Flight International 2021-05

FlightGlobal.
com May 2021
How Max cuts

hurt Boeing
backlog
Feeling Making throwaway

aircraft affordable p32
supersonic
Will Overture be in tune with demand? p52
Hydrogen switch for
Fresson’s Islander p34
9
£4.99
770015 371327
Big worries Warning sign

We assess A380 Why NOTAM
outlook as last burden can
delivery looms baffle pilots
p14 p22
0 5
Comment
Prospects receding
Future
dreaming
Once thought of
as the future of air
travel, the A380 is
already heading
into retirement, but
aviation is keenly
focused on the
next big thing
Airbus
I
t has been a rapid rise and fall for on who you ask. As we report else- Hydrogen is not without its
the Airbus A380, which not so where in this issue, there are those issues, of course, but nonethe-
long ago was being hailed as the banking on supersonic speeds be- less it appears more feasible as a
future of long-haul air travel. ing the answer. power source for large transport
The superjumbo would be, The likes of Aerion and Boom Su- aircraft than batteries do at pres-
forecasts said, the perfect tool for personic view the ability to shave ent, even allowing for improving
airlines operating into mega-hubs significant time from journeys as a energy densities.
such as Dubai that were beginning unique selling point. However, there are others who
to spring up. While projects are likely to be see hydrogen through a differ-
But the planners at Airbus failed technologically feasible, to be able ent filter. They argue that so-
to take into consideration the to sell these new aircraft in signif- called sub-regional aircraft – the
efficiency gains available from icant volumes their manufacturers Britten-Norman Islander, among
a new generation of widebody will have to ensure that supersonic others – can be given fresh impetus
twinjets that allowed operators to flight is not merely the domain of if a fuel source can be found that is
open up previously uneconomical the ultra-rich. both cheap and non-polluting.
point-to-point routes. Although it would be an enor- In theory, such aircraft could
While the A380 limped on with mous stretch to imagine an Easy- link towns or cities current-
flagging sales – ultimately forcing Jet-operated supersonic jet, they ly under-served by any mode of
Airbus to axe the programme – it must be sufficiently cost-effective transport, or provide a more sus-
was assumed that the in-service to appeal to an audience wider tainable lifeline to island communi-
fleet would continue flying for than a handful of niche operators. ties (who may also be able to pro-
decades to come. Moreover, as aviation’s envi- duce their own hydrogen through
Then Covid-19 intervened and air- ronmental performance faces use of two abundant natural re-
lines reassessed their attachment ever-closer scrutiny, those super- sources: wind and waves).
to the double-decker. Outside the sonic jets will have to be as green At this early stage of develop-
fleets of a handful of operators – as possible to avoid any backlash. ment it is hard to say who will
British Airways, Emirates and Qan- Elsewhere, though, the prospect succeed, but what is clear is that
tas, for example – the A380 is unlike- of a cleaner air transport industry is aviation is on the cusp of a radical
ly to make much of a reappearance the raison d’etre of other develop- change where new technologies
in the post-pandemic world. ments. For many of these, hydro- could prove more disruptive than
What, then, is the future of air gen is seen as the fuel that enables ever the A380 was. ◗
transport? Clearly, that depends that sustainable future. See p14, p52
May 2021 Flight International 3

In focus
How pandemic reversed The learning power of PISA 18 Cost war of attrition 32
decade of growth 6 ICAO targets data overload 22 Fresson takes new direction 34
Mixed times for 737 Max 8 Canada backs Airbus tanker 24 Airbus warms to cryogenics 36
Electric Beaver charges on 10 US Army’s FLRAA plans 25 BA zeroes in on hydrogen 38
Taiwan feels the pressure 12 United sets diversity target 26 Opinion: A powerful change 39
Demise of double-decker 14 Renewed authority at CAA 28 View from the cockpit 41
52
Boom time Virgin Galactic’s delta-wing

civil jet will be capable of Mach 3.0
34
Boom Supersonic
Regulars Comment 3 Best of the rest 42 Straight & Level 74 Letters 76 Jobs 81 Women in aviation 82
4 Flight International May 2021

Contents
In depth
Open for business 46 Upwardly mobile 58 Sustainable strategy 65
Covid-19 has buffeted private The prospect of eVTOL aircraft The business aviation sector
aviation more lightly than its carrying passengers above is embracing alternative fuels
commercial cousin crowded cities is drawing near King Lear’s long reign 70
Upping the pace 52 In pole position 62 Looking back at Learjet’s
Are we ready for the return of Can the F1 factor give start-up six decades of style, speed
supersonic passenger services? Vertical Aerospace an edge? and sexiness
58
65 70
Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com
How Covid-19 pandemic

reversed decade of growth
The collapse in demand for air travel caused by crisis
AirTeamImages
has inevitably hit the orderbooks of Airbus and Boeing
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa

David Kaminski-Morrow London
But despite the differences in
presentation, the impact of the
pandemic is clear.
Airbus’s order total had risen
20,315
A
nalysis of the big two each year by an average of over Total orders for Airbus – a drop of 83
airframers’ backlog data 1,000 aircraft from the end of March since March 2020: 210 cancellations
over the year since the 2011 to the end of March 2020, the partly offset by 127 new orders
onset of the air trans- point at which the pandemic start-
port crisis shows overall orders ed to generate serious disruption
declined during the period – an to international air travel. from the A320neo, whose order
extraordinary contrast to their But its latest backlog data shows level fell by 98.
strong annual performances over that in the subsequent 12 months, The A220-300 also generated a
the previous decade. to the end of March 2021, order ac- small net gain in orders over the
Airbus’s total orders fell by 83, to tivity not only stopped its upward 12-month period.
20,315, while Boeing – which spent surge but actually reversed, with Analysis of the main cancellations
until November last year also wres- the overall order total slipping from shows 88 are attributed to Scandi-
tling with the grounding of the 737 20,398 to 20,315. navian budget carrier Norwegian, 17
Max – saw its total orders fall by to lessor BOC Aviation, 10 to each
around 800 aircraft. Reduced demand of AirAsia X and Gulf Air, and six for
It is tricky to make a perfect This reduction of 83 aircraft re- Turkish Airlines, while another 56
like-for-like comparison between sulted from 210 cancellations be- were classified as undisclosed.
the two manufacturers due to dif- ing only being partly offset by 127 Chinese operators and lessors
ferences in the way they present additional orders. had a strong presence among cus-
their order and delivery data on a Total long-haul aircraft orders tomers whose orders increased
monthly basis. For Boeing we have were down by 26 – comprising over the year.
instead relied on its stock market 17 A350s and nine A330s – while Eleven Chinese carriers – among
filings, the most recent of which those for short-haul jets fell by 57. them Air China, China Eastern
provides only approximate totals. But the performance of individ- Airlines, China Southern Airlines,
It also only includes figures for its ual models in the short-haul range Qingdao Airlines, Shenzhen Air-
in-production aircraft, leading to varied. The A321neo, which has lines and Sichuan Airlines – plus
an overall order total lower than proven a popular variant, increased lessors Bocomm, CMB Leasing
that of its rival, even though it has its net total by 46 aircraft – possi- and ICBC Leasing, are all listed
been in existence much longer. bly aided by upward conversions with higher order figures.

Airframers Backlogs
Meanwhile, on the other side of Of the 1,200 jets removed from

the Atlantic, Boeing’s total aircraft Boeing’s backlog over the past year,
orders tumbled by roughly 800 more than 1,000 were for 737 Max
jets over the last 12 months. aircraft, data shows: about 640 can-
The backlog losses reflect a pile cellations and more than 400 nega-
of cancellations only partly offset tive accounting adjustments.
by far fewer orders. Customers across the spectrum
At the end of March, Boeing’s have axed deals for the narrow-
total orders stood at about 17,000 body over the last 12 months.
aircraft, including 4,054 in its Major carriers like Air Canada,
backlog. That is down from the Copa Airlines, Virgin Australia and
17,835 total orders, including 5,049 WestJet scrubbed orders. More
in the backlog, that Boeing held at recently, Turkish Airlines cancelled
the end of March 2020, company 50 Max orders, converting 40 of
data shows. them into purchase options. Un-
certainty about Norwegian’s future
Uncompleted sales led Boeing to shift a portion of its
The decline over the past 12 months 92 Max orders into the ASC-606
reflects the removal of firm orders accounting category.
for about 1,200 jets, including 670 Lessors including AerCap, Air
cancellations and another 550 air- Lease, Aviation Capital Group, Avo-
craft that Boeing shifted from its lon, BOC Aviation, CDB Aviation,
backlog into an accounting bucket GE Capital Aviation Services and
reserved for sales that it suspects SMBC Aviation Capital have also
will not close. cancelled deals for the Max.
Boeing partly offset those loss-
1,200
es with new orders for 417 aircraft
during the last year.
The backlog slide contrasts sharp-
Robust cargo demand has driven ly with Boeing’s stream of sales
continued interest in 747-8F successes in the decade preceding
the March 2019 737 Max grounding. Jets removed from Boeing’s backlog
Total orders nearly doubled from over the past year – more than 1,000
9,597 at the end of 2008, to 18,229 of these represented by the 737 Max
The airframer has been man- at the end of 2018, equating to an
aging the impact of the pandem- average annual gain of some 860
ic by cutting its production rates orders, regulatory filings show. Boeing’s widebody orders have
and working to negotiate deferred Meanwhile, Boeing continued also suffered amid a pandemic that
deliveries to customers – and chief ramping up production of the has had an outsized impact on in-
executive Guillaume Faury has 737 Max, hitting a high of 52 jets ternational long-haul travel.
pointed out that the company has monthly in 2018. Widebodies accounted for about
experienced only a “low number” All that changed when an Ethi- 140 of the 1,200 aircraft erased
of cancellations. opian Airlines 737 Max crashed from Boeing’s books since March
Airbus’s total order figure of shortly after take-off in March 2019 2020, data shows. Of those, about
20,315 at the end of March 2021 – the second accident involving 30 are cancellations and the bal-
was just over double the level of the type. The regulatory grounding ance are accounting adjustments.
10,061 recorded 10 years earlier in that ensued would last 20 months, The company has, however, off-
March 2011. until November 2020. set a large part of those losses with
new orders.
Boeing’s net orders for the 767
increased by 36 aircraft over the
last year, likewise, net 747 orders
increased by five aircraft dur-
ing the last 12 months. The gains
on both programmes come amid
comparatively strong demand for
cargo jets.
The 777 programme slipped
by 67 and the 787 declined by 47
aircraft across the same period,
data shows.
The 787 has suffered the addi-
tional pressure of quality issues
Airbus
that became known in 2020 and

which led Boeing to halt Dream-
Norwegian was responsible for
liner deliveries between November
88 of Airbus’s cancellations
2020 and March this year. ◗

Two steps forward,

one step Max
Boeing’s rehabilitation of its troubled
narrowbody is gathering pace, but the
process has not been without setbacks
And in another example of how
Graham Dunn London the 737 Max’s troubles are not
yet completely behind it, Boe-
ing in April recommended that
A
fter a traumatic two years some airlines remove a subset of
for Boeing and its 737 the twinjet from service pending
Max programme, some of maintenance related to an un-
the airframer’s top cus- specified back-up power control
tomers have signed up for hun- system (see below).
dreds more of the narrowbodies, The news came as Boeing at-
delivering key endorsements as tempted to shift the narrative away
US carriers have been at the forefront
the type returns to service. from the jet’s earlier woes, caused
of returning the Max to service
Notably, Southwest Airlines’ by a pair of fatal crashes.
decision, disclosed on 29 March,
to replace 737-700s with 100 737 Gol followers
Max 7s came after follow-on Max A string of airlines have now regulators there, in late January,
orders from key customers Ryanair returned the Max to service, fol- cleared the type. TUI Airlines be-
and United Airlines. lowing Brazilian carrier Gol, which came the first European carrier to
But a further batch of Max order in December 2020 became the first restore Max service, in February,
cancellations in March – including operator to restore commercial followed in March by Icelandair,
Turkish Airlines (50) and lessors flights with the type. Czech carrier Smartwings and LOT
CDB Aviation (16) and China Globally, about 170 Max are back Polish Airlines.
Aircraft Leasing (26) – again high- in the skies, with airlines holding Romanian budget carrier Blue
lights the faltering nature of the another roughly 300 in storage, Air, meanwhile, became a new Max
recovery for both the jet itself and Cirium data shows. customer at the start of April after
the wider industry. While operators in North and taking delivery of the first of 10 of
In all, Boeing took in 196 orders in Latin America have led the charge, the type from Air Lease.
March, offset by 156 cancellations – European carriers too are re- Ryanair too will shortly become
the vast majority for the Max. turning the Max to service, after a new Max operator in Europe,
Deliveries stay steady, but fresh safety issue drives more jets into storage
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa In October 2020, the US production lines in recent
airframer said the company months, but more than 80
aimed to deliver about half examples completed first flight
Boeing has delivered almost of those stored aircraft before the during the grounding period,
90 737 Max since US regulators end of 2021, and the “majority” of making them part of the
lifted the type’s grounding the remainder in 2022. 450-strong inventory.
last November, putting the The US Federal Aviation US carriers Alaska Airlines,
airframer on track reach its goal Administration lifted the American Airlines, Southwest
of delivering half those jets by grounding in November 2020, Airlines and United Airlines have
year-end. with other regulators following in received the vast majority of
Production of the 737 Max subsequent months. recent Max deliveries – 67 jets,
continued during much of Boeing resumed 737 Max according to Cirium data.
the period that the type was deliveries in December, handing Boeing has also, since late last
grounded, resulting in a total of over 27 of the jets that month. year, delivered Max aircraft to
around 450 undelivered aircraft Another 62 have followed this airlines in Canada, Latin America
by the time the US regulator had year, up to 20 April. and Europe, data shows.
re-certificated the narrowbody Some of those aircraft But all the 89 Max that Boeing
for its operational return. might have rolled off Boeing’s has delivered since December are

737 Max Return
Neither has there been apparent

movement by two European cus-
tomers to firm Max order commit-
ments made during the grounding.
Those orders include Air Astana’s
deal to acquire 30 Max for its low-
cost unit, FlyArystan, and IAG’s
headline-stealing letter of intent,
revealed during the 2019 Paris air
show, to buy 200 Max.
Recovery has also been slower
in the Asia-Pacific region, home to
more than 20 Max operators before
the grounding.
In late February, Australia be-
came the first country in the region
to lift the Max’s grounding. Days
later, New Zealand followed suit,
though it stopped short of a blan-
ket approval.
Next steps
While no Australian carrier current-
AirTeamImages
ly operates 737 Max, two foreign
carriers – Singapore Airlines (SIA)
unit SilkAir and Fiji Airways – had
previously flown the type into the
country. Fiji lifted its grounding in
100
early April.
having been on the verge of taking Though Singapore authorities
its first Max when the aircraft was have not cleared the Max for com-
grounded in March 2019. mercial flights, SIA is preparing
The Irish carrier expects to for the type’s return. The carrier –
operate 16 737 Max 8-200s – a Order for 737 Max 7s placed by which has been integrating region-
high-density variant of the Max 8 – Southwest Airlines in March al unit SilkAir into its mainline op-
by the peak summer travel season. eration – in March began shuttling
That goal moved closer when the its six 737 Max back home from
European regulator in early April Aviation Administration lifted the storage in Australia, as a cabin
approved the variant. grounding, Ryanair firmed orders retrofit programme gets under way
Ryanair chief executive Michael for 75 Max, bringing its total com- for the type.
O’Leary has been a vocal propo- mitment to 210. Crucially, the Max remains
nent of the narrowbody: in Decem- Boeing may have secured the grounded in China, which was the
ber, shortly after the US Federal Max’s place with Ryanair, but the first country to ban flights of the
troubled state of the wider air- narrowbody. China’s civil aviation
line sector has raised uncertainty regulator has said that it has been
about its future with other Euro- discussing with Boeing a plan to
pean carriers. restore 737 Max services, but has
Chief among those is Norwegian not presented a timeline for any
in storage with airline customers, which, prior to the grounding, op- such move.
Cirium shows. erated 18 of the jets – more than China is a huge market for the
While many of those are parked any other European airline. But single-aisle: at the time of the
owing to current low levels of Norwegian has since embarked Max grounding, 12 Chinese oper-
demand, even where jets had on a major restructuring, ditching ators had nearly 100 of the jets in
been returned to service – for long-haul operations. It does not service, with another 200 orders,
example, those aircraft operated plan to use Max aircraft as part of Cirium data shows.
by American, Southwest and its initial operational ramp-up and Aside from China, two other
United – a subsequent safety has not commented on plans be- notable hold-outs in Asia are India
issue identified in early April yond the summer. and Indonesia, although the former
related to a back-up power Last year, the carrier said it was has now permitted overflights with
control unit has seen the aircraft cancelling 92 Max orders. Boeing the type. Globally, more than 160
pulled from flights for inspection has not actually removed those out of 195 civil aviation regulators
and potential modification. from its books but has shifted an have opened their airspace to the
The problem relates to 737 Max undisclosed number into a special Max, Boeing says.
that have been delivered recently, accounting bucket – known as
rather than those shipped before ASC-606 – that is reserved for Additional reporting by
the grounding. sales over which there is signifi- Alfred Chua in Singapore and
cant uncertainty. Jon Hemmerdinger in Tampa

Programme Propulsion
Electric Beaver charges ahead

Partners Harbour Air and Magnix team up with Swiss battery
developer H55 to advance DHC-2 electrification programme
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa
S
wiss battery company
H55 has been recruited by
Harbour Air and Magnix in
Harbour Air/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
an effort to develop and cer-

tificate an all-electric De Havilland
Canada DHC-2 Beaver seaplane.
The project is already well under
way, with Harbour Air, a Canadian
commuter airline based near Van-
couver, having flown a demonstra-
tor all-electric Beaver for the first
time in late 2019. That aircraft is
Demonstrator made its first flight
powered by Magnix’s Magni500
near Vancouver in December 2019
electric propulsion system.
Now, Harbour Air and Magnix,
which has offices in Seattle, have
enlisted H55 – a spin-off from the “We have been attracted by Har- Harbour Air sidelined one of its
Solar Impulse project – to provide a bour Air and Magnix’s vision, pio- Beaver seaplanes several years ago
battery system and other technolo- neering spirit and commitment to for the project. The six-passenger
gies for their electric Beaver. make aviation clean,” Borschberg aircraft’s Pratt & Whitney P-985
The trio intend to “certify the says. “The path to electric aviation Wasp Junior piston engine was re-
world’s first electric Beaver com- is complicated. But, at the same placed with the 750hp Magni500.
muter airplane through a sup- time, by joining forces our com- The Magnix-powered Beaver
plemental type certificate pro- bined experience will lead to quick- made its first flight on 10 Decem-
gramme”, they said on 20 April. er certification.” ber 2019, lifting off from the Fraser
“The companies will collaborate H55 has developed a “single- River near Vancouver. That event
together with Transport Canada engine battery pack system” de- was, according to Harbour, the
to certify the installation of the signed to power small aircraft. first flight of an all-electric com-
Magnix electric propulsion unit The pack has energy capacity of mercial aircraft.
and the H55 enhanced battery sys- 50kWh, produces 67hp (100kW) The team has since conducted
tem, transforming Harbour Air’s of maximum power, has 90min “additional flight tests to measure
seaplanes into an all-electric com- endurance and can be charged in and collect data on cruise perfor-
mercial fleet.” 1h, the company says. mance and take-off thrust efficien-
It is currently unclear whether the cy, electro-magnetic interference,
addition of H55 to the team means Bristell fashion battery management software log-
changes to the demonstrator’s H55 has integrated a battery system ic, noise levels and more”.
systems or configuration and the into a two-seat Bristell B23 Energic, As configured early last year,
development timeline. The compa- which made its first flight in 2019. the demonstrator Beaver carried
nies did not respond to a request It aims to acquire European Union lithium batteries with a power-to-
for more information. Aviation Safety Agency design and weight ratio of about 135Wh/kg – a
In January 2020, Harbour Air production certifications in 2021, relatively low-power-density sys-
chief executive Greg McDougall and to gain a type certificate for its tem, McDougall told FlightGlobal in
said he hoped to certificate the battery system by mid-2022. January 2020.
electric Beaver within two years, H55 does not specify what sys- He said better lithium batteries
possibly less. But he suggested it tem it is planning to develop for could, as of that time, generate up to
might need more advanced batter- the Beaver, but it will have to be 235Wh/kg. But, he added, 400Wh/
ies to be commercially viable. larger than that on the B23, due kg cells would likely be available by
H55 was launched in 2017 by a to the power requirements of the the time it starts commercial flights
three-person team that includes bigger aircraft. with an electric aircraft.
Andre Borschberg, who, along “Magnix, Harbour Air and H55 Magnix is involved in a sepa-
with Bertrand Piccard, helped will work on design optimisation rate project, alongside Spanish
found Solar Impulse, the organisa- for the electric propulsion unit, en- firm Dante Aeronautics, to install
tion behind the solar-powered air- ergy storage system and related a Magni500 in a Cessna Caravan
craft project. Borschberg is H55’s aircraft systems based on ongoing amphibian operated by Australia’s
executive chairman. flight testing,” the companies say. Sydney Seaplanes. ◗

Defence Tension
Taiwan feels the pressure
Fasttailwind/Shutterstock
Greg Waldron Singapore
Four J-10s were among group of

25 which neared island on 12 April
Taipei is accustomed to aerial incursions by Chinese military

assets, but increased formations are now probing its defences
Greg Waldron Singapore Beijing mounted an even bigger Chinese aircraft, instead of images
sortie on 12 April, with four H-6Ks, taken during intercepts.
14 J-16s, four J-10s, one KJ-500 “Assuming the Republic of Chi-
I
ncursions by Chinese military and two anti-submarine Y-8s. How- na Air Force [RoCAF] has indeed
assets into Taiwan’s air defence ever, this mission did not repeat stopped intercepting most of these
identification zone are nothing the dogleg route around Taiwan’s flights, the decision is smart,” he
new, as Beijing continues its ef- southern tip. says. “The RoCAF is never going
forts to establish a new air power J Michael Cole, Taipei-based sen- to be on the winning end of this
paradigm in the region. ior fellow with the Global Taiwan readiness competition, and trying
Taipei recorded 380 such inci- Institute in Washington DC, says to keep up with PLA flights would
dents in 2020: the highest number that China rapidly increased sor- accomplish little besides the optics
since 1996. But if that was a chal- ties in January 2020, following the of defending the homeland – that
lenging year, the recent appearance re-election of Taiwanese president is, until they can’t fly anymore be-
of two large Chinese formations Tsai Ing-wen. cause their pilots are exhausted,
means 2021 looks set to surpass it. “This isn’t solely a reaction by and their aircraft are grounded.”
Taiwan’s defence ministry details Beijing to visits by senior US offi- Apart from attempting to cow
every incursion, on Twitter, show- cials to Taiwan, but also a demon- Taiwan’s population, the flights also
ing the People’s Liberation Army stration to domestic constituents offer a valuable opportunity for Chi-
Air Force and People’s Liberation that the Chinese Communist Par- nese pilots to test their skills over
Army Navy aircraft involved, the ty is doing something, and that it, water and in a littoral environment.
course they flew, and the actions not Taipei, gets to set the tone,” Beijing’s bombastic Global Times
taken by its military. This invariably he says. “No doubt this stems in newspaper has a more menacing
involves tasking a combat air patrol part out of frustration that Beijing’s take. In a 13 April story about the
– generally with Lockheed Martin policy of ‘peaceful unification’ has 25-aircraft mission it stated that the
F-16s – issuing radio warnings, and been an abject failure.” exercises are nothing short of a re-
having “missile systems deployed hearsal for war – a warning to “Tai-
to monitor the activity”. Psychological warfare wan secessionists” and the USA.
On 26 March, 20 Chinese com- He adds that the flights can be Despite recent warnings from US
bat aircraft flew a southeasterly seen as a form of “psychological admirals about China’s threat to Tai-
course from the mainland, with warfare”, calibrated to intimidate wan, war does not seem imminent,
several continuing well beyond Tai- Taiwan’s population. Other ana- and mustering the massive forces
wan’s southern tip before taking lysts agree that making such flights necessary for an amphibious inva-
a north-easterly route, effectively seem commonplace could drive a sion would take time and attract
bracketing the island. sense of acceptance, or even com- attention from the USA and Japan.
The sortie involved four Xian placency, for example through Tai- Nonetheless, Taiwan defence ana-
H-6K bombers, 10 Shenyang J-16 pei deciding against having fight- lyst Kitsch Liao sees the recent sig-
and two Chengdu J-10 fighters, ers meet every interloper. nificant incursions as major exercis-
supported by a Shaanxi KJ-500 Roderick Lee, research director es that raise the stakes, create more
airborne early warning and control at the China Aerospace Studies opportunities for miscalculation,
aircraft, two Shaanxi Y-8 anti-sub- Institute, points out that in 2020 and offer no clear path for de-esca-
marine warfare aircraft and a single Taiwan’s defence ministry start- lation. “This is going to be increas-
Y-8 reconnaissance platform. ed exclusively using file photos of ingly dangerous,” he says. ◗

Demise of the double-decker

As delivery of the final A380 draws near, the question
is now how long the superjumbo will remain in service
Lewis Harper London as new-generation widebodies That said, formal decisions to

provided network flexibility and remove the type from fleets have
superior economics. actually been few and far between
A
lready considered on Exacerbating that fundamental is- since the Covid-19 crisis began.
borrowed time at many sue, reduced air travel demand dur- Air France is the only carrier to
airlines before the glob- ing the recovery from the Covid-19 have explicitly retired its A380s
al pandemic devastated crisis means carriers are likely to since the crisis began, although
international air travel, the Airbus need fewer large aircraft for some Lufthansa has all but condemned
A380’s demise has only been ac- time – and the A380 is particularly its 14 superjumbos to never fly
celerated by events over the past hard on the balance sheet when its again, without removing them from
12 months. While Emirates is wait- hundreds of seats are not full. future fleet counts.
ing for delivery of the final exam- Notably, the German carrier’s
ple, other airlines are looking to rid Still grounded plans suggest it will retain its
themselves of the double-decker. The vast majority of A380s re- 747-8s – some of which have been
Granted, dozens of Boeing 747s mained grounded at the end of kept in service through the pan-
are also heading for retirement March 2021, despite Cirium fleets demic – in preference to its simi-
sooner than expected, but none data showing that more than 61% larly aged A380s.
of those departing -400s could be of the world’s widebody aircraft Thai Airways International,
described as young. In contrast, were in service at that point. meanwhile, said on 12 March that
the superjumbo’s exit is super- Indeed, of the 233 A380s that were it was gauging market interest for
charged: the A380’s exodus from in service on the eve of the Covid-19 two of its six A380s. Middle East-
airline fleets is being discussed crisis on 1 January 2020, just 23 were ern carriers Etihad Airways and
less than 15 years after its first operating on 31 March 2021. Qatar Airways have also made
commercial flight, with many ex- “I think if all A380 operators similarly downbeat forecasts for
amples barely reaching double fig- could start over with a blank sheet the return of their superjumbos.
ures in terms of age. of paper, none would have the With the recovery of long-haul
Issues with the Airbus jet’s utility A380 in their post-pandemic fleet,” international travel expected to
beyond a few niche markets were says independent aviation analyst take some years, many carriers will
already well established pre-Covid, Brendan Sobie. be tempted to wait out some or all

Programme Retirement
persist for the next few years, at The type is therefore “an impor-
Delivery to Emirates of the last least: Emirates will continue to op- tant part of our fleet, and at the
example to be built is imminent erate by far the largest fleet of the minute our plans are to obviously
double-decker. fly [it again]”, he says, without dis-
Before the crisis, the Middle cussing a timeline.
Eastern carrier operated 115 A380s Pre-crisis, the Oneworld opera-
– essentially half of the world’s to- tor’s 12 A380s had been deployed
tal. Delivery of the last example to to destinations including Johan-
be built is imminent, with the jet in nesburg, Los Angeles, Hong Kong
March transferred to Airbus’s Ham- and Singapore.
burg site for outfitting. In Strickland’s view, BA’s relative-
Emirates president Tim Clark has ly young A380 fleet and its network
made it clear that, in his view, the dynamics, notably the number of
airline’s pre-pandemic business high-volume routes from London
model still holds up. That could Heathrow, mean the superjumbo is
mean A380s in Emirates’ colours likely to be useful to the carrier in a
well into the 2030s. “niche role”.
Qantas, too, has made positive
Unclear outlook noises about the prospect of even-
Nevertheless, it remains unclear tually flying its A380s again, not-
how many of the airline’s A380s ing their utility at slot-constrained
will return – and at what speed. airports and the fact that its fleet
John Strickland, director of JLS is largely written down.
Consulting, notes that “the sheer While the A380’s challenging
size and scale” of the carrier’s Du- economics are well documented,
bai hub “maximises the number of the superjumbo’s environmental
connections it can offer and traffic performance is increasingly weigh-
flows which it can manipulate to fill ing against its return.
up large amounts of capacity”. Carriers with heightened aware-
For Strickland, growth markets – ness of their sustainability are
particularly in Asia – and the “very unlikely to see a four-engined su-
important” point-to-point traffic perjumbo as the answer to any
to and from Dubai mean “Emirates challenges in that regard.
has a better opportunity than any Qatar Airways chief executive
other carrier to sustain large-scale Akbar Al Baker has been particu-
Airbus
A380 fleet capacity”, he says. larly outspoken on the type’s envi-

Rob Morris, global head of con- ronmental performance, although
sultancy at Ascend by Cirium, says perhaps with one eye on the fleet
of that period without their A380s, although it is “too early” to tell make-up of rival Emirates.
while allowing newer and/or small- whether Emirates can rebuild its
er twin-engined types to pick up network and volume, “it is already Environmental concerns
the slack. clear that even if they are able to In July 2020, Qatar Airways re-
“A look at the order books of erst- do so, there will be fewer A380s leased analysis showing that its
while A380 operators gives a hint of within the network since there A380s emitted 95% more carbon
what is to come – most operators will likely be some permanent loss dioxide (CO2) per block-hour on its
are betting on the Boeing 777-8/9, of demand and thus fewer routes Melbourne, New York and Toronto
787 and Airbus A350 to power their which can support the very largest routes than its A350s, and an aver-
future long-haul networks,” says aircraft in their fleet.” age of 80% more across all services.
Arvind Chandrasekhar, associate Despite those challenges, it is He describes the A380 as “one
partner at Lufthansa Consulting. not just Emirates making positive of the worst aircraft, when it
“Many already have the 777-300ER noises about the A380’s role in the comes to emissions, that is flying
in their fleets, which can take on the coming years. around today”.
role of long-haul workhorse.” British Airways chief executive Al Baker’s assessment reflects
As this plays out, one of the Sean Doyle said earlier this year the fact that the A380 belongs
dominant features of the A380’s that the A380 “works very well in a in the same class as several old-
existence pre-Covid looks likely to number of larger markets”. er-generation types when it comes
to CO2 emissions.
Richard Evans, senior consultant
“I think if all A380 operators could at Ascend by Cirium, points out that
the A380’s fuel burn and CO2 emis-
start over with a blank sheet of sions are “in the same class as the
777-300ER, 747-8 or A340-600” in
paper, none would have the A380 terms of CO2 per revenue passen-
ger kilometre (RPK), based on the
in their post-pandemic fleet” current average seat count of 501.
Newer twinjets such as the
Brendan Sobie Independent aviation analyst A330neo, A350 and 787 have

Programme Retirement
“roughly 15-25% lower emissions

per RPK”, he says. CO2 perfor-
mance is even worse when the
effects of the A380’s poor cargo
capacity versus its widebody rivals
are factored in, he adds.
Of the chances for further sec-
ond-hand sales – beyond Portu-
guese wet-lease specialist Hi Fly’s
now ended foray – most analysts
suggest that opportunities will be
few and far between.
The high cost of refitting the
Phuong D Nguyen/Shutterstock
superjumbo was already known,
but that factor gains additional
emphasis as the post-pandemic
passenger mix shifts away from
business-class travel and towards
leisure markets.
Rather than returning to service
Thai Airways is likely to remove the type from its fleet
with other carriers, Sobie reckons
most retired airframes are likely to
end up as spare parts. In or out? The status of the world’s A380s
“There will be a lot of aircraft
parted out, which will help support ● Air France (nine A380s in pre-pandemic fleet): The carrier
the remaining fleet and perhaps announced in May 2020 that it would retire its A380s immediately,
make it a bit less expensive for the rather than in 2022 as previously scheduled.
likes of Emirates, [Singapore Air- ● ANA (two): The operator took delivery of its third and final A380 in
lines] and Qantas to operate the October last year and immediately placed it into storage.
A380,” he states. ● Asiana Airlines (six): With the Star Alliance carrier in the process
of merging with compatriot Korean Air, details on future fleet plans
Secondary market have been vague.
Morris notes that he had always ● British Airways (12): Chief executive Sean Doyle says the type has a
believed “the secondary market future with the Oneworld carrier, with no retirements announced.
for such a large aircraft as the ● China Southern Airlines (five): The carrier is one of the few to have
A380 would be extremely chal- used A380s during the pandemic, largely on infrequent domestic and
lenging”, with few aircraft expect- international services. But in mid-April, an executive noted: “Maybe
ed to serve with carriers beyond it’s too large for the routes, and the operating cost is very high.”
the initial operators. ● Emirates (115): President Tim Clark says the type will play a key role
What was not expected, howev- in the airline’s fleet for some time.
er, was the “dramatic demand dis- ● Etihad Airways (10): Chief executive Tony Douglas was quoted in
location” that is causing airlines to UAE media in early March as saying it was “very likely that we won't
remove aircraft from their opera- see [A380s] operating with Etihad again”.
tional fleets early. ● Hi Fly (one): The Portuguese wet-lease operator withdrew its
Morris continues: “Curiously, the former Singapore Airlines A380 from service in mid-December 2020,
pandemic may in the fullness of after less than three years of use.
time permit a few aircraft to transi- ● Lufthansa (14): The German carrier has not explicitly said its
tion, since A380 values have been A380s will not fly again, but has repeatedly downplayed the type’s
driven down so quickly. chances of a return.
“This may mean that in a ● Korean Air (10): See Asiana.
post-pandemic world the few ● Malaysia Airlines (six): The carrier’s plans for its superjumbo fleet
operators who can support such have been in limbo for years amid continued financial strife.
large aircraft in their network may ● Qantas (12): Chief executive Alan Joyce has said the type is likely
see opportunities to acquire the to fly in Qantas colours once a recovery in international markets is
aircraft at a very low price, and sufficiently advanced.
then complete reconfiguration ● Qatar Airways (10): The Oneworld carrier’s chief executive Akbar Al
and maintenance.” Baker has indicated that the operator will retain half of its A380s, but
According to Chandrasekhar, the that even those are unlikely to fly for several years.
A380s that survive the Covid-19 ● Singapore Airlines (19): The Star Alliance carrier said in November
crisis will be reduced to operating last year that seven of its 19 A380s would not return to service. It later
“some service on selected routes confirmed that a cabin upgrade programme would continue for the
over the rest of this decade as four aircraft in its remaining fleet of 12 jets that were yet to gain the
global air traffic recovers”. new configuration.
But he concludes: “A decade ● Thai Airways International (six): Reports suggest a wider
from now, we may see more A380s restructuring of the airline is likely to see A380s removed from Thai’s
in aviation museums than in com- fleet permanently.
mercial passenger service.” ◗

Airbus
Mock-up will assess changes needed
for long-range performance
The learning power of PISA

Derisking efforts for A321XLR include modified fuselage
section to help with integration of narrowbody’s systems
David Kaminski-Morrow London Modifications to be considered for workers to aid manufacturing of
for the accelerator naturally in- the flight-test aircraft as well as the
clude the large rear centre tank heads-of-versions for customers.
O
ne of the Airbus A321neo which will provide the fuel capac- The A321XLR development ef-
fuselage sections previ- ity for the A321XLR’s range, as well fort is being supported by oth-
ously intended for deliv- as a new 300 litre (80USgal) waste er demonstrators and validation
ery to South American water tank, electronic rudder sys- platforms aimed at de-risking the
operator LATAM has instead been tem, modified fuel lines and hy- programme, which remains a cen-
supporting the A321XLR develop- draulics, and changes to the main tral part of Airbus’s post-crisis re-
ment programme as a system inte- landing-gear area. covery strategy.
gration platform. Virtual visualisation technology is Another A321neo fuselage sec-
Originally a standard A321LR cen- used to explore the fuselage in 3D tion, the nose of MSN9893, has
tre and aft section, the fuselage of prior to the physical fitting of the been adapted, at a new industrial
MSN8531 was withdrawn from the components in the demonstrator. maturity centre on the Saint Naz-
Hamburg Finkenwerder production aire site, into a physical mock-up to
line and effectively de-equipped – Major modifications support changes to the A320neo
its pre-installed systems removed “The PISA demonstrator embodies family – including the XLR.
in order to fit new ones specifically the end-to-end process from de- It is already being used to test in-
for the A321XLR. sign changes to industrialisation of tegration of a new main instrument
Airbus calls the fuselage section a the A321XLR,” says the airframer. panel which will become a stand-
“pre-industrial system accelerator” “It is not just for the ramp-up of the ard for the family.
– or PISA – a hybrid capable of sup- XLR but also for future adaptations “Pre-final assembly line operators
porting both A321LR and A321XLR and major modifications.” in Saint Nazaire are now able to un-
interior configurations on the main Airbus head of XLR demonstra- derstand this new [panel] structure
deck while specially-developed tors Frank Dohrmann, who leads the in real factory conditions with the
systems for the latter model are in- PISA project, adds that the demon- installation and ergonomics vali-
stalled on the lower deck. strator will provide a training facility dation on the physical mock-up,”
Harness the power of analytics with

CAE RiseTM IRU PRUH H΍HFWLYH SLORW WUDLQLQJ

Programme Development
says Denis Abraham, of Airbus’s

single-aisle value-stream mapping A320neo steered towards full electric rudder
programme management.
Other evolutionary changes Airbus is aiming to replace the mechanical rudder controls on
will be integrated initially into the A320neo-family aircraft, switching to a full electric rudder system by
mock-up, he says, allowing the early 2024.
manufacturer to identify risks and The modification will coincide with the entry into service of the
potential disruption as well as op- long-range A321XLR, which is being developed with the “E-rudder”
timise logistics and tooling place- architecture in mind.
ment ahead of production. While the initial delivery had been intended at the end of this year,
“This preliminary work will also with an A320neo powered by CFM International Leap-1A engines,
help to achieve quality objectives Airbus says it is “reviewing the introduction scenario” given the
more easily,” says Abraham. disruption from the pandemic.
A321XLR airframe leader Martin The E-rudder will become standard on the A319neo, A320neo and
Schnoor says the nose mock-up A321neo range. But it will not be fitted to conventional A320-family
will be used to analyse structural jets, nor will it be available as a retrofit.
reinforcement for the new aircraft Under the current A320 and A320neo fly-by-wire architecture,
owing to “different loads” on the seven computers – two flight-augmentation computers, two elevator-
forward section, as well as improve- aileron computers, and three spoiler-elevator computers – handle the
ments to systems for cabin comfort. flight-control surfaces.
But although the flight-augmentation computers provide input for
Industrial interfaces yaw damping, rudder travel limit and trim, the rudder system retains
“The [mock-up] gives us the op- mechanical linkages between the pedals in the cockpit and the
portunity to bring all modifications hydraulic rudder actuators.
together from [the airframe, sys- The E-rudder programme will replace the mechanical interface with
tems and cabin areas] to confirm an electrical one, saving some 40kg (88lb) in weight by enabling the
the industrial interfaces,” he adds. removal of several fixtures and three computer units.
Airbus is intending to put the Both flight-augmentation computers and one of the spoiler-elevator
A321XLR into service in 2023, and computers will be withdrawn, along with the yaw-damper and rudder-
the aircraft is approaching the trim actuators, and the travel limiter unit.
assembly phase for major struc- Conversion to the E-rudder system involves installing a new rudder-
tural components. pedal unit in the cockpit, new rudder-position sensors, and a back-up
Demonstrators ranging from control module.
basic wooden replicas – to veri- The rudder will be controlled through the two elevator-aileron
fy accessibility for electrical, me- computers, for normal law, and the two remaining spoiler-elevator
chanical, bleed-air and piping in- computers, plus the back-up module, in direct law.
stallations – to advanced digital Airbus will also reconfigure control of the inboard spoilers, which
augmented reality and 3D-printed were previously tied to the third spoiler-elevator computer.
parts have all been employed to The primary flight-control computers will have updated hardware
support the XLR’s development. and software, and software changes will be made to several others,
“Early physical demonstrators while the rudder-actuation systems will be modified.
and the virtual demonstrators en- “Ramp-up will be done over 2023 to standardise E-rudder by early
able us to validate our design deci- 2024,” says Airbus, adding that the simpler system will also save fuel
sions and close these topics,” says and reduce maintenance costs.
A321XLR programme head Gary Suppliers including Collins Aerospace, Liebherr, Safran and Thales
O’Donnell, adding that most of this are participating in the equipment updates for the programme.
work was completed in 2020. Airbus adds that no relocation of the computers in the avionics bay
The full-scale production stand- will be necessary.
ard demonstrators will support in-
dustrial process maturity, training,
and “help secure our ramp-up”,
he says, and will also be used by
maintenance and customer-sup-
port teams to develop manuals and
technical documentation.
“All these demonstrators help us
to observe the systems, activities,
Karolis Kavolelis/Shuttertock
workflows and premises under real

conditions at an early stage before
start of production,” says head of
XLR equipping Hauke Delmas.
“They provide a protected space
for learning and further develop-
ment. It is therefore possible to
learn from mistakes on the mock- Updated system will enter service
ups without endangering produc- in 2024 on Neo-family aircraft
tion or safety.” ◗

PAID CONTENT
Ready for something different?

World Defense Show – which debuts in Riyadh in Saudi Arabia
in March next year – promises to be an industry event like none
other. We find out what will set it apart from the rest
A
fter a year in which there event alone. The location for WDS and Rolls-Royce are among those
have been few opportu- – a short drive north of the capital who have confirmed, and Ormrod
nities for industry profes- – is an 800,000sq m exhibition site, expects to announce more in the
sionals to meet in person, inspired by Saudi Arabian archi- coming months. “Our international
the prospect of a brand new bi- tectural styles, with two halls of a reach is growing,” he says.
ennial global defence exhibition in combined 58,000sq m, plus its own Like other defence shows, WDS
early 2022 is doubly enticing. For land demonstration track, 2.7km will be multi-sector, with aerospace,
it will take place in a nation that is runway, a firing range, 120,000 sq naval, land, cyber and satellite as-
not only one of the most dynam- m inner court yard and dedicated sets on display. Riyadh’s inland lo-
ic markets in the world, but going airspace for flying displays. cation presents an opportunity for
through remarkable economic, po- visitors to experience how interop-
litical, and social change. Unique advantage erable technology works in prac-
The World Defense Show, which “We have had the unique advan- tice – even on platforms that are
was founded by the Kingdom’s tage of being able to design this not physically at the show. Attend-
General Authority for Military In- from a blank sheet of paper,” says ees, for instance, might be able to
dustries (GAMI) and is scheduled WDS chief executive officer Shaun stand in the “command and control
for 6-9 March in Riyadh, Saudi Ormrod, an events veteran who centre” of a ship as a military ex-
Arabia, will be an event unlike any previously headed the company ercise takes place, thanks to virtual
other – both in its setting, and that runs the Farnborough Air- reality, says Ormrod.
also in the context in which it will show. He and his Saudi colleagues The reason for choosing the de-
be staged. The Gulf kingdom – for have spent two-and-a-half years sert site was that “we wanted an
decades one of the biggest oil pro- conceiving the event, which was area that we had complete control
ducers and in a strategically vital formally launched in July last year. over”, says Ormrod. That means
region – is diversifying its economy Ormrod has recruited 40 staff that – in addition to benefiting from
by opening its door to investors and is adding 20 more. His sales a bespoke venue – visitors will also
and visitors, as it transforms its de- representatives in China, France, appreciate a full day’s air display
fence industrial sector. the UK, and the USA are working schedule, with those being enter-
As far as the setting is concerned, on signing up major international tained in 60 hospitality suites on
few trade shows can boast an ex- exhibitors: Chinese defence agen- the first and second floors enjoying
hibition site purpose-built for that cy CATIC, missiles house MBDA, a panoramic view of static and sky.

PAID CONTENT
But what about, what is for some, international visitors and for busi-
the bane of the busy air show – the ness. Importantly, the visa process
screaming background noise of a is much simpler than it used to be
jet fighter interrupting a meal or for most nationalities.
meeting with its airborne display?
It may be, as Americans term it, Great expectations
the “sound of freedom”, but amid Many of Ormrod’s team are experi-
a delicate business negotiation, it enced in every element of airshows
is often less appreciated. For those around the world. This, he says,
in the hospitality suites, however, it helps with understanding visitors’
will not be a problem; each room is needs. “We are learning for our-
insulated to reduce external noise. selves what the expectations are.
WDS has the backing of both na- We are already doing the dry run
tional military champion Saudi Ara- – our priority is to ensure a smooth
bian Defense Industries, or SAMI, customer journey from start to fin-
and GAMI, the General Authority ish,” he says. He says those con-
Chief executive Shaun Ormrod
for Military Industries, which is the sidering exhibiting are welcome in
has a wealth of experience
regulator and enabler for the king- Riyadh for a tour of the show site,
dom’s defence sector, and charged which is under construction with a
with realizing a national commit- view to completion later this year.
ment to have local companies sup- generation of young Saudis. This World Defense Show has an-
plying 50% of Saudi armed forces will involve partnerships with in- nounced dates for 2024 and 2026.
procurement by 2030. ternational partners, prepared to “We are making it crystal clear we
This pledge is part of Saudi Ara- invest in the kingdom’s burgeoning are here to stay,” remarks Orm-
bia’s Vision 2030 strategy, a vision aerospace and defence sector. rod. “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
spearheaded by Crown Prince HRH One of the unique selling points is taking its rightful place on the
Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, of WDS, says Ormrod, will be the world stage.” As for what visitors
which is designed to diversify Sau- opportunity for exhibitors to have can expect, Ormrod has no doubt
di Arabia from an economy reliant “meaningful, coordinated engage- what the reaction of many will be:
on exports of oil and other natural ment with the Saudi government “I fully expect to be standing there
resources into a “global investment and defence community”. If visiting as people leave and hear them say:
powerhouse”, turning the kingdom companies are willing to “align their ‘Wow! That was different!’” ◗
into a hub for trade between the strategy with Vision 2030, there
three continents of Africa, Asia, will be opportunities aplenty”, he ● World Defense Show will
and Europe. insists. “I make no excuses for mak- be held in the presence of
The “rebalancing” of defence ing this one of our key USPs.” Saudi Arabia’s key leadership,
spending will involve nurturing Ormrod says he is aware that international delegations and
an ecosystem of small and me- many defence professionals may prominent industry decision-
dium-sized enterprises, provid- not have visited Saudi Arabia makers from around the world.
ing job opportunities and career and not know what to expect;. To learn more about the show, visit
routes within the country to a new The country, he says, is open for www.worlddefenseshow.com.

Jon Flobrant/Unsplash
Briefing packages for flightcrew can
include hundreds of notices to airmen
ICAO targets information overload

Organisation aiming to eliminate 400,000 NOTAMs in 2021, as
seven-fold increase over 20 years leaves pilots overwhelmed
David Kaminski-Morrow London advising of the runway closure was global campaign to overhaul the
on the eighth, towards the middle NOTAM system.
of the second page of NOTAMs. Zee presented the example of
T
he overflight of a heavily- Although the entry included a a typical briefing package for an
occupied taxiway by an Air- ‘NEW’ marker in red with aster- A330 flight from Munich to Singa-
bus A320 at San Francisco isks, and bold text for ‘RWY’ and pore, containing 24 pages of op-
International airport illus- ‘CLSD’, the inquiry said: “This lev- erational information – fuel, route
trated the serious risks of overload- el of emphasis was not effective in and weather data, all clearly laid
ing pilots with NOTAMs, an ICAO prompting the flightcrew members out – followed by some 120 pages
forum has heard, as the organisa- to review [or] retain this informa- of NOTAMs.
tion launches an effort to reduce tion, especially given the NOTAM’s
the volume of their use. location, which was not optimal for Routine occurrence
The Air Canada jet’s crew, intend- information recall.” “This is not a special case,” he says.
ing to land on runway 28R at night It points out that a psychological “This is routinely happening. Every
in July 2017, inadvertently lined up characteristic called the ‘serial po- flight, every day, is getting a very
with the parallel taxiway C, which sition effect’ results in people being big package of NOTAMs.”
was occupied by four aircraft – only better able to recall the first and Finnair A320 captain Lauri Soini
executing a go-around at 100ft af- last items in a series than those in points out that each page will con-
ter overflying the first of them. the middle. tain some 10-15 NOTAMs.
US National Transportation Safety “The failure to see this NOTAM “For every single one we should
Board investigators found the pilots was, in essence, the primary cause read, understand and decide if it’s
misidentified the taxiway because of this serious incident. That was a relevant for our flight,” he says. But
they had not recalled the closure of wake-up call,” Mark Zee, founder of even reading at a rate of just 5s
runway 27L contained in a NOTAM. OpsGroup and a former pilot and each, he notes, the process could
The crew’s flight-release package air traffic controller, said during an take over 90min, whereas crews
was 27 pages long and the notice ICAO event on 8 April initiating a might only have 20min for pre-
flight briefing.
Twenty years ago the total brief-
“A NOTAM should never be active ing package would have been “us-
able” at fewer than 20 pages, says
for more than three months, and Soini, but the increase in NOTAM
data has been “staggering”.
never be replaced more than once” Some 1.7 million NOTAMs were
published in 2020, ICAO says, with
ICAO about 35,000 remaining active on

Pilots Workload
any given day. While this number Only 19 out of 42 Asia-Pacific government agencies… some of
was a 5% reduction from the pre- countries and administrative regions which have no, or very little, knowl-
vious year, as a result of the air have introduced quality-manage- edge of the requirements of issuing
transport crisis, there has been a ment systems, says ICAO Asia-Pa- a NOTAM,” she says.
seven-fold increase over the past cific regional officer Shane Sumner, “More often than not they’d want
two decades. and there is evidence of poor up- a message to go out as they had
“A NOTAM should never be keep in implementing states. formulated it, and to remain in
active for more than three months, Just 12 countries have estab- force much longer than the stipu-
and never be replaced more than lished formal arrangements with lated standard.”
once,” ICAO says. Currently, some data originators and, among the ICAO’s campaign also aims to
are being replaced “multiple times, latter, there is “insufficient knowl- look at the quality of NOTAMs.
sometimes for years” – and this edge and awareness” of regula- While a briefing package for a
will not necessarily be highlight- tions, he adds. long-haul international flight might
ed on its monitoring tool because contain more than 100 pages of
they do not individually exceed Non-compliant data NOTAM information, “Findings have
the 90-day limit. This situation is exacerbated by shown that 20% of these will be old
Its “NOTAM2021” campaign – aeronautical information services’ NOTAMs, exceeding their three-
which will continue with bi-month- being frequently afforded “only month applicability period,” it says.
ly sessions – will initially focus on low status” within civil aviation au- The campaign is being support-
eliminating the number of outdated thorities, says Sumner, and not be- ed by international pilot federation
NOTAMs still circulating in the sys- ing empowered to refuse to accept IFALPA.
tem due to “widespread misuse”. It raw or non-compliant data provid- “There have been numerous ef-
estimates that it could potentially ed at late notice. forts through the years to improve
eliminate over 400,000 old notices ICAO Eastern and South African the system, but none has been suc-
this year and prevent recurrence. regional officer Keziah Ogutu refers cessful,” says the federation. “This
During the launch event, several to similar issues on the continent, year will be different.”
ICAO regional offices underlined including inadequate infrastructure Improvements could include ba-
problems of inadequate regulatory for information dissemination, lack sic changes centred on the use of
oversight and slow implementation of expertise, and poor training. abbreviations and the use of letter
of quality-management systems for “A lot of our NOTAMs come from case, along with aspects of sorting
aeronautical information services. external service providers including and filtering, IFALPA says. ◗
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Defence Acquisition
Canada backs Airbus for

tanker replacement
AirTeamImages
Nation’s four-strong fleet of
A310s is set to be retired
A330 MRTT clear to pursue Polaris successor requirement

unopposed, as Ottawa rejects Boeing’s rival offer of KC-46
Craig Hoyle London company says. The air force cur- Its analysis phase for the STTC re-
rently operates two examples as quirement began in March 2018.
dedicated tankers and two in the The new tanker/transport fleet
T
he Airbus Defence & Space strategic transport role. will be introduced at Trenton air
A330 multi-role tanker “The STTC programme looks to base in Ontario, with Ottawa ex-
transport (MRTT) is the replace the RCAF CC-150 Polaris pecting IOC to be declared in
sole candidate to have tanker fleet with a multirole aircraft 2028-2029. Full operational capa-
been approved to bid in a process capable of conducting a wide range bility should follow by 2030-2031.
to replace the Royal Canadian Air of missions including NATO and Airbus Defence & Space Canada
Force’s (RCAF’s) A310 fleet, after NORAD operations, from air-to-air president Simon Jacques notes the
a rival offer of the Boeing KC-46 refuelling to strategic government A330 MRTT “is certified to operate
Pegasus was rejected by Ottawa. of Canada transport and aeromed- with [most] western receivers, in-
An invitation to qualify pro- ical evacuation,” Airbus says. cluding Canada’s current fighters,
cess for Canada’s Strategic Tanker Canada in July 2020 declared its transport and mission aircraft.”
Transport Capability (STTC) pro- A310 tankers as having attained The company is already supply-
ject was launched on 12 February. initial operational capability (IOC) ing Canada with a 17-strong fleet
Airbus announced on 1 April that for NORAD missions – its air force of C295 fixed-wing search and res-
this activity “has identified the had previously employed Lockheed cue aircraft. The service’s first lo-
A330 MRTT as capable of meeting Martin C-130H/Ts for such duties. cally-designated CC-295 Kingfisher
the project’s requirements”. “This new aircraft will improve the was delivered to its Comox air base
A draft request for proposals to flexibility, responsiveness, interop- in British Columbia last September.
replace the nation’s four A310s – erability with allied nations, com- Boeing confirms that its STTC
a type named the CC-150 Polaris munications security, and self-pro- candidate will not be considered
in Canadian service – is anticipat- tection of the Royal Canadian Air for the next project phase.
ed in the third quarter of 2021, the Force’s current fleet,” Ottawa says. “Boeing was informed by the gov-
ernment of Canada that the KC-46
did not qualify for the country’s
“This new aircraft will improve Strategic Tanker Transport Capa-
bility project,” the company says.
the flexibility, responsiveness and “While disappointed in the decision,
we will remain ready to bring the full
self-protection of the current fleet” depth and breadth of Boeing to our
offer in the event Canada decides to
Canadian government reopen the bidding process.” ◗
Download the 2021

IN ASSOCIATION WITH
Wo r l d A i r Fo r c e s R e p o r t
FlightGlobal.com/waf

Bell Rotocraft Development
Bell is offering a version of its V-280

Valor tiltrotor for the requirement
US Army accelerates FLRAA plans

Combined awards to rival bidders for Black Hawk replacement
to speed decision on engineering and manufacturing phase
Garrett Reim Los Angeles army’s Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk “That is one of the key differenti-
utility helicopters. Bell and the ators that we’re going to be able to
Sikorsky-Boeing team are respec- provide on the [army’s Future Ver-
B
ell and a Sikorsky-Boeing tively offering refined versions of tical Lift] programmes,” says Glenn
team have been awarded their V-280 Valor tiltrotor and SB-1 Isbell, the company’s vice-president
contracts worth a combined Defiant co-axial rotor/pusher pro- of rapid prototyping and manufac-
$577 million to accelerate peller technology demonstrators. turing innovation. “We’re able to
preliminary design review work on The US Army has previously build things in such a different way.”
their Future Long Range Assault said it expects to launch the pre- Isbell says the company has al-
Aircraft (FRLAA) candidates for liminary design review phase in ready achieved a 40% cost reduc-
the US Army. the second quarter of fiscal year tion when producing the V-280’s
In particular, the service wants an 2023. The rivals are expected to mast part, and cut lead-time by
early analysis of requirements for fly their FLRAA candidates for 80%, from 12-18 months to less
the US Special Operations Com- the first time by the third quarter than 90 days. It has also reported
mand, as well as medical evacu- of FY2024, with the army wanting similar results for a variety of air-
ation missions and features sup- its first unit equipped with the new frame parts.
porting export. rotorcraft by FY2030. Bell is also aiming to develop
“This strategy will enable the more streamlined ways of produc-
winning offeror to complete both Digital engineering ing its aircraft.
air vehicle and weapons system Meanwhile, Bell says that by em- “Our core philosophy is to sim-
preliminary design reviews in less bracing digital engineering and plify the manufacturing process, to
than a year after the programmat- manufacturing technologies it will remove as many steps as we can,”
ic contract award, advancing the be able to cut the cost and lead- says Isbell. “We’ll then improve
schedule to an earlier Milestone B time on rotorcraft parts by dou- what’s left and put digital control
decision,” the army says. This “will ble-digit percentages. capabilities in, so that we can mon-
provide more time for detailed de- The company opened its new itor how the part is being built in its
sign, building and testing of proto- Manufacturing Technology Center lifecycle. The whole idea of making
type air vehicles”, it adds. in Fort Worth, Texas on 25 March, a batch of parts and then finding
A Milestone B decision repre- in support of pitches for FLRAA out they’re bad is the exact prob-
sents the point at which a service and the army’s Future Attack Re- lem we’re trying to solve.”
recommends a design to enter the connaissance Aircraft need. Parts For example, the company has
engineering and manufacturing de- for the V-280 and 360 Invictus previously manufactured a paral-
velopment phase. winged helicopter are now being lel gear by using six different ma-
Bell has received a competitive worked on within the 13,000sq m chines. Now, it has found a way of
demonstration and risk-reduction (140,000sq ft) facility. making the part using one machine,
Phase II contract worth $293 mil- Bell says it has been able to use with just one setup.
lion, with the Sikorsky-Boeing team digital engineering software pro- “We’ve been able to significant-
securing $284 million. grams and new equipment to sim- ly reduce the amount of steps re-
The FLRAA programme is intend- plify its manufacturing process and quired to build the part at the same
ed to deliver a replacement for the eliminate errors. level of quality,” Isbell says. ◗

Flightcrew Recruitment
United sets pilot diversity target

US carrier offers scholarship scheme and improved access to
AirTeamImages
funds in effort to increase minority representation in cockpit
Pilar Wolfsteller Las Vegas pilots in a decade. In February in the third quarter, with gradua-
2020, the carrier bought a flight tions in the first half of 2022. Unit-
school in Phoenix, Arizona, which ed expects to enroll 100 students in
U
nited Airlines will train it renamed United Aviate Academy, the programme this year.
5,000 new pilots in the where training is to take place. Recommitting to a training initia-
next 10 years through its The coronavirus crisis and tive while the coronavirus pandem-
“Aviate” recruitment pro- near-shutdown of the industry in ic is still raging and a full recovery is
gramme, with at least half of those 2020 threw those plans off track, years away may seem counter-in-
to be women and people of colour. as carriers slashed networks, sent tuitive, but for airlines like United
The Chicago-based carrier on aircraft into long-term storage and the focus is on the future, not the
6 April said that it and JP Morgan trimmed staff. immediate present.
Chase will each provide $1.2 million Indeed, recent forecasts suggest
in scholarships this year to help fi- that while demand for crews in the
nance crew training for candidates
that might otherwise struggle with
the cost. Additionally, United will
partner with financial institutions
to give Aviate’s students access to
5,000
Number of new pilots United aims to
near term is clearly depressed, fur-
ther out, a shortage still looms.
Last November, Canadian train-
ing and simulator provider CAE
raised eyebrows when it said the
loans for flight training, which can train in next decade, with at least 50% industry would need as many as
cost $100,000 or more. to be women or people of colour 264,000 new pilots worldwide in
The programme is designed to the next 10 years.
provide United with a solid pilot Though that figure spurred push-
pipeline over the coming years, as United’s commitment to ensure back from the pilot community, the
the industry works to head off an half of pilot candidates are female same general view is supported by
expected shortage of cockpit crew. or minority is notable. Only about a recent study published by man-
“We had a pilot shortage before 5% of all commercial pilot certifi- agement consultancy Oliver Wy-
the pandemic. After the pandemic cate holders in the USA are female, man, which says that a shortage
we will still need qualified, excep- while non-white pilots compose a is still looming, even if its onset is
tional people on our flightdecks, sliver of the ranks. delayed by the pandemic.
and this is a way to get them there “My path [to aviation] was circui- “The most important question is
faster,” says Carole Hopson, a first tous,” says Hopson, for whom avia- not whether a pilot shortage will
officer at United, and a woman tion is a third career. She began pi- re-emerge, but when it will occur
of colour. She adds that the pro- lot training when she was 36 years and how large the gap will be be-
gramme gives diverse candidates a old. ”I don’t want the next genera- tween supply and demand,” the
“career pathway that’s visible”. tion of people who look like me to consultancy says.
Prior to the announcement, Unit- wait that long.” Oliver Wyman says the global
ed had already indicated that it is United wants to ensure it taps gap between supply and demand
ready to resume hiring flightcrew: into a “deep talent pool” of candi- will be at least 34,000 pilots by
the airline intends to take on 300 pi- dates who have the aptitude and 2025, and possibly 50,000.
lots who either had a new-hire class desire to become commercial pi- Key contributors to the short-
date that was cancelled, or who had lots. It will partner with historically age are an ageing workforce – and
received a conditional job offer that black colleges and universities, and mandatory retirement at 65 – plus
was rescinded after the huge drop with high schools, to identify and the duration, difficulty and, above
in passenger demand last year. recruit top talent early, it says. all else, high cost of pilot training
United launched Aviate in 2019, The Aviate Academy plans to be- that deters many from pursuing it
aiming to train up to 10,000 new gin training a class of 20 students as a career. ◗

Renewed authority
While the UK’s decision to leave EASA
remains problematic, the CAA’s new
boss Sir Stephen Hillier is determined
that the agency can rise to the challenge
David Kaminski-Morrow London “How can we ensure, as an or-
ganisation and nation, that we con-
tinue to discharge responsibilities
U
K withdrawal from the – and continue to be one of lead-
European Union Aviation ing aviation nations in the world?
Safety Agency (EASA) That’s my approach to it.”
was one of the more in- During Theresa May’s term as
comprehensible aspects of Brex- prime minister, a parliamentary in-
it for the air transport industry, dustrial strategy committee heavily
but new Civil Aviation Authority favoured remaining within EASA.
(CAA) chairman Sir Stephen Hillier Evidence from aerospace business-
is not inclined to ruminate over the es, unions and academia, it said,
wisdom of the decision. was “unanimous” in support of con-
Hillier rose to the rank of Air Chief Marshal
As might be expected from a tinued UK membership.
and was leader of the Royal Air Force
highly-decorated military officer “Close global regulatory align-
– Hillier is a Gulf War pilot who ment in aerospace has resulted in
reached the rank of Air Chief Mar- benefits in terms of safety, the ease
shal and led the Royal Air Force – of global trade and efficiency, while “It’s not the case that, over the
he is more focused on addressing it is unclear that there are any bene- years, everything to do with our
the state of play on the ground fits from divergence at this time,” it regulatory functions in the CAA
than debating the government added. The committee said the UK’s was handled by EASA. Particular
thinking which led to it. influence on aerospace regulation aspects were certainly handled by
“I think I’d characterise myself from within EASA was “preferable” EASA – but there remained a very
as realist and pragmatist,” he tells to “securing an escape” from Euro- strong core foundation in the UK
FlightGlobal. “This is the situation pean Court of Justice jurisdiction – looking after our national responsi-
we’re in. How do we ensure we especially given that the court had, bilities,” says Hillier.
deal with that situation to the best in practice, “played no role” in EA- “Where things were not repli-
of our ability? SA’s work and had never issued a cated in the CAA, but were deliv-
ruling on an EASA decision. ered by EASA, we brought those
functions back into the CAA. And
Full withdrawal I’m proud of the way in which we
UK industry is still suffering from
But the Brexit agreement negotiat- worked up that new capability, in
effects of Covid-19 pandemic
ed by May’s successor, Boris John- the way we tested it out thorough-
son, was founded on full withdraw- ly, before [the exit from the EU],
al from European Court of Justice and the way we’re now implement-
oversight – and therefore from ing it in practice.
EASA – forcing the CAA to re-es- “I’m not saying that, on 1 January,
tablish itself as a standalone regu- every aspect was taken care of to
lator from 1 January, outside of the the ultimate extent. It was a foun-
agency in which the UK had been dation. And in the [post-Brexit] pe-
highly respected. riod we’ve been steadily building
“We were a very strong contrib- on that foundation working with
utor to EASA from the start,” says other nations to ensure that we
Hillier. “Working together across can conduct business as efficiently
nations, to ensure we have the saf- as possible.”
est possible environment, has al- The CAA is not aiming to engage
ways been one of the things we’ve in persuasion with EASA. “It’s not
been very good at.” for us to run an influence cam-
Rich Higgins/Shutterstock
The extent of UK involvement and paign,” says Hillier, but adds: “We
the expertise it provided to EASA won’t be effective unless we have
meant the CAA had a “very strong strong and enduring relationships
foundation already in place” ahead with EASA – and likewise EASA has
of the withdrawal, he states, with to have a strong, effective and en-
safety “absolutely covered”. during relationship with the CAA.”

Interview Sir Stephen Hillier
exploitation, the innovation, and

which best deals with emerging
technologies. I don’t think any-
body’s got that yet.
“Here’s an example of an oppor-
tunity where we might, as the UK,
be able to frame a future in a new
area of capability which is genuine-
ly world-leading.”
Flexibility and agility, he says,
could be a “powerful advantage”
for an organisation trying to set
standards in a field of new systems
demanding new requirements.
Transition period
Although the final UK-EU post-Brex-
it agreement meant a ‘no-deal’ sce-
nario was averted days before the
1 January split, the section on avia-
tion is conspicuously one-sided.
All EASA certificates, approvals
Oliver Dixon/Shutterstock
and licences that were in effect on
31 December will continue to be
recognised by the CAA for up to
two years. But UK-licensed pilots
and UK-approved engineers will
not be qualified on EU-registered
aircraft, and UK-issued cabin crew
attestations may similarly cease to
be recognised.
“Working together across nations, UK aircraft are also restricted to
third- and fourth-freedom servic-
to ensure we have the safest es, losing the automatic intra-EU
access that came with EU member-
possible environment, has always ship. UK users of the space-based
EGNOS position-augmentation
been one of the things we’ve been service, which supports approach
guidance for landing aircraft, will
very good at” lose access in June this year.
“I’m sure that every sector of the
economy could look at that foun-
While separation from EASA – emphasising that the UK is part dational document and say, ‘I wish
theoretically grants the CAA more of ICAO and that “we shouldn’t just it could have included X, Y and Z’.
freedom to adopt its own regulato- see this through a European lens”. But there are practical limits, par-
ry stance, the extent to which it can Renegade activity is unlikely to ticularly in the timelines which were
realistically make changes – given find much endorsement in the in- available, to cover every aspect we
the trend towards harmonisation – ternational air transport sector, but might have wished,” says Hillier.
is yet to become clear. Hillier believes certain rapid chang- He acknowledges that “there’s
es within aerospace present an av- not full reciprocity at this stage”
Practical reality enue worth exploring. and the scale of the negotiation
Hillier highlights the “practical reali- “The classic example, I think, is task, given that the UK needs to
ty” that the CAA can be “more agile in relation to remotely-piloted air deal with every EU member while
and flexible” because it no longer systems [RPAS],” he says. “The in- any individual EU state only has to
needs to wait for consensus to novation, the development in those deal with the UK.
emerge within a 28-country circle. areas is really accelerating. “Listening to the sector, and un-
“We don’t want to be divergent “It’s worthy of note that, through- derstanding the issues people are
for divergence’s sake,” he says. out the pandemic, the one area experiencing in practice, we’ve put
“We’re very conscious that, if we where we’ve seen a consistent in a huge amount of effort to work
are divergent, there is also cost on growth – in terms of applications bilaterally with other nations and
businesses potentially and we need for licences, applications for air- start to secure the agreements we
to be very mindful of that.” space use – has been in RPAS. That need to secure,” he says.
But he also believes there is a has continued to accelerate. “That doesn’t mean that it’s all
“balance” to be achieved, to ex- “Against that sort of backdrop done. Twenty-seven countries is an
amine possible opportunities while I don’t think anybody has yet de- issue there. It doesn’t mean that we
maintaining smooth operations veloped the perfect regulatory en- have all of the reciprocity that we
across international boundaries vironment which best ensures the might hope for.”

Interview Sir Stephen Hillier
But the UK’s aim, he suggests, would be significantly more expen- And while Brexit might technical-
is to forge relationships rather sive than maintaining membership. ly be over, the work to establish the
than adopt an intransigent trans- UK aerospace trade association CAA in the post-Brexit arena – with
actional attitude. ADS Group chief executive Paul its blend of considerations on regu-
“I think taking the view that we Everitt, in November 2017, said the lation, sustainability, innovation, re-
are going to be as open as we body had estimated the task would lationships and Covid recovery – is
possibly can befits our status as a involve 200-300 people and cost only beginning.
leading world aerospace nation,” £30 million ($41 million) annually. “[We’re not] saying we’ve all
says Hillier, although he cautions “For us, it is very clear that going it those bases covered, in a way that
that the strategy of being “open alone is the most expensive option we’re satisfied [will] take us through
and accommodating” should not and, in most cases, not the most ef- the next 10 years. No organisation
mean indefinite acceptance. “It has ficient,” he stated. can say it’s covered,” he says.
to be time-limited,” he says. Hillier insists the notion of rebuild- “For about the last year now,
New post-Brexit bilateral ar- ing the CAA is misleading. “That we’ve been working on what we
rangements were put in place with would imply we gave all our respon- would say is defining the ‘CAA of
several countries – among them the sibilities to EASA, and then those the future’. What sort of organisa-
USA, Canada, Brazil and Japan – to responsibilities were coming back, tion do we want to be? What will
ensure recognition of safety cer- and we had to start from the bot- our responsibilities be, and how are
tificates and support operations, tom up and re-do the organisation. we going to do our business?
while ICAO membership provides “That work is now coming to ma-
assurances with others. turity and essentially laying out
De-integration from EASA meant CAA strategy, taking us through
bringing two particular roles back the next 10 years.”
within the CAA remit. For state-of-
design, some 20-25 people were Core objectives
looking after UK interests in EASA. This strategy aims to combine core
“What we needed to do was ei- objectives with a sense of direc-
ther bring those individuals back tion, while emphasising flexibility,
into our system or find people to he says: “Because we might think
fit those roles,” says Hillier. “It was [we know] what the world’s going
a mixed response. Some decided to look like over the next 10 years
to stay in EASA, some didn’t. That but it’s probably going to be differ-
was their choice.” ent from what we planned.
“So this is under-the-bonnet ac-
Aviation safety tivity that we need to do. I’m real-
But the CAA managed to recruit ly enthusiastic about the progress
sufficient personnel to have the that we’re making, particularly in
necessary governance in place by areas like sustainability. Aside from
1 January. The other major role be- the recovery from Covid – and let’s
ing repatriated is aviation safety not underestimate that – getting to
CAA
policy-making, which is being han- grips with sustainability, in all of its

dled in conjunction with the De- Hillier aims to maintain the CAA’s reputation respects, all those sort of things I
partment for Transport. as a highly capable, ‘world-class regulator’ think are really exciting and chal-
“Nothing I’ve seen in the three lenging as well.”
months [since Brexit] would sug- The realm of the future CAA,
gest that we are having any difficul- “It certainly isn’t that way in he adds, will not be limited to air-
ties through a lack of the skills and structural terms, and doesn’t feel space. With legislation in progress
capacities,” says Hillier. “The one like that in practice.” to allow for CAA oversight of com-
sort of caveat that I’ll honestly offer He says the number of people mercial spaceflight technologies,
is that we’re clearly in ‘Covid times’.” brought back to the CAA to sup- from vertically-launched vehicles
He says the CAA is aware of the port the reclaiming of functions to sub-orbital aircraft, space regu-
“very low baseline” resulting from from EASA is relatively small com- lation is “part of the exciting jour-
the pandemic’s suppression of traf- pared with the CAA’s 1,200 employ- ney”, says Hillier.
fic and is concentrating on ensuring ees, about half of whom are within “I would hope the CAA’s call-
that it has capacity to cope as activ- safety and airspace regulation. ing-card continues to be that we’re
ity picks up during a recovery. “I think that gives a little bit of the seen as a world-class regulator, that
But out of the range of issues the sense of perspective here,” he says. we have the skills and capabilities
CAA is monitoring, he states, the “We’re not rebuilding an organ- and experience to offer that others
implication of being outside EASA isation. We’ve just put new wings would find attractive,” he says.
is “not one that’s a concern at this onto the building rather than come “We’re a learning organisation.
stage – it’s just a consideration in up with the new building itself.” Working with others increases our
there, it’s not one that troubles us”. He stresses that this neverthe- learning. We learn from our deal-
When the government was de- less has taken “a lot of hard work ings with other nations. By offering
bating the merits of leaving EASA, and planning” and that a successful out our product, if we can be part
it was told during industrial com- transition on 1 January was down of enhancing aviation safety across
mittee testimonies that replicating to the effort and resources devoted the world then we have not only the
the European agency’s functions over the previous four years. desire but the duty to do that.” ◗
30 Flight International Month 2021

Cost war of attrition

So-called attritable aircraft are of
soaring interest to the US Air Force, but
can manufacturers succeed in making
such assets affordably disposable?
Garrett Reim Los Angeles reliability. But with attritable UAVs
there is no pilot to keep alive, and
the equipment is so cheap by de-
T
he sight of an aircraft crash- sign that combatant commanders
ing would be the stuff of – and the US Congress – will not
nightmares for most engi- mind the loss.
neers. But for those compa- Manufacturers say model-based
nies developing a new class of un- systems engineering is at the core replaced by three $50 valves each
manned air vehicles (UAVs) called of making such aircraft viable. guaranteed to work for 1,000h.
attritable aircraft, such destruction These software tools allow them to “We’re going to build redundan-
is unlikely to elicit more than a create a digital twin of a UAV and cy. We’re going to put in three par-
shrug of the shoulders. then explore its total lifetime cost allel paths – all we need is any one
The US Air Force (USAF) be- in various simulations. of the three working and the sys-
lieves that by designing and build- tem will keep operating,” he says.
ing UAVs cheaply enough it can Digital twin Sourcing parts and components
gain an edge over its adversaries “When you have a digital twin that from the commercial aviation sec-
in a war of attrition; it wants assets goes all the way from the product tor is also helpful.
that it can afford to lose. through the production system “Stay away from bleeding-edge
UAVs priced between $2 million into the operating environment, we technology,” says Fendley. “Don’t
and $20 million are being sought can very rapidly model the impacts try to incorporate the very latest
to accomplish a range of missions, of any change,” says Glynn. technology that still has risk asso-
including intelligence, surveillance “It could be really detailed-level ciated with it [and] probably has
and reconnaissance, air strikes, decisions around informing how additional costs.”
air-to-air combat and electronic you transport parts around the Business jet engines were picked
warfare. Exactly what price point factory, or what enables lean flow to power the ATS and Valkyrie air-
offers the best balance of afforda- through the production system,” he craft. Boeing declines to identify the
bility and performance is debat- says. “Any number of those small engine used with its platform, while
ed by the manufacturers vying to decisions cumulatively add up Kratos confirms only that it employs
build the USAF’s attritable aircraft to making a big difference to the a Williams International model.
in programmes such as MQ-Next overall cost base.” “We need to have an engine
and Skyborg. Manufacturers must also adopt a that’s super reliable, super pre-
“The philosophy behind an at- different mindset towards quality dictable,” says Fendley. “We un-
tritable aircraft is really around de- and reliability, says Steve Fendley, derstand the performance, it can
sign for cost,” says Andrew Glynn, unmanned systems division presi- be maintained, it is a reasonable
programme manager for the Boe- dent at Kratos Defense & Security cost, and it all fits within the sys-
ing Airpower Teaming System Solutions. The company’s XQ-58A tem.” In the future, there might be
(ATS), which was first flown in Aus- Valkyrie on 26 March conducted its an opportunity to reduce the cost
tralia on 27 February. “It’s about sixth flight, releasing an Area-I Alti- of such engines by changing mate-
trying to get a good enough prod- us-600 air-launched effect from its rials or manufacturing some parts
uct at the right price.” internal weapons bay. via 3D printing, he adds.
“Good enough” represents a new As an exaggerated example, Another cost-saving method is to
mindset for the aerospace indus- Fendley says a fuel valve part that go without, for example by using
try, which is usually doggedly fo- might cost $500,000 and is guar- fewer control surfaces. “If your at-
cused on high levels of safety and anteed to work for 5,000h could be tritable [aircraft] gets shot and you
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Unmanned systems Manufacturing
“An attritable [aircraft] doesn’t

need to survive decades of use and
abuse – many will be one-time use,
no different from firing a missile”
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Steve Fendley President unmanned systems, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
designs and an open architecture overall part count, which reduces

to easily accommodate new hard- touch labour and integration costs.”
ware and software. While there may be a place for
“It really does almost become several types of materials, compos-
XQ-58A made a sixth flight on 26 March,
a kit perspective, like more of an ites seem to have a leading applica-
releasing Altius-600 air-launched effect
Ikea furniture kind of mindset,” tion. “The strength-to-weight ratio,
says Renee Pasman, director of in- the basic strength characteristics,
tegrated systems within Lockheed the damage tolerance character-
lose a control surface, you’re proba- Martin’s Advanced Development istics, the ability to evaluate a po-
bly going to decide to ditch and not Programs unit, known popularly as tential flaw in manufacturing, or for
try to bring it back,” Fendley notes. Skunk Works. failure or a soon-to-be failure in the
“An attritable [aircraft] doesn’t By using 3D printing, but also tra- field, carbonfibre is just fantastic,”
need to survive decades of use and ditional CNC machining, attritable says Fendley.
abuse – many will likely be only one- aircraft should have simple shapes
time use, no different from firing a that can be assembled quickly, even Material qualities
missile – so the need for redundant within a couple of hours, she says. Low-cost, resin-infusion compos-
systems is diminished compared Boeing uses modular jigs to as- ites have advantages, but material
with an aircraft that is designed for semble its ATS, with “a common qualities are not the only impor-
a 40,000-hour service life,” says base that can be easily reconfig- tant consideration for Boeing, says
Mike Atwood, senior director for urable to accept different types Glynn. “It’s not just the material
advanced programmes at General of major structure components, costs or the fabrication time, it’s
Atomics Aeronautical Systems. for example the fuselage or wing,” understanding how those materi-
Glynn says. als and processes help to support
Looser tolerances Its first, production-representa- lean, single piece flow through a
Allowing for less precision in man- tive prototype was built with high factory,” he says.
ufacturing will also be helpful. levels of automation, he says, not- “Composites lend themselves
“The tighter tolerances are going ing: “We start by designing the full- to complex shapes,” says Atwood.
to drive cost. It’s going to drive the rate [system] and work backwards “But for small attritables, we might
failure rates up, drive the number of or tune it from there.” get away with high-strength, injec-
things that don’t make it out of the General Atomics also is looking tion-moulded or additive-manufac-
factory, that end up being reject- toward commercial manufacturing tured composites or plastics. Keep-
ed,” Fendley says. Accommodating processes, including 3D printing. ing touch points and maintenance
looser tolerances will also enable “One of the key technologies is to a minimum, and parts count and
easier repairs if the aircraft sustains additive manufacturing of thermo- redundancy low, can make attrita-
damage in flight or on landing. plastics. Using tool-less part man- bles affordable,” he adds.
Generally, manufacturers say at- ufacturing enables minimised de- That might mean forgoing main-
tritable aircraft must be simpler velopment cost,” Atwood says. “In tenance access panels, says Pas-
than their peers, with modular addition, this technology reduces man, so broken or damaged UAVs
might just be thrown away, rather
than repaired. “If you can get the
price point right that actually starts
making some amount of sense,”
she says.
Lockheed argues that such UAVs
need to be even cheaper than the
USAF’s $2 million cost floor to
make the grade.
“In order to really get that very
large mass of small, low-cost ve-
hicles, you really have to get to a
cost point that you don’t necessar-
ily care if they come back,” Pasman
says. “$20 million airplanes – are
Boeing’s Airpower Teaming System was
we really not going to care that
Boeing
built using high levels of automation

they don’t come back?” ◗

Fresson takes
new direction
Project to deliver
green powertrain
for iconic Islander
switches course
with move to
hyrdogen fuel
cells, but change
leads Rolls-Royce
to depart
Cranfield Aerospace Solutions
consortium
Dominic Perry London absolutely get the range”, but depending on the engine. That
with the additional weight on top equates to a flight time of 1h, with a
of the batteries, particularly when 45min reserve.
A
UK initiative to develop a taking safety and redundancy into Hutton argues that when the
retrofitable green propul- account, “you end up producing consortium analysed how the fleet
sion system for the Brit- the same or more carbon than the is used “a very large percentage”
ten-Noman BN-2 Islander original aircraft.” of operators indicated that the 1h
has dramatically switched course, Instead, a fuel cell system using flight time was sufficient.
abandoning a previous drive to- gaseous hydrogen is being pur- In addition, Jenny Kavanagh,
wards hybrid-electric power in fa- sued, which Hutton says is “both chief strategy officer at CAeS, says
vour of hydrogen fuel cells. green and very much commercially operators were keen to retain other
Announced in November 2019, viable”, particularly “on this plat- characteristics of the Islander, such
Project Fresson involved a con- form and the way that it is used”. as short-field performance and its
sortium – led by Cranfield Aero- nine-passenger capacity.
space Solutions (CAeS) – that was First flight But crucially, hydrogen power
awarded a £9 million ($12.6 million) A first flight of the demonstrator should offer a significant opera-
government grant for the work. aircraft is still envisaged in 2022, tional cost saving against the cur-
This planned to deliver a “first pas- with CAeS currently negotiating to rent piston-engine options: Hut-
senger-carrying sub-regional air- acquire an Islander for the effort. ton estimates an annual saving of
craft capable of all-electric flight” Providing there are no hiccups, en- £150,000-£300,000 depending
suitable for short “island hopping” try into service is envisaged in late on useage and cost of hydrogen.
missions by 2024. 2023 or early 2024, says Hutton. Maintenance costs should also fall,
But Paul Hutton, chief executive However, Islanders powered by in the region of 15% for the whole
of CAeS, says that detailed analy- the fuel cell system will have a sig- aircraft and up to 50% for the pro-
sis of the electric powertrain op- nificant cut in range, which falls to pulsion system alone.
tions – pure batteries or hybrid around 100-135nm (200-250km) Lara Harrison, business develop-
architectures featuring piston or from 639-728nm at present, ment director at Britten-Norman,
turbine range extenders – conclud-
ed “around three to four months
ago” that they were not viable for “The difference with the solution
this application.
“The battery solution is clearly we are talking about now is that I
green, but with this particular plat-
form you end up with such a small have something I can take to my
range that it’s just not feasible
commercially,” he says. customers as a real-world solution”
With either a piston or tur-
bine range extender “you can Lara Harrison Business development director, Britten-Norman

Propulsion Environment
says that there were always “con- piston or R-R turboprop engines, allow for better integration with
cerns” around electrification, in respectively rated at 260-300hp the airframe, he says.
particular the weight of the bat- (190-220kW) and 320hp; by com- Hutton concedes a clean-sheet
teries, as well as the infrastructure parison each fuel cell system will design could be better optimised
and length of time required to re- provide 250kW of power. around the new powertrain, but says
charge them. The composite hydrogen fuel that would not offer the “quickest
“The difference with the solution tanks will be fitted underneath the way” to improve the industry’s envi-
we are talking about now is that I Islander’s wings using an existing ronmental performance.
have something I can take to my pylon modification. Similarly, although using liquid
customers as a real-world solution Innovatus’s SHyFT multi-cham- hydrogen increases the energy
for them,” she says. ber tanks are a “key enabler” density of the fuel, the cooling and
Should the powertrain developed for the system, says the Scottish storage requirements “pose a dif-
by Project Fresson gain certifica- company’s business development ferent level of complexity”.
tion, CAeS will offer it as a retro- director Stuart McIntyre. Their ul- “You don’t want to add that
fit solution, while a line-fit option tra-lightweight design and con- complexity when you don’t need
will be available direct from Brit- struction and flexible form factor to,” he says. ◗
ten-Norman.
A number of current operators,
both in the UK and elsewhere, have
been approached as potential “ear- SATE should slake appetite for dedicated test facility
ly adopters” for route-proving tri-
als, Harrison adds. The UK’s ambitions to develop an environmentally friendly air
She says the development will be transport system will be aided through the creation of a dedicated
an “iterative process” and dangles test environment in the north of Scotland.
the prospect of a future “next-gen- Under the Sustainable Aviation Test Environment (SATE) project,
eration Islander” to be built around a new facility will be set up at Kirkwall airport in the Orkney Islands
the fuel cell technology. to support the evaluation of new propulsion technologies and the
However, the change in archi- required airport infrastructure.
tecture also sees the consortium Jointly funded by the UK’s Future Flight Challenge and industry, the
altered: Rolls-Royce, which was to £3.7 million ($5 million) project will explore how to implement zero-
provide the power management carbon airport infrastructure using green energy sources, and trial
system, has opted to leave, along new clean aircraft.
with subcontractors Delta Motor- Led by Highlands & Islands Airports (HIAL), the consortium includes
sport and WMG. energy providers, academia, aircraft developers Ampaire, ZeroAvia
and Windracers, and Scottish carrier Loganair.
Future opportunities Implementation of the facility will be led by engineering consultancy
For its part, R-R says that due to Arcadis, which was recently appointed to the role by HIAL. The
the simplification of the architec- project, which began last November, will run for an initial 18 months.
ture, its power management sys- Kirkwall airport was selected as an ideal test environment, due in
tem was no longer needed. “Rolls- part to its relatively quiet airspace but also because of its role as a
Royce will take the learning it has hub airport, with a variety of short-haul routes connecting Orkney’s
acquired from the project and in- island communities.
corporate it into future opportuni- In addition, “Orkney provides options to fly over water, in a
ties in this sphere,” it says. challenging environment and climate, for real-world application
The UK company continues to testing of the technologies,” according to the project’s funding
research the use of hydrogen in application documents.
aviation and stresses that this de-
cision does not reflect its overall
view of hydrogen as a potential
propulsion technology.
Appointed in the place of the de-
parting firms are engineering ser-
vices company Ricardo, which will
supply the fuel cells and associat-
ed systems, plus hydrogen storage
provider Innovatus Technologies.
Ricardo is not developing the
fuel cell stacks itself, says An-
drew Ennever, the firm’s solution
lead for the technology. Instead,
it brings its expertise to the re-en-
Kilted Arab/Shutterstock
gineering of the balance of plant

around the fuel cell stack, and to
the management and control of
the overall system. Kirkwall was selected for its quiet
Islander aircraft are currently airspace and position as Orkney’s hub
powered by either twin Lycoming

Airbus warms to
cryogenic cooling
Manufacturer launches powertrain
demonstrator to investigate materials
Future aircraft will benefit from lighter
systems as a result of research for next-generation electric propulsion
Airbus
David Kaminski-Morrow London While there are already propulsion “We want to do that because
options for lower-power aircraft, he the objective of the project is not
says the technology will “be an ena- to be specific to an aircraft [type]
A
irbus has embarked on bler” for high-power designs. but demonstrate the feasibility and
a programme to build a Superconducting materials that potential of technologies for an air-
powertrain demonstra- lose their resistivity when cryo- craft application,” he says, pointing
tor showing the potential genically cooled to extremely low out that a light vertical take-off air-
of cryogenically cooled supercon- temperatures are already used in craft might require “a few hundred
ducting materials to reduce weight systems such as medical scanners, kilowatts” but a long-range aircraft
and improve the efficiency of power electrical power grid transmission, would require “multi-megawatt”
conversion for electric propulsion. and particle accelerators. power generation.
Electric propulsion prospects NASA and other research agen- The ASCEND powertrain would
have focused on light, regional air- cies have looked into aerospace ap- include a transmission system, tak-
craft because the power demanded plications for superconductors and ing electrical power via supercon-
for larger, longer-range types can- Ybanez says Airbus research indi- ducting cables and connectors to
not be achieved without installing cates a potential halving of power- a motor control unit and then, with
prohibitively heavy systems and train weight and electrical losses, as DC power converted to AC, a super-
generating large amounts of heat. well as a reduction in the voltage conducting motor to generate me-
But the shift toward electrical required to less than 500V. chanical thrust.
designs raises the possibility of Alongside this transmission sys-
using low-temperature supercon- Voltage reduction tem a cryogenic system would pro-
ducting materials to increase pow- He says the voltage reduction is vide cooling to the superconduct-
er density, enabling a reduction in “very interesting for aircraft” being components.
weight of electric current trans- cause high voltage presents prob- Airbus has already started explor-
mission systems. lems such as arcing, requiring elec- ing the possibilities presented by
Airbus will design and build the trical network protection. liquid hydrogen as a fuel for future
demonstrator over the next three “If you want to develop low- or zero-emission engines.
years under a project called AS- zero-emission aircraft you have to Liquid hydrogen, which exists at
CEND led by electric power tech- address two main problems: energy temperatures of around 20 Kelvin
nology specialist Ludovic Ybanez. storage, and conversion from ener- (-253°C/-423°F) offers a source of
“If we succeed it will be clearly gy to propulsion,” he says. “ASCEND cooling for a superconducting cir-
a breakthrough in electric pro- is focused on the conversion part.” cuit. Since liquid hydrogen has to
pulsion for aircraft,” Ybanez tells The project will explore develop- be heated from this temperature
FlightGlobal. “It’s a game-changer ment of a “generic” powertrain, he for injection into a fuel cell, using
for aircraft.” says, in the 500kW range. it as a heat-exchanger to cool a

Technology Research
cryogenic powertrain would be a

“win-win situation”, says Ybanez. “If you want to develop low- or
But he points out that there are
safety issues with distributing liq- zero-emission aircraft you have to
uid hydrogen, which Airbus will
need to avoid. address two main problems: energy
ASCEND will look at another sce-
nario, without liquid hydrogen on storage, and conversion from
board, with a neutral coolant such
as liquid nitrogen or helium. energy to propulsion”
Ybanez adds that, although the
overall superconducting system Ludovic Ybanez Electric power technology specialist, Airbus
needs to be cold, around 30-50
Kelvin, the different components of
the powertrain might require indi- global system is very good,” he hybrid propeller powerplants – by
vidual temperatures – perhaps 80 says. “We’ve launched the project the end of 2023.
Kelvin for cables, 100-150 Kelvin for because we don’t think we will have Ybanez says that, once the pow-
conventional semiconductors – and show-stoppers. But we will have dif- ertrain demonstrator has been
the project will look at changing ficult points to address.” completed, it will enable decisions
the temperature of liquid hydrogen Ybanez is encouraged, however, to be made on whether the tech-
or developing specific cooling sys- by initial research focusing on the nology is sufficiently mature to
tems for certain components. behaviour of semiconductors at develop a specific powertrain for
ASCEND will investigate feasibili- low temperatures. flight testing.
ty of the system to “identify poten- Airbus, through its UpNext future Some of the technology – such as
tial show-stoppers and kill them – or technology subsidiary, will con- that used in terrestrial applications
kill the project”, he says, and ana- struct the powertrain demonstrator – is already available, and part of
lyse whether overall performance at its E-Aircraft System House out- the strategy will focus on how to in-
benefits from the technology. side Munich, and test solutions that tegrate it into aircraft, while Ybanez
“Just because one system is can be adapted to a range of en- believes other aspects could be
very good doesn’t mean the gines – turboprops, turbofans and ready by around 2030. ◗
Faury insists 2035 is ‘credible’ timeline for zero-emission aircraft

Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury insists a because it gives the aerospace industry five years
2035 entry-into-service horizon for zero-emission to mature the technology.
aircraft is “credible”, given the advancing work on He says that the industry is “working on that now,
hydrogen power. big time”.
Six months ago the airframer unveiled proposed Another two years would be necessary to prepare
designs for zero-emissions aircraft, including a to launch an aircraft programme – sourcing funding
blended-wing body concept and finding production
alongside more conventional locations – before a formal
Manuel Blondeau/Aop Press/Zuma Press/Shutterstock
twinjet and turboprop launch around 2027-2028,

configurations. giving another seven or eight
“We think it’s going to years before introduction to
happen,” said Faury, speaking service, Faury says.
during a Eurocontrol-hosted “That’s very credible,” he
event on 30 March. “These says. “It doesn’t mean all
are different architectures solutions are on the table.”
we’re looking at – among Although hydrogen fuel is
others – these are the main “not a new technology”, he
ones we’re looking at for says, a “lot of engineering”
future hydrogen aircraft.” will be necessary to adapt
Faury says the blended- it safely and reliably to
wing concept is “very commercial aerospace.
interesting”, because it Hydrogen power has ‘big momentum’, says Airbus chief Faury also stresses that a
is “well-suited for a high new regulatory framework is
volume of fuel inside the aircraft” – pointing out required, as well as a “level playing-field” for those
that hydrogen is “bulky” compared with kerosene- regulations, plus “large quantities of decarbonised
based fuel. hydrogen at airports” by 2035.
“To go a certain distance needs more volume “Obviously we’re far from being there,” he says.
of fuel on board and that’s why we’re looking at But he adds that there is “big momentum” on
different architectures,” he states. hydrogen technology in a number of industries.
Faury says the 2035 timeframe for hydrogen fuel “We think that’s really good to see, very
technology’s entry-into-service “makes sense” encouraging,” he says.

Technology Investment
BA zeroes in on hydrogen
Flag carrier invests in propulsion system developer
to accelerate development of green powerplants
for larger commercial aircraft
ZeroAvia says fuel cell-equipped 50-70-seater
ZeroAvia
will enter service by middle of the decade
Dominic Perry London but “at the moment hydrogen does Work on that programme will run
seem to be emerging as a clear win- “at full speed” with the aim of de-
ner for the future”, says Harris. livering a certifiable design by the
B
ritish Airways has become The relationship built through end of 2022.
the first airline to invest in Hangar 51 has allowed the airline to Although development will take
hydrogen propulsion de- begin considering the operational place on the Dornier 228, discus-
veloper ZeroAvia – a move requirements for a switch to hydro- sions with potential operators will
that could see the flag carrier re- gen power, including the necessary determine the eventual launch air-
place its whole short-haul fleet with fuelling infrastructure. frame. Miftakhov says “the target is
zero-emission aircraft by 2050. BA is also “looking at specific to make that decision this year”.
Alongside a group of exist- routes where there could be the op- “That’s not necessarily what they
ing backers, including the Bill portunity for the early introduction fly today, but based on what capa-
Gates-founded Breakthrough En- of hydrogen aircraft,” she says. bility and mission profile they are
ergy Ventures, BA contributed to a While adding a sub-100-seat air- looking for,” he adds.
total of $24.3 million raised by the craft would not be entirely alien to Additional aircraft types will be
California-headquartered start-up. BA – its CityFlyer unit uses 76-98- retrofitted with the ZeroAvia pow-
BA declines to reveal how much seat Embraer E-Jets – it currently ertrain via supplemental or amend-
it provided for the Series A4 fund- operates no regional turboprops, ed type certificates, he says.
ing round, but ZeroAvia says it will a class of aircraft that would gain Miftakhov estimates the Ze-
advance the development of a fuel the new propulsion system being roAvia fuel cell system will offer a
cell-based powertrain suitable for a developed by ZeroAvia. maintenance saving of around 50%
50-70-seat aircraft. against a turbine-powered 19-seat-
Under the accelerated timetable, Single minded er, with a similar fuel cost saving.
that aircraft could enter service in But Harris sees the potential for In parallel with HyFlyer II, Ze-
2026, following a 19-seater which is a larger hydrogen-powered sin- roAvia will this year begin initial
scheduled to arrive in 2024. gle-aisle arriving from 2030 – a activities on the propulsion system
Val Miftakhov, founder and chief timeframe that aligns with Airbus’s which would equip a 50-70-seater,
executive of ZeroAvia, says that plans to replace its A320neo family. which would be capable of provid-
while he is happy to have secured “As we phase that into the fleet ing 1.6MW to each electric motor.
the latest backing, “we are more we believe that by 2050 all short- That development is likely to re-
pleased with the level of interest” haul flights could be on zero-emis- quire close collaboration with an
shown in the next generation of its sion aircraft,” she says, anticipating airframer. Miftakhov notes that the
propulsion system. the arrival of a suitable 180-seater choice of suitable aircraft is limited
“The investment is a manifesta- from about 2035 and considering to either the ATR 72 or De Havilland
tion of interest – it allows us to cap- BA’s typical replacement cycle. Canada Dash 8-300.
ture that demand sooner,” he says. ZeroAvia will later this year per- Further out, co-operation will be
ZeroAvia has since January been form the maiden flight of the pow- vital. “For the next size – to power a
part of the Hangar 51 technology ertrain for the 19-seater, which is typical single-aisle – the timeline of
accelerator run by BA parent IAG. sized to deliver 600kW to each mo- potential engine availability is such
Carrie Harris, head of sustainability tor. This is being developed under that it is compatible with new air-
at the carrier, says the financial con- the UK government-backed HyFly- frames being designed,” he adds.
tribution “gives us the opportunity er II programme. “We could partner on a clean-
to solidify our commitment to Ze- Miftakhov says the company is in sheet [design] – it is much more
roAvia and to the decarbonisation the process of acquiring a Dornier efficient to do it that way than via
of aviation in the long term.” 228 twin-turborop for that effort; a retrofit.”
The investment does not commit conversion is to take place at a re- Production of the 600kW system
BA to purchase any future aircraft cently acquired site at Cotswold will be in the UK, although a final
that use ZeroAvia’s technology, airport in the southwest of England. location is yet to be selected. ◗

Opinion
A powerful change
Industry-wide use of sustainable aviation
fuels will provide a vital environmental
bridging measure until technology’s
next propulsion shift, says Geoff Hunt
Pratt & Whitney

C
ommercial aviation has a (CO2) emissions reductions. How-
unique opportunity when it ever, bringing future hyper-effi-
Solution exists for aviation to
comes to sustainable flight, cient technology to the market and
reduce emissions, says Hunt
and our industry must use into airline fleets will take time.
multiple approaches to address We know how to get there; those
the challenge. of us in industry, and our partners
We will of course continue to in government, need to get serious will have a meaningful environmen-
leverage our technical know-how about a viable path for SAF devel- tal impact – clearly an important
and innovation to build future gen- opment, production and distribu- factor given the scale of the chal-
erations of ever-more efficient and tion. The latest-generation engine lenge with boosting SAF produc-
capable aircraft. technology today can fly on 100% tion capacity.
One immediate opportunity to SAFs under test conditions, though Although we are also investigat-
radically reduce our dependence modifications to engine compo- ing zero emissions technologies
on fossil fuels is to develop a viable nents may be required. This is not a like hydrogen- and electric-pow-
and robust sustainable aviation fuel pacing event for the industry. ered propulsion, these do not com-
(SAF) infrastructure and market- We need SAFs developed at pete with the drive to implement
place as a bridge technology, as we scale. Today, less than 1% of fuel SAFs at scale; in fact they are syn-
design and build the future gener- needs are met by their use. Gov- ergistic. The buzz around hydrogen
ation of commercial aircraft, pow- ernments can provide the right mix helps build up our capacity for re-
ered by hyper-efficient engines. of incentives and funding to stim- newable energy sources that plays
At the risk of simplifying matters, ulate supply and demand towards directly into power-to-liquid SAF
industry – with appropriate govern- an economically competitive level. production infrastructure.
ment support – can develop a via- Pratt & Whitney stands ready to
ble, affordable path to using SAFs. Tax credits work with regulatory authorities to
Fact: by 2035, 44,000 aircraft are In Europe, we are seeing a move test and develop global standards
expected to be in service, and the towards mandating a minimum lev- for SAFs to be used in engines as
majority of those will still be flying el of SAF usage, while in the USA, “drop-in” blends at or greater than
in 2050 and beyond. Airlines can- the industry is calling for “blend- the 50% blend with kerosene al-
not re-fleet entirely when the next er’s” tax credits to reduce the price lowed today. Ideally, we need to
generation of technology is intro- differential versus kerosene. Ulti- develop standards to allow any and
duced from 2035. mately, we will need both of these all SAFs to be used interchangeably
We need a solution that bridges carrots and sticks to lift the growth throughout the world, by any airline
the technology gap between now in SAFs beyond the anaemic pro- on any large commercial aircraft.
and our sustainable future state. gress to date. The answer to more sustainable
A robust SAF infrastructure and There are currently seven SAF aviation is not asking people to
marketplace would take us to 2050 production pathways available, and travel less. This is unrealistic, and
with a new baseline carbon foot- industry will also need to find a the past year has shown us how
print from which the industry will balance to avoid competition with important it is to connect people
apply our collective knowledge to food producers for arable land, for and grow economies through af-
reduce our footprint even further, instance, by focusing on waste-to- fordable air travel. The answer is in
through the diligent development fuel and power-to-liquid solutions. employing smarter, more environ-
and use of new technology and in- Transitioning to SAFs provides mentally friendly technologies to
novation that it has always shown. benefits beyond reducing CO2 help people and cargo take flight.
Advancements in gas turbine emissions. By avoiding the impu- Our industry has proven its ability
engines have already reduced fuel rities associated with fossil-based to meet any challenge with practi-
consumption and emissions, so the fuels, SAFs will also cut sulphur ox- cal and pragmatic solutions, and
near-term flying fleet is performing ide and particulate emissions, which we can, and must, do it again. ◗
better. For example, Pratt & Whit- contribute to contrail formation and See p65
ney’s geared turbofan technology, other climate change impacts.
which entered service in 2016, de- These incremental benefits, Geoff Hunt is Pratt & Whitney’s
livers 16-20% better fuel efficiency along with those from other ad- senior vice-president, engineering
and corresponding carbon dioxide vancements in engine efficiency, & technology

View from the cockpit
Keeping resilient
We hear from an anonymous UK pilot made redundant in the
pandemic about further stress caused by the loss of mutual
licensing recognition after Brexit – and how to find support
T
he past year or more has
been very challenging for
the aviation community.
Being a pilot, I was made
redundant by my former employ-
er, and losing my dream job was a
heartbreaking blow.
While dealing with the impact
of the Covid-19-driven downturn,
many airlines have understandably
stopped or frozen recruitment, re-
ducing the chances of re-gaining
employment. Now UK pilots are
facing the issues that Brexit has
AirTeamImages
brought in terms of licensing trans-
fer requirements.
This is the first redundancy that I
have experienced, and I would not
Covid pandemic suddenly put
wish it on anyone. The feeling of
brakes on dream job for many
isolation – multiplied by the actual
isolation of lockdowns – really af-
fects your well-being, particularly
after being used to frantic flying and had no need to do so at that others are going through. This can
schedules and meeting many dif- time, or were hoping that a mutu- really help with your well-being.
ferent friends and colleagues each al agreement would be reached as As an independent, not for profit
day while line flying. part of the Brexit negotiations. organisation, its goals are to help
Having a very supportive family A pilot being faced with so many pilots navigate their return to the
and friends helps, but sadly they issues could find themselves in a flightdeck when opportunities
do not understand all of the stress- place of despair. emerge. It works to highlight the
es that pilots are facing after flying challenges they are facing and sup-
into a perfect storm of redundancy, Staying connected ports initiatives to overcome barri-
pandemic and now licensing issues. I learned of an organisation called ers where safe and appropriate to
After losing my job, I wanted to Resilient Pilot, created during the do so.
transfer my UK Civil Aviation Au- pandemic to keep pilots support- The CAA itself has a microsite
thority (CAA) Flying Crew Licence ed, current and connected. I have designed to update post-EU exit
(FCL) to a European Aviation Safe- found this to be a great help dur- developments, and has delivered
ty Agency (EASA) FCL. However, a ing such an uncertain and unprec- several webinars to address the key
number of EASA states responded edented time. Supporting pilots to issues that we are facing. These can
advising that I would have to re-do keep their licences valid, and re- also be watched on demand via the
all 14 Airline Transport Pilot Licence ducing the cost of doing so, is real- resilientpilot.com website.
exams, as well as my instrument ly appreciated at this stressful and Pilots affected by the changes
rating, English language proficiency financially delicate time. enforced by the UK’s departure
test and EASA Class One medical. Having access to support and from the EU have launched a pe-
Asking pilots to repeat all of their the latest developments in the in- tition appealing to the UK govern-
exams in order to hold the same dustry by way of weekly webinars ment for reciprocal and fair mutual
licence gained previously under and offering one-to-one mentoring agreement on the transfer of FCLs
the same syllabus and regulations or coaching support is what pilots between the CAA and EASA –
causes undue stress, and has a who find themselves in this situa- without the need to repeat exams.
massive impact on well-being and tion really need at this time. For more information, see petition.
mental health. Even if it is just for a weekly chat parliament.uk/petitions/578133.
There was a transfer period about aviation, the connection pro- A second petition, asking the
where a pilot could convert their vided reduces the feeling of iso- European Parliament for a similar
licence, but many missed this be- lation and the Resilient Pilot team reciprocal agreement, is currently
cause they were still employed have empathy with what you and awaiting approval. ◗

Embraer Visit FlightGlobal Premium for all the latest aviation news and insight FlightGlobal.com
Embraer recently completed in-flight refuelling qualification work

using a pair of KC-390 tanker/transports for the Brazilian air force
Best of the rest

Crown Copyright
We showcase some of the other

notable events covered by the
FlightGlobal team between issues
Japan Airlines is retiring its Pratt &
Whitney PW4000-powered Boeing
777s, following an uncontained engine
failure affecting a US-operated twinjet
Viper-Zero/Shutterstock
The UK Royal Navy has launched operational training

with its first Crowsnest airborne surveillance and control-
adapted Leonardo Helicopters AW101 Merlin HM2

Highlights
Lufthansa
This Lufthansa Airbus A350-900 (D-AIXJ)
will receive 1.6t of container-housed
instruments, for climate research duties
United Aircraft
Russia’s Ilyushin Il-112V military transport resumed flight
testing on 30 March – exactly two years after its debut sortie
Boeing resumed deliveries of

its 787 on 26 March, after a
five-month pause, transferring
a -9 example to United Airlines
United Airlines
Amit Agronov/Israeli air force

The Israeli air force has welcomed
its new Gulfstream G550-based
“Oron” surveillance aircraft, ahead of
conversion and service entry in 2023

June’s issue
Next month US
defence
exports keep
soaring as
Washington On sale
targets 27 May
buyers
Fast mover Slow going

Racer speeds We review
development the business
pace after fortunes of big
Airbus Helicopters
pandemic two airframers

black-flagged while crisis
US Air Force
Boeing
last year hits demand

Cyril Cosmao/Dassault Aviation
Dassault’s newest type, the 6X, flew

for the first time on 10 March
Murdo Morrison London

saw the decline in deliveries slow in the fourth quar-
ter, and some believe that optimism will continue in
W
hen the world started shutting down 2021. “I am quite bullish on new airplane sales,” says
in March 2020 as Covid-19 took hold, commentator Brian Foley, of Brian Foley Associates.
business aviation enjoyed an unexpected, “The manufacturers are conditioning shareholders for
if short-lived surge. As airlines cancelled a gloomier outlook, but I think the opposite.”
thousands of flights, and governments considered He says business aircraft utilisation figures for the
border closures, quarantines and stay-indoors orders, first quarter in the USA – the biggest market – were
many stranded abroad wanted to get themselves and “almost on a par” with 2019, and, despite stricter
their families home quickly. Those who could afford travel rules and higher infection rates, “I suspect
it found that the sanitary capsules of private aircraft Europe is just behind”. With continuing negative
were the perfect solution. headlines, Foley believes “it is hard to escape the
Since then, the sector’s performance has been brain fog to see better days”. However, he is confi-
bumpier, although business aviation has fared much dent these will begin with a boost in leisure trips in
better than its commercial counterpart. With airline the summer, followed by a return of business travel
networks slashed and concerns over catching the in the fourth quarter.
virus in crowded airports and cabins, some high-
end travellers have switched to private aircraft for
essential trips. Many have also managed to fit in “There is a skew to lighter
leisure travel – to the likes of Dubai, Florida and ski
resorts – when restrictions permitted. aircraft and to weekend
However, with even politicians, Hollywood stars,
and captains of industry forced to communicate travel. You can also see it in
virtually from their houses for much of the past year,
business aviation has not escaped the impact. This the destinations – Florida
has affected new aircraft deliveries. Figures from the
General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) and ski country taking the
revealed that shipments of business jets in 2020 were
one-fifth lower than in the previous year, with GAMA place of business cities like
noting that pandemic-led supply-chain disruption
contributed to the drop. New York and Chicago”
While the global situation remains uncertain, a new
confidence on the back of vaccine breakthroughs Adam Cowburn Director, Alton

Business aviation Programmes
The pandemic has buffeted private aviation more

lightly than its commercial cousin – some areas
have done surprisingly well. But Covid-19 continues
to have an impact, with activity and sales down
Open for
business Adam Cowburn, a director with aviation consul-
tancy Alton, says that, in the USA at least, leisure
travel “is driving the traffic trend”, with fewer people
using business aircraft for business. “You can see it in
the aircraft mix,” he says. “There is a skew to lighter
aircraft and to weekend travel. You can also see it in
the destinations – Florida and ski country taking the
place of business cities like New York and Chicago.
People have been getting off light jets in shorts rath-
er than heavier jets in suits.”
European exception
In Europe, the situation has been different. There,
tighter lockdowns and a “greater pullback in sched-
uled airline activity” could be a possible driver for
business aviation this year, if demand for essential
travel recovers more quickly than airlines are able
to reinstate services, Cowburn believes. Different
national travel rules could also hamper recovery, with
cross-border business aviation travel lagging domestic
activity in the USA by 12 to 18 months, he suggests.
Like almost all industry events in the past year, the
two main annual business aviation fixtures – EBACE
in Geneva and NBAA BACE in the USA – fell victim
to Covid-19 in 2020. EBACE 2021, due to have taken
place in May, has also been replaced with a virtual pro-
gramme. BACE is scheduled for Las Vegas in October,
but this will mean manufacturers will not have had an
opportunity to showcase products, schedule press
Brian Foley Associates
conferences or meet customers for two years.

Consultant Brian Foley predicts With product development having continued
European business travel will throughout the crisis, some believe NBAA BACE 2021
rebound by the year end could therefore see an outpouring of delayed launch-
es and programme updates by airframers. Dassault

15
– rumoured to have had an announcement on a new
top-of-the-range type originally lined up for EBACE
2020 – flew its newest product to date, the Falcon
6X, for the first time on 10 March. Service entry
for the Pratt & Whitney Canada PW812D-powered,
ultra-wide-cabin jet is due late next year.
The French manufacturer could certainly do with Orders for Dassault Falcon in 2020, compared
some fresh blood in its family. Although Falcon deliver- with 40 in the previous year
ies in 2020 were down by just six from 2019’s total of
40, orders fell to just 15 from 40. Seven of these were
for a French navy maritime surveillance programme, of the impact of the pandemic but because of the
so only eight were business jets. In the company’s withdrawal from production of the older-generation
annual results presentation in February, chief execu- G550. The still-young, large-cabin G500 and G600,
tive Eric Trappier admitted that “uncertainties led our together with the Israeli-built super-midsize G280,
clients not to order new aircraft” in 2020. make up Gulfstream’s range.
After a spate of divestments in recent years, Bom-
Scaling back bardier is now a business aviation-only manufacturer
One of Dassault’s two main rivals, Gulfstream, said in – its rail, regional aircraft, and aerostructures interests
January that interest in its ultra-long-range G650 and together with its one-time crown jewel, the CSeries,
G650ER was holding up, despite the 2019 launch of have all departed. However, even that side of the
its new flagship, the G700. The manufacturer – which Canadian company’s activities is set to get slimmer
delivered 127 aircraft in 2020, compared with 147 the after the announcement earlier this year that it would
year before – intends to continue offering the G650 be stopping Learjet production later in 2021, after
alongside the larger and more expensive G700 after years of struggling sales for the iconic light-jet brand.
the latter enters service in late 2022. The decision leaves Bombardier with two ranges
Phebe Novakovic, chief executive of Gulfstream – the super-midsize Challenger pairing, and the
parent General Dynamics, warned late last year that large-cabin, long-range Global family. In terms of
2021 deliveries were likely to slip again for the Savan- 2020 deliveries, Bombardier almost kept pace with
nah, Georgia-based airframer, not so much because Gulfstream, with shipments falling by 28 to 114 units
Bombardier
Bombardier’s fortunes are closely tied

to performance of flagship Global 7500

Gulfstream
G500 and G600 are key members
of Gulfstream’s large-cabin offering
deliver almost 200 large-cabin jets in a good year.

Airbus believes it can steal a piece of that pie with a
product whose main selling point will be its 73sq m
(786sq ft) cabin. However, drawbacks are its relative
lack of speed and a range of 5,650nm (10,400km),
which leaves it short of the 7,500nm or more offered
by its rivals.
Embraer, which has also dipped a toe in that
large-cabin segment with its airliner-derived Lineage
and Legacy 650, has done much better in the small-
er-sized market, where its Phenom 300 is the strong-
Airbus
est selling light jet. The Brazilian manufacturer also has

two new midsize contenders in the recently reworked
Airbus launched the ACJ TwoTwenty
Praetor 500 and Praetor 600. It delivered 86 aircraft in
in late 2020, based on the A220-100
2020, down from 109 the previous year.
All change
versus the previous year. While the Challengers Like Bombardier, Embraer has had its convulsions at
continue to dominate their segment, much depends a boardroom level, after a planned joint venture with
on the success of the flagship Global 7500, which Boeing on the commercial aviation side collapsed in
entered service in late 2018 and the 50th example of April 2020. However, its corporate aviation activities,
which was delivered in March. which it launched two decades ago, remain a key part
Bombardier, Dassault and Gulfstream have had the of its future. Its most significant development in 2020
top end of business aviation to themselves for decades was the December delivery of the first Praetor 600 to
– although Airbus and Boeing have offered airliner- launch customer Flexjet, part of a 64-aircraft deal for
derived ranges. Now, however, Airbus plans to take Embraer types announced in 2019.
on the likes of the Global 7500 and the G700 with a Textron Aviation – behind the Cessna and Beech-
business jet adapted from the A220-100 – formerly craft brands – remains the biggest player in business
the smaller of Bombardier’s CSeries pair – launching aviation in unit terms. It delivered 559 aircraft in 2020,
the ACJ TwoTwenty in late 2020. Deliveries will start in including 132 Citation jets, down from 600 (206 jets)
early 2023, with Comlux among initial customers. the previous year. The Wichita, Kansas-based manu-
While the larger airliner-derived segment is highly facturer’s in-development products are the delayed
profitable but tiny – mostly head-of-state transports Denali single-engined turboprop and the twin-
– Bombardier, Dassault and Gulfstream can together turboprop SkyCourier, although in February 2021 it

did unveil a cabin update for its 11-year-old Citation

CJ4, rebranding the light jet the CJ4 Gen2.
Late last year, Textron also introduced a new King
Cirrus Aircraft
Air variant, the 260, a smaller sibling to its recently
launched King Air 360. The King Air family, which has
been in production for almost 60 years, continues to
dominate the twin-turboprop market, with 62 deliv-
Vision Jet is one of three types to
eries in 2020. This illustrates how, with regular, subtle
receive Garmin autoland system
improvements, several of the types introduced in the
great 1960s’ expansion of general aviation remain
popular today.
However, Textron’s ambitions to move into the Meanwhile, an entity called AML late last year
large-cabin segment to compete with the likes of became the latest investor to take on the assets
Bombardier’s Challenger 650 and Dassault’s 2000LXS of Eclipse, the Albuquerque enterprise behind the
remain on hold following the suspension of the Hem- original very-light jet, the Eclipse 500.
isphere programme in mid-2019, four years after the As well as the effect on travel, Covid-19 is likely to
4,500nm-range type’s unveiling. That was triggered by cast a shadow over the industry for some time, with
the failure of Safran’s Silvercrest engine to deliver as cash-constrained manufacturers forced to delay or
advertised, something that also put paid to Dassault’s cancel investment in product development.
5X and led to its replacement with the 6X. However, despite manufacturers being denied one
of their biggest networking and promotional oppor-
Brighter spots tunities with the cancellation of EBACE, many in the
Other manufacturers entered the second year of the industry do foresee better times ahead, with business
Covid-19 crisis on the back of a reasonably strong movers and shakers desperate to ditch virtual meet-
2020. Deliveries of Honda Aircraft’s sole product, the ings for human interaction.
HA-420 HondaJet, held up well, falling from 36 in “Yes, platforms like Zoom will remain important for
2019 to 31 in 2020. The 100th example of its rival in business co-ordination,” says Foley. “But that need to
the light-jet segment, Pilatus’s PC-24, was delivered visit factories and to meet face to face will cancel out
at the turn of the year. The Swiss manufacturer the Zoom effect, along with new entrants coming into
shipped 40 examples in 2020, along with 83 units of the market.”
100
its PC-12 single-engined turboprop: an almost identi-
cal performance to 2019.
For Cirrus, Daher and Piper, one of the most signifi-
cant developments of the past 12 months has been the
certification of Garmin’s autoland safety system on the
single-engined Vision Jet, the TBM 940, and the M600,
respectively. The device, which each airframer brands
differently, is designed to take control of and land the
aircraft if the pilot becomes incapacitated and has been Total deliveries of Pilatus PC-24 as of early 2021, with 40
hailed as one of the most important developments in examples shipped during 2020
general aviation safety in years.
A question mark remains over the future of two
once-innovative business aircraft programmes and Cowburn agrees that a recovery will quickly kick
the manufacturing operations behind them. An Italian in once immediate health fears abate. “There is no
state-appointed administrator has shortlisted four structural brake on demand,” he says. “And there is the
companies keen on acquiring Piaggio Aerospace, competitive impact too – if your business rival is visit-
manufacturer of the distinct Avanti twin-pusher. ing a customer face to face, you cannot afford not to.”
George Galanopoulos, managing director of Luxa-
viation UK, believes that, after a “tough” start to 2021,
demand throughout Europe will pick up substantial-
ly in the summer, with leisure leading the way, and
business travel following from September.
“People are desperate to get away, and have been
holding back on arranging meetings, so there is a lot
of pent-up demand,” he says. “However, there will still
be that fear of Covid, so people of a certain wealth
will be attracted by private aviation.”
This time last year, after organisers had taken the
unprecedented step of pulling the plug on EBACE,
few in business aviation imagined there would be a
feeling of deja vu 12 months on.
However, six months has proved a long time in the
pandemic, and – assuming vaccine roll-outs remain
Embraer
on track and there are no surprises with jab-resistant

variants – the industry landscape could look very
Praetor 600 is one of two recent
different come October 2021, when NBAA BACE is
midsize updates to Embraer’s range
due to open its doors in Las Vegas. Z

Upping
the pace
The determined band of airframers keen to see

a reintroduction of supersonic passenger services
are busy working with suppliers, backers and
regulators to turn their plans into reality
Boom Supersonic
Boom’s conceptual Overture airliner will fly at Mach 2.2

Cover story Supersonics
Jon Hemmerdinger Tampa “The goal of the flight-test programme is to safely

expand the envelope of XB-1 to supersonic speeds,”
Boom says. “This will be done through an incremen-
I
t seems reasonable to assume that at some point tal build-up of the aircraft performance while being
in the future – be it 2030, 2050, or whenever – civil monitored by a chase aircraft and a control room.”
supersonic jets will again be zipping between the All the while, Boom will continue developing Over-
world’s distant cities. ture, its focus on “completing the systems definition
Exactly when that time might come remains open review… and finalising Overture’s design”, it says.
to debate, but there is no doubt that in the past year “We are building Overture [by] leveraging the pro-
several civil supersonic jet developers stepped closer cesses, design methods, principles and relationships
to making their projects a reality. we have built through XB-1,” the company adds. “We
The handful of companies in the sector spent the have been advancing Overture’s conceptual design
past year partnering with major aerospace suppliers throughout the XB-1 programme with these learnings.”
(including engine makers), lining up buyers, hiring
known aerospace executives and, in the case of
Boom Supersonic, rolling out a demonstrator jet. “XB-1 is currently in the
Several companies predict their supersonic jets
will be flying by 2030, if not earlier. And their efforts integrated testing phase,
align with supersonic projects under way with the
US government, including rules being written by the where we are testing all
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and NASA’s
development of its X-59 Quiet Supersonic Technolo- aspects of the aircraft,
gy (QueSST) demonstrator.
All of this during a pandemic. from landing gear to
Evaluating technologies avionics systems, to
“XB-1 remains on track to fly in 2021,” Denver-based
Boom tells FlightGlobal. “XB-1 is currently in the inte- ensure its flight readiness”
grated testing phase, where we are testing all aspects
of the aircraft, from landing gear to avionics systems, Boom Supersonic
to ensure its flight readiness.”
XB-1 is Boom’s supersonic demonstrator – a sin-
gle-pilot, triple GE Aviation J85-15-powered craft with The Overture is to be a Mach 2.2, 65- to 88-pas-
which the company intends to evaluate technologies senger airliner that will cost upwards of $200 million
and designs ultimately intended for a conceptual and, Boom says, be capable of profitably operating
passenger airliner called Overture. some 500 transoceanic routes.
In October 2020, Boom rolled out the needle-nosed Also this year, Boom expects to select a location at
XB-1 during a slick virtual event. which to manufacture the Overture. It aims to begin
The XB-1’s test programme will involve ground and manufacturing in 2022 and to reveal the aircraft to
low-speed taxi tests at Centennial airport in Colorado, the world with a roll-out in 2025. First flight would
and flight tests over the Mojave Desert. Boom has follow in 2026.
hired Mojave, California-based aerospace company “We expect Overture to begin carrying passengers
Flight Research to assist with flight testing. by 2029,” Boom says.
Boom Supersonic
XB-1 supersonic demonstrator is on course

to make its first flight during this year

Virgin Galactic
Virgin Galactic’s delta-wing civil jet will be capable of

reaching Mach 3.0 and cruising higher than 60,000ft
Boom has already secured at least two potential Though the civil supersonic sector must overcome
airline customers. Those include Japan Airlines, which various technological and regulatory hurdles, the jets
in 2017 invested $10 million in the company, taking will come to market, according to aerospace consul-
purchase rights for 20 jets in the process. Virgin tancy AIR. It predicts manufacturers will deliver more
Group has also taken “pre-orders” for 10 Overture than 300 civil supersonic jets by 2040, with delivery
jets, Boom says. rates hitting about 30 aircraft annually in the 2030s.
Founder and chief executive Blake Scholl has predict- Fractional aircraft ownership companies will buy about
ed the Overture will be such a hit that Boom will even- half of those jets, with private owners taking one-quar-
tually build more units than Boeing has produced 787s. ter of the total and governments 17%, AIR predicts.
As the XB-1 has progressed, Boom has beefed up
its team and cadre of industry partners. In February, NetJets backs Aerion
it announced that former Boeing chief executive Another supersonic player, Boeing-backed Aerion
Philip Condit had joined as an adviser. Supersonic, has also kept busy in recent months, push-
Rolls-Royce came on board in 2020 as an en- ing forward development of a business jet called AS2.
gine partner for the Overture, agreeing to evaluate Aerion made a splash in March when it revealed a
whether “existing engine architecture can be adapted partnership with two Berkshire Hathaway subsidiaries:
for supersonic flight”, Boom and R-R said last July. fractional aircraft ownership company NetJets and avi-
R-R has said an Overture powerplant could potential- ation training provider FlightSafety International.
ly be based on a Trent turbofan’s core. Under the agreement, NetJets acquired rights to
Last November, Collins Aerospace also joined the purchase 20 AS2s. Powered by three GE Affinity
Overture team as developer of the jet’s nacelles and turbofans, the jet will carry eight to 10 passengers
other structures. and have a 4,200nm (7,780km) range at M1.4, and a
More recently, in March, Boom received a capital 5,400nm range at M0.95, according to Aerion.
investment of an undisclosed sum from American NetJets also agreed to become the sole business jet
Express Ventures, the innovation finance arm of that operator on a planned booking portal called Aerion
financial services company. Connect. FlightSafety will help Aerion create a “super-
300
sonic flight training academy”, Aerion says.
While far from a firm order, securing NetJets’ back-
ing is no small accomplishment – it is, after all, among
the world’s largest operators of business jets, with a
fleet of more than 750 aircraft.
Aerion is working along a timeline that calls for
the AS2 to make its maiden flight in 2025 and enter
service in 2027. Aerion says it will soften the AS2’s
Number of civil supersonic jets that will be delivered by sonic boom by leveraging a phenomenon called
2040, according to aerospace consultancy AIR “Mach cut-off”, which occurs when atmospheric and

The Boston-based company is also evaluating loca-

tions at which to house a manufacturing site, and is
seeking a partner to assist with fabrication, he adds.
Spike aims to develop the S-512, a twin-engined,
M1.6 civil jet, for certification by 2028.
The company has spent the past year finalising the
S-512’s design to ensure it meets range, efficiency and
Aerion Supersonic
sound requirements. Spike says the S-512 will be suited
for both overwater and overland flights, thanks to
Aerion AS2 is due to fly in 2025
aerodynamic features that will ensure it does not gen-
and enter service in 2027
erate a “loud, disturbing sonic boom on the ground”.
In a shift, Spike increasingly views the airline mar-
Exosonic is developing M1.8 jet ket as the most opportunistic for the S-512. Spike had
with military application pitched the aircraft primarily as a 12- to 18-passenger
business jet. “It is now the primary market we are
going for,” Kachoria says of the airline sector. “We defi-
nitely believe it’s going to be the game changer here.”
The S-512, outfitted with up to 22 first-class seats,
would be perfect for operating long-haul routes such
as New York to Liverpool or Marseille, Kachoria says.
In February, Spike said it had partnered with Indian
company Tech Mahindra, which will assist it with
stress analysis and fuselage work. Aerospace veter-
ans have also joined Spike’s team in the past year,
including Bill Boisture, who has been chief executive
4,200
Exosonic
flight conditions cause booms to deflect up, not

down, according to the company.
Like Boom, Aerion has secured an impressive array Range in nautical miles of the Aerion AS2, flying at M1.4.
of suppliers as partners. Universal Avionics will make The jet will be powered by three GE Affinity turbofans
the AS2’s enhanced flight vision system, BAE Sys-
tems will develop a fly-by-wire flight-control sys-
tem and Spirit AeroSystems is working on the jet’s of Hawker Beechcraft, president and chief operating
forward fuselage. Other partners include Aernnova, officer of Gulfstream Aerospace and president of
Collins, GKN Aerospace, Honeywell, Potez, Safran NetJets. Others include former Virgin Australia Air-
Landing Systems and Safran Nacelles. lines group executive John Thomas, Boeing and Das-
Aerion also stands out from the pack for its pro- sault Aviation veteran Brian Foley, and Ray Benvenuti,
gress in building an actual manufacturing site for its a finance executive who had been chief executive
supersonic jet. Before year-end, it is to break ground of Stellex Aerostructures.
on Aerion Park, a campus and headquarters in Mel- In 2020 another supersonic developer joined the
bourne, Florida, at which AS2 production will begin in fray: Virgin Galactic. In August last year, the company
2023, the company says. unveiled the design of a R-R-powered, delta-wing civil
Another competitor, Spike Aerospace, intends this jet capable of reaching speeds of M3.0, carrying nine
year to begin building a supersonic demonstrator and to 19 passengers and cruising higher than 60,000ft.
to fly that manned aircraft “toward the end of next
year”, says founder and chief executive Vik Kachoria. Military transports
While the supersonic developers are eyeing the civilian
aviation market, executives have said their products
could be adapted for use by governments or militaries.
Indeed, a 3 March report from the US government’s
Congressional Research Service highlights several
potential government applications for superson-
ic passenger jets. They could carry heads of state
during times of conflict, or be used to shuttle nuclear
warheads to forward bases, enabling such weapons
to be stored in more-secure facilities in the USA, the
Spike Aerospace
report says. Supersonic jets could also be deployed

on urgent humanitarian or special-operations mis-
sions, such as those involving hostage rescue or
embassy defence, it adds.
Spike says its S-512 will be suited for
The US Air Force (USAF) has shown interest. In
overwater and overland operations
2020, several companies – among them Boom, Los

“We are predicting first flight

to be late spring, early
summer timeframe 2022”
Craig Nickol Head of NASA’s Low-Boom
Flight Demonstrator project
Lockheed Martin
X-59’s long, slender fuselage design

should greatly soften its sonic boom
Angeles-based Exosonic and Atlanta-based Her- system and attached wing skins. Workers have also
meus – won contracts to begin developing a super- attached the jet’s empennage to its fuselage, and
sonic military executive transport. are “getting ready to mate the fuselage to the wing”,
“We are showing the air force what an executive Nickol said in March. “Structurally, we should have
cabin can look like at 1.8 times the speed of sound,” what looks like an aircraft within a few weeks.”
says Norris Tie, who co-founded Exosonic several The X-59 has features intended to significantly soften
years ago with chief technical officer Tim MacDonald. its sonic boom. It has a long, slender fuselage, and most
Exosonic has been working to develop a 70-seat external features are atop – not below – its fuselage.
M1.8 civil supersonic jet with 5,000nm range, for ser- Powered by a single 22,000lb-thrust (95kN) GE
vice entry in the mid-2030s. It also is tweaking that F414-100 engine, the X-59 will achieve speeds of M1.4
design for potential military applications. and cruise at 55,000ft, NASA says.
The company's conceptual 31-passenger military The agency has already received two F414s – one
transport, developed with the USAF’s Presidential and primary, one spare – and will conduct an engine
Executive Airlift Directorate, would be outfitted with “fit check” this summer, Nickol says.
two private suites: one for three passengers, the other The X-59’s initial “checkout flights” will be con-
for eight. The jet would also have 20 business-class ducted from Palmdale. Next, the team will move the
seats, two galleys and two lavatories, Exosonic says. demonstrator to NASA’s Armstrong Flight Research
Center in Edwards, California, where they will put it
X-59 advances through a two-part flight-test programme.
As the various companies work to bring superson- The first phase of flight testing will last about nine
ic civil jets to market, the US government has been months and involve envelope expansion and airwor-
advancing related efforts. thiness evaluations. NASA will then take ownership
In January, the FAA finalised a rule intended to ease of the jet from Lockheed and begin the second
the process by which companies obtain approvals to flight-test phase, also lasting about nine months and
perform civil supersonic flight tests. That followed a involving “acoustic validation” – measuring the sonic
March 2020 proposed rule to establish noise stand- boom, Nickol says.
ards – only at take-off and landing – for a new class
of supersonic aircraft. The noise proposal begins the Sound checks
FAA’s process of again permitting overland civil super- NASA intends to deploy the X-59 between 2024 and
sonic flight, which it has essentially banned since 1973. 2026 on “community overflight testing” missions,
But overturning that ban requires the industry to during which it will fly the jet over the USA and sur-
solve the primary roadblock: disturbance caused by vey public reaction to the noise. Regulators can use
sonic booms. NASA is hard at work addressing that that data to write supersonic flight rules, NASA says.
issue through development of the X-59, a jet intend- NASA has hired Santa Clara, California-based Crys-
ed to demonstrate a so-called “low-boom” design. tal Instruments to provide equipment that will meas-
Lockheed Martin is designing and manufacturing the ure the X-59’s boom. The system will collect “wave-
X-59 at its famed Skunk Works site in Palmdale, Cali- form and spectral data related to sonic booms and
fornia, and will be performing X-59 test flights. sonic thumps”, and enable NASA to “perform various
NASA had aimed to have the X-59 airborne this year. specialised operations for real-time sonic-thump
But production shutdowns and delayed component analysis”, NASA says. The agency will initially deploy
deliveries – blame Covid-19 – forced the team to push the system at Armstrong and later in a 30nm-long
back first flight until 2022, says Craig Nickol, head of “ground microphone array” near Edwards AFB.
NASA’s Low-Boom Flight Demonstrator project. The X-59’s design should mean that its boom, meas-
The team has overcome some relatively minor de- ured on the ground, will be less than 75 perceived dB –
sign issues that have required some rework, but has like “distant thunder”, Nickol has said. By comparison,
faced “no major showstoppers”, he says. Concorde had a boom of 105 perceived dB.
“We are predicting first flight to be late spring, “All of our predications are currently pointing to-
early summer timeframe 2022,” says Nickol. ward the fact that this aircraft should be able to meet
The team recently “closed out” manufacturing those requirements,” Nickol says. “It looks good, and
of the X-59’s wing, having installed the wing’s fuel we don’t see any issues hitting that mark.” Z

The idea of eVTOL aircraft carrying passengers
above crowded cities has rapidly moved from
pie-in-the-sky to near-term prospect – but can
public perception keep pace with the technology?
Upwardly
mobile
Kate Sarsfield London “Investment in start-ups hit $907 million in the first
half of 2020 – almost 20 times the level in the whole
of 2016,” says the report. This interest has continued
U
rban air mobility (UAM) has become the new into 2021, with millions more pumped into the market.
frontier in aviation, driven by a desire for small, What has become apparent in recent years, accord-
quiet and sustainable aircraft to provide mass ing to Duncan Walker, co-founder and chief executive
transportation for intra-city, short-haul and of leading UAM infrastructure developer Skyports,
regional travel. is the shift in the type of investor. “Huge amounts
What seemed like a pipe dream less than a decade of capital are flowing into the sector from blue chip,
ago looks set to become a reality, as the sector’s gold plated institutional investors and strategic
early movers prepare their innovative, electric vertical partners [such as Uber Technologies, United Airlines,
take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft programmes Stellantis and Baron Capital Group].”
for commercial service within the next three years.
In its recent analysis of the global UAM market, man-
agement consultancy Roland Berger forecast there
would be around 160,000 eVTOL aircraft in service by
2050, generating annual revenues of $90 billion.
Active programmes
“In just a few years [this sector] has gone from ‘pie in
the sky’ concepts to a bustling industry with a multi-
tude of passenger drones, air taxis and longer-range
jets in development or undergoing trials,” says Roland
Berger. The report identifies around 100 active pro-
grammes in development globally, with more than
half based in Europe.
“The market’s flight trajectory is clearly only go-
ing one way,” says Roland Berger. The consultancy
attributes this bullish outlook to the strong backing
Skyports
from investors in UAM developers, despite the “lack Singapore hosted Voloport air taxi trial in 2019
of a proven business model”.

Business aviation eVTOL
Volocopter
Volocopter’s 2X could make commercial
eVTOL flights during 2024 Paris Olympics
Walker. “Since then, I’ve witnessed a palpable desire

“Two years ago, I would among governments, regulators, technology compa-
nies, established and start-up aircraft manufacturers
have said there is no way and infrastructure developers to work together to
create this new mass transportation market.”
the UAM market will A key turning point for Walker came in October
2019, following the successful public demonstration
become a physical reality in Singapore’s Marina Bay of partner Volocopter’s 2X
eVTOL prototype and Skyports’ first full-scale air taxi
for another decade, but my vertiport, dubbed the Voloport.
“Public acceptance of this new form of transport
view has since changed” has long been the primary hurdle [for UAM develop-
ers] and at this event we and Volocopter successfully
Duncan Walker Chief executive, Skyports demonstrated in real time the UAM market in action,”
says Walker.
His view is echoed by Germany’s Volocopter, which
He describes the willingness of these companies is aiming to be first to market in Europe with the pro-
to invest in the fledgling UAM sector “as a good duction version and fourth iteration of its two-pas-
indication that they view this market as low risk, and senger, 19nm (35km)-range, 18-motor eVTOL air taxi,
likely to happen”. known as the VoloCity.
Their backing is also a reflection, Walker adds, of
a maturing industry, rising confidence in the tech- Environmentally friendly
nologies being developed, and positive regulatory “We have notched up over 1,000h on the test fleet to
developments such as the introduction in 2019 of the date in our quest to create a safe, efficient and envi-
European Union Aviation Safety Agency’s (EASA’s) ronmentally-friendly aircraft,” says Volocopter chief
new special condition for VTOL (SC-VTOL) airworthi- commercial officer Christian Bauer.
ness regulations – the dedicated certification stand- The Bruschal-headquartered company, one of the
ard for Europe-based eVTOL aircraft. UAM market’s early pioneers, recently raised €200
“Two years ago, I would have said there is no way million ($239 million) in an oversubscribed Series
the UAM market will become a physical reality for an- D funding round, bringing the total investment to
other decade, but my view has since changed,” says €322 million. “This has put us on track to launch

Annalisa Russell-Smith/Flyby Technology
Drones are being tried in roles such as

organ transport and cargo delivery
commercial services with VoloCity in 2024 following air vehicles – of which eVTOL types are after all only
certification,” says Bauer. an extension – play in everyday lives, such as organ
He says gaining public approval of the aircraft and transport and cargo delivery, and illustrate the im-
the UAM concept is a primary hurdle if Volocopter is portant developments in this technology. “It’s about
to stick to this aggressive timetable. It is working well education and reassurance,” Cervenka says.
so far. As well as the public demonstration in Singa- There is also no defined regulatory path for auton-
pore, the company has also conducted successful omous passenger vehicles currently, he says, “so the
public flights of test aircraft in Dubai, Helsinki, Las industry’s focus for the time being must be on growing
Vegas and Stuttgart. public acceptance for the piloted [eVTOL] models”.
In September 2019, 12,000 spectators in the Ger- Due to enter service in 2024, the electrically pow-
man city took part in a survey led by the University of ered X4 is designed to carry a pilot and four pas-
Stuttgart to gauge the public appetite for the 2X. The sengers up to 104nm (192km), which Cervenka says
study revealed that nearly 70% of respondents would will “open up the short-haul transport market in a
be likely or very likely to use the eVTOL aircraft: a compelling way”.
70%
result Bauer describes as “remarkably high”.
Approval rating
A survey conducted following the demonstration
a month later in Singapore of the full 2X air taxi
experience delivered an approval rating of 75%. The
majority of respondents at both events noted that
the X2’s low noise profile “exceeded their expecta-
tions”, says Bauer. Volume of respondents likely to use an eVTOL service,
However, feedback from both surveys reveals that among those surveyed at 2019 demonstration in Stuttgart
there is little public appetite for autonomous eVTOL
operations, which is the end goal for Volocopter and
the UAM sector. “The X4 will be one of the safest and quietest pas-
“I cannot see pilotless passenger aircraft entering senger aircraft on the market, with a noise footprint
service before the end of this decade at the earliest,” 30 times lower than a helicopter in cruise and 100
says Michael Cervenka, chief executive of UK start-up times quieter than a helicopter in hover,” he says.
Vertical Aerospace, developer of the five-seat VA-X4 First flight is scheduled later this year from the
eVTOL aircraft. company’s Bristol base, and the company plans to
“It’s a potentially long journey to automation, which increase public engagement with the X4 through air-
will likely come with the rise of the new digital friend- borne demonstrations and marketing surveys as the
ly generation,” Cervenka says. programme progresses.
To gain the public’s trust in pilotless aircraft, indus- Such is the importance of societal acceptance to
try must demonstrate the vital role that unmanned the success of UAM operations that EASA launched

Business aviation eVTOL
a dedicated study in November 2020 designed to institutes, the last of these will deal with social and
evaluate the public’s appetite for commercial pas- environmental issues.
senger eVTOL services. “We expect Pontoise airfield to become a technical
Set for publication in May 2021, the study is de- playground and act as a sandbox for acceptability
signed, says the regulator, “to gauge EU citizens’ challenges,” says ADP’s head of innovation and cor-
preparedness to accept this new mode of transport porate venture Sebastien Couturier.
and collect their possible concerns and expectations, He adds that public engagement in the trials will be
for instance related to safety, security, privacy and key to the venture’s success. “The local community
environmental impact.” will be an active stakeholder in the project and will
The study includes research work as well as a be invited to participate in live showcases, and offer
survey with the residents of six unnamed European their feedback,” says Couturier.
cities, which EASA describes as a “potential target
market for the future deployment of UAM”. The re-
sults “will help us prepare an impact assessment and “I cannot see pilotless
a future regulatory proposal and will also serve to
raise awareness of UAM across the EU”, it says. passenger aircraft
Commercial services entering service before
Paris is the frontrunner to host Europe’s first com-
mercial eVTOL aircraft services, with a 2024 launch the end of this decade at
timed to coincide with the Olympic Games in the
French capital. In preparation for the launch, an the earliest”
industry consortium led by Airports de Paris (ADP),
RATP Group, and Choose Paris Region, is creating Michael Cervenka Chief executive, Vertical Aerospace
what it describes as a “full UAM ecosystem around
the Paris region”.
Starting in June at Pontoise-Cormeilles-en-Vex- The trials are expected to last until the end of 2023.
in airfield, 25km northwest of the capital, some 30 “By that time, we should have acquired sufficient
participants from across the aerospace industry relevant information and operational data in order to
including Airbus, CAE, Pipistrel, Safran Electronics launch the selected routes for the Olympic Games in
and Defense, Skyports and Volocopter, will begin a 2024 and beyond,” Couturier says.
series of trials supported by EASA and Eurocontrol “We hope the success of this venture will also
covering five key areas. provide a springboard to further expansion of UAM
These span vehicle development, for manufactur- operations throughout Europe.”
ers and equipment suppliers; urban infrastructure, Skyports’ Walker describes the UAM market as a
targeted at energy companies and vertiport design- “new form of transport for everyone, which just like
ers; operations, for suppliers of intermodal solutions, airline travel, will eventually become normalised”.
maintenance, or digital platforms; airspace integra- Everything is going in the right direction, and it
tion, involving suppliers of unmanned traffic man- will be “capital and brains that get us to the end
agement or communication/navigation systems; and point”, he says. ◗
public acceptance. Led by laboratories or research See p62
Vertical Aerospace
Electrically-powered VA-X4 is
due to enter service in 2024

Vertical Aerospace
VA-X4 will carry a pilot and four passengers 100nm,

but be equally suited to shorter-duration flights
Dominic Perry London Crucially, however, the “pace and agility” of F1 design
and engineering has been married with “real deep
aerospace experience and certification [expertise]”.
T
he premise and promise of Vertical Aerospace That experience is reflected in Vertical’s team,
are not unique: to deliver within the next few which has been drawn from the likes of Airbus, Bom-
years a new, eco-friendly mode of air transport bardier and Rolls-Royce. In fact, Cervenka is an R-R
that will revolutionise urban mobility. alumnus, having most recently held the post of head
To that end, Bristol, UK-based Vertical is develop- of future business propositions, reporting to chief
ing its VA-X4 electric vertical take-off and landing technology officer (CTO) Paul Stein.
(eVTOL) aircraft, which is being prepared for service Cervenka points out that of the combined 1,200
entry in 2024. years of experience at Vertical, around 800 of those
Featuring eight electrically powered rotors – the are in aerospace engineering. “It has started with a
front four of which tilt – the winged VA-X4 can team that knows how to do certification,” he says.
accommodate four passengers and a pilot, and is And around 25 of its 120-strong team have an F1
designed for journeys of up to 104nm (192km). background, including CTO Mike Gascoyne; a legend
But Vertical is just one of hundreds of companies in motor racing circles.
globally vying to do exactly the same thing.
What sets the company apart, argues chief execu- Pilots preferred
tive Michael Cervenka, is its genesis. It was founded In its five-year existence, Vertical has so far flown two
by energy entrepreneur Steve Fitzpatrick from the scaled demonstrators, the VA-X1 and -X2, which were
ashes of an ill-fated foray into Formula One (F1) with more traditional-looking – in so much as anything is
the Manor Racing team. traditional-looking in this new segment – wingless
Looking to bring some of that motorsport engi- multi-rotor vehicles.
neering know-how into adjacent industries, Fitz- But there is a significant jump in the size and prom-
patrick settled on aerospace with the aim of disrupt- ised performance of the VA-X4 versus those proto-
ing sustainable aviation. types. And of the five people the VA-X4 is expected
As Cervenka puts it, experience in key F1 tech- to accommodate, one of those will be a pilot, based
nologies such as lightweight composites, advanced on a belief that “we don’t think autonomy is viable,
simulation and high-density powertrains are “useful at least in this decade or well into the next”.
ingredients for an electric aircraft developer”. Therefore, to carry four passengers and a pilot over
“Having those F1 roots means there are probably a the distances envisaged and achieve the required
number of differences between us and the competi- economy – making the aircraft commercially viable
tion,” he says. to operate – a different architecture was required,

Business aviation Vertical Aerospace
UK start-up Vertical Aerospace believes it has

a headstart on its UAM rivals, thanks to a spirit
forged on motor racing’s elite grid that gives it the
“pace and agility” of F1 design and engineering
In pole
position
says Cervenka, combining vertical lift with a “highly
efficient wing”.
Swapping battery packs was also ruled out, he says,
owing to both practical considerations (the uncer-
With a wingspan of 15m (50ft), the VA-X4 will tainty of whether a landing site would have spares)
be sized to access around 80% of existing helipad and the unnecessary safety risk of having staff handle
infrastructure. Crucially, it will be a versatile machine, several hundred kilogrammes of cells.
equally adaptable for short flights of around 15 miles While the batteries will be developed in-house,
(25km), “using only a small amount of battery Vertical is sourcing other elements of the vehi-
charge”, as it is for longer-range missions. cle elsewhere: R-R on 9 March became the latest
Battery charging time after such a short hop should programme partner, signing on to provide the VA-
be around 10min, says Cervenka, which is “critical for X4’s electric propulsion system. It follows existing
vehicle economics”. suppliers Honeywell (flight-controls) and Solvay
“There’s no use flying 20 miles and then having the (composite technology).
vehicle sat on the ground for 40 minutes between This is a “different philosophy” from its rivals,
flights,” he says. Cervenka says, some of whom are developing individ-
ual systems from scratch.
Relationships count
“Our strong view is that the best way to approach
this [development] is to combine the pace and
agility of a start-up with the expertise of suppli-
ers.” Essentially, Vertical has no desire to reinvent
the wheel: why waste time and effort designing,
say, flight controls or a powertrain, when there are
companies out there for whom such things are their
bread and butter?
Those supplier relationships “really enable us to
leapfrog some of our competitors”, he argues.
But with an aggressive timetable to stick to and the
Z Ryzner/Shutterstock
R-R agreement only recently minted, the planned first

flight this year will be without the “highly integrated”
powertrain of the final version.
Vertical was spun out of experience
“To build a prototype in this timeframe requires
with Manor Racing Formula One team
some compromises,” says Cervenka. It will still be

Business aviation Vertical Aerospace
VA-X2 prototype was a
‘conventional’ wingless
multi-rotor vehicle
a vehicle that is “very close to certifiable”, but

without the “optimised performance” of the eventual
propulsion system.
Meanwhile, talks are under way with “some major
players” – airlines included – to secure launch orders.
“We are in discussions. We are seeing a lot of inter-
est,” says Cervenka.
While not ruling out Vertical operating some air-
craft itself, he points out that is not the company’s
Vertical Aerospace
area of expertise and that there would be a “huge
cash impact” from creating such a service.
Profitability should come in the “2024-2025 time-
frame”, says Cervenka, which will be in part dictated
by the number of customer deposits it takes. At the
moment, however, with development ongoing and
no revenue coming in, Vertical is a loss-making busi- on the market in the same timeframe, it is vital that
ness: in the year ended 31 December 2019 – the most Vertical hits its certification and service entry targets.
recent period for which accounts are available – it “We are as confident as anyone can be in this
made a pre-tax loss of £8.1 million ($11.2 million). game,” says Cervenka. “Compared with a year ago,
During that 12 months it continued to be bankrolled we have a really good basis for certification require-
by parent company Imagination Industries (which ments [from the regulators].”
itself registered a pre-tax loss of £114 million during While he concedes “the programme is aggres-
2019), including an interest-bearing loan of £11 million. sive” – and, this being aerospace, there is always the
Cervenka says that owner Fitzpatrick’s support potential for unforeseen hiccups along the way – he is
has given Vertical “an incredible leg up”, but that “it confident in the design, as “we have been looking at
doesn’t make sense to winged vehicles for quite a period of time.”
go all the way to cer- Equally, any timeline slippage is likely to be modest:
tification funded by a “We aren’t talking about missing it by years if we do
private individual”. miss it. We have an opportunity to gain first-mover
advantage: that’s measured in years, not in months.
Quick start A slight slip will not materially matter in terms of in-
As such, an explo- vestor risk or market capture opportunity,” he says.
ration of external
funding opportuni-
ties is “progressing”, “There is clearly an easy
although he thinks
that Fitzpatrick will market demand for tens
“remain majority
shareholder for a long of thousands [of eVTOL
period of time”.
Of course, when you aircraft] in short order”
Vertical Aerospace
are eyeing a market

for possibly tens of Michael Cervenka Chief executive, Vertical Aerospace
thousands of aircraft,
losses now pale into
insignificance against Despite his having spent a goodly part of his career
the potential rewards at R-R, Cervenka has not been thrown by joining a
if you can be first to market. Cervenka expects that fast-paced aerospace start-up into which the compli-
Vertical will “have produced several thousand [VA- cating factor of an F1 attitude has been added.
X4s] within the first few years” after “quite a quick” “When you bring different cultures and organisa-
ramp-up. “There is clearly an easy market demand tions together there are always challenges, but we are
for tens of thousands [of eVTOL aircraft] in relatively really motivated to be successful,” he says, adding that
short order,” he says. this has led to a “collaborative” mindset taking root.
The location of its main production site has still Besides, with his latter years at R-R spent looking
to be decided, however. “Our strong view is that at cutting-edge and disruptive technologies, Cerven-
we would like it to be in the UK, at least the initial ka had great preparation for his current role.
assembly line; it’s a really great place to build a future “The difference is clearly that we are able to move
electric aircraft company.” very fast because we don’t have the legacy,” he says.
But that partly depends on what level of govern- While he means that there is an absence of bureau-
ment support can be obtained, he adds. Initial cer- cracy or a set way of doing things, Vertical also lacks
tification will be sought from the UK’s Civil Aviation legacy in another sense: it has no heritage, history or
Authority, to be followed by European approval. reputation. That “creates some challenges”, he says,
As previously noted, Vertical is in a crowded mar- noting that half the battle is “creating credibility”.
ket, but Cervenka says there is already a “narrow- Still, in such a fledgling segment, credibility is only
ing” of the field taking place “into the more credible likely to be achieved a few years down the road. In
players”. That said, given that there are probably half the meantime, F1-influenced Vertical is hoping that it
a dozen serious rivals who are likely to have vehicles can secure pole position. Z

Business aviation Environment
Signature Flight Support has seen customer

demand that is ‘off the charts’
Sustainable
strategy
The business aviation sector is embracing
alternative aviation fuels as it seeks to meet rising
customer demand and play its part in reducing
Signature Flight Support
the industry’s greenhouse gas emissions

BlueBarron Photo/Shutterstock
NetJets has seen interest from customers in

environmental issues take off since 2019
Mark Pilling London has committed to buying 1.3 million litres (5 million
USgal) of SAF from Neste, and by the end of March,
H
all customers taking fuel from Signature at the airport
opefully, at some point during their career, have been receiving the SAF/Jet A-1 combination.
people in the sales world are lucky enough to
feel the buzz of selling a product that literally Growing concern
flies off the shelf. NetJets has bought 792,000 litres of Signature’s
Tony Lefebvre is incredulous that the product in SAF supply for the San Francisco hub, explains Pat
question is boring old aviation fuel. “We have seen Gallagher, its head of sales, marketing and services.
uptake of customer demand that is off the charts,” Before the onset of the pandemic, NetJets, one of the
says the chief operating officer of Signature Flight world’s largest private jet operators, had been receiv-
Support, one of the world’s leading fixed-base opera- ing “a great number of enquiries about what we were
tors (FBOs), with a network of 200 locations. doing from a sustainability standpoint”, he says.
However, the product is not simply regular Jet A-1 In 2019, this topic had overtaken faster wi-fi on
fuel, but sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), bought by board aircraft as the most pressing issue, but as the
Signature, supplied by Finnish SAF manufacturer pandemic took hold, it took a back seat for a few
Neste and delivered to launch customer and operator months. Now, environmental concerns have returned
NetJets at San Francisco International airport. This in a big way, with customer interest ranging from
landmark deal, announced in September 2020, is one high net-worth individuals to Fortune 500 companies
of many in recent months that demonstrate a signif- seeking an overview of NetJets’ sustainability strat-
icant ramp-up in commitments by the private and egy to ensure they can satisfy their environmental,
business aviation community to sustainability action. social and governance targets, says Gallagher.
Signature had been thinking about establishing the NetJets took another step forward on its commit-
industry’s first permanent supply of SAF for private ment to SAF at the start of this year, building on its
20%
aviation for some time, but availability was restrict-
ed, and customers were interested but not always
convinced, explains Lefebvre. The pandemic helped
change that. Commercial airlines have not needed
as much SAF because their networks are moribund,
giving others a chance to step in.
“We said to ourselves, let’s flip an entire airport,”
says Lefebvre. That airport is San Francisco. Signa-
ture began fuelling NetJets aircraft with a blend level Stake acquired by NetJets in WasteFuel SAF production
of 35% SAF to 65% regular Jet A-1 last December. It start-up in January 2020

deal with Signature. “Rather than just procure SAF, remains relevant and powerful enough with a dec-
we wanted to be far more strategic than that and ade having passed since it was originally written.
invest in its production,” says Gallagher. There is pressure from all sides, especially large
In January, the fractional aircraft ownership corporations, to do more. The business aviation
company announced that it was taking a 20% stake sector is all too aware that it must step up on sustain-
in WasteFuel, a US-based start-up planning to build ability, recognising that despite the good medical and
a network of SAF production plants worldwide, with humanitarian work it does, the perception of it being
the first coming on stream in the Philippines in 2025. accessible mainly to the rich is a challenge.
“As the world’s largest private aviation buyer of fuel, In the past couple of years, there has been a re-
we can do this, we can lean in with our scale and our freshing change of pace from this community. “The
financial ability to invest,” explains Gallagher. real game-changer is that the flight departments
NetJets has made a commitment to buy a of the FBOs and the fuel suppliers are getting clear
minimum of 26.4 million litres of WasteFuel’s SAF customer demand,” says Steve Csonka, executive
over the next decade. director at the Commercial Aviation Alternative
One of the arguments against SAF has been its Fuels Initiative (CAAFI).
cost premium over Jet A-1. At the headline level, There have been several initiatives such as SAF
this is often said to be three to five times the cost of being available for aircraft flying to shows such
conventional aviation fuel. But at a blend of 35% SAF, as EBACE in Geneva and NBAA in the USA to
customers will only see a relatively small difference
in price because of the relatively modest proportion
used, says Gallagher. And depending on where the “The real game-changer is
SAF is taken, there may be a tax credit to offset this
premium, as there is, for example, in California. that the flight departments
And as more SAF becomes available, the price
will come down. “The price point with WasteFuel by of the FBOs and the fuel
2025 will be negligible,” believes Gallagher. By then,
the blend of SAF is likely to have risen, as engine suppliers are getting clear
manufacturers such as Rolls-Royce are already
successfully conducting tests with 100% SAF. customer demand”
Top priority Steve Csonka Executive director,
The importance of sustainable alternatives is clear Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative
for an industry that relies so heavily on fossil fuel.
Aviation is working hard and fast on electric, hybrid
and hydrogen propulsion as alternatives, but demonstrate its availability and efficacy. Another
conventionally powered turbofan and turboprop high-profile public relations exercise involved provid-
aircraft will be around for decades to come. ing SAF to fuel private aircraft leaving Zurich after
The business aviation world argues, with the World Economic Forum in January 2020.
some justification, that it has been working The industry’s main associations banded to-
as diligently as its airline counterparts on gether in 2018 to form the Business Aviation Co-
sustainability strategies for years. alition for Sustainable Aviation Fuel. They have
In 2009, the industry adopted an been joined by many industry stakeholders
independent stance, publishing the along the way, with CAAFI and the Canadian
Business Aviation Commitment on Business Aviation Association joining in 2020.
Climate Change (BACCC), an in- The coalition seeks to address a “knowledge
dustry-wide promise to reduce its gap” on the availability and safety of SAF and
environmental impact via three goals to promote its use among all stakeholders.
and four key mechanisms as an overall The increased use of SAF is seen as vital for
basket of measures to reduce the aviation in general to achieve the BACCC goals
sector’s impact on climate change. by 2050, but with limited availability right now,
At its core, this commitment, pub- the coalition promotes so-called “book-and-
lished by the International Business Avia- claim” and carbon offset programmes to
tion Council and the General Aviation augment or stand in for its use.
Manufacturers Association, called Book-and-claim is a programme
for carbon-neutral growth “where business jet operators
from 2020 (updated in the can purchase SAF at an airport
2015 review of the com- where it is unavailable, and
mitment) and an absolute receive credit for its supply
reduction of 50% of car- and use at an airport where it
bon dioxide (CO2) emis- is available”, explains the co-
sions by 2050 relative to alition’s Fuelling the Future
Signature Flight Support
2005. These players are guide to SAF.

currently reviewing this The principle is important,
commitment to see if it explains Csonka, as many
operators will not be able to
Signature spied an opportunity buy SAF directly, either be-
during pandemic, says Lefebvre cause they do not have the

buying power, or because it simply is not available With the arrival of larger business jets such as the
at the airports they operate from. Bombardier Global 7500 and Gulfstream G650, which
Aviation’s main associations are close to announc- are becoming comparable to the take-off weights
ing the creation of a standard that will help establish and missions of airliners, the business aviation sector
an industry-wide, accountable, and transparent global felt it was increasingly important for its own voice to
book-and-claim system. be heard in policy-making circles.
SkyNRG has had an in-house book-and-claim Lobbying is focused on the largest business avia-
system called Board Now since 2019, allowing tion markets of the USA and Europe for now. And this
firms such as PwC to reduce their business travel activity is stepping up, even though business flying
emissions, says Stephen Wetmore, head of business is minuscule compared with global airline operations,
development at the Dutch SAF developer. “We have representing only 0.04% of global CO2 output.
demonstrated that it works, and it is accepted by the In the USA, the arrival of the new Biden-Harris
carbon credit bodies,” he says. administration, with an agenda more focused on the
This book-and-claim standard is an important step environment than the previous one, is encouraging
for the entire aviation industry, enabling users to gain the industry. Several business aviation players were
the carbon reduction credit for the SAF they buy, among an array of 49 stakeholders who in April wrote
whether it is used to fuel their aircraft or one taking to Pete Buttigieg, US Secretary of Transportation,
SAF at any airport anywhere in the world. urging “the Biden-Harris administration to support
the inclusion of a SAF-specific blender’s tax credit in
Stop-gap measures the American Jobs Plan as you work with Congress
Book-and-claim will be limited by the amount of SAF to address infrastructure and the climate challenge”.
being produced, but will increase in popularity as The proposal is a credit of up to $2 per USgal,
SAF plants come on stream in the coming years. which would make a difference and would be a start-
In the meantime, many operators are buying car- ing point in helping to make SAF more affordable,
bon offsets. These enable users to compensate for says Stewart D’Leon, director, technical operations
a proportion of an aircraft’s carbon emissions by in- at the NBAA. “We believe a blender’s tax credit will
vesting in carbon-reduction projects that have lower
emissions, according to Fuelling the Future.
Operators such as Flexjet, NetJets and VistaJet all “I still see a large number
offer offset products to customers. Other stakehold-
ers are coming in. Recognising that many players of operators and people
may find it challenging to navigate the offset world,
Boston-based 4AIR has developed a rating system. on the legislative side
In January it was the first to buy carbon offset cred-
its on IATA’s Aviation Carbon Exchange for charter with some very basic
firm PrivateFly.
For the next couple of years, all players will need to questions about SAF”
get up to speed quickly with the new and complex
world of sustainability. This includes the associations Stewart D’Leon Director, technical operations,
that represent the industry. National Business Aviation Association
Gulfstream has been using blends of

alternative fuels and Jet A-1 since 2011
Gulfstream

50%
Business Aviation Commitment on Climate Change
emissions reduction target by 2050, from 2005 levels
May. The European Business Aviation Association

supports the initiative, but stresses that any rules
or mandate stipulating that a percentage of SAF to
be used “has to be scaled up as time goes on”, says
Bruce Parry, its senior environment manager.
It is possible the rule might demand SAF us-
age at a minimal level starting in 2025, rising to
a low single-digit figure by 2030 as more of the
fuel becomes available. “What we don’t want is a
mandate that creates an issue because there is not
enough fuel to satisfy it,” explains Parry.
Providing answers
NetJets
Talk of mandates, tax credits and book-and-claim

may baffle those just getting their head around SAF
NetJets has prioritised investing in SAF production
itself. “A really important part of this is education,”
capacity, says sales and marketing head Pat Gallagher
says D’Leon. “I still see a large number of operators
and people on the legislative side with some very
basic questions about SAF.” The industry coalition is
allow us to accelerate the widespread production and seeking to answer these questions.
use of SAF. It is something we need to put the entire Signature, meanwhile, is very much operating in the
nation on an even playing field,” he says. here and now. In addition to San Francisco, it has made
In the USA, the lobbying effort is to support the SAF available at London Luton airport in the UK and
tax credit, whereas across the Atlantic, the Europe- Mobile Downtown, Van Nuys, and Boeing Field in the
an Commission’s focus is on compelling operators USA. “We will be live with actual [SAF] product across
to embrace SAF-using mandates. The first approach the whole network by the end of 2021,” says Lefebvre.
offers a carrot, the second is more stick. Whether via actual pumped SAF, or via book-and-
The Commission is expected to publish its claim, business aviation is taking SAF and sustainabil-
proposed legislation, called ReFuelEU Aviation, to ity seriously. For D’Leon, the message is simple: “SAF
boost the supply and demand for SAF in the EU, in works, it’s here and it’s now.” Z
Bringing SAF use into the mainstream

There is a group of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) Gulfstream began searching for a regular SAF
“geeks” that have lived and breathed the rise of provider and signed an offtake deal with World
this fuel from an oddity over a decade ago to the Energy (then called AltAir) in 2015. Fuel began
mainstream carbon reduction instrument it has arriving a year later and the airframer has used
become today. it ever since for demonstration flights and at air
Bodies such as the Commercial Aviation shows with a 30:70 SAF/Jet A-1 blend. “Some
Alternative Fuels Initiative, and manufacturers customers also insist their new aircraft are
Bombardier, Dassault and Gulfstream, among delivered with SAF,” says Etter.
others, have been intimately involved in SAF since The initiative went a step further on 14 February
the mid-2000s. 2020, when the G700 ultra-long-range business jet
Gulfstream’s SAF story dates to 2011 when, at took its first flight with SAF, he says.
the behest of Honeywell, it supported a G450 Aircraft manufacturers are making further strides
transatlantic flight to that year’s Paris air show, on sustainability. Bombardier says the development
recalls Charles Etter, staff scientist/technical fellow plan for its clean-sheet Global 7500 involved
responsible for environmental and regulatory obtaining business aviation’s first environmental
affairs at the Savannah, Georgia-based firm. product declaration.
One of the G450’s Rolls-Royce Tay 611-8C “This unique achievement means that
engines was operated with a 50:50 blend of World Bombardier is providing a comprehensive view
Energy’s SAF and Jet A-1, while the other was 100% and public disclosure of the Global 7500’s
Jet A-1. The experiment generated widespread environmental footprint throughout the aircraft’s
publicity for all involved and prompted potential life cycle stages from the cradle to the grave,”
investors to contact World Energy. says the airframer.

Learjet epitomised style, speed and sexiness for
celebrities and corporate high-fliers from the 1960s
on. After Bombardier’s decision to end production,
we look at the brand’s six-decade legacy
King Lear’s
long reign
Murdo Morrison London assets and slashing costs to stay afloat. It could little
afford to keep a subsidiary that was struggling to
make a profit. There have been missteps too spe-
T
he early to mid-1960s were arguably aero- cifically with the Learjet brand. Since the scrapping
space’s most creative age, outside wartime. in 2015 of the Learjet 85 – an attempt to bridge the
From the first manned space missions to the midsize to super-midsize segments – there has been
genesis of vertical take-off fighters, supersonic little money available for product development.
transports, and jumbo jets, engineers were dreaming Today, the Learjet name may command recognition
big. The period also saw the birth of the business jet, among those who have a casual knowledge about
an invention that fused glamour, security, and time aviation, but it is no longer pre-eminent, being just
machine for those Tom Wolfe would term the Masters one of five brands competing in the broad light jet
of the Universe in booming corporate America. segment – including several new players that have
Bill Lear’s Learjet 23 was the only US contender emerged this century.
among a trio of types – with France’s Dassault Falcon However, in the 1960s and early 1970s it would have
20 and the UK’s Hawker Siddeley HS125 – that over been difficult to overstate the sheer star appeal of
a few months between 1962 and 1963 took to the the fast and stylish Learjet 23. Frank Sinatra was one
skies to usher an era of fast, comfortable and private
transport for those companies and individuals who
could afford them. Of all the brands that emerged at
the time, Learjet, along with Gulfstream, has perhaps
endured longest in the public consciousness and be-
come synonymous with the sector.
Competitive segment
But in February, Bombardier – owner of the Wichita,
Kansas-based airframer since 1990 – announced that
Learjet production will cease by the end of the year,
blaming slow sales in a highly competitive segment.
Although the Canadian company delivered the
3,000th Learjet in 2017, and more than 2,000 exam-
ples remain in service according to Cirium fleets data,
annual deliveries of the current 70/75 models have
been well below 20 annually for some time.
Bombardier’s wider problems have not helped.
Weighed down with debts from the ill-fated CSeries How Flight International reported
development, the company has been offloading on the Learjet 23 in December 1963

Learjet Retrospective
Bombardier
Learjet 23 first flew in October 1963
1,600nm
Range of the General Electric CJ610-1 powered Learjet 23,
the first aircraft to be built by the Learjet Corporation
pace. The General Electric CJ610-1-powered type fea-

tured swept wings and integral wing and tip tanks that
gave it a 1,600nm (2,960km) range. We reported that
Lear planned to build 10 Learjet 23s a month by 1964.
BIllyPix
In 1967, the Gates Rubber Company acquired a

majority stake in the company, although Lear, by
The Learjet 75 is the final variant in production
now approaching 70, remained on its board until
1969. By the time of the first flight in 1971 of the Gar-
rett FTE731-2-powered Model 25 – later the Learjet
of its first customers, and for years it was the fa- 35 – the firm had become Gates Learjet.
voured mode of transport for Hollywood celebrities. In 1975, the Learjet Corporation delivered its 500th
Born in Hannibal, Missouri in 1902, Bill Lear failed aircraft, going on later that decade to launch the
at high school but became a serial entrepreneur and Learjet 28 (a re-winged version of the Learjet 25),
inventor, making money during the Second World War. and the midsize Model 54/55/56 prototype.
In 1960, he started working with Swiss-based engineer
Dr Hans-Luzius Studer on a business jet version of Space Shuttle
Studer’s FFA P-16, a supersonic fighter that never en- The 1980s witnessed a move into producing parts for
tered service. Abandoning plans for a Swiss factory, in the Space Shuttle programme, a short-lived relocation
1963 he set up in Wichita, home of Cessna and Beech- to Tucson, Arizona, and a further acquisition that saw
craft. The Learjet 23 flew in October that year. the company revert to the name Learjet Corporation,
Two months later, Flight International approved of although its new parent soon filed for bankruptcy. In
the “sleek compactness” of the six- to eight-seat twin- 1990, Learjet was scooped up by the fast-expanding
jet in a piece headlined “Car comfort, fighter speed”, Canadian combine Bombardier, which had recently
noting that what it lacked in cabin space compared bought Canadair and Northern Ireland’s Shorts, and
with other fledgling business aircraft it made up for in would later add de Havilland.

Flight International reported in July that year
that Learjet would be an autonomous subsidiary
of Bombardier, with its management team in place,
although the Canadian outfit planned to establish a
Bombardier
new flight-test centre for its products at the Wichita
Bombardier has announced an upgrade
site. Bombardier chairman Laurent Beaudoin said
programme for variants such as the 40XR
production of Learjet’s then current models – the
31, 35A and 36A light jets, together with the larger
55C – would continue as “niche” products within the
wider Bombardier range.
Huge ambition
During the 1990s, the Learjet 60 (an evolution of the
Learjet 55) and all-new Learjet 45 flew for the first
time. Around the time it was preparing to launch the
CSeries, a bullish Bombardier also announced in 2007
the all-composite Learjet 85, a hugely ambitious
project that involved outsourcing specialist fuselage
production to Grob in Germany.
But the complexity of developing the Learjet 85,
together with Bombardier’s growing cash crisis, saw
the programme cancelled in 2015.
Despite attempts to reinvigorate what had become
a one-aircraft range with the launch of a Learjet 75
Liberty variant in 2019, the move to end production
Bombardier
has surprised few industry watchers. “There have been

The Learjet 31A was one of several successful
tell-tale signs leading to this decision for years,” says
types launched by the Wichita-based airframer
Brian Foley of consultancy Brian Foley Associates.
The lost brands of business aviation remembered

These are some of the families Hawker Bavarian company briefly dipped
or types that pioneered new Hawker Siddeley was behind its toes into business aviation
segments or were highly another 1960s-era business jet – under then-owner South African
successful in their own right, but the HS125 – which evolved into entrepreneur Niall Olver. The all-
are no longer being produced: the Hawker 1000 under Raytheon composite Grob SPn, unveiled and
ownership in the 1990s. The flown in 2005, was one of a flurry
Lockheed JetStar Hawker family – the 400XP and of light and very-light jets to hit
While Lockheed Martin remains the super-midsize Hawker 4000 the market in the mid-2000s. As
one of the biggest names – continued to be produced until with many of its contemporaries,
in aerospace and defence, shortly before Hawker Beechcraft the programme was cancelled
Lockheed’s days as a business went into Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2008 when Grob fell into
aviation badge are long over. protection in 2012. Textron insolvency. Four prototypes were
The Lockheed JetStar was in Aviation then acquired the built, but none entered service.
production from the early 1960s Hawker and Beechcraft brands in
until the late 1970s and some 2014, but Hawker production was Adam
maintain the four-engined, never restarted. Another start-up from the
10-passenger type was the first noughties that failed to survive
true business jet. Elvis Presley Grob SPn the financial crisis, Colorado-
and Frank Sinatra were among Grob continues as a manufacturer based Adam Aircraft’s range
celebrity JetStar owners. of trainer aircraft, but the comprised the A500 piston twin

Learjet Retrospective
Bombardier
The all-composite Learjet 85 was an ambitious attempt to
broaden the range in the 2000s, but was a costly failure
“There have been no real enhancements to the Learjet 70 and 75 have “continued to rapidly depreciate”
line since 2013, when the Learjet 40XR and 45XR were during the pandemic, although he says that values
tweaked to make the Learjet 70 and 75.” for the older Learjet 45 and 60 families have “per-
Daniel Hall, a senior valuations consultant with formed quite well”. When it announced it was ending
Ascend by Cirium, notes that values for the Learjet production, Bombardier also said it was launching
an upgrade programme for Learjet 40/45s, including
new avionics, cabin improvements and updated in-
“The Learjet remains flight connectivity.
Even loyal Learjet customers have accepted the in-
one of the most iconic evitability of the decision. Siegfried Axtmann, chair-
man of German air ambulance specialist FAI, one of
business aircraft ever. the biggest Learjet operators in Europe with a fleet
of 12 Learjet 60s, describes the move as “regretta-
We have enjoyed many ble but understandable”, and on the cards since the
cancellation of the Learjet 85 programme. However,
successful years with it” he adds: “The Learjet remains one of the most iconic
business aircraft ever. We have enjoyed many suc-
Siegfried Axtmann Chairman, FAI cessful years with it.” ◗
Silicon Valley executive planned

to mass produce the original
very-light jet in the early 2000s,
offering them to early adopters
for just $2 million a time. But it
was not to be. Eclipse Aviation
failed in 2008, and, although the
Eclipse name has survived under
James Mellon/FlightGlobal
successive companies, Raburn’s

dream of a brand that would
disrupt the world of general
aviation came to nothing.
Sabreliner
The North American and later
Lockheed’s JetStar was produced from the 1960s
Rockwell Sabreliner was a midsize
jet developed for both military
and the A700 very-light jet. Seven Eclipse and business use in the late 1950s.
A500s – based on an original If founder Vern Raburn’s vision After a number of civilian models
design by Burt Rutan – entered had come true, the skies would were made, from the Series 40 to
service, but the A700 never made be full of Eclipse 500s and their the Series 80A, production was
it to production. successors by now. The former halted in 1981.

From yuckspeak to tales of yore, send your offcuts to murdo.morrison@flightglobal.com
Ode deer!
Lines on the occasion of the safe arrival of four
reindeer from Moscow Zoo to Frankfurt after a flight
on a Boeing 747-400F, operated by AirBridgeCargo:
’Twas the month before Easter, no word of a lie,

When a group of four reindeer crossed over the sky
But nothing to do with the usual chap
Or post-Christmas problems with reading the map
Or gifts being carried from nation to nation
No shiny red noses to aid navigation
Northrop Grumman
They weren’t doing circuits for currency training
And all of them flew with no hint of complaining
Their level of comfort turned up to eleven
Locked up on the deck of a 747
From Russia with love (and a captain and crew)
Retirement on the radar
They caribou-classed it to Wuppertal Zoo
We weren’t there in person; this bit might be doubted
Our sources have sworn that the loadmaster shouted:
“Come Yuri! Come Lenin! Come Vodka and Tonic!
“We trust you’ve enjoyed your time cruising subsonic.
“Unfasten your seat-belts, it’s time to deplane.
Royal flush
“We hope that you’ll choose to fly AirBridge again.” UK air navigation service provider NATS issued a
Our story ends there but the message is clear. briefing sheet on 12 March advising that air restrictions
You know who to call if you’re short of some deer. were being put in place for a week for an upcoming
But don’t write in complaining we aren’t quite visit by Queen Elizabeth to the Firth of Clyde.
Tennyson. For security reasons, it said, no flights would be
What did he know about airlifting venison? allowed below 6,000ft or within 3nm – with exceptions
for certain aircraft including those in the service of local
law enforcement agency Police Scotland.
Police Scotland proceeded to announce on social
media that this restriction would be in place for the
duration of Queen Elizabeth’s visit to Glen Mallan, only
to receive an indignant reply from someone irritated
that the monarch had the freedom to swan around
Loch Long while a pandemic lockdown was in effect,
and who added: “Can I visit Aberdeen or Cheltenham?”
Which might have been a more withering barb had
AirBridgeCargo
the Queen Elizabeth in question been the current

head of state and not, as it turned out, the Royal Navy
It’ll be warmer at Wuppertal aircraft carrier.
From the archive
1921 Fifteen minutes to go 100

Generally speaking the air services between London
1946 Atmosphere of luxury 75
On Wednesday, May 1st, we had the unique
and Paris are very managed, but there are one or two experience of flying at 25,000ft sitting in a beautifully
minor points that call for friendly criticism. The main upholstered armchair, smoking a cigarette and
advantage of an air service – one might say its raison chatting comfortably with our fellow passengers.
d’etre – is speed. That being so, it is distinctly annoying The cabin temperature was kept pretty constant in
for a busy man who had expected to leave Croydon at the region of 75 deg F, and from the lack of noise
12 o’clock to be kept waiting for, as far as he can see, and luxury of travel, we might all have been sitting in
no apparent reason whatever. The man who gets to the a superbly appointed special train – apart from the
aerodrome a quarter of an hour before the machine utter absence of apparent motion. In point of fact, we
is leaving, gets through customs, takes his seat and were flying in the first production Avro Tudor I. The
makes his journey to scheduled time, will retain an average person needs oxygen at altitudes in excess
impression of reliability and punctuality which will of 15,000ft. Yet here we were, nearly five miles up
encourage him to use the service again. If he is kept and with an outside temperature of -24 deg F being
waiting for close on an hour before a start is made, he carried through the sky at 300 m.p.h. in the most
will go by train and boat next time. luxurious form of transport man has yet devised.

Straight & Level
EuroHawk’s rest
Along with the new Berlin airport – massively over
budget and delayed nine years, only to open in the
midst of the pandemic – the EuroHawk is one of
Germany’s aviation white elephants.
The centerpiece of a bid by the Bundeswehr to
establish its own signals intelligence capability, the
programme – based on the Northrop Grumman RQ-4
Global Hawk high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned
air vehicle – collapsed in 2013, ruffling many political
feathers as it did so. In the end, just one demonstrator
was built.
Despite talk about restarting the project over the
years, the prototype has been formally retired, and
will see out its days in the military history museum at
Berlin-Gatow.
Air showbiz Love is in TindAIR

With no income from what would have been the 2020 Yuckspeak acronyms #1,324: TindAIR, which “stands”
air show – or any other event for the past 12 months, for Tactical INstrumental Deonfliction And In-flight
for that matter – Farnborough International is going Resolution (yes, these capitals are in the right place).
into the movie business. The European project is intended to find a way to
The company has applied for planning permission keep unmanned air vehicles apart in urban settings.
for two sound stages on its site, behind the permanent So best not confuse it with the popular dating app of
Hall 1. Film-makers will also be able to use hospitality nearly the same name, designed to bring users into the
chalets for offices, and erect temporary stages and closest possible proximity.
workshops, under the proposal.
Although few movies have been shot during the
pandemic – due to social distancing complications and
no cinemas to release them in – the UK remains an
attractive location for producers thanks to country’s
Taking the Michael
sizeable creative industries. However, studio capacity Michael O’Leary’s wicked barbs at politicians, airport
around London is limited. authorities, and feather-bedded competitors are
Although the application covers the period until always the highlight of a Ryanair press conference. The
August 2024, presumably the likes of Tom Cruise and outspoken Irishman did not disappoint at the carrier’s
Steven Spielberg will have to work around the next recent financial results, likening Lufthansa to a “drunken
two air shows. uncle at a wedding hoovering up state subsidies”.
50
1971 Boom time for Beirut? 1996 AST flies into the past
If the extra cost of operating Concorde can be kept to
25
The UK’s oldest flying training school has become the
no more than 50 per cent, and full use can be made first victim of a Government policy loophole enabling
of its speed, Middle East Airlines will buy it. This UK pilots to gain UK commercial pilot’s licences in
statement was made by the airline’s general manager, foreign training establishments. The 60-year-old Air
Asad Nasr, on May 13. About 65 per cent of passengers Services Training (AST) at Perth, Scotland, announced
flying by MEA are businessmen, and Mr Nasr estimates on 26 April that its pilot-training section will be wound
that by the mid-seventies, when Concorde comes up by October 1996. Schools in the USA and Australia
into service, the airline could justify a daily supersonic started training pilots for UK commercial licences
flight on its key route between London and Beirut. in 1995, offering cheaper courses and better flying
This assumes that Concorde can cruise at Mach 2, thus weather than their British counterparts. AST marketing
cutting two hours off the flying time from Beirut to manager David McKinnon says that overseas training
London, and depends on permission being granted to was “a very important factor” in the decision, and that
fly supersonically over part of France. If not, MEA does UK policy had “...added insult to injury by allowing
not believe Concorde would make commercial sense national vocational qualification tax relief to be
on the routes between Europe and the Middle East. claimed by trainees while they are overseas”.

Ceri Breeze/Shutterstock
Booking system mix-up caused TUI crew
to miscalculate passenger load by 1.2t
competitor now, but one that is

Weighty matter Bad blood even assembling some of its aircraft
within the USA.
With reference to the story ‘TUI Reading the article ‘Ratcheting It is worth remembering that the
737 weight incident traced to up’, about the ongoing Airbus/ UK gave up airframe manufacturing
‘Miss’ interpretation of female Boeing World Trade Organization suddenly – especially with the
passengers’ (FlightGlobal.com, 8 dispute (Flight International, Vickers VC10 and BAC 1-11 – which
April 2021), there have been many February 2021), I was reminded of effectively ended real competition
incidents and accidents where the a letter I submitted in September at that time.
weight of the aircraft has been 2015, regarding a suggestion that Boeing has not been itself for a
erroneously entered into the flight Boeing had once been promised long time, even though it is the only
management system. that it would be the only airframe US airliner manufacturer; hence the
This risky procedure involves manufacturer for civil aircraft in the serious spat with Airbus.
approximating the weight of the western world.
passengers, their luggage, the fuel I believe there is a quiet rage W D Barbut
and any cargo, and matching it to that Boeing not only has a London, UK
the length of the runway and air
density, which additionally varies
with temperature and altitude.
To add to the above, the thrust
of the engines may vary also with
temperature, altitude, fuel quality
and mechanical conditions.
A simple solution to this
problem, which eliminates all these
uncertainties, would be to calculate
the precise thrust needed for safe
lift-off based on the acceleration
the aircraft has seconds after
spool-up and brake release.
Relatively modern aircraft already
have the accelerometers and
Tad Denson/Airbus
computational capacity to do this,

and for older aircraft, it could even
be calculated with an iPhone.
Rodolfo Serna
Bogota, Colombia Built in the USA

Letters
MilborneOne/Wikimedia Commons
The UK’s developmental Nimrod AEW3
programme was cancelled in 1986
Nott again...
Regarding your coverage of the UK’s recent defence review (Flight International, April 2021): it is smoke and
mirrors regarding the airborne early warning (AEW) gap between this year’s retirement of its Boeing E-3Ds
and the later introduction of just three E-7A Wedgetails.
We are stepping back to the days of [defence secretary] John Nott, when he cut the Royal Air Force’s
(RAF’s) Shackleton fleet from 12 to six, and then, when the replacement Nimrod AEW3 was cancelled, we were
left with five antique aircraft to help defend the UK.
One of the points of having AEW is to cover for gaps in ground sensor coverage – not the other way around.
Much as I’m sure those at the RAF’s 1 Air Control Centre will love the opportunity to pack their tents and
deploy, there are many places they won’t be able to go, so we need AEW.
And on the UK’s future investment plans: how can reconnaissance satellites track airborne objects?
Ian McClellan
via Twitter
Editor’s reply: We may require Please consider those of us who

Under pressure some boffin assistance here;
NASA’s own “kid’s” web pages
prefer the paper version when
selecting fonts and colours for your
In your article ‘Engines stay core about propulsion swiftly go otherwise excellent magazine.
for NASA’ (Flight International, the beyond normal-level
April 2021), it says the stated aim comprehension that engines Ian James
is ‘increasing an engine’s bypass “suck, squeeze, bang and blow”. via email
ratio to 15% – up from around 12% Calculators at the ready…
today – and its pressure ratio to Editor’s reply: Apologies for any
about 50%’. problem with legibility – to our eyes
Call me dull, but what on earth green text on blue background
does that mean?
A ratio is normally expressed
Small print usually reads very well. However,
individual caption colours are now
in the form of 1:8, for example – I Your ‘Best of the rest’ section picked by our designer for their
have never seen it expressed as a frequently uses a green font best presentation; we hope you
percentage. A further explanation against a purple background to find the mix in this issue (p42-43)
would be helpful. caption the pictures. more agreeable, and enjoy reading
That doesn’t look too bad in the online articles associated with
Paul Burch the digital version, but it is almost them by using your FlightGlobal
Farnham, Surrey, UK impossible to read in print. Premium login.
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Heather Ross has a job that many aviators would
dream of. She is a test pilot at Boeing, currently
working on the airframer’s newest project, the 777X.
It’s a very different career to her original aspiration
In tune with the

largest twinjet
Pilar Wolfsteller Las Vegas Nine years after leaving Boeing, Ross was back, this
time with the credentials to sit up front.
Of her 9,200h total time in the cockpit, more than
H
eather Ross was not destined to be a test pilot. half are flight-testing hours accumulated with Boeing.
She stumbled into the cockpit “very much by Ross now holds US Federal Aviation Administration
accident”, thanks to two brothers who were type ratings on the airframer’s 737, 747, 757, 767,
also interested in aviation. She had initially 777 and 787 models – every commercial aircraft the
planned to be a musician. company builds.
But at university, the woodwind specialist quickly As deputy chief pilot for the 777X programme,
recognised that music would not be a career in which she is an “engineering project pilot”, meaning she
she could thrive. is one of the professional aviators to be involved in
“It was kind of the same thing over and over again. the programme from day one. She spent 10 years
I’d played in all sorts of groups – marching bands, jazz on the 787 before shifting to the 777X development
bands, orchestras, and all that. Maybe I was burnt out. programme six years ago.
And I wasn’t sure if I could eke out a career.” “I get to focus on that airplane. There are so many
Her first cockpit experience was “an epiphany”. paths that an airplane design can go down,” she says.
“That’s when I realised, ‘Oh, wow, this is incredible’. “If some of them don’t work or meet pilot expectations,
I mean, the world is three-dimensional… There’s now or if they are hard to implement, having a pilot help
this vertical aspect to seeing the world. The things that early on with the design really prevents last minute
were familiar to you in two dimensions take on another changes and realisations.”
one as you fly above it all.” The test campaign associated with any new aircraft
design is extremely meticulous and disciplined, with all
Personal views systems verified over and over in simulators and labs
With an aviation career that now spans almost four on the ground.
decades, 59-year-old Ross has come a long way since
that epiphany. In the meantime, she has personally
seen the industry from all sides. As deputy chief pilot for the 777X, Ross
Ross arrived at Boeing in 1985 with a degree in has focused on programme from day one
aeronautics and astronautics in hand, and worked as a
flight-test analysis engineer.
“I loved the job. It was great. I got to fly on the
airplanes – but in the back of the airplanes,” she says.
What she really wanted was to be up front.
However, at the time, Ross had nowhere near the
level of flying experience needed to compete for a job
as a test pilot.
So, in 1988 she joined the US Air Force, becoming
type-rated on the Cessna T-37 and Northrop T-38
trainers and the Lockheed Martin C-5 and C-141
airlifters, and flew more than 40 missions in the first
Gulf War. She then had a stint at United Airlines as a
Boeing
Boeing 737 pilot, and flight engineer on 727s and 747s.

Women in aviation
“Flying any airplane,

regardless of whether
it’s the first time that
particular airplane is
flown, or the first time
that type has ever flown,
is always exciting”
“By the time that the crew gets in the airplane for the
first flight, we’ve tested all of the parts of the airplane
and the pieces and all the different components,” Ross
says. The pilots and the equipment have prepared for
all possible scenarios. “It’s a very, very methodical, very
careful build up in preparation for first flight.”
Though Ross has never been at the controls during
a type’s first flight, she maintains an excitement and a
fascination for the process and the teamwork that goes
into making an aircraft defy gravity.
“Flying any airplane, regardless of whether it’s the
first time that particular airplane is flown, or the first
time that type has ever flown, is always exciting,” Ross
says. “I still feel the same every time I push the power
up, even on an airplane that I’ve flown 100 times.
“It’s that realisation of everything coming together.
People’s efforts, expertise, knowledge and care.
Everybody’s focused on achieving the same goal,
which is to get the airplane airborne, and offer a great
product, ultimately, for our customers and for the flying
public,” she says.
Ross is among a handful of women doing a job that
thousands of professional pilots – male and female –
would covet.
“Airplanes are built so that you don’t have to have
unusual strength, which is great because it means that
Ross has FAA type ratings on every
women can fly them just as well as men can,” she says.
Boeing
commercial aircraft Boeing builds

“The airplane doesn’t care.” ◗
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