Strategic Analysis

ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rsan20

Impact of COVID-19 on the UN Sustainable

Development Goals (SDGs)

Md. Manuar Mukarram

To cite this article: Md. Manuar Mukarram (2020): Impact of COVID-19 on the UN Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs), Strategic Analysis, DOI: 10.1080/09700161.2020.1788363

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2020.1788363

Published online: 10 Sep 2020.

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Strategic Analysis, 2020
https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2020.1788363

Commentary
Impact of COVID-19 on the UN Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs)

Md. Manuar Mukarram

T he global onslaught of COVID-19 pandemic continues as uncertainty swirls

around the global economy signalling a slowdown. It is still uncertain how long
it will take to arrest the spread of the pandemic and normalcy to be restored. Under
the prevailing situation, health has rightly been on the top of the agenda of all the
countries which would require scaling up the available health facilities for a robust
response. Experts say, until there is a medical solution in the form of vaccine to
COVID-19, the health issues will remain the top priority for the governments.
Since its outbreak in early January 2020 in China’s Wuhan, the virus known as
COVID-19, has rapidly spread to around 215 countries and territories, emerging as an
unprecedented health crisis not only of our times but also in the entire history of the
world, taking a heavy toll on human lives seriously impacting on the livelihood. Almost
every corner of the world is being affected by this pandemic severely impacting the
global health system as well as the world economy. As of June 22, 2020, 9.17 million
people have tested COVID-19 positive, of which 0.47 million have died, while
4.90 million have recovered and the rest 3.79 million are still fighting the menace.1
Primarily a health crisis is now rapidly turning into an economic crisis due to the
unprecedented restrictions on the movement of people as well as economic activities in the
form of worldwide lockdown. No vaccine has yet been developed by the medical experts
for the pandemic and social distancing is still found to be the only way to fight the virus.
As a result we have seen worldwide lockdown and naturally, it is having serious negative
impact on the economic activities worldwide. A parallel debate is, therefore, on: How to
‘cure’ the world economy that has already been ‘infected’ by COVID-19. Though
countries are reopening slowly with caution, the restrictions in varying degrees are
expected to be in place for some time more further impacting the economies.

Socio-economic impacts of COVID-19

There is no doubt that the outbreak will have deep and lasting socio-economic impacts in
every corner of the globe. Many international organizations and research bodies have
published their forecast on possible socio-economic impacts of this pandemic.

Md. Manuar Mukarram is a mid-career Bangladeshi diplomat by profession and an economist by

training. He has served in the Multilateral Economic Affairs Wing of the Foreign Ministry of
Bangladesh and in the Bangladesh Mission at New Delhi. He is currently serving in the Bangladesh
Mission at Toronto. The views expressed are the author’s own.

© 2020 Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses

2 Manuar Mukarram

● According to the United Nations report on World Economic Situation and

Prospects as of mid-2020, the global economy could contract sharply by
3.20 per cent in 2020, with not much hope for strong rebound in the
next year. The projection for cumulative output losses during the next two
years is US $ 8.5 trillion, which is equivalent to all output gains of the previous
four years. World trade could drop as much as 15 per cent in 2020 due to sharp
fall in global demand and disruptions in the established global supply chains.2
Depending on the duration of the worldwide lockdown and restrictions on
economic activities, output loss could further exacerbate.
● A World Bank analysis has argued that depending on the scale of the economic
shock, COVID-19 is likely to push about 40–60 million people into extreme
poverty, with the best estimate being 49 million. In the worst case scenario,
global poverty in 2020 could slide back to the level of 2017, eliminating last
three years’ progress in fighting extreme poverty.3
● The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that already 170 countries have
been facing shrinking GDP per capita and even a short-lived outbreak would
cause a 3.0 per cent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction globally.
While the devastation of the pandemic is expected to calm down within
2020, however, a reappearance of COVID-19 in 2021 could have further
deteriorating impact on the world economy.4
● The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has predicted that the COVID-19 pan­
demic could cost the global economy between US $ 5.8 trillion and US $ 8.8
trillion, or 6.4 per cent to 9.70 per cent of global GDP. Global employment
could fall by between 158 million and 242 million jobs.5

These are just citations of few forecasts till date. Depending on the evolving
scenario in the coming days, there might be new forecasts. However, as it stands
now, all these forecasts are enough to understand that the progress made in the
preceding years in addressing poverty, hunger, inequality, good health, and
well-being would slide back substantially and might face serious setbacks in the
coming months and years. We have seen immediate action worldwide on the
economic front largely being centred on welfare measures to meet the basic needs
of the most vulnerable ones, ensuring a social safety net, and declaring stimulus
packages. A major thrust of the planning has been getting the economy back on track
presumably by addressing the issues of growth, poverty and inequality, employment
generation, business, trade and investment etc.

Focus should be on the overall achievement of SDGs

While all these ongoing efforts on the economic front seem to be very much rational,
the world however, must not lose sight of the UN Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs), which are based on 17 goals and 169 targets. The pandemic is very much
poised to impact the SDGs in various degrees in different parts of the world, which
in turn will have bigger ramifications on the economy, society, and the environment.
So, the world must take a holistic and all-encompassing approach with an eye to the
overall achievement of SDGs while reformulating the short-term and mid-term
policies during and the post-COVID period.
 Strategic Analysis 3

Sustainable development goals

As was agreed at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development
or Rio+20 (Rio de Janeiro, June 2012), the ‘Agenda 2030’ commonly known
as ‘Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)’ was adopted in September 2015
by the 193 member states of the United Nations, following a more than three-
year long process of intergovernmental negotiation on the Post-2015
Development Agenda. This post-MDG development outcome framework called
‘Transforming Our World: The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’
features 17 interconnected goals, referred to as UN Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets, which were basically the successors to the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), aiming at ending poverty, promoting
prosperity and people’s well-being while protecting the environment for next
15 years (2016–2030).
Prior to that, MDGs were set in 2000, as the development agenda for the world
consisting eight (8) targets, aimed at combating poverty, for the period of 2000–2015.
While MDGs were mainly for the developing countries and poverty-centric develop­
ment goals, the SDGs emerged as universally applicable for all countries in the world
and they accounted for all aspects/pillars of development e.g., social, economic and
environmental. All the 193 countries have unanimously committed to adhere to and
implement the SDGs throughout its 15-year lifespan up to 2030. The 17 goals are as
follows6:

GOAL 1: No Poverty
GOAL 2: Zero Hunger
GOAL 3: Good Health and Well-being
GOAL 4: Quality Education
GOAL 5: Gender Equality
GOAL 6: Clean Water and Sanitation
GOAL 7: Affordable and Clean Energy
GOAL 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth
GOAL 9: Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure
GOAL 10: Reduced Inequality
GOAL 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities
GOAL 12: Responsible Consumption and Production
GOAL 13: Climate Action
GOAL 14: Life Below Water
GOAL 15: Life on Land
GOAL 16: Peace and Justice Strong Institutions
GOAL 17: Partnerships to achieve the Goals

Although these goals are often considered successors of the MDGs, SDGs are
fundamentally different than the MDGs in the sense that these are considerably
robust, inter-linked, based on a framework of three pillars of sustainability
(Economic, Social and Environmental). These new goals are built on the core
principles: ‘leaving no one behind’, ‘inclusiveness’ and ‘multi-stakeholder partner­
ships’, emphasizing a holistic approach to achieving sustainable development
for all.
4 Manuar Mukarram

Impact of COVID-19 on sustainable development goals

While in these years since 2015, the world has seen some good progress in terms of
success in the achievement of SDGs, this pandemic will clearly have an adverse
impact on the momentum of achievement. There may not be enough concrete
research outcomes about the exact impact of COVID-19 on SDGs, however, the
possible impact of COVID-19 on the SDGs could be three-fold:
First, it will erase some of the commendable achievements made so far regarding
some goals which have been directly affected;
Second, it will slow down the progress of some other goals in the coming months
due to resetting of priorities; and
Third, resources might be reallocated to the immediate priority sectors.
All these might cause delays in the achievement of SDGs; some analysts are even
foreseeing a re-evaluation of the timeline for achieving SDGs. COVID-19 has shown how
a common global challenge can have differential impacts on different countries/regions based
on their socio-economic realities. The least developed and developing countries, landlocked
developing countries, small island states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa are likely to
suffer the most. Of them, the poor and the middle class will be hit hard. The marginal groups
—women, migrants, low-skilled and low-wage informal workers are the worst sufferers.
Undoubtedly, COVID-19 has come as a big blow to the core principles of the concept of
Sustainable Development: ‘inclusiveness’ and ‘leaving no one behind’.
As far as the 17 goals are concerned, the impact can be of two types: explicit and
implicit. The goals which are most likely to be explicitly affected are: GOAL 1: No
Poverty; GOAL 2: Zero Hunger; GOAL 3: Good Health and Well-being; GOAL 4:
Quality Education; GOAL 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth; GOAL 10:
Reduced Inequality; and GOAL 12: Responsible Consumption and Production.
Various forecasts cited in para-2 are clear indications to that.
Some goals might suffer implicitly due to divergence in the priorities in view of the extra
weight that needs to be accorded to the health sector. These are: GOAL 5: Gender Equality;
GOAL 6: Clean Water and Sanitation; GOAL 7: Affordable and Clean Energy; GOAL 9:
Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure; GOAL 11: Sustainable Cities and Communities;
GOAL 13: Climate Action; GOAL 14: Life Below Water; GOAL 15: Life on Land; GOAL
16: Peace and Justice Strong Institutions. According to a section of the analysts, restrictions
on worldwide economic activities might lead to some relief therefore making some improve­
ments related to SDG no 13, 14 and 15. These, however, may not be enough to compensate
substantially for the overall impact. The left alone goal, ‘Goal-17: PARTNERSHIPS TO
ACHIEVE THE GOALS’ would be instrumental for consolidating global efforts in the post-
COVID period to recover from the losses in the SDGs and regain the momentum.

Financing the SDGs in the post-COVID period

Financing always remains a prime concern for implementation of any development
agenda, and SDGs are no exception. An estimate says that even before the current global
pandemic started, the financing gap to achieve the SDGs by 2030 was US $ 2.5 trillion
per year.7 Undoubtedly, COVID-19 would create additional pressure and add to the
existing financing gap as the countries would face a financial crunch in the post-COVID
period. Again, priority sectors like health, agriculture, etc. would need increased alloca­
tion, which would mean that other sectors which are equally important would lag behind.
 Strategic Analysis 5

A lot will depend on how the challenges associated with the potential sources of
development finance, e.g., flow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), remittances, foreign
aid and official development assistance (ODA), savings etc. are overcome during
economic slowdown. All these would require redoubled efforts and innovative
approaches by the governments worldwide to search for new sources of funds, apart
from the traditional sources to achieve the SDGs on time.

Way forward
So, what are our major lessons from this pandemic and how do we proceed from
here vis-a-vis sustainable development?
First and foremost, the world must take lessons from this crisis and envisage building
more resilient and stronger societies to absorb such external shocks in future so that
there is no further hindrance to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda (SDGs).
Second: A thorough assessment of, and research on, how far the pandemic is going
to affect the achievement of SDGs in the short, medium, and long run and formula­
tion of a clear roadmap for recovery are needed.
Third: ‘Shared responsibility’, ‘global solidarity’ and ‘acting together’ should be the
basic principles for responding to the socio-economic challenges posed by COVID-
19, and the world must learn from this human crisis to ‘build back better’, rightly
identified by the UN in its recent report on COVID-19 impact.8
Fourth: Redefining the roles of different stakeholders within the ‘New Normal’: the
responsibilities have to be extended from the governments to the international
community, multilateral organizations, private sector, civil society and even indivi­
duals, if we want to put up an effective and meaningful fight against the pandemic
and its effect on sustainable development goals.
Fifth: COVID-19 has shown how small-scale humanitarian and philanthropic
approaches at the micro-level can have a huge impact in fighting the challenges in
difficult times, particularly in terms of resource mobilization. We need to translate
the same spirit in our approach towards achieving the SDGs in the post-COVID
period.
Sixth: In keeping with the core principle of the SDGs, the world must continue
taking special care of the most marginal and vulnerable segment of the society to
ensure ‘no one is left behind’.

‘Behavioural change’ would be crucial

The basic underlying principle of any economic decision is that every person will take
a decision which will maximize one’s personal satisfaction or utility and a decision which is
purely ‘rational’; in other words, indicating that decisions would be made by human beings
entirely based on ‘self-interest’, and not having been guided by one’s ‘emotion’ and ‘care
for others’! Contrary to this, the behavioural economists explain human behaviour through
the lens of social preferences and do recognize ‘emotion’ and other human factors in taking
economic decisions. Humans do not only care for their own interests, but also the well-
6 Manuar Mukarram

being of others; they can be ‘selfless’, they can be ‘responsible’! Perhaps, during this
COVID-19 crisis, the word ‘responsible’ has become more apt and relevant, if not the
most, in our common fight against a global common challenge. COVID-19 has come as an
eye-opener for us. So, it is high time we fought together in the ‘most’ ‘responsible’ manner
than ever before. As we gradually move forward and adjust with the ‘New Normal’ in the
post-COVID period, we must also define the new normal of being ‘responsible’ to achieve
the SDGs within the timeframe. ‘Behavioral change on a global scale’ would be crucial to
this effect. While we maintain distance physically, we should reconnect our minds and act
together.

Conclusion
The COVID-19 has come as the biggest shock for the decade to start with vis-à-vis
accelerated efforts for achieving the SDGs. This year could have been the defining one
as the beginning of the ‘decade of action’, as has been sketched by the UN Secretary-
General in January 2020 with the most urgent initiatives for implementation of the SDGs.
With just 10 years to go, our efforts must not be defeated by the pandemic; rather we should
derive strength and courage from this. One thing we have seen through this pandemic is
that countries and societies now seem to be more connected than ever before in their
common fight against a common global challenge. Capitalizing on this renewed unity, we
need to reflect on ‘Goal-17: PARTNERSHIPS TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS’, to reformu­
late our strategy in participation with all the stakeholders, e.g., governments, the interna­
tional community, multilateral organizations, private sector, civil society, individuals, and
philanthropic minds to deliver the 2030 promise. While we focus on strengthening the
health sector and reviving our economies in the pandemic days, we must not take our eyes
away from our commitment to the achievement of SDGs.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes
1. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries.
2. “World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) mid-2020 Report”, United Nations
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, May 13, 2020.
3. Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Christoph Lakner, R. Andres Castaneda Aguilar, Haoyu Wu, “The
Impact of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) on Global Poverty: Why Sub-Saharan Africa Might be the
Region Hardest Hit”, World Bank Blog, April 20, 2020.
4. Ben Winck, “The IMF Says its Forecast for the COVID-19 Recession Might Now be too
Optimistic”, World Economic Forum, April 18, 2020.
5. Asian Development Bank Press Release, May 15, 2020.
6. UN website: www.un.org.
7. Daniel F. Runde, Christopher Metzger, and Hareem F. Abdullah, “Covid-19 Demands
Innovative Ideas for Financing the SDGs”, CSIS Briefs, May 2020.
8. Press Release by the United Nations on its new Report on “Shared Responsibility, Global Solidarity:
Responding to the Socio-economic Impacts of COVID-19”, New York, March 31, 2020.