KING FAHD UNIVERSITY OF PETROLEUM & MINERALS

DEPARTMENT OF MATHEMATICS & STATISTICS

DHAHRAN, SAUDI ARABIA
AS482: Actuarial Contingencies 2 - Term 151 (3-0-3)
Course Objectives:
A continuation of Life Contingencies I. Development is based on a stochastic approach to insurance models.
Major topics include benefit premiums and reserves, and multi-life and multiple-decrement models. Parallel
treatment of topics based on Takaful system. Application of such area in life insurance and property.
Prerequisites: AS 381
Textbook and Package:
1. Cunningham, R.J., Herzog, T.N., & London, R.L. (2012) Models for Quantifying Risk, 5th edition. ACTEX
Publication: Winsted, USA.
2. Texas BAII Plus Calculator or Texas BAII Professional
Reference:
1. Dickson, D.C., Hardy, M. R., & Waters, H. R. (2011) Actuarial Mathematics for Life Contingent Risks. Cambridge
University Press: Cambridge, UK.
2. Bowers N., Gerber, H., Hickman, J., Jones, D. & Nesbitt, C. (1997 or later printing) Actuarial Mathematics, 2nd
edition. Society of Actuaries Publishing.
3. Society of Actuaries regulations and sample exam for MLC

Instructor: Dr. Mohammad H. Omar Office: Bldg – 5, room – 508. Phone: 2471
E-mail: [email protected] (Not by WebCT/Blackboard email)
Office Hours: UTR (10.05-10.50am), UT (1.30pm-2.00pm), and R (12.30pm -2.00pm) or by appointment.
Assessment
Assessment for this course will be based on attendance, homework, term report, 3 major exams and a
comprehensive final exam, as in the following:
Activity Weight
Attendance, homework and Term Paper Report (2%+5%+10%)
Exam 1 (Chapters 3, 5.5, 12, & 13)
20%
Monday (Oct 6– week 6) , 6.00 pm (venue TBA)
Exam 2 (Chapters 6.5, 14 & 15)
20%
Wednesday (Nov 4 - week 10), 6:00 pm (venue TBA)
Exam 3 (Chapters 16 & 17)
18%
Wednesday (Nov 25 - week 13), 6:00 pm (venue TBA)
Final Exam (Comprehensive)
25%
Monday Dec 28 8am (as posted on registrar website)
IMPORTANT NOTE on GRADES: There is no quota on the number of students who can get an A+ or other grades.
 Attendance on time is very important. Mostly, attendance will be checked within the first five minutes of the class. Entering the class
after that, is considered as late (2 lates= 1 Absence) and
 More than 10 minutes late = Absence (regardless of any excuse).
Letter grade A+ A B+ B C+ C D+ D F DN
Cut-off 90% 85% 80% 75% 67% 60% 55% 50% <50% > 9 absences
General Notes:
 Students are required to carry pens, note-taking equipment and a calculator to EVERY lecture and exams. It is strongly
recommended to keep a binder for class-notes.
 Students are also expected to bring the book, take notes and organize their solved questions in a binder for easy retrieval to help them
in study and review for class, exams, etc
o It is to the student’s advantage to keep a binder for storing class notes, homework, and other graded assignments. Students who are
organized will find it easier to find important materials when studying for exams.
 To successfully prepare for the SOA exams, students MUST solve problems regularly and with discipline. The selected assigned
problems are specifically designed to prepare you for major and final exams. So, it is expected that you complete these problems step-
by-step and with comprehension.
 If you happen to stumble upon a solution manual somewhere, remember 2 important points. (1) Due to publishing costs and
deadlines, these solutions are brief and may have mistakes and (2) in your career as an actuary and your exams and quizzes in this
class, you are expected to know every step to a problem and to know if a solution is incorrect. Thus, the best way to solve problem
is without these brief solutions.
 Homework is due on the first Sunday after completing a chapter.
 No late homework will be accepted, and
  Actuaries don’t act like the guy in the cartoon below.

They manage risk . They don’t let risk manage them

 Never round your intermediate results to problems when doing your calculations. This will cause you to lose calculation accuracy.
Your answers may then be different from the SOA exam key even when you use the right procedure.
 For every exam, so you need to bring with you pens, pencils, a sharpener, an eraser, and a SOA approved calculator.
 Students should wait until completion of course AS482 before they attempt to take the professional exam MLC.
Academic Integrity: All KFUPM policies regarding ethics and academic honesty apply to this course.
Student Learning Outcomes: (From the Society of Actuaries Exam MLC) May change in 2014 due to OE format
a) Post-2011 Outcomes (incorporates most of pre-2011 Outcomes) with SOA weights
SOA Learning Outcomes weight Course
1. Describe the common decrements and their application to insurances and annuities. 0-5% AS381
2. Models used to model decrements used in insurances and annuities. 10-20%
a. Calculate single, joint, marginal and conditional probabilities, as applicable and moments for the time-to-decrement, age-at- AS381
decrement and cause-of-decrement random variables based on single decrement on single life models, multiple decrements on
&
single life models and single decrement on multiple lives models.
b. Calculate the probability of being in a particular state and transitioning between states based on continuous-time Markov chain AS482
models, discrete approximations of continuous-time Markov chain models and discrete-time Markov chain models.
3. Calculate present values and accumulated values using non-stochastic interest rate models 0-5% AS381
4. Models used to model cash flows of traditional life insurances and annuities. 15-25%
a. Calculate single, joint, marginal and conditional probabilities, as applicable and moments of the present-value-of-benefits AS381
and present-value-of-premium random variables based on single decrement on single life models, multiple decrements on
&
single life models and single decrement on multiple lives models.
b. Calculate present values of cash flows. AS482
c. Calculate present values of cash flows by redefining the present-value-of-benefit and present-value-of-premium random
variables to Markov chain models
5. Describe how reserves are used as an accounting entry to allocate income over the life of a contract. 0-5%
6. Benefit reserves for traditional life insurances and annuities. 15-25%
a. Calculate moments of the loss-at-issue random and future-loss random variables based on single decrement on single life AS381
models and multiple decrements on single life models.
&
b. State the equivalence principle.
c. Calculate benefit reserves and premium based on single decrement on single life models and multiple decrements on single AS482
life models.
d. Calculate benefit reserves and premium using a Markov chain model with specified cash flows.
7. Models used to model cash flows for non-interest sensitive insurances other than traditional life insurances and 5-15%
annuities
a. Calculate benefit premium and benefit reserves by applying concepts presented for traditional life insurance and annuities for the AS381
loss-at-issue and future loss random variables based on single decrement on single life models, multiple decrements on single & 482
life models, and Markov chain models.
8. Models used to model contract cash flows for basic universal life insurances. Combin AS482
a. Calculate the contract account value and contract surrender value. ed
b. Describe differences between primary and secondary contract guarantees. weight
9. Models used to model cash flows of basic universal life insurance for AS482
a. Calculate probabilities and moments of the present-value-of-benefits, present-value-of-premiums and present-value-of-charges objectiv
random variables based on multiple decrements on single life models. es
b. Calculate present values of cash flows. 8 – 10
c. Redefine the present-value-of-benefit and present-value-of-premium random variables to Markov chain models to calculate
present values of cash flows.
10. Benefit reserves for basic universal life insurances is AS381
a. Calculate the benefit reserve. 0-10% &
b. Describe the calculation of the reserve for a secondary guarantee. AS482
11. Models that consider expense cash flows. 10-25% AS482
a. Calculate an expense factor using the appropriate exposure.
b. Calculate probabilities and moments of the present-value-of-expenses random variable based on single decrement on single life
model and multiple decrements on a single life models.
c. Calculate the expense reserve.
d. Calculate a gross premium given expenses and benefits based on: the equivalence principle; and a return on gross profits basis.
 e. Calculate the gross premium reserve.
f. Calculate the asset share.
g. Calculate expected profit, actual profit, gain, and gain by source.
b) Specific to Pre-2011 MLC Outcomes
1. Calculate considerations (premiums) for life insurances and annuities,
a. using percentiles.
2. Calculate liabilities, analyzing the present-value-of-future-loss random variables:
a. using the prospective method; b. using the retrospective method; c. using special formulas.
3. Using recursion, calculate expected values (reserves) and variances of present-value of future-loss random variables for general
fully-discrete life insurances written on a single life.
Syllabus (Tentative)
Week Sections Topics Notes
1 (Aug. 23- 27) Ch 3 Review of Markov Chains (3-1/2 class).
2 Ch 3 & 5.5 Review of Markov Chains (continued).
(Aug. 30- Sep. 03) Ch 12 Models dependent on Multiple Survivals (Multi-life Models).
Joint-Life Model. The Last Survivor model. Contingent Probability functions.
3 Ch 12 Multi-life Models (continued) Life Tables &
Appendix Contingent Contracts Involving Multi-Life Statuses. General Random Variable Characteristics.
(Sep. 06- 10) A.6 Analysis. Common Shock – A model for lifetime dependency. Multi-State
Model Representation (5.5 & 12.5),
Ch 13 Multiple-Decrement Models. Declare your Term
4
Discrete Multi-Decrement Models. Theory of Competing Risks. Continuous paper topic: Sunday
(Sep. 13- 17) Multi-Decrement Models. Uniform Distribution of Decrements. Sept 13
Sep. 20- 28: Id Al-Adha Vacation
Ch 13 Multiple-Decrement Models. (continued). (2 wks): Midterm grade
Miscellaneous Examples. reports starts
Ch 14 & 6-5 Multiple-Decrement Models (Applications).
5 Actuarial Present Value. Asset Shares. Non-forfeiture Options.
(Sep. 29- Oct. 1) Multi-Stat Model representations, with Illustrations (14.4 & 6.5).
Monday (Oct 6– week 6) – 1st Major Exam (chapters 3, 5.5, 12, & 13)
Multiple-Decrement Models (Applications -continued).
Ch 14 & 6-5 Defined Benefit Pension Plans.
6 Ch 15 Models with Variable Interest Rates
Actuarial PV using Variable Interest. Deterministic Interest Rate Scenarios.
(Oct. 4- 8) Spot Interest Rates & Term Structure of Interest Rates.
7 Models with Variable Interest Rates (continued).
Forward Interest Rates. An Example with Simulated Rates of Return.
(Oct. 11- 15) Ch 15 Transferring the Interest Rate Risk.
8 Universal Life Insurance
Ch 16
(Oct. 18- 22) Basic Aspects. Indexed Universal Life Insurance.
Wednesday (Nov 4 - week 10), 6:00 pm – 2nd Major Exam (chapters 6.5, 14 & 15)
9 Ch 16 Universal Life Insurance
(Oct. 25- 29) Pricing Considerations (including Pricing for Secondary Guarantees).
10 Universal Life Insurance (continued)
Ch 16 Pricing Considerations (including Pricing for Secondary Guarantees).
(Nov.1- 5) Reserving Considerations.
11 Ch 17 Deferred Variable Annuities
(Nov. 8- 12) Background. Deferred Annuity Products. Immediate Annuity Products.
12 Deferred Variable Annuities (continued) Sun Nov 15: Term Paper
Ch 17 Immediate Annuity Products. Pricing Considerations. Reserving Report due to instructor.
(Nov. 15- 19) Considerations.
13 Deferred Variable Annuities (continued)
Ch 17
Reserving Considerations.
MLC manual
(Nov. 22- 26) Miscellaneous Topics. Profit Testing.
Wednesday (Nov 25 - week 13), 6:00 pm - 3rd Major Exam (chapters 16 & 17)
14 MLC manual Miscellaneous Topics. Profit Testing (continued)
& Suppleme
(Nov. 29- Dec. 3) Handout New Participating Insurance
15 Supplemental New Participating Insurance
(Dec. 6- 10) & Review Review
16 Review Review Dec 13: Normal Tuesday
Final Exam (Comprehensive): Monday Dec 28 8am