FOCUS - Indofood Sukses Makmur: Saved by The Green
FOCUS - Indofood Sukses Makmur: Saved by The Green
FOCUS - Indofood Sukses Makmur: Saved by The Green
INDF At a Glance
FIGURE 1. SALES BREAKDOWN, AS OF 2013 FIGURE 2. EBIT BREAKDOWN TREND
100% 0%
9% 12% 14%
90%
80% 30% 36%
44% 22%
70% 36% 34%
60%
25% 21% 23%
50%
15%
40% 18% 16%
30%
20% 36% 39% 43% 43%
31% 33%
10%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F
FIGURE 3. EBIT MARGIN PER SEGMENT (YEARLY) FIGURE 4. INDF’S MARKET SHARE ON EACH KEY SEGMENT
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
FY13 results within expectation. INDF reported FY13 NPAT of Rp2.5tn (-23%YoY), within
our expectation which mainly due to forex loss of Rp1.7tn that mostly attributable to China
Minzhong acquisition. Adjusted for the forex loss, FY13 core NPAT Rp3.3tn (+3%YoY)
considerably in-line with consensus. FY13 EBIT of Rp6.1tn (-10%YoY) was slightly below our
expectation due to margin compression in ICBP and Bogasari during 4Q13. Overall INDF has
enjoyed strong earnings growth in 4Q13 with NPAT of Rp582bn (+166%QoQ) thanks to
agribusiness and China Minzhong
FIGURE 8. BOGASARI QUARTERLY VOLUME GROWTH FIGURE 9. BOGASARI QUARTERLY ASP INCREASE
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
FIGURE 10. QUARTERLY CPO & PK ASP (RP/KG) FIGURE 11. QUARTERLY SUGAR ASP (RP/KG)
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
FIGURE 12. EBIT MARGIN PER SEGMENT FIGURE 13. IFAR’S QUARTERLY EBITDA – STRONG 4Q13 RESULT
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
Our CPO analyst, Hariyanto Wijaya, reiterate his bullish view on CPO prices given drought
weather that would likely to affect the FFB yield and CPO supplies. In our view, INDF’s
earnings will benefit from the straight translation of USD revenues driven from its
agribusiness, while most of the costs are IDR-denominated. We estimate agribusiness EBIT
contribution will jump significantly from 22% in FY13 up to 36% in 2014F, normalizing from
historical trend.
FIGURE 14. DROUGHT SEASON WOULD SUPPORT CPO PRICES FIGURE 15. AGRIBUSINESS EBIT CONTRIBUTION WILL JUMP
INDF has allocated Rp1.9tn capex budget for the industrial farming expansion, with payback
period about 3.5 year, to save labor cost and improve crop productivity. Weakening RMB
would benefit China Minzhong’s export processed product..
FIGURE 17. CHINA MINZHONG’S EARNINGS PERFORMANCE FIGURE 18. CHINA MINZHONG GROSS MARGIN PER SEGMENT
SEASONALITY
Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates
We only lower our FY14F-15F NPAT slightly by 8% and 2% down to Rp4,048bn and
Rp5,227bn mostly due to weaker performance from ICBP and higher interest expense
following higher interest bearing debt on higher capex.
FIGURE 20. EBIT MARGIN PER SEGMENT FIGURE 21. TOP LINW GROWTH YOY GROWTH TREND –
AGRIBUSINESS WITNESSED STRONG MOMENTUM
SOTP Valuation
We increase our SOTP TP on INDF by 9.3% up to Rp8,200/share implying 12% upside
potential and 17.8x – 13.7x P/E14F -15F mostly driven by higher valuation from agribusiness
and value lucrative from China Minzhong.
INDF now is trading about 12% discount to its NAV based on our calculation vs the lowest
was at 20.0%. The range of this discount has been quite wide historically, from a premium of
15% to a discount 20%. We believe INDF’s valuation potentially could trade at premium to
NAV (expecting narrowing discounted P/E valuation to ICBP), when INDF’s earnings
outperform ICBP. Currently INDF is still trading attractively at 14.6x – 12.1 P/E14F-15F, about
50% discount to ICBP. We reiterate our Buy rating.
FIGURE 23. INDF’S FORWARD P/E BAND FIGURE 24. INDF NOW IS TRADING AT 13% DISCOUNT TO NAV
PE (x) 35.0%
INDF
30 30.0%
25.0%
25
+1 StDev 20.0%
20
15.0%
15 Mean 10.0%
5.0%
10
-1 StDev 0.0%
5
Dec‐11
Dec‐12
Dec‐13
Aug‐11
Oct‐11
Aug‐12
Oct‐12
Aug‐13
Oct‐13
Apr‐12
Apr‐13
Feb‐12
Feb‐13
Feb‐14
Jun‐11
Jun‐12
Jun‐13
‐5.0%
0 ‐10.0%
Jul-06
Oct-08
Jul-10
Oct-12
Jun-07
Jun-11
Nov-07
Nov-11
Jan-07
Sep-09
Feb-10
Jan-11
Sep-13
Feb-14
May-08
May-12
Mar-09
Mar-13
‐15.0%
‐20.0%
YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F Others 3,747 4,925 5,499 6,251 6,690
Total Liabilities 25,182 39,720 39,390 40,102 39,327
Operating Profit 6,745 6,089 8,244 10,271 10,886
Shareholder's Equity 21,209 23,649 26,471 29,676 32,699
Oth.Recurring Income/(Exp) (436) 277 (945) (846) (729)
Depr & Amort 1,128 2,298 2,654 2,880 3,046
Other Gain / Loss (1,297) (912) (1,427) (1,842) (1,985) Key Ratios
Tax (1,530) (1,252) (1,825) (2,356) (2,539) YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F
Change in Working Capital (138) (1,059) (668) 2 (215) Growth (% YoY)
Other Operating Cash Flow (786) (632) 2,066 (839) (522) Sales 10.4 15.3 22.4 10.1 10.4
Operating Cash Flow 3,687 4,810 8,100 7,270 7,941 EBIT 0.4 (9.7) 35.4 24.6 6.0
Capital Expenditure (4,734) (14,235) (12,398) (3,091) (3,211) EBITDA 2.3 6.5 29.9 20.7 5.9
Free Cash Flow (1,047) (9,425) (4,298) 4,178 4,729 Net Profit 6.0 (23.3) 61.8 29.1 7.8
Other Investing Cash Flow 133 43 33 0 0 Profitability (%)
Cash Flow From Investing (4,601) (14,192) (12,365) (3,091) (3,211) Gross Profit Margin 27.1 24.8 26.4 28.0 27.4
Net Change in Debts 1,637 12,019 (1,781) (186) (1,549) Oper. Margin 13.5 10.5 11.7 13.2 12.7
Equity Funds Raised 88 1,585 24 0 0 EBITDA Margin 15.7 14.5 15.4 16.9 16.2
Other Financing Cash Flow 998 2,968 2,001 2,593 2,424 Net Margin 6.5 4.3 5.7 6.7 6.6
Cash Flow From Financing 1,186 14,944 (1,006) 386 (1,735) ROAA 5.8 3.6 5.1 6.2 6.3
Non-Recurring Income (Exp) 0 (1,700) 0 0 0 ROAE 16.1 11.2 16.2 18.6 18.1
Extraordinaries Income (Exp) 0 0 0 0 0 Leverage
Net Change in Cash 272 3,862 (5,271) 4,564 2,994 Net Debt / Equity (%) 4.2 25.0 30.7 17.5 7.2
Cash at beginning 13,624 13,896 17,757 12,486 17,050 EBITDA / Gross Interest (x) 7.3 7.8 7.1 8.6 9.7
Cash at End 13,896 17,757 12,486 17,050 20,044 Per share data (Rp)
EPS 371.4 285.0 461.0 595.3 641.4
Valuation CFPS 499.9 546.7 763.3 923.3 988.3
YE Dec 2012A 2013A 2014F 2015F 2016F BVPS 2,415.6 2,693.2 3,014.9 3,380.0 3,723.8
PER (x) 19.7 25.7 15.9 12.3 11.4 DPS 175.0 185.5 142.3 230.2 297.2
EV/EBITDA (X) 10.0 10.6 8.6 6.9 6.3
P/BV (X) 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.0
P/CF (X) 14.7 13.4 9.6 7.9 7.4
Dividend Yield (%) 2.4 2.5 1.9 3.1 4.1
RESEARCH
John Rachmat Head of Equity Research, Strategy [email protected] +6221 5296 9542
Tjandra Lienandjaja Banking [email protected] +6221 5296 9617
Handoko Wijoyo Construction, Toll Road [email protected] +6221 5296 9418
Hariyanto Wijaya, CFA, CFP, CA, CPA Plantation, Heavy eq., Energy [email protected] +6221 5296 9553
Herman Koeswanto, CFA Consumer, Poultry [email protected] +6221 5296 9569
Liliana S Bambang Property, Building Material [email protected] +6221 5296 9465
Ariyanto Kurniawan Telecom, Coal & Metal Mining [email protected] +6221 5296 9682
Aldian Taloputra Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9572
Leo Putra Rinaldy Economist [email protected] +6221 5296 9406
Rizky Hidayat Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9415
Vanessa Ariati Tanuwijaya Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9546
Wisnu Trihatmojo Research Assistant [email protected] +6221 5296 9544
INSTITUTIONAL SALES
Lokman Lie Co-Head Institutional Equities [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Silva Halim Co-Head Institutional Equities [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Andrew Handaya Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Cindy Amelia P. Kalangie Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Jane Theodoven Sukardi Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Janefer Amanda Soelaiman Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Karmia Tandjung-Nasution Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Mirna Santikara Salim Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Oos Rosadi Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Vera Ongyono Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Yohan Setio, CFA Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Zahra Aldila Niode Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Kusnadi Widjaja Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375
Edwin Pradana Setiadi Equity Dealing [email protected] +6221 527 5375
RETAIL SALES
Ridwan Pranata Head Retail Equities [email protected] +6221 5296 9514
Boy Triyono Jakarta Branch [email protected] +6221 5296 9436
Yohanes Triyanto Kelapa Gading Branch [email protected] +6221 45845355
Hendra Riady Mangga Dua Branch [email protected] +6221 6230 2333
Umar Abdullah Pondok Indah Branch [email protected] +6221 75918400
Indra Mas’ari Bandung Branch indra.mas’[email protected] +6222 426-5088
Yuri Ariadi Pontianak Branch [email protected] +62561 582292
Ruwie Medan Branch [email protected] +6261 457 1116
INVESTMENT RATINGS: Indicators of expected total return (price appreciation plus dividend yield) within the 12-month period from the date of the the last
published report, are: Buy (10% or higher), Neutral (-10% to10%) and Sell (-10% or lower).
DISCLAIMER: This report is issued by PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchanges (IDX). Although the contents of this document may
represent the opinion of PT. Mandiri Sekuritas, deriving its judgement from materials and sources believed to be reliable, PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other
company in the Mandiri Group cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or any other company in the Mandiri Group may be
involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein to make markets, or have positions in the securities recommended herein. PT. Mandiri Sekuritas or
any other company in the Mandiri Group may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this report. For
further information please contact our number 62-21-5263445 or fax 62-21-5275711.
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION: Each contributor to this report hereby certifies that all the views expressed accurately reflect his or her views about the
companies, securities and all pertinent variables. It is also certified that the views and recommendations contained in this report are not and will not be
influenced by any part or all of his or her compensation.