PPP Release VA 0307
PPP Release VA 0307
PPP Release VA 0307
In a field of eight Virginia Democrats who could potentially take the plunge, Kaine
comes away with the support of 53% of usual Democratic primary voters. 9% favor an
unnamed option or are not sure, and the rest of the offered candidates are bunched in
single digits. Former congressmen Rick Boucher and Tom Perriello and current Rep.
Bobby Scott are each the preference of 9%, with former Governor Doug Wilder at 8%,
Rep. Gerry Connolly at 3%, and former Rep. Glenn Nye at only 1%.
If the field is narrowed to only Kaine, Boucher, and Perriello, Kaine is further
strengthened to 65%, followed by Perriello’s 15% and Boucher’s 11%. 9% are also not
sure in this variation.
Kaine has a superb 75-10 favorability margin with his base, better than his possible
general-election opponent George Allen’s 68-15 with Republicans. Kaine also easily
bests the other two in popularity. Perriello bosts a decent 34-15, but Boucher is actually
disliked, 16-22. Neither of the recently defeated congressmen is known to a majority of
these voters, so both have room to improve either against Kaine or if Kaine declines a
bid.
“Tim Kaine is the heavy-hitter who would be the strongest candidate against George
Allen or any of the other Republicans,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “We’re showing Kaine and Allen neck-and-neck, but right now, Allen has
healthy leads over the other two little-known Democrats, Boucher and Perriello.”
The Democrats in Virginia are, at least by their own self-definition, not as extreme as
their Republican counterparts. As Thursday’s release showed, over three-quarters of
Republican primary voters say they are either very or somewhat conservative, but only
half of Democrats think themselves either very (19%) or somewhat (31%) liberal, while a
38% plurality call themselves moderates. There are also more conservatives among
Democrats (13%) than there are liberals in the GOP (5%).
PPP surveyed 400 usual Virginia Democratic primary voters from February 24th to 27th.
The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.9%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed
and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Favorable .............. 75% Not sure ................ 14% Tom Perriello................................................... 15%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Boucher Favorability Kaine Favorability
Favorable 16% 15% 20% 16% 14% 5% Favorable 75% 78% 82% 73% 66% 39%
Unfavorable 22% 27% 24% 21% 27% - Unfavorable 10% 11% 10% 12% 7% -
Not sure 61% 58% 57% 64% 59% 95% Not sure 14% 11% 8% 14% 27% 61%
Ideology Ideology
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative
Perriello Favorability 2012 Dem Sen
Prim ary
Favorable 34% 38% 32% 33% 29% 36%
Rick Boucher 9% 8% 8% 10% 11% 5%
Unfavorable 15% 11% 12% 18% 19% 13%
Gerry Connolly 3% 4% 2% 1% 4% 13%
Not sure 52% 51% 56% 49% 52% 52%
Tim Kaine 53% 50% 56% 56% 50% 16%
Glenn Nye 1% - 1% - - 5%
Tom Perriello 9% 13% 5% 8% 8% 30%
Bobby Scott 9% 6% 11% 9% 11% -
Doug Wilder 8% 13% 4% 6% 12% 25%
Som eone else/Not 9% 5% 12% 10% 2% 5%
sure
Ideology
Gender
Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very
Base liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Base Wom an Man
2012 Dem Sen
Prim ary Narrow Boucher Favorability
Rick Boucher 11% 17% 7% 11% 18% 5%
Favorable 16% 13% 20%
Tim Kaine 65% 62% 73% 63% 61% 29%
Tom Perriello 15% 17% 11% 16% 10% 43% Unfavorable 22% 19% 26%
Not sure 9% 4% 9% 10% 10% 23%
Not sure 61% 67% 54%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
Kaine Favorability Perriello Favorability
Favorable 75% 75% 75% Favorable 34% 27% 42%
Unfavorable 10% 6% 16% Unfavorable 15% 15% 14%
Not sure 14% 19% 9% Not sure 52% 58% 44%
Gender Gender
Base Wom an Man Base Wom an Man
2012 Dem Sen 2012 Dem Sen
Prim ary Prim ary Narrow
Rick Boucher 9% 10% 8% Rick Boucher 11% 12% 10%
Gerry Connolly 3% 4% 0% Tim Kaine 65% 63% 67%
Tim Kaine 53% 49% 59% Tom Perriello 15% 15% 16%
Glenn Nye 1% 0% 1% Not sure 9% 11% 6%
Tom Perriello 9% 9% 10%
Bobby Scott 9% 10% 8%
Doug Wilder 8% 9% 6%
Som eone else/Not 9% 9% 9%
sure
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Boucher Favorability Kaine Favorability
Favorable 16% 24% 3% 7% Favorable 75% 75% 75% 70%
Unfavorable 22% 20% 26% 22% Unfavorable 10% 11% 10% 11%
Not sure 61% 56% 71% 70% Not sure 14% 14% 14% 19%
Race Race
African- African-
Base White Am erican Other Base White Am erican Other
Perriello Favorability 2012 Dem Sen
Prim ary
Favorable 34% 40% 23% 26%
Rick Boucher 9% 12% 3% 15%
Unfavorable 15% 13% 16% 19%
Gerry Connolly 3% 2% 3% 7%
Not sure 52% 47% 61% 56%
Tim Kaine 53% 53% 54% 44%
Glenn Nye 1% 1% - 4%
Tom Perriello 9% 11% 7% 4%
Bobby Scott 9% 5% 17% 4%
Doug Wilder 8% 5% 12% 15%
Som eone else/Not 9% 12% 4% 7%
sure
Race Age
African- 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base White Am erican Other Base 29 45 65 than 65
2012 Dem Sen Boucher Favorability
Prim ary Narrow
Favorable 16% 17% 16% 17% 14%
Rick Boucher 11% 14% 6% 15%
Unfavorable 22% 38% 29% 23% 13%
Tim Kaine 65% 59% 75% 63%
Not sure 61% 44% 55% 59% 73%
Tom Perriello 15% 18% 12% 7%
Not sure 9% 10% 7% 15%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
Kaine Favorability Perriello Favorability
Favorable 75% 74% 76% 74% 77% Favorable 34% 39% 28% 35% 35%
Unfavorable 10% 14% 9% 13% 7% Unfavorable 15% 18% 19% 17% 7%
Not sure 14% 11% 15% 13% 17% Not sure 52% 42% 54% 49% 58%
Age Age
18 to 30 to 46 to Older 18 to 30 to 46 to Older
Base 29 45 65 than 65 Base 29 45 65 than 65
2012 Dem Sen 2012 Dem Sen
Prim ary Prim ary Narrow
Rick Boucher 9% 16% 7% 9% 9% Rick Boucher 11% 31% 7% 13% 9%
Gerry Connolly 3% 4% 2% 3% 2% Tim Kaine 65% 41% 66% 66% 65%
Tim Kaine 53% 43% 54% 53% 54% Tom Perriello 15% 19% 14% 15% 17%
Glenn Nye 1% - 1% 1% - Not sure 9% 9% 13% 7% 9%
Tom Perriello 9% 14% 11% 10% 6%
Bobby Scott 9% 18% 10% 9% 7%
Doug Wilder 8% - 6% 6% 14%
Som eone else/Not 9% 4% 9% 10% 8%
sure