PNC Infratech: On Road To Re-Rating
PNC Infratech: On Road To Re-Rating
PNC Infratech: On Road To Re-Rating
PNC Infratech
BUY
INDUSTRY INFRASTRUCTURE On road to re-rating
CMP (as on 9 Aug 2018) Rs 165 PNCL delivered robust 1QFY19 revenues of Rs 7.1bn Highlights of the Quarter
with APAT beat of 9.7%. The run-rate translates to Rs
Target Price Rs 322 Moving to big league with Rs 150bn of order backlog:
28bn revenue for FY19E. Currently execution is going PNCL has Rs 66.2bn of order book currently under
Nifty 11,470 on Rs 66.2bn backlog and with Rs 84bn of new orders execution and Rs 84bn of orders will start revenue
Sensex 38,024 moving into execution from Oct-18E, PNCL is well contribution from 2HFY19E. Current revenue run-rate
KEY STOCK DATA poised to surprise street positively. is Rs7bn/qtr and new orders may add Rs 7-8bn/qtr on
Bloomberg PNCL IN full potential, taking quarterly revenue to Rs 15bn/qtr
Chakeri-Allahabad, Aligarh-Kanpur projects are in by 1QFY20E. PNCL conservative guidance of Rs
No. of Shares (mn) 257 advance stages of FC, expected in 2QFY19E. Mumbai 26/32bn revenue in FY19/20E doesn’t factor Rs 84bn
MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 42/617 and UP State Highways EPC projects will start new order.
6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 48 contributing to revenue from Oct-18E. We estimate Standalone B/S strong, net D/E < 0.12x, NWC day
STOCK PERFORMANCE (%) PNCL will outperform its Rs 26/32bn revenue improving: PNCL current net debt is Rs 2.4bn and NWC
52 Week high / low Rs 228/129 guidance for FY19/20E by 21/52%. days is 91 vs 113days in FY18. The debtors are 9bn of
3M 6M 12M which HAM SPV debtors is Rs 2.1bn and GST Rs 1.5bn.
PNCL earned Rs 253mn of early completion bonus
PNCL expects debtor days to come down from 113 to
Absolute (%) (1.3) (4.3) 18.2 during 1QFY19. With a strong balance sheet and 90days over next few months.
Relative (%) (8.9) (16.1) (1.4) likely monetization of existing BOT assets (3 projects
in advance stages, Rs 3.3bn of equity invested), there
Near-term outlook: With most projects now having
SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%) >85% land except for recent Karnataka HAM with 50%
Promoters 56.07 is enough headroom for funding the required HAM land, execution is key trigger for further re-rating. Any
FIs & Local MFs 21.84 equity of Rs 7bn. We maintain BUY with SOTP based progress on BOT monetization can lead to further
FPIs 6.16
TP of Rs 322/sh. upsides.
Public & Others 15.93 Financial Summary (Standalone)
Source : BSE Year Ending March (Rs mn) 1QFY19 1QFY18 YoY (%) 4QFY18 QoQ (%) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E
Net Sales 7,102 3,515 102.1 6,989 1.6 16,891 17,966 31,408 48,720
Parikshit D Kandpal EBITDA 1,041 468 122.6 1,009 3.2 2,210 2,588 4,587 7,355
[email protected] APAT 772 246 214.0 713 8.2 1,169 1,054 2,297 3,713
+91-22-6171-7317 Diluted EPS (Rs) 3.0 1.0 214.0 2.8 8.2 4.6 4.1 9.0 14.5
P/E (x) 36.2 40.2 18.4 11.4
Kunal Bhandari EV / EBITDA (x) 19.8 16.4 10.4 6.8
[email protected] RoE (%) 7.9 6.2 11.9 16.5
+91-22-6639-3035 Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters
PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
We expect PNC’s order book Order Book To Multiply 1.45x Over FY18-20E EBIDTA Margins To inch up to ~15%
to multiply 1.45x over FY18- Order book (Rs mn) Revenues (Rs mn) EBITDA Margins (%) PAT Margins (%) - RHS
20E Book-to-bill ratio (x) - RHS Rs mn
165,000 8 16.0
Rs mn
14.0
Roads EPC and HAM will be 145,000 7
12.0
key drivers for order-book 125,000 6
10.0
growth 105,000 5
8.0
85,000 4
6.0
65,000 3
4.0
45,000 2
EBITDA margins may 25,000 1
2.0
increase to ~15% 5,000 0
-
FY20E
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Expect FY20E Net D/E Ratio Of 0.3x Expect FY20E NWC Cycle Of 87 days
Expect PNC to add debt over Net Debt (Rs mn) Net D/E Ratio (x) - RHS Cash flow from operations - LHS NWC Cycle - RHS
FY19-20E to fund capex and 8,500 0.50 3,000 Rs mn 180
Rs mn
WC needs as execution pace 7,500 160
0.40 2,500
increases 140
6,500
2,000
0.30 120
5,500
FY20E-end net D/E ratio may 1,500 100
4,500 0.20
inch up to 0.3x 1,000 80
3,500
0.10 60
2,500 500
40
-
Expect net working capital 1,500 0 20
cycle of 87days in FY20E as 500 (0.10) -500 0
share of NHAI projects
FY17E
FY11
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY18
FY19E
FY20E
increase in the order book
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
There is no pending equity to be Strong BOT Portfolio – Value BOTs At Rs 33.4/sh (1.5x P/BV)
invested in the completed
projects. Total equity invested is Aligarh-Ghaziabad project has been one of the key BOT Monetization in advances stages: PNC is
pain points in PNC’s BOT portfolio. The toll negotiating with potential buyers on monetization
Rs 5.8bn (PNC share) including Rs
collection has improved to Rs 524mn in 1QFY19 of Raebareli, MP Highway & Bareli-Almora project.
1.2bn of loss funding to Aligarh-
(flat QoQ). This translates into a Rs 5.9mn/day run The total equity invested in these projects is Rs
Ghaziabad project
rate. PNCL is in advance stages of exiting the 3.3bn and debt of Rs 13bn. The same can be
project as negotiation are going on (likely in utilized for funding balance equity requirement of
PNC is looking to monetize 2HFY19E). In worst case PNCL may have to further Rs 7bn in HAM projects (Rs 600mn invested in
projects - Raebareli-Jaunpur, fund Rs 350mn towards loan repayment. Current 1QFY19 already).
Bareilly-Almora and Gwalior toll revenues are sufficient for servicing interest.
Bhind which could happen by Toll collections have been better than expected in
4QFY19E Raebareli-Jaunpur annuity project: PNC received Kanpur Ayodhya, Kanpur Kabrai and Aligarh
COD for the Raebareli-Jaunpur BOT project on Ghaziabad project. MP Highway was lower due to
March 8, 2016. The project had achieved COD partial shutdown of Narmada bridge (not part of
Narela project arbitration in
three months ahead of the June-16 deadline. The PNCL). The damage has been corrected and traffic
advance stages final outcome is
subsidiary has received Rs 337mn as bonus in has now improved. We have valued PNC’s BOT
expected by Sep-18E
1QFY19 (PNC’s share Rs 253mn). portfolio at Rs 33.4/sh (1.5x P/BV).
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
PNC Infratech TP
21-Aug-17 145 BUY 168
330 11-Oct-17 147 BUY 194
16-Nov-17 179 BUY 203
280 12-Jan-18 198 NEU 213
12-Apr-18 178 BUY 248
230
14-Apr-18 176 BUY 248
180 25-May-18 168 BUY 250
10-Jul-18 152 BUY 322
130 9-Aug-18 165 BUY 322
80 Rating Definitions
Apr-18
Sep-17
Feb-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Mar-18
Dec-17
Oct-17
Aug-17
Aug-18
Nov-17
Jan-18
May-18
BUY : Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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PNC INFRATECH : RESULTS REVIEW 1QFY19
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