The Ultimate Guide To

READING THE
CUMULATIVE FLOW DIAGRAM

How to Recognize the Most Common CFD Patterns

and What They Mean for Your Workflow
 How Many Dots Do You See in
This Picture?

How many dots do you see in this picture? This isn't a trick question.

There are nine dots in this picture. But did you count them one by one or did
you know the answer immediately?

You knew straight away. How did this happen? Your brain recognized a pattern.
Patterns are all around us. And detecting them is an important part of how
humans learn and make decisions. Our brains are very good at doing this.
Everything we do is shaped by pattern recognition.

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 Pattern Recognition &
Decision Мaking

Our ability to recognize faces, understand spoken words, count or read is

shaped by pattern recognition. We use patterns to predict. To connect a cause
with the most likely effect. By definition, this is a process of matching the
incoming stimuli with the information already stored in the brain.

Ever since our birth, we have been treating the information in this manner so
that we can take the best course of action. If you see dark and heavy clouds in
the sky, chances are it will rain. You’ll grab an umbrella on your way out so you
don’t get soaked. You’ve made a decision based on the most likely outcome.
Recognizing patterns plays an essential role in decision making. That's why this
skill has been crucial for our survival.

Of course, predicting the weather is only a basic example. Today, pattern

recognition is used alongside data analytics to optimize stock market
forecasting (Yard Charts), audience research (Google Analytics), Natural
Language Processing (Copyscape, Google Translate, Grammarly), and the
practice we’re interested in the most - product management.

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 The Cumulative Flow Diagram:
Pattern Recognition and
Workflow Optimization

With the visualizing power of the Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD), our data
comes to life and we’re able to spot certain patterns to avoid productivity
losses, delays, poor predictability and other process inefficiencies.

Where there is data, there are patterns. And these patterns tell the stories
through ebbs and flows, flat lines and sudden spikes. You just need to learn
how to read them to be able to evaluate your process performance and enable
early discovery of problem areas such as:

Increasing Work in Progress (WIP)

Process blockages

Productivity losses

Frequent delays

Poor predictability and other flow inefficiencies

An ideal CFD represents a steady growth of completed work and a continuous

delivery of value. But we don't live in an ideal world and deviations are bound
to happen. Spotting and reacting to these deviations quickly can help us stay
on the right track and better perceive the direction we're moving in. By
recognizing some of the most common CFD patterns and understanding what
they mean for our process, we can optimize our workflows and focus on
resolving bottlenecks as they occur.

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 Visualizing the Flow of Work on
a Kanban Board

Development Development (Done) Code Review Code Review (Done) Testing Done

Time out when accessing reports Name MailChimp integration Implement ZenDesk Simplify header menu access
page integration 2
Jul 10 5
Feb 26 2
********** 1

Submit
Missing API date values Align footer text
Webpack update
4 2 7/7 7 2

1 New sign-up form Restyle contact page

1 1
Misaligned members tab Members limit exceeded
1
pop-up
Feb 12 4
Change CFD color scheme
Restyle mobile homepage layout
xxxx xxxx xxxx Jul 10 5
Add daily view to timeline 1

Aa Aa
7 2
Hotjar integration
4 2 7/7
Analyze transactions performance
2

Minor improvements to SSL

7 2
Restyle dark mode font colors
Setup Staging 2 test environment
1
2

Improvements to filtering Certain account values not stored

1 1 Load more activity text font
inconsistent
1

Implement reporting page

7 2

Before we can analyze our data with a CFD, first we need to visualize our
process in a Kanban board. Our Software Development process has 4 process
states - Development, Code Review, Testing, and Done. There are also two
queue states - Development (Done) and Code Review (Done). These are states
with tasks that are waiting to be worked on.

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 A Kanban Pull System

The tasks move across process states when a pull signal has occurred and the
team has the capacity to handle new work. A pull signal occurs when a card is
placed into a queue state - that's why it's so important to split all in progress
steps into active and passive states, that’s essential in kanban pull systems.
This approach will also enable you to track how much time your work is waiting
in your process.

Pull signal

Development Code Review

Testing Done
In Process Done In Process Done

Flow

Working with the Kanban board helps you visualize the flow of work but relying
on the board alone isn’t enough to optimize your workflow. This is where the
CFD comes into play. Let's see how we can build one of our own from an
existing data set.

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 Building a CFD from Your Board Data
Method 1 - Listing Your Stories and
Тheir Arrival Dates in Each Process State

Story ID Development Development Code Review Code Review Testing

(Done) (Done)

1 1 Jul 2019 1 Jul 2019 4 Jul 2019 4 Jul 2019 6 Jul 2019

2 3 Jul 2019 6 Jul 2019 8 Jul 2019 9 Jul 2019 12 Jul 2019

3 4 Jul 2019 10 Jul 2019 12 Jul 2019 13 Jul 2019 15 Jul 2019

4 7 Jul 2019 11 Jul 2019 11 Jul 2019 13 Jul 2019 13 Jul 2019

5 9 Jul 2019 15 Jul 2019 16 Jul 2019 18 Jul 2019 22 Jul 2019

To structure a data set to build your CFD you need to track when each task has
moved through a certain process state.

There are two ways to do this. We can list all of the tasks with their arrival dates
for each process state.

This is an approach with a downside you should keep in mind. You can't track
when work is going back and forth through process states. This approach is
suitable if you only move tasks forward in our board. Keep in mind that if you
move tasks backwards, this won't be taken into account - which could lead to
some major problems going unnoticed.

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 Building a CFD from Your Board Data
Method 2 - Listing Story Activities in
Еach Process State

Story ID Process State Arrival Date Departure Date

1 Development 3 Jul 2019 4 Jul 2019

1 Development (Done) 4 Jul 2019 5 Jul 2019

1 Code Review 5 Jul 2019 7 Jul 2019

1 Development 7 Jul 2019 11 Jul 2019

1 Development (Done) 11 Jul 2019 14 Jul 2019

So to improve upon these flaws, there is a different way of structuring your data
when building a CFD.

Instead of capturing just the arrival dates for each state, we will collect a list of
task activities for each process state. Here, the end date of a previous activity
will mark the start date of the following one. This way, we can record multiple
activities per state, thus those where a task went through the same state
multiple times. As a result, if we move cards backwards on our board, we'll
have a more realistic overview of our workflow.

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 Introducing
the Cumulative Flow Diagram

Development
Development (Done)
Code Review
Code Review (Done)
Testing
Done
Tasks

Apprx. Average Cycle Time

WIP

ut
ughp

Done
l rate hro
rriva a ge T
A Aver

Rate
pa r ture
De

Time

Let’s spend some time going over the anatomy of the Cumulative Flow
Diagram.

The horizontal axis of the chart shows us a timeline. This is the time for which
you're examining your workflow. The vertical axis is a cumulative number of the
tasks in your process - giving the tool its original name. The graph is built from
different colored bands corresponding to a state in your workflow. Each band
tells you how many tasks are in each state at any given time with the bottom
band showing how many tasks have been completed.

When your team pulls a new task into the workflow, the top band expands as
the task enters the first process state. Once the task is moved onto the next
step, that band shrinks and the one below widens, and so on until the task
reaches the Done state.

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 Understanding
the Three Key Flow Metrics

There are three main flow metrics we can track on the Cumulative Flow
Diagram - work in progress, or the amount of tasks in progress in your system;
cycle time, which is the time between starting and finishing a task; and
throughput, which is the number of tasks delivered in a certain day, week or
month.

Cycle time is the time

between starting and finishing
work on a given task.

CYCLE TIME

Work in progress is the

number of tasks in progress
in your workflow.

WORK IN
THROUGHPUT
PROGRESS

Throughput is the number

of tasks delivered on a
certain day, week or month.

The goal is to limit work in progress, reduce cycle times and increase
throughput. In other words, work on fewer things at the same time while
delivering results faster and more often.

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 Work In Progress

120

Development
100 Development (Done)
Code Review
Code Review (Done)
80
Testing
Done Development: 4
Development (Done): 1
60 Code Review: 5
Code Review (Done): 2
Testing: 5
Done: 40

40

20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

Each band on your CFD represents a state in your workflow. The height of each
band shows you the amount of work in progress in that state for a given time.
For example, we can see that on the 20th of June we had 4 tasks in
Development and 2 tasks in Code review (Done). We also know we have
completed 40 tasks between the 4th and 20th of June.

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 Approximate Average Cycle Time

120

Development
100 Development (Done)
Code Review 3 Days

Code Review (Done) 1 Day

80
Testing 2 Days

2 Days
Done 2 Days

60

40 11 Days

20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

The approximate average cycle time tells you how long approximately, on
average, you took to complete all the tasks in a certain date. To calculate it on
your CFD, choose a point on the Done state and draw a horizontal line
backwards until it meets the top line of the graph.

The Approximate Average Cycle Time then i the subtraction of the two dates.

So to calculate the Approximate Average Cycle Time for tasks that finished on
the 20th of June, draw a horizontal line backward until the line intersects the
top line - 9th of June. Our approximate average cycle time for the tasks
completed on 20th of June is 11 days; Approximate average cycle time can also
be calculated for single process states.

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 Average Throughput

120

Development
100 Development (Done)
Code Review
Code Review (Done)
80
Testing
Done
Done: 62

60

40 3 items / day

20 Done: 20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

To figure out the rate at which we're delivering work, we use Average
Throughput. You can find your Average Throughput between any two points on
the bottom line of your chart. On the other hand, if you draw a line between any
two points on the top of your chart, you'll see your average arrivals. To maintain
a stable workflow, aim to keep an equal distance between these two lines. Just
like before, we can calculate our Average Throughput for each process state,
too.

To calculate our average throughput in the period between 14st of June and
28th of June, we need the total amount of tasks for that timeframe. Given we've
completed 42 tasks in those 14 days, our average throughput is 3 tasks per day.

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 The Most Common CFD Patterns

Now that we know how to track the main flow metrics, we can move onto the
most common patterns on your CFD. A word of notice before we start.

Remember that, like any other analytical tool, the CFD won't tell you how to fix
your problems. But it will help you detect them early. When there's a flaw within
your system, this is where you'll see it first. Still you need to look into it within
your context and take preventive action accordingly.

So let's have a look at how to spot the most common CFD patterns and what
they mean for your process.

Differences in gradient Flat lines The S-curve

Bulging bands Stair steps Disappearing bands

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 Differences in Gradient

120

Mismatched arrivals and

100
departures

80
Strictly enforce WIP limits

60

40

20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

Meaning:
Mismatched arrivals and departures. This is probably the most common CFD
pattern you will come across. Usually, the upper line of a band will be steeper
than the lower one. This means that tasks are entering the stream faster than
they are being completed. When new work is arriving faster than old work is
completed, your work in progress will increase over time. An increase in WIP
will most certainly lead to an increase in cycle times, too. Also, as there is more
and more work in progress, your team will start to multitask and switch contexts
to keep up with the demand, ultimately becoming less efficient.

When work is taking longer to complete, deliveries become delayed and more
difficult to forecast. This pattern is a good indicator the predictability and
stability of your process are at risk.

Of course, we are assuming the team setup hasn't changed and the same
amount of people are spending a similar amount of time on the project. If you
see this pattern and you've recently expanded your team, an increase in WIP
across process states is completely fine as there is now more people to handle
the workload.

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 Suggestion for improvement:
There are certain Kanban practices that can help you tackle this pattern and
stabilize your process. Strictly enforce and adhere to WIP limits.

As stated in the Kanban Maturity Model, at maturity level 0, teams realize a limit
to human capacity, a desire for relief from overburdening. They recognize that
multitasking causes work to take longer and its completion to be unpredictable.
It is better to “stop starting, and start finishing.” At this stage, it is crucial to
understand that limiting work in progress helps you avoid multitasking and
reduce the times for delivering work.

At level 1, teams start to apply WIP limits on a personal level, and at maturity
level 2, organizations need to establish both personal WIP limits and team WIP
limits.

Each new practice will cause the bands in your CFD to decrease, the arrival
and departure lines will go in parallel meaning entering work is matching the
rate of completed work. Once you ensure no work is started until the due tasks
are delivered your team will keep their focus on one thing at a time. This
prevents constant context switching and team overburden which boosts your
overall efficiency and productivity.

Get more things done rather than do more things.

Stop starting and start finishing.

“
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 Flat Lines

120

100 Periods of no activity

80 Track process bottlenecks

60

40

20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

Meaning:
Almost every team experiences the CFD pattern in which process state lines
flatten out. Flat lines on your CFD bands mean periods of no activity. The
longer the lines, the longer your tasks aren't being moved through the
workflow. Something is blocking your process and nothing is getting done.

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 Suggestion for improvement:
Let’s say all lines on your CFD flatten out at the same time. Before you raise
alarms here, check for public holidays or company-wide events your team took
part in. There might be a perfect explanation why your team hasn't been
working during this time. Or maybe everyone is stuck due to server
maintenance or any external blocker. Either way, talk to your team, identify and
resolve the blockage. Brainstorm the ways of getting things moving forward
and prevent the issue from happening again.

If the lines flatten out in the Testing state for example while other ones keep a
steady progress, chances are you have a more serious problem at hand.
Maybe your testing environment is causing the blockage, maybe your testers
are struggling with demand and have started multitasking and switching
context, unable to move work through. Either way, work is not leaving the
testing phase, and consequently, you're not delivering anything - the lines
become flat in the Done state too.

There is no point to continue starting items if they aren't getting tested and
delivered. This indicates a cooperation issue, meaning your team is likely still at
the Organizational Maturity Level 1. The team has developed some initial
definition of process workflows, management policies, and decision
frameworks but are struggling to follow them. WIP limits for the entire team
have to be set. Teams at maturity level 2 start visualizing aging work and
blocked items, which helps them understand why the process is getting stuck.

There is no point to continue starting new work

items if they aren’t being delivered.

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“
 The S-Curve

120

Points with little to

100
no progress

Find out what's causing

80
workflow fluctuations

60

40

20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

Meaning:
The S-curve CFD pattern emerges when your progress is steepest in the
middle. The preceding and following bands are either very thin or flat,
indicating times with little to no work in progress. There are two classic
examples of when this might happen. First, a project usually begins with zero
WIP and ideally ends with zero WIP. An ideal sprint starts with zero WIP and
ends with zero WIP. The S-curve CFD pattern causes your process to become
less predictable and forecasting - less accurate.

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 Suggestion for improvement:
WIP should be as consistent as possible in order to maintain a stable and
predictable system. Aim to remove zero WIP flat spots to turn the S-curve back
to a consistent gradient.

Oftentimes, there will be a blockage in one of the upstream processes

preventing your team from continuing to work on tasks, thus causing zero WIP.
It is important to visualize the blocked work items - a practice at ML2,
understand the reasons for the blockages, and resolve them quickly. This way,
you can raise awareness of the impact blocked work can have on your
workflow.

As long as WIP is consistent and the average age

of WIP is consistent, you are maintaining a
predictable system.
“
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 Bulging Bands

120

100 Increasing WIP

Split process steps into active

80
and passive (queue) states

60

40

20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

Meaning:
This is a pattern where one or more bands increase in thickness. It means our
work in progress is increasing. Our delivery times increase as well. More work
in progress usually causes context switching and multitasking. This can take a
serious toll on the efficiency of your team.

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 Suggestion for improvement:
As with every other pattern, we are looking for the root cause of this trend. Why
is our WIP increasing?

Assuming the size of our team is the same we need to investigate for other
clues. Are tasks being pushed by the management instead of pulled by the
team? Is there a blockage in a downstream process state? Try splitting your
process states into Ongoing and Done – adding Done states or queue states
lets you see where tasks are spending too much time waiting to be pulled.
You'll be able to spot those problematic states right away.

This is a visualization practice for teams looking to reach maturity level 2. By

separating your workflow stages in active and inactive columns, you can see
exactly where your team is struggling with the demand.

Split your process states into Ongoing and Done

to track where tasks are spending too much time
waiting to be pulled.
“
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 Stair Steps

120

Work is delivered in
100
batches

Consider implementing a
80
continuous delivery model

60

40

20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

Meaning:
This is a really obvious CFD pattern. One or more of your bands will have a
shape of stair steps. Stair steps are really common in the last state of our
workflow, the release state. This means you're delivering tasks in batches or
cadences, but it can also happen if you are moving a number of tasks to the
next process state at once.

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 Suggestion for improvement:
Stair steps are an indicator of regular cadences if the steps are equal in size. If
the steps are uneven, chances are you are experiencing non-regular batch
transfers.

Large batch deliveries put your system at risk, especially if we're talking about
non-regular deliveries. Releasing work as soon as it is ready makes your future
predictions far more accurate.

When you see stairs steps appear on your CFD, ask yourself how batches are
affecting your system. Could they be reduced? How it will affect your cycle
time? If your business model supports continuous delivery, transferring work in
batches calls for unnecessary delays, risk of rework and late discovery of
quality issues. Start delivering tasks as you complete them to maintain more
predictable system.

Large batch deliveries put your system at risk.

Releasing work as soon as it is ready makes your
future predictions far more accurate.
“
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 Disappearing Bands

120

100 Process state being skipped

Rethink the state's purpose or

80 set up queue states to identify
blockages

60

40

20

0
02 Jun 04 Jun 06 Jun 08 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Jun 16 Jun 18 Jun 20 Jun 22 Jun 24 Jun 26 Jun 28 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul

Meaning:
This is a pattern where a process state isn't visible on your cumulative flow
diagram. Tasks could be skipping a process state in the workflow, or an
upstream blockage is stopping them from getting to this state.

Suggestions for improvement:

Check for process states being skipped – maybe this state has no purpose in
your workflow. Again, it might be useful to set up queue states (Done states) in
order to identify hidden blockages. Splitting process states into Ongoing and
Done will let you see where work is lingering and not being pulled forward.

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 Recap of the Most Common
CFD Patterns

Pattern Meaning Suggestion for improvement

Differences in gradient Mismatched arrivals and departures Strictly enforce WIP limits

Flat lines Periods of no activity Track process bottlenecks

The S-curve Points with little to no progress Find out what's causing workflow fluctuations

Bulging bands Increasing WIP Split process steps into active and passive (queue) states

Stair steps Work is delivered in batches Consider implementing a continuous delivery model

Disappearing bands Process state being skipped Rethink the state's purpose or set up queue states to identify blockages

Keep in mind that you won’t see patterns as clean as our examples. You're
more likely to see an overlapping combination of two or more patterns. Once
you understand what the graph is telling you, it will be clear where to
investigate for improvements and getting down to the root of your bottlenecks
to deliver value to your customers more quickly and predictably.

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