114 Presentation-Perils of Over Design

The Perils of Overdesign
Tamilnadu Engineers Forum

5th International Conference – November 2014
Background
 Over design is not apparent

 Under design has an implied failure
 Design Targets are set
 Internally by business
 Externally by authorities
 These are minimums engineers must achieve
 Targets can be any range of variables
 Safety
 Environmental
 Health
 Production rates
 Quality of product
 Cost & Schedule
2
Failure to meet a target
 Visible to many – e.g BP Deep Water Horizon – Poor design and

inadequate installation management – did not meet requirement
 Can have serious impacts – short and long term – workers on
platform, fisheries, tourism, local businesses – life, cost, business
reputation, business failure
 CEO - “I want my life back”
 Impact on UK Pension values
 Still in legal dispute
3
Overdesign
Myths about over design

 Nobody notices or visible to few
 Its always safer
 It does not matter to anyone
 We meet our target so no one will care
It will be noticed and there will be a price – in terms of resources

including materials manpower and money.
Sustainability is about protecting all resources and using them to our
best adavntage
In the long run it does matter
4
Oversizing
Causes of oversizing can be many

 We don’t know the feed stock when before we build – wells to be drilled in
upstream, oil to be purchased for downstream refinery– so we estimate and add
margins to cover uncertainty
 We don’t know how much we need to produce – what is the market going to be in 1
year, 5 years, 10 years and beyond – so we estimate and add margins to cover
uncertainty
 We set environmental limits – maximum and minimum temperatures for instance
 We then add a “design” margin – typically 10% without actually defining its purpose
 Supply chain adds its margins based on the terms and conditions
Impact will be seen when we put the facility to use
 Commissioning takes longer as plant is not running at the optimum point
 Plant running unstable or inefficiently
5
Typical Issues – Centrifugal compressor
 Limited turndown
 Head is impacted by fluid composition
 Power requirements impacted by fluid
composition
 The oversizing results in
 Loss of efficiency
 Running closer to unsafe surge
conditions
 Larger ancillary equipment
 Increase wear and maintenance on
recycle controls used to control
machine
 Greater Capex and Opex
 Similar applies to Pumps
6
Typical Issues – Tanks
 Improved Performance!
 Larger tanks – diameter
increases as height is limited
 Takes more land
 More materials in construction
(pipe and cable) due to greater
distance
 More cost for utilities due to
greater demand
 Greater risk in the event of fire
 Increased capex – tank cost is
proportional to volume
7
Typical Issues
Pipeline Utility
 Larger diameter and wall thickness  Larger facilities usually require more
 More construction costs – welding, utilities
PWHT, logistics due to weight  Power – transfer of materials, lighting
 Deeper trenches – cost and safety  Air
issue  Water
 In operation stratification / separation  Control systems
of process fluids
 Buildings
 Increased settlement of solids
 Land
 Increased corrosion – including
failure  All result in greater Capex and Opex
 More frequent cleaning / inspection

requirements
 Greater Capex and Opex
8
Typical Issues – Processes
Distillation
 Liquid channelling / loss of seal
 Insufficient vapour
 Loss of separation efficieny
 Products don’t meet specification
Cyclonic Separation cyclones / hydrocyclones

 Insufficient velocity to effect separation
 Carryover of products into the wrong streams
 Failure of downstream processes
9
Getting it right
 Requires Planning and Control

 Gate systems are used to plan and control
 Appraise –
 Concept – inputs / output targets including tolerance must be defined
 Define
 Execute
 Operate
We must have the right

targets and basis before
moving to next stage
10
Conflict of Requirements
 Projects have HSE, Quality, Cost and Schedule goals

 We cannot always balance all requirements perfectly
 Safety standards are fixed
Quality
 Cost / Schedule changes limited
 Quality takes the strain
 Oversizing protects quality
 Oversizing increases cost
 Oversizing can increase time
HSSE
Schedule Cost
11
Risk
The threat associated with uncertainty is often managed by over-sizing to remove the
uncertainty.
Risk is defined as being:

‘An uncertain event, feature, activity, or situation that can have a positive or a
negative effect on your objectives’
Risk are opportunities (positive effect) or threats (negative effect)
Risk is the product of the uncertainty of an event occurrence combined with the impact if
it happens.
The threat of under-design results in over-design creates an opportunity that we
overlook.
12
Acceptable Risk
 Statutory authorities impose their own minimums with legal backup –

often driven by society’s opinion
 Business has its own targets – determined by stakeholders
 Standards of risk change over time – e.g. safety
 There are rarely the same for each project
 Example - Flood defences
 New Orleans – 1 in 100 years failure
 Netherlands – 1 in 10,000 years
 So designing for 1 in 1000 years would be seen as under design in
Netherlands but over design in New Orleans.
 Same applies to weather conditions – how often are we prepared to
accept disruption due to snow, rain or wind
 Perception and willingness to bare cost is critical and is this society,
business or consumers.
13
Risk Management
Using appropriate Risk

Management techniques is a tool to
High DETRIMENT
measure the effectiveness of
design management Treat as
P cost and Avoid
Typical Mitigation Approaches R thereafter or
 Avoid – eliminate completely O limit
opportunity
B
 Limit – accept not always A
B
 Insure – pay to cover loss
I Insure,
Provision
 Provision for L provision
I and
 Cost for and
T manage
limit
 Time for Y
 Manage Low IMPACT High

Over design generally “Avoids” – other approaches may be
more appropriate based on actual risk.
Summary
 We do not need to avoid all risks

- some may be tolerable to the
stakeholders
 Tolerable risks should be
acknowledged and managed
 Every society and business has
its own acceptance criteria –
learn these before starting work
 Challenge waste – think
sustainably
15
THANK YOU
16

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The Perils of Overdesign

Tamilnadu Engineers Forum

 Over design is not apparent

 Visible to many – e.g BP Deep Water Horizon – Poor design and

Myths about over design

It will be noticed and there will be a price – in terms of resources

Causes of oversizing can be many

 More frequent cleaning / inspection

Cyclonic Separation cyclones / hydrocyclones

 Requires Planning and Control

We must have the right

 Projects have HSE, Quality, Cost and Schedule goals

Risk is defined as being:

 Statutory authorities impose their own minimums with legal backup –

Using appropriate Risk

 Manage Low IMPACT High

 We do not need to avoid all risks

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