Solution - CH 4,5,6

Chapter 4
Introduction to Probability
Solutions
1. Number of experimental outcomes = (3)(2)(4) = 24
 6  6! 6  5  4  3  2 1
    20
2.  3  3!3! (3  2 1)(3  2 1)
ABC ACE BCD BEF

ABD ACF BCE CDE
ABE ADE BCF CDF
ABF ADF BDE CEF
ACD AEF BDF DEF
6!
P36   (6)(5)(4)  120
3. (6  3)!
BDF BFD DBF DFB FBD FDB
4. a.
1st Toss 2nd Toss 3rd Toss
H (H,H,H)
T
H (H,H,T)
T
H (H,T,H)
H T
(H,T,T)
T H (T,H,H)
T
H (T,H,T)
T
H (T,T,H)
T
(T,T,T)
© 2019 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part.
b. Let: H be head and T be tail:
(H,H,H) (T,H,H)
(H,H,T) (T,H,T)
(H,T,H) (T,T,H)
(H,T,T) (T,T,T)
c. The outcomes are equally likely, so the probability of each outcome is 1/8.
5. P(Ei) = 1/5 for i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
P(Ei) ≥ 0 for i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) + P(E4) + P(E5) = 1/5 + 1/5 + 1/5 + 1/5 + 1/5 = 1
The classical method was used.
6. P(E1) = .40, P(E2) = .26, P(E3) = .34
The relative frequency method was used.
7. No. Requirement (4.4) is not satisfied; the probabilities do not sum to 1.
P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) + P(E4) = .10 + .15 + .40 + .20 = .85
8. a. There are four outcomes possible for this two-step experiment; planning commission
positive—council approves; planning commission positive—council disapproves;
planning commission negative—council approves; and planning commission negative
—council disapproves.
b. Let p = positive, n = negative, a = approves, and d = disapproves
Planning Commission Council
(p, a)
a
d
p
(p, d) .
n
(n, a)
a
(n, d)
 50  50! 50  49  48  47
    230,300
 4  4!46! 4  3  2 1
9.
10. a.
Programmer Total Lines of Code Number of Lines of Code Probability
Written Requiring Edits

Liwei 23,789 4,589 0.1929
Andrew 17,962 2,780 0.1548
Jaime 31,025 12,080 0.3894
Sherae 26,050 3,780 0.1451
Binny 19,586 1,890 0.0965
Roger 24,786 4,005 0.1616
Dong-Gil 24,030 5,785 0.2407
Alex 14,780 1,052 0.0712
Jay 30,875 3,872 0.1254
Vivek 21,546 4,125 0.1915
b. Probability = 4589 / 23789 = 0.1929
c. Probability = 1 – 3780 / 26050 = 1 – 0.1451 = 0.8549
d. The lowest probability is Alex at 0.0712; the highest probability is Jaime at 0.3894.
11. a. P(adult in the Tri-State Region smokes) = 118/(118+492) = 118/610 = .1934
b. P(adult in KY smokes) = 47/223 = .2108
P(adult in IN smokes) = 32/166 = .1928
P(adult in OH smokes) = 39/221 = .1765
For these three states, Ohio has the lowest estimated probability of an adult being a
smoker.
12. Initially a probability of .20 would be assigned if selection is equally likely. Data do not
appear to confirm the belief of equal consumer preference. For example, using the
relative frequency method we would assign a probability of 5/100 = .05 to the design 1
outcome, .15 to design 2, .30 to design 3, .40 to design 4, and .10 to design 5.
13. a. Step 1—Use the counting rule for combinations:
69 ! (69)( 68)(67)(66)(65)
(696 )= 5 ! 69−5 ¿
! ¿=
(5)(4)(3)(2)(1)
=11,238,513
Step 2—There are 26 ways to select the red Powerball from digits 1 to 26.
Total number of Powerball lottery outcomes:
(11,238,513) x (26) = 292,201,338
b. Probability of winning the lottery: 1 chance in 292,201,338
= 1/(292,201,338) = .00000000342
14. a. P(E2) = 1/4
b. P(any 2 outcomes) = 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2
c. P(any 3 outcomes) = 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 = 3/4
15. a. S = {ace of clubs, ace of diamonds, ace of hearts, ace of spades}
b. S = {2 of clubs, 3 of clubs, . . . , 10 of clubs, J of clubs, Q of clubs, K of clubs, A of
clubs}
c. There are 12; jack, queen, or king in each of the four suits.
d. For a: 4/52 = 1/13 = .08
For b: 13/52 = 1/4 = .25
For c: 12/52 = .23
16. a. (6)(6) = 36 sample points
b.
Die 2
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total for Both .
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Die 1
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
c. 6/36 = 1/6
d. 10/36 = 5/18
e. No. P(odd) = 18/36 = P(even) = 18/36 or 1/2 for both.
f. Classical. A probability of 1/36 is assigned to each experimental outcome.
17. a. (4,6), (4,7), (4,8)
b. .05 + .10 + .15 = .30
c. (2,8), (3,8), (4,8)
d. .05 + .05 + .15 = .25
e. .15
18. a. Let C = corporate headquarters located in California:
P(C) = 53/500 = .106
b. Let N = corporate headquarters located in New York
T = corporate headquarters located in Texas
P(N) = 50/500 = .100
P(T) = 52/500 = .104
Located in California, New York, or Texas:
P(C) + P( N ) + P(T ) =.106 + .100 + .104 =.31
c. Let A = corporate headquarters located in one of the eight states
Total number of companies with corporate headquarters in the eight states = 283
P(A) = 283/500 = .566
More than half the Fortune 500 companies have corporate headquartered located in
these eight states.
19. a. Probability = 131/(134 + 131 + 2) = 131/(267) = .4906
b. Probability = (432)/(293 + 432 + 8) = 432/733 = .5894
c. Probability = (134 + 293) /(267 + 733) = 427/1,000 = .427
d. Older respondents appear to be less concerned about global warming being a threat in
their lifetime than are younger respondents.
20. a.
Age
Experimental Outcome Financially Number of Responses Probability
Independent
E1 16 to 20 191 191/944 = 0.2023
E2 21 to 24 467 467/944 = 0.4947
E3 25 to 27 244 244/944 = 0.2585
E4 28 or older 42 42/944 = 0.0445
944
b. P(Age <25) =P(E1 ) + P(E2 ) =.2023 +.4947 =.6970
c. P(Age >24) =P(E3 ) + P(E4 ) =.2585 +.0445 =.3030
d. The probability of being financially independent before age 25, .6970, seems high given
the general economic conditions. The teenagers who responded to this survey may have
had unrealistic expectations about becoming financially independent at a relatively
young age.
1416
21. a. P ( pole , post )= =.1358
10426
896
b. P ( guard rail )= =.0859
10426
c. The fixed object that is least likely to be involved in a fatal collision is a bridge with
231
probability P ( bridge )= =.0222
10426
d. The fixed object that is most likely to be involved in a fatal collision is a shrubbery or
2585
tree with probability P ( shrubbery ,tree )= =.2479
10426
22. a. P(A) = .40, P(B) = .40, P(C) = .60
b. P(A  B) = P(E1, E2, E3, E4) = .80. Yes, P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B).
c. Ac = {E3, E4, E5} Cc = {E1, E4} P(Ac) = .60 P(Cc) = .40
d. A  Bc = {E1, E2, E5} P(A  Bc) = .60
e. P(B  C) = P(E2, E3, E4, E5) = .80
23. a. P(A) = P(E1) + P(E4) + P(E6) = .05 + .25 + .10 = .40
P(B) = P(E2) + P(E4) + P(E7) = .20 + .25 + .05 = .50
P(C) = P(E2) + P(E3) + P(E5) + P(E7) = .20 + .20 + .15 + .05 = .60
b. A  B = {E1, E2, E4, E6, E7}
P(A  B) = P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E4) + P(E6) + P(E7)
= .05 + .20 + .25 + .10 + .05 = .65
c. A  B = {E4} P(A  B) = P(E4) = .25
d. Yes, they are mutually exclusive.
e. Bc = {E1, E3, E5, E6};
P(Bc) = P(E1) + P(E3) + P(E5) + P(E6)
= .05 + .20 + .15 + .10 = .50
24. Let E = experience exceeded expectations
M = experience met expectations
a. Percentage of respondents that said their experience exceeded expectations
= 100 – (4 + 26 + 65) = 5%
P(E) = .05
b. P(M  E) = P(M) + P(E) = .65 + .05 = .70
25. Let F = Uses Facebook
L = Uses LinkedIn
a. P ( F ∪ L )=P ( F ) + P ( L )−P ( F ∩ L )=.68+.25−.22=.71
b. 1−P ( F ∪ L )=1−.71=.29
26. a. Let D = Domestic Equity Fund
P(D) = 16/25 = .64
b. Let A = 4- or 5-star rating
Thirteen funds were rated 3 star or less; thus, 25 – 13 = 12 funds must be 4 star or 5 star.
P(A) = 12/25 = .48
c. Seven Domestic Equity funds were rated 4 star, and two were rated 5 star. Thus, nine
funds were Domestic Equity funds and were rated 4 star or 5 star:
P(D  A) = 9/25 = .36
d. P(D  A) = P(D) + P(A) - P(D  A)
= .64 + .48 - .36 = .76
27. Let A = the event that a randomly selected U.S. adult uses social media
B = the event that a randomly selected U.S. adult is age 18–29
a. P(A) = 1 - .35 = .65
b. P(B) = 1 – .78 = .22
c. The question asks for the probability of A intersected with B.
From the addition law,
P( A  B )  P ( A)  P ( B)  P ( A  B )
so,
P( A  B)  P ( A)  P ( B)  P( A  B )  .65  .22  .672  .198
28. Let: B = rented a car for business reasons
P = rented a car for personal reasons
a. P(B  P) = P(B) + P(P) - P(B  P)
= .54 + .458 - .30 = .698
b. P(Neither) = 1 – .698 = .302
29. a.
1033
 .3623
(E) = 2851
P
854
 .2995
P(R) = 2851
964
 .3381
P(D) = 2851
b. Yes; P(E  D) = 0
1033
 .4349
c. Probability = 2375
d. Let F denote the event that a student who applies for early admission is deferred and
later admitted during the regular admission process.
Events E and F are mutually exclusive and the addition law applies.
P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F)
P(E) = .3623 from part (a)
Of the 964 early applicants who were deferred, we expect 18%, or .18(964) students, to
be admitted during the regular admission process. Thus, for the total of 2,851 early
admission applicants:
.18(964)
 .0609
P(F) = 2851
P(E  F) = P(E) + P(F) = .3623 + .0609 = .4232
Note: .18(964) = 173.52. Some students may round this to 174 students. If rounding is
done, the answer becomes .4233. Either approach is acceptable.
P (A  B) .40
P (A B)    .6667
P (B) .60
30. a.
P(A  B) .40
P(B A)    .80
P (A) .50
b.
c. No because P(A | B)  P(A)
31. a. P(A  B) = 0
P(A  B) 0
P(A B)   0
P(B) .4
b.
c. No. P(A | B) ≠ P(A);  the events, although mutually exclusive, are not independent.
d. Mutually exclusive events are dependent.
32. a. Dividing each entry in the table by 500 yields the following (rounding to two digits):
Yes No Totals
Men 0.210 0.282 0.492
Women 0.186 0.322 0.508
Totals 0.396 0.604 1.000
Let M = 18-34-year-old man,
W = 18-34-year-old woman,
Y = responded yes,
N = responded no
b. P(M) = .492, P(W) = .508
P(Y) = .396, P(N) = .604
c. P(Y|M) = .210/.492 = .4268
d. P(Y|W) = .186/.508 = .3661
e. P(Y) = .396/1 = .396
f. P(M) = .492 in the sample. Yes, this seems like a good representative sample based on
gender.
33. a.
Undergraduate Major
Business Engineering Other Totals
Intended Enrollment Status Full-Time 0.270 0.151 0.192 0.613
Part-Time 0.115 0.123 0.149 0.387
Totals 0.385 0.274 0.341 1.000
b. P(Business) = 0.385, P(Engineering) = 0.274, and P(Other) = 0.341, so Business is the
undergraduate major that produces the most potential MBA students.
P  Engineering  Full - Time  0.151

P  Engineering | Full - Time  =   0.246
P  Full - Time  0.613
c.
P  Full - Time  Business  0.270

P  Full - Time | Business  =   0.701
P  Business  0.385
d.
e. Let A denote the event that student intends to attend classes full time in pursuit of an
MBA degree, and let B denote the event that the student was an undergraduate Business
major. Are events A and B independent? Justify your answer.
For independence, we must have that    

P A P B  P  A  B
; from the joint
probability table in part (a) of this problem, we have
P(A) = 0.613
P(B) = 0.385
So
P ( A ) P ( B )=( .613 ) (.385)=.236
But
P  A  B   0.270
Because P  A  P  B   P  A  B  , the events are not independent.
34. a. Let O = flight arrives on time
L = flight arrives late
J = Jet Blue flight
N = United flight
U = US Airways flight
Given:
P(O | J) = .768 P(O | N) = .715 P(O | U) = .822
P(J) = .30 P(N) = .32 P(U) = .38
Joint probabilities using the multiplication law
P(J Ç O) =P(J )P(O | J ) =(.30)(.768) =.2304
P(N Ç O) =P(N )P(O | N ) =(.32)(.715) =.2288
P(U Ç O) =P(U )P(O |U ) =(.38)(.822) =.3124
With the marginal probabilities P(J) = .30, P(N) = .32, and P(U) = .38 given, the joint
probability table can then be shown as follows.
On Time Late Total

Jet Blue .2304 .0696 .30
United .2288 .0912 .32
US Airways .3124 .0676 .38
Total .7716 .2284 1.00
b. Using the joint probability table, the probability of an on-time flight is the marginal
probability
P(O) = .2304 + .2288 + .3124 = .7716
c. Because US Airways has the highest percentage of flights into terminal C, US Airways
with P(U) = .38 is the most likely airline for Flight 1382.
d. From the joint probability table, P(L) = .2284:
P(J Ç L) .0696
P(J L) = = =.3047
P(L) .2284
P(N Ç L) .0912
P(N L) = = =.3992
P(L) .2284
P(U Ç L) .0676
P(U L) = = =.2961
P(L) .2284
Most likely airline for Flight 1382 is now United with a probability of .3992. US
Airways is now the least likely airline for this flight with a probability of .2961.
35. a. The total sample size is 1,010. Dividing each entry by 1,010 provides the following
joint probability table.
I Am My Spouse We Are Equal

Husband .2752 .1257 .1010 .5020
Wife .2871 .1099 .1010 .4980
.5624 .2356 .2020
Let I = I am
S = My spouse
E = We are equal
H = Husband
W = Wife
b. Using the marginal probabilities, P(I) = .5642, P(S) = .2356 and P(E) = .2020. “I am” is
the most likely response. It is over twice as likely as either “My spouse” or “We are
equal.”
P( I  H ) .2752
P(I H )    .5483
P(H ) .5020
c.
P ( I  W ) .2871
P(I W )    .5765
P (W ) .4980
d.
P( H  S ) .1257
P(H S )    .5336
P (S ) .2356
e.
P ( H  E ) .1010
P(H E )    .5
P (E) .2020
f.
P (W  E ) .1010
P(W E )    .5
P(E) .2020
36. a. We have that P(Make the Shot) = .93 for each foul shot, so the probability that the
player will make two consecutive foul shots is that P(Make the Shot) P(Make the
Shot) = (.93)(.93) = .8649.
b. There are three unique ways in which the player can make at least one shot: He can
make the first shot and miss the second shot, miss the first shot and make the second
shot, or make both shots. Because the event “Miss the Shot” is the complement of the
event “Make the Shot,” P(Miss the Shot) = 1 – P(Make the Shot) = 1 – .93 = .07. Thus:
P(Make the Shot) P(Miss the Shot) = (.93)(.07) = .0651
P(Miss the Shot) P(Make the Shot) = (.07)(.93) = .0651
P(Make the Shot) P(Make the Shot) = (.93)(.93) = .8649
.9951
c. We can find this probability in two ways. We can calculate the probability directly:
P(Miss the Shot) P(Miss the Shot) = (.07)(.07) = .0049
Or we can recognize that the event “Miss both Shots” is the complement of the event
“Make at Least One of the Two Shots,” so
P(Miss the Shot) P(Miss the Shot) = 1 – .9951 = .0049
d. For the player who makes 58% of his free throws, we have:
P(Make the Shot) = .58 for each foul shot,
so the probability that this player will make two consecutive foul shots is
P(Make the Shot) P(Make the Shot) = (.58)(.58) = .3364.
Again, there are three unique ways that this player can make at least one shot: He can
make the first shot and miss the second shot, miss the first shot and make the second
shot, or make both shots. Because the event “Miss the Shot” is the complement of the
event “Make the Shot” P(Miss the Shot) = 1 – P(Make the Shot) = 1 – .58 = .42. Thus,
P(Make the Shot) P(Miss the Shot) = (.58)(.42) = .2436
P(Miss the Shot) P(Make the Shot) = (.42)(.58) = .2436
P(Make the Shot) P(Make the Shot) = (.58)(.58) = .3364
.8236
We can again find the probability the 58% free-throw shooter will miss both shots in
two ways. We can calculate the probability directly:
P(Miss the Shot) P(Miss the Shot) = (.42)(.42) = .1764
Or we can recognize that the event “Miss Both Shots” is the complement of the event
“Make at Least One of the Two Shots,” so
P(Miss the Shot) P(Miss the Shot) = 1 – .9951 = .1764
Intentionally fouling the 58% free-throw shooter is a better strategy than intentionally
fouling the 93% shooter.
37. Let C = person could give up cell phone
T = person could give up television
a. P ( C ) =.48
P(T ∩C) .31

b. P ( T|C )= = =.65
P( C) .48
C P(T ∩ CC ) .38
( |
c. P T C =) C
= =.73 (Note: C C is the complement of C, or in other words,
P(C ) .52
person could not give up cell phone.)
d. The probability a person could give up television if they could not give up a cell phone
is higher than the probability a person could give up television if they could up a cell
phone.
38. Let Y = has a college degree
N = does not have a college degree
D = a delinquent student loan
a. From the table, P(Y ) =.42
b. From the table, P(N ) =.58
P(D Ç Y ) .16
P(D | Y ) = = =.3810
c. P(Y ) .42
P(D Ç N ) .34
P(D | N ) = = =.5862
d. P(N ) .58
e. Individuals who obtained a college degree have a .3810 probability of a delinquent
student loan, whereas individuals who dropped out without obtaining a college degree
have a .5862 probability of a delinquent student loan. Not obtaining a college degree
will lead to a greater probability of struggling to payback the student loan and will
likely lead to financial problems in the future.
39. a. Yes, because P(A1  A2) = 0
b. P(A1  B) = P(A1)P(B | A1) = .40(.20) = .08
P(A2  B) = P(A2)P(B | A2) = .60(.05) = .03
c. P(B) = P(A1  B) + P(A2  B) = .08 + .03 = .11
.08
P(A1 B)   .7273
d. .11
.03
P(A 2 B)   .2727
.11
40. a. P(B  A1) = P(A1)P(B | A1) = (.20)(.50) = .10
P(B  A2) = P(A2)P(B | A2) = (.50)(.40) = .20
P(B  A3) = P(A3)P(B | A3) = (.30)(.30) = .09
.20
P(A 2 B)   .51
b. .10  .20  .09
c.
Events P(Ai) P(B | Ai) P(Ai  B) P(Ai | B)

A1 .20 .50 .10 .26
A2 .50 .40 .20 .51
A3 .30 .30 .09 .23
1.00 .39 1.00
41. S1 = successful, S2 = not successful, and B = request received for additional information.
a. P(S1) = .50
b. P(B | S1) = .75
(.50)(.75) .375
P(S1 B)    .65
(.50)(.75)  (.50)(.40) .575
c.
42. M = missed payment
D1 = customer defaults
D2 = customer does not default
P(D1) = .05 P(D2) = .95 P(M | D2) = .2 P(M | D1) = 1
P(D1 ) P(M D1 ) (.05)(1) .05

P(D1 M)     .21
P(D1 ) P(M D1 )  P(D 2 ) P(M D 2 ) (.05)(1)  (.95)(.2) .24
a.
b. Yes, the probability of default is greater than .20.
43. Let C = event male patient has prostate cancer
+ = positive PSA test for prostate cancer
– = negative PSA test for prostate cancer
P ( C ) =.02 P ( +¿ CC ) =.75 P (−¿ C ) =.20
a. We are interested in finding P ¿. According to Bayes’ rule:
P¿
b. We are interested in finding P ¿. According to Bayes’ rule:
P¿
c. Here we repeat the calculations from parts a and b, but now P ( C ) =.40. We are
interested in finding P ¿ and P ¿. According to Bayes’ rule:
P ¿P ¿
d. The probability of having prostate cancer when the PSA test is positive in part a is only .
0213. The difference between P ¿ and P ¿ in parts a and b is relatively small. The
probability of having prostate cancer when the PSA test is positive is .0213 compared to
.0161 when the PSA test is negative. When the prior probability increases in part c, P ¿
increases to .4156, but P ¿ is also relatively high at .3478. Results similar to these are
why the guidelines for when males are tested for prostate cancer and how they are
treated if they test positive have changed in recent years.
44. M = the current visitor to the ParFore website is a male
F = the current visitor to the ParFore website is a female
D = a visitor to the ParFore website previously visited the Dillard website
a. Using past history, P(F) = .40.
b. P(M) = .60, P(D |F ) =.30 , and P(D | M ) =.10
P(F )P( D | F ) (.40)(.30)

P(F | D) = = =.6667
P(F )P(D | F ) + P( M )P( D | M ) (.40)(.30) + (.60)(.10)
The revised probability that the current visitor is a female is .6667.
ParFore should display the special offer that appeals to female visitors.
45. Let A1 = American under 18
A2 = American age 18 to 64
A3 = American age 65 or older
U = Uninsured
a. a . P ( A 3 )=1−P ( A 1 )−P ( A2 ) =1−.228−.614=.158
b.
P( A 3 ) P(U ∨A 3 ) .158× .011

b . P ( A 3|U ¿= =
P ( A 1 ) P ( U | A 1) + P ( A 2 ) P ( U | A 2) + P ( A 3 ) P(U ∨A 3 ) .228 ×.051+.614 × .124+.158 ×.011
The probability that a randomly selected person in the United States is older than 65 is .
158. But if it is known that the person is uninsured, the probability of that person being
older than 65 falls to .019 because most people 65 and older have health insurance.
46. a. 422 + 181 + 80 + 121 + 201 = 1005 respondents
b. Most frequent response a day or less; probability = 422/1005 = .4199
c. 201/1005 = .20
d. Responses of two days, three days, and four or more days = 181 + 80 + 121 = 382
Probability = 382/1005 = .3801
47. a. (2)(2) = 4
b. Let S = successful
U = unsuccessful
Oi Bond
l s E1
S
U
S
E2
U
S E3
U
E4
c. O = {E1, E2}
M = {E1, E3}
d. O  M = {E1, E2, E3}
e. O  M = {E1}
f. No, because O  M has a sample point.
48. a. 0.5029
b. 0.5758
c. No, from part a we have P(F) = 0.5029, and from part b we have P(A|F) = 0.5758.
Because P(F) ≠ P(A|F), events A and F are not independent.
49. Let I = treatment-caused injury
D = death from injury
N = injury caused by negligence
M = malpractice claim filed
$ = payment made in claim
We are given
P(I) = 0.04,
P(N | I) = 0.25,
P(D | I) = 1/7,
P(M | N) = 1/7.5 = 0.1333,
and
P($ | M) = 0.50
a. P(N) = P(N | I) P(I) + P(N | Ic) P(Ic)
= (0.25)(0.04) + (0)(0.96) = 0.01
b. P(D) = P(D | I) P(I) + P(D | Ic) P(Ic)
= (1/7)(0.04) + (0)(0.96) = 0.006
c. P(M) = P(M | N) P(N) + P(M | Nc) P(Nc)
= (0.1333)(0.01) + (0)(0.99) = 0.001333
P($) = P($ | M) P(M) + P($ | Mc) P(Mc)
= (0.5)(0.001333) + (0)(0.9987) = 0.00067
50. a. Probability of the event = P(average) + P(above average) + P(excellent)
11 14 13
 
= 50 50 50 = .22 + .28 + .26 = .76
b. Probability of the event = P(poor) + P(below average)
4 8
 .24
= 50 50
51. a.
Household Income
Level of Education Under $25,000 $25,000 to $49,999 $50,000 to $99,999 $100,000 and over Total
High School graduate 0.1505 0.1519 0.1438 0.0530 0.4993
Bachelor's degree 0.0378 0.0634 0.1168 0.1191 0.3371
Master's degree 0.0104 0.0184 0.0460 0.0624 0.1371
Doctoral degree 0.0012 0.0024 0.0064 0.0164 0.0265
Total 0.2000 0.2361 0.3130 0.2509 1.0000
b. This is the sum of two marginal probabilities.
P(master's degree or more education) = .1371 + .0265 = .1636
c. This is a conditional probability.
P (100 or More  HS) .0530

P (100 or More HS)    .1061
P (HS) .4993
d. This is a marginal probability.
P(Under 25) = .2000
e. This is a conditional probability.
P (Under 25  BD) .0378

P (Under 25 BD)    .1121
P (BD) .3371
f. No. P(100 or More HS)  .1061 is not equal to P(100 or More) = .2508.
Household income is not independent of education level. Individuals with a high school
degree have a lower probability of having a higher household income.
52. a.
Yes No Total
23 and Under .1026 .0996 .2022
24 - 26 .1482 .1878 .3360
27 - 30 .0917 .1328 .2245
31 - 35 .0327 .0956 .1283
36 and Over .0253 .0837 .1090
Total .4005 .5995 1.0000 .
b. .2022
c. .2245 + .1283 + .1090 = .4618
d. .4005
53. a. P(24 to 26 | Yes) = .1482/.4005 = .3700
b. P(Yes | 36 and over) = .0253/.1090 = .2321
c. .1026 + .1482 + .1878 + .0917 + .0327 + .0253 = .5883
d. P(31 or more | No) = (.0956 + .0837)/.5995 = .2991
e. No, because the conditional probabilities do not all equal the marginal probabilities. For
instance,
P(24 to 26 | Yes) = .3700 
P(24 to 26) = .3360
54. a. .1485+.2273+.4008 = .7766
P(OKAY  30  49) 0.0907

P(OKAY 30  49)    0.2852
b. P(30  49) 0.3180
c. P ( 50+¿ NOT OKAY )=P ¿ ¿
d. The attitude about this practice is not independent of the age of the respondent. We can
show this in several ways. One example is to use the result from part (b). We have
P  OKAY 30  49   0.2852
and
P  OKAY   0.2234
If the attitude about this practice were independent of the age of the respondent, we
would expect these probabilities to be equal. Because these probabilities are not equal,
the data suggest the attitude about this practice is not independent of the age of the
respondent.
e. Respondents in the 50+ age category are far more likely to say this practice is not okay
than are respondents in the 18–29 age category:
P  NOT OKAY  50   0.4008

P  NOT OKAY|50+     0.8472
P  50+  0.4731
P  NOT OKAY  18-29  0.1485

P  NOT OKAY|18-29     0.7109
P  18-29  0.2089
P(B  S ) .12
P (B S)    .30
P (S) .40
55. a.
We have P(B | S) > P(B).
Yes, continue the ad because it increases the probability of a purchase.
b. Estimate the company’s market share at 20%. Continuing the advertisement should
increase the market share because P(B | S) = .30.
P(B  S ) .10
P(B S)    .333
P(S) .30
c.
The second ad has a bigger effect.
56. a. P(A) = 200/800 = .25
b. P(B) = 100/800 = .125
c. P(A  B) = 10/800 = .0125
d. P(A | B) = P(A  B)/P(B) = .0125/.125 = .10
e. No, P(A | B) ≠ P(A) = .25
57. Let A = lost time accident in current year
B = lost time accident previous year
Given:
P(B) = .06, P(A) = .05, P(A | B) = .15
a. P(A  B) = P(A | B)P(B) = .15(.06) = .009
b. P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A  B) = .06 + .05 - .009 = .101 or 10.1%
58. a. Let A1 = student studied abroad
A2
= student did not study abroad
F = female student
M = male student
P(A1) = .095
P(A2) = 1- P( A1 ) = 1 - .095 = .905
P(F | A1) = .60
P(F | A2) = .49
Tabular computations
Event P(Ai) P(F|Ai) P(Ai∩F) P(Ai|F)
s
A1 .095 .60 .0570 .1139
A2 .905 .49 .4435 .8861
P(F) = .5005
P(A1|F) = .1139
b.
Events P(Ai) P(M|Ai) P(Ai∩M) P(Ai|M)

A1 .095 .40 .0380 .0761
A2 .905 .51 .4615 .9239
P(M) = .4995
P(A1|M) = .0761
c. From the preceding, P(F) = .5005 and P(M) = .4995, so almost 50:50 female and male
full-time students.
59. a. P(Oil) = .50 + .20 = .70
b. Let S = Soil test results
Events P(Ai) P(S | Ai) P(Ai  S) P(Ai | S)

High quality (A1) .50 .20 .10 .31
Medium quality (A2) .20 .80 .16 .50
No oil (A3) .30 .20 .06 .19
1.00 P(S) = .32 1.00
P(Oil) = .81
which is good. Probabilities, however, now favor medium quality rather than high
quality oil.
60. a.
P  spam  P  shipping!|spam 
P  spam|shipping!  
P  spam  P  shipping!|spam   P  ham  P  shipping!|ham 
 0.10   0.051
  0.791
 0.10   0.051   0.90   0.0015 
P  ham  P  shipping!|ham 
P  ham|shipping!  
P  ham  P  shipping!|ham   P  spam  P  shipping!|ham 
 0.90   0.0015 
  0.209
 0.90   0.0015    0.10   0.051
If a message includes the word shipping!, the probability the message is spam is high
(.7910), so the message should be flagged as spam.
b.
P  spam  P  today!|spam 
P  spam|today!  
P  spam  P  today!|spam   P  ham  P  today!|ham 
 0.10   0.045 
  0.694
 0.10   0.045    0.90   0.0022 
P  spam  P  here!|spam 
P  spam|here!  
P  spam  P  here!|spam   P  ham  P  here!|ham 
 0.10   0.034 
  0.632
 0.10   0.034    0.90   0.0022 
A message that includes the word today! is more likely to be spam. P(spam|today!) is
higher than P(spam|here!) because P(today!|spam) is larger than P(here!|spam) and
P(today!|ham) = P(here!|ham) meaning that today! occurs more often in unwanted
messages (spam) than here!, and just as often in legitimate messages (ham). Therefore,
it is easier to distinguish spam from ham in messages that include today!.
c.
P  spam  P  available|spam 
P  spam|available  
P  spam  P  available|spam   P  ham  P  available|ham 
 0.10   0.014 
  0.275
 0.10   0.014    0.90   0.0041
P  spam  P  fingertips!|spam 
P  spam|fingertips!  
P  spam  P  fingertips!|spam   P  ham  P  fingertips!|ham 
 0.10   0.014 
  0.586
 0.10   0.014    0.90   0.0011
A message that includes the word fingertips! is more likely to be spam. P(spam|
fingertips!) is larger than P(spam|available) because P(available|ham) is larger than
P(fingertips!|ham) and P(available|spam) = P(fingertips!|spam) meaning that available
occurs more often in legitimate messages (ham) than fingertips! and just as often in
unwanted messages (spam). Therefore, it is more difficult to distinguish spam from ham
in messages that include available.
d. It is easier to distinguish spam from ham when a word occurs more often in unwanted
messages (spam), less often in legitimate messages (ham), or both.
Case Solutions
Case Problem 1 Hamilton County Judges
The data in the table provide the basis for the analysis. We provide notes as a guide to answering
questions 1 through 5.
1. The conditional probabilities of cases being appealed in the three courts are given in the
three Total rows in the table. For Common Pleas Court, the probability of an appeal is .
0401; for Domestic Relations Court, the probability of an appeal is .00348; and for
Municipal Court, the probability of an appeal is .00461. Appeals are much more likely in
Common Pleas Court, but even there only 1 in 25 cases is appealed. The unconditional
probability of an appeal across all three courts is
(1762 + 106 + 500)/(43,945 + 30,499 + 108,464) = .0129
2. The probability of a case being appealed for each judge is given in column 5 of the table.
Judges Winkler, Panioto, and Grady have the lowest probability of appeal for Common
Pleas, Domestic Relations, and Municipal Courts, respectively.
3. The probability of a case being reversed for each judge is given in column 7 of the table.
Judges Winkler, Panioto, and Grady and Hair have the lowest probability of reversal for
Common Pleas, Domestic Relations, and Municipal Courts, respectively. These are the
probabilities for reversal for all cases disposed of, not just the ones appealed.
4. The probability of a reversal given an appeal for each judge is given in column 9 of the
table. Judges Nurre, Panioto, and Grady and Hair have the lowest probability of reversal
for Common Pleas, Domestic Relations, and Municipal Courts, respectively.
5. We describe here how the Cincinnati Enquirer used these data to rank the judges. Other
approaches may also be valid, but a rationale should be provided. The newspaper
provided rankings for each judge within each court on percentage of cases appealed,
percentage of cases reversed, and percentage of appealed cases reversed. Those rankings
were the same as those we have computed based on probabilities in columns 6, 8, and 10
of the table. Then they summed the three rankings to come up with a total ranking for
each judge. We provide those total ranks in column 11 of the table. Judge Winkler is the
highest ranked judge in Common Pleas Court, Judge Panioto is the highest ranked judge
in Domestic Relations Court, and Judge Grady is the highest ranked judge in Municipal
Court.
Common Pleas Court

Total Cases Disposed
Appealed Cases
Reversed Cases
Reversal Given
Sum of Ranks
Probability of
Probability of
Probability of
Conditional
Reversal
Appeal
Appeal
Rank
Rank
Rank
Judge
Fred Cartolano 3037 137 12 0.04511 14 0.00395 6 0.08759 5 25
Thomas Crush 3372 119 10 0.03529 4 0.00297 4 0.08403 4 12
Patrick Dinkelacker 1258 44 8 0.03498 3 0.00636 12 0.18182 14 29
Timothy Hogan 1954 60 7 0.03071 2 0.00358 5 0.11667 9 16
Robert Kraft 3138 127 7 0.04047 10 0.00223 3 0.05512 2 15
William Mathews 2264 91 18 0.04019 7 0.00795 15 0.19780 16 38
William Morrissey 3032 121 22 0.03991 6 0.00726 14 0.18182 14 34
Norbert Nadel 2959 131 20 0.04427 13 0.00676 13 0.15267 12 38
Arthur Ney, Jr. 3219 125 14 0.03883 5 0.00435 9 0.11200 8 22
Richard Niehaus 3353 137 16 0.04086 11 0.00477 10 0.11679 10 31
Thomas Nurre 3000 121 6 0.04033 8 0.00200 2 0.04959 1 11
John O'Connor 2969 129 12 0.04345 12 0.00404 7 0.09302 6 25
Robert Ruehlman 3205 145 18 0.04524 15 0.00562 11 0.12414 11 37
J. Howard Sundermann Jr. 955 60 10 0.06283 16 0.01047 16 0.16667 13 45
Ann Marie Tracey 3141 127 13 0.04043 9 0.00414 8 0.10236 7 24
Ralph Winkler 3089 88 6 0.02849 1 0.00194 1 0.06818 3 5
Total 43945 1762 199 0.0401 0.00453 0.11294
Domestic Relations Court
Appealed Cases
Reversed Cases
Reversal Given
Sum of Ranks
Probability of
Probability of
Probability of
Conditional
Reversal
Appeal
Appeal
Rank
Rank
Rank
Judge
Penelope Cunningham 2729 7 1 0.00257 2 0.00037 2 0.14286 2 6
Patrick Dinkelacker 6001 19 4 0.00317 3 0.00067 3 0.21053 4 10
Deborah Gaines 8799 48 9 0.00546 4 0.00102 4 0.18750 3 11
Ronald Panioto 12970 32 3 0.00247 1 0.00023 1 0.09375 1 3
Total 30499 106 17 0.00348 0.00056 0.16038
Municipal Court
Appealed Cases
Reversed Cases
Reversal Given
Sum of Ranks
Probability of
Probability of
Probability of
Conditional
Reversal
Appeal
Appeal
Rank
Rank
Rank
Judge
Mike Allen 6149 43 4 0.00699 20 0.00065 7 0.09302 4 31
Nadine Allen 7812 34 6 0.00435 9 0.00077 11 0.17647 10 30
Timothy Black 7954 41 6 0.00515 12 0.00075 10 0.14634 6 28
David Davis 7736 43 5 0.00556 15 0.00065 6 0.11628 5 26
Leslie Isaiah Gaines 5282 35 13 0.00663 19 0.00246 20 0.37143 18 57
Karla Grady 5253 6 0 0.00114 1 0.00000 1 0.00000 1 3
Deidra Hair 2532 5 0 0.00197 3 0.00000 1 0.00000 1 5
Dennis Helmick 7900 29 5 0.00367 6 0.00063 5 0.17241 9 20
Timothy Hogan 2308 13 2 0.00563 17 0.00087 13 0.15385 7 37
James Patrick Kenney 2798 6 1 0.00214 4 0.00036 4 0.16667 8 16
Joseph Luebbers 4698 25 8 0.00532 14 0.00170 18 0.32000 16 48
William Mallory 8277 38 9 0.00459 11 0.00109 14 0.23684 14 39
Melba Marsh 8219 34 7 0.00414 8 0.00085 12 0.20588 13 33
Beth Mattingly 2971 13 1 0.00438 10 0.00034 3 0.07692 3 16
Albert Mestemaker 4975 28 9 0.00563 16 0.00181 19 0.32143 17 52
Mark Painter 2239 7 3 0.00313 5 0.00134 16 0.42857 19 40
Jack Rosen 7790 41 13 0.00526 13 0.00167 17 0.31707 15 45
Mark Schweikert 5403 33 6 0.00611 18 0.00111 15 0.18182 11 44
David Stockdale 5371 22 4 0.00410 7 0.00074 9 0.18182 11 27
John A. West 2797 4 2 0.00143 2 0.00072 8 0.50000 20 30
Total 108464 500 104 0.00461 0.00096 0.20800
Case Problem 2 Rob’s Market
There are 278/1,000 records with no purchase, so the probability = .278.
We have the following table based on bread and jelly.
Column Labels
Count of Jelly Row Labels Grape None Strawberry Grand Total
None 32 325 18 375
Wheat 10 132 22 164
White 306 117 38 461
Grand Total 348 574 78 1000
Therefore,
P(white bread) = 461/1,000 = .461
P(wheat bread)= 164/1,000 = .164
P(grape | white bread) = 306/461 = .664
P(strawberry | white bread) = 38/461 = .082
We have the following table based on bread and peanut butter.
Column Labels
Count of Peanut Butter Row Labels Creamy Natural None Grand Total
None 25 31 319 375
Wheat 17 16 131 164
White 186 54 221 461
Grand Total 228 101 671 1000
P(creamy | white bread) = 186/461 = .403
P(natural | white bread) = 54/461 = .117
P(creamy | wheat bread) = 17/164 = .104
P(natural | wheat bread) = 16/164 = .098
Of the 1000 records, 372 are white-grape-creamy, so that the probability of this purchase
is .372.
Summary There is a .278 chance that a random customer purchases none of these three
product types. So the probability that a customer purchased at least one of these three
types of products is 1 – .278 = .722. Also, only 188/1000 = .188, or 18.8%, have
purchased all three products (bread, jelly, and peanut butter). Therefore, there does seem
to be an opportunity to use coupons and other marketing efforts to encourage consumers
who have purchased at least one but not all three of the products to purchase the
product(s) they are not currently purchasing.
The probability of white–grape–creamy is relatively high (.372), so encouraging
customers who have purchased one or two of these products to purchase the other(s)
appears to be a promising strategy. Note, too, that customers who do not purchase bread
or who purchase wheat bread tend not to purchase peanut butter or jelly (see low counts
for each table in the wheat and none rows). If Mr. White believes RM can change the
behavior of these customers, then they may represent an opportunity for increased sales
of jelly or peanut butter or both. If Mr. White believes these customers’ tastes for and
attitudes toward jelly or peanut butter are entrenched, then promotional activities for jelly
or peanut butter or both toward this consumer segment will likely be fruitless.
Ch 5
31. a.
S
S F
F
S
 2 2!
f (1)    (.4)1 (.6)1  (.4)(.6)  .48
b. 1 1!1!
 2 2!
f (0)    (.4)0 (.6) 2  (1)(.36)  .36
c. 0 0!2!
2 2!
f (2)    (.4) 2 (.6) 0  (.16)(1)  .16
d. 2 2!0!
e. P(x  1) = f(1) + f(2) = .48 + .16 = .64
f. E(x) = n p = 2 (.4) = .8
Var(x) = n p (1 – p) = 2 (.4) (.6) = .48
= .48 = .6928
32. a. f(0) = .3487
b. f(2) = .1937
c. P(x ≤ 2) = f(0) + f(1) + f(2) = .3487 + .3874 + .1937 = .9298
d. P(x ≥ 1) = 1 – f(0) = 1 – .3487 = .6513
e. E(x) = n p = 10 (.1) = 1
f. Var(x) = n p (1 – p) = 10 (.1) (.9) = .9
= .9 = .95
33. a. f(12) = .1144
b. f(16) = .1304
c. P(x ≥ 16) = f(16) + f(17) + f(18) + f(19) + f(20)
= .1304 + .0716 + .0278 + .0068 + .0008 = .2374
d. P(x ≤ 15) = 1 – P (x  16) = 1 – .2374 = .7626
e. E(x) = n p = 20(.7) = 14
f. Var(x) = n p (1 – p) = 20 (.7) (.3) = 4.2
= 4.2 = 2.0494
34. a. Yes. Because the teenagers are selected randomly, p is the same from trial to trial and
the trials are independent. The two outcomes per trial are use Pandora Media Inc.’s
online radio service or do not use Pandora Media Inc.’s online radio service.
Binomial n = 10 and p = .35
10!
f ( x)  (.35) x (1  .35)10 x
x !(10  x )!
10!
f (0)  (.35) 0 (.65)100  .0135
b. 0!(10  0)!
10!
f (4)  (.35)4 (.65)10 4  .2377
c. 4!(10  4)!
d. Probability (x > 2) = 1 – f(0) – f(1)
From part b, f(0) = .0135
10!
f (1)  (.35)1 (.65)101  .0725
1!(10  1)!
Probability (x > 2) = 1 – f(0) – f(1) = 1 – (.0135+ .0725) = .9140
35. a. Binomial n = 10 and p = .40
10!
f ( x)  (.40) x (1  .40)10 x
x !(10  x )!
10!
f (0)  (.40) 0 (.60)100  .0060
0!(10  0)!
10!
f (1)  (.40)1 (.60)101  .0403
b. 1!(10  1)!
c. Probability (x > 2) = 1 – f(0) – f(1)
Using the results from parts a and b:
Probability (x > 2) = 1 – f(0) – f(1) = 1 – (.0060 + .0403) = .9537
d. Probability more than half = f(6) – f(7) + f(8) + f(9) + f(10)
Using the binomial probability table:
Probability more than half = .1115 + .0425 + .0106 + .0016 + .0001 = .1663
36. a. Probability of a defective part being produced must be .03 for each part selected; parts
must be selected independently.
b. Let: D = defective
G = not defective
Experimental Number
1st part 2nd part Outcome Defective
D (D, D) 2
D G
(D, G) 1 .
G
D (G, D) 1
G
(G, G) 0
c. Two outcomes result in exactly one defect.
d. P(no defects) = (.97) (.97) = .9409
P (1 defect) = 2 (.03) (.97) = .0582
P (2 defects) = (.03) (.03) = .0009
37. a. Yes. Because the adults are selected randomly, p is the same from trial to trial and the
trials are independent. The two outcomes per trial are “save nothing for retirement” and
“save something for retirement.”
Binomial n=15 and p = .20
15!
f ( x )= ( .20 ) x ( 1−.20 )15− x
x ! ( 15−x ) !
15!
b. f ( 15 )= ( .20 )15 (1−.20 )15−15=.0000000000328
15 ! ( 15−15 ) !
15!
c. f ( 5 )= ( .20 )5 ( 1−.20 )15−5=.1032
5 ! ( 15−5 ) !
d. f ( x  1)  1  f (0)  1  .0352  .9648
38. a. .90
b. P(at least 1) = f(1) + f(2)
2!
f (1)  (.9)1 (.1)1
1! 1!
 2(.9)(.1)  .18
2!
f (2)  (.9) 2 (.1) 0
2! 0!
 1(.81)(1)  .81
 P(at least 1) = .18 + .81 = .99
Alternatively
P(at least 1) = 1 – f(0)
2!
f (0)  (.9)0 (.1) 2  .01
0! 2!
Therefore, P(at least 1) = 1 – .01 = .99.
c. P(at least 1) = 1 – f(0)
3!
f (0)  (.9) 0 (.1)3  .001
0! 3!
Therefore, P(at least 1) = 1 – .001 = .999.
d. Yes; P(at least 1) becomes very close to 1 with multiple systems, and the inability to
detect an attack would be catastrophic.
39. a. Binomial n=20 and p = .2037
20!
f ( x)  (.2037) x (1  .2037)10  x
x !(20  x )!
20!
f (8)  (.2037)8 (1  .2037)10 8  .0243
8!(20  8)!
b. f ( x  3) 1  f (0)  f (1)  f (2)
20!
f (0)  (.2037) 0 (1  .2037) 20  0  .0105
0!(20  0)!
20!
f (1)  (.2037)1 (1  .2037) 20 1  .0538
1!(20  1)!
20!
f (2)  (.2037) 2 (1  .2037) 20  2  .1307
2!(20  2)!
f ( x  3) 1  f (0)  f (1)  f (2)  1  .0105  .0538  .1307  .8051
c. E ( x)  np  20(.2037)  4.0740
d. Var ( x )  np (1  p )  20(.2037)(1  .2037)  3.2441
  Var ( x)  3.2441  1.8011
40. a. Yes. Because the 18- to 34-year-olds living with their parents are selected randomly, p
is the same from trial to trial and the trials are independent. The two outcomes per trial
either do or do not contribute to household expenses.
Binomial n = 15 and p = .75
15!
f ( x)  (.75) x (1  .75)15 x
x !(15  x )!
b. The probability that none of the 15 contribute to household expenses is
15!
f (0)  (.75)0 (1  .75)150  .0000
0!(15  0)!
Obtaining a sample result that shows that none of the 15 contributed to household
expenses is so unlikely you would have to question whether the 75% value reported by
the Pew Research Center is accurate.
c. Probability of at least 10 = f(10) + f(11) + f(12) + f(13) + f(14) + f(15).
Using binomial tables:
Probability = .1651 + .2252 + .2252 + .1559 + .0668 + .0134 = .8516
41. a. f(0) + f(1) + f(2) = .0115 + .0576 + .1369 = .2060
b. f(4) = .2182
c. 1 – [ f(0) + f(1) + f(2) + f(3) ] = 1 – .2060 – .2054 = .5886
d. μ = n p = 20 (.20) = 4
20!
f (4)  (.30)4 (.70)204  .1304
42. a. 4!(20  4)!
b. Probability (x > 2) = 1 – f(0) – f(1)
20!
f (0)  (.30) 0 (.70) 200  .0008
0!(20  0)!
20!
f (1)  (.30)1 (.70) 201  .0068
1!(20  1)!
Probability (x > 2) = 1 – f(0) – f(1) = 1 – (.0008+ .0068) = .9924
c. E(x) = n p = 20(.30) = 6
d. Var(x) = n p (1 – p) = 20(.30)(1 ̶ .30) = 4.2
= 4.2 = 2.0499
43. a. E ( x )=np=50 ( .4 )=20
b. Var ( x ) =np ( 1− p )=50 ( .4 )( 1−.4 ) =12
σ =√ Var (x)= √12=3.464
3 x e 3
f ( x) 
44. a. x!
32 e 3 9(.0498)
f (2)    .2241
b. 2! 2
31 e 3
f (1)   3(.0498)  .1494
c. 1!
d. P(x ≥ 2) = 1 – f(0) – f(1) = 1 – .0498 – .1494 = .8008
2 x e 2
f ( x) 
45. a. x!
b. μ = 6 for three time periods
6 x e 6
f ( x) 
c. x!
22 e 2 4(.1353)
f (2)    .2706
d. 2! 2
6 6 e 6
f (6)   .1606
e. 6!
45 e 4
f (5)   .1563
f. 5!
46. a. μ = 48 (5/60) = 4
3 -4
f (3) = 4 e = (64) (.0183) = .1952

3! 6
b. μ = 48 (15 / 60) = 12
10 -12
f (10) = 12 e = .1048
10 !
c. μ = 48 (5 / 60) = 4. I expect four callers to be waiting after five minutes.
0 -4
f (0) = 4 e = .0183
0!
The probability none will be waiting after five minutes is .0183.
d. μ = 48 (3 / 60) = 2.4
0 -2.4
f (0) = 2.4 e = .0907

0!
The probability of no interruptions in three minutes is .0907.
47. a. 30 per hour
b. μ = 1 (5/2) = 5/2
(5 / 2)3 e  (5 / 2)
f (3)   .2138
3!
(5 / 2)0 e  (5 / 2)
f (0)   e  (5 / 2)  .0821
c. 0!
48. a. For a 15-minute period, the mean is 14.4/4 = 3.6.
3.60 e 3.6
f (0)   e 3.6  .0273
0!
b. Probability = 1 – f(0) = 1 – .2073 = .9727
c. Probability = 1 – [f(0) + f(1) + f(2) + f(3)]
= 1 – [.0273+ .0984 + .1771 + .2125] = .4847
Note: The value of f(0) was computed in part a; a similar procedure was used to
compute the probabilities for f(1), f(2), and f(3).
100 e 10
f (0)   e 10  .000045
49. a. 0!
b. f(0) + f(1) + f(2) + f(3)
f(0) = .000045 (part a)
101 e 10
f (1)   .00045
1!
Similarly, f(2) = .002267, f(3) = .007567
and
f(0) + f(1) + f(2) + f(3) = .010329
c. 2.5 arrivals / 15-second period: Use μ = 2.5
2.50 e 2.5
f (0)   .0821
0!
d. 1 – f(0) = 1 – .0821 = .9179
50. a. μ = 18/30 = .6 per day during June.
.60 e .6
f (0)   .5488
b. 0!
.61 e .6
f (1)   .3293
c. 1!
d. P(More than 1) = 1 – f(0) – f(1) = 1 ̶ .5488 ̶ .3293 = .1219
51. Poisson with μ = 5 e-mails / hour.
 x e 
f ( x) 
x!
a.
50 e−5
f ( 0 )= =.0067
0!
5 0 e−5 51 e−5 52 e−5

b. f ( x ≥3 )=1−f ( 0 )−f (1 )−f ( 2 )=1− − − =.8753
0! 1! 2!
5
c. μ= =1.25 per 15 minutes
4
1.250 e−1.25
d. f ( 0 )= =.2865
0!
 3  10  3   3!   7! 
  
1 4  1   1!2!   3!4!  (3)(35)
f (1)        .50
 10  10! 210
  4!6!
4
Ch 6
8.
9. a.
b. .683 because 45 and 55 are within plus or minus one standard deviation from the mean
of 50. (Use the table or see characteristic 7a of the normal distribution.)
c. .954 because 40 and 60 are within plus or minus two standard deviations from the mean
of 50. (Use the table or see characteristic 7b of the normal distribution.)
10.
a. P(z ≤ 1.5) = .9332
b. P(z ≤ 1.0) = .8413
c. P(1 ≤ z ≤ 1.5) = P(z ≤ 1.5) – P(z < 1) = .9932 – .8413 = .0919
d. P(0 < z < 2.5) = P(z < 2.5) – P(z ≤ 0) = .9938 – .5000 = .4938
11. a. P(z ≤ –1) = .1587
 =5
35 40 45 50 55 60 65
b. P(z ≥ –1) = 1 – P(z < –1) = 1 – .1587 = .8413
P(z ≥ –1.5) = 1 – P(z < –1.5) = 1 – .0668 = .9332
d. P(–2.5 ≤ z) = 1 – P(z < –2.5) = 1 – .0062 = .9938
e. P(–3 < z ≤ 0) = P(z ≤ 0) – P(z ≤ –3) = .5000 – .0013 = .4987
12. a. P(0 ≤ z ≤ .83) = .7967 – .5000 = .2967
b. P(–1.57 ≤ z ≤ 0) = .5000 – .0582 = .4418
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3
c. P(z > .44) = 1 – .6700 = .3300
d. P(z ≥ –.23) = 1 – .4090 = .5910
e. P(z < 1.20) = .8849
f. P(z ≤ –.71) = .2389
13. a.P(–1.98 ≤ z ≤ .49) = P(z ≤ .49) – P(z < –1.98) = .6879 – .0239 = .6640
b. P(.52 ≤ z ≤ 1.22) = P(z ≤ 1.22) – P(z < .52) = .8888 – .6985 = .1903
c. P(–1.75 ≤ z ≤ –1.04) = P(z ≤ –1.04) – P(z < –1.75) = .1492 – .0401 = .1091
14. a. The z-value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .9750 is z = 1.96.
b. The z-value here also corresponds to a cumulative probability of .9750: z = 1.96.
c. The z-value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .7291 is z = .61.
d. Area to the left of z is 1 – .1314 = .8686. So z = 1.12.
e. The z-value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .6700 is z = .44.
f. The area to the left of z is .6700. So z = .44.
15. a. The z-value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .2119 is z = –.80.
b. Compute .9030/2 = .4515; z corresponds to a cumulative probability of .5000 + .4515
= .9515. So z = 1.66.
c. Compute .2052/2 = .1026; z corresponds to a cumulative probability of .5000 + .1026
= .6026. So z = .26.
d. The z-value corresponding to a cumulative probability of .9948 is z = 2.56.
e. The area to the left of z is 1 – .6915 = .3085. So z = –.50.
16. a. The area to the left of z is 1 – .0100 = .9900. The z-value in the table with a
cumulative probability closest to .9900 is z = 2.33.
b. The area to the left of z is .9750. So z = 1.96.
c. The area to the left of z is .9500. Because .9500 is exactly halfway between .9495 (z =
1.64) and .9505(z = 1.65), we select z = 1.645. However, z = 1.64 or z = 1.65 are also
acceptable answers.
d. The area to the left of z is .9000. So z = 1.28 is the closest z-value.
17.  = 183 and  = 10.5
x−μ 175−183
a. z= = =−0.76
σ 10.5
P ( x ≤ 175 )=P ( z ≤−0.76 )=.2236
The probability that a Dutch male is shorter than 175 cm is .2236.
x−μ 195−183
b. z= = =1.14
σ 10.5
P ( x ≥ 195 )=1−P ( x ≤ 195 )=1−P ( z ≤1.14 )=1−.8729=.1271
The probability that a Dutch male is taller than 195 cm is .1271.
c. For x = 193,
x−μ 193−183
z= = =0.95
σ 10.5
For x = 173,
x−μ 173−183
z= = =−0.95
σ 10.5
P(173 £ x £ 193) = P ( z ≤ 0.95 )−P ( z ≤−0.95 )=.8289−.1711=.6578
The probability that a Dutch male is between 173 cm and 193 cm is .6578.
x−μ 190−183
d. z= = =0.67
σ 10.5
P ( x ≥ 190 )=1−P ( x ≤ 190 )=1−P ( z ≤ 0.67 )=1−.7486=.2514
So, we would expect about .2514(1000) = 251.4, or approximately 251 Dutch men out
of a random sample of 1,000, to be taller than 190 cm.
18.  = 14.4 and  = 4.4
20  14.4
z  1.27
a. At x = 20, 4.4
P(z  1.27) = .8980
P(x ≤ 20) = 1 – .8980 = .1020
10  14.4
z  1.00
b. At x = 10, 4.4
P(z ≤ –1.00) = .1587
So,
P(x  10) = .1587
c. A z-value of 1.28 cuts off an area of approximately 10% in the upper tail.
x = 14.4 + 4.4(1.28) = 20.03
A return of 20.03% or higher will put a domestic stock fund in the top 10%.
19. a. μ = 367 and σ = 88.
x - m 450 - 367
z= = =.94
s 88
P(x >450) =P(z >.94) =1- P(z £.94) =1- .8264 =.1736
The probability that the cost will be more than $450 is .1736.
x   250  367
z    1.33
b.  88
P(x £250) =P(z £ - 1.33) =.0918
The probability that the cost will be less than $250 is .0918.
c. P (250  x  450)  P( x  450)  P( x  250)  P(z £.94) - P(z £ - 1.33) =.8264 - .0918 =.7346
The probability that the cost will be between $250 and $450 is .7346.
d. Lower 5% occurs for z = –1.645
x + zs =367 +1.645(88) =$222.24
For a car repair in the lower 5%, the cost must be $222.24 or less.
20. a. United States:   3.73   .25
At x = 3.50,
3.5  3.73
z  .92
.25
P(z < –.92) = .1788
So, P(x < 3.50) = .1788
b. Russia:   3.40   .20
At x = 3.50,
3.50  3.40
z  .50
.20
P(z < .50) = .6915
So, P(x < 3.50) = .6915
That is, 69.15% of the gas stations in Russia charge less than $3.50 per gallon.
c. Use mean and standard deviation for Russia.
At x = 3.73,
3.73  3.40
z  1.65
.20
P ( z  1.65)  1  P ( z  1.65)  1  .9505  .0495
P ( x  3.73)  .0495
The probability that a randomly selected gas station in Russia charges more than the
mean price in the United States is .0495. Stated another way, only 4.95% of the gas
stations in Russia charge more than the average price in the United States.
21. From the normal probability tables, a z-value of 2.05 cuts off an area of approximately .
02 in the upper tail of the distribution.
x =  + z = 100 + 2.05(15) = 130.75
A score of 131 or better should qualify a person for membership in Mensa.
22. Use  = 8.35 and  = 2.5.
a. We want to find P(5 ≤ x ≤10).
At x = 10,
x   10  8.35
z   .66
 2.5
At x = 5,
x   5  8.35
z   1.34
 2.5
P(5 ≤ x ≤ 10) = P(–1.34 ≤ z ≤ .66) = P(z ≤ .66) – P(z ≤ –1.34)
= .7454 – .0901
= .6553
The probability of a household viewing television between 5 and 10 hours a day is .
6553.
b. Find the z-value that cuts off an area of .03 in the upper tail. Using a cumulative
probability of 1 – .03 = .97, z = 1.88 provides an area of .03 in the upper tail of the
normal distribution.
x =  + z = 8.35 + 1.88(2.5) = 13.05 hours
A household must view slightly more than 13 hours of television a day to be in the top
3% of television viewing households.
x   3  8.35
z   2.14
c. At x = 3,  2.5
P(x>3) = 1 – P(z< –2.14) = 1 – .0162 = .9838
The probability a household views more than three hours of television a day is .9838.
60  80
z  2
23. a. 10
P(z ≤ –2) = .0228. So P(x < 60) = .0228
b. At x = 60
60  80
z  2
10 Area to left is .0228
At x = 75
75  80
z  .5
10 Area to left is .3085.
P(60  x  75) = .3085 – .0228 = .2857
90  80
z 1
c. 10 P(z ≤ 1) = P(x ≤ 90) = .1587
Therefore 15.87% of students will not complete on time.
(60) (.1587) = 9.52
We would expect 9 or 10 students to be unable to complete the exam in time.
24.  = 749 and  = 225
x   400  749
z   1.55
a.  225
P ( x  400) = P ( z  1.55) = .0606
The probability that expenses will be less than $400 is .0606.
x   800  749
z   .23
b.  225
P ( x  800) = P ( z  .23) = 1 - P ( z  .23) = 1 – .5910 = .4090
The probability that expenses will be $800 or more is .4090.
x - m 1000 - 749
z= = =1.12
c. For x = 1000, s 225
x - m 500 - 749
z= = =- 1.11
For x = 500, s 225
P(500 £ x £ 1000) = P (z £1.12) - P (z £- 1.11) = .8686 - .1335 = .7351
The probability that expenses will be between $500 and $1,000 is .7351.
d. The upper 5%, or area = 1- .05 =.95 occurs for z =1.645
x    z = 749 + 1.645(225) = $1119
The 5% most expensive travel plans will be $1,119 or more.
25.  = 75,847 and  = 33,800
x−μ 100,000−75,847
a. z= = =0.71
σ 33,800
P ( x ≥ 100,000 )=1−P ( x ≤ 100,000 )=1−P ( z ≤ 0.71 )=1−.7611=.2389
The probability that a household income is more than $100,000 is .2389.
x−μ 40,000−75,847
b. z= = =−1.06
σ 33,800
P ( x ≤ 40,000 )=P ( z ≤−1.06 )=.1446
The probability that a household income is $40,000 or less is .1446.
x−μ 70,000−75,847
c. For x = 70,000, z= = =−0.17
σ 33,800
For x = 50,000,
x−μ 50,000−75,847
z= = =−0.76
σ 33,800
P(50,000 £ x £ 70,000) = P ( z ≤−0.17 )−P ( z ≤−0.76 )=.4325−.2236=.2089
The probability that a household income is between $50,000 and $70,000 is .2089.
d. The 90th percentile occurs at z = 1.28.
x=μ+ zσ =75,847+1.28 ( 33,800 )=119,111
The 90th percentile of annual household income in Maryland is $119,111.

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Chapter 4

1. Number of experimental outcomes = (3)(2)(4) = 24

ABC ACE BCD BEF

BDF BFD DBF DFB FBD FDB

1st Toss 2nd Toss 3rd Toss

5. P(Ei) = 1/5 for i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

The classical method was used.

6. P(E1) = .40, P(E2) = .26, P(E3) = .34

The relative frequency method was used.

7. No. Requirement (4.4) is not satisfied; the probabilities do not sum to 1.

P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) + P(E4) = .10 + .15 + .40 + .20 = .85

positive—council approves; planning commission positive—council disapproves;

planning commission negative—council approves; and planning commission negative

b. Let p = positive, n = negative, a = approves, and d = disapproves

Programmer Total Lines of Code Number of Lines of Code Probability

Written Requiring Edits

c. Probability = 1 – 3780 / 26050 = 1 – 0.1451 = 0.8549

11. a. P(adult in the Tri-State Region smokes) = 118/(118+492) = 118/610 = .1934

b. P(adult in KY smokes) = 47/223 = .2108

P(adult in IN smokes) = 32/166 = .1928

P(adult in OH smokes) = 39/221 = .1765

Total number of Powerball lottery outcomes:

(11,238,513) x (26) = 292,201,338

b. Probability of winning the lottery: 1 chance in 292,201,338

14. a. P(E2) = 1/4

b. P(any 2 outcomes) = 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2

c. P(any 3 outcomes) = 1/4 + 1/4 + 1/4 = 3/4

15. a. S = {ace of clubs, ace of diamonds, ace of hearts, ace of spades}

b. S = {2 of clubs, 3 of clubs, . . . , 10 of clubs, J of clubs, Q of clubs, K of clubs, A of

d. For a: 4/52 = 1/13 = .08

For b: 13/52 = 1/4 = .25

For c: 12/52 = .23

16. a. (6)(6) = 36 sample points

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Total for Both .

e. No. P(odd) = 18/36 = P(even) = 18/36 or 1/2 for both.

f. Classical. A probability of 1/36 is assigned to each experimental outcome.

17. a. (4,6), (4,7), (4,8)

b. .05 + .10 + .15 = .30

c. (2,8), (3,8), (4,8)

d. .05 + .05 + .15 = .25

18. a. Let C = corporate headquarters located in California:

P(C) = 53/500 = .106

b. Let N = corporate headquarters located in New York

T = corporate headquarters located in Texas

P(T) = 52/500 = .104

Located in California, New York, or Texas:

P(C) + P( N ) + P(T ) =.106 + .100 + .104 =.31

c. Let A = corporate headquarters located in one of the eight states

P(A) = 283/500 = .566

these eight states.

19. a. Probability = 131/(134 + 131 + 2) = 131/(267) = .4906

b. Probability = (432)/(293 + 432 + 8) = 432/733 = .5894

c. Probability = (134 + 293) /(267 + 733) = 427/1,000 = .427

their lifetime than are younger respondents.

c. P(Age >24) =P(E3 ) + P(E4 ) =.2585 +.0445 =.3030

had unrealistic expectations about becoming financially independent at a relatively

22. a. P(A) = .40, P(B) = .40, P(C) = .60

c. Ac = {E3, E4, E5} Cc = {E1, E4} P(Ac) = .60 P(Cc) = .40

d. A  Bc = {E1, E2, E5} P(A  Bc) = .60