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Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in India

Article  in  Journal of Environmental Engineering · July 2018

DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0001394

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 Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in India
Manish Kumar Goyal, Aff.M.ASCE 1; and Rao Y. Surampalli, Dist.M.ASCE 2

Abstract: Direct and indirect effects of climate change will have an adverse impact on water resources, human systems, regional agriculture,
and food security. India, with a population of more than 1.2 billion, has experienced tremendous economic growth in the last two decades with
only 4% of the world’s water resources and about 9% of the world’s arable land. Rainfall is distributed highly unevenly in the spatio-temporal
space, with the highest rainfall-receiving region on the planet in northeastern (NE) India, in contrast to Thar Desert in western India. There has
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been a significant change in precipitation and temperature during 2000–2015 in India in comparison to the last 100 years. This could indicate
a signature of climate change in India. We find that a comprehensive and detailed understanding and clear assessment of the impact of climate
change on India’s water resources are required to reach a definitive conclusion and explanation of the trends to better inform policy actions.
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)EE.1943-7870.0001394. © 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Author keywords: Climate change; India; Precipitation; Temperature; Runoff.

Introduction In India, a vast country with multifaceted geography, the effects

of climate change on water resources differ substantially among
Climate change is a big challenge to the water, food security, and different regions and river basins and cannot be generalized. Still,
welfare of 1.2 billion people in the 21st century in India. There is there is a lacuna in interdisciplinary amalgamation of the knowl-
uneven spatial distribution of water resources in many regions of edge of climate change impacts on water resources in India.
India, from the drier northwest, where rainfall is scarce, to the Reliance on historical climate conditions will no longer be tenable
northeast, the highest rainfall-receiving region on the planet. since climate change generates conditions well outside past param-
India has experienced several devastating climate extremes dur- eters for current and future planning. We present rigorous analysis
ing recent decades. For instance, the drought of 2016 covered about based on published data from observed recent trends and climate
10 states and affected about 330 million people, causing an eco- model projections with special emphasis on drought and flood.
nomic loss of $100 billion (ASSOCHAM Report 2016). Agricul- This study gives a clear overview of studies carried out to under-
ture in India feeds about 17.2% of the global population using only stand the impact of climate change on water resources in India.
about 9% of the world’s arable land, and more than 56% of the total
agricultural area is rainfed (Singh et al. 2014b; Rathore et al. 2014).
Arable lands [1.8 × 106 km2 (180 Mha)] span temperate, tropical, Rainfall Trends and Projections
and subtropical climates. Rice, wheat, and maize are the main
crops, together accounting for 42.2% of the gross cropped area In India, about 80% of annual precipitation is due to the
and about 86% of the grain yield in 2014 (MAFW 2016). Rainfed southwestern monsoon between June and September (Lacombe
farming covers about 58% of the net sown area with about 68% of and McCartney 2014). Using 306 stations across India with
the rural population (CRIDA 2011; Kumar et al. 2009). In northern 135 years of data (1871–2005), no significant trend is observed
India, groundwater storage decreased at the rate of 2 cm=year, for annual rainfall on a national basis. However, a small decreasing
while groundwater storage in southern India increased at the rate trend in the annual rainfall was observed across India, whereas a
of 1–2 cm=year between 2002 and 2013 because of changes in small increasing trend is observed in northwestern and peninsular
pumping and precipitation patterns using Gravity Recovery Cli- India (Kumar et al. 2010; Mondal et al. 2015). In northeastern
mate Experiment (GRACE) data (Asoka et al. 2017). About India, the highest rainfall-receiving region on the planet, no clear
13.78% of India’s geographical area is subjected to flood disasters trend of rainfall for 1871–2008 was observed (Jain et al. 2013). An
(Planning Commission 2011), and about 33 million people were increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in low and medium
affected by flooding from 1953 to 2000 (Kumar et al. 2005). Mum- rainfall events were observed across India (Goswami et al. 2006).
bai, India’s financial capital, received a record 944 mm rainfall on In central India, a significant decreasing trend (10% significance
July 26, 2005, causing havoc and several casualties (Kumar level) of the mean July and August rainfall was observed during
et al. 2008). 1951–2010 (Singh et al. 2014b). In several major river basins,
the number of rainy days decreased while the number of intense
1
Associate Professor, Discipline of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute events increased (Jain et al. 2017).
of Technology, Indore 453552, India; Dept. of Civil Engineering, Indian Average annual precipitation is expected to increase by 7–
Institute of Technology, Guwahati 781039, India (corresponding author). 18.7% for various representative concentration pathways (RCPs)
Email: [email protected] by 2099 compared with the 1961–1990 baseline using 18 Coupled
2
President and CEO, Global Institute for Energy, Environment, and
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models across
Sustainability, P.O. Box 14354, Lenexa, KS 66285.
Note. This manuscript was submitted on July 28, 2017; approved on
India (Chaturvedi et al. 2012). In several river basins across India,
January 25, 2018; published online on May 10, 2018. Discussion period precipitation is projected to increase up to 30% in the mid term
open until October 10, 2018; separate discussions must be submitted for (2040–2069) and 50% in the long term (2070–2099) from observed
individual papers. This paper is part of the Journal of Environmental En- data for the period of 1971–2005 using five general circulation
gineering, © ASCE, ISSN 0733-9372. models (GCMs) of CMIP5 (Mishra and Lilhare 2016). Using 15

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 1600
Annual Precipitation Mean Precipitation (1901-2015)

Annual Mean Precipitation (mm)

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

2015
1901
1906
1911
1916
1921
1926
1931
1936
1941
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
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Year

Fig. 1. Annual rainfall data in India.

coupled climate models simulations under the A1B scenario from An increase of 2–4.8°C in average temperature across India
the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), an increase is expected using 18 CMIP5 models from the 1880s to 2080s
in annual precipitation is projected, with significant increase in (Chaturvedi et al. 2012). Warming is expected to increase across
southern India (Kim and Byun 2009). A rise of about 100 mm India using the PRECIS climate model simulation for 2071–2100,
in premonsoon rainfall is projected for the Brahmaputra basin using with night temperatures expected to increase faster than day
PRECISE (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) sim- temperatures (Kumar et al. 2006). The significant increasing trend
ulation with the A2 scenario for the 2071–2100 period by consid- was obtained from the annual maximum (0.05–0.1°C per decade)
ering the base period of 1961–1990 (Ghosh and Dutta 2012). and minimum temperature (0.42–0.76°C per decade) at all three
Fig. 1 shows mean annual precipitation for the 1901–2015 stations (Allahabad, Rewa, and Satna) of the Ganges River basin
period. The mean precipitation for the 2000–2015 period using a Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) sim-
(1,104 mm) is lower than that for the 1901–2015 period ulation of the A2 emission scenario for the period 2001–2100
(1,139 mm). It is clear that dry years were observed in the recent (Duhan and Pandey 2015).
past. The annual mean temperature was about 25.06°C during the
period 1951–2014 across India, whereas the mean temperature
has increased about 0.25°C in the last 15 years (2000–2014) com-
Temperature Trends and Projections pared with 1951–2014 as shown in Fig. 2. Similarly, mean maxi-
mum temperature and mean minimum temperature have increased
A warming trend across India has been observed, with 2016 as the about 0.28°C and 0.22°C in the last 15 years (2000–2014),
warmest year on record since nationwide records commenced in respectively.
1901 (IMD 2016). The five warmest years all occurred during
the last 16 years (2000–2016). The national average annual temper-
ature showed a warming of 0.22°C per decade during 1971–2003 River Runoff
(Kothawale and Kumar 2005). A warming trend of 0.57°C per
hundred years across India has been observed using the data for Although India’s total fresh water resource is 1.91 km3 =year,
1881–1997 (Pant and Kumar 1997). Southern, central, and western India’s rank in per capita water availability is 132 with 17.2%
India showed a rise in annual mean temperature, and northern and of the world population (UNFAO 2013; India-WRIS 2011). The
northeastern India showed a falling trend during 1941–1999 (Arora spatial distribution of water resources is uneven. For instance, in
et al. 2005), whereas during 1981–2010, the rise of the tempera- the northeast of the country, per-capita water resource availability
tures has been limited to northern, central, and eastern/northeastern in the Brahmaputra River basin is 17,000 m3 , while it is 240 m3 in
India, with the least warming in southern India (Srivastava et al. the Sabarmati basin in western India (Amarasinghe et al. 2005).
2017). An increase in mean temperature has been observed across In northern India, a declining trend in 41 years (1970–2010) of
India for a period of 107 years (1901–2007), with the highest rise in daily streamflow records for Sutlej River has been observed at three
the western Himalayan region (Mondal et al. 2015). The maximum gauging locations (Kasol, Sunni, and Rampur). The basin has im-
temperature has increased during all seasons except the monsoon portance in the high potential for hydroelectricity power generation
season in the CRU2.1 dataset (Mitchell and Jones 2005; T. D. and agricultural practices (Singh et al. 2014a). A significantly de-
Mitchell, T. R. Carter, P. D. Jones, M. Hulme, and M. New, clining trend in mean annual streamflow in the Beas River and a
2004. “[A comprehensive set of high-resolution grids of monthly decreasing but insignificant trend for the Ravi River is observed,
climate for Europe and the globe: the observed record (1901–2000) while winter streamflow in the Chenab River showed a statistically
and 16 scenarios (2001–2100)],” Tyndall Working Paper 55, significant increase during 1961–1995 attributed to variability in
Tyndall Centre, UEA, Norwich, UK) for India, and significant snow and glacier melting (Bhutiyani et al. 2008). A declining trend
increases in the maximum winter temperature and the minimum in the historical annual streamflow data (1982–2012) of Gomti
post-monsoon temperature were noted during 1901–2000 (Sonali River (total area of 30,437 km2 ), a tributary of the Ganges River
et al. 2017). In northeastern India, the temperature has shown an in northern India, has been observed at four gauging stations
increasing trend during 1901–2003 (Jain et al. 2013). (Neemsar, Sultanpur, Jaunpur, and Maighat) and is attributed to

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 33
Annual Maximum Temperature Mean Tmax (1951-2014)

Annual Maximum Temperature (°C)

Mean Tmax (2000-2014)
32

31

30

29

28
1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011
2015
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Year

21
Annual Minimum Temperature Mean Tmin (1951-2014)
Annual Minimum Temperature (°C)

Mean Tmin (2000-2014)

20

19

18

17

2015
1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011
Year

26
Annual Mean Temperature Mean Temperature (1951-2014)
Annual Mean Temperature (°C)

Mean Temperature (2000-2014)

25

24

23
1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011
2015

Year

Fig. 2. Annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperature data in India.

a high dependency on the monsoon rainfall (Abeysingha et al. at the Mundali outlet in the Mahanadi basin attributed to a reduc-
2016). In the Upper Cauvery basin of southern India (catchment tion in forest cover by 5.71% for the period 1972–2003.
area of 36,682 km2 ), no significant trend has been observed in For the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basin, the long-
the monthly streamflow data of a 30-year period (1981–2010) term mean runoff is projected to increase by 33.1, 16.2, and 39.7%
for four gauging stations except one (T. Narasipur), where an in the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna basins, respectively
annual decrease of 0.778 m3 =s in the period 2001–2010 has been (Masood et al. 2015), by the end of the 21st century. The Brahma-
observed (Raju and Nandagiri 2017). In peninsular India, the putra River is one of the largest river systems in the world and is
streamflow at the outlet (Tikerpara) of the Mahanadi River basin fourth with regard to mean annual discharge (Mirza et al. 2001).
(catchment area of 141,589 km2 ) declined at a rate of 3,388 million The Himalayan river basins, such as Brahmaputra and Indus,
cubic meters per decade for the period of 1972–2007 (Panda et al. are projected to have reduced upstream flow based on GCMs
2013). An increase during 1956–2007 in the number of particular for the SRES A1B scenario over the period 2046–2065
flood occurrences in Bahadurabad in the Brahmaputra River (Immerzeel et al. 2010). Brahmaputra riverflow at Chilmari is
has been recorded (Climate Change Cell 2009). Dadhwal et al. expected to increase by 5–20% in 2100 (Mahanta et al. 2014) based
(2010) reported an increase by 4.53% in the annual stream flow on 22 GCMs and the A1B, B1, and A2 scenarios. Monsoon flow is

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J. Environ. Eng., 2018, 144(7): 04018054

 expected to increase by 4.5–39.1% at the outlet of lower Meghna Pathway (RCP) 8.5 of CMIP5 GCM [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Basin, including the seasonal shifting of flows (Kamal et al. 2013). Laboratory (GFDL CM3)]. There are increasing trends in annual
An increase of 5.4–17.1% in 2050 in average annual streamflow of mean precipitation [Fig. 4(a)], annual mean maximum temperature
Tungabhadra River is predicted based on HadCM3 GCM and the [Fig. 4(b)], and annual mean minimum temperature [Fig. 4(c)].
A2 and B2 scenarios (Meenu et al. 2013). Asokan and Dutta (2008) Both minimum and maximum temperatures are showing an
projected the highest increase in peak runoff in Mahanadi, i.e., 38% increase of about 0.5–0.75°C for the 21st century. Soil and water
during September for the period 2075–2100, which is an indication assessment tool (SWAT) model-simulated streamflow at the
of increasing flood; and a maximum decrease of 32.5% in average Manot gauge station of the Narmada River basin is shown in
runoff during April for the period 2050–2075, indicating drought Fig. 4(d). There is a significant trend in streamflow, increasing from
conditions. An extreme flood event during 1750 caused the diver- about 150 to 200 m3 =s in the 21st century.
sion of a part of Brahmaputra River to join to the Dihing River, thus Figs. 5(a–c) show the downscaled precipitation and temperature
forming Majuli Island, the largest river island in the world. The (maximum and minimum) for Teesta River basin at the Chugthang
river erosion has caused the total area of the island to reduce from gauge station using CMIP5-based RCP8.5 of the Earth System
751.31 km2 in 1971 to 421.65 km2 in 2001 at an average rate of Model (ESM2M) GCM outputs. This indicates increasing trends
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3.43 km2 =year (Jain et al. 2007; Sarma and Phukan 2004). in precipitation and temperature over the period 2016–2100. The
annual maximum temperature and minimum temperature have
shown significant warming of 0.02 and 0.13°C, respectively, for
Case Study of Two River Basins the duration of 2016–2100 with reference to a baseline period
of 1979–2005. In the case of precipitation, the annual precipitation
For this purpose, two different river basins were chosen to assess has increased about 450 mm for the period of 2016–2100 with
the impact of climate change on hydroclimatology of the regions: reference to 1979–2005. The simulated streamflow using MIKE
Teesta River basin, located in the highly elevated eastern 11 NAM for the period of 2016–2100 shown in Fig. 5(d) indicates
Himalayan region; and upper Narmada River basin, located in the increasing trend over the period. The streamflow over the
the moderately elevated peninsular region. Fig. 3 shows the loca- Teesta River basin at Chungthang is increased by about 28 m3 =s
tion of the river basins in India and their respective land use/land for 2016–2100 with reference to 1982–2005.
covers (LULCs). The precipitation and temperature for both basins
were statistically downscaled using GCM-simulated climatic var-
iables. The downscaled precipitation and temperature were used Drought
in hydrological models (Soil and Water Assessment Tool and
MIKE NAM) for Narmada and Teesta for evaluating the impact Drought is a spatially extensive event that affects a large number of
of changing climate on the watershed hydrology and water yield. populations in India every year. It is a source of concern for
Figs. 4(a–c) show the downscaled precipitation and temperature food security and socioeconomic vulnerability given that about
for upper Narmada basin using Representative Concentration 33% of the geographical area is subjected to drought conditions

Fig. 3. Locations of river basins in India and their respective land use and land covers (LULCs).

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Fig. 4. Statistically downscaled: (a) annual mean precipitation; (b) annual mean maximum temperature; (c) annual mean minimum temperature; and
(d) SWAT model simulated annual mean streamflow over 2016–2100 in Upper Narmada River basin.

Fig. 5. Projected: (a) annual precipitation; (b) annual mean maximum temperature; (c) annual mean minimum temperature; and (d) MIKE11 NAM
simulated annual mean streamflow for 2016–2100.

(Mishra and Desai 2005), largely driven by erratic monsoon rains arid western meteorological subdivision viz. West Rajasthan and
(Shah and Mishra 2015). Dry lands (arid, semi-arid, and dry sub- Saurashtraand Kutch as the most drought affected region in India,
humid) spanning from northwestern to southern India cover about with 31 drought events during 1875–2004 (130 years) (Shewale
2.28 × 106 km2 (Ministry of Environment and Forests 2010). Over and Kumar 2005). The Jammu and Kashmir meteorological sub-
the last five decades, very severe droughts hit India in the 1960s division experienced 28 drought cases; Gujarat, 27. In the north-
(1965), 1970s (1972 and 1979), in the late 1980s (1987), and late east, the lowest number of droughts has been observed (Shewale
2010s (2009), where more than 40% of the area was affected (Kaur and Kumar 2005).
2009). Extreme dry spells became more frequent in 1981–2010 but Analysis of the drought trends found an increasing trend in
less intense in comparison with 1950–1980 in central India (Singh drought severity and frequency during 1972–2004 in comparison
et al. 2014b). The Indian Meteorological Department identifies the to 1901–1935 and 1936–1971. A general shift in drought has also

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J. Environ. Eng., 2018, 144(7): 04018054

 been observed to the agriculturally important coastal southern the northeastern, central eastern, and southern parts of the country.
India, central Maharashtra, and Indo-Gangetic plains (Mallya However, there is a significant increasing trend for ADS in the
et al. 2015). There is increasing severity in meteorological, vegeta- northern parts, especially Bihar State. Decreasing trends were
tion, and short duration droughts in comparison with yearlong found for the western, northwestern, and southern regions of the
drought figures in the last three decades (Zhang et al. 2017). country. The western states, which are generally severely affected
Monthly rainfall projections based on five GCMs and three by frequent droughts, had decreasing trends. Agriculturally impor-
emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) using kernel tant states, such as Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, had decreasing trends
regression-based statistical downscaling shows an increase in the for ADS. Fig. 7 shows the results for the trend analysis of ADD.
occurrences of extreme dry spells (EDS) over central, southeast The trends in ADD are similar to trends in ADS. Cropland is the
coastal, eastern, and some parts of northeastern India for the most dominant land cover in India, covering more than 50% of
21st century (Salvi and Ghosh 2016). Results from the Intergov- the area. A consistent decreasing trend in drought variables was
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1FI SRES emission observed for the croplands spread across the country. However,
scenario and the E3MG 450-ppm CO2 stabilization scenario of an increasing trend was observed for the forests of northeastern
three GCMs project decline in key drought indicators, such as aver- India and the Western Ghats.
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age drought frequency, duration, magnitude, and intensity in the

first half of the 21st century (2003–2050) (Jenkins and Warren
Glaciers
2015). In contrast, under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario using 17
GCMs, an increased drought frequency is projected in central Changes in a glacier and its extent can influence river runoff and the
northeastern, west central, and peninsular India in the second half availability of water in the Himalayan rivers, like Indus, Ganges,
of the 21st century (2050–2099) (Ojha et al. 2012). In northwestern and Brahmaputra, and agricultural development in India. India
India, an increasing risk is expected because of drought, while an has 9,040 glaciers, which cover about 18,528 km2 in the Indus,
increase in wetness is projected in southern India (World Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins (Sangewar et al. 2009; Sharma
Bank 2013). et al. 2013). The evidence of long-term mass balance supports a
Drought conditions across 566 stations in India were assessed net loss for the Indian Himalayan glaciers for the last four decades
using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al. barring a few (Pratap et al. 2016). For instance, the annual rate of
1993). Six-month SPI series were calculated at all stations using glacial shrinkage is about 0.2–0.7% in the Indian Himalayan region
monthly rainfall data over 102 years (1901–2002). SPI values were for 11 river basins in the period 1960–2004 with a mean extent of
used to calculate drought variables, such as annual drought severity 0.32–1.4 km2 (Kulkarni et al. 2011; Bolch et al. 2012). The mass
(ADS) and annual drought duration (ADD). Fig. 6 shows the balance of Chhota Shigri Glacier (15.7 km2 ), located in the Chan-
trend analysis for ADS performed using the nonparametric dra River basin of Himachal Pradesh, showed a net loss of about
Mann-Kendall test. Increasing trends for ADS were found for 1,000 m during 2002–2009 (Ramanathan 2011). Temperatures

Fig. 6. Trend analysis of annual drought severity (ADS) across 566 stations in India over 1901–2002.

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Fig. 7. Trend analysis of annual drought duration (ADD) across 566 stations in India over 1901–2002.

reconstructed over the last 400 years using tree ring width data and international echelons and their enforcement issues. Reduction
in Gangotri Glacier (area of 143 km2 and length of 30 km) in the vegetation fraction and increase in the urban and bare soil
in Western Himalaya indicated that increased winter temper- fractions have been observed in India. Incorporation of land use
ature is attributed to high glacial retreat (Singh and Yadav 2000). and land cover changes can help improve weather prediction and
Satellite images derived from linear imaging self scanning sensor water resources management (Unnikrishnan et al. 2016).
(LISS-III) classified maps (2014) indicated the Zemu Glacier, China, with the world’s largest population and a booming
located in the Sikkim Himalayan region, had a reduction in the economy, depends heavily on the availability of water resources.
snout portion in comparison with the surveyed toposheet of the Regarding water resources in China, extremely uneven distribution
Zemu Glacier region (1935) (Singh 2016). prevails in terms of spatio-temporal distribution, with northwestern
China being dry and southeastern China being wet. In spring and
autumn, a decreasing precipitation is prevailing, while in winter, an
Implication of Climate Change and Policy Actions increasing precipitation is dominant during the period 1956–2000
(Zhang et al. 2012). The annual average temperature is projected
India is a developing country with the largest population of global to increase by 1.5–2.7°C in 2040–2069, and 1.9–3.3°C and
poor (30%), and has an agrarian economy, larger coastal lines of 2070–2099 under RCP4.5 using 35 climate models from CMIP5,
7,517 km, the Himalayan region, and islands. The water resources and an increase in precipitation (ranging from about 2 to 20%) has
in the country are also under the severe threat of climate change in been found over most areas of China except the southwest (Wang
terms of changes in the magnitude and intensity of rainfall, ground and Chen 2013). The spatio-temporal variation of drought in China
water recharge, floods, and drought disasters, including contami- during 1961–2012 revealed about 143 drought events with a dura-
nation of surface water and ground water resources. The National tion of three months or longer, identified on the basis of the stan-
Water Policy of the Government of India was first enunciated in dard precipitation index (Xu et al. 2015). Enlargement of regional
1987. The National Water Policy of 2002 emphasized the ecologi- water resources to strengthen water infrastructure, such as a diver-
cal and environmental aspects of water allocation in the rapidly sion project to alleviate drought in the north, are planned in mit-
changing scenario. The National Water Policy (National Water igating and adapting the impacts of climate (Piao et al. 2010).
Policy of India 2012) stressed that water needs to be considered To combat future water resources problems, there is an urgent
a common-pool resource for the planning and management of water need to strengthen the access to good quality data, upgrade data
resources. Despite different polices adopted by the government at collection networks and storage, and promote multidisciplinary
different levels, water law continues to remain inconsistent, and research centers in different parts of the country. This will
somewhat inadequate, in the 21st century (Kumar and Bharat assist in making scientific decisions on water and climate change
2014) because of various elements at local, regional, national, policy.

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 Conclusions change on surface runoff using a macro scale hydrological model.”
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Therefore, it is essential to improve assessment of the climate
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