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Linear Models

Talha Farooq
School of Natural Sciences
MS Statistics

National University of Sciences & Technology


Pakistan
Introduction
The term Model is a representation of some phenomenon by us-
ing data or information. We create a representation as a mathe-
matically. This representation is a Model and by using this model,
we can predict the future results of given data.
The term Phenomenon could be Earthquake or height.
Linear Models are used for a wide variety of statistical analysis.
The basic concept is that a dependent variable can be predicted
from a set of independent variables that are related in a linear
fashion.
Linear Models
A linear model relating a random response Y to a set of indepen-
dent variables x1 , x2 , ..., xk is of the form
Yi = β0 + β1 x1 + β2 x2 + ... + βi xi + i
where β0 , β1 , ..., βk are unknown parameters,  is a random variable
and the variables x1 , x2 , ..., xk assume known values.
Yi 's is dependent (response) variable.
i 's are error components.
βi is population slope.
β0 is population Y-intercept.
Xi 's are Independent (explanatory) variables.
When we have only one explanatory variable then it becomes
simple linear model and if has two or more Independent variables
then it is multiple linear model.

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We draw an estimated line and we get expected value.
E(Y ) = βˆ0 + βˆ1 X1

Estimated line can be drawn by using Least Square method.


The principle of Least Square Method is to draw a line in such a
way that the dierence between the observed points and the
tted line must be minimized.
We postulate that Y = βˆ0 + βˆ1 X + , where  possesses some
probability distribution with E() = 0.
The dierence between actual Y and predicted Y values is
minimum but positive dierence o-set negative ones. So, square
errors n n
X X
(Yi − Ŷ )2 = ˆi 2
i=1 i=1

We put the value of Yi and nd values of unknown parameters.


We will get,
Sxy
βˆ1 =
Sxx
Where
n
X
Sxy = (xi − x̄)(yi − ȳ)
i=1
n
X
Sxx = (xi − x̄)2
i=1

And
βˆ0 = Ȳ − βˆ1 x̄

Applications
Linear Models are used to predict the relationship between two
variables. The variable that is being predicted is dependent
variable.
Industrial sciences
The Pzer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine is approved by six
countries. U.S announced an agreement with U.S.-based Pizer
Inc. for large scale production and nationwide delivery of 100
million doses of a COVID-19 in the United States following the

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vaccine's successful manufacture and approval.The agreement
also allows the U.S government to acquire an additional 500
million doses. Our dependent variable is the production amount
of COVID-19 vaccine by the of this year. They have target to
manufacture 300 million doses. The independent variables could
be licensed by the U.S. food and Drug Administration. Pzer is
collaborating with BioNTech, a German biotechnology company,
to develop COVID-19 investigational vaccines without U.S.
government nancial support. If we add nancial support from
WHO and U.S. and add more biotechnology companies then we
can get our results with much less time.
n
X
Y = β0 + β1 Xi
i=1

Where, Y is our outcome and Xi 's are independent factors and β1


is slope. By using this model, we can forecast the production of
corona doses. If we have more money and more production tools,
then we will be able to produce as much corona doses as we
need.
Medical sciences
Like we discuss the production of COVID-19 vaccine and if we
manufacture as much doses as we need in the emergency areas by
the end of this year, then we will see an increase in people's
recovery and reduction in new corona cases. By using these
scenario, we can predict when the virus will be controlled and
people will return to a prosperous life.

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