Workie Tegen

ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY
ADDIS ABABA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT AND ROAD TRANSPORT
Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Road Maintenance Interventions

(A case Study for Alemgena District)
A Thesis in Road and Transport Engineering
By Workie Tegen Gorfu
Advisor Alemayhu Ambo, PhD
October, 2017
Addis Ababa
A Thesis
Submitted in Partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science
The undersigned have examined the thesis entitled Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Road
Maintenance Intervention the case study of Alemgena Road Maintenance District presented
by Workie Tegen, a candidate for the degree of Master of Science and hereby certify that it is
worthy of acceptance.
Alemayhu Ambo, PhD ____________________ ____________________

Advisor Signature Date
Habtamu Melese, PhD ____________________ ____________________

External Advisor Signature Date
Raeed Ali ____________________ ____________________

Internal Advisor Signature Date
Dr.Agizew Nigussie ____________________ ____________________

Chair person Signature Date
DECLARATION
I, the undersigned, declare that this thesis is my original work, and has not been presented for a
degree in any other university; and that all sources of materials used for the thesis have been duly
acknowledged/referred.
Masters of Thesis October, 2017
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I am here taking this chance to forward my gratitude to everyone who helped and supported me
throughout the thesis work. First and foremost, I would like to thank Almighty for helping me in
every aspect of my life during this research and beyond. I would like also to thank Doctor
Alemayehu Ambo, who was the principal advisor of the research, for his full support, expert
guidance, understanding and encouragement throughout my study.
I would also like to thank the Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA) for sponsoring this M.Sc. program.
As this study was also supported by the Addis Ababa Institute of Technology (AAiT), I would like
to address my gratefulness for the Institute. Moreover, I would like to express my sincere gratitude
to Doctor Bikila Teklu for facilitating my entrance to the M.Sc. programme. Similarly, I want
extend my gratitude to Eng. Asres Simeneh for his advice, helpful comments and constant
encouragements. In addition, I want to extend my heartfelt gratitudes to Ato Mohammed
Abdurahuman, the Deputy Director General of ERA; Ato Bekele Nigussie, Ex-Deputy Director of
ERA Planning and Programing Directorate Monitoring and Evaluation, W/ro Hirut Yohannes,
Director of South Region, ERA; W/rt Sara Beahilu, Project Engineer of ERA Road Asset
Management Team, Engr. Atikilty Ayele, Team Leader for Alemgena Roads Maintenance; my
friends W/ro Yealemsehay Kebede, W/ro Yeshwork Bayeh, and all the Ethiopian Roads Authority
colleagues who directly or indirectly participated in the fulfillment this study.
I also wish to express my appreciations to my husband Arch. Demeke Ashenafi for his love and
providing me with all the required support throughout my study years.
Finally, my special thank is extended to my mother Takela Beyene, my father, Ato Tegen Gorfu,
my sisters Fana Tegen, Aster Admasu, Hanna Tegen, Tigist Tegen and my brothers Nega Tegen,
Tizazu Tegen and Seleshi Admasu who positively contributed, in one way or the other, to the
successful completion of this thesis.
Thank You
Workie Tegen
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Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................................... i
LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................................................................................................... v
LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................................................... vi
ABSTRACT................................................................................................................................................ vii
CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................................... 1
INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 1
1.1 Background of the Study .................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Statement of the Problem.................................................................................................................... 2
1.3 Objectives of the Study....................................................................................................................... 3
1.3.1 General Objective......................................................................................................................... 3
1.3.2 Specific Objectives....................................................................................................................... 3
1.4 Hypothesis........................................................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Significance of the Study .................................................................................................................... 3
1.6 Scope of the Study .............................................................................................................................. 4
1.7 Limitation of the Study ....................................................................................................................... 4
1.8 Organization of the Study ................................................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER TWO .......................................................................................................................................... 5
LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................................................. 5
2.1 Introduction......................................................................................................................................... 5
2.2 The Life-Cycle Cost Analysis............................................................................................................. 5
2.2.1 Overview of LCCA...................................................................................................................... 5
2.2.2 The Purpose of LCCA in Road Maintenance Interventions ........................................................ 6
2.2.3 Steps and Components of the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis ............................................................. 8
2.3 Economic Analysis Components ...................................................................................................... 10
2.3.1 Evaluation Methods ...................................................................................................................10
2.3.2 Analysis Period ..........................................................................................................................11
2.3.3 Discount Rate.............................................................................................................................11
2.3.4 Sensitivity and Risk Analysis .................................................................................................... 12
2.4 Cost Factors in LCCA.......................................................................................................................12
2.4.1 Initial Construction Cost ............................................................................................................ 13
2.4.2 Maintenance and Rehabilitation Costs.......................................................................................14
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2.4.3 Agency Costs .............................................................................................................................15

2.4.4 User Costs .................................................................................................................................. 15
2.4.5 Salvage Values...........................................................................................................................15
2.5 Road Maintenance ............................................................................................................................16
2.5.1 Road Defects and Corresponding Preventive Methods..............................................................18
2.6 Road Fund Administration................................................................................................................18
2.7 Road Condition Survey.....................................................................................................................20
2.8 Road Network Types ........................................................................................................................21
2.9 Highway Development and Management (HDM-4)......................................................................... 22
2.9.1 General....................................................................................................................................... 22
2.9.2 Purpose of the HDM-4...............................................................................................................22
2.9.3 HDM4 System for LCCA .......................................................................................................... 24
CHAPTER THREE .................................................................................................................................... 26
MATERIALS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY........................................................................................26
3.1 General.............................................................................................................................................. 26
3.2 Design of the Study...........................................................................................................................26
3.3 Description of the Study Area........................................................................................................... 26
3.4 Case Study ........................................................................................................................................ 28
3.5 Data Collection ................................................................................................................................. 29
3.5.1 General....................................................................................................................................... 29
3.5.2 Data Type and Procedures of Data Collection........................................................................... 30
3.5.3 Alternatives for Maintenance Intervention ................................................................................36
3.5.4 Preventive Maintenance Treatment............................................................................................36
3.5.5 The Current Budget and Maintenance Options.......................................................................... 39
3.6 Methods of Data Analysis.................................................................................................................39
CHAPTER FOUR....................................................................................................................................... 41
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION .................................................................................................................41
4.1 General.............................................................................................................................................. 41
4.2 Maintenance Intervention Activities with Corresponding Defects of Roads.................................... 42
4.3 Determine an Appropriate Preventive Maintenance Methods for Different Road Sections Based on
the Results of the LCCA .........................................................................................................................44
4.4 Comparing Cost and Benefits of Different Maintenance Interventions within 20 years ..................46
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4.5 Road Maintenance Preventive Methods for Different Road Conditions in ERA and the Current
Allocated Budget .................................................................................................................................... 48
CHAPTER FIVE ........................................................................................................................................ 51
SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS...............................................................51
5.1 Summary of the Major Findings ....................................................................................................... 51
5.2 Conclusions....................................................................................................................................... 52
5.3 Recommendations.............................................................................................................................53
5.4 Future Research Needs .....................................................................................................................54
REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................................... 55
Annex A: Geographical Map of Alemgena Road Maintenance District
Annex B: Road maintenance options, expected life years and associated costs for the selected
roads
Annex C: Paved Road Condition Survey Form 1: Road Side, Side Drains and Shoulders
Annex D: Paved Road Condition Survey Form 2: Carriageway
Annex E: Alemgena Road maintenance districts sections
Annex F: Sample of Bill of Quantity and Condition Survey
Annex G: Vehicular Operating Costs (2004-2008) EC
Annex H: Average costs for five years (2004-2008) EC
Annex I: Discounted costs for twenty years
Annex J: Altitudes
Annex K: HDM4 Pavement Deterioration Summary (Combined)
Annex L: HDM4 Economic Analysis Summary
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Road defects and corresponding preventive methods………………………………….18
Table 2: Allocated and requested budget for road maintenance in Ethiopia …………………………....20
Table 3: Federal road maintenance regional areas and districts in Ethiopia................................. 27
Table 4: Selected cases of roads from Alemgena maintenance district........................................ 29
Table 5: Study roads network maintenance data .......................................................................... 31
Table 6: Geometry data for HDM-4 ............................................................................................. 32
Table 7: The condition of Paved Roads ........................................................................................ 32
Table 8: Riding quality in IRI in m/km (Bituminous surface)...................................................... 33
Table 9: Traffic band and surface class AADT ............................................................................ 34
Table 10: Asphalt interventions .................................................................................................... 36
Table 11: Maintenance interventions (Asphalt Maintenance Techniques)................................... 37
Table 12: Maintenance intervention activities with corresponding defects of the study roads .... 43
Table 13: Economic analysis results of road maintenance intervention....................................... 45
Table 14: Road maintenance options, expected life years and associated costs for the selected roads
...................................................................................................................................... 47
Table 15: Summary of the current road maintenance costs by ERA ............................................ 47
Table 16: Maintenance activities set by the Ethiopian Road Authority ....................................... 49
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: A flowchart describing LCCA process for pavement type selection .............................. 9
Figure 2: Typical life cycle of road asset...................................................................................... 17
Figure 3: Road maintenance cost comparison for the current verses mproposed interventions... 48
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LIST OF ACRONYMS
AADT: Annual Average Daily Traffic
ERA: Ethiopian Road Authority
ERCC: Ethiopian Road Construction Corporation
ERFO: Ethiopian Road Fund Office
ESAL: Equivalent Standard Axel Load
ETB: Ethiopian Birr
ETCA: Ethiopian Transport Construction Authority
FDRE: Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopian
FHWA: Federal Highway Administration
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
HDM 4: Highway Development and Management Tool
LCCA: Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
NPV: Net Present Value
RSDP: Road Sector Development Program
RUC: Road User Cost
TV: Traffic Volume
WB: World Bank
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ABSTRACT
The main purpose of this study was to conduct the life-cycle cost analysis of road maintenance
interventions undertaken by the Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA), considering the Alemgena
Road Maintenance District as a case study. In order to meet the objectives of the study, a case
study was considered accounting for both quantitative and qualitative data. The road condition
survey data were collected from ERA’s Alemgena Road Maintenance District/(ARMD). From the
five (5) road maintenance sections ten, (10) paved roads were selected for investigation and
analysis. The collected data were entered into the Highway Development and Management Model
(HDM-4) and life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) was carried out to determine the economic viability
of different road maintenance interventions. The roads conditions considered in the study ranges
from poor to fair. The existing conditions of the roads help to determine the kinds of maintenance
/ improvements requirements. All possible input data were collected and entered into HDM-4. The
LCCA was conducted for 20 years with additional one year of intervention period. The analyses
were carried out with consideration of with and without improvement cases. The results indicated
that the proposed interventions were economically viable fulfilling the requirements, with the net
present values (NPVs) of well over zero, economic internal rates of return (EIRRs) of greater than
the opportunity cost of capital, which was (10%), and benefit-cost ratios (B-CRs) of greater than
one. This tells us that consideration of all costs and benefits during the lifetime of the projects give
better decision for proposed interventions alternatives. In terms of budget, the 20 years’ analysis
period was considered in this investigation. The total lifetime cost of maintenance activities
currently applied by ERA is much higher than the proposed maintenance interventions and it is
not economically optimum therefore, based on the findings, workable recommendations and the
need for further research were forwarded.
Key Words: Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Road Maintenance Interventions, Evaluation Parameters
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
It has been a long-established fact that national and regional physical cohesion and market
integration is dependent on a smooth and speedy flow of goods, services and people; which is in
turn reliant on adequate and efficient means of transportation and communication (Mwase, 1995).
In the context of Ethiopia, road network is the major means of transportation in the country and it
is considered as critical to the development of other key economic and social sectors such as
agriculture, industry, mining, tourism, education and health (ERA, 2015; MOFED, 2010).
Historically, the commitment of the Ethiopian government for the expansion of road network
throughout the country goes back to 1951 with the establishment of the Imperial Highway Authority
(IHA). By then, the road network in the whole country was only 6,400 km of which 3,400 km
(53.1%) was asphalt and the remaining 3,000 km (46.9%) was gravel road. In the same manner, the
current government has been working for the development of road transportation; particularly, by
preparing the Road Sector Development Program (RSDP) and establishing separate Road Fund
Administration in 1997 (ERA, 2015; FDRE, 1997). Since then, the road network in the country has
increased from 26,550 km in 1997/8 to 60,466 km in 2013/14 (ERA, 2015; National Planning
Commission, 2015). The above data shows that a dramatic increase in road network (annual average
increase of 5.3%) had been witnessed in Ethiopia in during the sixteen years. Apart from expanding
the road network, proper maintenance of the system should have been taken as vital to preserve its
serviceability and structural integrity; which are important for the effectiveness of transportation
services, safety of road users and economic development (Rouse & Chiu, 2009; Wilde et al., 2014).
Currently, the maintenance of the Federal roads is administered by the Ethiopian Roads Authority
(ERA). ERA is undertaking the maintenance of the entire main road network of the country under
ten maintenance districts, which are the subdivisions of five regional areas organized based on
geographical proximity and convenience.
In Ethiopia, road maintenance is financed by the Government and administered by the Road Fund
Office, established in 1997. The financing of road maintenance was stipulated in the Road Sector
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Development Program (RSDP) that about 26% will be contributed by road users, another 26% will
be coming from regular government budget and the remaining 48% coming from the Development
Partners (Office of Road Fund Administration, 2001). Nevertheless, ERA’s report indicates that
inadequate fund, absence of integrated maintenance intervention measure and lack of
comprehensive approach are noticed as the major problems in road maintenance activities in
Ethiopia (ERA, 2015; MOFED, 2010).
More specifically, with ever-increasing costs of road maintenance and limited budgetary allocation,
it is essential for road agencies to utilize different economic and operations research tools in order
to facilitate proper decision-making for economically reasonable long-term investments.
Nowadays, Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is one of such economic analysis tools with
significant application in road pavement construction and maintenance intervention projects
(FHWA, 2002; Rouse & Chiu, 2009).
Based on principles of economic analysis, the LCCA is widely applied in the estimation of the total
long-term economic viability of different road maintenance intervention options (Babashamsi et
al., 2016). It is a model that helps road agencies in decision-making to optimize the total benefit-
cost relationships of a road over its lifetime in relation to the available financial capacity and
different road maintenance alternatives, thereby improving the economic viability of the road asset
(Rouse & Chiu, 2009). Being induced with this, this study is targeted to assess the life-cycle cost
analysis of road maintenance interventions in the case of Alemgena Road Maintenance District in
Ethiopia.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
The escalating costs, absence of integrated intervention measure and lack of comprehensive
approach in road maintenance in Ethiopia, apparently calls for the use of LCCA for appropriate
economic decision making by ERA in road maintenance interventions. More specifically,
identifying the long-term economic viability of different road maintenance interventions (i.e.,
LCCA) through scientific research, in Ethiopia, appears to be an urgent priority for effective and
efficient management of road asset.
Nevertheless, in the present Ethiopian context, the LCCA of the currently implemented road
maintenance interventions is neither addressed by research nor applied by ERA. With the intention
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of filling this gap, the main purpose of this study is to evaluate the LCCA of road maintenance
interventions taking sample roads from the Alemgena Road Maintenance District in Ethiopia.
1.3 Objectives of the Study
1.3.1 General Objective

<<
The general objective of the study is to propose the appropriate type of maintenance activities at
the right time so as to optimize the total lifetime costs of roads by using LCCA and HDM4 tool.
1.3.2 Specific Objectives

The specific objectives of the study were to:
 Identify different maintenance intervention activities based on road defects;

 Comparing of costs and benefits of different maintenance intervention over 20 years;
 Determine an appropriate preventive method for road sections based on LCCA; and
 Evaluate current and proposed road maintenance option based on current allocated
budget.
1.4 Hypothesis
Currently existed inappropriate maintenance interventions of roads result in a higher lifetime costs.
1.5 Significance of the Study

Determining the LCCA of different road maintenance interventions is a precondition for
implementing economically viable maintenance alternatives and keeping the road asset in good
condition during its lifetime. Currently, however, the LCCA of road maintenance interventions in
Ethiopia has not been examined through research. Therefore, the findings of this study are
envisaged to have the following significance.
 Identify and provide base information for road agencies on the lifetime costs and benefits
of road maintenance interventions in Ethiopia; thereby, indicating on how to integrate
economic variables to the road maintenance planning.
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 The findings could also help the ERA and policy makers in making decisions about the
appropriate road maintenance types with lower lifetime costs and higher net present value
for the economy.
 Finally, it is hoped that the findings of this study and their implications could serve as
stepping stones for conducting further studies in the area of road maintenance activities with
consideration of lifetime costs and benefits.
1.6 Scope of the Study
ERA performs road maintenance activities in five established regional areas and ten maintenance
districts. Out of these, the current study has taken only sample roads from the Alemgena Road
Maintenance District (ARMD), which is the central ERA’s regional areas of road maintenance
activities.
1.7 Limitation of the Study
The data collected in this study were from one road maintenance district (RMD), which is restricted
to the central geographical areas of road network in Ethiopia. The topographic nature, climate zone,
and traffic volume would have significant influence on the cost of maintenance prevalently as well
as over the lifetime of the road. Thus, the findings of this study may not be generalized, but
replicated to other ERA’s regional areas.
1.8 Organization of the Study
This thesis is organized under five chapters. Chapter One presents background of the study,
statement of the problem, objectives of the study, significance of the study, scope of the study and
limitation of the study.
Chapter Two treats reviews of related literatures; Chapter Three deals with the methodology of the
study, which includes; design of the study, description of the study area, sample size and sampling
technique, data type and procedures of data collection, and methods of data analysis.
Chapter Four deals with the analysis of the data and interpretation of the results. Finally, Chapter
Five presents the summary, conclusions and recommendations of the study.
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CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the review of theoretical and empirical literatures related to the topic,
objectives, and variables of the study. The chapter begins by discussing the concept of life-cycle
cost analysis, its purposes as related to road maintenance interventions, and the steps involved in
applying the approach. The components of economic analysis in life cycle costing, types of costs
involved (initial construction costs, maintenance costs and rehabilitation costs), road fund
administration, the types and purposes of road maintenance are also presented in this chapter.
Finally, the chapter includes reviews on such topics like road condition survey, road maintenance
interventions, and data types required for HDM-4 (Highway Development and Management tool).
2.2 The Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
2.2.1 Overview of LCCA
The development of road infrastructure, in any country, stands as one of the investment areas
demanding huge initial capital and maintenance costs (Gwilliam & Shalizi, 1999). With ever-
increasing costs of road construction, maintenance and rehabilitation, road agencies are applying
different models or tools from the fields of economics and operations research in order to facilitate
proper decision-making for economically reasonable long-term investments (Babashamsi et.al.,
2016). Nowadays, Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) is one of such an economic analysis tools
with significant application in road pavement construction and maintenance intervention of projects
(FHWA, 2002; Rouse & Chiu, 2009).
The concept of life-cycle cost-benefit analysis was first introduced in 1960 by the American
Association of State Highway Officials (AASHO) for highway investment decisions; based on the
economic evaluation of highway upgrades during the planning stage (Babashamsi et.al., 2016; Coe,
1981). The cost of road construction consists of design expenses, material extraction, construction
equipment, maintenance and rehabilitation strategies, and operations over the entire service life
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(Frangopol et.al., 1997). Investments in road infrastructure are made with the purpose of providing
service for a relatively extended number of years.
The ability of a given road asset to provide service over its lifetime is not only dependent on initial
investment but also contingent on periodic maintenance and rehabilitation activities (FHWA,
2002). However, in most road investment projects, it is not uncommon that road authorities commit
the available resources more on initial construction costs with less or no emphasis to the future
maintenance and rehabilitation costs. (Babashamsi et.al., 2016) asserts that the LCCA is an
important economic tool that can help road authorities to calculate the lifetime costs and benefits
of highways for making the most preferable investment decisions.
The life cycle costing as related to road asset focuses on the costs associated with all the phases of
its lifetime: design, construction, operation, and maintenance (Baumann, 2006; Rouse & Chiu,
2009). Therefore, the conceptual essence behind the LCCA is that road infrastructure investment
decisions should consider all of the costs incurred during the period over which the alternatives are
being compared (Coe, 1981; FHWA, 2002). As asserted by the foregoing, that is what makes the
LCCA peculiar and highly applicable to road investment decisions by comparing the alternative
projects incorporating both the initial construction and subsequent future maintenance costs.
2.2.2 The Purpose of LCCA in Road Maintenance Interventions
(Frangopol et.al., 1997) noted that many repair maintenance strategies are based on experience and
local practice rather than on sound theoretical investigations. They also argue that maintenance
based solely on experience may be more expensive and less safe than those based on a more rational
approach. This situation clearly calls for the application of the life-cycle cost approach for guiding
decisions in investments of road maintenance. Because of limited capital resources and increasing
demand for new road infrastructure, road authorities usually focus more on lower road maintenance
expenses. In most developing countries, where there are budget constraints, governments and road
authorities are regularly challenged with funding road projects due to limited financial capacity
(Babashamsi et.al., 2016).
The main purpose of LCCA in road investment decisions is, therefore, to optimize the total benefit-
cost relationships of a road over its lifetime (Rouse & Chiu, 2009). Based on principles of economic
analysis, the LCCA is widely applied in the estimation of the total long-term economic viability of
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different road maintenance intervention options (Babashamsi et.al., 2016). As to (FHWA,2002),

the major purposes of applying the LCCA in road maintenance includes the comprising of life cycle
costs, considerations of the agency and user costs, a focus on preservation strategies, and
stewardship.
The inclusion of life cycle costs: Including not only the initial costs of construction but also equally
considering and including future maintenance as well as rehabilitation costs of the road asset is at
the heart of LCCA (Coe, 1981; Frangopol et.al., 1997).
Considerations of both the agency and user costs: The LCCA, as an economic analysis tool for
decision-making purposes, provides a framework for considering tradeoffs between user costs and
additional agency expenses. In the analysis of life-cycle costs; travel time, vehicle costs, and safety
impacts become more important to investment decisions (FHWA, 2002). Therefore, LCCA
provides a means for transportation decision makers to extend consideration of the merits of
alternative projects by accounting for both agency costs and road user costs (Choi.et al., 2016).
The focus on preservation strategies: Unlike the traditional road maintenance, the LCCA justifies
the benefits of preservation activities that are normally performed before distress occurs or
detectable. (Frangopol et.al., 1997) argue that the cost of routine maintenance is difficult to predict
and the focus on prevention strategies are more likely viable in reducing life-cycle costs. In LCCA,
the cheapest is not always taken for granted as the best strategy. By applying specific treatments
before distress occurs, preservation activities delay the onset of deterioration and increase the useful
lives of infrastructure investments, thereby reducing agency expenditures and lowering costs to
users (FHWA, 2002).
In general, the major advantages of applying LCCA in road maintenance interventions are to
forecast the whole life-cycle costs, evaluate the competing options, and judge the trade-offs between
the costs and benefits (Baumann, 2006). He also argued that an integrated approach to design,
construction, operation and maintenance can improve sustainability, design quality, reduce
maintenance requirements and subsequently reduce life-time costs.
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2.2.3 Steps and Components of the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis
The appropriate timing for conducting the life-cycle cost analysis is to start it as early as the project
development or project design stage (Walls & Smith, 1998). The methodological steps involved in
applying the life-cycle cost analysis to the road maintenance appeared to be similar in the literature
with slight differences based on the purpose for which the analysis is required. As to the
(FHWA,2002), LCCA involves five sequential steps that include:
 Establish alternative pavement design strategies for the analysis period;

 Determine performance periods and activity timing;
 Estimate costs (agency and user);
 Compute life-cycle costs; and
 Analyze the results.
The first step in the LCCA process is to define realistic design options. For every likely option, it
is important to identify initial construction or rehabilitation activities, as well as to predict future
rehabilitation and maintenance activities and the times of those individual actions. Hence, a plan of
activities must be created for each design option.
The next step is to estimate costs for all activities. In this regard, it is recommended to include not
only direct agency expenses (construction or maintenance activities) but also user costs, in order to
get a better picture of the impact of maintenance/repair (Walls & Smith, 1998). After cost is defined
for every possible option, then the total life-cycle costs for each competing alternative can be
calculated. LCCA uses discounting to convert future costs to present values so that the lifetime
costs of different alternatives can be directly compared (Babashamsi et.al., 2016). Figure 1 below
represents costs that could be included in the calculation and LCCA process.
All costs in LCCA are divided into four groups: construction, agencies, users and environmental
costs. These costs are individually calculated for each competing alternative. If one of the
alternatives does not include a certain cost, then the others should also exclude this cost: only then
can the alternatives be fairly compared. For example, if one alternative includes road markings into
LCCA, then the other alternatives must include road markings too. Some of the costs can be difficult
to quantify, so their inclusion in the project can be optional. To be able to fairly compare all
opportunities, the discount rate and analysis period should be the same for all alternatives (FHWA,
2002).
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There are different parameters to compare life-cycle costs and the most common ones are: Net
Present Worth (NPW) method, Benefit Cost Ratio (B/C ratio), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and
Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost (EUAC) method, with the most popular being IRR and NPW
parameters.
Initial Construction Agencies costs: User costs Environmental

cost: Maintenance costs User costs: costs:
Land Procurement Rehabilitation costs Vehicle operating cost Pollution
Design Workers salary Time delay costs Noise
Equipment costs Workers salary Accident costs Visual impacts
Material costs Etc. Etc. Etc.
Workers salary
Etc.
Financial costs
LCCA Discount rate
Analysis period
Etc.
Outputs:
NPW
EUAC
B/C ratio
IRR
Figure 1: A flowchart describing LCCA process for pavement type selection

Source: (Babashamsi et.al., 2016).
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2.3 Economic Analysis Components
2.3.1 Evaluation Methods
Life-cycle cost analysis as a decision-making tool takes into account the costs and benefits and help
us to compare the economic viability of different alternative projects. There are different economic
measures that are used by decision-makers. (Walls & Smith, 1998) states that net present value
(NPV) or sometimes called Net Present Worth (NPW) is the most commonly used economic
measure in road investment projects.
 Net Present Value or Net Present Worth (NPW)
Net present value (NPV) is the discounted present value of a stream of benefits and costs over time.
The NPV represents the net gain in welfare to society from the construction of a project. The option
with the highest NPV is considered the most viable option and is submitted for funding. The logic
behind this assumption is that any increase in NPV is an increase in welfare over the next best
alternative and it is the most appropriate measure for selecting from mutually exclusive project
options (Ketema et.al., 2016).
As already mentioned, for evaluating the economic viability of road pavement, the NPV of costs is
considered as commonly applied computation. Mathematically it can be represented as follows
(Babashamsi et.al., 2016, p.248).
1 1
NPV Initial Cost Future Cost Salvage Value
1 i 1 i
Where:
N= number of future costs incurred over the analysis period;
i = discount rate in percent;
nk = number of years from the initial construction to the Kth expenditure; and
ne = analysis period in years.
Alternatively, (Ketema et al., 2016) also presents the formula for net present worth as follows.
1 1 1 1
NPW Ic Mc Rc Uc Sv
1 dr 1 dr 1 dr 1 dr
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Where:
Ic = initial construction cost;
Mc = maintenance cost;
Rc = rehabilitation cost;
Uc = user cost (user time and fuel saving cost);
Sv = salvage value; n= number of years; and
N= analysis period in years; dr= discount rate.
2.3.2 Analysis Period
The outcomes of LCCA results are significantly affected by activity timing and performance period
and it should be sufficiently long to reflect long-term cost differences associated with reasonable
design strategies (FHWA, 2002). The analysis period should generally always be longer than the
pavement design period, except in the case of extremely long-lived pavements. Normally, the
analysis period should be long enough to incorporate at least one rehabilitation activity; and longer
performance period for individual pavement designs require fewer rehabilitation projects and
associated agency and work zones user costs (Walls & Smith, 1998).
A study conducted by (Babashamsi et.al., 2016) indicated that the overlays lasted 15 years and
some lasted 20 years until significant distress signs were noted. Thus, they stated that most road-
project evaluations use an evaluation period of thirty years, and ten to fifteen years for intersection
evaluations. However, a shorter analysis period may be appropriate, particularly when pavement
design alternatives are developed to buy time (say 10 years) until total reconstruction (Davies,
2012).
2.3.3 Discount Rate
Discount rate is a critical component of the discounted cash flow calculation, an equation that
determines how much a series of future cash flows is worth as a single lump sum value today.
The estimated future costs and benefits need to be discounted to the present value using a discount
rate for appropriate comparison. (Walls & Smith,1998) states that distinction has to be made in
LCCA between the real and nominal discount rates. Real discount rates reflect the true time value
of money with no inflation premium and should be used in conjunction with non-inflated monetary
Workie Tegen 11
cost estimates of future investments. Nominal discount rates include an inflation component and
should only be used in conjunction with inflated future monetary cost estimates of future
investments. Discount rate is the rough difference between the interest and inflation rates and it
indicates the real value of money over time (Babashamsi et.al., 2016).
2.3.4 Sensitivity and Risk Analysis
All road projects involve some degree of uncertainty in the outcome of the project. The decision to
proceed with a project therefore includes some element of risk taken by road authorities. Many road
projects will have a significant element of risk attached to them. These will in general be due to
several factors among which the following are the main causes:
 Unforeseen events beyond the control of the engineer, for example, improved technology,
political changes
 National economic changes; for example, future economic growth, traffic growth rates.
 Unpredictability of pavement performance due to environment, traffic, construction.
 Impact on socio-economic factors that cannot be evaluated (Kerali, 2002).
When we apply NPV in life-cycle cost analysis, there are some critical factors that could affect the
result. In line with this, (Walls & Smith,1998) states that the LCCA should incorporate a sensitivity
analysis to address the variability within major analyses input assumptions and estimates. For (Choi
et.al., 2016), sensitivity analysis includes: maintenance costs and critical factors. The ultimate
extension of sensitivity analysis is a probabilistic approach, which allows all significant inputs to
vary simultaneously.
(Kelle et.al., 2013) suggest a methodology that includes risk measures combined with benefit and
cost measures in road maintenance project selection processes. This is done using hazard efficiency
score for each site and they identified three hazard types: total crashes, injury crashes, and run-off-
road crashes. Moreover, the use of NPV in LCCA is sensitive to the analysis period, cost factors,
traffic volume, and discount rates among others (Walls & Smith, 1998).
2.4 Cost Factors in LCCA

One major feature of LCCA in economic analysis is its suitability to include and support different
cost components associated with road maintenance projects. There are different cost factors that are
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identified in the literature to consider in life-cycle cost analysis. For (Babashamsi et.al.,2016), the
cost factors take two major categories in LCCA. These are: (1) Direct/owner or Agency costs – that
includes initial construction or rehabilitation cost, sequence for future maintenance and
rehabilitation costs, and salvage value; (2) Indirect/User costs highway lost revenue costs, and
drivers/passengers delay costs.
In the Ethiopian context, the total transport cost includes the costs of road construction and
maintenance, vehicle-operating costs, and any other external or third party costs of transport that
are associated to the society at large and the environment (Office of Road Fund Administration of
Ethiopia, 2001). Perhaps the most commonly used cost factors in road projects are the initial
construction costs and the subsequent future maintenance and rehabilitation costs (Coe, 1981; Walls
& Smith, 1998). Each of these are discussed in detail hereunder.
2.4.1 Initial Construction Cost
The initial investment costs of road construction have dominated both the attention and commitment
of government road agencies in many countries (Baum & Tolbert, 1985). This is a cost component
which includes costs related to design and construction of road projects (Sauter, 1967). These type
of cost components are very common and take the largest share of road fund in countries prioritizing
the expansion of road network infrastructure. It is apparent that construction or start-up costs need
to be considered in the LCCA. The initial construction cost is presented in unit prices from bid
records of projects constructed in previous years and only representative prices must be used
(Babashamsi et.al., 2016). Unit prices may be taken out from the overall cost of previous projects
if the representative costs are not available.
However, construction operations represent only the beginning of the process of accumulating a
properly functioning highway system and the relevant costs to be considered in selecting the degree
and type of addition to the road network must include maintenance costs along with construction
costs (Coe, 1981). It has been widely mentioned in the literature that the economic rates of return
on road maintenance are typically higher than on road construction (Baum & Tolbert, 1985). If
highways are not adequately maintained their positive contributions to national economy and
mobility may be erased or even reversed. Thus, the next section of the paper discusses the
maintenance and rehabilitation costs.
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2.4.2 Maintenance and Rehabilitation Costs
If already constructed roads have to serve for a longer time, they have to be maintained and
rehabilitated. In line with this, (Mwase,1995) argue that returns to investment will be higher through
maintenance than expanded road infrastructure. Another advantage of life-cycle cost analysis is not
only considering the initial construction cost but also the accounting of road operation,
maintenance, and rehabilitation costs. By doing so, the LCCA makes it possible the comparison of
different road maintenance interventions in relation to their life-time costs and benefits.
Consequently, maintenance and rehabilitation costs are another matter that require due attention in
the process of life-cycle cost analysis.
Road infrastructure operating costs include maintenance and rehabilitation costs (Davies, 2012). As
it will be discussed in the next section of this paper, there are different types of road maintenance
and rehabilitation strategies or interventions. (Coe, 1981) states that costs associated with road
maintenance vary depending on the type and scale of maintenance strategies.
As to the study conducted by (Baum & Tolbert,1985), one of the major continuing problems in
transportation in developing countries, including Ethiopia, is the overemphasis on new construction
and the inadequate attention to maintenance. As a result, the deterioration of roads and of the
maintenance is becoming an urgent problem in these countries. Consequently, failure to act in good
time raises the costs of rehabilitation and upgrading. For instance, in Kenya, the decline in
disbursement for road maintenance expenditures due to increase in the total road network and the
subsequent increase in the total number of kilometers of roads under maintenance have created
pressure on the resources available (Nalo, 1993).
One of the difficulties in determining maintenance costs is the unavailability of cost data due to
poor of inefficient record keeping thereby making the differentiation between maintenance actions
challenging (Babashamsi et.al., 2016). They also recommend that historical records of the actual
pavement costs and activities must be utilized if these costs have to be considered in the LCCA
procedure.
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2.4.3 Agency Costs
Another essential cost factor in the computation of LCCA is to estimate and include the costs
incurred by agency or road agencies. Agency costs include all costs incurred directly by the agency
over the life of the project (i.e., costs directly related to the initial design and subsequent
rehabilitation strategy). Agency costs commonly include initial preliminary engineering, contract
administration, construction supervision and construction costs, as well as future routine and
preventive maintenance, resurfacing and rehabilitation cost, and the associated administrative cost
(Walls and Smith, 1998).
2.4.4 User Costs
Road user costs may be defined as the costs incurred by vehicle operators and by the travelling
public at large. The four types of road user costs usually considered are associated with vehicle
operation, travel time, accidents and discomfort. The last two costs are difficult to quantify in
monetary terms, although accident costs can be estimated in several ways in terms of both resource
content (for example, cost of spares and vehicle replacement), and the injuries and fatalities (Nalo,
1993; Walls & Smith, 1998). However, the lack of acceptable methods of estimating accident and
discomfort costs in developing countries are the main reason why these two components of road
user costs are not included in existing road investment appraisal models for developing countries.
The vehicle Operating Cost components are: fuel and lubricating oil consumption, tyres and spare
parts, vehicle maintenance labor costs, vehicle crew wages, vehicle depreciation and interest on
capital. The other costs and components are: construction costs, maintenance and rehabilitation
costs and discount rate (Walls & Smith, 1998; Tillotson et.al, 1998).
2.4.5 Salvage Values
The economic evaluation of a given road asset in life-cycle cost analysis often include the salvage
value of that asset. Salvage value is the term commonly used to indicate the remaining service life
of a road network after its normal life-time has expired (Walls & Smith, 1998). It is the value of the
road asset computed based on the remaining life of an alternative at the end of the analysis period
as a prorated share of the last rehabilitation cost; can also be taken as the percentage of initial
pavement construction cost (Babashamsi et.al., 2016; Coe, 1981).
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2.5 Road Maintenance
Road maintenance is an activity that is designed to keep a road network serviceable by reducing the
deterioration of pavements (FHWA, 1996). Suitable preventive maintenance providing the greatest
benefit at the lowest cost in the network is the most effective approach. On the other hand, (Rouse
& Chiu, 2009) stated that road maintenance involves activities performed by road agencies in order
to maintain the condition of the road above an acceptable quality level. Still other writers in the
field describe road maintenance as involving several categories of activities executed in order to
increase the productivity and return to investments on such projects (Baum & Tolbert, 1985;
Poister, 1983). All these definitions lead us to describe the purposes of road maintenance under the
section that follows.
Preventive maintenance has the potential to improve network condition by retarding future
pavement deterioration. Road maintenance is essential in order to:
 Preserve the road in its originally constructed condition;

 Protect adjacent resources and user safety; and
 Provide cost-effective, shortest time, and environmentally friendly travel on the routes.
The main purpose of road maintenance is to preserve the asset, not to upgrade it. Unlike major road
works, maintenance must be done regularly. The major activities in road maintenance are “keeping
pavement, shoulders, slopes, drainage facilities and all other structures and property within the road
margins as near as possible to their as-constructed or renewed condition” (Poister, 1983). It helps
to make minor repairs and improvements to eliminate the causes of defects and to avoid excessive
repetition of maintenance efforts.
For management and operational convenience, road maintenance activities are categorized as
routine, periodic, and urgent are explained below:
 Routine maintenance comprises small-scale works conducted regularly, aims “to ensure the
daily pass ability and safety of existing roads in the short-run and to prevent premature
deterioration of the roads” (Rouse & Chiu, 2009). Frequency of activities vary but is generally
once or more a week or month. Typical activities include roadside verge clearing and grass
cutting, cleaning of silted ditches and culverts, patching, and pothole repair. For gravel roads,
it may include regarding every six months.
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 Periodic maintenance covers activities on a section of road at regular and relatively long
intervals, aims “to preserve the structural integrity of the road” (Rouse & Chiu, 2009). These
operations tend to be in large scale, requiring specialized equipment and skilled personnel.
They cost more than routine maintenance works and require specific identification and
planning for implementation and often even design. Activities can be classified as preventive,
resurfacing, overlay, and pavement reconstruction. Resealing and overlay works are generally
undertaken in response to measured deterioration in road conditions. For a paved road,
repaving is needed about every eight years; for a gravel road as re-graveling is needed about
every three years. Periodic maintenance is an activity that is undertaken every 3-8 yrs. and is
concerned with rectifying defects which are outside the scope of routine maintenance.
 Urgent maintenance is undertaken for repairs that cannot be foreseen but require immediate
attention, such as collapsed culverts or landslides that block a road (Wilde et.al., 2014). Rouse
& Chiu (2009) clearly put that the strategic aim of road maintenance should focus on
performing the right types of maintenance activities (i.e. routine, periodic, or emergency
maintenance), at the right time on a road so as to optimize the total benefit-cost relationships
of a road over its lifetime. Figure 2 below illustrates the performances of routine and periodic
maintenance.
Routine maintenance
Pavement
Quality
Acceptable
Periodic maintenance
Pavement Life
Figure 2: Typical life cycle of road asset

Source (Rouse & Chiu,2009)
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2.5.1 Road Defects and Corresponding Preventive Methods
Table 1: Road defects and corresponding preventive methods Source: (Abelson et.al., 2000)
2.6 Road Fund Administration
Problems of roads and road transportation include not only inadequate financial resource but also
inefficient institutional provision for road maintenance and lack of rational planning of road
investment (Baum & Tolbert, 1985). (Mwase,1995) noted that the Eastern and Southern African
(ESA) sub-region has, since late 1970s, experienced rapid, sustained and regular deterioration in
transportation infrastructure primarily because of scarcity of resources for recurrent and capital
expenditure. The presence of proper and strong road fund administration is closely associated with
productive highway maintenance programs (Poister, 1983).
In response to the problem, countries have set different institutional frameworks for road fund
administration. Accordingly, Ethiopia also established a body that is responsible for road fund
administration in 1997 by issuing a proclamation named as, "Road Fund Establishment
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Proclamation No. 66/1 997" (Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, 1997). The fund is
administered by the Board and its main objective was to finance the maintenance of roads and road
safety measures. The stated proclamation also mentions sources of road funds as:
 budget allocated by the Government;

 road maintenance fuel levy;
 annual vehicle license renewal fee based on axle load;
 overloading fine; and
 any other road tariff levied as may be necessary (FDRE, 1997).
Insufficient funds for road maintenance, unreliable timing of funds and inefficient implementation
of works are the conditions that justify the establishment of road fund (Gwilliam & Shalizi, 1999).
The report of the Office of the (Road Fund Administration, 2001) showed that the allocation of road
fund by the government is based on the recommendations of the Road Fund Board on fund budget
allocation and redistribution criteria for Road agencies; i.e. seventy percent (70%) for federal ERA,
twenty percent (20%) for the regional roads administrations (RRAs) and ten percent (10%) for the
selected municipalities. The Federal ERA takes seventy percent (70%) of the Road Fund budget
and then distribute it to the ten districts for allocation by road segments. Payments to ERA are
effected on performance agreement bases as per agreed maintenance activity unit rate. Performance
payment certificates for each month are sent to the Road Fund Office from ERA. The other Road
agencies' payments are effected based on quarterly cash flow program bases (Office of Road Fund
Administration, 2001).
It is inevitable that as the road network increases, the maintenance need increases accordingly,
thereby increasing the required budget. However, due to the insufficiency of the yearly allocated
maintenance budget, it is difficult to provide adequate and timely maintenance to the entire road
network. This will have associated impact on the road users such as increase in vehicle operating
costs and hence reluctance to use the road in addition to increasing the maintenance cost. Table 2
presents the requested versus allocated budgets for road administration in Ethiopia between 2011/11
and 2015/16.
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Table 2: Allocated & requested budget for road maintenance in Ethiopia
Allocated
Item Requested Difference Birr
Budget Year Budget by RF
No. Budget (ETB) (ETB)
(ETB)
1 2010/11 1,772,214,171 715,000,000 1,057,214,171

2 2011/12 1,075,906,663 846,500,000 229,406,663
3 2012/13 1,637,424,806 931,150,000 706,274,806
4 2013/14 1,927,200,000 931,150,000 996,050,000
5 2014/15 2,023,560,000 808,316,705 1,215,243,295
6 2015/16 2,666,600,000 889,148,375 1,777,451,625
Total 11,102,905,640 5,121,265,080 5,981,640,560
Average Budget Difference 996,940,093
Note: -RF=Road Fund
Source: ERA, 2015.
As indicated in the above Table 2, the yearly-allocated budget for maintenance work is much less
than the requested budget. This could be due to the limited amount of income that office of the road
fund collects from fuel levy, axle weight based vehicle license renewal fee, and overloading fines.
Based on the fund office’s budget allocation scheme, which shows yearly budgets allocation by
increasing 10% on the previous year’s allocated budget, the expected maintenance budget to be
allocated for the next four years have been forecasted and a comparison is made with the expected
maintenance need.
In relation to this, (Levinson, 2005) pointed that if roads deteriorate to the point, at which they need
reconstruction, restoring them to the original level of service costs three to five times more than
timely and effective maintenance costs. Consequently, postponing road maintenance increases not
only total costs but also the present value of the future cost stream at any reasonable rate of discount.
2.7 Road Condition Survey
Road condition survey involves the collection of data about the status of road network for further
improvement actions. In the words of (Poister, 1983), road condition surveys precisely involve
identifying deficiencies in surface, shoulder, drainage, and ancillary condition in order to rate and
categorize the road into different condition status thereby indicating whether maintenance is
required and with what scale. Whereas surface conditions mainly relate to potholes and prevalence
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of pattern cracking, shoulder and drainage conditions emphasizes on shoulder slope and shoulder
drop-off, obstructed cross-pipes and nonfunctional inlets and end walls (Newbery, 1989).
Road condition survey should be carried out annually on the whole network. This is an important
survey as it collects the data necessary for preparing the annual work program. It is also the
management tool to assist in the decision to maintain or program for rehabilitation (ERA, 2014).
Since pavement distresses are generally taken as a function of traffic loads, environmental
conditions, and their interaction, the road condition survey should provide information on the nature
and causes of distress in selecting an appropriate treatment (FHWA, 1996). In the Ethiopian context,
it has been mentioned that the absence of reliable database on the country’s road conditions
remained as a threat on decision-making process of Road Funds both at central and Road agency
levels (Office of Road Fund Administration, 2001).
Since allocation and prioritization is made based on available data source, there is a critical need
for having road condition survey results and reliable information on road stock.
2.8 Road Network Types
The road network types are based on the functional classification of the roads. The network types
are as follows:
 Primary: Arterial, main, trunk, or national roads, which are roads outside urban areas that
belong to the top-level road network and generally, have higher design standards than other
roads. These roads generally provide the highest level of mobility, at the highest speed, for long
interrupted traffic. These roads form the principal avenue of communication between and
through major regions of the country, between regional capitals and key towns that have
significant national economic and social interaction, and between the country and adjoining
countries, whose main function is to provide access to major freight terminals, including ports.
 Secondary: Collectors, classified as rural or regional roads, which are the main feeder routes
into primary roads, and provide the main links between primary roads. These roads generally
provide a lower degree of mobility than primary roads, being designed for travel at lower speeds
and for shorter distances. These roads form the principal avenue of communication between
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primary roads and key towns and between primary roads and important centers, which have a
significant economic, social tourist, or recreation role (for example, tourism and resource
development).
 Tertiary: Local roads, which are classified as rural or local roads. The roads are characterized
by a comparatively low-level design standard and traffic. These roads provide basic access
between residential and commercial properties, connecting with higher-order roads. The function
of these roads is to provide the only access to scattered rural settlements and primarily serve
local social services, as well as provide access to markets and generally form the first phase of
the journey for commuters.
 Unclassified: Unclassified roads, which are roads that do not fall into any of the previous
categories. These roads comprise special-purpose public roads that cannot be assigned to any
other class above, and which are provided almost exclusively for one specific activity or
function, such as recreational, forestry, mining, national parks, or dam access.
 Urban: Urban roads, streets, and avenues, which are located within the boundaries of cities or
towns (Rodrigo Archondo,2007).
2.9 Highway Development and Management (HDM-4)
2.9.1 General
In managing the road network under the jurisdiction of a given authority, it is important that actions
taken at different management levels are justified from all relevant perspectives to ensure that
sustainable road network will result which minimizes long-term transportation costs (given budget
constraints) and which creates conducive environment to economic growth and development. This
has implications for analyses at the strategy level, the program level and the project level (Schuttee,
2008).
2.9.2 Purpose of the HDM-4
The Highway Development and Management (HDM-4) tool is aimed at facilitating the analysis of
alternatives in respect of road maintenance and investment activities. It focuses on the technical and
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economic appraisal of road projects, the preparation of road investment Programs as well as the
analysis of road network strategies (Schuttee, 2008)
 Strategy Analysis
Typical examples of strategy analysis by road agencies would include the following:
 Medium to long term forecasts of funding requirements for specified target road
maintenance standards;
 Forecasts of long-term road network performance under varying levels of funding;
 Optimal allocation of funds according to defined budget heads; for example, routine
maintenance, periodic maintenance and development (capital) budgets;
 Optimal allocations of funds to sub-networks; for example, by functional road class
(main feeder and urban roads, etc.) or by administrative region; and
 Policy studies such as impact of changes to the axle load limit, pavement maintenance
standards, energy balance analysis, provision of non-motorized traffic (NMT) facilities,
sustainable road network size, evaluation of pavement design standards, etc. (Kerali,
2002).
 Program Analysis
Program analysis “... deals primarily with the prioritization of a defined long list of candidate road
projects into a one-year or multi-year work program under defined budget constraints” (Kerali,
2002).
 Project Analysis
Project analysis deals with the “...evaluation of one or more road projects or investment options;
application analyses a road link or section with user-selected treatments, with associated costs and
benefits; projected annually over the analysis period. Economic indicators are determined for the
different investment options”. Projects may typically include “... the maintenance and rehabilitation
of existing roads, widening or geometric improvement schemes, pavement upgrading and new
construction (Kerali, 2002).
HDM-4 is a tool for economic optimization of maintenance of road networks and has been adopted
or applied in many different countries for economic analysis and prioritization It utilizes road
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network inventory and condition, traffic and economic data to feed a series of road deterioration
and cost models, and to formulate candidate work programs for road networks (Schuttee, 2008).
2.9.3 HDM4 System for LCCA
the HDM4 has required a huge amount of data. While collecting data, it should be aimed that the
collected data, directly or in its derived form should meet the requirements of HDM-4 system
general. The data types can be categories as;
 Inventory data,
 Pavement Condition data (ERA method),
 Traffic/Loads,
 Costs - Construction, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction
 History Initial Construction, Rehabilitation, Reconstruction, (Last Treatment) and etc.
 Inventory Data; the inventory data includes the following details about the selected
pavement sections: Name of road, category of road, carriageway and shoulder width and
its number of lanes, drainage conditions, surface type and thickness, pavement layer
details, Country, legislative district and etc.
 Pavement Condition Evaluation; in general, under this data collection type the
Pavement Roughness or Ride Quality, Surface Distress, Rutting, Skid Resistance and
Structural Capacity can be determined. These data can be used to determine the need for
annual condition surveys, ride quality, surface distress, rutting, friction, and to evaluate
the current condition of pavement, determining rates of deterioration, project future
conditions and to determine current and future maintenance & rehabilitation needs and
its future cost of repairs. In general term, it can be sub divided into three categories;
a) Structural Evaluation: The magnitude of pavement rebound deflection is an

indicator of the ability of the pavement to withstand traffic loading. Higher the
rebound deflection, poor is the structural capacity and performance. The practice
hitherto is to use the Benkelman Beam deflection method for evaluating the structural
condition of the flexible pavement.
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b) Functional Evaluation: Functional evaluation of pavements consists of collection of

road data pertinent to surface distress (crack area, raveled area, pothole area), rut
depth, surface roughness etc. having observed the type and extent of distress
developed at the surface i.e. cracking, raveling, patch work, potholes, rut depth, edge
break and etc. based on the visual condition survey. The extent and type of distress
developed in quantitative terms will also be measured, in addition to the visual
recording of the pavement surface condition.
c) Road Roughness; is the irregularities in the pavement surface affecting user comfort
and safety due to variations in horizontal, vertical, and transverse profiles ride quality
user perception of Pavement Roughness. This roughness can be measured using
profiler. The instrument measure pavement wheel path profile(s) to assess pavement
ride quality and convert pavement wheel path profile (l&r) to Pavement Ride Quality
Indices (IRI).
 Surface Distress; while evaluating and collecting data on surface distress one has to
consider;
 Type of Distress (Cracking, Patching, Rutting)
 Severity (Crack Width, Condition Assessment)
 Extent (Percentage of the Pavement Length
 Rut Depth Measurement; the transverse deformation across the wheel path is defined
as the rut.
 Structural Load Capacity; It is assessment of the load carrying capacity of the pavement
structure using coring/borings/lab tests (destructive type) or Falling Weight Deflectometer
(fwd) (non-destructive test)
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CHAPTER THREE
MATERIALS RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 General
This chapter deals with the research design and methodology employed in the study. It presents
design of the study, description of the study area, case study, data type and procedures of data
collection, and methods of data analysis.
3.2 Design of the Study

Research design involves the overall guiding approach for conducting a study and selection of a
particular design that depends on the purpose of the study under investigation (Creswell, 2009).
Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to conduct the life-cycle cost analysis for road
maintenance interventions being undertaken by the Ethiopian Federal Roads Authority, the case of
selected roads under the ARMD. The ultimate objective is to carry out the cost-benefit analysis of
three road maintenance interventions (i.e., routine, periodic, and emergency road maintenance) and
perform comparative analysis thereby recommend the optimum alternative with lifetime costs
resulting in higher NPV and other economic parameters like internal rate of return (IRR), benefit-
cost ratio (B-CR) etc.
In order to achieve this objective, a case study was conducted by focusing on the road networks
currently administered under ARMD of the ERA. According to (Creswell, 2009), case study design
is appropriate for a study that involves an in-depth investigation of a particular case by collecting
multiple data on the issue being studied.
3.3 Description of the Study Area
Currently, the Federal road maintenance in Ethiopia is administered by the Ethiopian Roads
Authority, which is organized under five regional areas and ten districts on the bases of
geographical proximity and convenience for effective and efficient management. Table 3 below
shows the regional areas and respective districts.
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Table 3: Federal road maintenance regional areas and districts in Ethiopia

Federal Road Maintenance Regional Road Maintenance Districts Under Each
S. No.
Areas Regional Areas
1. Gonder District
2. Adigrat District
1 Northern ERA Regional areas
3. DebreMarkos District
4. Combolcha District
5. Shashemene District
2 Southern ERA Regional areas
6. Sodo District
3 Eastern ERA Regional areas 7. Dire Dawa District
8. Jimma District
4 Western ERA Regional areas
9. Nekempte District
5 Central ERA Regional areas 10. Alemgena District
Among these five regional areas with ten districts, this study focused on the Alemgena District
under which is the ERA Central Regional area is located. The ARMD is responsible for undertaking
the construction and maintenance activities of the Federal roads comprising of the regions of
Oromia, Amhara and Southern Peoples Regional States. The road network under the district
comprises of five major outlets from the capital city of Addis Ababa. which have high economic
and social importance. Alemgena District serves as the main gate to peoples of the surrounding
regions, agricultural produce, and industrial products to and from Addis Ababa (the capital city of
Ethiopia). It is also the main inlet and outlet of imports and exports between Addis Ababa and the
Djibouti port.
The Road Network under Alemgena District compromises of 2,406 km of Asphalt and 2,086 km of
gravel roads, aggregating to 4,492 km. Road maintenance activities of nine road sections are
undertaken under the Alemgena District and these road sections are: Modjo Section; Butajira
Section; Endiber Section; Muketuri Section; Ambo Section; Weliso Section; Debre Birhan Section;
Workie Tegen 27
Robit Section; and Huruta Section. In 2016 FY, 2,291 km and 117 km of roads were maintained
under Alemgena District with routine and periodic treatments respectively.
3.4 Case Study
As indicated in the preceding section, a case study design was employed for this study focusing on
sample roads under the Alemgena District. There are 85 sub-sections under 9 sections of the ARMD
as stipulated below:
 Mukaturi Section (Ten sub section of paved and unpaved roads);

 Ambo Section (Eight sub section of paved and unpaved roads);
 Wolliso Section (Nine sub section of paved and unpaved roads);
 Huruta Section (Thirteen sub section of paved and unpaved roads);
 Robit Section (Eight sub section of paved and unpaved roads);
 Debre Brhan Section (Nine sub section of paved and unpaved roads);
 Modjo Section (Nine sub section of paved and unpaved roads);
 Butajera Section (Eleven sub section of paved and unpaved roads); and
 Emdiber Section (Eight sub section of paved and unpaved roads).
From the above nine section, 10 paved roads were selected for analysis in this study. The selected
roads are presented in Table 4 below, which presents the study road in respect of name, length,
maintenance and surface types.
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Table 4: Selected roads from Alemgena Maintenance District
No Road Name Length Type of Maintenance Surface

(km) Type
Butajira Section
1. Butajira-Wolbareg 54 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
2. Wolbareg-Hossana 46 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
3. Alemgena-Lemon 42 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
4. Lemon-Butajira 74 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
Mukature Section
1. Commando-Fiche 7 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
Ambo Section
2. Ambo-Gedo 64 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
Robit Section
1. Robit-Ataye 48 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
2. Gudobert-D/Sina 30 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
Endberi Section
1. Kosi-G/Gibe No.2 35 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
2. Butajera-Zeway 54 Routine & Periodic Asphalt
3.5 Data Collection
3.5.1 General
In this study, the data for the above selected roads is based on the condition surveys and bill of
quantities by considering the period from 2004 E.C. (2011/12 G.C.) to 2008 E.C. (2015/16 G.C.).
Then, Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) was conducted under different road maintenance
interventions by using the HDM4 software.
Workie Tegen 29
3.5.2 Data Type and Procedures of Data Collection
3.5.2.1 Data Type
Both qualitative and quantitative data were used in this study. The qualitative data used in this study
related with the description of selected road condition status and review of different road
maintenance interventions. The quantitative data focused on the numerical measures involved in
LCCA. The data were collected from ERA’s road condition surveys on Alemgena Road Network
and from reviewed literatures. The secondary data were identified and presented under different
input categories, which are discussed under the following sub-sections.
3.5.2.2 Procedures of Data Collection
The procedures of data collection followed two major phases. In the first phase, all the required
input data type was identified for LCCA using HDM-4. In the second phase, identified data were
collected by reviewing ERA’s road condition survey for the selected road networks.
3.5.2.3 Input Data Required for HDM-4
HDM-4 is a powerful system for the analysis of road management alternatives (Chopra et.al., 2017).
With different application tools, HDM-4 can be applied in project analysis, program analysis,
strategy analysis, research, and policy studies. The project analysis tool of the HDM-4 is used for
comparing the NPV of the three road maintenance alternatives (i.e., routine, periodic, and
emergency maintenance) for the selected road network in this study.
 Input Data Required for HDM-4
In this study the type of data required for HDM-4 were categorized into five types and are stated as
follows:
 Road network:
 Traffic volume and vehicle composition;
 Road user cost (RUC); and
 Works Standards (Maintenance Standard and Improvement Standard).
Each of these data components are discussed hereunder by specifically focusing on type and
measure used that are directly relevant to this study.
Workie Tegen 30
 Road Network Data
Road Network data refer to inventory, pavement history, and pavement condition data etc.
 Road Inventory Data
Road inventory data collection consists of road length (m), lane width (m), shoulder width (m),
geometries of road sections, traffic flow pattern, design speed (km/h), flow direction and climate
zone. Road sections have been visually inspected to get relevant information. Accordingly, the
researcher was started by collecting secondary data which includes names of the road network, the
section to which the road belongs, survey year, its current condition, road type and road length.
Table 5 shows the road network data.
Table 5: Study roads network data

Year Name of the road Section Pavement Road Road Data Processed
Condition Type Length
(km)
2012 Butajira-Wolebareg Butajira Good Link 54 Condition Survey &Boq
Wolbareg-Hossana Butajira Poor Link 64 Condition Survey &Boq
2013 Alemgena-Lemon Butajira Poor Link 42 Condition Survey &Boq
Lemon-Butajira Butajira Poor Link 74 Condition Survey &Boq
2014 Commando-Fiche Mukatri Poor Trunk 7 Condition Survey &Boq
Ambo-Gedo Ambo Poor Trunk 64 Condition Survey &Boq
2015 Robit-Ataye Robit Poor Trunk 48 Condition Survey &Boq
Gudobert-D/sina Robit Good Trunk 30 Condition Survey &Boq
2016 Kosi-GlGibeNo.II Endberi Fair Feeder 35 Condition Survey &Boq
Butajira-Zeway Butajira Fair Access 54 Condition Survey &Boq
Note:
 Primary road (main, trunk or national roads outside urban areas);
 Secondary road (the main feeder routes of primary roads the main link);
 Tertiary (Local roads or rural roads provide access);
 Collector - Unclassified road; and
 Feeder- urban which are within the boundary.
Workie Tegen 31
Table 6: Geometry data for HDM-4 source (HDM4 version 1.1,2000)
Rise Number Horizontal Superelevation Speed

Geometry Class +Fall of Rise Curvature (%) limit
(m/km) & Fall (deg/km) (km/hr)
per km
Bendy and generally level 3 2 50 2.5 100
Bendy and gently undulating 15 2 75 3 80
Bendy and severely undulating 25 3 150 5 70
Windy and gently undulating 20 3 300 5 60
Bendy and gently undulating was used in the study, since it represents the Ethiopian road
conditions. Road specific data were not available at ERA. However, actual design speed limit and
altitudes were used in the study.
 Pavement History Data
Pavement history data (type of pavement, year of last construction, surfacing and maintenance)
were collected from Alemgena Road Maintenance District. Table 7 presents the pavement history
data for the selected road network used in this study.
Table 7: The condition of Paved Roads Source: (HDM4 version 1.1,2000)
Paved Cracking Ravelling No. potholes Edge break Mean rut

road (%) (%) per km (m2 per km) depth (mm)
condition
New 0 0 0 0 0
Good 0 1 0 0 2
Fair 5 10 0 10 5
Poor 15 20 5 100 15
Bad 25 30 50 300 25
 Functional and Structural Evaluation of Road Pavements
The functional evaluation like roughness measurement survey has been conducted to assess the
riding comfort and safety over the pavement section as experienced by road users . The data is
shown in Table 8 below.
Workie Tegen 32
 Primary: Arterial, main, trunk, or national roads, which are roads outside urban areas that
belong to the top-level road network and generally, have higher design standards than other
roads.
 Secondary: Collectors, classified as rural or regional roads, which are the main feeder routes
into primary roads, and provide the main links between primary roads. These roads generally
provide a lower degree of mobility than primary roads,
 Tertiary: Local roads, which are classified as rural or local roads. The roads are characterized
by a comparatively low-level design standard and traffic. These roads provide basic access
between residential and commercial properties, connecting with higher-order roads.
 Unclassified: Unclassified roads, which are roads that do not fall into any of the previous
categories. These roads comprise special-purpose public roads that cannot be assigned to any
other class above, and which are provided almost exclusively for one specific activity or
function, such as recreational, forestry, mining, national parks, or dam access.
 Urban: Urban roads, streets, and avenues, which are located within the boundaries of cities or
towns.
Table 8: Riding Quality in IRI in m/km (Bituminous surface)

Source; HDM4 version 1.1 (2000).
Road Class Good Fair Poor Bad
Primary or Trunk 2 4 6 8
Secondary or Main 3 5 7 9
Tertiary or Local 4 6 8 10
 Traffic Volume and Vehicle Composition
Vehicle fleet data contains the characteristics of the vehicle fleet that will be operating on the road
network being analyzed. It comprises a mix of several vehicle types that use a road network. It uses
a set of representative vehicles for which a number of physical and performance characteristics are
defined. The vehicles can be grouped using two levels of classification as follows:
 Categories include motorized and non-motorized vehicles.
Workie Tegen 33
 Types are vehicle type that represent a set of vehicles within a class, which has different
characteristics. There are 16 types of which 12 motorized vehicle types and 4 non-motorized
vehicles within HDM-4.
Traffic data are not input in one folder; they are rather incorporated in several modules. Traffic
includes the following:
 Traffic categories including normal, diverted, and generated;
 Traffic composition including volume and growth rates;
 Axle loading;
 Road capacity and speed flow relationships; and
 Traffic- flow pattern.
Table 9 below presents traffic band and surface class including AADT.
Table 9: Traffic band and surface class AADT source:(HDM4 version 1.1,2000)
Surface class AADT

Traffic Band
Bituminous Unsealed Concrete
Low 0-750 0-75 0-3000
Medium 750-3000 75-175 3000-7500
High 3000-75000 175-800 7500-15000
However, Actual AADT were used in the study roads.
 Road User Cost (RUC) Data
The impacts of the road condition, as well the road design standards, on road users are measured in
terms of road user costs, and other social and environmental effects. Road user costs comprise:
 Vehicle operation costs (fuel, tyres, oil, spare parts, vehicle deprecation, utilization, etc.);
 Costs of travel time for both passengers and cargo, due to road condition and traffic
congestion (Hoban, 1987); and
 Costs to the economy of road accidents (i.e. loss of life, injury to road users, damage to
vehicles and other roadside objects). In developing countries, it is difficult to quantify road
accidents in monetary value (Kerali, 2002). In this study, although there is a provision for
road accidents, no accident data were included since they were not available in Ethiopia.
Workie Tegen 34
 Works Standards
In HDM4 Maintenance and Improvement Standards are used to represent targets or levels of
condition and maintenance responses that are aimed to achieve the required standards.
 Maintenance Standards
The maintenance standards are the maintenance works required to maintain the road network at the
target level. Each Maintenance Standard consists of a set of one or more works items. Each works
item is defined in terms of the road surface class to which it applies, an intervention level, an
operation type (e.g. reseal, overlay, etc.), and the resultant effect on the pavement (Wighman et.al.,
2000).
 Improvement Standards
Improvement standards are defined as road improvement works to be carried out should the state
of the road network fall below a certain level. Each Improvement Standard is defined in terms of
the road surface class to which it applies, an intervention level, an improvement type, the cost and
duration of the works, and the resultant effect on the pavement in terms of its condition, geometry,
strength, etc. Supported improvement types include: lane addition, partial widening, reconstruction,
and upgrading (Wighman et.al., 2000).
Workie Tegen 35
3.5.3 Alternatives for Maintenance Intervention
The proposed maintenance for asphalt road interventions are indicated in the following table.
Table 10: Asphalt Interventions source: (Wilde et.al.,2014)

Alternatives Roughness Traffic Range (MT AADT)
Damage
Range
Area (%) <500 501-1500 1501-3000 3001-5000 >5000
(IRI in m/km)
1 ≤ 30 Routine Routine Routine Routine Routine
IRI≤3.5 25mm 25mm
>30 15mm SBSD 15mm SBSD 15mm SBSD
DBSD DBSD
2 25mm
25mm DBSD 50mm
3.5 ≤IRI ≤5.5 All 15mm SBSD 15mm SBSD
DBSD With shape Overlay
correction
3 15mm SBSD 25mm DBSD
50mm 60mm 70mm
5.5 ≤IRI≤ 8 All With shape with shape
Overlay Overlay Overlay
correction correction
4 25mm
Strength. Strength. Strength.
DBSD
8 ≤ IRI≤ 10.5 All 50mm Overlay with 60mm with 70mm with 70mm
With shape
ACS ACS ACS
correction
5 Strength. Recon. Recon.
Strength. with Recon. with
IRI>10.5 All with 25mm with 70mm with 70
50mm ACS 60mm ACS
DBSD ACS ACS
6 Recon. with
Recon. with
IRI>11.5 All 25mm - - -
50mm ACS
DBSD
Note: SBSD = Single Bituminous Surface Dressing.

DBSD = Double Bituminous Surface Dressing.
ACS = Asphalt Concrete Surface.
3.5.4 Preventive Maintenance Treatment

As indicated below in Table 11, the most common flexible pavement distresses are shown along
with their corresponding best practices for rehabilitation. Also in Table 11, recommended
applications are specified for crack sealers and fillers, surface treatments, and pothole patching. List
of maintenance techniques and the reasons for using each and treatment life is also given in the
table below.
Workie Tegen 36
Table 11: Maintenance interventions (Asphalt Maintenance Techniques)

Average
Technique Reason for use Treatment
Life
Friction Reveling Rutting Pothole Cracking
L M H
Crack Treatments
Crack repair with

sealing
Clean & seal x x 3

Saw & seal 7-10
Rout & seal x x 3
Crack filling x x 2-3
Full-depth crack x 5
repair
Surface treatment
Fog seal x 1-2

Seal coat x x 3-6
Double chip seal x x 7-10
Slurry seal x x 3-5
Micro surfacing x x x 5-8
Thin Hot-mix- x x 5-8
overlay
Pothole and patching repair
Cold-mix asphalt x 1
Spray injection- x 1-3
patching
Hot-mix asphalt x x 3-6
Patching w/slurry x x 1-3

or micro surfacing
material
Note: L = Low; M = Medium; H = High

Source: Wilde et.al, (2014).
The cost values are considered to vary depending on the project location and its environmental
condition (Wilde et.al., 2014).
Workie Tegen 37
3.5.4.1 Selecting Potential Project Alternatives for Comparison
There are different types of road maintenance alternatives that would be applied by road authorities.
For this study, three maintenance alternatives were identified and included in the comparison of
LCCA. These are: ‘Do minimum’, ‘Do something’, and ‘Do major works’ (UK Roads Liaison
Group, 2011). These maintenance strategies are discussed below separately by indicating the
maintenance alternatives they include and associated cost implications.
 ‘Do Minimum’. Under a ‘Do Minimum’ strategy, the highway authority would undertake
reactive repairs to safety defects only. These are likely to be superficial repairs and would
possibly be temporary in nature. The repairs would not arrest the decline of the asset and
frequent re-visits are likely to be required. In the short term, routine maintenance costs are
likely to be high due to the ongoing liability to repair the defects. There is also an increased
risk of personal injury accidents (resulting from road users’ interface with the defective
asset) and the resulting legal consequences.
 ‘Do Something’. This approach seeks to do the minimal amount of routine maintenance
work to keep the asset safe and serviceable. Works will normally be restricted to the repair
of critical defects. However, the works effort will be slightly enhanced in comparison to the
‘Do minimum’ as repairs will normally be permanent in nature although they will add no
value to the asset. In the context of a pavement scheme a ‘Do something’ approach might
be limited to the permanent repair of potholes only. These would be undertaken on an
isolated basis or may extend to small patches.
 ‘Do Major Works’ or Periodic maintenance is likely to involve capital expenditure by an

authority rather than routine expenditure. It may include wholesale replacement or major
repair of an asset to a level that will enhance its long-term durability and minimize future
routine maintenance. A pro-active approach may also be adopted which means that repair
takes place before the condition intervention level is reached. In the context of maintenance
scheme this could see the treatment of a section of pavement classified as being in the ‘poor’
condition category.
Workie Tegen 38
3.5.5 The Current Budget and Maintenance Options
The other factor that determines possible options of road maintenance interventions, in Ethiopia, is
the amount and availability of budget. Since there are limited resources in the Country, the use of
available budget by applying proper cost effective road maintenance intervention is recommended.
Since 1999, the road maintenance costs used by ERA have been based on the cost breakdown that
were prepared and used by the Ethiopian Road Construction Corporation (ERCC). The ERCC is a
government development agency, established under the ERA to carry out mainly road and bridge
construction, maintenance and enhancement works. The maintenance cost used by ERCC has
remained constant from year to year, despite the apparent increase in the desired maintenance costs
over time.
3.6 Methods of Data Analysis

In this study, the data analysis was carried out for LCCA involving different road maintenance
interventions by using the HDM-4 software package. The collected data were analyzed through the
following procedural steps. Firstly, the collected data under different input type were entered
manually into the HDM-4 software to make it ready for analysis. Secondly, the analyses were
carried out by following the project analysis approach of the HDM-4.
Project analysis is concerned with the evaluation of one or more road projects or investment options.
It includes the appraisal of maintenance and rehabilitation options for existing roads, widening or
geometric improvement schemes, pavement upgrading, new road construction, etc. In HDM-4,
project analysis involves performing three interrelated activities as follows;
 Specifying Alternatives: the given alternatives are with the project (with the
improvements) and without the project (without improvements).
 Conducting Analysis: the economic analysis was conducted based on specified

alternatives (i.e., with or without project) using the current discount rate. Ten percent (10%)
was included in the analysis as commonly used in Ethiopia.
 Generating the Report. Finally, the economic parameters were identified after running
the HDM-4 software and generating the reports.
Thirdly, based on the results, different road maintenance interventions, interpretations and
discussions of the findings were presented. Finally, summary of the findings, conclusions, and
Workie Tegen 39
recommendations were forwarded. Based on the findings, directions for future research are also
indicated in the last section of the paper.
Workie Tegen 40
CHAPTER FOUR
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

4.1 General
This chapter presents the analysis, results and discussions of the research in accordance to the
objectives of the study.
 Identifying different road maintenance interventions with corresponding defects;

 Comparing cost and benefits of different maintenance interventions within 20 years;
 Determine an appropriate preventive maintenance methods for different road sections based
on the results of the LCCA; and
 For studied road sections propose different road maintenance preventive methods based on
currently allocated budget.
At district level the data collector personnel conduct condition survey (visual Condition survey)
every three months for budgeting purpose to maintain the damaged roads or spots at the section. In
this level of condition survey the personnel uses visual inspection to determine/survey the extent
and type of distress and etc. The visual condition survey used to measure various types and degrees
or severity of distress. The components which can be measure using visual Condition survey are
surface defects (such as longitudinal joint cracks, potholes, raveling, bleeding and lacy edge),
permanent deformation or distortion, fatigue cracking and patch deterioration. However, as the data
on the condition survey of the ERA is collected by visual inspection it can be subjected to certain
level inaccuracy. The unit rate on table 12 below, is based on the data from ARMD.
The following are criteria indicators used in HDM-4 version 1.1 (2000)
 Good roads have no cracking, Ravelling, Potholes Edge break and Mean rut depth.
 Fair roads have 5% cracking, 10%Ravelling, no. of potholes per km,10m2/km for edge break
and 5mm mean rut depth.
 Poor roads have 15% cracking, 20%Ravelling, 5 no. of potholes per km,100m2/km for edge
break and 15mm mean rut depth.
 Bad roads have 25% cracking, 30%Ravelling, 50 no. potholes per km,300m2/km for edge
break and 25mm mean rut depth.
Workie Tegen 41
4.2 Maintenance Intervention Activities with Corresponding Defects of Roads
One of the specific objectives of this study is to identify maintenance interventions that correspond
with the current road condition status. In doing so, the current study identified the condition status
of the selected roads under Alemgena Maintenance District of the Ethiopian Roads Authority, based
on road condition survey. As shown in Table 12 below, most of the proposed road sections were in
poor conditions (2012-2015 GC). Accordingly, from the selected ten roads, six of them were in
poor condition. These roads were: Wolbareg-Hosana, Alemgena-Lemon, Lemon-Butajira,
Commando-Fiche, Ambo-Gedo, and Robit-Ataya. Only two roads (Butajira-Wolbareg and
Gudober-D/Sina) were in good condition (2012&2015GC). On the other hand, Kosse-G/Gibe No.2
and Butajira-Zeway routes were in fair condition (2016EFY) during the specified Fiscal Years. The
same table also shows that the AADT of the road sections ranged from less than 500 (low) to 501-
1500 (medium). Based on the road condition status, the corresponding maintenance activities were
also identified for each road section along with its unit price per km/ETB.
As per our intervention criteria for each road section its maintenance activities with corresponding
defects are as shown in the table 12 below.
Workie Tegen 42
Table 12: Maintenance intervention with corresponding defects of the study roads
Rough Unit Price
Road Damage AADT
Pavement ness per km
Year Route Name Length Area 1500-
condition <500 501-1500 (ETB)
(km) (%) 3000
(IRI) 2009EC
≤ 30 Routine
Butajira-
15mm
Wolbareg - -
54 Good 3 >30 SBSD 322,000
2012 25mm
DBSD -
Wolbareg-
- with shape
Hosana
correction
46 Poor 7 All 630,000
Alemgena- 50mm
- - Overlay
Lemon 42 Poor 7 All 1,925,000
2013
Lemon- 50mm
- Overlay
Butajira 74 Poor 7 All 1,925,000
25mm
Commando- DBSD -
-
Fiche with shape
7 poor 6 All correction 630,000
2014
25mm
DBSD -
Ambo- Gedo -
with shape
64 poor 6 All correction 630,000
25mm
DBSD -
Robit-Ataya -
with shape
48 Poor 6 All correction 630,000
2015
≤ 30 Routine
Gudober-
15mm -
D/Sina -
30 Good 2 >30 SBSD 322,000
25mm
Kosse- DBSD
- -
G/GibeNo.2 with shape
35 Fair 6 All correction 630,000
2016
25mm
Butajira- DBSD
- -
Zeway with shape
54 Fair 6 All correction 630,000
Note: ETB= Ethiopian Birr

DBSD=Double Bituminous Surface Dressing
SBSD=Single Bituminous Surface Dressing
Source: Wilde et.al. (2014).
Workie Tegen 43
4.3 Determine an Appropriate Preventive Maintenance Methods for

Different Road Sections Based on the Results of the LCCA
One of the characteristics of road asset management is that it involves life cycle performance.
decisions on road maintenance investments should be considered in terms of serviceability over its
lifetime. Road agencies seek to make more informed and comprehensive maintenance investment
decisions, because the selection of a particular road maintenance activity will have a big impact on
future costs and the level of service for the users. Another core objective of this study was to
compute and compare the life-cycle costs-benefits of different road maintenance activities.
Therefore, in this study, the economic analysis of road maintenance interventions was carried out
using the HDM-4 by comparing with and without project scenarios for each of the project road
sections. With project scenario was defined based on pavement condition and capacity analysis
improvement options (i.e., pavement rehabilitation/reconstruction and capacity improvements like
widening to standard two lane configuration). The without project scenario involves basic
maintenance and periodic surface renewals to the existing roads.
Analysis period of 21 years including one (1) year of construction was considered. In order to
compute the economic parameter or the net present value (NPV) of the identified maintenance
interventions, a discount rate of 10% was used as normally used by the ERA. Results of the
economic analysis interms of NPV (ETB million) for the proposed road maintenance options are
presented in Table 13 below.
To achieve each treatment optimum intervention criteria, several criteria were chosen for a
treatment in HDM runs that were based on roughness, road condition and traffic volume (see Khan,
2005 for details). This approach was repeated for all the criteria for a section and then different road
sections were used to obtain an optimal solution. In each HDM run, two alternative treatment
intervention criteria were used for a section, and then two output NPV values were compared to
achieve better solutions. Thus, all the selected sections were optimized to obtain the best solution.
Benefit (NPV/cost) and road condition maximization objectives can be chosen together to obtain
the better optimum maintenance standards, which can be carried out using linear programming or
general algorithm.
Workie Tegen 44
Table 13: Economic analysis results of road maintenance intervention
NPV
Road No. Road Name
(ETB Million)
1 Butajira-Wolbareg 413
2 Wolbareg-Hosana 413
3 Alemgena-Lemon 520
4 Lemon-Butajira 520
5 Commando-Fiche 710
6 Ambo-Gedo 987
7 Robe-Eteye 710
8 Gudober-D/Sina 178
9 Kosse-G/GibeNo.2 57
10 Butajira-Zeway 86
Average 456
Note: NPV = Net present value
Based on HDM4 analysts have calculated the present value of all benefits and costs associated with
a road project, they can divide benefits by costs to calculate a benefit-cost ratio. A ratio greater than
one indicates that estimated benefits exceed estimated costs.
The results of the analysis presented in Table 13 indicate that the proposed option (with and
without-project) are all economically viable with overall average NPV at Birr 456 million the
thresholds for the above parameter is "0" in the case of NPV; "
AS depicted in Table 13, above the NPVs are much higher for the roads in the case of Ambo-Gedo
(NPV=987), Commando-Fiche(NPV=710), Robe-Eteye (NPV=710), Alemgena-
Lemon(NPV=520), Lemon-Butajira (NPV=520), Butajira-Wolbareg (NPV=413), Wolbareg-
Hosana (NPV=413), and Gudober-D/Sina (NPV=178). Nevertheless, the NPVs are lower for
Kosse-G/Gibe No.2 and Butajira-Zeway roads as compared to other routes. The details are attached
in annex-L.
Workie Tegen 45
In general, the proposed maintenance interventions in this study are economically worthwhile, if
implemented by the ERA in the case of Alemgena Road Maintenance District.
4.4 Comparing Cost and Benefits of Different Maintenance Interventions within 20

years
The comparison of life-cycle cost of different road maintenance interventions is one basic aspects
of decision-making for road authorities. In this study, the total costs of the current road maintenance
practice by ERA and the total cost of the proposed maintenance alternative were compared over the
analysis period of 20 years. Accordingly, Table 13 below shows the proposed road maintenance
options, the expected life in years and associated costs for one case study (i.e., Butajira-Wolbareg,
is depicted below. The corresponding data for the remaining nine roads is presented in Annex-B.
Table 14 presents the summary of road maintenance costs current used by ERA and proposed
maintenance costs over 20 years.
As shown on the table 14 the road maintenance options are classified in to four.
 Initial condition the road assumed to be at good condition and it needs no maintenance
activity.
 On the years between Two to Four it is recommended to do minimum routine maintenance
activities. (minor repair each year)
 On the years between Five to Seven it is recommended to do something routine maintenance
activities (activities of greater than do minimum like permanent repair of potholes).
 On the years eight it is recommended to do major maintenance activities (periodic
maintenance it involves capital expenditure).
This maintenance option repeats themselves in a cycle every eight years until the end of the design
life, which is twenty years.
The cost estimated for routine and periodic maintenance is based on an average cost per kilometer
per year of ERA road condition survey data. In the case of Butajira-Wolbareg the average cost per
kilometer for routine maintenance has been ETB 35,136.11 and that of periodic maintenance has
been ETB 237,236.08. According to the analysis made because of budget limitation, more than 90%
of the maintenance by ERA has been routine. Table 14 shows a simple of road maintenance options
Workie Tegen 46
of Butajira-Wolbareg road section in ARMD. The remaining road sections are attached in Annex-
B.
Table 14: Road maintenance options, expected life years and associated costs for the selected roads
Butajira-Wolbareg
Cost for Routine and
Road Periodic(ETB)
Years Length Total Cost
No Options of (km) Routine Periodic Discounted
. Maintenance Maintenance Maintenance Cost(ETB)
1 Construction 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 5,270,416.50 0.00 3,971,741.140
3 Do Something (5-7) 5,834,351.10 0.00 3,302,264.110
4 Do major works 8 0.00 2,705,749.80 1,262,252.26
5 Do nothing 9 54 0.00 0.00 0.0
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 7,027,222.00 0.00 2,361,730.53
7 Do Something (14-17) 7,729,944.20 0.00 1,774,403.10
8 Do major works 18 0.00 2,705,749.80 486,652.89
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 3,513,611.00 0.00 548,389.68
Discounted cost 13,707,433.72
Table 15: Summary of the current road maintenance costs by ERA and
proposed maintenance cost for 20 years (ETB)
Total summary of costs under ERA Road Maintenance
Total Currently Total Proposed
practiced Maintenance cost for
S.No. Project Km maintenance cost 20 years
1 Butajira-Wolbareg 54 23,035,573.67 13,707,434.00
2 Wolbareg-Hosana 46 49,637,853.44 18,825,753.00
3 Alemgena-Lemon 42 84,263,957.42 16,523,531.00
4 Lemon-Butajira 74 54,754,117.11 52,313,349.00
5 Commando-Fiche 7 1,702,712.74 1,286,163.00
6 Ambo-Gedo 64 93,249,892.56 15,891,741.00
7 Robe-Etaye 48 97,329,597.49 42,103,614.00
8 Gudober-D/Sina 30 7,478,688.97 3,459,344.00
9 Kosse-G/GibeNo.2 35 3,568,573.04 5,426,308.00
10 Butajira-Zeway 54 42,790,579.91 14,525,394.00
Total discounted cost 457,811,564.34 184,062,631.00
The difference discounted cost(ETB) 273,748,915.34
Workie Tegen 47
As can be seen from table 15, the total lifetime 20 years of analysis period cost of road maintenance
currently practiced by ERA indicates 457,811,564.34 ETB, whereas the total cost of the proposed
maintenance alternative is 184,062,631 ETB. This indicates that the total cost of maintaining roads
under the current ERA’s practice is much higher than the proposed maintenance option. This could
imply that ERA has to evaluate and adapt a new way of practice in selecting road maintenance
intervention, by considering lifetime costs and expected economic returns.
The comparison the cost difference shows that the current maintenance interventions activities by
ERA is causing higher life time costs. This implies that the maintenance interventions by ERA are
inappropriate as they have resulted in higher costs than benefits.
LCCA Comparsion of selected roads
Total Currently practiced maintenance cost Total Proposed Maintenance cost for 20 years
Figure 3: Road maintenance cost comparison for the current and proposed interventions
4.5 Road Maintenance Preventive Methods for Different Road Conditions in

ERA and the Current Allocated Budget
The government report on road maintenance activities in Ethiopia demonstrates that the amount of
budget allocated in the last two decades were much lower than what has been required for proper
Workie Tegen 48
maintenance options (National Planning Commission, 2015). Due to such limited resources for road
maintenance in Ethiopia, the use of available budget by applying proper cost effective road
maintenance intervention is recommended.
As presented in Table 16 below, the ERA in 2003, set up different maintenance activities for paved
roads corresponding to routine and periodic maintenance alternatives along with the needed unit
price in ETB. The unit price presented on table 16 is based on ERCC contract price. This unit price
much lower compared to unit price of other contractors. As it has been figured out during data
collection stage, most of the maintenance works ERA road project are undertaken by ERCC with a
relatively lower price.
Table 16: Maintenance Activities set by the Ethiopian Road Authority Source: (ERA, 2003)
Category Scope Ref. Maintenance Activity Type Unit Unit Price
No. ETB for
the year
(2003)
210 Asphalt Patching (Seal Coat) m2 25.15
211 Asphalt Patching (Single Surface
Treatment m2 28.81
212 Asphalt Patching (Double Surface
Treatment) m2 49.74
213 Asphalt Patching (Cold Mix) m3 2,137.12
Routine 214 Asphalt Patching (Hot mini-mix)) m3 2,433.69
Maintenance Pavement 215 Crack Sealing (Individual cracks) lm 22.85
216 Pothole Reinstatement (Double Surface 48.09
Treatment) m2
217 Pothole Reinstatement (Cold mix) m3 2,264.72
218 Pothole Reinstatement (Hot mini- mix) m3 2,541.69
Drainage 230 Ditch Cleaning (Machine) km 2,814.99
240 Shoulder Blading km 463.38
Road side 241 Shoulder Rehabilitation m3 94.29
309 Sand seal coat m2 13.8
310 Single Bituminous Surface 1.01
Treatment(SBST) m2
Periodic 311 Double Bituminous Surface 35.29
Maintenance Pavement 2
Treatment(DBST) m
312 Mix-in-place overlay (cold mix) m3 1,414.29
313 Asphalt Concrete overlay m3 2,064.46
314 Bitumen Prime Coat Lt 15.8
315 Bitumen Tack Coat Lt 16.72
Workie Tegen 49
From the identified road maintenance interventions for each road condition in the Table 16, we can
see that for each of road cases, appropriate maintenance interventions are needed to improve and
sustain its lifetime serviceability. The results, in this study, appeared to support that applying routine
and periodic maintenance in a proactive manner at appropriate time will likely reduce the total
lifetime costs of road maintenance.
For a particular type of maintenance activities acting in a timely manner with appropriate
intervention will have a significant role to minimize costs of road maintenance and mitigate
associated social economic problems.
Workie Tegen 50
CHAPTER FIVE
SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary of the Major Findings

The main purpose of this study was to conduct the life-cycle cost analysis for road maintenance
interventions at the Ethiopian Federal Roads Authority, the case of the Alemgena Road
Maintenance District. The ultimate objective was to compare the cost-benefit analysis of different
road maintenance interventions thereby recommending the optimum total lifetime costs. The
specific objectives of the study were to:
 identify different maintenance activities with corresponding defects of roads;
 compare life cycle cost-benefits of different road maintenance activities;
 determine an appropriate preventive method for different road sections based on the result
of Life Cycle Cost Analysis; and
 determine different road maintenance methods for different road conditions in ERA on
current allocated budget.
In order to meet the objectives of the study specified above, a case study was conducted and both
quantitative and qualitative data were collected from ERA’s road condition survey at Alemgena
Road Maintenance District. In total, the Alemgena Road Maintenance District consists of nine (9)
road sections and various sub-sections of paved and unpaved roads. From these, 5 (five) road
maintenance sections 10 (ten) paved roads were selected and included in this study.
The qualitative data used in this study considered the description of the selected road condition and
review of different road maintenance interventions. The quantitative data focused on numerical
measures required in life-cycle cost analysis and HDM-4 software package. The collected input
data were entered into the HDM-4 and the analysis of LCCA was carried out in order to determine
the economic parameters of the net present value (NPV), for the study roads maintenance
interventions. As a result, of the LCCA using HDM-4, the following major findings were observed:
Workie Tegen 51
 The results of data analysis indicated that, from the selected ten roads, six of them were in
poor condition; two were in fair condition; and only two were in good condition. Thus,
based on the road condition status, the maintenance activities corresponding with defects of
the roads were identified for each road sections.
 The results from the LCCA using the HDM-4 model, comparing with and without project
alternatives for each of the project road section indicated that under with-project cases all
economically viable with the NPV greater than zero.
 The results of analysis showed that applying the routine and periodic maintenance at
appropriate time for roads with poor/fair conditions, in a proactive manner, will significantly
decrease the total lifetime costs and improve the conditions of those roads.
 In terms of budget, the current total cost of road maintenance implemented by ERA seems
to be focused on short-term reaction and much higher in long-term life cycle of the road
asset. On the contrary, the proposed maintenance interventions in this study was found to
be lower by 273,748,915.34 ETB of total lifetime cost of maintenance than the one currently
practiced by ERA.
5.2 Conclusions
The LCCA is a decision-making tool widely applied by road agencies in the selection of
economically viable road maintenance interventions that would result in higher NPV and less
lifetime costs of road projects. From the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the empirical
analysis of the data collected from the ARMD supported the theoretical proposition that LCCA
using rational maintenance interventions would generate positive and sound economic parameter
(NPV) by accounting for lifetime costs and benefits. Thus, the LCCA can be a reliable and
preferable tool for ERA to optimize its road maintenance interventions.
As it can be seen from the findings of this study, for a particular type of maintenance activity acting
in a timely manner with appropriate intervention will have a significant role to minimize costs of
road maintenance and mitigate associated social economic problems. It can also be concluded that
the least cost investment option for road maintenance is not always economically a viable option.
In addition to these, in this study, it was found that, applying both routine and periodic maintenance
Workie Tegen 52
at appropriate time is needed in order to improve and sustain serviceability of road asset thereby
reduces the total lifetime costs of maintaining roads. This is in line with that selecting appropriate
maintenance activities will decrease the lifetime costs of the roads while increasing the economic
return with less road user costs. As a result, the proposed maintenance interventions based on the
outputs of HDM-4 for the study roads under ARMD were all found to be economically viable and
cost-effective to invest on.
The comparison of the LCCA from the currently practiced maintenance options of the ERA with
the proposed options has shown a considerable difference in such a way that the current practice is
causing as significantly higher costs.
5.3 Recommendations
Based on the findings of this study, the following recommendations are forwarded for
considerations by the ERA and pertinent policy makers:
 It was found that selecting and implementing road maintenance interventions corresponding
with road condition status (road defects) by using LCCA would help to decrease the lifetime
costs of road assets by increasing serviceability over the lifetime. Therefore, ERA has to
reconsider improvement of its current practice of selecting least cost maintenance
intervention, without considering lifetime costs and expected economic returns of those
options.
 It is the economic principle of LCCA that postponing the currently needed road maintenance
or switching to inappropriate maintenance intervention in the name of budget shortage will
likely increase the lifetime cost of maintaining the road. Thus, the Road Fund Office has to
increase its financing capacity by applying more revenue options and by diversifying its
funding sources.
 If ERA needs to increase the lifetime benefits of its road network, it has to give proper
attention to appropriate and timely road maintenance interventions by applying decision-
making tools like LCCA and HDM-4 in its road asset management.
 Policy makers and planners directly working on road infrastructure development need to
incorporate the LCCA into the budget allocation parameters for road maintenance.
Workie Tegen 53
5.4 Future Research Needs

 Due to lack of data, the LCCA was not addressed for gravel road maintenance interventions
in this study. Thus, future studies are needed by collecting data on both paved and gravel
road maintenance options for proper decision-making.
 Since the cost of road maintenance depends on such factors like climate zone, traffic
volume, topography, and others, future research is needed on LCCA of road maintenance
in Ethiopia by taking representative sample roads from all ERA’s road maintenance regional
areas and ten maintenance districts.
 Given the limited amount of budget for road maintenance in Ethiopia, determining the
possible optimal mix of different maintenance interventions using the LCCA and HDM-4
was left to future studies in the area.
Workie Tegen 54
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Annex A: Geographical Map of Alemgena Road Maintenance District

Annex B: Road maintenance options, expected life years and associated costs for the selected
roads
Butajira-Wolbareg
Cost
Options of Life Road Discounted
S.No. Routine Periodic
Maintenance Years Length Cost
Maintenance Maintenance
1 Construction 1 0.0 0.0 0.0
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 5,270,416.50 0.0 3,971,741.14
3 Do Something (5-7) 5,834,351.07 0.0 3,302,264.11
4 Do major works 8 0.0 2,705,749.82 1,262,252.26
5 Do nothing 9 54 0.0 0.0 -
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 7,027,222.00 0.0 2,361,730.53
7 Do Something (14-17) 7,729,944.20 0.0 1,774,403.10
8 Do major works 18 0.0 2,705,749.82 486,652.89
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 3,513,611.00 0.0 548,389.68
10 Total cost of the project 13,707,433.72
Wolbareg-Hosana
1 Construction 1 0 0 0
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 7516460.013 0 5664340.469
3 Do Something (5-7) 8320721.103 0 4709558.679
4 Do major works 8 0 2712817.167 1265549.23
5 Do nothing 9 46 0 0 0
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 10021946.68 0 3368206.875
7 Do Something (14-17) 11104567.3 0 2548081.748
8 Do major works 18 0 2712817.167 487924.0129
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 5010973.342 0 782091.7204
Alemgena-Lemon
1 Construction 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 4628096.55 0.00 3487694.28
3 Do Something (5-7) 5090906.21 0.00 2882391.97
4 Do major works 8 0.00 9344295.77 4359182.94
5 Do nothing 9 42 0.00 0.00 0.00
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 6170795.40 0.00 2073900.03
7 Do Something (14-17) 6787874.94 0.00 1558151.79
8 Do major works 18 0.00 9344295.77 1680653.73
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 3085397.70 0.00 481555.94
Annex B: Continued...
Lemon-Butajira
Cost
Options of Life Road
S.No. Routine Periodic Total Cost
Maintenance Years Length
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 22000891.17 0 16579684.85
3 Do Something (5-7) 24200980.29 0 13702218.89
4 Do major works 8 0 3831130.789 1787250.788
5 Do nothing 9 74 0 0 0
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 29334521.56 0 9858836.843
7 Do Something (14-17) 32267973.72 0 7407090.04
8 Do major works 18 0 3831130.789 689062.5477
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 14667260.78 0 2289204.598
Commando-Fiche
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 549219.24 0 413886.9577
3 Do Something (5-7) 604141.164 0 342055.337
4 Do major works 8 0 65065.618 30353.59099
5 Do nothing 9 7 0 0 0
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 732292.32 0 246111.0705
7 Do Something (14-17) 805521.552 0 184906.8899
8 Do major works 18 0 65065.618 11702.62332
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 366146.16 0 57146.55829
Ambo-Gedo
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 6040056.87 0 4551735.592
3 Do Something (5-7) 6644062.557 0 3761764.952
4 Do major works 8 0 3418549.929 1594778.771
5 Do nothing 9 64 0 0 0
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 8053409.16 0 2706614.689
7 Do Something (14-17) 8858750.076 0 2033519.676
8 Do major works 18 0 3418549.929 614856.2535
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 4026704.58 0 628471.1766
Robe-Etaye
Cost
1 Construction 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 8,229,743.04 0.00 6,201,864.50
3 Do Something (5-7) 12,264,324.38 0.00 6,943,869.84
4 Do major works 8 0.00 31,963,375.24 14,911,150.44
5 Do nothing 9 48 0.00 0.00 0.00
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 10,972,990.72 0.00 3,687,836.70
7 Do Something (14-17) 16,352,432.51 0.00 3,753,689.06
8 Do major works 18 0.00 31,963,375.24 5,748,893.99
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 5,486,495.36 0.00 856,309.20
Gudober-D/Sina
1 Construction 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 1,372,204.80 0.00 1,034,081.89
3 Do Something (5-7) 1,509,425.28 0.00 854,613.13
4 Do major works 8 0.00 543,016.26 253,321.09
5 Do nothing 9 30 0.00 0.00 0.00
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 1,829,606.40 0.00 614,899.78
7 Do Something (14-17) 2,017,141.06 0.00 462,888.25
8 Do major works 18 0.00 543,016.26 97,666.25
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 914,803.20 0.00 142,778.65
Kosse-G/GibeNo.2
1 Construction 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 2,296,285.32 0.00 1,730,461.13
3 Do Something (5-7) 2,525,913.85 0.00 1,430,133.16
4 Do major works 8 0.00 347,632.12 162,172.95
5 Do nothing 9 35 0.00 0.00 0.00
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 3,061,713.76 0.00 1,028,990.24
7 Do Something (14-17) 3,375,539.42 0.00 774,609.96
8 Do major works 18 0.00 347,632.12 62,524.69
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 1,530,856.88 0.00 238,929.73
Butajira-Zeway
Cost
1 Construction 1 0.00 0.00 0.00
2 Do Minimum (2-4) 4,964,928.66 0.00 3,741,528.10
3 Do Something (5-7) 5,461,421.53 0.00 3,092,171.98
4 Do major works 8 0.00 5,072,509.24 2,366,363.00
5 Do nothing 9 54 0.00 0.00 0.00
6 Do Minimum (10-13) 6,619,904.88 0.00 2,224,838.13
7 Do Something (14-17) 7,281,895.37 0.00 1,671,553.82
8 Do major works 18 0.00 5,072,509.24 912,335.37
9 Do Minimum (19-20) 3,309,952.44 0.00 516,603.51
Grand discounted total cost for the ten roads over 20 Years = 184,062,629.07
Annex C: Paved Road Condition Survey Form 1: Road side, Side drains & Shoulders
Annex D: Paved Road Condition Survey Form 2: Carriageways

Annex E: Alemgena Road Maintenance Districts Sections
Mukatiri Section
Segment Station Station Length Surface
I/No Road No No. Segment Name start End km type
1 A3-1 804/1 Addis-Chancho 9+000 37+000 28 AC
2 A3-1 804/2 Chancho- Commando 37+000 110+000 73 AC
3 A3-2 804/3 Commando-G/Guracha 110+000 155+000 45 AC
G/Guracha-Abaye
4 A3-2 804/4 wonze 155+000 206+000 51 AC
5 A3-3 804/5 Abaye wonz-Dejen 206+000 227+000 21 AC
6 A3a 804/6 Commando-Fitche 0+000 7+000 7 CM
7 C31 804/7 Mukaturi-Lemi 0+000 50+000 50 NG
8 C31 804/8 Lemi-Alemketema 50+000 105+000 55 NG
9 D31-1 804/9 Alemketema-Dogollo 105+000 180+000 75 NG
10 D31-2 804/10 Dgollo-Beto wonz 180+000 215+000 38 NG
under
11 E31 804/11 Chancho-Derba 0+000 23+000 23 construction
12 E35 804/12 Chagel-Debrelibanos 0+000 5+000 5 CM
Note that: - AC=Asphalt concrete
CM=Cold Mix
NG=Natural ground
Ambo Section
Segment Station Station Length Surface
I/No. Road No. No. Segment Name start End km type
1 A4-1 805/1 Addis - Holeta 10+000 50+000 40 AC
2 A4-2 805/2 Holeta - Ginchi 50+000 98+000 48 AC
3 A4-2 805/3 Ginchi - Ambo 98+000 135+000 37 AC
4 A4-3 805/4 Ambo - Gedo 135+000 200+000 65 AC
5 C41 805/5 Holeta - Muger 0+000 57+000 57 AC
6 E43 805/6 Ginchi - Busa - Tulubolo 0+000 48+000 48 NG
7 B41 805/7 Ambo - Wolliso 0+000 63+000 63 NG
8 805/8 Addis - Tatek 0+000 14+000 14 CM
Wolliso Section
Segment Station Length
I/No. Road No. Segment Name Station start Surface type
No. End km
1 A5-1 806/1 Addis - Tulubollo 14+000 91+000 77 AC
2 A5-1 806/2 Tulubollo- Woliso 91+000 126+000 35 AC
3 A5-2 806/3 Woliso- Wlokite 126+000 169+000 43 AC
4 A5-3 806/4 Wolkite - Gibe wonze 169+000 199+000 30 AC
5 E51 806/5 Tulubollo- Robgebeya 0+000 62+000 62 NG
6 E51 806/6 Robgebeya - Kela 62+000 82+000 20 NG
7 New 806/7 Kegne - Zemute- Beke 0+000 18+000 18 NG
8 C53 806/8 Tolay Junction- Tolay 0+000 64+000 64 NG
9 New 806/9 Holeta- Sebeta 0+000 29+000 29 NG
Note that: - AC=Asphalt concrete, CM=Cold Mix and NG=Natural ground
Huruta Section
Station Length Surface
I/No Road No Segment No Segment Name Station start
End km type
1 A9 807/1 Nazrete- Melkasa 0+000 17+000 17 AC

2 A9 807/2 Melkasa-Eteya 17+000 50+000 33 AC
3 A9 807/3 Eiteya-Assela 50+000 78+000 28 AC
4 A9a 807/4 Melkasa-Sodere 0+000 7+000 7 MC
5 B92-1 807/5 Eiteya-Dicsis-Robe 0+000 76+000 76 NG
6 C92-1 807/6 Robe-Seru 0+000 74+000 74 NG
7 C92-2 807/7 Seru-Shekhussein 74+000 139+000 65 NG
8 E91 807/8 Nuraera Junction-Methara 0+000 89+000 89 NG
9 New 807/9 Nuraera bole-Awragodana 0+000 24 NG
24+000
10 B91-1 807/10 Dera-Sire 0+000 23+000 23 CG
11 B91-2 807/11 Sire-Chole 23+000 95+000 72 CG
12 C91-1 807/12 Chole-Barsalia 95+000 135+000 40 NG
13 C91-2 807/13 Magena-Mechara 0+000 120+000 120 CG
CG=Crushed Aggregate
NG=Natural ground
Robit Section
Road Segment Station Length Surface
I/ No No No Segment Name Station start End km type
1 A2-2 808/1 Gudoberet - Debresina 163+000 193+000 30 Ac
2 A2-3 808/2 Debresina - Robit 193+000 225+000 32 Ac
3 A2-3 808/3 Robit - Ataye 225+000 273+000 48 Ac
4 D22 808/4 Robit - Awash 0+000 44+000 44 NG
5 D21 808/5 Taremaber-Meleya 0+000 59+000 59 NG
6 D21 808/6 Meleya - Mehalmeda 59+000 99+000 40 NG
7 D21a 808/7 Meleya - Molale 0+000 14+000 14 NG
8 E24 808/8 Taremaber-Sladengaye 0+000 21+000 21 NG
Debrebirhan Section
1 A2-1 809/1 Addis-Aleltu 18+000 58+000 40 AC
2 A2-1 809/2 Aleltu-Senbo 58+000 93+000 35 AC
3 A2-1 809/3 Sembo-Debrebirhan 93+000 130+000 37 AC
4 A2-2 809/4 Debrebirhan-Gudoberet 130+000 163+000 33 AC
5 E23 809/5 Debrebirhan-Ankober 0+000 40+000 40 NG
6 C21 809/6 Debrebirhan-Jihur 0+000 86+000 86 NG

7 E21 809/7 Aleltu-Etesa 0+000 12+000 12 NG
8 E22 809/8 Sembo-Kesem wonz 0+000 85+000 60/25 NG/TBST
9 E23a 809/9 Miak junction - Mitak 0+000 13+000 13 NG
Modjo Section

1 A1-1 801/1 Addis-Modjo 24+000 79+000 55 AC
2 A1-2 801/2 Modjo-Nazrete 79+000 98+000 19 AC
3 A1-3 801/3 Nazrete-Mathara 98+000 182+000 84 AC
4 A1-4 801/4 Methara-Awash 182+000 228+000 46 AC
5 A7-1 801/5 Modjo-Zewaye 79+000 166+000 87 AC
6 E11 801/6 Modjo-Ejere-Arerti 0+000 60+000 60 TBST
7 E11 801/7 Arerti-Kesem wonz 60+000 85+000 25 TBST
8 E11a 801/8 Balchi Junction-Aranbuti 0+000 23+000 23 NG
9 E72 801/9 Meki-Kella 0+000 60+000 60 NG
TBST=Triple Bituminous Surface Treatment
NG=Natural Ground
Butajera Section
I/ No. No. No. Segment Name Station start End km type
1 B51-1 802/1 Alemgena-Lemen 0+000 42+000 41 DBST

2 B51-1 802/2 Lemen-Butajera 42+000 116+000 74 DBST
3 B51-2 802/3 Butajera-Wolbareg 116+000 170+000 54 DBST
4 B51-2 802/4 Wolbareg-Hossana 170+000 216+000 DBST
5 B51-3 802/5 Hossana-Areka 216+000 285+000 69 DBST
6 C52-2 802/6 Butajera-Zewaye 0+000 51+000 51 DBST
7 E54 802/7 Tere-Amawote 0+000 19+000 19 NG
8 E55 802/8 Tiya-Amowete 0+000 12+000 12 NG
9 New 802/9 Tiya Gereno-Amowete 0+000 18+000 18 NG
10 New 802/10 Bui Aymelel-Robgebeya 0+000 36+000 36 NG
11 New 802/11 Bui-Midrekebd-Dugda 0+000 41+000 41 NG
Note that: - DBST= Double Bituminous Surface Treatment
CM=Cold Mix
NG=Natural ground
Emdiber Section

1 C51 803/1 Wolkite-Mazoria 0+000 56+000 56 NG

2 C51 803/2 Mazoria-Hossana 56+000 125+000 69 NG
3 E56 803/3 Mazoria-Bojobar 0+000 20+000 20 NG
4 E52 803/4 Atate Junction-Kose 0+000 46+000 46 NG
5 E52-1 803/5 Kose-Gilgel gibeII 46+000 81+000 35 CM
6 E59 803/6 Gunchire Junction-Gunchire 0+000 7+000 7 NG
7 E53 803/7 Gubre Junction-Bojobar 0+000 61+000 61 DBST
8 Bojobar-Butajira 0+000 21+000 21 DBST
Annex F: Sample of Bill of Quantity and Condition Survey

2004 EFY Bill of Quantity
Project Name Butajira-Wolbarge (Butajira Section) Length 54km Road type Asphalt
Act.
Amount (ETB)
Code Description Unit Unit rate Quantity
309636.6
121 Culvert Cleaning m3 170.13 1820
111,384.00
122 Ditch Cleaning by manual Lm 30.6 3640
825,168.96
213 Asphalt patching(SST) m3 158.4 5209.4
Cracking sailing
113,147.58
215 (Individual cracks) Lm 475.41 238
Pothole
337,520.59
216 Reinstatement(DBST) m2 730.21 462.224
655,968.26
510 over haul km-m3 5.55 118192.48
2,352,825.99
Sub-Total
352,923.90
VAT (15%)
2,705,749.89
Total
50,106.48
Cost per km
Project Name Wolbarge -Hossana (Butajira Section) Length 46km Road type Asphalt
Amount
Act. Code Description Unit Unit rate Quantity (ETB)
121 Culvert Cleaning m3 170.13 84 14,290.92

Ditch Cleaning by
122 manual Lm 30.6 1680 51,408.00
213 Asphalt patching(SST) m3 158.4 12563.6 1,990,074.24

Cracking Sailing
215 (Individual cracks) Lm 475.41 42 19,967.22
Pothole
216 Reinstatement(DBST) m2 730.21 130.718 95,451.59
pothole Reinstatement
219 (base failure) m3 634.34 1437.744 912,018.53
241 Shoulder rehabilitation m3 190.28 3011.4 573,009.19
510 over haul km-m3 5.55 254726.36 1,413,731.30
Sub-Total 5,069,950.99
VAT (15%) 760,492.65
Total 5,830,443.64
Cost Per km 126,748.77

2004 Condition survey
Project: -Butajira Section
Item Road Length Brief Description of Proposed Remedial

. No Project Segment Defects or problems Solution
Name Name Paved Unpaved Status
Carriage way wear, Asphalt patching,
pothole Pothole Reinstatement
Cracking, and Shoulder Crack sealing, and
damaged shoulder rehabilitation
Butajira-
Butajira- Pothole (base failure), Pothole Reinstatement, Good
1 Areka- 54
Wolbareg Carriage wearing and Asphalt Patching and condition
Sodo
Shoulder damaged Shoulder rehabilitation
Pothole (base failure), Pothole Reinstatement,
Carriage way wear and Asphalt Patching and
traffic sign missing traffic sign Installment
Carriage way wear, Asphalt patching,
pothole Pothole Reinstatement
Cracking, and Shoulder Crack sealing, and
Butajira- damaged shoulder rehabilitation
Wolbareg- Pothole (base failure), Pothole Reinstatement, Bad
2 Areka- 46
Hossana carriage wearing and Asphalt Patching and condition
Sodo
Shoulder damaged Shoulder rehabilitation
Pothole (base failure), Pothole Reinstatement,
Carriage way wear and Asphalt Patching and
traffic sign missing traffic sign Installment
Annex G: Vehicle Operating Cost for (2004-2008) EC
Vehicle Type Car L/Rover S/Bus L/Bus S/Truck M/Truck H/Truck T/Trailer
Physical Characteristics
operating weight (kg) 1200 1600 5200 9000 5500 13000 22000 28000
Axels per vehicle (no.) 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 5
Tires per vehicle(no.) 4 4 4 6 4 6 10 18
Utilization
Annual Run (km) 20000 40000 50000 60000 50000 60000 65000 65000
Annual Hours 500 900 1600 1800 1600 1800 2100 2100
Average service life (yrs) 12 12 15 15 12 15 15 15
private use (%) 85 20 15
Passenger Occupancy (no.) 3 3 20 45 2 2 2 2
work relateed trips (%) 15 80 85 100 100 100 100 100
Time value
Passenger working time 2.06 2.06 1.47 1.47 2.26 2.26 2.26 2.26
Passenger non-working time 0.72 0.72 0.52 0.52 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79
Cargo 0.13 0.3 0.36 0.77
Unit Cost (Economic) 2004 E.C
One
Vehicle Type One liter One Working One Working
One New One Tyre Liter
lubricant Hour in Work Hour for crew
Vehicle (Birr) (Birr) Fuel
(Birr) Shop (Birr) (Birr)
(Birr)
Car Toyota Corolla (sedan) 1,124,000 1411 19.82 85.88 21.15 16.50
Large car Toyota Land cruiser 4,329,000 5180 17.60 73.28 22.43 22.50
Small bus Iveco* 1,400,000 7632 17.60 73.28 19.65 20.57
Large bus Iveco** 2,605,000 12351 17.60 73.28 15.05 37.09
Pick-up Toyota (D/CAB) 1,587,000 2647 19.82 85.88 21.57 21.75
Small truck Mitsubishi (70 quintals) 1,250,000 6956 17.60 73.28 21.28 26.44
Medium
Truck Iveco (246 quintals) *** 2,700,000 12351 17.60 73.28 28.48 31.67
Scania (400 quintals)
Large Truck **** 2,872,355 12351 17.60 73.28 30.57 37.60
Truck and M. Truck + trailer (170 +
Trailer 235 q) 4,300,000 12351 17.60 73.28 30.98 37.60
Price (2012/13) - Birr
One
Vehicle Type One Liter One Working One Working
One New One Tyre Liter
Lubricant Hour in Work Hour for
Vehicle (Birr) (Birr) Fuel
(Birr) Shop (Birr) Crew (Birr)
(Birr)
Car Toyota Corolla (sedan)* 1,098,000 1910 18.78 84.77 31.10 16.67
Large car Toyota Landcruiser* 3,939,000 5377 16.91 84.65 30.69 34.00
Small bus Iveco** 1,360,000 9129 16.91 84.65 30.23 21.57
Large bus Iveco 2,650,000 13795 16.91 84.65 25.35 48.04
Small truck Mitsubishi (70 quintas) 1,310,000 8737 16.91 84.65 26.86 29.69
Medium
Truck Iveco (246 quintas) 3,100,000 13795 16.91 84.65 39.68 34.28
Large Truck Scania (400 quintas) 3,324,273 13795 16.91 84.65 34.07 37.93
Truck and M. Truck + trailer (170 +
Trailer 235 q) 4,746,000 13795 16.91 84.65 35.45 37.93

One
Vehicle Type One Liter One Liter One Working Working
One New One Tyre
Fuel Lubricant Hour in Work Hour for
Vehicle (Birr) (Birr)
(Birr) (Birr) Shop (Birr) Crew
(Birr)
Large car Toyota Landcruiser* 3,939,000 5377 16.91 84.65 30.69 34.00
Small bus Iveco** 1,360,000 9129 16.91 84.65 30.23 21.57
Large bus Iveco 2,650,000 13795 16.91 84.65 25.35 48.04
Medium Truck Iveco (246 quintas) 3,100,000 13795 16.91 84.65 39.68 34.28
M. Truck + trailer (170 +
Truck and Trailer 235 q) 4,746,000 13795 16.91 84.65 35.45 37.93
Unit Cost (Economic) 2007 EC

One Litre One Working One
Vehicle Type One Litre Lubricant Hour in Work Working
One New One Tyre Shop (Birr)
Fuel (Birr) Hour for
Vehicle (Birr) (Birr)
(Birr) Crew
(Birr)
Large car Mitsubishi (Pajaro)* 3,673,000 4250 17.75 73.21 42.63 37.50
Small bus Mitsubishi** 1,650,000 8000 17.75 73.21 41.27 62.86
Large bus Iveco 2,650,000 14600 17.75 73.21 48.35 59.22
Medium Truck Iveco (246 quintas) 3,150,000 14600 17.75 73.21 39.68 43.00
M. Truck + trailer (170 +
Truck and Trailer 235 q) 4,300,000 14600 17.75 73.21 47.51 89.00
Unit Cost (Economic Cost)2008EC
One
Vehicle Type One New One One Liter One Liter One Working
Fuel Working
Vehicle Tyre Fuel Lubricant Hour in Work
Type Hour for
(Birr) (Birr) (Birr) (Birr) Shop (Birr)
Crew (Birr)
Car Toyota Corolla (sedan)* 1,378,000 2100 14.16 petrol 78.00 40.70 33.33
Large car Mitsubishi (Pajero)* 4,594,000 4500 17.34 diesel 73.21 44.68 40.00
Small bus Mitsubishi** 1,650,000 8450 17.34 diesel 73.21 41.44 65.00
Large bus Iveco 2,650,000 15200 17.34 diesel 73.21 53.96 62.21
Pick-up Toyota (D/CAB) 2,278,000 3200 14.16 petrol 78.00 31.39 43.00
Small truck Mitsubishi (70 quintals) 1,850,000 7600 17.34 diesel 73.21 40.01 40.28
Medium Truck Iveco (246 quintals) 3,150,000 14800 17.34 diesel 73.21 45.80 43.67
Large Truck Scania (400 quintals) 3,581,727 15000 17.34 diesel 73.21 45.80 84.19
Truck and
Trailer M. Truck + trailer (170 + 235 q) 4,300,000 15700 17.34 diesel 73.21 50.97 88.75
Annex H: Average costs for five years (2004-2008) EFY
Average cost for 2004-2008EC
Project Km average Total cost for 5yrs

1 Butajira-Wolbareg 54 2,705,749.84
2 Wolbareg-Hosana 46 5,830,443.64
3 Alemgena-Lemon 42 9,897,612.82
4 Lemon-Butajira 74 6,431,398.05
5 Commando-Fiche 7 200,000.00
6 Ambo-Gedo 64 10,953,097.39
7 Robe-Etaye 48 11,432,298.00
8 Gudober-D/Sina 30 878,444.00
9 Kosse-G/GibeNo.2 35 419,163.25
10 Butajira-Zeway 54 5,026,165.46
Total cost 53,774,372.45
Annex I: Discounted costs for 20years
(n+1)n The Discounted cost for 20yeras
1.10 2,459,772.6 5,300,403.3 8,997,829.8 5,846,725.5 181,818.2 9,957,361.3 10,392,998.2 798,585.5
1.21 2,236,156.9 4,818,548.5 8,179,845.3 5,315,205.0 165,289.3 9,052,146.6 9,448,180.2 725,986.8
1.33 2,032,869.9 4,380,498.6 7,436,223.0 4,832,004.5 150,263.0 8,229,224.2 8,589,254.7 659,988.0
1.46 1,848,063.5 3,982,271.5 6,760,202.7 4,392,731.4 136,602.7 7,481,112.9 7,808,413.4 599,989.1
1.61 1,680,057.8 3,620,246.8 6,145,638.8 3,993,392.2 124,184.3 6,801,011.7 7,098,557.6 545,444.6
1.77 1,527,325.2 3,291,133.4 5,586,944.4 3,630,356.5 112,894.8 6,182,737.9 6,453,234.2 495,858.7
1.95 1,388,477.5 2,991,939.5 5,079,040.4 3,300,324.1 102,631.6 5,620,670.8 5,866,576.5 450,780.7
2.14 1,262,252.3 2,719,945.0 4,617,309.4 3,000,294.7 93,301.5 5,109,700.8 5,333,251.4 409,800.6
2.36 1,147,502.1 2,472,677.3 4,197,554.0 2,727,540.6 84,819.5 4,645,182.5 4,848,410.4 372,546.0
2.59 1,043,183.7 2,247,888.4 3,815,958.2 2,479,582.4 77,108.7 4,222,893.2 4,407,645.8 338,678.2
2.85 948,348.8 2,043,534.9 3,469,052.9 2,254,165.8 70,098.8 3,838,993.8 4,006,950.7 307,889.3
3.14 862,135.3 1,857,759.0 3,153,684.5 2,049,241.6 63,726.2 3,489,994.4 3,642,682.5 279,899.3
3.45 783,759.3 1,688,871.8 2,866,985.9 1,862,946.9 57,932.9 3,172,722.2 3,311,529.5 254,453.9
3.80 712,508.5 1,535,338.0 2,606,350.8 1,693,588.1 52,666.3 2,884,292.9 3,010,481.4 231,321.8
4.18 647,735.0 1,395,761.9 2,369,409.8 1,539,625.6 47,878.4 2,622,084.4 2,736,801.2 210,292.5
4.59 588,850.0 1,268,874.4 2,154,008.9 1,399,659.6 43,525.8 2,383,713.1 2,488,001.1 191,175.0
5.05 535,318.2 1,153,522.2 1,958,189.9 1,272,417.8 39,568.9 2,167,011.9 2,261,819.2 173,795.5
5.56 486,652.9 1,048,656.5 1,780,172.7 1,156,743.5 35,971.8 1,970,010.8 2,056,199.3 157,995.9
6.12 442,411.7 953,324.1 1,618,338.8 1,051,585.0 32,701.6 1,790,918.9 1,869,272.1 143,632.6
6.73 402,192.5 866,658.3 1,471,217.1 955,986.3 29,728.7 1,628,108.1 1,699,338.3 130,575.1
23,035,573.7 49,637,853.4 84,263,957.4 54,754,117.1 1,702,712.7 93,249,892.6 97,329,597.5 7,478,689.0

Total discounted cost ERA Road Maintenance
No. Project Km Total Discounted cost

1 Butajira-Wolbareg 54 23,035,573.67
2 Wolbareg-Hosana 46 49,637,853.44
3 Alemgena-Lemon 42 84,263,957.42
4 Lemon-Butajira 74 54,754,117.11
5 Commando-Fiche 7 1,702,712.74
6 Ambo-Gedo 64 93,249,892.56
7 Robe-Etaye 48 97,329,597.49
8 Gudober-D/Sina 30 7,478,688.97
9 Kosse-G/GibeNo.2 35 3,568,573.04
10 Butajira-Zeway 54 42,790,579.91
Total cost 457,811,546.34
Annex J: Altitude
No. Place Name Altitude (mts)
1 Addis Ababa 2,371
2 Debrezeit 2,006
3 Wonji 1,584
4 Ghion/Woliso 2,049
5 Ziway 1,643
6 Mojo 1,803
7 Butajira 2,123
8 Fiche 2,853
9 Holeta/Genet 2,381
10 Sebeta 2,405
11 Gebregurach 2,547
12 Guder/Ambo 1,947
13 Awash 876
14 Tulubolo 2,193
15 Addis Alem 2,178
16 Gedo 2,432
17 Debre Berhan 2,840
Annex J: HDM4 Annual Pavement Deterioration Summary (Combined)

Study Name: Alemgena butajira
Alternative: with
Section: Alemgena-Lemon Run Date: 20-09-2017
Surface: Bituminous Road Class: Secondary or Main
Length: 42.00km Width: 7.00m
Average Annual Values

ESAL IRI IRI All Str All Str Edge Rut No. of Gravel
MT millions bef. Avg. Cracks Ravelling Break Depth Pot- Thick.
Year AADT /ELANE m/km m/km % % sq.m mm holes mm
2017 650 0.10 7.19 7.10 32.96 39.95 100.08 15.30 5 2.88
2018 688 0.11 7.19 7.10 32.96 39.95 100.08 15.30 5 2.88
2019 727 0.11 7.19 7.10 16.48 19.98 50.04 7.65 3 2.88
2020 769 0.12 9.55 9.28 0.00 0.00 0.17 10.00 0 2.00
2021 828 0.13 9.71 9.63 0.00 0.00 0.40 10.59 0 2.00
2022 891 0.13 9.88 9.80 0.00 0.00 0.69 11.19 0 2.00
2023 960 0.14 10.06 9.97 0.00 0.00 1.03 11.79 0 2.00
2024 1,034 0.15 10.24 10.15 0.00 0.00 1.43 12.39 0 2.00
2025 1,114 0.16 10.43 10.34 0.00 0.00 1.90 13.00 0 2.00
2026 1,201 0.17 10.64 10.54 0.89 0.00 2.45 13.62 0 2.00
2027 1,278 0.18 10.86 10.75 3.42 0.00 3.10 14.24 0 2.00
2028 1,361 0.19 11.11 10.98 8.64 0.00 3.84 14.86 0 2.00
2029 1,449 0.20 11.39 11.25 17.58 0.92 4.69 15.48 0 1.99
2030 1,542 0.21 11.72 11.55 31.27 4.29 5.69 16.12 0 1.98
2031 1,642 0.23 12.09 11.91 50.66 12.86 6.84 16.76 0 1.96
2032 1,749 0.24 12.49 12.29 69.05 30.83 8.20 17.41 1 1.93
2033 1,833 0.25 12.86 12.67 82.06 17.79 9.73 18.07 4 1.90
2034 1,922 0.26 13.23 13.05 90.68 9.15 11.46 18.74 7 1.90
2035 2,015 0.27 13.61 13.42 95.88 3.91 13.42 19.42 12 1.90
2036 2,113 0.28 14.03 13.82 98.59 1.17 15.64 20.10 17 1.90
Alternative: Without
Section: Alemgena-Lemon
Surface Class: Bituminous
Length: 42.00km
No.
ESAL IRI IRI All Str. All Str. Edge Rut Gravel
of
Year MT millions bef. Avg. Cracks Ravelling Break Depth Pot- Thick.
AADT /ELANE m/km m/km % % sq.m mm holes mm
2017 650 0.10 7.19 7.10 32.96 39.95 100.08 15.30 5 2.88
2018 688 0.11 7.50 7.34 63.40 35.12 100.21 15.61 38 2.66
2019 727 0.11 7.82 7.66 88.12 10.31 100.36 15.93 98 2.50
2020 769 0.12 8.13 7.98 98.31 0.00 100.54 16.27 180 2.50
2021 828 0.13 8.47 8.30 98.16 0.00 100.75 16.61 280 2.50
2022 891 0.13 8.91 8.69 97.99 0.00 101.00 16.96 394 2.50
2023 960 0.14 9.47 9.19 97.81 0.00 101.30 17.32 521 2.50
2024 1,034 0.15 10.17 9.82 97.60 0.00 101.67 17.68 666 2.50
2025 1,114 0.16 11.06 10.61 97.35 0.00 102.13 18.06 831 2.50
2026 1,201 0.17 12.18 11.62 97.07 0.00 102.70 18.45 1,021 2.50
2027 1,278 0.18 13.58 12.88 96.76 0.00 103.40 18.85 1,236 2.50
2028 1,361 0.19 15.35 14.47 96.39 0.00 104.29 19.26 1,483 2.50
2029 1,449 0.20 16.00 15.67 95.97 0.00 105.41 19.70 1,768 2.50
2030 1,542 0.21 16.00 16.00 95.48 0.00 106.79 20.15 2,096 2.50
2031 1,642 0.23 16.00 16.00 94.91 0.00 108.39 20.61 2,479 2.50
2032 1,749 0.24 16.00 16.00 94.25 0.00 110.20 21.08 2,926 2.50
2033 1,833 0.25 16.00 16.00 93.48 0.00 112.19 21.57 3,445 2.50
2034 1,922 0.26 16.00 16.00 92.58 0.00 114.38 22.06 4,050 2.50
2035 2,015 0.27 16.00 16.00 91.53 0.00 116.78 22.55 4,759 2.50
2036 2,113 0.28 16.00 16.00 90.30 0.00 119.43 23.06 5,594 2.50
IRI m/km Alemgena-Lemon Crack, Ravelling Alemgena-Lemon

16.00 120.00
14.00 100.00
12.00 80.00
10.00 60.00
8.00 40.00
6.00 20.00
4.00 0.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2.00
0.00 % %
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Year
Year
Road Class: Secondary or Main

Alternative: with
Section: Lemon-Butajira Width: 7.00m
Length: 74.00km

ESAL IRI IRI All Str. All Str. Edge Rut No. of Gravel
2017 650 0.10 7.29 7.15 45.72 38.68 100.08 15.33 5 2.47
2018 688 0.11 7.29 7.15 45.72 38.68 100.08 15.33 5 2.47
2019 727 0.11 7.29 7.15 22.86 19.34 50.04 7.67 3 2.47
2020 769 0.12 9.55 9.28 0.00 0.00 0.17 10.08 0 2.00
2021 828 0.13 9.72 9.64 0.00 0.00 0.41 10.78 0 2.00
2022 891 0.13 9.90 9.81 0.00 0.00 0.69 11.49 0 2.00
2023 960 0.14 10.09 9.99 0.00 0.00 1.03 12.22 0 2.00
2024 1,034 0.15 10.29 10.19 1.92 0.00 1.43 12.96 0 2.00
2025 1,114 0.16 10.52 10.40 5.15 0.00 1.90 13.72 0 2.00
2026 1,201 0.17 10.76 10.64 10.13 0.00 2.46 14.49 0 1.99
2027 1,278 0.18 11.03 10.89 16.97 0.00 3.11 15.28 0 1.99
2028 1,361 0.19 11.32 11.17 25.76 0.00 3.86 16.09 0 1.98
2029 1,449 0.20 11.63 11.48 36.58 0.00 4.73 16.92 0 1.96
2030 1,542 0.21 11.98 11.81 49.49 0.00 5.74 17.77 2 1.95
2031 1,642 0.23 12.34 12.16 62.28 0.00 6.92 18.64 5 1.93
2032 1,749 0.24 12.73 12.54 73.03 0.00 8.30 19.55 9 1.91
2033 1,833 0.25 13.18 12.95 81.81 0.00 9.87 20.48 16 1.90
2034 1,922 0.26 13.79 13.48 88.71 0.00 11.64 21.43 26 1.90
2035 2,015 0.27 14.82 14.30 93.81 0.00 13.67 22.41 39 1.90
2036 2,113 0.28 16.00 15.41 97.25 0.00 16.03 23.42 57 1.90
Alternative: without
Section: Lemon-Butajira Road Class: Secondary or Main
Surface Class: Bituminous Width: 7.00m
Length: 74.00km
ESAL IRI IRI All Str. Rave- Edge Rut No. of Gravel
Year MT millions bef. Avg. Cracks lling Break Depth Pot- Thick.
2017 650 0.10 7.29 7.15 45.72 38.68 100.08 15.33 5 2.47
2018 688 0.11 7.76 7.53 98.50 0.00 100.21 15.67 47 2.32
2019 727 0.11 7.98 7.87 98.38 0.00 100.37 16.02 130 2.29
2020 769 0.12 8.27 8.13 98.25 0.00 100.55 16.37 221 2.29
2021 828 0.13 8.65 8.46 98.10 0.00 100.76 16.73 322 2.29
2022 891 0.13 9.13 8.89 97.93 0.00 101.01 17.09 437 2.29
2023 960 0.14 9.73 9.43 97.74 0.00 101.32 17.46 565 2.29
2024 1,034 0.15 10.48 10.10 97.53 0.00 101.70 17.82 711 2.29
2025 1,114 0.16 11.41 10.94 97.29 0.00 102.17 18.19 877 2.29
2026 1,201 0.17 12.58 11.99 97.01 0.00 102.76 18.56 1,068 2.30
2027 1,278 0.18 14.03 13.30 96.69 0.00 103.48 18.93 1,284 2.30
2028 1,361 0.19 15.85 14.94 96.32 0.00 104.40 19.31 1,532 2.30
2029 1,449 0.20 16.00 15.92 95.90 0.00 105.56 19.69 1,816 2.30
2030 1,542 0.21 16.00 16.00 95.41 0.00 106.96 20.07 2,145 2.30
2031 1,642 0.23 16.00 16.00 94.84 0.00 108.55 20.45 2,527 2.30
2032 1,749 0.24 16.00 16.00 94.18 0.00 110.37 20.83 2,973 2.30
2033 1,833 0.25 16.00 16.00 93.41 0.00 112.36 21.22 3,489 2.30
2034 1,922 0.26 16.00 16.00 92.52 0.00 114.54 21.60 4,091 2.30
2035 2,015 0.27 16.00 16.00 91.48 0.00 116.95 21.99 4,794 2.30
2036 2,113 0.28 16.00 16.00 90.26 0.00 119.59 22.38 5,620 2.30
HDM-4 Version 1.1
IRI m/km Lemon-Butajira

18.00 Crack, Ravelling Lemon-Butajira
120.00
16.00
14.00 100.00
12.00 80.00
10.00 60.00
8.00 40.00
6.00
20.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
0.00
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 Cracks % Ravelling %
Year Year
Study Name: Ambo-Gedo

Alternative: with
Run Date: 20-09-2017
Section: Ambo-Gedo
Surface Class: Bituminous Width: 7.00m
Length: 64.00km Average Annual Values
MT millions bef. Avg. Break Depth Pot- Thick.
Ravelling
Year AADT /ELANE m/km m/km Cracks % sq.m mm holes mm
%
2017 892 0.21 6.32 6.16 45.72 52.84 100.15 15.35 5 2.44
2018 939 0.22 6.32 6.16 45.72 52.84 100.15 15.35 5 2.44
2019 988 0.23 6.32 6.16 22.86 26.42 50.08 7.68 3 2.44
2020 1,040 0.24 8.41 8.20 0.00 0.00 0.28 5.66 0 3.00
2021 1,104 0.25 8.51 8.46 0.00 0.00 0.66 6.06 0 3.00
2022 1,171 0.26 8.62 8.57 0.00 0.00 1.10 6.46 0 3.00
2023 1,242 0.28 8.73 8.68 0.00 0.00 1.60 6.87 0 3.00
2024 1,318 0.29 8.85 8.79 0.00 0.00 2.17 7.28 0 3.00
2025 1,399 0.31 8.97 8.91 0.00 0.00 2.82 7.69 0 3.00
2026 1,485 0.33 9.09 9.03 0.00 0.00 3.57 8.11 0 3.00
2027 1,562 0.34 9.23 9.16 1.82 0.00 4.40 8.53 0 3.00
2028 1,644 0.36 9.38 9.30 5.50 0.00 5.33 8.95 0 3.00
2029 1,730 0.37 9.55 9.47 12.36 2.42 6.37 9.37 0 2.99
2030 1,820 0.39 9.76 9.66 23.43 11.13 7.55 9.79 0 2.98
2031 1,915 0.41 10.01 9.89 39.76 31.50 8.88 10.22 0 2.96
2032 2,016 0.43 10.30 10.16 60.04 39.81 10.38 10.66 1 2.92
2033 2,100 0.45 10.56 10.43 75.77 24.05 12.05 11.10 4 2.89
2034 2,187 0.46 10.81 10.69 86.60 13.19 13.91 11.55 7 2.88
2035 2,278 0.48 11.06 10.93 93.49 6.27 15.97 12.01 11 2.88
2036 2,373 0.50 11.34 11.20 97.40 2.31 18.26 12.47 17 2.88
Section: Ambo-Gedo Road Class: Primary or Trunk

Width: 7.00m
Length: 64.00km Average Annual Values
2017 892 0.21 6.32 6.16 45.72 52.84 100.15 15.35 5 2.44
2018 939 0.22 6.84 6.58 98.50 0.00 100.38 15.72 49 2.21
2019 988 0.23 7.12 6.98 98.38 0.00 100.64 16.10 131 2.15
2020 1,040 0.24 7.48 7.30 98.24 0.00 100.94 16.49 220 2.15
2021 1,104 0.25 7.93 7.71 98.10 0.00 101.29 16.87 320 2.15
2022 1,171 0.26 8.49 8.21 97.93 0.00 101.70 17.26 431 2.15
2023 1,242 0.28 9.16 8.82 97.75 0.00 102.18 17.66 555 2.15
2024 1,318 0.29 9.97 9.56 97.54 0.00 102.76 18.05 693 2.15
2025 1,399 0.31 10.96 10.46 97.31 0.00 103.46 18.45 849 2.15
2026 1,485 0.33 12.16 11.56 97.05 0.00 104.32 18.84 1,024 2.15
2027 1,562 0.34 13.62 12.89 96.75 0.00 105.37 19.24 1,222 2.15
2028 1,644 0.36 15.39 14.50 96.41 0.00 106.66 19.64 1,445 2.15
2029 1,730 0.37 16.00 15.69 96.03 0.00 108.26 20.05 1,697 2.15
2030 1,820 0.39 16.00 16.00 95.59 0.00 110.19 20.45 1,984 2.15
2031 1,915 0.41 16.00 16.00 95.09 0.00 112.36 20.86 2,312 2.15
2032 2,016 0.43 16.00 16.00 94.52 0.00 114.77 21.27 2,687 2.15
2033 2,100 0.45 16.00 16.00 93.87 0.00 117.38 21.68 3,115 2.15
2034 2,187 0.46 16.00 16.00 93.13 0.00 120.21 22.10 3,605 2.16
2035 2,278 0.48 16.00 16.00 92.28 0.00 123.28 22.51 4,168 2.16
2036 2,373 0.50 16.00 16.00 91.31 0.00 126.62 22.92 4,817 2.16
HDM-4 Version 1.1
IRI m/km Ambo-Gedo IRI m/km Ambo-Gedo

12.00 120.00
100.00
10.00
80.00
8.00
60.00
6.00 40.00
4.00 20.00
0.00
2.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
0.00
Cracks % Ravelling %
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Year Year
Alternative: with Study Name: Butajira-Hosana

Section: Butajira-Wolbareg Run Date: 20-09-2017
Surface Class: Bituminous Road Class: Primary or Trunk

2017 400 0.09 3.06 3.03 0.50 2.63 0.03 2.32 0 2.54
2018 424 0.09 3.06 3.03 0.50 2.63 0.03 2.32 0 2.54
2019 450 0.10 3.06 3.03 0.25 1.32 0.02 1.16 0 2.54
2020 476 0.10 3.23 3.12 0.00 0.00 0.05 3.10 0 3.50
2021 511 0.11 3.28 3.26 0.00 0.00 0.11 3.33 0 3.50
2022 548 0.12 3.32 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.18 3.56 0 3.50
2023 588 0.12 3.36 3.34 0.00 0.00 0.27 3.79 0 3.50
2024 631 0.13 3.41 3.39 0.00 0.00 0.36 4.02 0 3.50
2025 676 0.14 3.45 3.43 0.00 0.00 0.46 4.26 0 3.50
2026 726 0.15 3.50 3.48 0.00 0.00 0.59 4.49 0 3.50
2027 785 0.16 3.55 3.53 0.00 0.00 0.73 4.73 0 3.50
2028 848 0.18 3.60 3.58 0.00 0.00 0.90 4.97 0 3.50
2029 918 0.19 3.65 3.63 0.00 0.00 1.10 5.21 0 3.50
2030 992 0.20 3.71 3.68 0.93 0.00 1.33 5.46 0 3.50
2031 1,073 0.22 3.78 3.75 3.49 0.00 1.60 5.70 0 3.50
2032 1,161 0.23 3.87 3.83 8.78 0.50 1.91 5.95 0 3.49
2033 1,229 0.25 3.99 3.93 17.80 2.96 2.27 6.20 0 3.49
2034 1,300 0.26 4.14 4.07 31.61 9.61 2.67 6.45 0 3.48
2035 1,376 0.27 4.33 4.24 51.09 23.30 3.11 6.71 0 3.45
2036 1,456 0.29 4.52 4.43 69.37 30.58 3.61 6.97 1 3.41
Road Class: Primary or Trunk

Section: Butajira-Wolbareg Width: 7.00m
Length: 54.00km
2017 400 0.09 3.06 3.03 0.50 2.63 0.03 2.32 0 2.54
2018 424 0.09 3.15 3.11 4.05 5.22 0.07 2.64 0 2.54
2019 450 0.10 3.28 3.22 13.60 8.78 0.12 2.97 0 2.53
2020 476 0.10 3.47 3.38 31.98 13.27 0.17 3.29 0 2.51
2021 511 0.11 3.73 3.60 60.33 18.86 0.23 3.62 0 2.46
2022 548 0.12 3.96 3.84 81.92 18.08 0.30 3.97 0 2.38
2023 588 0.12 4.13 4.04 93.83 6.16 0.38 4.32 0 2.35
2024 631 0.13 4.25 4.19 98.89 1.11 0.48 4.68 0 2.35
2025 676 0.14 4.36 4.31 99.99 0.00 0.59 5.04 0 2.35
2026 726 0.15 4.49 4.42 99.92 0.00 0.71 5.41 48 2.35
2027 785 0.16 4.66 4.57 99.84 0.00 0.86 5.77 100 2.35
2028 848 0.18 4.87 4.77 99.76 0.00 1.03 6.15 158 2.35
2029 918 0.19 5.14 5.01 99.67 0.00 1.23 6.52 222 2.35
2030 992 0.20 5.45 5.29 99.56 0.00 1.47 6.90 293 2.35
2031 1,073 0.22 5.82 5.63 99.44 0.00 1.75 7.28 372 2.35
2032 1,161 0.23 6.26 6.04 99.31 0.00 2.08 7.66 459 2.35
2033 1,229 0.25 6.79 6.53 99.17 0.00 2.47 8.05 556 2.35
2034 1,300 0.26 7.40 7.09 99.01 0.00 2.92 8.44 662 2.35
2035 1,376 0.27 8.12 7.76 98.84 0.00 3.45 8.83 779 2.35
2036 1,456 0.29 8.98 8.55 98.64 0.00 4.08 9.22 909 2.35
IRI m/km Butajira-Wolbareg Cracks,Ravelling% Butajira-Wolbareg

5.00 80.00
4.50 70.00
4.00 60.00
3.50 50.00
3.00
40.00
2.50
30.00
2.00
20.00
1.50
10.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
0.00
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 % %
Year Year

Alternative: with
Section: Wolbareg-Hosana
Width: 7.00m
Length: 46.00km
2017 400 0.09 7.29 7.14 45.72 23.63 100.03 15.32 5 2.50
2018 424 0.09 7.29 7.14 45.72 23.63 100.03 15.32 5 2.50
2019 450 0.10 7.29 7.14 22.86 11.82 50.02 7.66 3 2.50
2020 476 0.10 9.54 9.27 0.00 0.00 0.06 9.77 0 2.00
2021 511 0.11 9.69 9.62 0.00 0.00 0.15 10.35 0 2.00
2022 548 0.12 9.85 9.77 0.00 0.00 0.26 10.94 0 2.00
2023 588 0.12 10.02 9.94 0.00 0.00 0.39 11.53 0 2.00
2024 631 0.13 10.19 10.11 0.00 0.00 0.54 12.13 0 2.00
2025 676 0.14 10.37 10.28 0.00 0.00 0.71 12.73 0 2.00
2026 726 0.15 10.55 10.46 0.00 0.00 0.91 13.34 0 2.00
2027 785 0.16 10.76 10.66 1.88 0.00 1.15 13.95 0 2.00
2028 848 0.18 10.99 10.87 5.63 0.00 1.44 14.56 0 2.00
2029 918 0.19 11.25 11.12 12.59 0.50 1.78 15.18 0 1.99
2030 992 0.20 11.55 11.40 23.78 2.00 2.18 15.81 0 1.98
2031 1,073 0.22 11.90 11.72 40.26 5.77 2.67 16.45 0 1.97
2032 1,161 0.23 12.29 12.09 60.51 13.82 3.26 17.09 1 1.94
2033 1,229 0.25 12.68 12.48 76.12 23.82 3.93 17.75 3 1.91
2034 1,300 0.26 13.05 12.86 86.83 13.10 4.71 18.42 5 1.90
2035 1,376 0.27 13.41 13.23 93.63 6.28 5.61 19.09 8 1.90
2036 1,456 0.29 13.79 13.60 97.48 2.40 6.65 19.78 12 1.90
Section: Wolbareg-Hosana
Width: 7.00m
Length: 46.00km
2017 400 0.09 7.29 7.14 45.72 23.63 100.03 15.32 5 2.50
2018 424 0.09 7.75 7.52 98.50 0.00 100.08 15.66 50 2.41
2019 450 0.10 7.99 7.87 98.35 0.00 100.14 16.00 153 2.38
2020 476 0.10 8.33 8.16 98.19 0.00 100.21 16.35 268 2.38
2021 511 0.11 8.78 8.55 98.00 0.00 100.29 16.71 396 2.38
2022 548 0.12 9.36 9.07 97.79 0.00 100.39 17.06 542 2.38
2023 588 0.12 10.11 9.74 97.55 0.00 100.50 17.42 707 2.38
2024 631 0.13 11.06 10.59 97.28 0.00 100.65 17.78 896 2.39
2025 676 0.14 12.27 11.67 96.97 0.00 100.83 18.14 1,112 2.39
2026 726 0.15 13.80 13.04 96.61 0.00 101.06 18.51 1,362 2.39
2027 785 0.16 15.76 14.78 96.19 0.00 101.35 18.88 1,653 2.39
2028 848 0.18 16.00 15.88 95.70 0.00 101.75 19.25 1,994 2.39
2029 918 0.19 16.00 16.00 95.11 0.00 102.24 19.62 2,397 2.39
2030 992 0.20 16.00 16.00 94.42 0.00 102.83 20.00 2,878 2.39
2031 1,073 0.22 16.00 16.00 93.59 0.00 103.51 20.38 3,454 2.39
2032 1,161 0.23 16.00 16.00 92.58 0.00 104.31 20.76 4,152 2.39
2033 1,229 0.25 16.00 16.00 91.37 0.00 105.20 21.14 4,987 2.39
2034 1,300 0.26 16.00 16.00 89.92 0.00 106.20 21.53 5,995 2.39
2035 1,376 0.27 16.00 16.00 88.47 0.00 107.32 21.91 7,000 2.39
2036 1,456 0.29 16.00 16.00 88.45 0.00 108.58 22.30 7,000 2.39
HDM-4 Version 1.1
IRI m/km Wolbareg-Hossana Crack,Ravelling % Wolbareg-Hossana

16.00 120.00
14.00 100.00
12.00 80.00
10.00
60.00
8.00
40.00
6.00
20.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
0.00
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 % %
Year Year
Alternative: with Study Name: Butajira-Zeway

Run Date: 20-09-2017
Section: Butajira-Zeway
Surface Class: Bituminous Road Class: Tertiary or Local

No.
ESAL IRI IRI All Str. All Str. Edge Rut Gravel
of
2017 722 0.07 6.33 6.16 13.52 14.08 10.09 8.48 0 3.01
2018 778 0.07 6.33 6.16 13.52 14.08 10.09 8.48 0 3.01
2019 838 0.08 6.33 6.16 6.76 7.04 5.05 4.24 0 3.01
2020 903 0.08 6.41 6.21 0.00 0.00 0.21 6.34 0 2.50
2021 984 0.09 6.50 6.46 0.00 0.00 0.46 6.79 0 2.50
2022 1,072 0.10 6.59 6.55 0.00 0.00 0.76 7.23 0 2.50
2023 1,168 0.10 6.69 6.64 0.00 0.00 1.11 7.68 0 2.50
2024 1,272 0.11 6.79 6.74 0.00 0.00 1.54 8.14 0 2.50
2025 1,386 0.12 6.89 6.84 0.00 0.00 2.05 8.60 0 2.50
2026 1,510 0.13 6.99 6.94 0.00 0.00 2.67 9.06 0 2.50
2027 1,618 0.14 7.10 7.05 0.00 0.00 3.38 9.53 0 2.50
2028 1,733 0.15 7.22 7.16 0.50 0.00 4.20 9.99 0 2.50
2029 1,856 0.16 7.35 7.28 2.38 1.83 5.15 10.47 0 2.50
2030 1,988 0.17 7.50 7.42 6.64 9.50 6.26 10.94 0 2.50
2031 2,130 0.18 7.67 7.58 14.30 28.22 7.55 11.42 0 2.49
2032 2,282 0.20 7.88 7.78 26.38 61.84 9.05 11.91 0 2.48
2033 2,411 0.21 8.14 8.01 43.94 55.90 10.75 12.40 1 2.47
2034 2,547 0.22 8.41 8.27 63.82 36.00 12.70 12.90 3 2.43
2035 2,692 0.23 8.67 8.54 78.43 21.34 14.94 13.41 6 2.40
2036 2,844 0.24 8.94 8.81 88.34 11.39 17.50 13.92 11 2.40
Road Class: Tertiary or Local

Section: Butajira-Zeway Width: 7.00m
Length: 54.00km

No.
ESAL IRI IRI All Str. All Str Edge Rut Gravel
of
2017 722 0.07 6.33 6.16 13.52 14.08 10.09 8.48 0 3.01
2018 778 0.07 6.49 6.41 28.18 18.96 10.25 8.74 0 2.95
2019 838 0.08 6.70 6.59 50.11 24.72 10.43 9.00 0 2.85
2020 903 0.08 6.90 6.80 70.57 29.27 10.65 9.26 0 2.69
2021 984 0.09 7.07 6.99 84.38 15.46 10.91 9.53 0 2.57
2022 1,072 0.10 7.21 7.14 92.89 6.95 11.22 9.81 0 2.54
2023 1,168 0.10 7.32 7.26 97.43 2.40 11.60 10.08 0 2.52
2024 1,272 0.11 7.42 7.37 99.34 0.49 12.05 10.36 0 2.51
2025 1,386 0.12 7.52 7.47 99.82 0.00 12.59 10.65 0 2.51
2026 1,510 0.13 7.61 7.56 99.81 0.00 13.24 10.93 0 2.51
2027 1,618 0.14 7.71 7.66 99.80 0.00 13.99 11.22 0 2.51
2028 1,733 0.15 7.81 7.76 99.79 0.00 14.86 11.51 0 2.51
2029 1,856 0.16 7.92 7.87 99.77 0.00 15.87 11.80 0 2.50
2030 1,988 0.17 8.03 7.97 99.76 0.00 17.04 12.10 0 2.50
2031 2,130 0.18 8.14 8.08 99.74 0.00 18.40 12.40 0 2.50
2032 2,282 0.20 8.26 8.20 99.71 0.00 19.98 12.70 0 2.50
2033 2,411 0.21 8.38 8.32 99.69 0.00 21.76 13.01 0 2.50
2034 2,547 0.22 8.51 8.45 99.66 0.00 23.76 13.32 0 2.50
2035 2,692 0.23 8.64 8.57 99.63 0.00 26.04 13.63 0 2.50
2036 2,844 0.24 8.86 8.75 99.47 0.00 28.61 13.95 87 2.50
HDM-4 Version 1.1
IRI m/km Butajira-Zeway Crack,ravelling % Butajira-Zeway

10.00 100.00
9.00 90.00
80.00
8.00 70.00
7.00 60.00
6.00 50.00
40.00
5.00
30.00
4.00 20.00
3.00 10.00
2.00 0.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
1.00
0.00 % %
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Year Year
Alternative: with Study Name: Commando-Fiche

Section: Commando-Fiche Run Date: 20-09-2017

2017 1,008 0.20 6.28 6.14 45.72 52.84 100.19 15.29 5 2.96
2018 1,038 0.21 6.28 6.14 45.72 52.84 100.19 15.29 5 2.96
2019 1,068 0.21 6.28 6.14 22.86 26.42 50.10 7.65 3 2.96
2020 1,100 0.22 8.61 8.30 0.00 0.00 0.31 11.10 0 2.00
2021 1,139 0.22 8.82 8.71 0.00 0.00 0.72 11.74 0 2.00
2022 1,179 0.23 9.04 8.93 0.00 0.00 1.18 12.37 0 2.00
2023 1,221 0.24 9.27 9.16 0.00 0.00 1.68 13.01 0 2.00
2024 1,265 0.25 9.51 9.39 0.50 0.00 2.23 13.64 0 2.00
2025 1,310 0.25 9.77 9.64 2.38 0.00 2.84 14.29 0 2.00
2026 1,356 0.26 10.04 9.90 6.65 0.00 3.50 14.93 0 2.00
2027 1,419 0.27 10.35 10.20 14.30 0.00 4.25 15.58 0 1.99
2028 1,485 0.29 10.70 10.53 26.39 0.00 5.09 16.23 0 1.98
2029 1,553 0.30 11.11 10.91 43.96 1.63 6.03 16.89 0 1.96
2030 1,625 0.31 11.55 11.33 63.84 6.84 7.10 17.56 1 1.93
2031 1,700 0.32 11.98 11.76 78.45 20.49 8.32 18.24 4 1.90
2032 1,779 0.34 12.40 12.19 88.36 11.49 9.70 18.93 7 1.90
2033 1,847 0.35 12.83 12.62 94.54 5.28 11.24 19.62 11 1.90
2034 1,917 0.36 13.29 13.06 97.94 1.85 12.96 20.32 16 1.90
2035 1,990 0.37 13.83 13.56 99.46 0.30 14.87 21.03 22 1.90
2036 2,066 0.38 14.48 14.15 99.71 0.00 17.02 21.73 30 1.90

Section: Commando-Fiche Width: 7.00m
Length: 74.00km
2017 1,008 0.20 6.28 6.14 45.72 52.84 100.19 15.29 5 2.96
2018 1,038 0.21 6.77 6.53 98.47 0.00 100.47 15.58 66 2.80
2019 1,068 0.21 7.05 6.91 98.30 0.00 100.77 15.90 179 2.77
2020 1,100 0.22 7.46 7.26 98.12 0.00 101.11 16.21 304 2.77
2021 1,139 0.22 8.01 7.74 97.92 0.00 101.48 16.52 442 2.77
2022 1,179 0.23 8.71 8.36 97.69 0.00 101.89 16.83 595 2.77
2023 1,221 0.24 9.58 9.14 97.44 0.00 102.37 17.15 766 2.77
2024 1,265 0.25 10.67 10.13 97.16 0.00 102.92 17.46 957 2.77
2025 1,310 0.25 12.01 11.34 96.85 0.00 103.56 17.78 1,170 2.77
2026 1,356 0.26 13.66 12.84 96.50 0.00 104.34 18.10 1,409 2.77
2027 1,419 0.27 15.71 14.68 96.10 0.00 105.30 18.42 1,680 2.77
2028 1,485 0.29 16.00 15.85 95.64 0.00 106.49 18.74 1,989 2.77
2029 1,553 0.30 16.00 16.00 95.11 0.00 107.91 19.06 2,341 2.77
2030 1,625 0.31 16.00 16.00 94.51 0.00 109.47 19.38 2,746 2.77
2031 1,700 0.32 16.00 16.00 93.82 0.00 111.19 19.71 3,211 2.77
2032 1,779 0.34 16.00 16.00 93.03 0.00 113.06 20.03 3,750 2.77
2033 1,847 0.35 16.00 16.00 92.11 0.00 115.08 20.36 4,370 2.77
2034 1,917 0.36 16.00 16.00 91.06 0.00 117.25 20.69 5,087 2.77
2035 1,990 0.37 16.00 16.00 89.84 0.00 119.60 21.02 5,919 2.77
2036 2,066 0.38 16.00 16.00 88.42 0.00 122.13 21.35 6,888 2.78
HDM-4 Version 1.1
IRI m/km Commando-Fiche Crack, Ravelling % Commando-Fiche

16.00 120.00
14.00 100.00
12.00
80.00
10.00
60.00
8.00
40.00
6.00
20.00
4.00
0.00
2.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
0.00
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 % %
Year Year
Alternative: with Study Name: Gudober-D/Sina

Section: Gudober-D/Sina Run Date: 20-09-2017
Surface Class: Bituminous Road
Primary or Trunk
Class:

Year AADT /ELANE m/km IRI m/km % % sq.m mm holes mm
2017 885 0.19 2.06 2.03 0.00 3.95 0.15 2.28 0 3.04
2018 931 0.19 2.06 2.03 0.00 3.95 0.15 2.28 0 3.04
2019 979 0.20 2.06 2.03 0.00 1.98 0.08 1.14 0 3.04
2020 1,030 0.21 2.39 2.19 0.00 0.00 0.25 5.39 0 2.50
2021 1,100 0.23 2.49 2.44 0.00 0.00 0.53 5.75 0 2.50
2022 1,174 0.24 2.59 2.54 0.00 0.00 0.85 6.11 0 2.50
2023 1,252 0.26 2.70 2.65 0.00 0.00 1.22 6.48 0 2.50
2024 1,337 0.27 2.81 2.76 0.00 0.00 1.63 6.85 0 2.50
2025 1,427 0.29 2.93 2.87 0.00 0.00 2.11 7.22 0 2.50
2026 1,523 0.31 3.07 3.00 1.88 0.00 2.65 7.60 0 2.50
2027 1,603 0.33 3.23 3.15 5.63 0.00 3.25 7.98 0 2.50
2028 1,687 0.34 3.41 3.32 12.58 0.00 3.91 8.36 0 2.49
2029 1,776 0.36 3.63 3.52 23.77 2.66 4.65 8.74 0 2.48
2030 1,869 0.38 3.89 3.76 40.25 11.61 5.47 9.13 0 2.47
2031 1,968 0.40 4.20 4.05 60.51 32.74 6.38 9.52 1 2.44
2032 2,072 0.42 4.48 4.34 76.11 23.78 7.39 9.93 4 2.41
2033 2,148 0.43 4.76 4.62 86.82 13.05 8.49 10.34 8 2.40
2034 2,228 0.44 5.05 4.91 93.62 6.22 9.67 10.75 13 2.40
2035 2,310 0.46 5.39 5.22 97.48 2.34 10.96 11.17 20 2.40
2036 2,396 0.47 5.86 5.63 99.28 0.51 12.36 11.60 27 2.40

Section: Gudober-D/Sina Width: 7.00m
Length: 30.00km
2017 885 0.19 2.06 2.03 0.00 3.95 0.15 2.28 0 3.04
2018 931 0.19 2.11 2.08 0.00 10.21 0.35 2.57 0 3.04
2019 979 0.20 2.17 2.14 0.00 21.21 0.57 2.85 0 3.04
2020 1,030 0.21 2.24 2.21 1.74 38.43 0.82 3.14 0 3.04
2021 1,100 0.23 2.35 2.30 7.97 61.49 1.10 3.43 6 3.04
2022 1,174 0.24 2.51 2.43 21.65 78.30 1.42 3.72 16 3.03
2023 1,252 0.26 2.75 2.63 45.59 54.35 1.79 4.02 30 2.99
2024 1,337 0.27 3.02 2.88 72.68 27.23 2.21 4.32 41 2.93
2025 1,427 0.29 3.21 3.12 89.00 10.90 2.68 4.64 44 2.89
2026 1,523 0.31 3.36 3.29 97.07 2.81 3.22 4.96 47 2.89
2027 1,603 0.33 3.64 3.50 99.61 0.12 3.82 5.28 149 2.89
2028 1,687 0.34 4.04 3.84 99.55 0.00 4.49 5.61 267 2.89
2029 1,776 0.36 4.58 4.31 99.35 0.00 5.23 5.94 400 2.89
2030 1,869 0.38 5.30 4.94 99.13 0.00 6.06 6.27 549 2.89
2031 1,968 0.40 6.23 5.76 98.88 0.00 6.99 6.60 717 2.89
2032 2,072 0.42 7.42 6.82 98.59 0.00 8.07 6.94 909 2.89
2033 2,148 0.43 8.91 8.16 98.26 0.00 9.33 7.28 1,123 2.89
2034 2,228 0.44 10.76 9.84 97.89 0.00 10.88 7.61 1,365 2.89
2035 2,310 0.46 13.07 11.92 97.48 0.00 12.84 7.95 1,638 2.89
2036 2,396 0.47 15.94 14.50 97.00 0.00 15.38 8.29 1,948 2.89
HDM-4 Version 1.1
IRI m/km Gudober-D/sina Crack,Ravelling % Gudober-D/sina

6.00 120.00
100.00
5.00
80.00
4.00
60.00
3.00
40.00
2.00 20.00
1.00 0.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
0.00
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 % %
Year Year
Alternative: with Study Name: Kosse-G/GibeNo.2

Section: Kosse-G/GibeNo.2 Run Date: 20-09-2017
Surface Class: Bituminous Road Class: Secondary or Main
Year AADT /ELANE m/km IRI m/km % % sq.m mm holes mm
2017 669 0.04 6.31 6.16 13.52 13.77 10.08 8.29 0 3.02
2018 721 0.05 6.31 6.16 13.52 13.77 10.08 8.29 0 3.02
2019 778 0.05 6.31 6.16 6.76 6.89 5.04 4.15 0 3.02
2020 840 0.06 6.36 6.18 0.00 0.00 0.18 5.14 0 2.50
2021 907 0.06 6.44 6.40 0.00 0.00 0.39 5.51 0 2.50
2022 980 0.07 6.51 6.47 0.00 0.00 0.64 5.87 0 2.50
2023 1,058 0.07 6.59 6.55 0.00 0.00 0.93 6.24 0 2.50
2024 1,142 0.08 6.68 6.64 0.00 0.00 1.27 6.62 0 2.50
2025 1,234 0.08 6.76 6.72 0.00 0.00 1.67 6.99 0 2.50
2026 1,332 0.09 6.85 6.81 0.00 0.00 2.14 7.37 0 2.50
2027 1,423 0.10 6.94 6.89 0.00 0.00 2.68 7.76 0 2.50
2028 1,521 0.11 7.03 6.99 0.00 0.00 3.31 8.14 0 2.50
2029 1,625 0.11 7.13 7.08 0.00 1.04 4.02 8.53 0 2.50
2030 1,736 0.12 7.24 7.18 1.88 6.08 4.85 8.92 0 2.50
2031 1,855 0.13 7.37 7.30 5.63 18.81 5.80 9.32 0 2.50
2032 1,982 0.14 7.52 7.44 12.58 43.72 6.90 9.71 0 2.49
2033 2,137 0.15 7.70 7.61 23.77 74.16 8.20 10.12 0 2.49
2034 2,305 0.17 7.93 7.82 40.24 59.62 9.73 10.53 1 2.47
2035 2,488 0.19 8.20 8.06 60.49 39.34 11.55 10.95 3 2.44
2036 2,687 0.20 8.45 8.32 76.09 23.70 13.72 11.38 7 2.41
Alternative: without Road Class: Secondary or Main

Section: Kosse-G/GibeNo.2 Width: 7.00m
Length: 35.00km
2017 669 0.04 6.31 6.16 13.52 13.77 10.08 8.29 0 3.02
2018 721 0.05 6.47 6.39 28.18 18.16 10.21 8.54 0 2.98
2019 778 0.05 6.67 6.57 50.11 23.24 10.37 8.79 0 2.91
2020 840 0.06 6.87 6.77 70.57 29.28 10.56 9.04 0 2.81
2021 907 0.06 7.03 6.95 84.38 15.46 10.77 9.30 0 2.73
2022 980 0.07 7.15 7.09 92.89 6.95 11.03 9.56 0 2.69
2023 1,058 0.07 7.26 7.21 97.43 2.40 11.34 9.83 0 2.67
2024 1,142 0.08 7.34 7.30 99.34 0.49 11.70 10.10 0 2.66
2025 1,234 0.08 7.42 7.38 99.83 0.00 12.13 10.37 0 2.66
2026 1,332 0.09 7.50 7.46 99.82 0.00 12.63 10.64 0 2.66
2027 1,423 0.10 7.58 7.54 99.81 0.00 13.21 10.92 0 2.66
2028 1,521 0.11 7.66 7.62 99.80 0.00 13.87 11.20 0 2.66
2029 1,625 0.11 7.75 7.70 99.79 0.00 14.63 11.48 0 2.66
2030 1,736 0.12 7.84 7.79 99.78 0.00 15.51 11.76 0 2.66
2031 1,855 0.13 7.93 7.88 99.76 0.00 16.51 12.05 0 2.66
2032 1,982 0.14 8.02 7.97 99.75 0.00 17.68 12.34 0 2.66
2033 2,137 0.15 8.12 8.07 99.73 0.00 19.04 12.64 0 2.66
2034 2,305 0.17 8.31 8.22 99.56 0.00 20.64 12.94 98 2.66
2035 2,488 0.19 8.70 8.51 99.37 0.00 22.54 13.25 215 2.66
2036 2,687 0.20 9.28 8.99 99.14 0.00 24.81 13.56 351 2.66
HDM-4 Version 1.1
IRI m/km Kosse-G/Gibe No.2

Crack,Ravelling % Kosse-G/Gibe No.2
9.00 80.00
8.00 70.00
7.00 60.00
6.00 50.00
5.00 40.00
4.00 30.00
20.00
3.00
10.00
2.00
0.00
1.00 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
0.00
% %
2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035
Year Year
Alternative: with Study Name: Robe-Eteye

Section: Robe-Etaya Run Date: 20-09-2017


2017 882 0.19 6.28 6.14 45.72 52.84 100.15 15.29 5 2.93
2018 927 0.20 6.28 6.14 45.72 52.84 100.15 15.29 5 2.93
2019 973 0.21 6.28 6.14 22.86 26.42 50.08 7.65 3 2.93
2020 1,022 0.22 8.40 8.20 0.00 0.00 0.27 5.59 0 3.00
2021 1,086 0.23 8.50 8.45 0.00 0.00 0.64 5.99 0 3.00
2022 1,153 0.24 8.61 8.56 0.00 0.00 1.07 6.39 0 3.00
2023 1,225 0.26 8.72 8.67 0.00 0.00 1.55 6.79 0 3.00
2024 1,302 0.27 8.83 8.78 0.00 0.00 2.11 7.20 0 3.00
2025 1,383 0.29 8.95 8.89 0.00 0.00 2.74 7.61 0 3.00
2026 1,470 0.30 9.06 9.00 0.00 0.00 3.47 8.02 0 3.00
2027 1,538 0.32 9.19 9.13 0.92 0.00 4.27 8.43 0 3.00
2028 1,609 0.33 9.33 9.26 3.47 0.00 5.16 8.85 0 3.00
2029 1,684 0.34 9.49 9.41 8.73 2.17 6.14 9.27 0 2.99
2030 1,762 0.36 9.68 9.59 17.73 10.25 7.24 9.69 0 2.99
2031 1,844 0.37 9.91 9.80 31.50 29.10 8.46 10.11 0 2.97
2032 1,929 0.39 10.18 10.04 50.94 48.92 9.82 10.54 0 2.95
2033 2,012 0.41 10.45 10.31 69.26 30.58 11.34 10.98 2 2.91
2034 2,098 0.42 10.69 10.57 82.20 17.61 13.03 11.42 5 2.88
2035 2,188 0.44 10.93 10.81 90.77 9.01 14.92 11.87 8 2.88
2036 2,282 0.46 11.17 11.05 95.93 3.81 17.01 12.32 13 2.88
2037 2,381 0.47 11.46 11.31 98.61 1.09 19.34 12.78 19 2.88
Alternative: without Road Class: Primary or Trunk

Section: Robe-Etaya Width: 7.00m
Length: 48.00km

2017 882 0.19 6.28 6.14 45.72 52.84 100.15 15.29 5 2.93
2018 927 0.20 6.75 6.52 98.50 0.00 100.37 15.58 48 2.71
2019 973 0.21 6.97 6.86 98.38 0.00 100.62 15.89 129 2.65
2020 1,022 0.22 7.26 7.11 98.25 0.00 100.91 16.20 217 2.65
2021 1,086 0.23 7.63 7.44 98.10 0.00 101.24 16.52 315 2.65
2022 1,153 0.24 8.10 7.86 97.94 0.00 101.62 16.83 424 2.65
2023 1,225 0.26 8.68 8.39 97.76 0.00 102.08 17.15 546 2.65
2024 1,302 0.27 9.39 9.03 97.56 0.00 102.62 17.47 682 2.65
2025 1,383 0.29 10.27 9.83 97.33 0.00 103.27 17.79 835 2.65
2026 1,470 0.30 11.35 10.81 97.07 0.00 104.06 18.11 1,008 2.65
2027 1,538 0.32 12.67 12.01 96.78 0.00 105.01 18.44 1,201 2.65
2028 1,609 0.33 14.28 13.48 96.46 0.00 106.17 18.76 1,418 2.65
2029 1,684 0.34 16.00 15.14 96.09 0.00 107.58 19.09 1,662 2.65
2030 1,762 0.36 16.00 16.00 95.67 0.00 109.32 19.42 1,938 2.65
2031 1,844 0.37 16.00 16.00 95.20 0.00 111.33 19.75 2,250 2.65
2032 1,929 0.39 16.00 16.00 94.66 0.00 113.54 20.08 2,605 2.65
2033 2,012 0.41 16.00 16.00 94.05 0.00 115.93 20.41 3,009 2.65
2034 2,098 0.42 16.00 16.00 93.35 0.00 118.54 20.75 3,470 2.66
2035 2,188 0.44 16.00 16.00 92.55 0.00 121.38 21.08 3,998 2.66
2036 2,282 0.46 16.00 16.00 91.64 0.00 124.46 21.42 4,605 2.66
2037 2,381 0.47 16.00 16.00 90.59 0.00 127.82 21.76 5,306 2.66
HDM-4 Version 1.1
IRI m/km Robe-Etaya Crack, Ravelling % Robe-Etaya

12.00 120.00
10.00 100.00
80.00
8.00
60.00
6.00
40.00
4.00
20.00
2.00 0.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
0.00
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
% %
Year Year
Annex K: HDM4 Economic Analysis Summary
Currency: Ethiopian Birr (millions). Study Name: Alemgena-Butajira

Discount rate: 10.00%. Run Date: 20-09-2017
Analysis Mode: Analysis-by-Project
Alternative: with vs Alternative: without
Savings in Savings in Savings in Reduction in Net Net Economic
Increase in Road Agency Costs MT Travel NMT Travel & Accident Exogenous Benefits
MT VOC Time Cost Operating Costs Benefits (NPV)
Capital Recurrent Special
Undiscounted 231.12 -0.45 0.00 3,001.73 78.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 2,849.59
Discounted 252.60 -0.20 0.00 752.25 19.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 519.49
Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) = 18.6% (No. of solutions = 1)
HDM-4 Version 1.1 Page -1 of 1
Currency: Ethiopian Birr (millions). Study Name: Ambo-Gedo

Savings in Savings in Savings in Reduction in Net Net
NMT Travel &
MT Travel Accident Exogenous Economic
Increase in Road Agency Costs Operating
MT VOC Time Cost Costs Costs Benefits Benefits
Capital Recurrent Special (NPV)
Undiscounted 41.73 -0.87 0.00 3,899.78 73.97 0.00 0.00 0.00 3,932.89
Discounted 45.61 -0.39 0.00 1,012.86 19.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 986.76
Currency: Ethiopian Birr (millions). Study Name: Butajira-Hosana

Undiscounted 47.99 -0.05 0.00 1,774.47 29.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 1,755.63
Discounted 52.45 -0.02 0.00 458.04 7.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 412.90

Currency: Ethiopian Birr (millions). Study Name: Butajira-Zeway

Undiscounted 35.21 -0.68 0.00 296.43 6.09 0.00 0.00 0.00 267.99
Discounted 38.48 -0.31 0.00 121.58 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 85.81
Currency: Ethiopian Birr (millions). Study Name: Commando-Fiche

Undiscounted 48.25 -0.58 0.00 2,673.91 46.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 2,672.73
Discounted 52.74 -0.26 0.00 749.39 12.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 709.87

Currency: Ethiopian Birr (millions). Study Name: Gudober-D/Sina

Undiscounted 10.00 -0.58 0.00 942.65 14.83 0.00 0.00 0.00 947.48
Discounted 10.93 -0.26 0.00 185.56 2.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 177.35
Currency: Ethiopian Birr (millions). Study Name: Kosse-G/GibeNo.2

Undiscounted 22.82 -0.19 0.00 229.78 3.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 210.78
Discounted 24.94 -0.09 0.00 80.52 1.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 56.91

Currency: Ethiopian Birr (millions). Study Name: Robe-Eteye

Undiscounted 31.30 -2.44 0.00 3,072.96 60.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 3,104.26
Discounted 34.26 -1.00 0.00 727.44 14.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 708.39

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ADDIS ABABA UNIVERSITY

ADDIS ABABA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

Life Cycle Cost Analysis for Road Maintenance Interventions

By Workie Tegen Gorfu

Advisor Alemayhu Ambo, PhD

Alemayhu Ambo, PhD ____________________ ____________________

Habtamu Melese, PhD ____________________ ____________________

Raeed Ali ____________________ ____________________

Dr.Agizew Nigussie ____________________ ____________________

2.4.3 Agency Costs .............................................................................................................................15

Workie Tegen iii

Annex A: Geographical Map of Alemgena Road Maintenance District

Annex D: Paved Road Condition Survey Form 2: Carriageway

Annex E: Alemgena Road maintenance districts sections

Annex F: Sample of Bill of Quantity and Condition Survey

Annex G: Vehicular Operating Costs (2004-2008) EC

Annex H: Average costs for five years (2004-2008) EC

Annex I: Discounted costs for twenty years

Annex K: HDM4 Pavement Deterioration Summary (Combined)

Annex L: HDM4 Economic Analysis Summary

Workie Tegen vii

1.1 Background of the Study

1.2 Statement of the Problem

1.3 Objectives of the Study

1.3.1 General Objective

1.3.2 Specific Objectives

 Identify different maintenance intervention activities based on road defects;

1.5 Significance of the Study

1.6 Scope of the Study

1.7 Limitation of the Study

1.8 Organization of the Study

2.2 The Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

2.2.1 Overview of LCCA

2.2.2 The Purpose of LCCA in Road Maintenance Interventions

different road maintenance intervention options (Babashamsi et.al., 2016). As to (FHWA,2002),

2.2.3 Steps and Components of the Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

 Establish alternative pavement design strategies for the analysis period;

Initial Construction Agencies costs: User costs Environmental

Figure 1: A flowchart describing LCCA process for pavement type selection

2.3 Economic Analysis Components

2.3.1 Evaluation Methods

 Net Present Value or Net Present Worth (NPW)

2.3.2 Analysis Period

2.3.3 Discount Rate

2.3.4 Sensitivity and Risk Analysis

2.4 Cost Factors in LCCA

2.4.1 Initial Construction Cost

2.4.2 Maintenance and Rehabilitation Costs

2.4.3 Agency Costs

2.4.4 User Costs

2.4.5 Salvage Values

2.5 Road Maintenance

 Preserve the road in its originally constructed condition;

Figure 2: Typical life cycle of road asset

2.5.1 Road Defects and Corresponding Preventive Methods

2.6 Road Fund Administration

 budget allocated by the Government;

Table 2: Allocated & requested budget for road maintenance in Ethiopia

1 2010/11 1,772,214,171 715,000,000 1,057,214,171

2.7 Road Condition Survey

Alemayhu Ambo, PhD

Habtamu Melese, PhD

Raeed Ali

Dr.Agizew Nigussie