Ordinal Regression

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ORDINAL REGRESSION

Author: Basile Marquier Date Amended: 15/04/2019

The following resources are associated:


SPSS dataset Graduate.sav’

Ordinal regression in SPSS


Dependent (outcome) variable: ordinal
Independent (explanatory) variables: Continuous (scale) and/or Categorical
Common Applications: Regression is used to (a) look for significant relationships
between two variables or (b) predict a value of one variable for a given value of the other.
Data: The data set ‘Graduate.sav’ looks at factors that influence the decision of whether to
apply to graduate school. College juniors are asked if they are unlikely, somewhat likely, or
very likely to apply to graduate school. Hence, our outcome variable has three categories.

College juniors are asked if they are unlikely, somewhat likely, or very likely to apply to
graduate school. Hence, our outcome variable has three categories. Data on parental
educational status, whether the undergraduate institution is public or private, and current
GPA is also collected.

Assumptions for Ordinal regression


Assumptions How to check
Proportional Odds Test of parallel lines

Steps in SPSS
Analyze  Regression  Ordinal

Move ‘Decision to apply’ to the Dependent box. The categorical independent variables
‘Education of parents’ and ‘Private or Public institution’ should be moved to the Factor(s)
box. The scale independent variable GPA score should be moved to Covariate(s) box.

We will keep the default options:

© Basile Marquier
University of Sheffield
Ordinal regression in SPSS

We will tick “Test of parallel lines” as it will check the assumption of proportional odds.
Ordinal regression in SPSS

Output

Model Fitting Information


-2 Log
Model Likelihood Chi-Square df Sig.
Intercept Only 557.272
Final 533.091 24.180 3 .000
Link function: Logit.

The p-value of less than 0.001 shows that the model is a very good finding on how well does the
model fits the data.

Goodness-of-Fit
Chi-Square df Sig.
Pearson 400.843 435 .878
Deviance 400.749 435 .879
Link function: Logit.

For this table, we would like to fail to reject the null hypothesis in order for our model to be a good
fit. There are two tests (Pearson and Deviance). Both reject the null hypothesis.

Test of Parallel Linesa


-2 Log
Model Likelihood Chi-Square df Sig.
Null Hypothesis 533.091
General 529.077 4.014 3 .260
The null hypothesis states that the location parameters (slope coefficients) are
the same across response categories.
a. Link function: Logit.

This tests the assumption of proportional odds and we want it to be greater than 0.05. This is the
case here (p-value = 0.26). The main assumption of the ordinal regression is checked.
Ordinal regression in SPSS

Parameter Estimates
95% Confidence Interval
Estimate Std. Error Wald df Sig. Lower Bound Upper Bound
Threshold [apply = 1] 1.214 .939 1.671 1 .196 -.627 3.055
[apply = 2] 3.310 .952 12.076 1 .001 1.443 5.177
Location gpa .616 .263 5.499 1 .019 .101 1.130
[pared=.00] -1.048 .268 15.231 1 .000 -1.574 -.522
[pared=1.00] 0a . . 0 . . .
[public=.00] .059 .289 .041 1 .839 -.507 .624
[public=1.00] 0a . . 0 . . .
Link function: Logit.
a. This parameter is set to zero because it is redundant.

The most interesting aspect is the locations. We have a statistically significant result for GPA score
(p-value = 0.019). We also have a statistically significant result for variable “pared” (p-value <
0.001). On the other hand, the fact that the undergraduate institution is public or private does not
have any statistically significant impact on the dependent variable “apply”.

The value of the GPA coefficient is positive (0.616), which suggests that as GPA increases the
likelihood of applying to a graduate school will increase. The value of [pared=0] is negative (-
1.048), which suggests that if you are in the category “pared=0”, i.e. no parents have a degree, you
are less likely to apply to a graduate school.

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