TEMASEK JUNIOR COLLEGE, SINGAPORE

JC 2
Preliminary Examinations 2018
Higher 2

MATHEMATICS 9758/02
Paper 2 12 September 2018

Additional Materials: Answer paper 3 hours

List of Formulae (MF26)

READ THESE INSTRUCTIONS FIRST

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Give non-exact numerical answers correct to 3 significant figures, or 1 decimal place in the case of
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required to present the mathematical steps using mathematical notations and not calculator
commands.

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The number of marks is given in brackets [ ] at the end of each question or part question.

At the end of the examination, fasten all your work securely together.

This document consists of 7 printed pages and 1 blank page.

 Section A: Pure Mathematics [40 marks]

1 A curve C has parametric equations

x  2et , y  t3  t ,
3
where 1  t  .
2
dy
(i) Find in terms of t. Hence find the exact equations of the normals to the curve
dx
which are parallel to the y-axis. [3]

(ii) Sketch the curve C. [1]

(iii) Find the equation of the tangent to C at the point (2e a , a 3  a) . Find the possible exact
values of a such that the tangent cuts the y-axis at y = 1. [4]

2 A convergent geometric progression has first term a and common ratio r, where a > 0 and
r > 0. An arithmetic progression has positive first term b and non-zero common difference
d. It is given that the 6 th, 9th and 16th terms of the geometric progression are equal to the 7th,
10th and 13th terms of the arithmetic progression respectively.

(a) Find d in terms of b and r. Hence show that the arithmetic progression is a decreasing
sequence. [4]

(b) (i) Show that r satisfies the equation

r10 – 2r3 + 1 = 0.

Hence find the value of r, giving your answer correct to 3 significant figures.[4]

(ii) Using the value of r found in (i), find the least value of n for which the sum to
infinity of the geometric series exceeds the sum of the first n terms by less than
0.006a. [3]
3 Let f ( x)  3  sin x  cos x .
2
d2 y  dy 
(i) Given that y = f (x), show that 2 y 2  2    y 2  3 . [3]
dx  dx 
Hence obtain the Maclaurin’s expansion of y up to and including the term in x2.
[3]
(ii) If x is sufficiently small for terms in x3 and higher powers of x to be neglected, show
that the same result in (i) may be obtained using suitable standard series expansions.
[3]
(iii) Denote the answer to (i) by g(x). On the same set of axes, sketch the graphs of y  f ( x )
and y = g (x) for −5 < x < 5. Explain why the graphs are similar only for a certain range
of values of x. [3]

2 2 2 2
4 (a) Given that p and q are two non-zero vectors, show that p  q  p q   p q  .

[2]
(b) The points O, A and B are distinct and non-collinear. A and B have position vectors a
and b respectively. It is given that AOB  90 and a   b where  is a constant.

Point M is the midpoint of AB and point T lies on OM produced such that 3OM = MT.
(i) Write down a vector equation of the line AB in terms of a and b. [1]
(ii) Show that the position vector of the foot of perpendicular from point T to line
1 
AB is given by
1  2 
 2 2  1 a   2   2  b  . [6]

Section B: Statistics [60 marks]

5 5 French, 3 Croatian and 2 Belgian dancers were invited to perform at a charity event, where
a dinner was held to welcome them. In how many ways can these dancers be seated at a
round table if those of the same nationality must sit next to one another? [2]

For the opening item, the dancers were randomly divided into two groups of 3 dancers each
and one group of 4 dancers. Find the number of ways this can be done. [2]

At the end of the performance, 5 of the 10 dancers were chosen to pose for photographs.
Find the number of ways the dancers can be arranged in a row, if exactly 3 of the chosen
dancers are of the same nationality. [3]
6 [2017 AJC H2/Prelim 9758/02/Q5]
A vehicle insurance company classifies the drivers it insures as class A, B and C according
to whether they are of low risk, medium risk or high risk with regard to having an accident.
The company estimates that 30% of the drivers who are insured are class A and 50% are
class B. The probability that a class A driver will have at least one accident in any 12 month
period is 0.01, the corresponding probabilities for class B and C are 0.03 and 0.06
respectively.
(i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen driver will have at least one accident in
a 12-month period. [2]

(ii) The company sold a policy to a driver and within 12 months, the driver had at least
one accident. Find the probability that the driver is of class C. [2]

(iii) Three drivers insured by the company are chosen randomly. Find the probability that
all three drivers are of class C and exactly one of them had at least one accident in a
12-month period. [3]
7 A company manufactures tennis balls with radii that are normally distributed with mean 3.3
cm and standard deviation 0.2 cm.
(i) Find the probability that the radius of a randomly selected tennis ball lies between
3.135 cm and 3.465 cm.
Without any further calculation, explain with the aid of a diagram how the answer
obtained would compare with the probability that the radius lies between 3.465 cm
and 3.795 cm. [3]

(ii) 3 tennis balls are randomly selected. Find the probability that the largest tennis ball
has radius less than 3.4 cm. [2]

The tennis balls are packed into cylindrical tubes for sale. The cylindrical tubes have lengths
that are normally distributed with mean 20 cm and standard deviation 0.3 cm. 3 tennis balls
are randomly selected and packed into a randomly selected cylindrical tube such that the
first tennis ball is in contact with the end of the tube and each subsequent ball is in contact
with its neighbouring ball as shown in the diagram below.

opening of tube
gap

Third
tennis ball

length of
cylindrical tube Second
tennis ball

First
tennis ball

end of tube

(iii) The probability that a gap exists between the third tennis ball and the opening of the
tube and that the gap is at least k cm long is at least 0.15. Assuming that the centres
of all the tennis balls are vertically aligned, find the possible range of values of k.[4]
8 Box A contains five cards numbered 1, 1, 2, 2 and 3 and Box B contains three cards numbered
4, 4 and 5. Cards numbered 1 and 5 are red, whereas cards numbered 2, 3 and 4 are blue.
A card is drawn from each of the two boxes. If both cards are the same colour then the score
will be the product of the numbers on the two cards. If both cards are different in colour then
the score will be the sum of the numbers on the two cards.
Let X be the score obtained. The probability distribution of X is given below:
x 5 7 8 12

P(X = x) h k 1 k
3
2
(i) Show that h  . [2]
5
(ii) Find k, E(X) and Var(X). [4]
(iii) Find the probability that the mean score of 60 independent observations of X lies
between 6.5 and 7.5. [3]
In a game, a player pays $20 and draws a card each from Box A and Box B. She receives, in
dollars, an amount equal to three times the score obtained. Find the variance of her winnings
per game. [2]

9 In an industrial process, a machine is programmed to manufacture metal pieces of length 8

cm. An automated quality-control function in the machine takes measurements from a
random sample of 48 metal pieces and collates them. X is the random variable that denotes
the length of one metal piece.
During a routine inspection, the quality-control manager retrieves one set of readings from
the machine and obtains the following information:
2
 x  390, x  3181.

Based on this set of data, test, at the 4% level of significance, whether the mean length of
metal pieces produced by the machine is indeed 8 cm. [6]
Explain, in the context of the question, the meaning of “at the 4% level of significance”.
[1]
A series of 12 routine inspections was carried out over a year. For each inspection, a test, at
4% level of significance, was performed. All the tests concluded that the mean length of
metal pieces produced is not 8 cm. Find the expected number of inspections that made an
incorrect conclusion. [2]
After a few months of operations, it is found that the length of metal pieces produced by the
machine have a standard deviation of 0.4 cm. It is also known that the use of oversized metal
pieces in subsequent manufacturing processes is more likely to result in equipment failure
and production line disruption.
The quality-control manager is asked to test, at the 3% level of significance, whether the
machine is producing oversized metal pieces. If that is the case, the machine will be replaced.
A sample of size 80 is used and the sample mean length is denoted by x cm. Find the range
of values of x for which the machine will not be replaced. [4]
10 Mrs Gat’s confectionery produces a large number of sweets every day. On average, 20% of
the sweets are wasabi-flavoured and the rest are caramel-flavoured.

A random sample of n sweets is chosen. If the probability that there are fewer than three
wasabi-flavoured sweets in the sample is at most 0.3, find the least possible value of n. [3]

Mrs Gat decides to put the sweets randomly into packets of 20.

(i) A customer selects packets of 20 sweets at random from a large consignment until she
finds a packet with exactly 12 wasabi-flavoured sweets. Give a reason, in the context
of the question, why a binomial distribution is not an appropriate model for the number
of packets she selects. [1]
(ii) Find the probability that a randomly chosen packet of sweets contains at least 3
wasabi-flavoured sweets. [2]
(iii) Find the probability that a randomly chosen packet of sweets contains fewer wasabi-
flavoured sweets than caramel-flavoured sweets, given that it contains at least 3
wasabi-flavoured sweets. [3]

Mrs Gat then packs the packets of sweets into boxes. Each box contains 10 packets of sweets.

(iv) Find the probability that each packet in a randomly chosen box contains at least 3
wasabi-flavoured sweets. [1]
(v) Find the probability that there are at least 30 wasabi-flavoured sweets in a randomly
chosen box. [2]
(vi) Explain why the answer to (v) is greater than the answer to (iv). [1]

End of Paper
2018 TJC JC 2 Preliminary Examinations H2 Maths (9758) Paper 2 – [Marking Scheme]

1 A curve C has parametric equations

x  2et , y  t 3  t ,
3
where 1  t  .
2
dy
(iv) Find in terms of t. Hence find the exact equations of the normals to the curve
dx
which are parallel to the y-axis. [3]

(v) Sketch the curve C. [1]

(vi) Find the equation of the tangent to C at the point (2e a , a 3  a ) . Find the possible
exact values of a such that the tangent cuts the y-axis at y = 1. [4]
[Solution]
dx
(iv) x  2et   2et
dt
dy
y  t3  t   3t 2  1
dt
2
dy 3t  1

dx 2et
2et
Gradient of normal =  2
3t  1
For normals to be parallel to y-axis, 3t 2  1  0
1 1
 t or
3 3
1 1

 x  2e 3 or x  2e 3
1 1

 Equations of normals parallel to the y-axis are x  2e 3 and x  2e 3

(v) y

x
O 2 2e

3a 2  1
(vi) Equation of the tangent at t = a: y  (a3  a )  a
( x  2ea )
2e
3a 2  1
When x = 0, y = 1, 1  (a 3  a )  a
(0  2ea )
2e
2
a (a  3a  1)  0

3 13 3 13 3
 a  0 or a   or a   (rejected as  1  t  )
2 2 2 2 2
2 A convergent geometric progression has first term a and common ratio r, where a > 0 and
r > 0. An arithmetic progression has positive first term b and non-zero common difference
d. It is given that the 6 th, 9th and 16th terms of the geometric progression are equal to the 7th,
10th and 13th terms of the arithmetic progression respectively.

(c) Find d in terms of b and r. Hence show that the arithmetic progression is a decreasing
sequence. [4]

(d) (i) Show that r satisfies the equation

r10 – 2r3 + 1 = 0.
Hence find the value of r, giving your answer correct to 3 significant figures. [4]

(ii) Using the value of r found in (i), find the least value of n for which the sum to
infinity of the geometric series exceeds the sum of the first n terms by less than
0.006a. [3]
[Solution]
(a)(i) b  6d  ar 5 --- (1)
b  9 d  ar 8 --- (2)
b  12d  ar 15 --- (3)
(2) b  9d
: r3   br 3  6r 3d  b  9d (3) b(1  r10 )
(1) b  6d OR  d  10
(1) 6r  12
d (6r 3  9)  b(1  r 3 )
(3) b(1  r 7 )
3
b(1  r ) d  7
 d (2) 9r  12
6r 3  9
with similar arguments to deduce d < 0
Since the GP is convergent, r  1 .
0  r  1 and b  0
 b(1  r 3 )  0 and 6r 3  9  0 . Hence d < 0.
Thus the arithmetic progression is a decreasing sequence.

(b)(i) (2)  (1): 3d  ar 8  ar 5  ar 5 (r 3  1)

(3)  (2): 3d  ar15  ar 8  ar 8 (r 7  1)

Equating, ar 5 (r 3  1)  ar 8 (r 7  1)
Since r  0, r 3  1  r 3 ( r 7  1)
r 10  2r 3  1  0 (shown)
Using GC, r = 0.83518 = 0.835 (3 s.f.) or r = 1 (rejected since 0 < r < 1)

(ii) 0  S  Sn  0.006a
a a(1  r n ) 0.83518n
  0.006a   0.006
1 r 1 r 1  0.83518
0.83518n  0.0098892
n ln 0.83518  ln 0.0098892
n  38.4

 least n = 39
3 Let f ( x)  3  sin x  cos x .
2
d2 y  dy 
(i) Given that y = f (x), show that 2 y2
 2    y2  3 . [3]
dx  dx 
Hence obtain the Maclaurin’s expansion of y up to and including the term in x2.
[3]
(ii) If x is sufficiently small for terms in x3 and higher powers of x to be neglected, show
that the same result in (i) may be obtained using suitable standard series
expansions. [3]
(iv) Denote the answer to (i) by g(x). On the same set of axes, sketch the graphs of y  f ( x )
and y = g (x) for −5 < x < 5. Explain why the graphs are similar only for a certain range
of values of x. [3]
[Solution]
(i) y  3  sin x  cos x  y2 = 3 + sin x + cos x
 dy 
 2 y    cos x  sin x
 dx 
2
 d2 y   dy 
 2 y  2   2     sin x  cos x  3  y 2
 dx   dx 
2
d2 y  dy 
 2 y 2  2    y2  3
dx  dx 
When x = 0, y = 3  0  1  2
 dy  dy 1
2(2)    1  0  
d
  x dx 4
2
d2 y 1 d2 y 9
2(2) 2  2    2 2  3  2  
dx 4 dx 32
 9 
1   1 9
32  2
Hence y = 2  x   x  ...  2  x  x 2  ...
4 2! 4 64
1 2
(ii) For small values of x, sin x  x and cos x  1  x
2
1   1  1  
1
2 2  2      2 2 
 1  2  x x  1 x x  2 2 x x 
y   4  x  x 2  = 2 1    = 2 1             ... 
 2   4 8   2 4 8  2! 4 8  
 
 
2
  x x   1  x 
2 
=  2            ... 
  4 8   4  4  
 
1 9 2
= 2  x  x (shown)
4 64
(iii)

The graphs are similar for small values of x close to 0,

5 5
since terms in higher powers of x in the expansion are
omitted.
 2 2 2 2
4 (a) Given that p and q are two non-zero vectors, show that p  q  p q   pq  . [2]

(b) The points O, A and B are distinct and non-collinear. A and B have position vectors a

and b respectively. It is given that AOB  90 and a   b where  is a constant.

Point M is the midpoint of AB and point T lies on OM produced such that 3OM = MT.
(iii) Write down a vector equation of the line AB in terms of a and b. [1]
(iv) Show that the position vector of the foot of perpendicular from point T to line
1 
AB is given by
1  2 
2
 2
 
2  1 a  2   b  .
  [6]

[Solution]
2 2 2
(a) p  q  p q sin 2 

p q
2 2
1  cos  
2

2 2 2 2 2
 p q  p q cos 
2 2 2
 p q   p q 

(b) (i) Equation of line AB is r  a    b  a  where   .

 1
(ii) OM   a  b 
2
 
OT  4OM  2  a  b 

Let F be the foot of perpendicular from T to line AB.


OF  a    b  a   1    a   b for some    .

TF  1   a  b 2  a  b 

    2  b  1    a
 
Since TF is perpendicular to AB, TF  AB  0

   2  b  1    a   b  a   0

(since AOB  90  ab  0 )

2 2
  2 b  1    a  0

2 2 2
  2 b  1     b  0

2  2
 2
1 
 2   2  2  2 
 OF  2
b  1  2 
a
1   1  
1 
=
1  2  2
  2
2  1 a  2   b 
  (shown)
5 5 French, 3 Croatian and 2 Belgian dancers were invited to perform at a charity event, where
a dinner was held to welcome them. In how many ways can these dancers be seated at a
round table if those of the same nationality must sit next to one another? [2]

For the opening item, the dancers were randomly divided into two groups of 3 dancers each
and one group of 4 dancers. Find the number of ways this can be done. [2]

At the end of the performance, 5 of the 10 dancers were chosen to pose for photographs.
Find the number of ways the dancers can be arranged in a row, if exactly 3 of the chosen
dancers are of the same nationality. [3]

[Solution]
Number of ways to sit the dancers = 2!  5!  3!  2!  2880

Arrange the 3 groups

at a round table

10
C3  7C3  4C4
Number of ways to divide the dancers =  2100
2!

5 5 3 7
Number of ways of choosing 5 dancers with 3 of same nationality = C3  C2  C3  C2 = 121

Required number of ways of arrangements = 121  5! = 14520

 6 [2017 AJC H2/Prelim 9758/02/Q5]
A vehicle insurance company classifies the drivers it insures as class A, B and C according
to whether they are of low risk, medium risk or high risk with regard to having an accident.
The company estimates that 30% of the drivers who are insured are class A and 50% are
class B. The probability that a class A driver will have at least one accident in any 12 month
period is 0.01, the corresponding probabilities for class B and C are 0.03 and 0.06
respectively.
(i) Find the probability that a randomly chosen driver will have at least one accident in
a 12-month period. [2]

(ii) The company sold a policy to a driver and within 12 months, the driver had at least
one accident. Find the probability that the driver is of class C. [2]

(iii) Three drivers insured by the company are chosen randomly. Find the probability that
all three drivers are of class C and exactly one of them had at least one accident in a
12-month period. [3]
Solution
(i) Required probability A
Accident
=  0.3  0.01   0.5  0.03   0.2  0.06  B Accident

= 0.03 C Accident

(ii) P  accident  class C 

P(class C/accident) 
P  accident 
0.2  0.06
  0.4
0.03

(iii) P( all three drivers are of class C and exactly one have accident)
2 3!
  0.2  0.94   0.2  0.06 
2!
= 0.00127 (to 3sf)
7 A company manufactures tennis balls with radii that are normally distributed with mean 3.3
cm and standard deviation 0.2 cm.
(i) Find the probability that the radius of a randomly selected tennis ball lies between
3.135 cm and 3.465 cm.
Without any further calculation, explain with the aid of a diagram how the answer
obtained would compare with the probability that the radius lies between 3.465 cm
and 3.795 cm. [3]

(ii) 3 tennis balls are randomly selected. Find the probability that the largest tennis ball
has radius less than 3.4 cm. [2]

The tennis balls are packed into cylindrical tubes for sale. The cylindrical tubes have lengths
that are normally distributed with mean 20 cm and standard deviation 0.3 cm. 3 tennis balls
are randomly selected and packed into a randomly selected cylindrical tube such that the
first tennis ball is in contact with the end of the tube and each subsequent ball is in contact
with its neighbouring ball as shown in the diagram below.

opening of tube
gap

Third
tennis ball

length of
cylindrical tube Second
tennis ball

First
tennis ball

end of tube

(iii) The probability that a gap exists between the third tennis ball and the opening of the
tube and that the gap is at least k cm long is at least 0.15. Assuming that the centres
of all the tennis balls are vertically aligned, find the possible range of values of k. [4]
[Solution]
Let R be the radius of a randomly chosen tennis ball. R ~ N  3.3, 0.2 2 
(i) P  3.135  R  3.465  0.59063  0.591 (3 s.f.)

0.592

P(3.465 < R < 3.795)

A
B
3.135 3.465 3.795

From diagram, P  3.135  R  3.465 > P  3.465  R  3.795 

since area A is larger than area B given that the widths of the two intervals 3.135  R  3.465
and 3.465  R  3.795 are the same.

3
(ii) Required probability =  P  R  3.4    0.331 (3 sf)

(iii) Let H be the height of a randomly chosen cylindrical tube. H ~ N  20, 0.32 

Gap, G = H  2 ( R1  R2  R3 )

G  N( 20  2(3.3  3), 0.32  2 2 (0.2 2  3) )

2
i.e. G  N( 0.2, 0.57 )

P(G  k )  0.15
Using GC, 0  k  0.982
8 Box A contains five cards numbered 1, 1, 2, 2 and 3 and Box B contains three cards numbered
4, 4 and 5. Cards numbered 1 and 5 are red, whereas cards numbered 2, 3 and 4 are blue.
A card is drawn from each of the two boxes. If both cards are the same colour then the score
will be the product of the numbers on the two cards. If both cards are different in colour then
the score will be the sum of the numbers on the two cards.
Let X be the score obtained. The probability distribution of X is given below:
x 5 7 8 12
1
P(X = x) h k k
3
2
(i) Show that h  . [2]
5
(ii) Find k, E(X) and Var(X). [4]
(iii) Find the probability that the mean score of 60 independent observations of X lies
between 6.5 and 7.5. [3]

In a game, a player pays $20 and draws a card each from Box A and Box B. She receives, in
dollars, an amount equal to three times the score obtained. Find the variance of her winnings
per game. [2]
[Solution]
(i) h  P  X  5   P 1 from box A, 4 from box B   P 1 from box A, 5 from box B
2 2 2 1
   
5 3 5 3
2
 (shown)
5
2 1 2
(ii) Total probability = 1,  k   k 1 k 
5 3 15
2 2 1 2 36
E  X   5   7   8   12  
5 15 3 5 5
2
Var  X   E X   E  X 
2

2
856  36  392
   
15  5  75

X 1  X 2  ......  X 60
(iii) X 
60
Since sample size 60 is large, by Central Limit Theorem,
  392  
 36  76  
X ~ N ,    = N  36 , 98  approximately.
 
 5 60   5 1125 
 
 

 
P 6.5  X  7.5  0.836 (3 s.f.)

Let W be the player’s winnings per game. W = 3X  20

2 1176
Var W   3 Var  X   0  or 47.04 (exact) or 47.0 (3 s.f.)
25
9 In an industrial process, a machine is programmed to manufacture metal pieces of length 8
cm. An automated quality-control function in the machine takes measurements from a
random sample of 48 metal pieces and collates them. X is the random variable that denotes
the length of one metal piece.
During a routine inspection, the quality-control manager retrieves one set of readings from
the machine and obtains the following information:
2
 x  390, x  3181.

Based on this set of data, test, at the 4% level of significance, whether the mean length of
metal pieces produced by the machine is indeed 8 cm. [6]
Explain, in the context of the question, the meaning of “at the 4% level of significance”.
[1]
A series of 12 routine inspections was carried out over a year. For each inspection, a test, at
4% level of significance, was performed. All the tests concluded that the mean length of
metal pieces produced is not 8 cm. Find the expected number of inspections that made an
incorrect conclusion. [2]
After a few months of operations, it is found that the length of metal pieces produced by the
machine have a standard deviation of 0.4 cm. It is also known that the use of oversized metal
pieces in subsequent manufacturing processes is more likely to result in equipment failure
and production line disruption.
The quality-control manager is asked to test, at the 3% level of significance, whether the
machine is producing oversized metal pieces. If that is the case, the machine will be replaced.
A sample of size 80 is used and the sample mean length is denoted by x cm. Find the range
of values of x for which the machine will not be replaced. [4]
[Solution]
Let  be the population mean length of metal pieces.
390 1  3902 
x  8.125 and s 2   3181    0.26064 (5sf)
48 47  48 
H0 :  = 8
H1 :  ≠ 8
Level of significance: 4%
Under H0, since the sample size n = 48 is large, by Central Limit Theorem,
X 8
the test statistic: Z = ~ N(0,1) approximately.
 0.26064 
 
 48 

From GC, z cal = 1.696

p-value = 0.0898 > 0.04
Since the p-value is more than the level of significance, we do not reject H0.
Hence there is insufficient evidence at the 4% level of significance to conclude that the mean
length of the square metal pieces produced by the machine is not 8 cm.

“At the 4% level of significance” means there is a probability of 0.04 that we wrongly conclude
that the mean length of metal pieces produced by the machine is not 8 cm when it is indeed 8 cm.

Expected number of inspections that draw wrong conclusion = 12  0.04  0.48

H0 :  = 8
H1 :  > 8
Given level of significance = 3%,  = 0.4 and n = 80
Under H0, since the sample size n = 80 is large, by Central Limit Theorem,
X 8
the test statistic: Z = ~ N(0,1) approximately.
 0.4 
 
 80 
At 3% level of significance, the critical region is {z: z  1.8808}
Since the machine will not be replaced, H0 is not rejected.
x 8
 1.8808
 0.4 
 
 80 
 0.4 
x  8  1.8808  
 80 
Hence 0  x  8.08
10 Mrs Gat’s confectionery produces a large number of sweets every day. On average, 20% of
the sweets are wasabi-flavoured and the rest are caramel-flavoured.

A random sample of n sweets is chosen. If the probability that there are fewer than three
wasabi-flavoured sweets in the sample is at most 0.3, find the least possible value of n. [3]

Mrs Gat decides to put the sweets randomly into packets of 20.

(vii) A customer selects packets of 20 sweets at random from a large consignment until she
finds a packet with exactly 12 wasabi-flavoured sweets. Give a reason, in the context
of the question, why a Binomial Distribution is not an appropriate model for the
number of packets she selects. [1]
(viii) Find the probability that a randomly chosen packet of sweets contains at least 3
wasabi-flavoured sweets. [2]
(ix) Find the probability that a randomly chosen packet of sweets contains fewer wasabi-
flavoured sweets than caramel-flavoured sweets, given that it contains at least 3
wasabi-flavoured sweets. [3]

Mrs Gat then packs the packets of sweets into boxes. Each box contains 10 packets of sweets.

(x) Find the probability that each packet in a randomly chosen box contains at least 3
wasabi-flavoured sweets. [1]
(xi) Find the probability that there are at least 30 wasabi-flavoured sweets in a randomly
chosen box. [2]
(xii) Explain why the answer to (v) is greater than the answer to (iv). [1]
[Solution]
Let X be the number of wasabi-flavoured sweets (out of n sweets).
X  B  n, 0.2 
P  X  3 = P  X  2   0.3
n P  X  2
17 0.30962
18 0.27134
 least n is 18
(i) The binomial distribution is not an appropriate model as the number of packets to be
selected (in order to find a packet with exactly 12 wasabi-flavoured sweets) is not fixed.

(ii) Let Y be the number of wasabi-flavoured sweets (out of 20).

Y  B  20, 0.2 

P Y  3  1  P  Y  2   0.7939152811  0.794 (3 s.f.)

P  3  Y  9
(iii) P Y  9 | Y  3 
P Y  3

P Y  9   P Y  2 

P Y  3 
= 0.997
 10 10
(iv) Probability =  P  Y  3    0.7939153  0.0995

(v) Let W be the number of wasabi-flavoured sweets (out of 200).

W  B  200, 0.2 
P W  30  = 1  P W  29  = 0.972

(vi) The events in part (iv) is a subset of the events in part (v).
Hence the answer to part (v) is greater than the answer to part (iv).