The Changing FDI Picture: Toward Enterprises in Adjusting Economic Decision

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2.1.

Toward enterprises in adjusting economic decision

2.1.1. The changing FDI picture

Since 2018, the US-China trade tensions, the trend of protecting domestic production ...
have caused the flow of investment in the world to decline (over 10% in 2018 and 2019),
at the same time there is a strong shift between regions and countries. In that trend,
ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, are emerging as potential destinations, as
destinations for the reallocation of investment flows, especially the trend of capital flows
from China. According to Nomura Group (2019), from the beginning of 2018 to August
2019, 56 international enterprises have left China to produce in other countries; of which,
26 businesses chose Vietnam, 11 went to Taiwan, 11 went to Thailand, 3 went to India ...

One of the big companies looking to pull out of China is Apple.

This decision was made in the midst of a prolonged trade war between China and the US
that showed no signs of cooling off.

However, sources say that even if the trade war is resolved, Apple will not change their
plans. Because, Apple has evaluated that the risks of depending too much on the
production line in China are too great and even increase.

In addition, this act of Apple also creates a trend that has made significant changes in
global FDI. For example

+ Wistron, one of the partners producing components for Apple, recently said it would
move 50% of production capacity out of China within 1 year. The COVID-19 pandemic
presented a huge risk for investors following the “put all their eggs in one basket”
strategy and Wistron's statement is a prime example of this correction.

+ Foxconn is planning to invest up to 1 billion USD in India to help Apple increase


production capacity of iPhone models.

+ Especially there is information that Apple will produce AirPods in Vietnam instead of
China (3-4 million units, equivalent to 30% of AirPods products)

2.1.2 Changing World Order:


The US-China trade war:
Apparently, Apple is looking to move some iPhone manufacturing out of China. The
current relationship between the US and China continues to deteriorate rapidly, and the
fact that Apple continues to manufacture iPhones in this country could pose great risks.
That is because there is always the possibility that the US Government will take some
action leading to Chinese retaliation.

2.1.2.1 Apple urged component manufacturers to leave China


- All Apple partners acknowledge that China is no longer the most suitable and
economical place to manufacture iPhones.
- According to Nikkei Asian Reviews, Apple urged major supplier partners to
consider relocating 15-30% of iPhone production out of China. Meanwhile, Data
Electronics Inc. specializes in supplying components to Apple are also planning to
buy a branch in Thailand to expand production and reduce costs.
- In June 2019, Foxconn President Young Liu frankly admitted that Foxconn may
have to manufacture iPhones outside of China to avoid damage from US-China
trade tensions.
- Foxconn's factories in China have experienced many fluctuations in the past. This
company along with two other Taiwanese iPhone assemblers, Pegasus and
Wistron, have moved their production lines to India or Southeast Asia.
=> Bloomberg quoted Foxconn President Young Liu telling reporters after the release of
their financial statements."Regardless of whether India, Southeast Asia or the US,
each place will have a manufacturing ecosystem. Although China still plays an
important role in Foxconn's manufacturing empire, the days when China is The
world factory is over"
=> That means: China will no longer be the world's iPhone factory

2.1.2.2. Affected countries when manufacturing enterprises leave:


Pros: Other countries not subject to tax have alternative sources of goods
- Vietnam: telephone components, automatic data processing machines
- Taiwan: typewriter components, office machines, phone accessories
- Chile: copper ore
- Malaysia: electronic circuits, semiconductor equipment
Cons: Asian economies engage in intermediate trade between China and the US
-South Korea, Japan and Taiwan could suffer if the trade war with the US forces China to
change suppliers of semiconductors. Chinese companies each year import about $ 200
billion of microchips, mostly from Korea, Japan and Taiwan, to manufacture phones and
electronic components.

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