The Urban Planning Process.: Dames, Thomas Allan
The Urban Planning Process.: Dames, Thomas Allan
The Urban Planning Process.: Dames, Thomas Allan
1972
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/16420
m
THE URBAN PLANNING PROCESS
A Thesis
of
Purdue University
by
of
Doctor of Philosophy
August 1972
T148501
1:L
LIBRARY
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOS
MOIJTERSY, £AJ*X1P< &334Q
To Ursula Anne
Ill
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Page
LIST OF TABLES ix
LIST OF FIGURES x
ABSTRACT xii
INTRODUCTION 1
A Data-Use Matrix 72
Land Data 83
Land Use 83
Ownership 84
Frontage and Area 84
Easements 84
Landmark 84
Number of Parking Spaces 84
Assessed Value of Land and Improve-
ments 84
Real Estate Tax Revenue 84
Sale Price and Sale Data 85
Summary 85
Street Data 85
Intersection 85
Length of Segment, Right-of-way
Width and Pavement Width 85
Functional Class 85
Structural Composition and Percent
Grade 86
Average Traffic and Peak Hour Traffic. 86
Number of Accidents 86
Curb Parking 86
VI
Page
Sidewalks and Street Lights 86
Number of Lanes and Loading Zone ... 86
Transit Route and School Route.... 86
Access Control 87
Condition 87
Utilities Sharing Right-of-way.... 87
Summary 87
Structural Data 87
Year Built and Type of Construction . 87
Building Condition 87
Number of Floors, Total Floor Area
and First Floor Area 88
Number and Type of Building Code
Violations 88
Rehabilitation Cost 88
Police Calls and Fire Calls 88
Utility Service 88
Summary 88
Dwelling Unit Data 89
Percent Vacant 89
Residents by Sex and Age Groups ... 89
Family Income 89
Family Education and Occupation ... 89
Vehicles Owned, Place of Work and
Means of Transportation to Work . . 90
Number and Types of Communicable
Diseases 90
Rent 90
Summary 90
Non-Dwelling Unit Data 91
Peak Shift Employees, Number of
Employees and Optimum Total
Employment 91
Major Product Groups 91
Percent Sales Outside the Area.... 91
Summary 91
Some Concepts of Sampling 92
Sample Size 94
Sample Selection 95
Simple Random Sample 95
Stratified Random Sample 96
Systematic Sample and Stratified
Systematic Sample 96
Cluster Sampling 97
Error 97
Accuracy and Precision 98
VL1
Page
Urban Information Systems 101
Information Hierarchy 102
Levels of System Sophistication 102
System Development 102
Summary 105
Notes 105
Page
Evaluation Techniques ..... 192
Intuitive Methods 193
Monetary Valuation Methods 194
The Equivalent Uniform Annual Cost
Method 194
The Present Worth of Costs Method . . 195
The Equivalent Uniform Annual Net
Return Method 195
The Net Present Value Method 195
The Benefit/Cost Ratio Method .... 196
The Rate of Return Method 196
Social Accounts Valuation Methods 198
Utility Value Methods 199
Goal Achievement Methods 201
Psychological Valuation Methods 205
Summary 206
A Note on Practice 207
Conclusions 211
Notes 211
BIBLIOGRAPHY 238
General References 247
VITA 258
IX
LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1-1 Sample Community Goals and Objectives .... 15
Figure Page
1-1 A Conceptual Visualization of the Client
Constituency 10
Figure Page
V-3 Conceptual Forecasted Outcomes 132
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION
FIGURE I-
11
Table 1-1
16
17
18
D. Cultural Development
20
21
22
I. Political Framework
24
Housing Development
25
26
27
R R-ji , j = 1, 2, . . . n-1, n.
j
i = 1
R.
u , j = 1, 2, . . . n.
n
R.
J
j - 1
An example follows.
abed
Participants
abedParticipants
C 1 2 2 3 2 2 1
3
r r
i i
t t
B 2 4 1 2 B 2 3 2
e e
r r
i i
3 3 4 1 1 1 3
a
D 4 1 3 4 3 1
A 8 A 8/24 = .333
c C
r r
i B 7 i B 7/24 = .292
t t
e e
r C 5 r C 5/24 = .208
1 l
a a
D 4 D 4/24 = .167
1.000
R. = Rjj, = 1, 2, n-1 n
J ,
i = 1
and,
R.
J
u .
= j = 1, 2, . . . n
,
J
n
R.
J
J - 1
29
u. = u .
k
G G G
l } 2 } 3
rJ }
ro aj
, 1 G . where G-, 1 G
n-1 J n' 1 J n
j 2
n
j = 2
n
j = 2
n
j = 2
30
proceed to step 4.
n
J = 2
n
u
i<£; ^ Then drop the least
J - 2
preferred criterion, G , from consideration
and repeat step 3. Continue this process
until G,
A/
/
I
A
j
/X
= 2
G.
°> where G is the least
is completed.
u'
J
31
G
a {
G A b
g
c a G
d>
G
a
J
% A G
c
G
b [
G
c A e
d ,
G
fe j
G
c , and
G„
C
A/ G,.
Q
D
= .8,u' =
c
.6, u'=
q
.5 and
d
judge's preferences.
Dropping G, from consideration, we find that
c
u '
= 1 <.
< H
j
"N
= b
u!
-j
= 1.4, "> which is counter to the
j = c
consonance with the judge's preferences.
Dropping G_, from coiisideration we find that ,
counter
„» -
/ u" d = .5 and this is
1
*S
Then cfor u - .o i
u fi
,
,
q
to the judge's
preferences which reflect that this pair
5 to reflect
this
is indifferent, u^ is then adjusted to .
u! = 1.5,
a
u - - .8
utility
„t = u - .5 l
'
and the associated normalized
-c r* d
values are,
ui = .5/3.3 - 15 2
d 1.000.
u - .454
A
u - .242
B
u - .152
c
U
D = .152
TTCDTi
.
33
U 222
A1 "
-
U 306
A2 "
-
u; = .150
3
A3
1.000,
u 102
Ala =
-
130
"Alb -
-
u = « 176
Alc
u 170
Md - -
u' = .200
le
u 050
Alf "
-
u' = .172
Aig
1.000.
L-
..
)
L
defining goal i.
j = 1
Then U
ijk
= U.. x V
m
and U . ., = U. .
, for m second order objectives
-* •*
defining first order obiectiv
obji
k = 1 j which, in turn, defines
goal i.
U. =
l
i = 1 i-l j = 1 i = 1 j = 1 k = 1
U. ., = 1.
In the example,
= U " 454 X .222 = .101
U
A1 A * U Al
U U U = 454 X .306 = .139
A2 " A * A2
U = U x U = 454 X .150 = .068
A3 A A3
= 454 X .176 = .080
U U
A4 " A
x U
M
U = U x U = 454 X .146 = .066
A5 A A5
.454,
and
r [
= U X U = .101 x .050 = .0050
Alf A1 A!f
u f
= U X U = .101 x .172 = .0174
Alg A1 Alg .1010
35
36
Notes
CHAPTER II
ORGANIZATION
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ADVISORY ADVISORY
COMMITTEE COMMITTEE
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f DIRECTOR
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Figure II-7
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Table II-l
Method
Input 570000
Total $ 4,050
Allocation: R I D C
.
64
Notes
CHAPTER III
INVENTORY
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Table III-l
False Football
Descriptors Record
72
73
Table III-2
f. To establish procedures
for implementation.
h. To research.
74
75
76
To determine amounts of
each land use.
To determine percentage of
each type of residential
development
To determine community
facilities required on a
neighborhood, community and
regional basis.
1. Number of labor
force
2 Percent unemployed
3. Basic/non-basic
ratio
. .
77
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83
Land Data
Land Use . As can be seen from the matrix, these data
are one of the singular primary inputs to analysis over much
of the range of urban planning. They describe the actual
land use as opposed to zoning and variance which describe
the legal use and any relaxation of the law. The source of
land use data is a field survey and the source of zoning
and variance data is appropriate governmental records.
.
84
Street Data
Intersection . Whether or not a parcel is an inter-
section classifies the subsequently listed data bits. The
source of this information is base maps and a field check.
Length of segment, right-of-way width, and pavement
width . These dimensional characteristics are analogous to
those of a non-street land parcel and are used in all the
listed types of transportation plans. The source of this
information is base maps and a field check.
Functional class . This is a convenient division of
the level of service provided by the street system — express-
way, major arterial, collector, local - and is used for its
descriptive characteristics over a wide range of plans. In
86
87
Structural Data
Year built and type of construction . These are descrip-
tive data in environmental health planning, and analytic
data for those particular structures considered in plans
such as urban renewal, housing, school and recreational
planning. They are generally available from the appropriate
assessor's office and checked in the field.
Building condition . This information is analytic in
use for all the plans enumerated above as well as higher
order plans such as comprehensive and land use plans. The
source of this information is the field survey.
88
92
Sample Size
Sample size is based upon the variance of the sample
(and, by inference, the variance of the population) and not
upon the size of the population. If the population were
completely homogeneous, then the characteristics of that
population could be measured with a sample of one. If the
population were completely heterogeneous, then the character-
istics of that population could only be determined by a
total enumeration.
In reality, of course, most populations are a mix
of homogeneity and heterogeneity over different character-
istics. In practice, the sample size is usually determined
by entering the appropriate equations with a desired variance
95
Sample Selection
Sample selection is a term describing the method of
choosing the sampled elements from the total population.
It takes various forms.
Simple Random Sample . This is the most basic and
least complicated selection procedure. It requires three
conditions; that the population to be sampled be clearly
defined, that each element in this population be uniquely
identified, and that the population elements are statistic-
ally independent. Given these three conditions, a necessary
variance can be estimated, a sample size determined, that
sample be randomly drawn from the total of the uniquely
identified population elements, the characteristics of the
sample measured, and these measurements inferred to the
population as a whole.
The procedure of random drawing is accomplished by
numbering each of the uniquely identified population
elements and then drawing the sample, by number, using a
table of random numbers.
96
Error
The many types of error that enter a survey can be
broadly classified into sampling errors and non-sampling
errors. Non-sampling errors are those which would occur
whether a sample is collected or a total enumeration made.
An example would be trying to evaluate some characteristic
of the population as a whole via a telephone interview.
Obviously people who do not subscribe to telephone service
would be ommitted. Further, this ommission would occur
regardless of the method of survey; i.e., sample or total
enumeration.
Sampling errors arise out of the general failure of
the sample design or a lack of randomness where necessary.
Deming (1950) provides a classic list of sampling
and non-sampling errors. He terms the latter procedural
biases. Some of these include the failure of the
.
98
SAMPLING ERROR
NON-SAMPLING ERROR
achieved by =
Figure III-3
neither precise
nor accurate
precise , but
not accurate
DESIGN D
Figure 111-4
Information Hierarchy
The conceptual formulation of an information theory
has resulted in identifying a three step hierarchy of
information (Horwood, 1964). The first stage of informa-
tion is known as raw data and it consists of numbers, symbols,
lists, etc., generally on paper and not yet organized into
a machine record. When this information is machine proces-
sable, it is known as banked data, the second stage of the
hierarchy. When this banked data is able to be manipulated
such as in updating, searching and retrieval operations it
is termed a data library.
System Development
The choices of levels of system sophistication and
hierarchy of information to be incorporated into an urban
information system are based upon a number of criteria.
Some of these are: the purpose of the information, the
essentiality of the information, the cost of the information,
103
LAND
INFORMATION
NO
STREET
YES
STREET STRUCTURAL
INFORMATION INFORMATION
YES
DWELLING UNIT
NO
Figure III-5
105
Summary
Urban information systems are expensive undertakings
which accrue benefits only in the future. As such they
comprise very real investments and must be judged as such.
In these times, when so many public agencies and
municipal
operating
authorities have great difficulty just meeting their
expenses, the investment in an urban information system
is
Notes
106
CHAPTER IV
ANALYSIS
108
109
Modeling
The Strategy and Tactics of
that there may exist
Lowry' s classification suggests
as^
a strategy of modeling. This strategy can be phrased
with a sense of style
"employing appropriate techniques
Appropriateness suggests that
There are two key concepts.
a proper fit. Each
which is right for the purpose and
a purpose, and fit
modeling effort must then be tied to
auxiliary conditions such as
both the specific purpose and
available. When any of these
quality of data and resources
than the others,
conditions is emphasized more or less
dysfunction include a
dysfunction occurs. Examples of
of
assumption for the quality
modeling effort too simple by
little or too much relative
data available; the converse; too
Ill
variables to powers.
largely
Yet another class of modeling tactics are
situational in context. Bolan (1970) clearly rejects the
113
notion that models which are more clever, more complex, and
which contain more facts are per se necessarily superior
to those with less such ingredients. He argues that the
An Example
science
That modeling should be at least as much art as
is apparent. Whether it be called creative technology or
as long
technologic creativity is a matter of indifference
as both elements are present. The process occurs in the
planning activity.
analysis phase of the conceptual model of
figure
Consider Figure IV-1. Within the model this
of that
shows the organization, inventory and analysis
substantive scope
planning effort which is defined along the
(destinations).
axis as statewide (origin) to state parks
of the many
Illustrated are two analytical methods, typical
organization
that could be conceived based upon the same
and inventory.
statewide state
Schulman (1964) designed a model of
gravity model.
park recreational travel based upon the
114
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where
T. .
= the number of automobile trips from residential
area j to recreational area i,
T. = the total number of automobile trips attracted
to recreational area i from all residential
areas
D. .
= the road distance in miles between residential
area i and recreational area j
where
Y = annual trips from all origins per 1000 population,
and X = distance to the recreational area in question in
miles from the population centroids.
Both the Schulman gravity model and Matthias logarithmic
model are inductive. Schulman apparently had a strong per-
conception that his data would fit a version of the well
.
116
117
120
121
122
123
CHAPTER V
FORECASTING
Substance
Along the substantive scope axis of the conceptual
model of planning activity, forecasting is used in all types
of planning. However because of the risk and difficulty
involved in forecasting the conditions at any point in the
future, only a few key variables are forecast. All other
future conditions are then inferred from these forecasts.
These key variables are characterized by two general
conditions. They are forecastable with some degree of
confidence by some generally accepted and rational technique;
and they are so closely linked to other desired variables,
either by cause or correlation, that the behavior of
these other variables can be inferred from the behavior of
the key variables.
Suppose that the inventory phase of the planning
process yielded the data conceptually shown in Figure V-2.
Some of the data are current and some are three years old.
Suppose further that the planning process was designed to
provide a plan for five, ten, and fifteen years into the
future. Figure V-2 shows the development of: first, the
estimate of the present condition; second, the five year
forecasts of the key variables; and third, the expansion of
those variables by inference at each of the five year
points of investigation.
The present or past measurement of all the variables
is the inventory phase of the planning process. The
establishment of the inferences for this contemporary data
(estimated data if need be) is accomplished in the analysis
phase. Key variables are then forecasted and inferences
drawn from them as to the behavior of other variables based
upon the discovered contemporary inferences. In the example
127
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15 YEARS
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Figure V-2
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POINTS OF REEVALUATION
TIME
(b)
F 'igure V-3
very well result less of this use and the public policy
could change public culture in the community. This is a
relatively low risk change in public policy.
Suppose points A and B were population forecasts.
Public policy could provide a system of incentives and
penalties to limit population growth, perhaps the public
culture would react favorably with these programs and the
forecast might move away from point B towards point A.
But to plan on the forecast significantly moving is probably
a high risk undertaking.
In practice, the criticality of decisions of this
type is muted by three factors. First, planning is continu-
ous, not only within the process as outlined here, but also
"from process to process" over time as inputs change.
Changing inputs include changing personalities, changing
resources, changing demands, changing values and changing
complimentary or supplementary programs and conditions.
Thus, although planning may consider effects fifty or even
one hundred years into the future, the programs generating
those effects will be reviewed almost as many times in the
interval. The forecast conceptually shown in Figure V-3 (a)
actually occurs in a pattern similar to Figure V-3 (b) as time
goes by, with resultant corrective programs (if the hypothesis
is still valid) or (should conditions change) new plans
entirely.
The second muting influence has as its basis the
limited power of government in a democratic society. Although
some key variables could, under different circumstances, be
considered as endogenous to the urban planning process, they
are not. The governmental controls on economic activity
and population growth necessary to make these variables
endogenous are too severe to be in consonance with the
laissez - faire tradition of United States government. As a
result, these variables are considered exogenously with, at
most, only a mild warping of their expected outcomes
resulting from governmental activity.
134
need for rigorous urban theory and for this reason the
planner and client constiuency must not be capricious in
cutting off debate. That point must come, however, and
when it does, the conclusions then reached are taken as
"givens" and the problem solving process proceeds. This
does not preclude the important concept of feedback, but
for the substance of forecasting, the feedback loop is too
long and awaiting its information is antithetical to
planning. To the philosophers we leave the rest.
Area
Concerning the areal scope axis of the conceptual
model of planning activity, only a few points need be made
regarding forecasting.
In the inventory phase of the process, it was recognized
that delimitation of the study area could have a significant
impact on the inventory. As might be expected, this holds
true for the synthetic inventory, the forecast, as well.
In particular, however, some measures of economic activity
are very sensitive to areal delimitation. Further, some
forecasting techniques make use of historical areal relation-
ships to "step down" greater area forecasts to their
lesser area conponents . This occurs because large area
forecasts can be made with greater confidence than small
area forecasts, all else being equal.
The problem with large area forecasts rests with the
loss of refinement. This becomes especially apparent when
the object of the study at hand is to locate some particular
facility. The large area forecast may indeed warrant the
location of that facility but the question of where, within
the area, may require an additional subdivision of the
. .
135
Procedure
The point was made earlier in this chapter that the
substance of the forecasted key variables for all types of
urban planning is one or more of economic activity character-
istics, population characteristics, land use characteristics
and transportation characteristics. Those characteristics
dealing with economic activity and population tend to be
much more exogeneous than the remaining two, and procedurally
are usually forecast first. They are as near to primary
inputs as exist in urban planning, whereas transportation
and land use characteristics are more clearly associated
with whatever the nature of the plan in question happens
to be
Population and economic activity characteristics can
methodologically be forecast independent of each other.
This then provides a cross check of at least some of the
characteristics. From population studies one could deduce
.
136
Forecasting Techniques
This section on the forecasting phase of the urban
planning process concludes by stepping back from conceptual
considerations and operationally considering some of the
commonly used specific forecasting techniques. Many are
adapted from other original uses and combinations and
permutations of techniques which have been used in the past.
There are clear favorites, but the application of any is a
strong function of not only the end use of the forecast,
but also the resources available to execute it.
Table V-l
Paper 50 1 1
Chemicals 5 5 40
Table V-2
Table V-3
Printing
Paper
Exports Exports
80
28
17
20
3
52
11
Local Printing Paper Chemicals
50
1
1
Chemicals 10 40 50 5 5 40
Table V-4
gain from the armed forces, and the resultant sum is the
present population. The net migration is estimated in either
of two ways. In one case the ratio of the census year
total population to the census year school population is
multiplied by the current year school population. This
would give current year total population if local and national
school enrollment trends were the same. This is usually not
the case so the resultant figure is corrected by multiplying
it by the percent change in local school enrollment minus
the percent change in national school enrollment.
An alternative method develops an estimate of current
school population based upon natural increase alone using
for example, a cohort survival approach with one year cohorts.
The difference between this estimate and the current school
enrollment is attributable to net migration.
Other methods of population estimating depend upon
symptomatic data. As deaths are commonly a matter of public
record, for instance, one could apply to them known average
death rates to arrive at the estimated population of each
death group for which a rate exists. The same holds true
for birth rates to arrive at the number of women of child-
bearing age, thence the rest of the population. Changes in
the number of dwelling units, automobile registrations or
similar such data could be used, in conjunction with known
rates, to arrive at population estimates. As with population
forecasting, it is not uncommon for several of these methods
to be used in an attempt to gain confidence in the resultant
estimate.
Transportation Forecasts
This introduction to transportation forecasting con-
cludes this chapter on the forecasting phase of the urban
planning process and is necessarily limited to urban ground
transportation. The forecasting techniques for this type
of activity are part of a large and strong body of knowledge,
primarily due to a favorable set of federal, state and
local legislation supportive of both research and operations.
This body of knowledge includes more than forecasting
methods, of course, and has come to be called Urban
150
151
155
Summary
This chapter has considered forecasting both as a
phase in the conceptual model of planning activity and as
a collection of techniques constituting this phase. The
CHAPTER VI
DESIGN
c.haracteristics of a facility
and the design of the facility
this point as
itself The continuum continues through
design and the design
locational characteristics affect the
affects locational characteristics.
the urban planner and
All along the design continuum,
consider many ideas. These
the design team as a whole must
ma y be pedagogically grouped
into considerations of form
Considerations of Form
palimpsest as
wafer's New Unrld Dictionary defines a
has been written upon or
"a parchment, table, etc. that
previous text or texts
inscribed two or three times, the
and remaining, therefore
having been imperfectly erased
(1968) uses this
marvelous
still partly visible." Martin
162
those that cause a move away from the central part of the
city. Examples are spatial force owing to central congestion,
site force owing to intensity of use in the central city,
situational force owing to the unnatural juxtaposition of
land uses in the central city, a force of social evolution
owing to climbing land values and taxes in the central city,
and a force relating to the status and organization of
occupance. The centripetal forces of attraction to the
central city are those associated with site attraction,
functional convenience, functional magnetism and functional
prestige.
Burgess (1929) proposed that, as a city grows, it
expands radially from its center resulting in a series of
concentric circles, each two enclosing a discrete zone.
Recognizing the exceptions caused by natural or artificial
barriers, he proposed that each zone has the tendency to
expand to the next outer zone as city growth occurs. In
Chicago, he identified five such zones; the CBD, the zone
surrounding the CBD in transition, the zone of independent
workingman's homes, the zone of better residences, and the
commuter zone.
Hoyt (1939) proposed that, instead of forming concentric
circles, zones of similar land use tended to be wedge shaped,
radiating outward from the CBD. New development on the arc
of the wedge tended to be of the same character as the
wedge itself.
163
164
167
168
Considerations of Quality
In the practice of urban design, there exists an
often repeated litany of adjectival calls-to-arms exhorting
the practitioner to excellence. Such terms as color,
texture, grain, lightness, symmetry, proportion, balance,
fitness, size, density, harmony, difference, extension,
contrast, accent, expression, vista and scale are familiar
to the profession.
Unfortunately, there is no formula that combines these
qualities in ways to insure design of high quality. Rather
there are general guidelines for each of them which state
that, in the absence of deliberate discordance for effect,
some combine in ways more pleasing than others. Considered
171
Table VI-1
Operational Considerations
Urban design is so large and complex a problem that
it is helpful to conceive of modi operendi The various
.
An Example
Consider the hypothetical example of siting two types
of recreational activities, swimming pools and golf courses,
for the residents of three residential areas, each alike
in characteristics germane to the problem. There are no
such facilities currently available and the goals and
objectives of the client constituency reflect the need for
them to the exclusion of all other considerations. There
is no problem associated with the finances necessary to
construct and operate these facilities, be they public or
private in nature.
Admittedly, this problem is simplified to make the
following point: these facilities can be sited on the
basis of demand satisfaction.
Suppose that there are 800 families in each of the
three areas and that, through the use of surveys or analogy
or national averages or any of the other techniques detailed
earlier, the planner can construct demand curves for these
facilities as shown in Figure VI-1 (a).
The abcissa of Figure VI-1 (a) is a measure of the
friction of space, including all the factors earlier detailed
180
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Figure VI-1
demand curve from VI-1 (a) to VI-1 (b). The pools would be
smaller because they would not be accessible to, say 300
families, but to some lesser number because of the steepening
of the demand curve. The other design alternative involves
retaining the present size pool, or possibly even increasing
it, and reducing the friction of space or access to the pool
sufficient to utilize its size. In this case, the number of
pools may only go up as a result of the rise in the gross
demand and the siting would revolve about reducing the fric-
tion of space.
Suppose that the planner, in forecasting the golf
demand, feels that the nature of this demand will not change,
but that the percent of participating families will rise
as shown in Figure VI-1 (b). Suppose he feels too that the
rules of play will not change and that his current standard
is applicable. Then his problem is much simpler than that
with the swimming pools and he need only plan for gross
demand factored for increased participation. The location
of the one or more golf courses can be based upon con-
siderations other than the friction of space. The demand
function for golf closely approximates those constructed
for recreational boating and camping in this respect.
The overall solution to the problem (no matter which
of the swimming pool alternatives is deemed better) is to
locate these facilities such that they satisfy the forecasted
net demand according to the forecasted demand curves. These
Summary
The problem faced by the planner in urban design is to
provide programs and facilities that will evoke certain
human responses when used. The nature of these responses
is largely determined by the client constituency. These
responses to facility or program demands are accomplished
through the professional education and experience of the
planner, coupled with a highly empathic sense of what is
not only functional but also fitting.
Notes
CHAPTER VII
EVALUATION
185
Substantive Scope
The substantive scope axis reflects and measures the
range of issues (Bolan, 1969) or outputs (Clark, 1968)
associated with the evaluation of alternative urban plans.
Bolan hypothesizes that if the issues are such that
if the
the consequences of action are easily predictable,
are gen-
action is easily accomplished, and if the issues
client con-
erally congruent with the social values of the
can be
stituency, more favorable evaluation of the issues
expected than otherwise. If there is minimal conflict over
will tend to
the ideological content of an alternative, it
values less widely
be evaluated higher than one with social
by the alterna-
held. If many people are intensively affected
tive, it will generally tend to be
evaluated lower than one
distribution and
with'a less comprehensive effect in both
degree of influence.
flexibility. An
Another issue attribute concerns its
be evaluated lower
irreversible alternative will generally
or abandonment altogether.
than one which permits modification
action for an alternative
If the implementary and programming
action by many agencies,
would require complex and coordinated
it will tend to be evaluated
lower than an alternative with
that
a single focus and manager. It is widely recognized
involving alternatives
there is a tendency to procrastination
187
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188
Areal Scope
Bolan terms areal scope attributes as those influencing
the decision field. This field may be considered as com-
prising attributes of the evaluative environment and attri-
butes of the evaluating unit or agency. An evaluation by a
focused decision center and competent and articulated
bureaucracy is more likely to provoke a decision than an
evaluation carried out where these attributes are diminished.
Clark notes that faster and more direct evaluations are
likely in an environment with large demands for governmental
activities and correspondingly large bureaucracies, large
political parties and full time political roles. The
political party serves as an informal integrating mechanism
to implement social action. This applies also to the labor
movement which in less intense organization decentralizes
the decision making structure but which, when intensively
organized, has the opposite effect.
189
.
.
190
Procedural Scope
The procedural scope axis of the conceptual model of
planning activity is of most interest to this work because
it is here that the most clear conceptual measures can be
taken of the remaining three sets of variables outlined by
Bolan; evaluation steps, evaluation roles and evaluation
strategies. Clark formulates two procedural generalities
that summarize this work. First, as a function gains
importance in a community, the community members from the
sector performing that function will have an increased
sway over the nature and direction of evaluation, and
decision making. Secondly, as the number and value of the
resources available to a sector increase, that sector will
have similar increased influence.
Evaluation steps for communal evaluation and decision
making are the same as those in the classical model of
individual behavior. Some stimulus, perhaps external, brings
into attention some need or opportunity deemed desirable.
As time and other resources permit, alternative means of
satisfying this need or seizing this opportunity are formu-
lated. Again, as time and resources permit, each of the
identified alternates is examined for costs, benefits and
feasibility. The best such alternative is then acted upon
or not.
Evaluation roles measure the specialization and dimen-
sion of each actor's ability to marshall the most resources,
to occupy favorable positions in the evaluative and decision
making structure, to negotiate with skill, and to generally
influence the behavior of others. Some of the specialized
critic,
roles in the context of urban plan evaluation are the
social-
the initiator, the technical expert, the analyst, the
advocate,
emotional expert, the strategist, the organizer, the
the
the arbiter, the propagandist, and many more including
is a
planner himself. The dimension of each of these roles
personal
measure of each actor's motivation, opportunity and
skills
.
191
Summary
in recog-
There is nothing particularly Machiavellian
outside of the
nizing that there are facets of evaluation
to ameliorate
substance of an alternative, and in maneuvering
remains pro-
their consequences, as long as the planner
outcome of the
fessionally disinterested in the eventual
comes closer to
evaluation. In this way, each alternative
through some of the
being judged on its merits rather than
procedural bias outlined here.
192
Evaluation Techniques
chapters of this
As has been the pattern in previous
operational considerations
work, the discussion now turns to
of evaluation, beginning with
those simpler in concept and
that approach the
proceeding along a continuum to those
model. As a general
conceptual Steger and Lakshmanan
operational techniques is
comment, the use of any of these
available for the
partially a function of the resources
193
Intuitive Methods
The simplest and most direct evaluative methods are
those based on intuition. The decision makers select their
preferences from among the alternatives open to them seem-
ingly without analysis, drawing intuitive guidance from their
own experience. As outlined earlier, this is their pre-
rogative and, once taken, the discussion is closed. There
is little the planner can do but acquiesce.
There is nothing necessarily wrong in this method as
long as three conditions are met. First, the alternatives
prepared by the planner must each be viable and not, as may
occasionally be the case, consist of one or two viable
alternatives with the remainder being "straw men". Indeed
the providing of non-viable alternatives to the decision
maker is non-professional behavior and implies decision
making by the planner, a violation of his advisory authority.
All the alternatives considered should be feasible and the
choice of any should be a matter of relative preference, not
the
Tightness or wrongness. The second condition follows from
first, that while the planner may indeed harbor personal
preferences he should remain professionally disinterested
in the outcome. Third, the client constituency should have
the decision
such faith and trust in the decision makers that
prefer-
makers need not have to analytically defend their
ences .
the third.
The most seldom met of these conditions is
decision
There is also no a priori reason to catagorize
ignore the
makers as so naive that they will consciously
194
work.
The equivalent uniform annual cost method disregards
operating
benefits and combines all investment costs and all
costs into a single annual figure. This annual figure is
if such
equal to all costs associated with the alternative
life of the
costs were distributed equally over the economic
the
alternative. Residual or terminal values at the end of
. .
195
that currently.
196
here
The six economic models of evaluation described
following
become somewhat mechanically limited as any of the
197
198
Table VII-1
N- No N ... N.
3
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11 12 13
U U u ... u
21 22 23 2j
u u u ... u
31 32 33 3j
• • • • •
• • • • • •
••• U
U
il
U
i2 "13 U
200
J = 1
a probability of occurrance, P..
If the probabilities of occurrance of the states of
nature are unknown, there is no one best criterion for
selecting an alternative. There are instead several such
criteria, the selection of which depends to a large degree
upon the policies and attitudes of the decision makers.
The Wald maximin criterion suggests that the decision
maker should always be pessimistic and select the alterna-
tive with the largest minimum utility, the maximum minimum
or maximin.
The Hurwicz maximax criterion suggests that the decision
maker should always be optimistic and select the alternative
with the largest maximum utility, the maximum maximum or
maximax.
The sensitivity of the decision to the range of criteria
between the maximin and the maximax is easily investigated by
synthesizing probabilities on the states of nature. This
could result in a coefficient of optimism which approximates
the expected value criterion.
The Savage minimax criterion suggests that the decision
maker should select that alternative which will minimize
the regret he may feel having chosen an alternative and then
discovering which state of nature will occur. Regret is
measured by the difference between the maximum utility and
all others under each state of nature. The decision maker
then selects the alternative with the minimum largest regret,
the minimum maximum or minimax.
201
Table VII-2
Goal description:
Relative weight :
Relative
(7\~
2
Relative
%
Incidence weight Costs Benefits weight Costs Benefits
Group a 1 A D 5
Group b 3 H 4 R
Group c 1 L 3 S
Group d 2 2
Group e 1 K 1
} U
£ £
Goal description: ST
Relative weight: 5 4
Relative Relative
Incidence weight Costs Benefits weight Costs Benefits
Group a 1 N 1 Q R
Group b 2 2 s T
Group c 3 M 1 V W
Group d 4 2
Group e 4 1
£ £
. .
203
U. = 1.
J
j = 1
plan. Thus;
U. = "*> e. .
•
u., where there are i plans and j
j - 1
goals and objectives.
The alternative with the highest cumulative utility
is preferred.
Schimpeler has also developed an extension of his
model to weight the values of various socio-economic groups
partici-
of the total population according to their numerical
pation in that total.
ill
U. = u!1 ,
2
UT +
+ TT ,
. . .
„k
uy +
i
.
. ..
P
uT;
IT and
L
u . e. .
, where
j - 1
U. = the total utility of alternative i;
205
Summary
The previous section has considered some operational or
near operational methods of evaluating alternative urban
plans. If it is clear that there is no global operational
solution to the problem of plan evaluation, it is also
clear that progress toward that solution is being made.
It remains for the urban planner, working in context,
to design evaluative procedures somewhat ad hoc .In addition
to the conceptual and operational constraints outlined here,
he will find, of course, institutional, legal, and resource
constraints affecting his chosen methodology.
Manheim (1962) has conceptually described evaluative
methodologies as necessarily being communicable, repeatable,
comparable and revisable. To be communicable, the process
that a
of evaluation should be explicitly enough defined so
second party may follow it. If the process yields the same
•
207
A Note on Practice
Boyce, Day and McDonald have researched the evaluation
strategies and techniques of several major transportation
and land use planning processes. Their research is beyond
the scope of, but an excellent adjunct to the material
covered in this chapter. Some of their conclusions are
herewith included to demonstrate how various emphases of
208
210
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Conclusions
The problem of urban planning evaluation is multi-
dimensional and any group of procedures employed by the
planner must give due account to each of these dimensions.
The states of nature and the alternative plans them-
selves are the two dimensions that provide the framework
for the others. With these, the planner must consider the
sectors,
groups of people (or economic sectors or industrial
etc.) and their degree of participation, their
values, and
over these
the distributional effects of the alternatives
the
groups. He must consider the likely effectiveness of
alternatives, judged in some way that is relevant.
social
To these dimensions, the planner must add the
considera-
and cultural effects of evaluation with attendant
tions of roles, strategies and procedures.
measures
All these effects must usually be reduced to
and to guide
of resources to compare costs and benefits
programming. The best alternatives are those that are the
the word.
most profitable, in the grandest sense of
into time,
All of this occurs over time, is projected
effects which
will operate in future time, and will have
are time dependent.
absolute
Considering all these dimensions, the only
relative.
of urban plan evaluation is that it is
Notes
Evaluation
1 Wilbur A. Steger and T. R. Lakshmanan, "Plan
Methodologies: Some Aspects of Decision Requirements
Vi
and Analytical Response, p. 69.
Evaluating
2. Morris Hill, "A Goals-Achievements Matrix for
Alternative Plans," p. 23.
212
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
7. Ibid. , p. 6.
:
213
CHAPTER VIII
IMPLEMENTATION
215
Substantive Scope
The substantive scope axis of the conceptual model
measures the continuum of implementation actions dealing
with the substance of the plan. Of course, such actions are
themselves a function of many variables, but measured along
this axis they can be said to approximate two largely
inseparable conditions: first, the degree to which the
goals and objectives of the client constituency identified
in the planning process are congruent with those actually
1
216
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219
Areal Scope
Along the areal scope axis of the implementation
phase, the planner is most concerned with problems arising
from the multiplicity of governmental units in the area
affected by the plan. It is not uncommon for a metro-
politan area in the United States to have tens of such units
and, in larger metropolises, hundreds.
Of these, a major fraction may be affected by the plan
and, of more consequence in this discussion, a somewhat
lesser fraction partake in its implementation. Hopefully
one of these units will be designated and clearly recognized
as the lead activity, with the others playing a subordinate
role. Whether or not such a hierarchal organization of
units may exist, if the planner is to participate in the
implementation phase, it will probably require him to
220
Procedural Scope
Planning implementation is not apolitical and the
procedural scope axis provides a conceptual measure of the
planner's necessary behavior in the political arena. While
not unprofessional, such behavior has been traditionally
regarded by some as outside the professional skills of urban
planning. Rabinovitz (1967) has noted this strain between
the role of planning and the role of effectuation. Since,
however, the success of planning is tied to the success of
the political system, the planner must be prepared to marshall
influence in those political systems too weak to support the
necessary implementation. To require such behavior of the
.
222
223
Operational Considerations
The conceptual model of the planning process has
served as a means of establishing the need for the planner
to take an active part in implementation. The plan as a
document standing alone may indeed fire the imagination and
enthusiasm of those who witness it, but its implementation
occurs in the realm of politics with the attendant need for
persuasion, incentives, penalities, codification and
legislation, procedures, publicity, power and much supportive
activity.
,
224
225
227
229
Table VIII-1
230
Land Rock
Water
etc .
Air
233
Summary
This chapter has attempted to trace the difficult and
tortuous path of implementation, first conceptually and then
operationally.
235
Notes
7. Ibid, p. 217.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
238
BIBLIOGRAPHY
19W.
Anton, Thomas J., "Politics and Planning in a Swedish Suburb,"
Journal of the American Institute of Planners July ,
WUT.
Bacon, Edmund N., "Urban Process," The Conscience of the
City Daedalus The Journal of the American Academy
, ,
March, 1971.
239
1970.
240
T9W.
Dahl , Robert, Who Governs ?, New Haven, Connecticut, Yale
University Press, 1961.
Davidoff, Paul, and Thomas A. Reiner, "A Choice Theory of
Planning," Journal of the American Institute of
Planners May, 1962 ,
1969.
1954.
Publications, 1969.
1964.
Hansen, Walter G., "How Accessibility Shapes Land Use",
Journal of the American Institute of Planners May, ,
1959.
242
243
Press, 1968.
Prentice-Hall, 1960.
244
1970.
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246
247
General References
T9F5.
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1968.
January, 1970.
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249
November 1965,
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250
251
September, 1968.
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252
Board, 1962.
September-October, 1963.
December, 1968.
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253
October, 1966.
19W.
"The Planner in Emerging Urban Society - A Confrontation,"
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November, 1969.
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Winston, 1970.
255
TWT.
Shaffer, Margaret T. "Attitude Techniques in Action," an
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Highways, 1966.
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VITA
i
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Thesis
136244
01474 Dames
The urban planning
process.