Climate Change in Kashmir Himalaya and Its Impact

Climate Change in Kashmir Himalaya and its Impact
By
Soliha Mehraj
Throughout the previous century, rise in temperature and surge in CO 2 concentration because of
innumerable factors comprising alteration land usage pattern and greenhouse gas (GHG)
emanations from agricultural and industrial zone, have caused variations in the earth’s climate.
This surge in the GHG’s emanationis expected to impact the earth’s temperature, precipitation,
pattern of storms and sea levels. The noticeable impacts of the variabilities in climate have been
previously seen with regard to occurrence of extreme events like floods, drought, heat wave, cold
wave, etc.Global temperatures have shown a warming up tendency of 0.87°C during 1880-2015
owing to rise in anthropogenic activities. A parallel warming up tendency of similar scale in
annual surface air temperatures has been also perceived in India during the period 1901-2015.
2015 was observed to be the warmest year during the period. High temperature for the period of
monsoon (+0.72°C above average) and for the post monsoon period (+1.1°C above average) was
the main contributor to the high annual temperature.
The Kashmir valley is the principal valley among the numerous valleys located in the
state of Jammu and Kashmir. The valley is surrounded by the Pir Panjal Range on the southwest
side and the Himalayan range on the northeast. The valley covers an area of about 15,948 sq. km.
and has analtitude of about 1730 m above msl. Climate in the valley is moderate due to its
geographic location.The normal annual precipitation in the valley 823.9 mm and the normal
annual maximum and minimum temperatures are 19.6 ºC and 6.8 ºC respectively.With changes
in rainfall patterns, farmers face dual threats from flooding and drought. Both extremes can
destroy food crops. Flooding washes away fertile topsoil that farmers depend on for productivity,
while droughts dry it out, making it more easily blown or washed away. Higher temperatures
increase crop’s water needs, making them even more vulnerable during dry periods. Wheat,
maize and rice crops grown in about 250,000 hectares, 210,000 hectares and 110,000 hectares
respectively are the major cereal crops of Jammu and Kashmir division. Basmati rice and
rajmash (pulses) are valuable cash crops of the Jammu region.
Food production is very dependant on changes in local climate. A year of not enough or
too much rainfall, a hot spell or a cold snap at the wrong time, extremes such as like flooding and
storms, can have a significant effect on local crop yields and livestock production.
The species diversity, habitats, forests, wildlife, fisheries and the water resources of the
valley also face severe threat from climate change. Wetlands that support 20% of the known
biodiversity of the region will face adverse effects due to climate change.
J&K has surpassed the world average in temperature rise (for the last 100 years). As
against the global increase of 0.8 to 0.9, the state has recorded a 1.2 degree Celsius rise in
temperature. Seasonal air temperatures also show a rise in all seasons, which, according to
experts, is a cause of concern.
The annual rainfall in the Himalayan region is likely to vary between 1268±225.2 and
1604±175.2 mm in the 2030s. Kashmir Valley-based environmentalists / agriculturalists believe
that an abnormal rise in temperatures in particular can prove drastic for some of our native
plants, increasing their sterility and hence lowering the overall production
According to the interpretation of satellite data collected for the period of October-
December 2008, the forest cover of Jammu and Kashmir is spread over 22,539 sq. km (including
area outside the LoC) accounti ng for 10.14% of the State’s geographical area. The State of
Jammu and Kashmir has rich diverse forest resources and plays an important role to preserve the
fragile ecosystem of the State and it also serves as catchments for Himalayan Rivers. In Jammu
and Kashmir, the perennial water supply including groundwater recharge, and health of soils, is
primarily dependant upon the area and quality of forest cover. A healthy forest cover is essential
for long term operation of hydroelectric projects. The State forest provides some environmental
services like carbon sequestration, pollution abatement, and amelioration of climate, in-situ
conservation of biodiversity and maintenance of ecological balance. Since there is unique
aesthetic value of forest landscape and huge potential for tourism in the State, the forests plays a
pivotal role to make the State an ideal tourist destination. Forests and climate change are
inherently linked. When kept healthy, forests play a key role in our national climate change
strategy. Over geologic time, changes in disturbance regimes are a natural part of all ecosystems.
However, loss of forest’s ability to mitigate the effects of climate change will mean losing many
important ecosystem good and services. Due to high dependency on forest for timber and fuel
wood deforestation is an ongoing process. On the other hand the livestock population in the State
is 9.90 million resulting in huge demand for fodder. In addition most of these livestocks graze in
forests. Grazing and trampling of saplings by livestock is the biggest threat to regeneration of
vegetation in all forested areas of the State. Low tree density, low bio-diversity status as well as
higher levels of fragmentati on contribute to the vulnerability of these forests. The current biotic
and abiotic stresses are likely to exacerbate the projected impact of climate change that indicates
towards shift of vegetation of the forest grid including tropical dry deciduous grids, tropical wet
evergreen forests and tropical thorny scrub forest. The key priorities proposed under the Green
mission India is to reduce the impact of climate change are as follow:
1. Implementati on of J&K State Forest Policy

2. Capacity building and awareness for all levels of stakeholders.
3. Eco-restorati on through aff orestati on and Climate oriented eco-restoration plan.
4. Phenological Studies of Forest and other Tree Species.
5. Flora and Fauna vulnerability study.
6. Studies of carbon influxes/ out fluxes of various forest types / trees and their role in carbon
sequestration.
7. Climate impact study in undisturbed/ protected forest areas.
8. Nursery development for climate adaptable species
9. Study of climate change impact on wild life species
10. Climate change impacts on undisturbed forest area like national parks
11. Study on soil organic carbon of forest area
12. Studies of impact of managed watershed under different management system on sustained
water availability
The changing climate will create havoc in future if the same trend continues. With
increasing water crisis, population explosion and climate change, the import of grains is going to
be an uphill task in future and will further widen the already stressed fiscal deficit.

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Climate Change in Kashmir Himalaya and its Impact

1. Implementati on of J&K State Forest Policy

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