BGR Upside Buy Reco
BGR Upside Buy Reco
BGR Upside Buy Reco
growth rate of 4%), we value BGR at Rs715 (25% lower than earlier target
price of Rs950) implying 14.4x FY12 P/E. Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Exhibit 1: Key financials
Year to March (Rsmn) FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E FY13E
Operating income 19,303 30,734 47,194 59,651 72,049
EBITDA 2,089 3,442 5,268 6,554 7,887
Net profit 1,154 2,013 3,112 3,594 4,217
EPS (Rs) 16.0 28.0 43.1 49.8 58.5
RoE (%) 22.1 31.6 37.3 32.6 29.7
P/E (x) 31.9 18.3 11.9 10.3 8.8
P/BV (x) 6.5 5.2 3.9 3.0 2.3
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research
Ambit Capital and / or its affiliates do and seek to do business including investment banking with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Ambit
Capital may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
BGR Energy Systems
Exhibit 2: Whilst execution continues to be strong… Exhibit 3: …order intake has been dismal
(Rs mn)
10,000
(x)
8,000 60,000 3
100%
6,000 40,000 2
4,000 50% 20,000 1
2,000
0 0
0 0%
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) Order backlog (LHS) Order book coverage TTM (RHS)
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research Source: Company, Ambit Capital research
Rs mn 3Q11 3Q10 YoY Growth 9M11 9M10 YoY growth 3Q11E Divergence (%)
Net sales 12,511 6,351 97% 32,902 14,122 133% 10,748 16%
Raw materials 10,101 4,964 103% 26,744 11,045 142% 8,835 14%
Employee cost 415 317 31% 1,078 772 39% 363 14%
Other expenses 581 356 63% 1,337 594 125% 371 57%
Total Expenditure 11,097 5,637 97% 29,159 12,412 135% 9,568 16%
EBITDA 1,414 714 98% 3,744 1,710 119% 1,180 20%
Other income 75 37 101% 158 181 -13% 17 335%
Depreciation 34 24 43% 98 67 46% 36 -4%
Interest 168 93 81% 422 419 1% 142 18%
PBT 1,287 635 103% 3,382 1,404 141% 1,020 26%
Tax 411 216 91% 1124 477 135% 347 19%
PAT 876 419 109% 2,259 927 144% 673 30%
Tax rate 32% 34% 33% 34% 34%
Change in estimates
In light of the scanty order inflows, we downgrade our FY12 order intake
assumptions by 21% to Rs87bn. This, coupled with the delay in receipt of
Rajasthan order (we now expect this order to come in 4QFY11 instead of earlier
3QFY11), results in us downgrading our FY12 sales and earnings estimates by 5%
and 6% respectively.
Key Assumptions
We now expect BGR to report revenue and profit CAGR of 32.8% and 28.0% over
FY10-13 driven by the assumptions shown in the table below.
For FY11, our headline numbers are broadly in-line with street estimates.
However, for FY12 our earnings estimates are 5% ahead of consensus. This could
be because of our higher order inflow assumptions or better order book execution
rate compared to consensus (note for FY12, we have assumed order inflows and
bill to book ratio of ~Rs87bn and 0.4 respectively).
EPS (Rs)
FY11E 42.4 43.1 2%
FY12E 47.6 49.8 5%
Source: Bloomberg, Ambit Capital research
Valuation
Absolute valuation
Given the delays that BGR is facing in winning new orders, we now value BGR
using a free cash flow to firm (FCFF) model (note we earlier used to value BGR
using a P/E multiple). Our FCFF metric is ’cash profit – increase in working capital –
capex requirements’. Our FCFF model has following distinct phases:
FY11-14: We do explicit valuation until FY14 assuming: (i) revenues will grow
at a CAGR of 28% over FY10-14 (FY08-10 CAGR has been 42%); and (ii) EBIT
margins would stabilize at ~10.4% by FY14 from current levels of 10.9%.
FY15-20: During this period, we assume that: (i) revenues will grow at a
CAGR of 10% over FY14-20; and (ii) EBIT margins would stabilize at ~10.0%.
From FY21: FCFF would grow at a CAGR of 4%.
Based on these assumptions and assuming a weighted average cost of capital of
11.5%, our FCFF model values BGR at Rs715 per share (implied valuation of 14.4x
FY12 P/E). We maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock, with a revised
Target Price of Rs715 (Rs950), implying 40% upside.
4,000 16%
2,000 11%
(Rs mn)
-
6%
(2,000)
(4,000) 1%
(6,000) -4%
FY11E
FY12E
FY13E
FY14E
FY15E
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
FY19E
FY20E
PVCF (LHS) ROCE (RHS) WACC (RHS)
Relative valuation
At 512, BGR trades at ~10.3x FY12 P/E which is at a discount of 50%+ compared
to larger peers in the capital goods space. Post the recent correction (32% in the
last three month) the discount to larger peers has doubled to 50% from historical
average of 20-25% since listing. Whilst we can see the grounds for BGR to trade at
a discount to Tier 1 players like BHEL and Thermax, we believe that the current
discount of ~50% is too high, given BGR’s stellar RoEs (average RoE of 34% v/s
24% for peers) and superior earnings growth rate (34% CAGR over FY10-12 v/s
24% for peers).
70
60
50
40
30
23.2
20
14.5
10
5.8
0
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
Sensitivity Analysis
We have assumed that BGR will We have assumed that BGR will We have assumed that BGR will
incrementally bag 1,320MW of BoP incrementally bag 1,320MW of BoP incrementally bag 1,320MW of BoP
and 1,980MW of EPC orders per and 1,320MW of EPC orders per and 660MW of EPC orders per
Revenue growth annum over FY12-14, translating annum over FY12-14, translating annum over FY12-14, translating
into revenue CAGR of 36% over into revenue CAGR of 28% over into revenue CAGR of 19% over
FY10-14. Thereafter we model FY10-14. Thereafter we model FY10-14. Thereafter we model
revenue CAGR of 12.5% over FY14- revenue CAGR of 10.0% over FY14- revenue CAGR of 7.5% over FY14-
20. 20. 20.
We model EBIT margins to gradually We model EBIT margins to gradually We model EBIT margins to gradually
decline from 10.8% in FY11 to decline from 10.8% in FY11 and decline from 10.8% in FY11 to
Operating
10.6% in FY14 and consequently stabilize around 10% over the long 10.2% in FY14 and consequently
Margins
stabilize around 10.3% over the long term. stabilize around 9.8% over the long
term. term.
We model working capital cycle on We model working capital cycle of We model working capital cycle on
an average of ~88 days over FY11- ~90 days over FY11-14. an average of ~92 days over FY11-
Working capital
14. Subsequently, we model this to Subsequently, we model this to 14. Subsequently, we model this to
cycle
gradually reduce and stabilize gradually reduce and stabilize gradually stabilize around 80 days
around 66 days over the long term. around 73 days over the long term. over the long term.
Fair value
1,010 715 477
(Rs/share)
Source: Company, Ambit Capital research
Key Risks
Given the current political impasse in Delhi, the biggest risk to our BUY stance is
the big EPC orders that the company has been banking upon do not arrive.
Research
Buy >15%
Hold 5% to 15%
Sell <5%
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