Module No. 4: Estimation of Parameters: Math 2 - Statistics and Probability 2nd Semester - AY 2020-2021
Module No. 4: Estimation of Parameters: Math 2 - Statistics and Probability 2nd Semester - AY 2020-2021
Module No. 4: Estimation of Parameters: Math 2 - Statistics and Probability 2nd Semester - AY 2020-2021
1. Overview
This module covers some the most essential topics provided by DepEd, some of which are t-
distribution, percentiles using t-distribution, interval estimation of the population mean, and the sample
size determination for the mean. There are different activities (Progress Check) embedded in this module
which will help you practice the lessons you have learned in the discussion. At the end of this module, an
evaluation will be conducted to assess students’ learning.
Opening Prayer
God our Father, we come to you in our need to ask your protection against the COVID-19 that has
disturbed and even claimed lives.
We pray that you guide the people tasked to find cures for this disease and to stem its
transmission.
Protect the medical experts that they may minister to the sick with competence and compassion.
We pray for those afflicted, may they be restored to health soon.
Protect those who care for them. Grant eternal rest to those who have died.
Give us the grace in this trying time to work for the good of all and to help those in need.
We implore you to stop the spread of this virus and to save us from our fears.
Grant all these through our Lord Jesus Christ your Son who lives and reigns with you, in the unity
of the Holy Spirit, one God, forever and ever. Amen.
We fly to your protection, oh Holy Mother of God.
Do not despise our petition in our necessities, but deliver us always from all dangers, oh glorious
and blessed Virgin. Amen.
Our Lady, health of the sick, pray for us.
St. Raphael the Archangel, pray for us.
St. Roch, pray for us.
St. Lorenzo Ruiz, pray for us.
St. Pedro Calungsod, pray for us.
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 1 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
Motivation
Instructions: Let’s review our previous lesson by putting a check mark under the “YES” column
if the statement is true and a check mark on the “NO” column if the statement is
false.
YES NO
The z-distribution is a normal distribution with a mean of 0 and standard
deviation of 1.
The normal curve is bell-shaped.
The tails of the normal curve approach the vertical axis but never touch it.
The mean is always greater than either the median or the mode.
The curve is symmetrical about its center.
The total area under the normal curve is always less than 1.
The mean, median and mode coincide at the center.
The width of the normal curve depends on the standard deviation of the
distribution.
Almost 99.7% of the distribution falls within three standard deviations from
the mean.
The left tail of the normal curve is flatter than its right tail.
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 2 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
TOPICS:
1. Illustrating t-Distribution
2. Identifying Percentiles Using t-Distribution
3. Interval Estimation of the Population Mean
4. Sample Size Determination for the Mean
You can use a distribution known as t-distribution or Student’s t-distribution to determine how
near a sample mean is to a population mean. It is a set of distribution models formulated by William S. Gosset.
These distribution models are unimodal, symmetric, and bell-shaped like the normal distribution.
They also depend on 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑑𝑜𝑚, denoted by df. The degrees of freedom is given by 𝑑𝑓 =
𝑛 − 1, where 𝑛 is the sample size.
The smaller the sample size, the more stretched the tails of the distribution are. However, as the
degrees of freedom increase, the 𝑡 −distribution becomes close to the standard normal distribution. Consider
the figure below to study how the 𝑡 −distribution compares to the standard normal distribution.
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 3 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
Take note that z-test is only used when the population standard deviation or variance is known
and/or the sample size is large enough. But for sample sizes which are small, in which sometimes the
population standard deviation or variance is unknown, you rely on the t-distribution whose value can be
known using:
(𝑥̅ −𝜇)
𝑡 = 𝑠 ; with degrees of freedom 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1.
√𝑛
where,
𝑥̅ is the sample mean;
𝜇 is the population mean;
𝑠 is the standard deviation of the sample;
𝑛 is the sample size.
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 4 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
𝑑𝑓 𝛼 0.1 0.05
1 3.078 6.314
2 1.886 2.920
⋮ ⋮ ⋮
8 1.397 1.860
Example:
Determine what is asked on the given data below.
1. 𝑛 = 14 𝛼 = 0.1 𝑡(𝛼 ,𝑑𝑓) =?
2. 𝑑𝑓 = 10 𝛼 = 0.025 𝑡(𝛼 ,𝑑𝑓) =?
3. 𝑡(𝛼 ,𝑑𝑓) = 2.052 𝛼 = 0.025 𝑛 =?
4. Find the 𝑡 −value when 𝜇 = 42, 𝑥̅ = 44, 𝑠 = 5 and 𝑛 = 25.
𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛:
1. Given: n= 14 𝛼 = 0.1 𝑡(𝛼 ,𝑑𝑓)= 1.350
If 𝑛 = 14, then 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 = 14 − 1 = 13
df 𝛼 0.1
1 3.078
2 1.886
⋮ ⋮
13 1.350
1 3.078 6.314
2 1.886 2.920
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 5 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
⋮ ⋮ ⋮
1 3.078 6.314
2 1.886 2.920
⋮ ⋮ ⋮
Since: 𝑑𝑓 = 27
𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 – 1
27 = 𝑛 – 1
27 + 1 = 𝑛
𝒏 = 𝟐𝟖
𝑥̅ − 𝜇 44 − 42
𝑡= 𝑠 = =𝟐
5
√𝑛 √25
This activity will determine if you have learned from the previous discussion.
Instructions: Determine what is asked on the given data below.
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 6 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
Percentile is one of the measurements in statistics which tells the value below in which an
observations’ percentage in a set of observations falls. For example, you score 70 in an exam and it was
mentioned that you scored at the 85𝑡ℎ percentile, it means that 85% of the scores are below you and 15% of
the scores are above you.
In addition, you can use the 𝑡 −distribution table if you want to find percentiles for a t-distribution.
A percentile is a number on a statistical distribution whose less-than probability is the given percentage; for
example, the 95𝑡ℎ percentile of the t-distribution with n – 1 degrees of freedom is that value of whose left-
tail (𝑙𝑒𝑠𝑠 − 𝑡ℎ𝑎𝑛) probability is 0.95 (𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑤ℎ𝑜𝑠𝑒 𝑟𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 − 𝑡𝑎𝑖𝑙 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑖𝑠 0.05).
Example:
Determine what is asked based on the given data below.
1. n = 14 Percentile = 95𝑡ℎ 𝑡(𝛼,𝑑𝑓) =
2. df = 10 Percentile = 90 𝑡ℎ
𝑡(𝛼,𝑑𝑓) =
Solution:
1. n = 14 Percentile = 95𝑡ℎ 𝑡(𝛼,𝑑𝑓) = 1.771
To find the value of 95 percentile, identify first the degrees of freedom.
𝑡ℎ
𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1
= 14 − 1
= 13
To solve for 95𝑡ℎ percentile, we need to understand first its implication which is to get the 𝑡 −value
that is less than the probability 0.95 and the right tail probability that is 0.05. Based on the table
below, the 95𝑡ℎ percentile is 1.771.
df 𝛼 0.05
1 6.314
2 2.920
⋮ ⋮
13 1.771
1 3.078
2 1.886
⋮ ⋮
10 1.372
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 7 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
This activity will help you apply your learnings from the previous discussion.
Instructions: Determine what is asked based on the given data below.
Types of Estimation
Point Estimation deals with computing for a single value from a random sample to represent an
unknown population measure. The computed single value is called a point estimate. The rule or formula to
compute for the point estimate is called a point estimator. A point estimator is said to be the best estimator
if its unbiased and has the smallest variance among all possible estimators. An estimator is unbiased if the
mean of its sampling distribution is equal to the true value of the parameter; otherwise, it is biased. Note that
the best point estimator of the population mean 𝜇 is the sample mean 𝑥̅ .
Interval Estimation deals with constructing an interval of possible values from a random sample to
estimate an unknown parameter of interest. Oftentimes, the lower and upper limits of this range of values
are computed giving the general form
called an interval estimate. The rule or formula that describes this calculation is called the interval estimator.
Estimating consists of either giving a certain value or giving an interval. When an interval estimate
has an attached confidence coefficient, it will be called confidence interval. Confidence interval is a range
with lower limit and upper limit used to estimate population parameter. The lower and the upper limit of the
interval is within the certain level of confidence.
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 8 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
● Margin of Error refers to the maximum allowable difference between the estimate and true parameter
value.
𝜎 𝑠
Margin of Error 𝒆 = 𝑍𝛼 ( 𝑛) 𝑜𝑟 𝑡(𝛼,𝑛−1) ( 𝑛)
2 √ 2 √
Example 1:
The scores of a random sample of 100 high school students on a standardized mathematics test in
school A gave a mean of 78 and a standard deviation of 20.
1. What is the best point estimate of the true average score in this standardized mathematics test?
2. What is the standard error of this point estimate?
3. What is the margin of error?
4. Construct a 95% confidence interval estimate for the true average score in mathematics in this
standardized test.
5. If the average score in mathematics in this standardized test is 73 in school B, can you conclude that there
is a significant difference between the average scores in the standardized mathematics test for the two
schools?
𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛:
It is given that for school A, 𝑥̅ = 78, 𝜎 = 20, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 = 100.
1. The value of the sample mean 𝑥̅ , which is 78, is the best point estimate of the true average score of school
A in this standardized mathematics test.
2. The standard error given by this point estimate, with the sample standard deviation 𝑠 estimating the
population standard deviation is,
𝜎 20 20
𝜎𝑥̅ = = = = 𝟐.
√𝑛 √100 10
4. A 95% confidence interval estimate of the true average score in this standardized mathematics test of
school A is given by
𝜎 𝜎
𝑥̅ − 𝑍𝛼 ( ) < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝑍𝛼 ( )
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛
or simply
𝑥̅ − 𝑒 < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝑒
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 9 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
This means that you are 95% confident that the true average score in this standardized mathematics test
of school A is between 74.08 and 81.92.
5. There is a significant difference between the true average scores in the standardized mathematics test of
school A and B since 73 is not contained in the 95% confidence interval. Moreover, you can conclude that
school A has significantly higher average score in this mathematics test than school B.
Example 2:
Suppose that a random sample of 10 students yielded the following grades in mathematics:
90 93 85 77 88 80 78 83 95 90
1. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the true average grade in mathematics.
2. Does the 95% confidence interval above contains the average grade of 85? What does this imply?
𝑆𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛:
It is given that, 𝑥̅ = 85.9, 𝑠 = 6.3, 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 = 10.
1. The 95% confidence interval results to 𝛼 = 0.05. Looking for the degrees of freedom, 𝑑𝑓 = 𝑛 − 1 = 10 −
1 = 9. From the 𝑡 − 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 table, the 𝑡 − 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 of 𝑡0.05,9 = 2.262. By substitution,
2
𝑠 𝑠
𝑥̅ − 𝑡(𝛼,𝑛−1) ( ) < 𝜇 < 𝑥̅ + 𝑡(𝛼,𝑛−1) ( )
2 √𝑛 2 √𝑛
6.3 6.3
85.9 − (2.262) ( ) < 𝜇 < 85.9 + (2.262) (
)
√10 √10
85.9 − (2.262)(1.99) < 𝜇 < 85.9 + (2.262)(1.99)
85.9 − 4.50 < 𝜇 < 85.9 + 4.50
𝟖𝟏. 𝟒 < 𝝁 < 𝟗𝟎. 𝟒
2. The 95% confidence interval [81.4, 90.4] for the true average grade in mathematics contains the average
grade 85, and so, there is no significant difference between 85 and the average of the grades.
This activity will help you apply your learnings from the previous discussion.
Instructions: Determine what is asked based on the given data below.
1. A study was conducted to determine the average salary of a teacher. With this, 81 teachers were
invited as samples. It was known that the mean salary of these sample teachers is P24,000 with
a standard deviation P1,000. Construct a 90% confidence interval estimate for the average salary
of all teachers.
2. The average hour spent in computer by 20 senior high school students during online class is 7
hours with a standard deviation of 2 hours. Construct a 98% confidence interval of the average
hour spent by all senior high school students. Identify the width of the interval.
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 10 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
3. Interview 10 grade 11 senior high school students in your community on their weekly allowance.
Use the information gathered to estimate the weekly allowance of all grade 11 senior high school
students.
In many real-life situations, your first task is to decide how large a sample you should get.
Determining the sample size will help you obtain a narrow interval with a high level of confidence. This
𝜎
ensures that the error in estimating 𝜇 will not exceed the margin of error 𝒆 = 𝑍𝛼 ( 𝑛) at a confidence level.
2 √
Solving for 𝑛 from the margin of error gives
𝜎
𝑒 = 𝑍𝛼 ( )
√𝑛
2
𝜎
√𝑛 = 𝑍𝛼 ( )
2 𝑒
𝝈 𝟐
𝒏 = [𝒁𝜶 (𝒆 )]
𝟐
In estimating the population mean 𝜇 by the sample mean 𝑥̅ , the error will not exceed the margin of error 𝑒
with a confidence level (1 − 𝛼)100% when the sample size is at least equal to
𝝈 𝟐
𝒏 = [𝒁𝜶 (𝒆 )] .
𝟐
This is the sample size determination formula.
Example 1:
It was reported that students who do online business during this pandemic crisis earns money with a
standard deviation of ₱2,000. If you wanted to estimate the mean income of students, with 95% confidence,
within ₱450 of the true population mean, how many students should you select?
Solution:
Using the sample size determination formula, you get
2
𝜎
𝑛 ≥ [𝑍𝛼 ( 𝑒 )]
2
2
2,000
𝑛 ≥ [𝑍0.05 ( 450 )]
2
2,000 2
𝑛 ≥ [1.96 ( 450 )]
𝑛 ≥ [1.96(4.44)]2
𝑛 ≥ (8.70)2
𝑛 ≥ 75.69
𝑛 ≥ 76
Therefore, you need to select 76 students as respondents to be 95% confident that the sample mean of
income is within ₱450 of the true population mean.
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 11 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
Example 2:
You will be conducting a study to estimate the average daily food expenditure of students. You want to be
95% confident that the sample mean will be within ₱20 of the true mean. If you can approximate the
population standard deviation by ₱100 and assume an approximate normal distribution, how large a sample
should you get?
Solution:
Using the sample size determination formula, you get
2
𝜎
𝑛 ≥ [𝑍𝛼 ( 𝑒 )]
2
2
100
𝑛 ≥ [𝑍0.05 ( 20 )]
2
100 2
𝑛 ≥ [1.96 ( )]
20
𝑛 ≥ [1.96(5)]2
𝑛 ≥ (9.8)2
𝑛 ≥ 96.04
𝑛 ≥ 97
The minimum sample size is oftentimes rounded up since a sample consisting of 96.04 is not possible. Hence,
the sample size needed to be 95% confident that the estimate of the daily food expenditure will differ by no
more than ₱20 is 97 persons.
This activity will help you apply your learnings from the previous discussion.
Instructions: Determine what is asked based on the given data below.
1. The school head observes an increase of internet expenditures of learners for months already
with a standard deviation of 15 pesos. How many learners must be sampled in order to be 99%
confident that the amount spent on internet expenditures will be within P 2.00 of the true mean?
2. During the pandemic, the LGU gave cash assistance to those who individuals who were badly
affected. It was said that the cash assistance is normally distributed with a standard deviation of
P500. If a concerned citizen wanted to know if it is true with 97% confidence level within P300
of the true population mean, how many individuals does he need as samples?
5. Assignment (optional)
No Assignment 😊
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 12 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
There is no such thing as absolute value in this world. You can only estimate what a
thing is worth to you. −𝐶ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝐷𝑢𝑑𝑙𝑒𝑦 𝑊𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑟
7. Evaluation
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 13 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
Closing Prayer
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 14 | Page
SENIOR HIGH SCHOOL
MATH 2 - STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
2nd Semester | AY 2020-2021
ANGELUS (Continuation)
Let us pray:
References:
Albacea, Zita VJ, et al. (2016). Statistics and Probability. Commission on Higher Education
Banigon, Ricardo B., et al. (2018). Statistics and Probability for Senior High School. Educational
Resources Corporation
Faculty: Ms. Camille Franco, Ms. Veronica Mallari, Ms. Narlyn Perez, Ms. Acell Tiglao 15 | Page