Variable Aleatoire
Variable Aleatoire
Variable Aleatoire
ːˈ˲ˣ˕̤Դ۫ ̶ǪȅȔ˅̙ȅ˅̀˧ ҡȓǪˇ ̤˅̎߆ ̢̬̤ȇ|˅̶˷˅̜̀ȇǫȓ˅˧ ̇دҠ ̢̪̬؈˼ ʿ˅˾ ˬǭ˰̊ Ȃ˅̵̰Ǚː̾ʿǪ̸˻ ̉ːˈ˲֗ߘ ߆
ࠃ ǪȔ˅̸̪̻̬̀̽˰̙Ǫ̸̤Ǫ̬ˁԴ˴̤Ǫdz˰̊ ː˷Ǫǵdz˅̢̰̲؈̴̭˅Ȕ̙ȉǵ˅̞֗ ̰ˈ̣ Ȁ ȇ˲̇ ̤˅̲˖˷Ǫǵdz߆ ǙҠ ˜߂|ː̰̾̋ ̪ː̾˽ ˅˭ࠄ ̊ ˴̟˷ٸ
ࠃ ǪȔǵȇ˲Ǫː̻˅̎ࠃ ǪȔȅ̸ˈ˴̤Ǫǵ˅̇ ˕̭ȔǪˑ ̜ȇǙȄ̸̤̾Ǫ߆ ː̊ dz̸Ǫ̌ ̤˅ˋǪǙ˲̶˺ǭ˰̪ȃҠ ˭˅̸̪̻̀ːˈ̸˩˸ Ǫ̌ ̤˅ˋǪǙ̞ ̰ˋ̤Ǫ
ː̭̾Զ̬̪˰˕؈˰̜ˑ ̸̜̤ǪǪ˱̵ȅȔ˅̙ǵ˅̇ ˕̭ҟȔǪˑ ̜ȇȃ̸˧Է˔˲̟ڂȅߐǪǴȔ˅̙Ǚ˅̶˷˅̜̀ȇ˅˧ ̇دҠ ̢̪̬؈˼ ʿ˅˾ ˬ˅̶ߚǙȂ˅ˋ̑˻ ̤Ǫ
Ȁ ˰̵̸֣˰̻˰˸ ˖̤Ǫːˈ˲̺̙֗̚Ǚ۸ ̋ ̪dz˰̋ ˈ˅̶̄ ˈǵ̢̬؈ː̾ʿǪ̸˻ ̉ːˈ˲֗Ի˅˕̭̬̪ːˤ̀˖̭ߘ |Ҡ ˞̪ː̊ ˅˷̘ ˾ ̭ࠃ ǪȔǭ˰˨Ǫȇ
߆ ǵ˅̇ ˕̭ҟȔǪˑ ̸̜̙|Ȁ ˰̶̤Ǫːˈ˅˽ ǪȔȄ˰̊ ߦ˅˨߆ 0߁ǵȇȀ ˰̶̤Ǫːˈ˅˽ ǪȔːˤ̀˖̰̤Ǫˑ ̭ߐǪǴȔǪ1ːؒ ̝̤ǪǤ˅̄ ̉ȔǪ˅̢̰̲؈̴̭˅Ȕ̙۸ ̋ ̪
ȅ ǫȓ˘ ̀˧ː̾ʿǪ̸˻ ̉ːˈ˲ˣ˕ˈː̄ ˋ˒˲̪˅؟ҡȓː̾ʿǪ̸˻ ̉Ǯ Ǫ̤˜˅ م ̮ ˸̫ز˅̪˗̏ٸǪȃ ˅˜Ǫ߆ Ȁ ˰̶̤Ǫːˈ˅˽ ǪȔǮ Ǫ˲̪dz˰̊ ȇȃȇҡȓǪȃ˅˜Ǫ
̳˱̶̤ː̻dz˰̋ ̤ǪߦǪ߱Ǫࠃ ǪȔː̀ˌ̻˲ˣ˕̤ǪԻ˅˕̰̤Ǫ̬̪ȃ˅̝˕̭ҟȔԴ˅̰̤˦̫˸ ̼فǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪȄ̸̶̚߂|˅̝ˋ̑˸ ̪˅ؙȄ˴߫Ǫ̢̬؈ҟԻ˅˕̰̤Ǫ
. اﻟﻨﺘﺎﰀ
: ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﰄ
߱ ﻣﻦ ﻓﻀﺎء اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺑﻌﺪدːˤ̀˖̭ߘ ̂ ˈ˲˔ Ωࠅ ۡ ˧ȔҟǪǤ˅́ ̤̚Ǫː̰̾̋ ̤ǪǤ˅́ ̙߆ ː̙˲̋ ̪ߦǪdz̸̵X اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﰄ
ܺ Ω՜ ܺሺ߱ሻൌ ˧̀ ˘{ݔx̺̝̝̀˧
̤̝ ۮǪ|Ȁ ˰̶̤Ǫːˈ˅˽ ǪȔǮ Ǫ˲̪dz˰̊ { XفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪȀ ˲̋ ̭|ǭ˰˨Ǫȇǭ˲̪۸ ̋ ̪Ȁ ˰̵̸֣˰̻˰˸ ˖̤Ǫːˈ˲֗߆ : 2ȃ˅˞̪
. ﻫﻮ إﺻﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﻬﺪفA ﻟﯿﻜﻦ اﳊﺪث. 0ȇǫȓ1࠘ فǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪǪ˱̵˅̵˱˭ȓ̻ܱ̂ ̤Ǫ
ܺ(߱) ൌ ൜0 ߱ൌܣ
1 ߱ ൌ ܣഥ
Ǯ Ǫ˕̏ٸǪ̳˱̵˅̵˱˭ȓ̂˒ܱ ̤Ǫː̻dz˰̋ ̤Ǫ̤̝ ۮǪȇ X , Y , Zǭ̢̤ˍٸǪȀ ȇ˲߬Դ˅̶̤˴̪˲̯ː̾ʿǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤ǪǮ Ǫ˕̏ٸǪȅ ǫȓࠃ ǪȔǭǵ˅˺ ҟȔǪǵ˰֗
ݔ ﱔ اﻟﻘﳰﺔ اﳌﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔȅ ǫȓܳ ̋ ̻Ǫ˱̵ ܺ(߱) = ̢̯˗ ˇݔ۸ Ǚࠅ Ǫ̸˕̤Ǫࠄ ̊ x , y , z ǭ̤ ˾̏ٸǪȀ ȇ˲߬Դ˅̶̤˴̪˲̯
. XفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪȃҠ ˭̬̪ ߱ ːˤ̀˖̰̤Դ
|̣ ˾ ˗̪ȇǫṛ̑ ˾ ̲̪̚ࠃ ǪȔفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪ̘ ̰̾˾ ˒˅̢̰̲؈̴̭˅Ȕ̙ ǙفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪ˅̵˱˭ȓ̻ܱ̂ ̤Ǫː̻dz˰̋ ̤Ǫ˒ˋ ̋˅̥ ̧̝ ۮȇ
: اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﰄ اﳌﻨﻔﺼﻞ
|˰̋ ̧ ̥̣ ˈ˅̜˅̢̤رȇdzȇ˰ࠌ̜ ̴ؒ̎ٸdz˰̊ ȅ̸̢̽˰̜ȇǫȓǪdzȇ˰ࠌ̴ؒ ̜dz˰̊ ȅߐǪǴȔǪ̣ ˾ ̴̲̪̭̚ǫȓفǪ̸˻ ̬̪̉̉˗̏ٸȃ̸̝̭
ܺ∶Ω →R
ܺ(߱) = ݔ ,
ݔ = ݔଵ , ݔଶ , ݔଷ , … . . , ݔ ̤̝ ۮǪ̴̬̪˕̲̪dz˰̊
ݔ = ݔଵ , ݔଶ , ݔଷ , … ˰̋ ̧ ̥ߧˈ˅̝̤Ǫ̤̝ ۮǪ̴̬̪˕̲̪̎ٸdz˰̊
ː̀̚˒˅̶̤Ǫǻ ̸̄ ߭Ǫdz˰̊ { XفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪȀ ˲̋ ̭Ǚː̰̾̋ ̪ː̝̄ ̲̪̬ާ ̺̚˒˅̵̂ ˬ 1000Ǯ ҟ˅˾ ˒ȔǪː̟ ݾȈ ߱ {ȃ˅˞̪
ȉȇ˅˸ ̴̼˕̲̪dz˰̊ ̸̵ X˅̵˱˭ȓ̻ܱ̂ ̤Ǫ̤̝ ۮǪ ﻓﻌﺪد. 1000 ...... ، 1 ، 0̤̝ ۮǪ˱˭ȓ̻̂ȅ ǫȓ̢̬؈ X|Ȅ̸̤̾Ǫ߆ ߦ̸̏˻ Ǫ
فǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪԷ̉˕ ٴǪǪǴȔǪ˅̪ǫȓ|Ǫ˱̵̢ȇ 4 ﰒ اﻟﻘﳰﺔ3 ﺗﻠﳱﺎ اﻟﻘﳰﺔ2ːؒ ̝̤˅̙ߧ˾ ̲̪̤̝̚ ۮ ̜࠘ ۮǪ̳˱̵ȇǙː̻dz˰̊ ːؒ ̜ 1001
˅̢̤رȇǭdzȇ˰ࠌ ﻫﺬﻩ اﻟﻘﲓ̎ٸ. ∞ ........... ، 2 ، 1 ، 0̤̝ ۮǪ˱˭ȓ̻̂ȅ ǫȓ̢̬؈˕̏ٸǪǪ˱̵ȅȔ˅̙Ȅ̸̤̾Ǫ߆ Ǯ ˅ߑ Ǫdz˰̊ { Y
|˰̋ ̧ ̥ߧˈ˅̜
|ȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪdẓ ˜ ܲ(ܺ = ݔ)˘ ̀˧Ǚ XفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˧ ۡ ࠅ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸȔҟǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤Ǫ̣ ˜؈ȃȇ˰߫ǪǪ˱̵
{ȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߧ˕̟ߦǪdz̘ ̻˲̋ ˒
{ࠆ ̻ࠇ̟ː̙˲̋ ̪ߦǪdz࠘ ݂()ݔȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪdzȇǫȓȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߧ˕̟ߦǪdzǙ Xﻟﯿﻜﻦ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﰄ اﳌﻨﻔﺼﻞ
{ǿˈ˔؏ڂȇ ݂ : ܺ(Ω) ⟶ [0 , 1]
1. ݂(ݔ) = ܲ(ܺ = ݔ)
Ǚːˍˠ̸̪Ǯ ҟۡ ˧ȔҟǪ̜ ۮȅ ǫȓ˘ ̀˧ː̝̝ࠌȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪdzǻ ȇ ݾȅȔ˅̙Ǚː̻˰̝̭̈ ̄ ̜ǯ Ҡ ˙ࠒ ˲ˊ̛ ̧ ̋ ˕Ǫ̛ ˈ˅˸ ̤Ǫȃ˅˜Ǫ߆
. (1/8+2/8+2/8+1/8) = 1Ǯ ҟۡ ˧ȔҟǪǽ̸ࠈȇ
. ݔ اﻟﻘﳰﺔXفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪ˱˭ȓ̻̂ȅ ǫȓȃۡ ˧ ǪȔ{ܳ ̋ ˒ ܲ(ܺ = ݔ)ːˈ˅˗̢̤Ǫȅ ǫȓࠃ ǪȔǭǵ˅˺ ҟȔǪǵ˰֗
˕̏ٸǪȀ ˲̋ ̭|۸ ˕̻˲̠ǭdz˅̊ ǪȔȅȇ˰ˈȇ˅̾ʿǪ̸˻ ̉ˇ ˩˸ ̮ |ǤǪdz̸˷Ǯ Թ˲̠3 وǤ˅́ ̾ˈǮ Թ˲̠4ࠄ ̊ ȁȇ˰̰˽ ȉ̸˕֤ : 2ȃ˅˞̪
. Xǿǿ̤ȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪdz˰ˡȇǫȓ|ːˈ̸˩˸ ǪǤ˅́ ̾ˋ̤ǪǮ Թ˲̢̤Ǫdz˰̊ { X اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﰄ
. 2 ، 1 ، 0 وﱔX˕̏ٸǪ˅̵˱˭ȓ̻̂ȅ ǫȓ̢̬؈ܱ ̤Ǫ̤̝ ۮǪҟȇǫȓdz˰֣
: ̵̪̬˱ﻩ اﻟﻘﲓ ﻛﲈ ﯾﲇːؒ ̜ߘ ȃۡ ˧ ǪȔˇ ˸ ֣
ܥଶଷ 1
ܲ(ܺ = 0) = = 7
ܥଶ
ܥଵସܥଵଷ 4
ܲ(ܺ = 1) = = 7
ܥଶ
ܥଶସ 2
ܲ(ܺ = 2) = = 7
ܥଶ
. 1 و0۸ ˈǭǵ̸˾ ࠌȇːˍˠ̸̪ ߚ̶˅̜ ۮ2/7 ، 4/7 ، 1/7 اﻟﻘﲓ: ȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪdzǻ ȇݾ
ଵ ସ ଶ
∑ ݂( = )ݔ+ + = 1
ࠆ ̻ۤ ̙ȇ|˅̭̾˅̾ˈߕ ˺ȇǫȓː̾̀ Թǵː̏̾˽ ߙ ˺߆ ˅̤˕ ̋ˋٸ̉رǪ̢̬؈ǴȔǪࠅ ȇ˰߫Ǫ̣ ̾˜؏̦Ǫࠄ ̊ ̻̝˗ ޠҟȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪdẓ ̾˜
|̣ ˾ ̰̚ǪفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪdz̬̉˒ ̋ ٴȅ ǫȓ˅̢ر؈ܱ ̤Ǫː̭̾˅̾ˋ̤Ǫȃߑ ˺ ҡȓǪ̘ ̧ ˕ࠍ
{ࠅ ˅˕̤Ǫߙ ˻ ̤Դȅ̸̢̽ȅ ǫȓ̢̬؈ȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪ̤߱ˋ̾˅ مǪ̣ ̾˜؏̦ǪǙ 2 ﰲ اﳌﺜﺎل
{ࠆ ̻ࠇ̟ࠅ ۡ ˧ ǪȔǰǵ˰̪ߙ ˺ࠄ ̊ ˅́ ̻ǫȓࠁ̾˜̢̬؈ȇ
XفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˧ ۡ ࠅ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸȔҟǪǰǵ˰Ǫ
x۸ ̋ ̪˰˨Ƕȇ˅ˤ˕̻ҟ Xȅ̸̠ȃۡ ˧ ǪȔǬ ˅˸ ˧ࠃ ǪȔǰ˅˕֣˅̰̭˅Ȕ̙Ǚ X̪̬̜ ۮːؒ ̜ߘ ȃۡ ˧ ǪȔǬ ˅˸ ˧ ࠃ ǪȔ˅̰˗ˠ˅˨ࠃ ǪȔː̙˅̀ ǪȔ
|̺ߞǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤Դ̹̫˸ ̼ː˕ˈԶːؒ ̜ȉȇ˅˸ ̼ȇǫṛ̑ ̜ǫȓفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪȅ̸̢̽ȅ ǫȓȃۡ ˧ ǪȔ|
: CDF̺ߞǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪdz
ːؒ ̜ȉȇ˅˸ ˓ȇȓǫ̣ ̜ǫȓۤ ̜فǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪ˱˭ȓ̻̂ȅ ǫȓȃۡ ˧ ǪȔ˅؟ȓ̂ˈܺفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫߞ̺)ݔ(ܨ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪdzȀ ˲̋ ˒
{ˇ ˗̢̯ȇ Rː̝̝̀̀߬ǪdzǪ˰̊ ҡȓǪː̊ ̸ࠈ ̬̪ː̰̾̋ ̪
ܨ : ܴ ⟶ [0 , 1]
|ː̝̝̀̀߬ǪdzǪ˰̊ ҡȓǪː̊ ̸ࠈ ࠄ ̊ ː̙˲̋ ̪࠘ ȇ|̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪ˰ˈ̺ߞǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪdz̺̫˸ ̮ Ǫǵ˅˾ ˗ˬǪȇ
{ː̤̾˅˕̤Ǫ˼ ʿ˅˾ ߭Ǫ̛ ̝֡ߦǪ߱Ǫوﻫﺬﻩ
1. 0 ≤ ≤ )ݔ(ܨ1
اﳋﺎﺻﯿﺔ. 1 و0۸ ˕ؒ ̝̤Ǫ۸ ˈǭǵ̸˾ ࠌǭǵȇ̤ ޢԴ̶̺̖̙̺ߞǪ˲˔ȃۡ ˧ ǪȔ˅̵ǵ˅ˋ˕̉Դ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪdzȅ ǫȓࠃ ǪȔ ࠃ˓ ˻ٸȇҡȓǪː̾˽ ˅߭Ǫ
̬̪̣ ̜ҡȓǪXߞ̺̤̝ ۮǪ̤ ٵǪȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪȅ ǫȓܳ ̋ ˒ː˜̤˅˜̤Ǫː̾˽ ˅߭Ǫ| x߆ ǭ˰̻Ǫߦ̪ٿǪdz࠘ ̺ߞǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪdzȅ ǫȓܳ ̋ ˒ː̱̀ ˙ҟǪ
ﻫﻮ ≤ ݔ−∞ ﻓﺎﳊﺪث. (ܨ−∞) = ܲ(ܺ ≤ −∞) = 0 ، 0ǭǵȇ̤ ޢԴȉ ȇ˅˸ ̼ −∞ ﻗﳰﺔ ﺗﺆول إﱃ
+∞ࠃ ǪȔȃȇʼ ˒ːؒ ̜̬̪̣ ̜ҡȓǪXߞ̺̤̝ ۮǪ̤ ٵǪȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪȅ ǫȓࠃ ǪȔ˓ ˻ٸː̋ ˈǪ˲̤Ǫː̾˽ ˅߭ǪȅȔ˅̙Ụ̈̌ ˈ˅̝Դ |̣ ̾˩˕̑˸ ̪ǯ ˰˨
ȓ ˰˨̸̵ ܺ ≤ +∞ اﳊﺪث. (ܨ+∞) = ܲ(ܺ ≤ +∞) = 1 ، 1ǭǵȇ̤ ޢԴȉȇ˅˸ ̼
|˰̠̾ǫǯ
ȃ˅ࠋࠃ ǪȔ̺؏̱˒ xːؒ ̝̤Ǫȅ̸̢˔ȅ ǫȓȃۡ ˧ ǪȔǬ ˅˸ ˧˅̢̰̲؈ȅȔ˅̙Ǚ x߆ ǭ˰̻Ǫߞ̺̪ٿǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪdzȅ̸̠̬̪˅̜Ҡ ̄ ̭Ǫȇ
: ܽ[ ˧̀ ˘ܽ > ܾ ﻛﲈ ﯾﲇ, ܾ]
)ܾ ≤ ܺ(ܲ = )ܾ ≤ ݔ ≤ ܽ(ܨ− ܲ(ܺ ≤ ܽ) = )ܾ(ܨ− )ܽ(ܨ
̬̪ǭdz˰ࠌː̊ ̸ࠈ ߆ ː̙˲̋ ̪ȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪdzۣ ̿ˈǙː̝̝̀̀߬ǪdzǪ˰̊ ҡȓǪː̊ ̸ࠈ ࠄ ̊ ː̙˲̋ ̪ǭ˰̻Ǫߦ̪ٿǪdz࠘ ̺ߞǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪdz
.ﻗﲓ اﳌﺘﻐﲑ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﰄ
: اﳉﻮاب
{ࠅ ˅˕̤Ǫȃȇ˰߫Ǫ߆ ǭ˅̄ ̋ ̪࠘ ȇǙȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪ˰ˈ̛ ̧ ̋ ˕Ǫ̛ ˈ˅˸ ̤Ǫȃ˅˜Ǫ߆ ȃǪʼ ˸ ̤ǪǪ˱̵̣ ˨̛ ˋ̑˷ |1
ݔ 0 1 2 3
ܲ(ܺ = ݔ) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
{ࠅ ˅˕̤ߐȅ̸̢̽ȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߦǪ̤߱ˋ̾˅ مǪ̣ ̾˜؏̦Ǫ
X̣ ˾ ̰̚ǪفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߧ˕̟ߦǪ̤߱ˋ̾˅ مǪ̣ ̾˜؏̦Ǫ
1 3
(ܨ1) = ܲ(ܺ ≤ 1) = ݂(0) + ݂(1) = + = 1/2
8 8
௫ஸଵ
1 3 3
(ܨ2) = ܲ(ܺ ≤ 2) = ݂(0) + ݂(1) + ݂(2) = + + = 7/8
8 8 8
௫ஸଶ
1 3 3 1
(ܨ3) = ܲ(ܺ ≤ 3) = ݂(0) + ݂(1) + ݂(2) + ݂(3) = + + + =1
8 8 8 8
௫ஸଷ
: 2ȃ˅˞̪
: ﻛﲈ ﯾﲇXفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫߞ̺̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪdz˅̢̰̻̬߱˕̤
0 < ݔ−2
⎧
⎪0.2 − 2 ≤ < ݔ0
= )ݔ(ܨ0.7 0 ≤ <ݔ2
⎨1 ≥ݔ2
⎪
⎩
|ȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߧ˕̟ߦǪdz˰ˡȇǫȓ|1
. 2 و0 ، 2-{ː̤̾˅˕̤Ǫ̤̝ ۮǪ˱˭ȓ̻̂X ، ﻣﻦ ﻫﺬﻩ اﳌﻌﻄﯿﺎت
(ܨ−2) = 0.2 − 2 ≤ < ݔ0 ⇒ ݂(−2) = ܲ(ܺ = −2) = 0.2
(ܨ0) = 0.7 0 ≤ <ݔ2 ⟹ (ܨ−2) − (ܨ0) = ݂(0) = ܲ(ܺ = 0) = 0.7 − 0.2 = 0.5
XفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸȃۡ ˧ȔҟǪߧ˕̟ߦǪ̤߱ˋ̾˅ مǪ̣ ̾˜؏̦Ǫ XفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫߞ̺̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸǪ̤ ٵǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤ǪߦǪ̤߱ˋ̾˅ مǪ̣ ̾˜؏̦Ǫ
̤̝ ۮ|˒ ̋ ٴǪ̳˱̵Ǯ ҟۡ ˧ ǪȔȉȇ˅˸ ˓˦̀ˠ˲˔Ǯ Ҡ ̪˅̋ فǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪ˲ ݍ߿˕ ̧ ̘̜ ۮǪ̂ ˷̸̤Ǫ̸̵فǪ̸˻ ̉˒̸̜ ̪̈˗̏ٸ
̂ ˷̸˗̴̸̪̭̠̬̉Ǫ̤˲̪˴ߤ ˒ ̋ˋٸԴࠀ˴̪˲̯ȇفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˧ ۡ ࠅ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸȔҟǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤Ǫ˴̟˲̪̬̉فǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸː̋ ̸̜˕Ǫːؒ ̝̤Ǫ
.(3Ǥ˅˾ ˧ȔҟǪȃ̸˾ ̙߆ ࠀȇ˅̲˖̰̑˷ ȉ ߳Ǫː̰̾̋ ̤Ǫ̂ ˷̸˗̪̣ ˈ˅̝̪߆ X ̤ ̋ ˻̸اﰄǪ˕̏ٸǪǮ ˅˷˅̝̤̀˧ ˾˅فȔҟǪ̈ ؏߽ Ǫ
Ǚdz˲̯ː̋ ̄ ̜ࠒ ǵːˈ˲֗ȃ˅˞̪ : 1ȃ˅˞̪
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7
= )ܺ(ܧ ݔ. ൬ ൰ = 1. + 2. + 3. + 4. + 5. + 6. = = 3.5
6 6 6 6 6 6 6 2
௫ୀଵ
: ﻛﲈ ﻫﻮ ﻣﻮﰣ ﰲ اﳉﺪولXفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˧ ۡ ࠅ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸȔҟǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤Ǫ˅̰̻߱˘ ̀˧Ǚː̻˰̝̭̈ ̄ ̜ǯ Ҡ ˙ࠒ ǵːˈ˲֗ : 2ȃ˅˞̪
ݔ 0 1 2 3
ܲ(ܺ = ݔ) = ݂(ݔ) 1/8 3/8 3/8 1/8
1 3 3 1 3
= )ܺ(ܧ ݔ. ݂( = )ݔ0. + 1. + 2. + 3. = = 1.5
8 8 8 8 2
௫
Ȉ ˰Ǫࠄ ̊ ̴ˡ̸̤Ǫǵ̸̶̆ Ǯ Ǫ˲̪dz˰̊ ̂ ˷̸˗̪ȇǫȓ̴ˡ̸̤Ǫǵ̸̶̆ Ǯ Ǫ˲̪dz˰̋ ̤̣ ̸̻̄ ̤ǪȈ ˰Ǫࠄ ̊ ː̋ ̸̜˕Ǫːؒ ̝̤Ǫ̣ ˜ 1.5 اﻟﻘﳰﺔ
. 1500̸̵̴ˡ̸̤Ǫǵ̸̶̆ Ǯ Ǫ˲̪dz˰̊ ̂ ˷̸˗̪ȅȔ˅̙Ҡ ˞̪ǭ˲̪ 1000ː̻˰̝̭̈ ̄ ̜ǯ Ҡ ˙ࠒ ǵːˈ˲֗ǵ˲̢̯˅̴̭ǫȓȉ ǫȓỤ̈̌ ̸̻̄ ̤Ǫ
߆ ۸ ˍ̸̵̪ࠇ̟̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̤Ǫ̂ ˷̸˕˒ 1.5ː̄ ̝̰̤Ǫȅ ǫȓԷ˰ˡ̸̤ːˈ˲ˣ˕̤Ǫ̳˱̶̤ࠅ ۡ ˧ȔҟǪ̈ ̻Ƕ̸˕̧ ̥ࠅ ۡ ˧ȔҟǪǰǵ˰Ǫࠃ ǪȔԷ˲̇ ̸̭̤ȇ
: اﻟﺸﲁ اﻟﺘﺎﱄ
XفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˧ ۡ ࠅ̥ ̧̫˕̏ٸȔҟǪǰǵ˰Ǫ
= )ܺ(ܧ1,5
{̣ ˾ ̲̪̚فǪ̸˻ ̉˒ˋ˅̬̪̽˗̏ٸ
ﻫﻮ اﻟﻘﳰﺔ اﳌﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﳌﺮﺑﻊ إﳓﺮافXفǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪ̬̽˅ˋ˒ . ̴̋ߤ = )ܺ(ܧ ̸̜˒Ụ̈̌ ˾ ̲̪̚فǪ̸˻ ̉ ̪˗̏ٸX ﻟﯿﻜﻦ
{ȅ ǫȓȉ ǫȓǙ̴̄ ˷̸˗̪̬̉فǪ̸˻ ̋ ̤Ǫ˕̏ٸǪ
ܸ(ܺ) = ߪଶ = ܺ(ܧ− ߤ)ଶ = ( ݔ− ߤ)ଶ . ݂()ݔ
௫
(ܺ − ߤ)ଶ = ܺ ଶ − 2ܺߤ + ߤଶ
ܸ(ܺ) = ܺ(ܧ− ߤ)ଶ = ( ݔ− ߤ)ଶ . ݂( ܺ(ܧ = )ݔଶ) − [])ܺ(ܧଶ = ݔଶ ݂( )ݔ− [])ܺ(ܧଶ
௫ ௫