Developing a Theory of Change for your project

What is a Theory of Change?

A Theory of Change is a diagram that explains how your project has an impact on young people. It is a
practical model that allows you to articulate HOW you will achieve your aim, and what assumptions
you are making.
A Theory of Change should not refer to the scale, growth plan or operational details of your project,
instead it should effectively describe and explain the impact of the project from a beneficiary’s point of
view.

Example Theory of Change

Why are Theories of Change useful?

Theories of Change are useful for:
 Internal programme development: the process of developing a Theory of Change can help you
to refine and enhance the effectiveness of your project.
 External communication: the Theory of Change diagram can be a useful tool for communicating
what your programme does and how it has an impact in a clear and convincing way.

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  Evaluation planning: it is a first step in designing an effective evaluation, as it allows you to
identify which outcomes are key to your model’s success and can indicate which ones should be
the focus of your evaluation efforts.
Project Oracle believes that a Theory of Change which provides a clear, concise and convincing
explanation of what your project does, what impact you aim to have and how you believe you will have
it is a vital foundation of any project, and a prerequisite for effective evaluation. For this reason,
producing a Theory of Change is an obligatory requirement for achieving Standard 1 on Project Oracle’s
Standards of Evidence.

How do I create a Theory of Change?

There are five steps in creating a Theory of Change for your project:

2. Identifying 3. Identifying 4. Showing 5. Examining

1. Identifying
your your the causal your
your aims(s)
outcomes activities links assumptions

This document will describe each of these five elements in turn, framing them with examples from a
fictional programme aimed at reducing youth re-offending. The full Theory of Change diagram for this
project can be found on page 1.
At the end of the end of the document you will find a checklist of questions to ask yourself before
finalising or submitting your own Theory of Change.
But first, here are some initial practical tips on getting started on your own Theory of Change:

Overall tips
 You can use a variety of widely available software to draw your Theory of Change, e.g. MS
PowerPoint, MS Excel or MS Word.
 However, we recommend that in the first instance you construct your Theory of Change using a
big piece of paper and post-it notes. Experiment with moving things around until your diagram
is accurate and clear.
 Don’t do it alone: ideally you should create the Theory of Change together with other staff
members, young people who have taken part in the project and other stakeholders.
 Your Theory of Change should be colour-coded and include a key that identifies its different
elements (i.e. aims, outcomes, activities and assumptions).
 Keep it simple: it should be understandable by a non-expert, so avoid too many acronyms, or
explain them.
 Share and submit as an image or PDF: don’t risk sending a diagram that will load differently on
different machines.

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Step 1: Identifying your aim(s)
Definition: the overarching purpose of your project; what you hope to achieve with your activities.
Tips
 The aim of your project is its long term outcome, so remember to state what you’re aiming to
achieve, not what the activities are.
 The aim should be measurable.
 In general your project should have one overall aim. However there may be more than one aim
if your project works with multiple target groups – for example a project which works with
young parents and their children may have an aim for each of these groups.
Example
Young people who have been involved in the criminal justice system often find it difficult to move away
from this lifestyle – illustrated by high reoffending rates.
This project wishes to address this – their aim is to reduce re-offending rates amongst young people
who have already been involved in the criminal justice system.

Step 2: Identifying your outcomes

Definition: the changes, benefits, learning or other effects that happen as a result of your project.
Tips
 Think about what changes (outcomes) must happen before your aim can be realised.
 This can be a confusing stage. You might be inclined to focus on what you must do to make the
changes happen. Try not to start your brainstormed ideas with actions performed by your
project.
 Instead, think about all of the “stuff” that must exist in order for the aim to exist. Thinking about
the root causes of the problems can help you come with ideas about what changes (Outcomes)
must take place before the ultimate goal can be realised.
 The outcomes can be immediate, intermediate or longer term. It is likely that you will have a
number of outcomes along a chain to get to your final aim. You will need to ensure that the
earlier outcomes on the chain take place before it is possible that the later ones can do.
 Outcomes should be specific and measurable, typically using language such as ‘greater’,
‘improved’ or ‘increased’. They should be phrased as if they have been achieved already.
 They should be comprehensive enough to reflect the complexity of the programme – their aim
is to explain in detail all of the changes that happen to beneficiaries during the programme.
Example
There are many reasons why young people re-offend, but this project specifically focusses on the fact
that young people can find it difficult to move away from gangs and negative peer groups as these are
the people they rely on.
Therefore the key outcomes for this project are reduced reliance on negative peers for both physical and
emotional support, making it less likely that young people continue to be part of a gang.
Other outcomes are then included to explain exactly how those key intermediate outcomes are achieved
(please see the Theory of Change diagram on page 1 for details).

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Step 3: Identifying your activities
Definition: what you do, the specific services you deliver through your project.
Tips
 You don’t need to include process activities like recruitment or rolling out a survey – only
activities that are delivered to directly achieve the impact of the project
 Activities should be sufficiently detailed, so that someone unfamiliar with the programme can
understand what each activity entails.
 They can be quantified to explain ‘dosage’ i.e. to explain exactly how much of the activities each
participant takes part in (for example, 1 x 3 hour session per week). However you shouldn’t
detail how many people are currently taking part.
Example
This project involves three key activities; i) support to access housing, ii) employability and job
application support, and iii) mentoring by an ex-offender.

Top tip: Steps 1 – 3 are an iterative process

Generally you should start by identifying your aim, then outcomes, then activities, but you may find it
easier to do this in another order. This is an iterative process so it is likely you will refine and change
some elements as you more clearly define others.

Step 4: Showing the causal links

Definition: your Theory of Change will include arrows which explain the causality of your programme in
more detail. More specifically, causal links should show which activities lead to which outcomes, which
outcomes lead to which other outcomes, and which outcomes lead to which aim (if there is more than
one aim).
Tips
 Causal links should reflect the complexity of the programme – generally speaking it is likely that
some activities will lead to more than one outcome, some outcomes will have more than one
activity leading to them, and many outcomes will lead to other outcomes (rather than simply
linking an activity directly to the aim).
 However, complexity should also be balanced with clarity – if the number and complexity of
causal links are making the Theory of Change difficult to follow or digest, you should consider
removing some of the less integral causal links from the diagram.
 Every activity and outcome should eventually link to at least one of your aims.
Example
The project’s Theory of Change argues that the activities will reduce young people’s likelihood of getting
involved in gang activity as; i) housing and employment lead to more stable physical situation, and ii)
the support of a mentor and the confidence gained from employment lead to more independence and
better ability to make positive life decisions. In turn these elements reduce the need to rely on negative
peers.

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Step 5: Examining your assumptions
Definition: the underlying conditions that need to exist for your planned changes to occur.
Tips
 The purpose of assumptions is to proactively identify reasons why some of your causal links
may not hold true in practice. Ask yourself, for each activity-outcome pair: What assumptions
have been made in determining this relationship?
 Assumptions should focus on your most contestable causal links i.e. the sections of your Theory
of Change that someone might challenge as being less plausible or convincing.
 They should always sit on top of a specific causal link, rather than ‘floating’ elsewhere on the
diagram.
Example
The project’s Theory of Change argues that mentoring by an ex-offender will lead to changes in
attitudes and behaviour for the young people taking part in the project. However, they rightly
acknowledge that there are assumptions underpinning this claim, in particular that the ex-offenders will
be better able to build rapport with the young people. If this doesn’t hold true in practice it is likely that
the young people will not change their attitudes and behaviour.
The same applies for the assumption about housing being available – this is beyond the control of the
project, but not being able to secure housing would jeopardise the project’s effectiveness.
Identifying these assumptions may mean that the project alters its activities slightly – for example by
forming a relationship with the local authority to prioritise housing applications from the young people
on the project, or even exploring options for alternative housing.

Theory of Change and Evaluation Planning

Your Theory of Change is a vital step before planning your evaluation. However once you start to plan
your evaluation, practical considerations such as available data and tools may mean the outcomes on
your Theory of Change aren’t exactly what you’re going to be measuring in your evaluation.
Remember to revisit your Theory of Change once you have planned your evaluation to ensure that
there is consistency between these documents!

Final checklist

□ Does your Theory of Change have a title which includes the name of the project?
Does your Theory of Change include activities, outcomes, causal links, assumptions and one or
□ more aims?
□ Are each of those elements colour-coded and labelled?

□ Does your Theory of Change make it clear who the target population is?

□ Does your Theory of Change avoid referring to the scale of your programme?
Does your Theory of Change describe the ‘dosage’ of the activities i.e. how much of the
□ activities each beneficiary receives?
Does your Theory of Change avoid referring to training, referral routes, marketing, programme
□ setup or any other operational activities?
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 □ Are all of your outcomes and aims measureable?
Are some of your outcomes connected to each other by causal links? (i.e. all of the outcomes
□ don’t lead directly to the aim)
Are all of your causal links visually clear and easy to follow on the page? (top tip – square arrows
□ are much easier to follow!)
□ Is every item connected to at least one of your aims?

□ Do all of the causal pathways make sense?

Are all of your assumptions sitting on specific causal links? Each assumption should relate to a
□ specific causal pathway: there should not be general project assumptions floating around.

Any questions?
If you have any questions about Theory of Change or the validation process, you can email us at
[email protected] or call us on 020 7148 6726.

Document last updated: June 2014

Next review date: January 2015

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