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    Binomial Distribution 23 Sep

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    The document discusses using a binomial distribution to calculate the probability of making at most 4 sales from 10 sales calls with a 65% chance of success per call. It shows the calculation and determines the probability is 0.0949, which is answer C.

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    Binomial Distribution 23 Sep

    Uploaded by

    पशुपति नाथ
    16 views2 pages
    The document discusses using a binomial distribution to calculate the probability of making at most 4 sales from 10 sales calls with a 65% chance of success per call. It shows the calculation and determines the probability is 0.0949, which is answer C.

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    Binomial distribution 23 sep

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    The document discusses using a binomial distribution to calculate the probability of making at most 4 sales from 10 sales calls with a 65% chance of success per call. It shows the calculation and determines the probability is 0.0949, which is answer C.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    16 views2 pages

    Binomial Distribution 23 Sep

    Uploaded by

    पशुपति नाथ
    The document discusses using a binomial distribution to calculate the probability of making at most 4 sales from 10 sales calls with a 65% chance of success per call. It shows the calculation and determines the probability is 0.0949, which is answer C.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as docx, pdf, or txt
    of 2

    ILLUSTRATION: The probability that a local travel agent will make a sale from a sales call is 0.65.

    If 10 sales calls are


    made to potential customers, what is the probability that he will make at most 4 sales (assume a Binomial
    Distribution)?
    A. 0.0689
    B. 0.9957
    C. 0.0949
    D. 0.0043
    E. 0.1536

    SOLUTION: Binomial distribution suggests, if outcome of an experiment can be classified as success with probability
    p and failure with probability (1-p) then in n-independent trials probability of exactly x-success is given by 

    P(X=x)=C(n,x)*p^x*(1-p)^(n-x) , where x=0,1,2,,3............n

    if we call,       

    1. "sales" as success then probability of success(sales) p=0.65 and 


    2. "no sale" as failure then probability of failure means no sale, (1-p)=(1-0.65) =0.35
    3. "numbers of sales calls" as n-independent trials, n=10

    Then,

    P(X=x)=C(10,x)*(0.65)^x*(0.35)^(10-x) , where x=0,1,2,,3............n

    Henec,

    P(X=0)=C(10,0)*(0.65)^0*(0.35)^(10-0)=1*1*(0.35)^10=(0.35)^10

    P(X=1)=C(10,1)*(0.65)^1*(0.35)^(10-1)=10*(0.65)*(0.35)^9

    P(X=2)=C(10,2)*(0.65)^2*(0.35)^(10-2)=45*(0.65)^2*(0.35)^8

    P(X=3)=C(10,3)*(0.65)^3*(0.35)^(10-3)=120*(0.65)^3*(0.35)^7

    P(X=4)=C(10,4)*(0.65)^4*(0.35)^(10-4)=210*(0.65)^4*(0.35)^6

    Probability that of at most 4 sales

    =P(X<=4)

    =P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)+P(X=3)+P(X=4)

    =(0.35)^10+10*(0.65)*(0.35)^9+45*(0.65)^2*(0.35)^8+120*(0.65)^3*(0.35)^7+210*(0.65)^4*(0.35)^6

    =.094934 use calculator or just copy and paste above expression in excel formula bar.

    Hence Option C is correct.


    Binomial distribution suggests, if outcome of an experiment can be classified as success with probability p and
    failure with probability (1-p) then in n-independent trials probability of exactly x-success is given by 

    P(X=x)=C(n,x)*p^x*(1-p)^(n-x) , where x=0,1,2,,3............n

    if we call,       

    1. "Right answer" as success then probability of success(sales) p=0.5 and is answers are chosen randomly 
    2. "Wrong answer" as failure then probability of failure means no sale, (1-p)=(1-0.5) =0.5
    3. "numbers of questions" as n-independent trials, n=20

    Then,

    P(X=x)=C(20,x)*(0.5)^x*(0.5)^(20-x) , where x=0,1,2,,3............n

               =C(20,x)*(0.5)^20 , where x=0,1,2,,3............n

    Probability of passing=probability of doing 15 or more right answers

                                       =P(X=15)+P(X=16)+P(X=17)+P(X=18)+P(X=19)+P(X=20)

                     
    =C(20,15)*(0.5)^20+C(20,16)*(0.5)^20+C(20,17)*(0.5)^20+C(20,x)*(0.5)^n+C(20,19)*(0.5)^20+C(20,20)*(0.5)^20

                                      =(0.5)^20[C(20,15)+C(20,16)+C(20,17)+C(20,x)+C(20,19)+C(20,20)]

                                     =(0.5)^20[15504+4845+1140+190+20+1]

                                     =0.02069

    If randomly answered there will be 2.7 5 chances of passing.

    But, in realistic situation this probability will be more, as candidate will firstly do those question which he knows well
    and rest of the question onlyy will be chosen randomly.

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