E potash production (right).

Production

Other
21% Canada
32%

China
12%

Russia Belarus
18% 17%

Source: USGS (2021), Janus Analysis

At last count, there were more than three dozen proposed potash mines or
capacity expansions that had been announced publicly. We believe, for a variety
of reasons, ranging from the size of capex, technical issues and the general lack
of finance, that very few of these projects outside existing major potash
producers will be developed anytime in the near-future. Potash projects are
typically very capital intensive: BHP’s Jansen Stag 1 project has an expected
capex ~US$5.7Bn to bring an 8Mtpa greenfield potash mine and mill into
production, taking a minimum seven-year timeframe with the commencement of
construction reaching nameplate production. This figure does not include
infrastructure outside the plant gates, including rail/road networks, utility systems,
and port facilities.

With the exception of the sub-prime crisis in 2008/09, seaborne consumption of

potash globally has been relatively consistent (see Figure 14), with a ~2.4%
CAGR over the past 26-years; implying that demand doubles roughly every 30-
years. The key consideration is that although global potash resources are
significant, their distribution is inequitable, and importantly, not yet developed in
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

many countries where large national population and economic requirements

underlie increasing demand.

Figure 14: Global seaborne potash shipments (from 1995 to 2020F) on a KCl basis.

Source: IFA, CRU, Mosaic (2020), Janus Analysis

Currently, the largest consumers of potash have been developed economies,

namely the US and Europe; with global growth in demand over the past six-years
at ~3.1% pa (see Figure 15), materially higher than the 2.4% CAGR average in
Figure 14 covering a 26-year period. If this is representative of the new normal, it
would imply that global consumption will double every 23 years. Interestingly,
this growth in demand is being driven by Africa and South and West Asia, which
not only share similar climatic conditions, but have a robust population and
economic growth. BHP believe that demand for potash could double by the late
2040s, at which point, it could be a ~US$50Bn market.

Figure 15: Global Potash consumption growth (CAGR between 2015-2020).

Source: FAO (2017), Janus Analysis

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

The largest fundamental driver of potash consumption is the growth in cereal

cropping, in large part, driven by protein production via feed lots. Negative K
balance (K removed > K inputs) in soils are typically observed among many
cereal cropping systems, beans, millets, grasslands and other staple crops. The
colloid-chemical interaction of mono- and bivalent cations (K+ and Mg) regulates
the permeability of plasma colloids, whilst cation saturation determines water
uptake and release, favouring the fluid uptake of plants via their mycorrhizal root
network, whilst lowering moisture release via the stomata of leaves; together
enabling plants to withstand and adjust to weather extremities. For example,
Brazilian soils are naturally deficient in potassium, and as a nation, is reliant on
importing ~90% of its demand to maintain current production of sugar cane,
soybeans, rice and corn. Brazil is also the world’s second largest beef exporter,
much of it reliant on industrial-scale feed-lots, which in turn is reliant on grain
supplies that need regular potash application to optimise yields.

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Potash Pricing and Forecast

The relatively tight demand/supply dynamics is, in large part, due to an

oligopolistic market, whereby producers (in the medium term) are able to tailor
outputs to meet perceived demand. The quadrupling in price in mid 2008 (see
Figure 18) over a relatively short period of time (>$800/t at its peak) was due, in
part, to the speculative nature of the materials boom which was prevalent at the
time, together with rampant demand for biofuels (supported by generous
subsidies in some jurisdictions) leading to food shortages in some parts of the
world. Additional supply was brought online following elevated pricing from 2008
through to 2013, primarily from Russia, Belarus and Canada, which inundated
prevailing demand, thereby depressing prices for most of the following decade.

Unlike most other commodities, potash demand is not cyclical; although related
to soft commodity pricing, potash consumption overall is highly correlated to long-
term economic development within jurisdictions, with demand only declining
temporarily during periods of economic dislocation (e.g. see 2008/09 in Figure
14); even then, arguably, only having a modest impact of pricing (see Figure 16).
It wasn’t until 2014, when a number of large expansion projects came online, that
the long-term price found a new lower equilibrium.

Figure 16: Potassium Chloride Monthly Price (US$/t).

Source: IndexMundi (2021), Janus Analysis

In recent times, the over-supply dynamic has begun to wane as demand is

quickly approaching nameplate capacity. Considering the enormous capex
investment required to establish a new operation, it may come as a surprise that
a number of new mines in Belarus and Russia (e.g. Uralkali’s Solikamsk-3 and
Belaruskali’s Petrikov), in addition to several facility expansions in Canada (e.g.
BHP Group in negotiations with Nutrien to develop Jansen), have recently, or are
about to be, completed this year, are in anticipation to perceived growing
demand. All of which flies in the face of assertions by many that suggest that the
market will remain over-supplied into the future. This “Bow-wave” of supply is
observed in many markets, including lithium, iron-ore, coal, etc., perennially
threatening to inundate any sense of proprietary demand, thereby crushing
pricing. But as the analogy implies, the boat that follows behind never quite
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

catches the “bow-wave”. It is our observation that commodity supply forecasts

typically rely on management project scheduling that include numerous projects
that are ambitious (to say the least); collectively, overstate future product stream,
for several reasons:

• Firstly, collating the number of new potash projects and potential

expansions without any reference to the likelihood of individual projects
in our opinion does not represent likely on-coming supply. The timing
and the ability of juniors to fund such ambitious projects is often highly
questionable.
• Secondly, nameplate capacity for new potash projects typically over-
states actual operational capacity, which is often constrained by
transportation or shipping nodes. Much like the iron ore sector over the
past decade, with actual production continually falling short of forecasts
due to financing, construction, and ramping up delays.

Figure 17: Global potash curve 2021E, on a delivered basis (US$/t).

Source: EuroChem (2020), Janus Analysis

Forecasting the long-term potash price, we have generated a bottom-up

methodology. We recognise that there are a host of methods to determine long-
term price, some of which simply assume a spot price with an average growth
rate based on projected demand. We have assumed that prices will naturally
stabilise at a certain level based on the marginal cost of production. According to
our estimates, delivered C3 production cost (inc. royalties) and freight costs
(which we estimate ~ $25-50/t dependent on destination) on average is ~$163/t
(based on the 90th percentile) which is a common method of calculating long-term
prices for industrial metals). After adding a 50% margin to derive an “All-In
Sustaining Cost” (including capex, opex, corporate G&A etc), it suggests that
sufficient incentive needed to meet long-term demand will need a long-term price
>$245/t.

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Phosphate

What is Phosphate?

Phosphorus is essential for plant nutrition and plays a vital role in photosynthesis,
energy transfer, root and seed formation, plant growth and improvement of the
quality of fruits and vegetables. It is also an important element for animal
nutrition, necessary for the growth/repair of body tissues and growth of bones
and teeth. Occurring primarily as a sedimentary marine phosphorite it is a non-
detrital sedimentary rock, the grade of which can vary significantly (4% to 20%)
typically containing phosphorus pentoxide (P2O5). More than three-quarters of
known global Reserves are located in North Africa, primarily in Morocco and
Western Sahara (see Figure 18). Alternate occurrences have been identified on
the continental shelves, specifically on seamounts in the Atlantic Ocean and the
Pacific Ocean. Phosphate deposits are hypothesised to be originally sourced
from the skeletal remains of dead sea creatures which accumulated on the
seafloor.

Figures 18 & 19: Global Phosphate Reserves (left); and global phosphate production in 2019 (right).

Other
19%

Syria
3%
Algeria
3%
China
5%
Morocco/
W. Sahara
70%

Source: USGS (2021), Janus Analysis

An estimated >200Mt of phosphate rock is extracted per annum, with only ~30Mt
traded internationally; the balance is processed (at source) into either phosphoric
acid (the key phosphate intermediate) or finished fertilisers (see Figure 23). The
key products sold include ammoniated phosphates: ether diammonium
phosphate (DAP) or monoammonium phosphate (MAP), accounting for ~38% of
all finished product sold and ~60% of the total phosphate used by farmers.
Europe is almost entirely dependent on imports of phosphate rock, with France,
Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK accounting for over three-quarters of
phosphoric imports. Historically, supplies have been via Tunisia, Jordan and
Syria2, however, as political instability has increased within that region, long-term

2
Imports have virtually stopped due to ongoing conflict.
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

supplies are no longer guaranteed. The most obvious implication being, an

increased reliance on Moroccan phosphate imports3 into the future.

Phosphate Market Structure

Unlike the potash, with strong market participants adjusting output according to
perceived demand, the phosphate market has a plethora of smaller producers,
with the quantum of production strongly influenced by localised consumption and
supply factors. In recent years, prices were adversely afflicted by increased
productive investment out of China (moving from being a net importer to a net
exporter), Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Russia, which collectively account for 75%
of global DAP and MAP exports. By contrast, Brazil, India and the United States
are the three largest net consuming markets, accounting for over 40% of
phosphate demand (see Figures 20 & 21). At present, both Brazil and India are
the two key markets for phosphate imports, setting prevailing prices, with
contracts typically traded on a spot pricing basis, with phosphate rock and
phosphoric acid sold on a longer-term contractual basis.

Figures 20 & 21: Global phosphate suppliers (left); and phosphate shipments to end-user consumers (right).

Other
20% China
25%

Brazil
12%
India
15%
N.
America
14% O. Asia/
Oceania
14%

Source: CRU (2020), IFA, Mosaic (2020), USGS (2020), Janus Analysis

3
Ongoing political stalemate over the status of Western Sahara as a potential supplier,
makes it unlikely. In 2017, a European court ruled that Western Sahara should not be
considered part of Morocco in European Union and Moroccan deals.
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Phosphate Production Techniques

Rock phosphate, the primary raw material for fertiliser and phosphoric acid,
occurs as high-grade ore (+30% P2O5), a medium-grade ore (20%–30% P2O5),
and low-grade ore (15%–20% P2O5). Phosphate rock, when used in an
untreated form, is not particularly soluble, providing little available nutrient input
to plants, except in moist acidic soils. Treating phosphate rock with sulphuric acid
produces phosphoric acid, the water-soluble material from which most phosphate
fertilisers are derived.

The higher-grade ore blended with medium-grade ore can be used for direct sale.
The lower-grade ores are beneficiated by reverse/inverse flotation techniques.
Typically, phosphate has eight separate procedures, including grinding, a wet
phosphoric acid process, acid concentration and acid clarification, being the
major steps. Dried phosphate ore is typically processed into ammoniated
phosphates by reacting the phosphate rock with sulphuric acid to produce
phosphoric acid. The phosphoric acid is then reacted with ammonia to produce
the ammoniated phosphate MAP (monoammonium phosphate) or DAP
(diammonium phosphate).

Figure 22: Phosphate beneficiation flow chart, with the ultimate creation of superphosphate, triple
superphosphate, ammonium phosphate (and sulphuric acid).

Source: Sattouf (2007)4, Janus Analysis

The greatest shortcoming associated with using phosphates, according to

Columbia University, is that only 20% percent of the phosphorus contained in the
mined phosphate rock reaches the food consumed globally. Approximately 30 to
40% of the in-situ content is lost during mining/processing; whilst 50% is lost in
the general food chain. Much of this wasted phosphorus enters rivers, and lakes
from agricultural runoff, or from phosphates in detergents and soda, and without
careful environmental management, could result in eutrophication5 of nearby
waterways.

4
Sattouf, M. et al. (2007) “Identifying the origin of rock phosphates and phosphorus
fertilizers through high-precision measurement of the strontium isotopes 87Sr and 86Sr”.
Landbauforschung Völkenrode, v.57, p. 1-11.
5
Eutrophication is the over-enrichment of aquatic ecosystems with nutrients (such as
Phosphorous) leading to algal blooms and resultant anoxic events. A serious form of
water pollution globally, occurs once the algae bloom consumes the nutrients, the algae
die, the decay process by bacteria consumes the majority of available oxygen so that a
large bloom can leave "dead zones” - where aquatic creatures are unable to survive.
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Phosphate Supply Dynamics

Global phosphate rock extraction in 2020 was ~238Mt, growing >2.2% pa, with
global demand expected to reach ~300Mtpa by 2030. Given its restricted
distribution globally (see Figure 18), it is interesting to hypothesise about the
possibility of “Peak Phosphorus”, one could argue that growing demand could,
within a relatively short period of time, exhaust existing smaller deposits, for
which there is no realistic substitute. Our only long-term replacement are those
occurring in northern Africa. Isaac Asimov referred to phosphorus as “life’s
bottleneck” because, although it makes up one percent of an organism, it is only
present in 0.1% of earth’s crust (primarily within granites), and is a critical
constituent in RNA and DNA. For example, China, with 5% of global reserves, is
currently responsible for 40% of global phosphate production; estimated by the
USGS to be ~80-95Mtpa (as opposed to the official production statistics of 90-
95Mtpa).

Back in 2008/09 when prices spiked (see Figure 24), in a state of panic, China
implemented a raft of export tariffs that were so high that all fertiliser exports
ceased. Even now, the vast majority of additional capacity increases are from
projects located in Algeria, Egypt, Guinea Bissau, Morocco, Senegal, and Togo;
countries with the propensity for varying degrees of political strife. Somewhat
surprisingly, given the concentration of global resources and its critical nature, in
comparison with the oligopolistic nature of potash, phosphate by contrast has a
plethora of smaller nationally based producers, thereby displaying market
behaviour more akin to perfect competition6.

Figure 23: Global seaborne phosphate shipments (from 2000 to 2020F).

75

70

65

60
CAGR 2.8% pa
55
Mt Phosphate

50

45

40

35

30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020F
Source: IFA, CRU, Mosaic (2020), Janus Analysis

We believe, however, that this market dynamic will evolve over the coming
decade, given the distribution of world resources, and the number of smaller,
higher-grade phosphate deposits that are steadily becoming depleted. Forcing

6
In that all participating firms sell essentially a homogeneous product; they are price
takers (they cannot influence the market price of their product); and that market share by
any particular firm has no influence on prices.
18
 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

the market to adopt a more oligopolistic (or monopolistic?) structure, entrenching

existing larger corporate producer positions, or those whose secured tenure to
large (often lower-grade) established resources, especially those in northern
Africa. As an emerging trend, it will be further exacerbated by the phosphate
industry becoming more sophisticated and vertically integrated, with mining
companies seeking larger margins, producing increasingly more fertilisers,
phosphoric acid and other derivatives of phosphate rock.

Phosphate Pricing and Forecast

The largest event affecting the phosphate sector more recently was Mosaic filing
a petition with the US Department of Commerce, requesting a countervailing duty
investigation; in particular, focussing on fertiliser imports from Morocco and
Russia, claiming that imports from both countries were being subsidised by their
respective governments7. Ignoring the merits associated with the claims, at the
time of the announcement, US DAP was $273/t, but once the implications were
realised a month later, prices climbed to $305/t. Currently, they are ~$575/t as
global shortages become more evident, and the US relies primarily on domestic
sources (which was the whole point to Mosaics petition in the first place). This
recent price increase can largely be attributable to the rise in fundamental
demand; with Africa, India, and South America accounting for 75-80% of the
growth in phosphoric acid, fertilisers and other related products over the past six
years.

Figure 24: Rock Phosphate Monthly Price (US$/t).

Source: IndexMundi (2021), Janus Analysis

Whilst there has been a plateau in meat consumption in places such as the U.S.,
Europe, and Australia, there has been a corresponding dramatic increase in
protein intake throughout Southeast Asia and China that requires significantly

7
Subsequent Moroccan and Russian phosphate exports have been diverted to Latin
America and India as a result of an imposition of US duties.
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

more phosphate production; for example, overall meat consumption in China has
increased >600% over the past three decades alone.

Despite a number of new and proposed, projects expected to become

operational in the coming years (namely from Egypt, Morocco, China and Saudi
Arabia) it is arguable whether this additional phosphate supply is sufficient to
keep up with underlying growth in demand. On crop nutrient affordability metric,
the ratio of a wholesale fertiliser price and crop prices indicate that fertiliser prices
are, on an historical basis, increasingly affordable - and is a large part of the
reason why phosphate prices have increased >40% over the past 12 months.
Although, it has to be noted that this uptick has also been bolstered by higher
input costs, particularly from sulphur and ammonia, as a result of refinery
curtailments limiting supplies due to COVID-19 restrictions.

Figure 25: Global Phosphate rock mine site costs (US$/t).

Source: CRU (2017), Janus Analysis

Not unlike the methodology utilised to determine a long-term price for potash, we
have also assumed that phosphate will naturally stabilise at a certain level based
on the marginal cost of production. According to our estimates, potash cost
curves show that the average cost of production is around $125-150/t KCl (see
Figure 24). This is a C2 production cost (inc. royalties), so it excludes freight
costs, which we estimate are in the order of $15-25/t on average8. Adding an
additional 50% to derive an “All-in Sustaining Cost” (inc. sustaining capex,
corporate G&A etc), suggests a likely sustainable production cost of $140/t.

8
The lower transport cost attributable is because we are only evaluating rock phosphate
and not taking into account value add processing, which is increasingly done on or near to
site as phosphate companies steadily become more vertically integrated.
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Potash/Phosphate Recommendations

We are confident that the potash and phosphate markets are under-priced on a
long-term basis (see Figures 16 and 24). We have elected several large, higher-
cost producers as Buy recommendations; on the basis that increased revenues
per unit sold will provide the investor greater leverage to upside profitability and
capital appreciation.

• BUY Nutrien (TSX: NTR): Canadian fertiliser company, based in

Saskatchewan, is the largest producer of potash and the third largest
producer of nitrogen fertiliser globally; distributing >27Mtpa of product
annually to agricultural, industrial and feed customers. With six large
potash mines, NTR intends to increase 2H21 production by 500kt
(currently 13-14Mtpa) in response to tightening global market conditions.
According to Q121 results, adjusted EBITDA for the potash division was
up an impressive 33% over the pcp, making up ~45-50% of EBITDA
(compared with ~10% for phosphate). Its total retail margin at 10.1% (up
from 9.3% in 2019), implies that its future profitability is highly leveraged
to the underlying commodity price.
• BUY Mosaic (NYSE: MOS): US based company operating in nine
different countries, producing ~25Mtpa of finished potash and phosphate
concentrate. Looking at Q121, MOS’s potash division contributed ~21%
(up.7.9% over the pcp) and phosphate ~34%, up 43% over the pcp
(before corporate and other costs allocated) despite similar tonnages
sold. By the end of Q122, MOS’s potash production guidance forecasts
an increase of 2Mtpa (up from ~9.5Mtpa currently) as Esterhazy K3
reaches nameplate capacity, and Colonsay commences operations.

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Appendix A – Fertiliser Demand Drivers

Increasing Global Population

One of the critical reasons why fertiliser consumption growth rates have
historically been so consistent over time is that the world’s inhabitants are
steadily growing, currently estimated at around 7.8Bn people, with an additional
81m (births minus deaths) added annually. According to the IHME9, the global
population is forecast to plateau at 9.7bn around 2064, before beginning to
decline gradually. At which point, we would still expect primary fertiliser demand
to increase, as diets transition to more affluent tastes, for a variety of reasons
(e.g. increasing wealth, longevity, protein consumption, etc.); on current trends it
will double over the next 30 years.

Figure 26: World Map if Size Reflected Population in 2100 based on 2017 UN population prospects
using the “medium variant” projections. The most populous nations being India, Nigeria and China, in
that order.

Source: Worldmapper (2018), UN (2017), CIA (2017), Janus Analysis

Notwithstanding the overly Malthusian outlook, the African continent’s share of

the global population is projected to rise to ~49% of the global total by the end of
the century, up from 16% in 2018; with Nigeria becoming the second most
populous nation after India, overtaking that of China. The relative rise of the sub-
continent and Sub-Saharan Africa will off-set projected decreases in populations
elsewhere10. These projections are, however, always subject to change, as seen
with China and the introduction of its new three child policy, in May this year, only
five years since dropping the one-child policy in October 2015; although, it has to
be said, that even if successful, its effects will take decades to implement.

9
http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/lancet-world-population-likely-shrink-after-
mid-century-forecasting-major-shifts-global
10
The replacement fertility rate is roughly 2.1 live births per woman for most
industrialised countries (the current average globally is ~2.66). Remarkably, with the
exception of Israel, no developed nation has a replacement birth-rate. More surprisingly,
more than half of the developing world has birth rates around (e.g. India at 2.2) or below
(e.g. China at 1.7) replacement levels.
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Decreasing Arable Land

In the face of an increasing global population, current crop yields will have to be
maintained, even in the face of major economic, climatic or political shocks; with
approximately half of the world’s useable land already under pastoral or intensive
agriculture. As a result of urbanisation, industrial and infrastructure development,
arable land availability in many developing nations is actually declining (see
Figure 27). Crop growth is being achieved, however, despite increasing
population and protein in-take. For an example, despite its population increasing
by >500m over the past 30 years, India (which once faced chronic food
shortages) is not only self-sufficient but now retains substantial grain reserves.
Indonesia, formerly the world’s leading rice importer, is increasingly a major
exporter.

Figures 27 & 28: Hectares of arable land per person (left); and Fertiliser consumption (kg per hectare of arable land) (right).
145
0.35
0.32
140
0.30
0.27 135

0.25 0.24
Hectares per person

0.23 130
kg per Hectare

0.20
0.20 0.18 125
0.17
120
0.15

115
0.10
110

0.05
105

0.00 100
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020E 2030F 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: FAO (2020), World Banks (2020), Janus Analysis

The continued global growth requirement for fertilisers is, in large-part, due to
increased demand by a larger and wealthier world population desiring a higher-
quality of nutrition. The investment narrative implies that declining arable-land,
coupled with increasing population densities require additional fertiliser
applications to achieve the required yields; equally, demand is highly related to
increasing economic advancement and the transition from grains to proteins,
vegetables and fruit. In the future, the growth in demand will continue to increase
for Developing Nations.

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Rise of the Urban Middle Class and Dietary Changes

This sudden increase in agricultural demand, however, cannot just be attributed

to increasing population pressures. One important reason why food demand
continues to grow is in large part, due to general improvement in living standards.
It has been noted that as a country develops, there is a strong correlation
between rising incomes and increased protein consumption per capita. People
switch from staple foods such as rice or wheat to higher quantities of animal
protein, fruit and vegetables.

Higher demand for meat requires additional feed grains. To produce one kilo of
chicken, pork or beef, requires two, four and seven kilos of grain, respectively.
Rather than replacing staple grains, it has been found that middle-classes
typically augment them with more protein. It is clear, therefore, that the challenge
of feeding the world depends in large part, not only the consumption of animal
protein, but what type?

While pork and poultry remain China's proteins of choice, beef consumption is
growing rapidly as Korean barbecue joints, hot-pot restaurants, and burger
chains establish across the country. To meet this rising protein demand, China
has set up large industrial pork and chicken farms. Resultant soybean meal
import demand over the past several decades has increased ~800%, with
soybean imports in 2020 estimated to be between 84 and 89Mt (primarily from
North America and Brazil). With the advent of Swine flu and 40% realised
inventory losses (collectively) throughout China, its diversification into other
proteins has seen a dramatic rise in poultry output.

Figures 29 & 30: Urbanisation of China, based on National Population Census in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010 (left); and Indian
urbanisation (right).

Source: Stats Gov. China (2011), Worldmeter (2020), World Bank (2020), Janus Analysis

Forecasts suggest that the middle classes from China and India will, by 2030,
account for approximately 45% of the global total. There are, however,
fundamental differences between the two markets. Half of India’s population is
vegetarian for religious reasons, many of whom are the most economically
advanced Indians, and for the most part, remain so (although this is slowly
changing). Whereas in China, there has been a dramatic change in dietary
habits; for example, it has been observed that over the period whereby average
24
 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

household incomes have increased by 50%, protein consumption increased by

130%.

Future Biofuel Demand

According to the IEA (2020), biofuels account for ~10% of primary energy supply
globally (even when traditional biomass is excluded, e.g. wood fires etc.). To put
that in perspective, it is five times higher than wind and solar PV combined;
driven in large part by state support in bioenergy for electricity and transportation
biofuels. Although not yet a major demand factor, we believe potash could be
increasingly important in the production of biofuels. Global biofuel production has
risen substantially in recent years, driven primarily by US (corn-based) and
Brazilian (sugarcane-based) ethanol production (estimated to be ~154Bn litres in
2018) - both of which utilise potash. A potential sea-change to envelope the
biofuel industry is based on cellulosic ethanol, utilising the whole plant, rather
than, at present, relying on food crops. This could allow a step-change in
realised ethanol per unit of biomass, thereby transforming the economics of the
entire sector.

Figures 31 & 32: EISA Volumes (2010-2022) billion gallons (US), ethanol equivalent (Left); and
Renewable Fuel Standard volume requirements (2010-2019) billion gallons (US), ethanol equivalent.

Source: EIA (2018), Janus Analysis

Cellulosic ethanol is a process that produces biofuel from wood, organic waste,
grasses, agricultural residues, non-edible parts of plants, municipal biowaste,
used vegetable oils, and even biological sludge from urban water purification
plants, via cellular hydrolysis using enzymes. There are several commercial
scale plants operational in Norway, the US, and Brazil. Conversion is achieved
either via specialised enzymes/microbes that break down pre-treated biomass-
based cellulose into sugars, which are then fermented into alcohols, or
alternatively, by thermochemical methods, including gasification (using a third of
the oxygen needed for complete combustion to produce monoxide and hydrogen
– more commonly known as syngas) or pyrolysis (heating the biomass in the
absence of oxygen to produce bio-oils). Both are possible avenues for large-
scale biofuel production methods.

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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

Despite limited production due to technical difficulties (pre-treatments,

fermentation, hydrolysis, and by-products) and high energy costs, plant species
such as Miscanthus11 (also known as “elephant grass”) is of particular interest, as
it can be harvested annually with a standard sugar cane harvester, has high
productivity per acre and can be grown in cool climates such as northern Europe.
Critically, they do not compete with agricultural production for the food market,
replacing current first-generation biofuel production utilising food crops.

An important consideration with biofuels is the fact that they can be mixed with
traditional hydrocarbons, allowing an immediate reduction in greenhouse
production without burdensome upfront infrastructure requirements. At present,
ethanol production is centred around the fermentation of sugars into alcohol,
utilising a variety of plant sources/feedstocks. Corn is the most common
feedstock in the US, sugar cane in Brazil, with sorghum and other feedstock
grains in parts of Europe. In terms of production, around 78Mt of ethanol was
produced globally in 2018, most of which was from the US (56%), followed by
Brazil (28%), EU (5%), and China (4%)12.

11
Default value associated to cellulosic ethanol is 16 gCO2eq/MJ resulting in 83% GHG
emission reduction compared with fossil fuels.
https://www.clariant.com/en/Corporate/News/2018/09/Groundbreaking-for-Clariantrs
quos-sunliquidreg-cellulosic-ethanol-plant-in-Romanianbsp
12
Renewable Fuels Association.
http://www.ethanolrfa.org/resources/industry/statistics/#1454098996479-8715d404-e546
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 Potash & Phosphate – Why Invest?

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