Household Demand For Meat in Nigeria
Household Demand For Meat in Nigeria
Household Demand For Meat in Nigeria
Olumide Aborisade
Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics
318 Agricultural Sciences Building, Texas Tech University
Email: [email protected]
Carlos E. Carpio
Department of Agriculture and Applied Economics
301 Agricultural Sciences Building, Texas Tech University
Email: [email protected]
Copyright 2017 by Olumide Aborisade and Carlos E. Carpio. All rights reserved. Readers may
make verbatim copies of this document for non‐commercial purposes by any means, provided that
this copyright notice appears on all such copies.
Abstract
This study was an application of the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-
AIDS) model on household aggregate meat demand in Nigeria. The data used was obtained from
the World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) on households in Nigeria.
Previous research had studied demand only at a regional level but this study estimates meat
demand at a national level. The results showed that beef was a necessity while goat, chicken and
mutton were luxuries. The results further revealed that all the meat products considered were
normal goods with own-prices that were negative and consistent with demand theory except
mutton. Goat meat and mutton were price elastic and as such, price changes for these products
will affect their consumers more than consumers of other meat products that were less elastic.
Key words: Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA-AIDS), meat, demand,
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1. Introduction
Several studies on household meat demand have been carried out around the world but
relatively few studies have been carried out on household demand in Nigeria and none in recent
times. This is not indicative of a general lack of interest on the part of scholars in the region.
Partly responsible for this dearth in research would be inadequacies in available data in terms of
breadth, depth and scope. Previous studies on household food demand in Nigeria have been at
the state (regional) level. Examples include demand for cassava products in Lagos State (Jumah
et al., 2008), food demand in Kogi and Kwara states (Obayelu et al., 2009), meat demand in Abia
state (Igwe and Onyekwere, 2007), rural household food demand in Ondo state (Fashogbon and
Food is necessary for human existence and meat plays a key role in that existence. Meat
products are rich sources of nutrients that enable human growth and development. Enriched with
high value biological protein and vitamins, meat facilitates the development of the
gastrointestinal tract, cranio-dental features (teeth, jaw, etc.) and posture (Pereira and Vicente,
2013). Its consumption in adequate quantities ensures normal functioning of the immune system,
In Nigeria, meat, fish and animal products are the fourth most commonly consumed food
group (88.9%) by households. Its consumption lags behind grains and flours (97.2%), oils and
fats (96.8%) and vegetables (96.7%). Compared to other food groups, average weekly household
expenditure was highest for meat, fish and animal products (N1, 359 per week) (National Bureau
of Statistics, 2016). A variety of meat products are purchased and consumed across the country.
The acceptance and popularity of each meat product varies by region. For example, pork is not as
widely accepted in the northern part of the country as it is in the south. This is mostly due to
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religious reasons. The northern population are predominantly Muslims while the southern
This study uses recent household survey data to examine the response of aggregate meat
demand to variations in price and incomes. Household surveys provide the opportunity to test
theories about household behavior and their response to changes in their economic environment
(Deaton, 1997). We analyze meat demand using the linear approximate almost ideal demand
system (LA-AIDS) model. Prior research on this subject have focused on particular regions and
the use of recent country-level data distinguishes this study from others.
The study is organized as follows: section 2 reviews extant literature on food demand;
section 3 explains the AIDS model; section 4 provides information on the data and the
econometric model; section 5 interprets and discusses the results while section 6 concludes.
2. Literature Review
Investigating the demand for various meat products amongst rural and urban households
in Kenya, Bett et al. (2012) surveyed 930 households across six counties and estimated demand
elasticities using the LA-AIDS model. The authors were particularly interested in comparing the
consumption pattern of the indigenous chicken against the exotic chicken, beef, mutton and
“other meat” products. Their keen interest in the indigenous chicken was based on the belief that
it is easily accessible and readily available in rural and urban areas relative to other meat
products. Their results revealed that indigenous chicken, beef and mutton were necessities as
shown by their expenditure elasticities. Furthermore, the indigenous chicken and beef were
substitutes while the indigenous chicken, exotic chicken and goat meat were complements as
shown by the signs of the cross-price elasticities. The socio-demographic factors suggested to
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have a significant effect on meat consumption were household location, family size and
price and quantity were not available in their data and as such they could not impute price
variables for their empirical model but assumed constancy of relative prices. Using a two-step
censored regression technique, they observed various demographic factors affecting meat
expenditures. Their results also revealed that variables such as household size (number of
persons in the household), age, race (black, white or other race), education and region
(Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) had a statistically significant effect on meat expenditures.
Examining consumer demand for cassava food products in Lagos, Nigeria, Jumah et al.
of gari, lafun and fufu (all of which are cassava by-products). They attempted to capture
consumer behavior that might lead to informed policy recommendations and hence potentially
boost productivity, improve food security and reduce poverty through job creation. In order to
accomplish their objective of estimating a separable demand system, they surveyed 300
households residing in Lagos State. Employing a LA-AIDS model, and assuming weak
separability, they estimated a separable demand system for these food products. Their results
provides evidence that characteristics such as religion and residential area (that is, whether or not
the household resided in a low or high income area) explained the variations in the consumption
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Estimating household meat demand at both the aggregate (beef, lamb, pork, chicken) and
disaggregate levels (beef, lamb, fresh pork, ham, bacon, chicken) in Australia, Cashin (1991),
employed the LA-AIDS model. As commonly observed in household studies were incomplete
data often leads to exclusion of food items, fish and mutton were excluded from their analysis
due to data unavailability and reliability. Although all the elasticities were of the appropriate
sign, their results revealed large differences in numerical values of cross-price elasticities as well
aggregated product level, beef and lamb were price elastic (absolute value greater than one)
while pork and chicken were inelastic and gross substitutes. At the disaggregated level, fresh
pork and ham were price elastic while beef, lamb, bacon and chicken were inelastic.
Furthermore, fresh pork and chicken were gross complements. Such that if demand increases for
Household surveys that contain information on expenditures and quantities of food items
purchased but lacking price information have resulted in a number of approaches to compensate
for the lack of price data in the estimation of a demand system. (Castellón et al., 2015) used
budget shares and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to construct Stone-Lewbel (SL) price indices that
could be used to estimate a demand system where prices were absent. They further evaluated the
likelihood of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) influencing estimated marginal effects and
elasticities. They found that the observed variations in the Stone-Lewbel prices were as a result
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3. Conceptual Framework
The model used here is the linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA-AIDS)
which is more frequently used due to its ease of estimation than the almost ideal demand system
(AIDS). The AIDS model is a flexible system of demand equations developed by (Deaton and
Muellbauer, 1980). These demand equations exhibit a linear relationship between the budget
shares of commodities, real total expenditure and relative prices. The AIDS model itself belongs
difficulty in estimating the AIDS model due to the non-linear price index gave rise to the LA-
AIDS model (see e.g. Blanciforti and Green 1983 and Alston et al., 1994).
where 𝑤𝑖 is the budget share of good 𝑖, 𝑝𝑗 is the price of good j, 𝑥 is the total expenditure, 𝜀𝑖 ’s
1
(2) ln 𝑃 = 𝛼0 + ∑𝑘 𝛼𝑘 ln 𝑝𝑘 + 2 ∑𝑗 ∑𝑘 𝛾𝑘𝑗 ln𝑝𝑘 ln𝑝𝑗 k = 1,…,n
where 𝑝𝑘 is the price of good k and 𝛾𝑘𝑗 are the parameters to be estimated.
Replacing the price index in (2) with Stone’s price index ((𝑃∗ ) gives rise to the linear
approximate almost ideal demand system (LA-AIDS) which is simpler and more frequently used
than the non-linear AIDS as we mentioned earlier. Stone’s Price Index is given by
(3) ln 𝑃∗ = ∑𝑤𝑘 ln 𝑝𝑘
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The following restrictions are imposed on the parameters of the AIDS model:
Provided equations (4), (5) and (6) hold, the AIDS model given in equation (1) represents a
system of demand functions that add up to total expenditure (∑ 𝑤𝑖 = 1), are homogenous of
degree zero in prices and total expenditure, and satisfy Slutsky’s symmetry.
Studies on household demand assume a multistage budgeting process within the household and
weak separability. That is, a household first allocates its income across broad food and non-food
categories then further allocates its income amongst items in each category We assume that the
meat group is weakly separable from other food and commodity groups. This assumption allows
us to limit the number of prices appearing in each equation to the four products in the meat group
4. Empirical Analysis
Data
The data used in this study is cross-sectional data obtained from the Nigerian General
Household Survey (GHS) which was implemented between 2015 -2016. The data collection
process was a team effort between the Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Federal
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the World Bank’s Living Standards
including age, marital status, religion, education, illnesses, disability, child anthropometrics,
consumption, food security and shocks and several other aspects of household living.
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Respondents were drawn from each of the thirty-seven states in Nigeria. There were ten
households in each enumeration area (EA or primary sampling unit) and each state had sixty
enumeration areas. The total number of enumeration areas for all thirty-seven states in the
Regarding food unit measures, respondents were allowed to report purchase and
consumption in units that they were most familiar with. We estimated kilogram-equivalent
measures for responses on meat products reported in non-standard units using the national
conversion factor for these non-standard measurements. However, conversion factors for meat
products was unavailable. Rather than dropping these observations, we adopted the conversion
factors for fresh fish since those were available and were the closest proxies we could use for
meat. In some instances, households had reported conflicting measures for purchase and
consumption. For example, if a household reported the quantity of beef purchased in terms of
heap small and reported the quantity consumed in kilograms, we converted heap small to
kilograms.
values. According to Nayga (1995) and Deaton (1997), the proportion of the sample with zero
the need to have sufficient information on both quantity and expenditures that could be
estimated, we selected four meat products (beef, goat, chicken and mutton) for demand
estimation. These products had more observations than other meat products - some of which had
less than five observations. We excluded pork, bush meat (wild game meat), duck and canned
beef. Households that reported no information on quantity purchased and expenditure for all four
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meat products were dropped. We retained those that had information on at least one of the four
meat products.
Price information was not included in the survey. We estimated unit values for each meat
product by dividing the expenditures on that product by its purchased quantity. We regressed
these unit values on variables region and sector (rural or urban) in order to impute the prices. The
imputed prices account for household price variability according to region and sector. Since
information on the time (day, week or month) the survey was conducted was unavailable, we
could not account for price variations according to day, week or month.
The sample size for this study was 4, 580 households. Controlling for households with no
information on purchase, consumption and expenditure reduced our sample size to 2, 412.
Dropping households that failed to report expenditure information may cause self-selection bias.
To assess this, we compared the means of the variables used in the analyses with and without the
dropped observations and it was not significantly different (see Nayga, 1995). The variables used
in this study include region, sector, prices and quantities purchased of beef, chicken, goat meat,
Econometric Model
The econometric model used is the LA-AIDS model with Stone’s price index given by
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where ̅̅̅
𝑤𝑖 indicates the sample mean of the budget share of good i, 𝑥̅ is the sample mean of the
log of real total expenditures. According to Green and Alston (1990), the expenditure,
uncompensated and compensated elasticities for the LA-AIDS model are given by
Expenditure Elasticity:
𝛽
(9) 𝑒𝑖 = 1 + 𝑤𝑖
𝑖
𝛾𝑖𝑗 𝛽𝑖 𝛼𝑗 𝛽
(10) 𝜂𝑖𝑗 = −𝛿𝑖𝑗 + − − 𝑤𝑖 ∑𝑘 𝛾𝑘𝑗 𝑙𝑛 𝑃𝑘
𝑤𝑖 𝑤𝑖 𝑖
where 𝛿𝑖𝑗 is the Kronecker delta that is unity if i=j and zero otherwise
Substituting for 𝜂𝑖𝑗 in the Slutsky equation we get the compensated elasticities(𝜂𝑖𝑗 ∗ ). The
𝛽
(11) 𝜂𝑖𝑗 ∗ = 𝜂𝑖𝑗 + 𝑤𝑗 (1 + 𝑤𝑖 )
𝑖
𝛾𝑖𝑗 𝛽𝑖 𝛼𝑗 𝛽 𝛽𝑖
(12) 𝜂𝑖𝑗 ∗ = −𝛿𝑖𝑗 + − − 𝑤𝑖 ∑𝑘 𝛾𝑘𝑗 ln 𝑃𝑘 + 𝑤𝑗 (1 + 𝑤 )
𝑤𝑖 𝑤𝑖 𝑖 𝑖
Parameter estimates and elasticities were estimated using the iterated seemingly unrelated
Table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of the variables used in this study. Regarding the
quantity purchased of each meat product, beef was the highest (1935kg) followed by goat
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(554kg) then chicken (404kg) and mutton (361). In terms of price, beef was the most expensive
(N1253.89/kg) followed by chicken (N980.81/kg) and mutton was the least expensive
(N712.02/kg).
Table 2 presents the parameter estimates of the LA-AIDS model. The estimates were
estimated with restrictions of homogeneity and symmetry imposed. These restrictions were not
satisfied. Ten of the fourteen parameter estimates were statistically significant. The own-price
coefficient of beef (0.0867) in the beef equation means that a percent increase in the price of beef
would increase the household’s budget share for beef by approximately N0.09 (Nine kobo). The
own-price coefficient of goat meat (-0.2560) in the goat equation indicates that a percent increase
in the price of goat meat would decrease the household’s budget share for goat meat by
Table 3 presents the uncompensated (Marshallian) own and cross-price elasticities. Three of
the four own-price elasticities had the expected negative sign and is consistent with demand
theory. Mutton has a positive own-price elasticity. This suggests that an increase in its price
increases its demand. This result was consistent with a similar study on meat demand in Nigeria.
Adetunji and Rauf (2012) reported a positive own-price elasticity for mutton in their study on
household demand for meat in Southwest Nigeria. It had a positive sign and it was greater than
one. Mutton is a good source of lean meat but not as regularly consumed like beef, goat and
chicken. In addition to that, Muslims in Nigeria use it to celebrate the festival Id-el-Kabir.
During this festive period, price for mutton increases. As such, the price increase is seasonal.
The own-price elasticity for goat and mutton were greater than one in absolute value
indicating price elastic demands while beef and chicken were price inelastic. Variations in the
price of goat or mutton would affect its consumers more than consumers of beef and chicken.
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Three of the four expenditure elasticities were greater in absolute value than their corresponding
own-price elasticities. The positive expenditure elasticities for all the meat types indicate they
were normal goods, these elasticities were also significant at the 1% level. The expenditure
elasticity also reveals that with the exception of beef which is a necessity ( 𝜂𝑖 = −0.8191), all
the other meat types were luxuries1 ( 𝜂𝑖 > 1). Among the luxury meats, chicken had the highest
expenditure elasticity (𝜂𝑖 = 2.0266). While beef and goat meat were gross substitutes, beef and
Table 4 presents the compensated own and cross-price elasticities. Again, with the
exception of mutton, own-price elasticities for beef, goat and chicken were negative, consistent
with the inverse relationship between price and demand. All pairs of goods were substitutes
except beef and chicken, beef and mutton and chicken and mutton.
In this study, the linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA-AIDS) has been used to
estimate aggregate demand for meat products in Nigeria using household survey data from the
World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Study. Three of the four own-price elasticities
were negative and consistent with demand theory. Mutton had a positive own-price effect which
is consistent with similar studies. The results suggest that all the meat products considered were
normal goods as revealed in their positive expenditure elasticities. Our results indicate that beef
is a necessity and also suggest that goat and mutton are price sensitive. Hence, policies that cause
variations in the prices of goat and mutton would potentially cause welfare distortions.
1
Blanciforti and Green (1983) explain that negative 𝛽𝑖′ 𝑠 indicate necessities while positive 𝛽𝑖′ 𝑠 indicate luxuries. A
negative 𝛽𝑖 implies that 𝜂𝑖 < 1 while a positive 𝛽𝑖 implies that 𝜂𝑖 > 1.
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Some of the limitations of this research were due to the proportion of missing
variables as well as model expenditures on meat products at a disaggregated level. This will
enable all stakeholders in the meat industry capture the various factors affecting household
expenditures.
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References
15
National Bureau of Statistics. (2016). LSMS - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture General
Household Survey Panel 2015/2016. Nigerian National Bureau of Statistics.
Nayga, Jr. R. M. (1995). "Microdata Expenditure Analysis of Disaggregate Meat Products."
Review of Agricultural Economics, 17(3), 275-285.
Obayelu, A. E., V. O. Okoruwa and O. I. Y. Ajani. (2009). "Cross-sectional Analysis of Food
Demand in the North Central Nigeria." China Agricultural Economic Review, 173 -193.
Pereira, P. M. C. C and A. F. R. B Vicente. (2013). "Meat Nutritional Composition and Nutritive
Role in the Human Diet." Meat Science, 93, 586-592.
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Table 1: Descriptive Statistics of Variables used in the LA-AIDS Model
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Table 2: Parameter Estimates of the LA-AIDS Model
Meat
𝛼𝑖 𝛾𝑖1 𝛾𝑖2 𝛾𝑖3 𝛾𝑖4 𝛽𝑖
Products
Beef 0.6776* 0.0867* 0.0281 -0.0155 -0.0993* -0.1272*
(w1) (0.0102) (0.0184) (0.0148) (0.0104) (0.0101 (0.0104)
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Table 3: Uncompensated Expenditure and Price Elasticities in the LA-AIDS Model
Meat 𝜀𝑖𝐵 𝜀𝑖𝐺 𝜀𝑖𝐶 𝜀𝑖𝑀 𝜂𝑖
Products
-0.5864* 0.0427 -0.1205* -0.1550* 0.8191*
Beef
(0.0442) (0.0230) (0.0194) (0.0161) (0.0147)
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Table 4: Compensated Expenditure and Price Elasticities in the LA-AIDS Model
Meat 𝜀𝑖𝐵 𝜺𝒊𝑮 𝜺𝒊𝑪 𝜺𝒊𝑴 𝜼𝒊
Products
Beef -0.0103 0.1562* -0.0495** -0.0963* 0.8191*
(0.0363) (0.0236) (0.0201) (0.0164) (0.0147)
Note: One asterisk (*) indicates significance at the 1% level and two asterisks (**) indicates
significance at the 5% level. Values in parentheses are the standard errors. Elasticities are
calculated from equations (9), and (11) for expenditure (𝜂𝑖 ) and compensated own - (𝜀𝑖𝑖 ) and
cross-price (𝜀𝑖𝑗 ) elasticities respectively.
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