IMS Proschool CFA Ebook
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1.Financial Statement
Analysis – An Introduction
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Role of Financial Reporting and FSA
Performance
(Profitability, Cash Flow)
Forecast
Evaluate
Past & Future
Present
Financial Position
Supplementary information
Footnotes
Management discussion & analysis
External auditor’s report
Basic Philospophy
Basic Philosophy
Audit Reports
• These are the public relations or the sales material written by the
Corporate management.
Reports and
Press Releases
Objective and
• Define the purpose of the analysis , information presentation , time
context of the
availability and budget.
Analysis
• Gathering company’s financial data and also information on the
Gather Data economy and industry to understand the environment in which the
company operates.
Analyze and • Interpreting the output and using the data to answer the questions
interpret the data .
Report the
• Prepare the report and communicate the conclusion and
conclusions or
recommendation in the right format to the target audience.
recommendations
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Inter Globe –Indigo Airlines
Snapshot of Snapshot of
Sales Expenses
Snapshot of
Snapshot of
other
Profitability
activities
Gross Profit • After deducting those costs what's the Gross profit
-Non Operating Expenses • Cost of borrowed funds (this is interest not EMI)
Income Statement
Revenue
SG&A Net Income
Income earned through Principal Depreciation
activities Costs not directly related to the Final profit generated in the
Cost of assets allocated over time
production of goods business
30,000.00
2,000.00
25,000.00
1,500.00
20,000.00
15,000.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
500.00
5,000.00
0.00 0.00
2012.00 2013.00 2014.00 2015.00 2016.00
Economic
Entity gives Revenue Cost can be
Risk Benefits
away Measured measured
Transferred Flow to the
control Reliably Reliably
entity
A customer Buys a product from flipkart, and Risk of ownership of the the product
the product is received by the customer transferred to the customer, flipkart
within 7 days doesn’t hold the risk anymore
A customer books a flat in Kolte Patil-wagholi Ownership not transferred, Kolte Patil still
project and pays 15 lacs as advance payment hasn’t transferred the risk of ownership
to the customer
IASB provides that revenue is Example when you cannot recognize revenue
to be recognized when:
Significant risks and rewards Goods are delivered to a retail store to be sold on
are transferred to buyer consignment or refund is possible
No managerial involvement is Real estate still in the course of construction and is
retained unavailable for use
IFRS US GAAP
•Amount of revenue can be measured • Price is determined or determinable.
reliably. • Evidence of arrangement between buyer and
• It is probable that economic benefits seller.
associated with the transaction will flow to • Product has been delivered or service has
the entity. been rendered.
• Stage of completion of the transaction can • Recognize when “realized or realizable and
be measured reliably. earned”.
• Transaction costs can also be measured • Seller is reasonably sure of collecting
reliably. money.
• The entity no longer has any managerial
involvement or effective control over the
goods sold.
Before Goods Are Fully At the Time Goods Are After Goods Are Delivered or
Delivered or Services Delivered or Services Services Rendered
Completely Rendered Rendered
For example, with long-term Recognize revenues using For example, with real estate
contracts where the outcome normal revenue recognition sales where there is doubt
can be reliably measured, the criteria. about the buyer’s ability to
percentage-of-completion complete payments, the
method is used. installment method and cost
recovery method are
appropriate.
Company Augusta
would like Company is
Electronic Shop sells
making roads in a three
electronics on EMI Basis
year project but can’t
measure costs reliably
Revenue Recognition
Installment Sales
A long-term contract is one that spans a number of accounting periods. In such cases, difficulty
arises in determining when revenue should be recognized.
Outcome Percentage of
Measured Reliably Completion
Company ABC has a contract to build roads worth $ 12 million. It will take
three years to build these roads. The total costs to build the road are
estimated to be $ 10 million.
If ABC recognizes the contract revenues on a percent of completion basis
and estimates percentage complete on the basis of expenses incurred then
what would be the revenues of ABC for the next 3 years are per the
percent of completion basis?
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
Project Expenses 5 3 2
Total Project Expenses 5 8 10
% of Costs
Incurred in that % of Costs Incurred
Year 50 30 20 in that Year 50 30 20
% of Project % of Project
Complete 50 80 100 Complete 50 80 100
Expected
Revenue 6 4 2 Expected Revenue 0 0 12
Instalment sales are when sales proceeds are paid in instalments over multiple accounting
periods
Installment Sales
Instalment Method
Payments are not
Sure
Cost Recovery
Method
Assume the total sales price and cost of a property are $ 300,000 and
$150,000, respectively.
The profit on this transaction is $150,000.
The amount of cash received by the seller as a down payment is $100,000
with the remainder of the sales price to be recognized over a 5-year period.
It has been determined that there is significant doubt about the ability and
commitment of the buyer to complete all payments.
How much profit will be recognized attributable to the down payment if:
The installment method is used?
The cost recovery method is used?
Gross Revenue Reporting : Sales and cost of sales are reported separately
Net Revenue Reporting : Only the difference between sales and costs of sales
is reported on the income statement
US GAAP – Only under the following conditions can a company report
revenues based on the gross reporting
Company is a primary obligor under the contract
Company bears the inventory and credit risk
Company can choose its suppliers
Company has reasonable latitude to establish price
Force Motors
Matching Principle
Match expenses with associated revenues
Example
Some current period revenues are made from inventory purchased in the
previous period
The matching principle requires that the company matches the COGS with the
revenues of the period
Period Costs
Expenses that less directly matching the timing of revenues
Example
Administrative Expenses
Doubtful accounts
When companies sell on credit, customers may default
At the time of sale company estimates how much will be uncollectible based
on previous experience
The estimated amount is written off as expense
Warranties
Company estimates the amount of future expenses resulting from
warranties, to recognize an estimated warranty expense, and to update the
expense over the life of the warranty
Weighted Average
Methods
Cost
Tata Motors
Method
Consider a company which started a year with an inventory of 100 units bought
at $10 each.
During the year company purchased an additional inventory of 800 units at an
average cost of $11 each.
Total sales made by the company were 750 units at $15 each.
It has been identified that the beginning inventory is completely sold this year.
Solution
Units Per Unit Value
Sales 11,250
COGS 8,150
Gross Profit 3,100 Inventory Value 1,650
Tangible Depreciation
Costs that
Benefit> 1 Year
Intangible Amortization
Costs
Recognition
Benefit Accrues
Benefits Accrues
more than a
only one year
year
Example: Example:
Salaries,
Advertisement Depreciation
Long lived assets are assets expected to provide economic benefits over a future period
of time greater than one year Example – Property, Plant and Equipment
Depreciation is a process of systematically allocating costs of long lived assets over the
period during which the assets are expected to provide economic benefits
Methods of depreciation:
Straight Line Method: Allocates evenly the cost of Long lived asset over the
useful life of the asset
Accelerated Method: Allocates a greater proportion of costs to early years
of the useful life of the asset
Micros
oft
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Amortization
Depreciation of Intangibles
It spreads costs of intangibles (e.g. Patents, Copyrights, etc.) over life
For intangible assets that must be amortized the process is same as for
depreciation
Per IAS No. 38 , if the pattern cannot be determined over the useful life, then
straight line method should be used
Goodwill generated during acquisition is not amortized
Goodwill impairment happens on the bass of annual reviews
Unusual Or Infrequent
Shown Pre Tax
Items
Operations management
Discontinued Operations Shown net of tax
decided to dispose of
Inter-globe
Convertible
Common Convertible Debt Preference Stock Options To
Preference
Shareholders Holders Shares Employees
Shares
Option to Buy
Convertible to Require Fixed
Inter globe
shares Dividend
shares
Total
Earnings
available to
Equity Share
Holders
Earning Per
Share
( EPS)
Number of
shares
outstanding
Shares
Shares adjusted for 10%
Month *
Date Activity No of shares Adjusted for Number
Dividend Noof Adjusted
of months Months adjusted shares
Date Activity
Shares Number of Shares 10% Dividend months shares
01-01-2009 outstanding 100000 110000 12 110000
01/01/2009 Shares Outstanding 100,000 110,000 12 1,320,000
01/04/2009
01-04-2009 Shares Issued
Shares issued 50000 50,000 55,000
55000 9 9 495,000 41250
250,000
=
144,375
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Diluted EPS
If a company has dilutive securities then, diluted EPS will be lower than Basic EPS
There are 3 types of dilutive securities:
Convertible Preferred Stock
Convertible Outstanding Debt
Stock Options, Warrants
If the security is dilutive i.e. it reduces the Diluted EPS < Basic EPS then it is converted. Else
conversion does not occur.
Convertible preferred:
if (dividends/new shares) < basic EPS, then security is dilutive
Convertible debt:
if (interest (1 – t)/new shares) < basic EPS, then it’s dilutive
Options and warrants:
if (average market price of share ) > exercise price, then it’s dilutive
Example 31/21/2009
Net Income $500,000,000
Common Stock of $10 each 20000000 = Number of Shares
Tax Rate 40%
Example 31/21/2009
Net Income $500,000,000
Common Stock of $10 each 20000000
Tax Rate 40% = Number of Shares
Example
31/21/2009
Net Income $500,000,000
Common Stock of $10 each 20,000,000 = Number of Shares
Average Price of stock $20.00
Exercise Price $15.00
Number of Options outstanding 1000000
Basic EPS $25.00
= 750,000
If converted 0 40,000
Denominator 600,000 640,000
EPS $3.83 $3.91
Operating expenses:
Research and development (1,333) (1,109)
Selling, general & administrative (4,149) (3,761)
Total operating expenses 5,482 4,870
Operating expenses:
Research and development -4% -3%
Selling, general & administrative -11% -12%
Total operating expenses -15% -15%
Gross Profit
Gross Profit Margin =
Net Sales
Net Profit
Net Profit Margin =
Net Sales
Opening stock holders equity was $300m. Closing stock holders equity was
$500m. On review of statement of stockholders’ equity we discover that
owners contributed $40m of equity during the year. Net Income for the year
was $100m and dividends paid were $15m .
Calculate the comprehensive income
Partic ulars
Re ve nue s
M ar ' 1 2
7 ,9 6 4 .2
M ar ' 1 3
8 ,9 7 2
M ar ' 1 4
1 0 ,4 1 9
M ar ' 1 5
1 1 ,6 4 9
Stoc k a dj us te me nts (1 4 3 .8 ) (1 7 6 ) (7 5 ) (1 3 2 )
-1 .8 % -2 .0 % -0 .7 % -1 .1 %
Berger International.
Othe r mfg e xp - - - -
0 .0 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 %
Total c osts 4 ,7 9 9 .8 5 ,2 8 7 6 ,0 8 8 6 ,5 9 1
6 0 .3 % 5 8 .9 % 5 8 .4 % 5 6 .6 %
Gross profit 3 ,1 6 4 .4 3 ,6 8 5 4 ,3 3 1 5 ,0 5 8
3 9 .7 % 4 1 .1 % 4 1 .6 % 4 3 .4 %
Indi re c t c os ts
Empl oye e c os ts 3 4 1 .6 405 482 607
4 .3 % 4 .5 % 4 .6 % 5 .2 %
SGA - - - -
0 .0 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 %
Mi s c . e xp 1 ,4 7 1 .0 1 ,7 3 3 2 ,0 7 1 2 ,4 4 0
1 8 .5 % 1 9 .3 % 1 9 .9 % 2 0 .9 %
L e s s : pre -op e xp - - - -
0 .0 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 % 0 .0 %
Total indire c t 1 ,8 1 2 .6 2 ,1 3 8 2 ,5 5 3 3 ,0 4 7
2 2 .8 % 2 3 .8 % 2 4 .5 % 2 6 .2 %
Total c osts 6 ,6 1 2 .4 7 ,4 2 4 8 ,6 4 2 9 ,6 3 8
8 3 .0 % 8 2 .8 % 8 2 .9 % 8 2 .7 %
EBITDA 1 ,3 5 1 .8 1 ,5 4 7 1 ,7 7 7 2 ,0 1 1
1 7 .0 % 1 7 .2 % 1 7 .1 % 1 7 .3 %
EBIT 1 ,2 5 2 .3 1 ,4 2 0 1 ,5 6 5 1 ,7 8 7
1 5 .7 % 1 5 .8 % 1 5 .0 % 1 5 .3 %
Inte re s t c os ts 3 0 .8 31 26 27
0 .4 % 0 .3 % 0 .3 % 0 .2 %
accounts
- Inc ome ta x 4 0 4 .5 466 534 606
- FBT 0 .1 - - -
- De fe rre d Ta x - - - -
Tota l ta xe s 4 0 4 .6 466 534 606
e ffe c ti ve ta x ra te 2 9 .7 % 3 0 .7 % 3 1 .3 % 3 1 .3 %
PA T 9 5 8 .3 1 ,0 5 0 .0 1 ,1 6 9 .1 1 ,3 2 7 .4
1 2 .0 % 1 1 .7 % 1 1 .2 % 1 1 .4 %
Return on sales
Operating profit margin Operating income Revenue
Pretax margin EBT (earnings before tax but Revenue
after interest)
Net profit margin Net income Revenue
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Why is Balance Sheet Important
Predicting future
Understanding The Understanding The
outflows and
Asset Position at a Debt Position at a
Inflows at a point in
point in time point in time
time
Liquidity and
solvency situation
over the years
Liabilities
Value
we owe to
created for
others like
shareholders
Expense banks or
when
Accounting far
Principle suppliers
incurred
Assets
Revenue Created so
When
Earned far including
machinery
and cash
• Assets on Left
Account • Liabilities and Equity on the right of a central dividing line
Format
Cash paid in
advance for
an expense
Revenue
Reported on Expense
Income Increase in Decrease in Reported
Statement but Assets( Prepaid assets( Cash) but cash
Cash Not Expense) not paid
Received
Assets Liabilities
Accounts
Property Cash Debt
Payable
• If you look closely you could try to find if Maruti Suzuki’s inventory has increased faster than sales
• You could also try to understand why current investments has decreased so significantly
• Inventories are physical products that will eventually be sold to the company’s customers, either in their
current form (finished goods) or as inputs into a process to manufacture a final product (raw materials
and work-in-process)
• The following techniques can be used to measure the cost of inventories if the resulting valuation
amount approximates cost:
I. Standard cost, which should take into account the normal levels of materials, labor, and actual capacity.
The standard cost should be reviewed regularly to ensure that it approximates actual costs.
II. The retail method in which the sales value is reduced by the gross margin to calculate cost. An average
gross margin percentage should be used for each homogeneous group of items. In addition, the impact
of marked-down prices should be taken into consideration.
• If you see the fixed assets section company has increased its fixed assets, you could try to read the note
12 on the same annual report to find out why and what
Current Liabilities
Expected to be settled in the entities normal operating cycle
Held primarily for the purpose of being traded
Is due to be traded in less than 12 months from balance sheet date
All other liabilities are non current in nature
IFRS US GAAP
Current Assets
Non Current Assets
Current Liabilities
Non Current Liabilities
Minority Interest
Equity Component + Minority Interest
Equity Component
Present Value • The NPV of future cash flows Cash flows generated in
the future by an asset
discounted to get the
value
Current Investments
• Securities (debt & equity) that may be sold to satisfy the company needs
Available • Securities carried at market value
for sale • IS Impact – Same as HTM
• BS Impact – Unrealized gains /Loss in Asset side and Other comprehensive income
securities in the equity (liabilities side)
Example
ABC Intl purchased 10,000 shares on 1 Jan 2009 for $50 per share.
The market price of shares on 31st Dec 2009 was $75.
Dividends of $2 were paid during the year
Show the balance sheet and Income statement entries if these
share are classified as
Held to maturity
Available for sale
Trading securities
Liabilities
Equity
Paid in Capital 500,000 500,000 500,000
Retained earnings 20,000 20,000 270,000
Other Comprehensive Income - 250,000
Capital Contributed by
owners
Equity
Retained Earnings
Treasury Stock
Accumulated other
comprehensive Income
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What is Time Value of Money?
TVM is the basic principle that money can earn interest, so something
Example
that is worth $1 today will be worth more in the future if invested.
Will you agree to a proposal
Definition:
by your company to receive
The difference in the value of cash received (expended) now versus salaries on every 1st of the
its value if received sometime in the future. month instead of the last
Application in real life: day of that month?
The value of an asset is determined by estimating the worth of the
stream of future cash flows.
Who would say ‘NO’
You receive Rs.11,000 at the end of year 1 (10% over 10,000) – time value of money
Your receive Rs 12,100 at the end of year 2 (10% over 11,000) – time value of money +
compounding effect
A 10,000 invested for two years at 10% will fetch 12,000 – so the extra 100 is an
interest on interest (1000 earned during year 1 is also earning 10% for year 2)
Compounding is earning interest on interest.
In Discounting we compute the present values of all the future cash inflows at a
given rate of interest i.e. the value of money at time 0.
Time
0 1
(years)
Bank
Rs.11,000
Future Value
10%
You
Rs.10,000 One Year
Present Value
Example
Compute the present value of $24,200 to be given at the end of 2 years for a rate
of interest of 10%.
PV = 24200 / (1+ 10%)2 = 20,000.
Interest Rate
Required rate of return/
Minimum expected rate Required rate of return is the rate which an investor expects to earn from investment
of return considering underlying risk of the asset.
Corporate Finance professionals need to continuously evaluate multiple projects to
identify the right project which will maximize their returns over their allocated capital.
Opportunity Cost Since, selecting one project over let say 2-3 other projects – the CFO is essentially forgoing
returns of those rejected projects. Hence, opportunity cost is the cost of forgoing other
opportunities to select a particular opportunity.
Discount rate is the rate used for discounting (i.e. bringing) future cash flows to present
Discount rate value.
0 1 2 3 … N-1 N
PV FV = PV * (1 + r) N
Salient Points:
All cash flows should be brought in one time frame
Future value increase with number of periods
Future value increase with the interest rates
Suppose, one wants to Your friend recommended you to check-out the Following are the NAVs of
invest lump sum money Franklin Templeton Prima Plus Mutual Fund. So, Franklin Templeton Prima
into a Mutual Fund for a after careful evaluation of its holdings, sector Plus on every last business
period of 5 years. exposure, fund manager credentials, etc You also day of Indian financial year:
wanted to find the past 5 year period return. To 31-03-2016 432
Also, one decides to the right are the historical NAV details of this
refer past 5 year returns fund. 31-03-2015 442
of Mutual Funds, along 31-03-2014 288
with other risk factors NAV at time=0 is 224 & NAV at time=5 is 432
before finalizing the 28-03-2013 237
right Mutual Fund. So, the annualized return for this period is: 30-03-2012 219
432 = 224 (1 + R)5 31-03-2011 224
Solving for R gives you 14.04% 31-03-2010 201
Example
A bank offers interest rate of 9% per year compounded annually. How much will
you have at the end of 5 years, given the amount invested in the scheme is
Rs.50,000?
Solution:
Given:
0 1 2 3 4 5
50,000 FV = PV * (1 + r) N
r = 9%
PV = 50,000
r = 9%
N=5
FV = 50000 * ( 1 + 9%)5
= 76,931.20
Example
A bank offers interest rate of 9% per year compounded annually. If an amount of
Rs.50000 is invested, what would be the value of investment at the end of 5th
year?
How much will be the amount, if we remain invested till 15 years, in the above
scheme?
Solution:
Given:
At the end of 5th year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
PV = 50,000 50000 FV = PV * (1 + r) N
r = 9%, N = 5
r = 9%
N=5
FV = 50000 * ( 1 + 9%)5
= 76931.20
Given
At the end of 15th year
PV = 50,000
r = 9% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
50000 FV = PV * (1 + r) N
N = 15 r = 9%, N = 10
FV = 50000 * ( 1 + 9%)15
= 182124.12
Example
A bank offers interest rate of 9% per year. How much will you have at the end of 5 years, given
the amount invested in the scheme is Rs.50,000?
If compounding is annual?
If compounding is semi annual?
If compounding is quarterly?
If compounding is monthly?
If compounding is daily?
Solution
For Continuous
Compounding
PV = 50,000 Formula
r = 9%
(rs N)
N = 5 FV = PV * e
(r N) = 1.57
e
FV = 78,415.61
Formula
Solution
Using Financial Calculator (TI BAII)
Press
Steps Remarks
Buttons
1 9 Number fed on the screen
5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 Future Value
Number appearing on the screen is assigned
0 1 2 3 4 5 2 I/Y to the I/Y (Interest, remember this is a
N =0
5,000 percent memory location) memory
3 5 Number fed on the screen
N = 1, r = 9% Number appearing on the screen is
5,450
4 N assigneed to the N (Number of years)
N = 2, r = 9% memory
5,941
5 0 Number fed on the screen
N = 3, r = 9% Number appearing on the screen is
6,475 6 PV
assigneed to the PV memory
N = 4, r = 9% 7 5000 Number fed on the screen
7,058 Number appearing on the screen is
Total = 29,924 8 PMT assigneed to the PMT (Payment or Annuity)
memory
9 CPT Puts the calculator in computation mode
10 FV Computes FV for the given set of numbers
What is the future value after 5 years for the given cash flow stream?
Solution
Given
r = 9%
Formula
FV = PV * (1+r)N
PV = FV / (1+r)N
Where,
FV = future value of the investment N periods from today
PV = present value o the investment
r = rate of interest per period
0 1 2 3 … N-1 N
FV
PV = FV / (1 + r) N
Example
Abhijeet started working with Infosys and plans to pursue an international MBA
after completing 5 years of experience. The expected tuition fee for a good MBA
program overseas would be approximately USD 50,000. Infosys has provided a
signing bonus to Abhijeet and he wants to determine the right amount that he
should set aside today for his future studies. He visits HSBC and finds out that
they offer a fixed deposit for 5 years at an annual interest rate of 9% compounded
annually.
How much should Abhijeet invest today to earn USD 50,000 at the end of 5 years?
Solution
Given: Using Financial Calculator (TI BAII)
Press
Steps Remarks
Buttons
0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2ND Selects the second function of the calculator
50,000 2 CLR WORK Clears memory
3 50000 Number fed on the screen
PV = FV / (1 + r) N Number appearing on the screen is assigneed to the FV
FV = 50,000 r = 9% 4 FV
memory
5 9 Number fed on the screen
R = 9% Number appearing on the screen is assigneed to the I/Y
6 I/Y (Interest, remember this is a percent memory location)
N=5 memory
7 5 Number fed on the screen
PV = 50000 / (1+9%)5 Number appearing on the screen is assigneed to the N
8 N
(Number of years) memory
= 32,496.57 9 0 Number fed on the screen
Number appearing on the screen is assigneed to the
10 PMT
PMT (Payment or Annuity) memory
11 CPT Puts the calculator in computation mode
12 PV Computes PV for the given set of numbers
Example
Bank fixed deposit will give Rs.5,00,000 after 10 years for the investment you make
today. How much will this investment grow to at the end of 4 years from now?
Interest rate offered by bank is 9% per year compounded annually.
Solution:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
500000
r = 9%, N = 6
PV = FV / ( 1 + r )N
At the end of 4th year
FV = 5,00,000
r = 9%
N=6
PV = 500000 / ( 1 + 9%)6
= 2,98,133.66
Formula
A A A A A
PV = + + + + … +
(1+r)1 (1+r)2 (1+r)3 (1+r)4 (1+r)N
OR
1 - 1/(1+r) N
Where,
PV = A [ r ]
A = annuity amount
r = interest rate per period
N = number of annuity payments
Example
A bank offers interest rate of 9% per year compounded annually. An investor
deposits Rs.5000 at equally spaced interval of one year for the 5 years, payment
happens at the end of year. What is the present value of this ordinary annuity?
Tip to remember:
In the TVM concept, mapping correct cash flows to correct time periods is the key!
Solution
0 1 2 3 4 5
4,587
N = 1, r = 9%
4,208
N = 2, r = 9%
3,861
N = 3, r = 9%
3,542
N = 4, r = 9%
3,250
N = 5, r = 9%
Total = 19,448
An ordinary Annuity has its payment or receipt at the end of the year.
Annuity Due has its payment or receipt at the beginning of the year.
To handle this:
You can set your calculator at the BGN mode, we will see how in the next slides
You can solve the problem assuming it is ordinary annuity and then multiply by
(1+I/Y) to convert it into annuity due
You can ignore the first period amount, solve the rest of the amounts as
ordinary annuity for (N-1) periods and add the first amount. We recommend
this one!
Lets see each one in action.
Example
A bank offers interest rate of 9% per year compounded annually. An investor
deposits Rs.5000 at an annuity of 5 payments, payment happens at the start of year
with the first payment starting today. What is the present value of this annuity?
Set the Financial Calculator (TI BAII) into (or out of) beginning mode
Solution Part 1
Press
Steps Remarks
Buttons
1 2ND Selects the second function of the calculator
Solution Part II
You could have also solved it using ordinary annuity. (Refer slide 32). Answer is
19448.
PV of Annuity Due = 19448*(1.09) ≈21,199
Solution Part III
Solve it as ordinary annuity of 4 payments of 5000 each.
PMT = 5000, N = 4, I/Y =9, FV = 0, CPT PV
PV =16199
Add the first payment of 5000
PV of annuity Due = 21,199
Formula Perpetuity is an
∞ 1 Annuity with No End!
PV = A ∑ (1+r)t Hence, we use a
t= 1
terminal method to
For r >0, compute the present
PV = A / r value, which is dividing
the cash flow by
Example discount rate.
A bank offers interest rate of 9% per year compounded annually. An investor
deposits Rs.5000 at equally spaced interval of one year till perpetuity. What is the
present value of this ordinary annuity?
Solution
PV = 5000 / 0.09 = 55,555.56
Example
A bank offers interest rate of 9% per year compounded annually. An investor deposits Rs.5000 at
equally spaced interval of one year till perpetuity. First payment starting 5 years from now. What
is the present value of this ordinary annuity?
Solution A A ………… A A
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 …… ?
PV = A / r
r = 9%, N = 5
PV = FV / ( 1 + r )N
Example
r = 9%
Present
Time Cash Flow
Value
t=1 2,000 ?
t=2 4,000 ?
t=3 6,000 ?
t=4 8,000 ?
t=5 10,000 ?
Sum = ?
◦ What is the present value for the given cash flows?
Solution
r = 9%
Present
Time Cash Flow
Value
t=1 2,000 1,835 Formula Used
t=2 4,000 3,367
t=3 6,000 4,633 PV = FV / ( 1 + r )N
t=4 8,000 5,667
t=5 10,000 6,499
Sum = 22,001
Formula
FV = PV * (1+r)N To Remember
In financial calculator
r = (FV / PV)(1/N) – 1 add the PV and FV
values with opposite
signs (“+” & “ – ”)
Example
How much is the interest rate offered by a bank, if an investment of Rs.50,000
becomes equal to Rs.1,00,000 at the end of 5 years?
Solution
PV = 50000, FV = - 100000, N = 5, PMT = 0
Compute I/Y = 14.87%
Example
In how many years, an amount of Rs.50,000 will double, given the rate of interest
is 9%?
Solution
PV = 50000, FV = - 100000, I/Y = 9, PMT = 0
Compute N = 8.04 years
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Equity Security in Global Financial Markets
Equity markets are very large
Historically equity markets have offered high returns relative to government bonds and T-bills,
but at higher risk
Vote by proxy: A mechanism that allows a shareholder representative to vote on the shareholder’s behalf
Statutory voting(A common method of voting where each share represents one vote) Vs Cumulative voting
(A voting process whereby each shareholder can accumulate and vote all his or her shares for a single
candidate in an election, as opposed to having to allocate their voting rights evenly among all candidates)
For example, under cumulative voting, if four board directors are to be elected, a shareholder who owns 100
shares is entitled to 400 votes and can either cast all 400 votes in favor of a single candidate or spread them
across the candidates in any proportion
Different classes: Company may issue two classes of common stock: Class A, which is the voting
stock, and Class B, which is the non-voting stock. There is no difference between the two classes
except for voting rights; they generally trade within a close price range of each other
Callable Common shares that give the issuing company the option (or right), but not the
obligation, to buy back the shares from investors at a call price that is specified when the shares
are originally issued
Putable common shares: Common shares that give investors the option (or right) to sell their
shares back to the issuing company at a price that is specified when the shares are originally
issued.
Preference shares are a form of equity in which payments made to preference shareholders
take precedence over payments to common shareholders
Cumulative Preference shares for which any dividends that are not paid accrue and must be
paid in full before dividends on common shares can be paid Vs Non cumulative preference share
for which dividends that are not paid in the current or subsequent periods are forfeited
permanently (instead of being accrued and paid at a later date)
Participating Preference shares that entitle shareholders to receive the standard preferred
dividend plus the opportunity to receive an additional dividend if the company’s profits exceed a
pre-specified level vs Non participating preference share that do not entitle shareholders to
share in the profits of the company. Instead, shareholders are only entitled to receive a fixed
dividend payment and the par value of the shares in the event of liquidation.
Convertible Preference shares A type of equity security that entitles shareholders to convert
their shares into a specified number of common shares
Private Equity securities that are not listed on public exchanges and have no active secondary
market. They are issued primarily to institutional investors via non-public offerings, such as
private placements
Company’s management can focus on
long term value creation
Highly illiquid
Potentially high returns
Venture Capital: Investments that provide “seed” or start-up capital, early-stage financing, or
mezzanine financing to companies that are in the early stages of development and require
additional capital for expansion
Management Buy out (MBO) An event in which a group of investors consisting primarily of the
company’s existing management purchase all of its outstanding shares and take the company
private
Private investment in public equity is generally sought by a public company that is in need of
additional capital quickly and is willing to sell a sizeable ownership position to a private investor
or investor group
Direct investing: Buying and selling securities directly in foreign markets. This means that all
transactions including the purchase and sale of shares, dividend payments, and capital gains are
in the company’s domestic currency
Investors must be familiar with the trading, clearing, and settlement regulations and
procedures of that market
Depository Receipts: A security that trades like an ordinary share on a local exchange and
represents an economic interest in a foreign company
A depository receipt is created when the equity shares of a foreign company are deposited in a
bank (i.e., the depository) in the country on whose exchange the shares will trade. The
depository then issues receipts that represent the shares that were deposited
Depository bank issues receipts that represent deposited shares
A depository receipt that is issued outside of the company’s home country and outside of the
United States mostly in US dollars
A key advantage of GDRs is that they are not subject to the foreign ownership and capital flow
restrictions that may be imposed by the issuing company’s home country because they are sold
outside of that country
A larger portion of shareholders’ total return is based on future price appreciation and future
dividends are unknown
If the company is liquidated, common shareholders will receive whatever amount (if any) is
remaining after the company’s creditors and preference shareholders have been paid.
Uncertainty surrounding the total return of preference shares is less than common shares,
preference shares have lower risk and lower expected return than common shares
Putable common shares are less risky than non-callable shares because they give the investor
the option to sell the shares to the issuer at a pre-determined price. This pre-determined price
establishes a minimum price that investors will receive and reduces the uncertainty associated
with the security’s future cash flow
Callable common shares are riskier than their non-callable counterparts because the issuer has
the option to redeem the shares at a pre-determined price
Putable preference shares have lower risk than non-putable preference shares
Companies issue equity securities on primary markets to raise capital and increase liquidity.
Goal of raising capital are:
1. Finance the company’s revenue-generating activities in order to increase its net income and
maximize the wealth of its shareholders
2. Finance the purchase of long-lived assets, capital expansion projects, research and
development, the entry into new product or geographic regions, and the acquisition of other
companies
3. Capital is raised to fulfil regulatory requirements, improve capital adequacy ratios, or to
ensure that debt covenants are met
Goal of management
Increase the book value (shareholders’ equity on a company’s balance sheet) of the company
and maximize the market value of its equity
Management actions can directly affect the book value of the company (by increasing net
income or by selling or purchasing its own shares), they can only indirectly affect the market
value of its equity
Return on equity: A profitability ratio calculated as net income divided by average shareholders’
equity
ROE=NIt/Average BVEt
Blue chip: Widely held large market capitalization companies that are considered financially
sound and are leaders in their respective industry or local stock market
ROE can increase if net income increases at a faster rate than shareholders’ equity
One reason ROE can increase is if net income decreases at a slower rate than shareholders’
equity, which is not a positive sign
ROE can increase if the company issues debt and then uses the proceeds to repurchase some
of its outstanding shares. This action will increase the company’s leverage and make its equity
riskier
Therefore, it is important to examine the source of changes in the company’s net
income and shareholders’ equity over time
Note Further detail in DuPont formula(FRA)
When investors purchase the company’s equity securities, their minimum required rate of
return is based on the future cash flows they expect to receive. Because these future cash flows
are both uncertain and unknown, the investors’ minimum required rate of return must be
estimated
A. Cost of equity is the minimum expected rate of return that a company must offer its
investors to purchase its shares. Cost of equity may be different from investor’s required rate
of return
B. Because companies try to raise capital at the lowest possible cost, the cost of equity is often
used as a proxy for the investors’ minimum required rate of return
C. If this expected rate of return is not maintained in the secondary market, then the share
price will adjust so that it meets the minimum required rate of return demanded by investors
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Estimated Value and Market Price
By comparing estimates of value and market price, an analyst can conclude whether security
is undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued
An analyst’s final conclusion depends not only on the comparison of the estimated value and
the market price but also on the analyst’s confidence in the estimated value
Confidence in the convergence of the market price to the intrinsic value over the investment
time horizon
In seeking to identify mispricing and attractive investments, analysts are treating market prices
with skepticism
1. Present value models: In present value models, benefits are often defined in terms of cash
expected to be distributed to shareholders (dividend discount models) or in terms of cash flows
available to be distributed to shareholders after meeting capital expenditure and working capital
needs (free-cash-flow-to-equity models)
2. Multiplier models: The model estimates intrinsic value of a common share from a price
multiple for some fundamental variable, such as revenues, earnings, cash flows, or book value.
Examples of the multiples include price to earnings (P/E, share price divided by earnings per
share) and price to sales (P/S, share price divided by sales per share).
3. Enterprise value: A measure of a company’s total market value from which the value of cash
and short-term investments have been subtracted
4. Asset-based valuation models: These models estimate intrinsic value of a common share
from the estimated value of the assets of a corporation minus the estimated value of its
liabilities and preferred shares. The estimated market value of the assets is often determined
by making adjustments to the book value( carrying value) of assets and liabilities.
A dividend is a distribution paid to shareholders based on the number of shares owned, and a
cash distribution made to a company’s shareholders
Cash dividends are typically paid out regularly at known intervals
An extra dividend or special dividend is a dividend that supplements regular cash dividends
with an extra payment
Companies in cyclical industries and companies undergoing corporate and/or financial
restructuring are among those observed to use extra dividends
The payment of dividends is not a legal obligation: dividends must be declared (i.e., authorized)
by a company’s board of directors or they must also be approved by shareholders
Dividend paid could be annually, Quarterly or semi-annually
A stock dividend (also known as a bonus issue of shares) is a type of dividend in which a
company distributes additional shares of its common stock (typically, 2%–10% of the shares then
outstanding) to shareholders instead of cash. A stock dividend divides the “pie” (the market
value of shareholders’ equity) into smaller pieces without affecting the value of the pie or
proportional ownership
A stock split involves an increase in the number of shares outstanding with a consequent
decrease in share price. An example a two-for-one stock split in which each shareholder is
issued an additional share
A reverse stock split involves a reduction in the number of shares outstanding with a
corresponding increase in share price. In a one-for-two reverse stock split, each shareholder
would receive one new share for every two old shares held
A share repurchase (or buyback) is a transaction in which a company uses cash to buy back its
own shares. Shares that have been repurchased are not considered for dividends, voting, or
computing earnings per share
key reasons for engaging in share repurchases
(1) Signaling shares are undervalued
(2) Flexibility in the amount and timing of distributing cash to shareholders
(3) Tax efficiency in markets where tax rates on dividends exceed tax rates on capital gains, and
(4) Ability to absorb increases in outstanding shares because of the exercise of employee stock
options
If the issuing company is assumed to be a going concern, the intrinsic value of a share is the
present value of expected future dividends
If a constant required rate of return is also assumed, then the DDM expression for the intrinsic
value of a share is
V0 estimated as
Terminal stock value: The expected value of a share at the end of the investment horizon—in
effect, the expected selling price. Also called terminal value
Price = PV of Future Dividends + PV of Terminal Value
V0=$34.76
Press NPV
Interest =10
NPV=34.76
For non-dividend-paying use of Dividend Discount model is typically difficult, so in such cases,
analysts often resort to FCFE models
FCFE starts with the calculation of cash flow from operations (CFO). CFO is simply defined as
net income plus non-cash expenses minus investment in working capital. FCFE is a measure of
cash flow generated in a period that is available for distribution to common shareholders
FCFE = CFO – FCInv + Net borrowing
Value = PV of all future FCFE
To estimate the required rate of return on a share, analysts frequently use the capital asset
pricing model (CAPM):
Bond Yield Plus Risk Premium method: it is computed by using an appropriate risk-free rate
(usually a government bond) and adding a risk premium to the yield on the company’s bonds
For a non-callable, non-convertible perpetual preferred share paying a constant divided D and
assuming a required rate of return
V=D/r
For example, a $100 par value non-callable perpetual preferred stock offers an annual dividend of
$5.50. If its required rate of return is 6 percent, the value estimate would be $5.50/0.06 = $91.67
A company does not currently pay a dividend but is expected to begin to do so in five years (at t =
5). The first dividend is expected to be $4.00 and to be received five years from today. That
dividend is expected to grow at 6 percent into perpetuity. The required return is 10 percent.
What is the estimated current intrinsic value?
$0 $0 $0 $0 $4
The company is assumed to experience an initial, finite period of high growth, perhaps prior to
the entry of competitors, followed by an infinite period of sustainable growth
The two-stage DDM thus makes use of two growth rates: a high growth rate for an initial, finite
period followed by a lower, sustainable growth rate into perpetuity
The Gordon growth model is used to estimate a terminal value at time n that reflects the
present value at time n of the dividends received
Stable Growth
High growth
High Growth
Transition
Stable growth
Example: IBM (as of early 2013) pays a dividend of $3.30 per year. An analyst makes the following
estimates:
the current required return on equity for IBM is 9 percent, and dividends will grow at 14 percent
for the next two years, 12 percent for the following three years, and 6.75 percent thereafter.
Based only on the information given, estimate the value of IBM using a three-stage DDM
approach.
D1=3.3×1.14=3.76
D2=3.76×1.14=4.29
D3=4.29×1.12=4.80
D4=4.80×1.12=5.38
D5=5.38×1.12=6.03
V5=6.03×1.065/(.09-.065)
V5=285.87
Press NPV
NPV=204.28
Price Multiple: A ratio that compares the share price with some sort of monetary flow or value to
allow evaluation of the relative worth of a company’s stock
If the ratio falls below a specified value, the shares are identified as candidates for purchase,
and if the ratio exceeds a specified value, the shares are identified as candidates for sale
A common criticism of all of these multiples is that they do not consider the future. This
criticism is true if the multiple is calculated from trailing or current values of the divisor
Counter this criticism by using forward (leading or prospective) price multiples
Such ratios include those used to analyze business performance and financial condition based
on data reported in financial statements
Justified Price Multiple: A price multiple is often related to fundamentals through a discounted
cash flow model, however, such as the Gordon growth model.
Retention Ratio
This method essentially compares relative values estimated using multiples or the relative
values of multiples. The economic rationale underlying the method of comparables is the law of
one price
Using a price multiple to evaluate whether an asset is fairly valued, undervalued, or overvalued
in relation to a benchmark value of the multiple
Choices for the benchmark multiple include the multiple of a closely matched individual stock or
the average or median value of the multiple for the stock’s industry
EBITDA is a proxy for operating cash flow because it excludes depreciation and amortization
P/E is problematic because of negative earnings, In EV/EBITDA multiple EBITDA is usually
positive
Alternative to using EBITDA in EV multiples is to use operating income
Substituting the book value of debt for the market value of debt provides only a rough estimate
of the debt’s market value
Asset-based valuations work well for companies that do not have a high proportion of intangible
or off the books assets and that do have a high proportion of current assets and current
liabilities
Commonly used for valuing private enterprises
Important facts that the practitioner should realize are as follows:
1.Companies with assets that do not have easily determinable market (fair) values such as
property, plant, and equipment are very difficult to analyze
2.Asset and liability fair values can be very different from the values at which they are carried on
the balance sheet of a company.
3.Some intangible assets may not be shown on the books, analyst can give a “floor” value for a
situation involving a significant amount of intangibles.
4.Asset values may be more difficult to estimate in a hyper-inflationary environment.
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Equity Valuation Models
Multiplier Asset
Models Based
Price to Valuation
Earning
Multiple Models
Enterprise Adjustment
value to Book
multiple Value
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COST OF CAPITAL
COST OF CAPITAL: The rate of return that suppliers of capital require as compensation for their
contribution of capital
A potential supplier of capital will not voluntarily invest in a company unless its return meets or
exceeds what the supplier could earn elsewhere
A company typically has several alternatives for raising capital, including issuing equity, debt
and preference share
Weighted average cost of capital: A weighted average of the after tax required rates of return on
a company’s common stock, preferred stock, and long-term debt, where the weights are the
fraction of each source of financing in the company’s target capital structure.
Example: ABC Corporation has the following capital structure: 30 percent debt, 10 percent preferred stock, and 60 percent
equity. Its before-tax cost of debt is 8 percent, its cost of preferred stock is 10 percent, and its cost of equity is 15 percent. If
the company’s marginal tax rate is 40 percent, what is ABC’s weighted average cost of capital?
= 11.44 %
If we assume that a company has a target capital structure and raises capital consistent with
this target, we should use this target capital structure
The target capital structure is the capital structure that a company is striving to obtain
If Target Capital Structure is Unknown use the following approaches:
1. Assume the company’s current capital structure, at market value weights for the
components
2. Examine trends in the company’s capital structure or statements by management regarding
capital structure policy to infer the target capital structure
3. Use averages of comparable companies’ capital structures as the target capital structure
Never Take Book weights of Debts Equity and Preference shares
The cost of capital reflect the riskiness of the future cash flows of the project, product, or
division
For an average-risk project, the opportunity cost of capital is the company’s WACC. If the risk of
the project is above or below average relative to the company’s current portfolio of projects, an
upward or downward adjustment, respectively, is made to the company’s WACC
Cost of Equity
A. Capital Asset Pricing Model Approach: expected return on a stock, E(Ri), is the sum of the
risk-free rate of interest, RF, and a premium for bearing the stock’s market risk, βi(RM − RF)
E(Ri)=RF+βi[E(RM)−RF]
βi = the return sensitivity of stock i to changes in the market return
E(RM) = the expected return on the market
E(RM) − RF = the expected market risk premium
E(RM − RF), is the premium that investors demand for investing in a market portfolio relative to
the risk-free rate
Equity risk premium:The expected return on equities minus the risk-free rate; the premium that
investors demand for investing in equities
Multifactor model that incorporates factors that may be other sources of priced risk (risk for
which investors demand compensation for bearing), including macroeconomic factors and
company-specific factors
E(Ri)=RF+βi1(Factor risk premium)1+βi2(Factor risk premium)2+…+βij(Factor risk premium)j
i. Historical equity risk premium approach: An estimate of a country’s equity risk premium
that is based upon the historical averages of the risk-free rate and the rate of return on the
market portfolio
For example, an analyst might use the historical returns to the TOPIX Index to estimate the risk
premium for Japanese equities
Sustainable growth rate:The rate of dividend (and earnings) growth that can be
sustained over time for a given level of return on equity, keeping the capital
structure constant and without issuing additional common stock
Retention ratio
Beta Estimation for a Public Company: The simplest estimate of beta results from an ordinary
least squares regression of the return on the stock on the return on the market. The actual values
of beta estimates are influenced by several choices:
a) The choice of the index used to represent the market portfolio
b) The length of data period(time) and the frequency of observations. The most common
choice is five years of monthly data, yielding 60 observations
Smoothing Technique/Mean reversion: Some analysts adjust historical betas to reflect the
tendency of betas to revert to 1.
Adjusted beta = (2/3)(Unadjusted beta) + (1/3)(1.0)
Adjusted beta = 0.667×(Unadjusted beta) + 0.333
Beta Project
The costs of the different sources of capital may change, resulting in a change in
the weighted average cost of capital for different levels of financing. The result is
the marginal cost of capital (MCC) schedule
As the company experiences deviations from the target capital structure, the
marginal cost of capital may increase, reflecting these deviations
Amount of New After tax cost of Amount of New Equity Cost of Equity
Debt Debt
New Debt<2 million 2% New Equity<6 million 5%
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Introduction to Fixed Income Securities
Fixed Income Security is an instrument that allows governments, companies, and other types of
issuers to borrow money from investors
Bond: Contractual agreement between the issuer and the bondholders
The payment by issuer of security (most common among them is bond) may consist
Interest/coupon payment
Principal repayment
Bond Indenture/Trust Deed: Legal contract that describes the form of a bond, the obligations
of the issuer, and the rights of the bondholders
Trustee: trustee’s role is to monitor that the issuer complies with the obligations specified in
the indenture and to take action on behalf of the bondholders
Bond covenants: are legally enforceable rules that borrowers and lenders agree on at the
time of a new bond issue
An Indenture will frequently include affirmative (or positive) and negative covenants
Par Value: It is the amount the issuer agrees to repay to the bondholder on the maturity date.
It is also termed as face value, maturity value, redemption value, or principal.
Bond prices are quoted as a percentage of their par value. For example, assume that a bond’s par
value is $1,000. A quote of 95 means that the bond price is $950 (95% × $1,000)
A bond may be issued above (premium) or below (discount) its par value.
Maturity : The maturity date of a bond refers to the date when the issuer is obligated to
redeem the bond by paying the principal amount
Bond with original maturity of < = 1 year Money market
Bond with original maturity of > 1 year Capital market
CAP: Prevents the coupon from rising above a specified maximum rate
Eg. The coupon rate is calculated by formula:
Coupon rate =
10-year Treasury rate + 100 basis points,
Suppose the cap is 7.5%. If the 10-year Treasury rate is 7%, the coupon rate by the formula would
be 8%(7%+1%).Since the cap is 7.5%, the coupon paid will be 7.5%.
A ‘CAP’ benefits the issuer, because it sets a limit to the interest rate paid
on the debt during a time of rising interest rates
FLOOR: Prevents the coupon from falling below a specified minimum rate
Eg. The coupon rate is calculated by formula:
Coupon rate =
10-year Treasury rate + 100 basis points, and the floor is 7%. If the 10-year Treasury rate is 7%,
the coupon rate by the formula would be 6.5%. But as the floor is at 7%, the coupon rate paid will
be 7% instead of 6.5%.
Dual-currency bond: Bonds that make coupon payments in one currency and pay the par
value at maturity in another currency
Currency option bond: Bonds that give the bondholder the right to choose the currency in
which he or she wants to receive interest payments and principal repayments
Domestic bond: Bonds issued in a particular country in local currency are domestic bonds
Foreign bond: they are issued by entities incorporated in another country
Euro Bond – Type of bond issued internationally, outside the jurisdiction of the country in
whose currency the bond is denominated
For example, Eurodollar and Euroyen bonds are denominated in US dollars and Japanese
yens, respectively
Unsecured : have no collateral; bondholders have only a general claim on the issuer’s assets
and cash flows
Covered bond: Debt obligation secured by a segregated pool of assets called the cover pool.
The issuer must maintain the value of the cover pool. In the event of default, bondholders
have recourse against both the issuer and the cover pool
Over Reserve
Subordination collateralization accounts Letter of Cash Collateral a/c
Surety Bond
credit
Callable bond: A bond containing an embedded call option that gives the issuer the right to buy the bond
back from the investor at specified prices on pre-determined dates
American : The issuer has the right to call a bond at any time after first call date
European : The issuer has the right to call a bond at any time only once on the call date
Bermuda: Issuer has the right to call bonds on specified dates following the call protection period
Putable Bonds: Bonds that give the bondholder the right to sell the bond back to the issuer at a
predetermined price on specified dates
The price of a putable bond will be higher than the price of an otherwise similar bond issued
without the put provision
If interest rates rise after the issue date, thus depressing the bond’s price, the bondholders can
put the bond back to the issuer and get cash
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Valuation - General
Valuation: Bond pricing is an application of discounted cash flow analysis.
General Principals of Valuation
use a discount rate that correspond to the timing of the future cash flows.
Steps of valuation of financial asset:
2
• Expected cash flow • Calculation of present
estimation value of expected cash
• In case of fixed income • Determination of an flows by discounting it
security – Coupon and appropriate discount with the discount rate.
principal repayment rate.
• Usually prevailing
market interest rate
1 3
For example, Suppose that another five-year bond has a coupon rate of 6% paid annually. If the
market discount rate is again 6%,
The price of a bond and market interest rate (i.e. discounting rate) have inverse
relation
At 8%
The bond price is
1,051.54 = 100 + 100 + 100+1000 inversely related to
(1+0.08)1 (1+0.08)2 (1+0.08)3 the market discount
rate. When the
At 10%
market discount rate
increases, the bond
1,000.00 = 100 + 100 + 100+1000
price decreases
(1+0.10)1 (1+0.10)2 (1+0.10)3
At 12%
The flat price usually is quoted by bond dealers. If a trade takes place, the accrued interest is
added to the flat price to obtain the full price paid by the buyer and received by the seller on the
settlement date. The settlement date is when the bond buyer makes cash payment and the
seller delivers the security
The required yield on the five-year, 4.50% bond priced at 104.750 is 3.449%
The estimated market discount rate for a four-year bond having the same credit quality is the
average of two required yields:
(2.856+3.449)/2 =3.1525%
Given an estimated yield-to-maturity of 3.1525%, the estimated price of the illiquid four-year,
4.50% annual coupon payment corporate bond is 1049.91
Hero MotoCorp has issued a $ 100,000 semi-annual face value Floating Rate Bond with 3 year
maturity, where the reference rate is LIBOR and a quoted margin of 75 bps.
Today the LIBOR rate is 6.25% and the required yield on such bond is 90 bps. Compute the price
of the bond?
Solution:
Face Value: $ 100,000,
N = 6 periods (3 years semi-annual)
Coupon Rate: (6.25%+0.75%)/2 = 3.50%,
Coupon Amount (PMT): 100,000x3.5% = $3500 (every 6 months),
Current Yield
Yield to Maturity
Yield to call
Yield to Put
Yield to worst
For example, a 10-year, 2% semiannual coupon payment bond is priced at 95 per 100 of par
value. Its current yield is 2.105%.
Yield to maturity: Annual return that an investor earns on a bond if the investor purchases the bond today
and holds it until maturity. It is the discount rate that equates the present value of the bond’s expected cash
flows until maturity with the bond’s price. Also called yield-to-redemption or redemption yield
The yield-to-maturity has three critical assumptions:
I. The investor holds the bond to maturity
II. The issuer makes all of the coupon and principal payments in the full amount on the scheduled dates
III. The investor is able to reinvest coupon payments at that same yield
For a callable bond, an investor’s yield will depend on whether and when the bond is called.
The yield-to-call can be calculated for each possible call date and price
If a bond carries a callable option, then Yield to Call and Yield to Maturity are calculated. Yield to
Call is valuation upto the next Call date at Call Price.
Yield to Worst:
The lowest of yield-to-maturity and the various yields-to-call is termed the yield-to-worst
Assumptions:
• Investor will hold the bond to the
assumed call date.
1 3
Solution:
Cash Flows = Rs.35, Rs.35 and Rs.1035
PV of cash flows using the spot rates
= (35/1.02) + (35/1.0252) + (1035/1.033)
= Rs.1014.8
Therefore, Arbitrage profit = 1020 – 1014.8 = Rs.5.20
They are usually calculated based on the theoretical spot rate curve.
(1+S2)2 = (1+S1) *(1+1y1y)
(1+S3)3 = (1+S1) *(1+S2) *(1+1y1y) or (1+S1)*(1+1y2y)2
(1 + S4)4
= (1 + 2y2y)2
(1 + S2)2
√ (1.06)4
= 8.04%
(1.04)2
A Z-spread (zero-volatility spread) is based on the entire benchmark spot curve. It is the constant
spread that is added to each spot rate such that the present value of the cash flows matches the
price of the bond.
Option-adjusted spread: The OAS, like the option-adjusted yield, is based on an option-pricing
model and an assumption about future interest rate volatility. Then, the value of the embedded
call option, which is stated in basis points per year, is subtracted from the yield spread. In
particular, it is subtracted from the Z-spread
OAS = Z-spread – Option value (in basis points per year)
103.74 = 10 + 110
(1.04+Z)1 (1.06+Z)2
www.proschoolonline.com 329
Business cycle: Characteristics
• Not periodic i.e. do not occur with the same duration or intensity
Contraction a.k.a.
Recession or
Trough – Lowest Depression
point (Extremely severe) –
economic activity is
Four phases declining
namely:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZvjh1dxz08
States that the shifts in the aggregate demand and supply are mainly due to expectations.
Level of optimism among businesses will lead them to either over-invest or under-invest. This
will cause the shift.
Highlights wages as the main problem. Wages are downward sticky, which means they are
difficult to decrease. Hence it is difficult to bring the economy back from recession
Policy prescription: increase aggregate demand through monetary and fiscal policy.
New Keynesian School: It adds that besides wages, other input prices (like materials) are also
downward sticky. Therefore, there will be additional barriers in restoring full employment
levels in an economy.
AUSTRIAN SCHOOL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZckAN1KYB5I
Outside Labor
Labor force
force
Discouraged
Employed Unemployed
Worker
Underemployed
Labor force participation rate = Labor force/ Working age pop x100
Unemployment Rate
Businesses are reluctant to lay off people due to constraints written in labour
contracts or out of a desire to keep good workers – during a crisis,
unemployment rises more slowly than it actually would due to this reluctance
• Another indicator used: managers cutting back on hours worked especially overtime is a clear sign of a
recession brewing
• Productivity measures also help in identifying the cyclical stage of the economy i.e. if output falls and
workers are still on the payroll, measured productivity has fallen indicating rough times
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMAELCrJxt0
Higher the inflation, lesser the same amount of money can buy
Value of money increase i.e. can buy more with same amount of
money
• Items included are fuels, farm products, metals, paper and pulp, machinery and
equipment, chemical products, etc.
• Differences in weights can be more dramatic as different sectors/industries are
dominant in different countries
• Cost-Push Inflation
• Unemployment rate is key – lower the unemployment rate, greater possibility that shortages will drive up
wages
• However economy will continue facing labour shortages long before unemployment reaches low figures
• Non- accelerating inflation rate of Unemployment (NAIRU) is the effective unemployment rate beyond
which markets gets pressured
• Productivity or output/hour is essential: greater each worker’s output/hour, lower prices businesses need to
charge to cover hourly labour costs
Demand-Pull Inflation
Such expectations have a self-sustaining character and may persist for decades
• Have turning points that are usually closer to those of the overall
economy
Coincident • Useful in identifying present state of economy
• Have turning points that take place later than those of the overall
economy
Lagging • Useful in identifying economy’s past state
Leading New orders for consumer goods and materials Tend to lead at upturns and downturns
Vendor performance, slower deliveries diffusion index Offers a clear signal of unfolding
demands on business
New orders for non-defense capital goods Helps capture business expectation
Building permits for new private housing units Helps to predict new construction activity
Lagging Ratio of consumer installment debt to income Consumers borrow only when they
are confident indicating an upturn
Change in consumer price index for services Inflation usually adjusts to the
cycle late especially stable service
sector