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    Tugas 2 Indah Fitriany Purwaningtyas - 01012622024017

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    This document summarizes solutions to quantitative analysis problems from a management textbook. It addresses two problems: 1) forecasting air conditioner demand based on outside temperature, and 2) evaluating travel expenses using a multiple regression model. The regression model is found to have low predictive power, suggesting additional variables should be included to improve the model's validity.

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    Tugas 2 Indah Fitriany Purwaningtyas - 01012622024017

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    Indah Fitriany Purwaningtyas
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    This document summarizes solutions to quantitative analysis problems from a management textbook. It addresses two problems: 1) forecasting air conditioner demand based on outside temperature, and 2) evaluating travel expenses using a multiple regression model. The regression model is found to have low predictive power, suggesting additional variables should be included to improve the model's validity.

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    This document summarizes solutions to quantitative analysis problems from a management textbook. It addresses two problems: 1) forecasting air conditioner demand based on outside temperature, and 2) evaluating travel expenses using a multiple regression model. The regression model is found to have low predictive power, suggesting additional variables should be included to improve the model's validity.

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    © All Rights Reserved
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    45 views4 pages

    Tugas 2 Indah Fitriany Purwaningtyas - 01012622024017

    Uploaded by

    Indah Fitriany Purwaningtyas
    This document summarizes solutions to quantitative analysis problems from a management textbook. It addresses two problems: 1) forecasting air conditioner demand based on outside temperature, and 2) evaluating travel expenses using a multiple regression model. The regression model is found to have low predictive power, suggesting additional variables should be included to improve the model's validity.

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    of 4

    TUGAS PENYELESAIAN PROBLEM 4.9 DAN 4.

    17

    DARI BUKU QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS FOR MANAGEMENT

    Dibuat untuk memenuhi salah satu tugas mata kuliah Analisa Kuantitatif

    Disusun Oleh:

    Indah Fitriany Purwaningtyas 01012622024017

    Dosen Pengajar: Prof. Dr. H. Didik Susetyo, M.Si

    JURUSAN MAGISTER MANAJEMEN

    FAKULTAS EKONOMI

    UNIVERSITAS SRIWIJAYA

    2020
    1. Problem 4.9
    John Smith has developed the following forecasting model:
    Ŷ = 36 + 4,3 X1
    Where:
    Ŷ = Demand for K10 air conditioners
    𝑋1 = The outside temperature (⸰F)
    Condition:
    a. Forecast the demand for K10 when the temperature is 70°F.
    b. What is the demand for a temperature of 80°F?
    c. What is the demand for a temperature of 90°F?
    With formula:
    Ŷ = 36 + 4,3 X1
    Solution:
    a. For X1 = 70°F
    Ŷ = 36 + 4,3 X1
    = 36 + 4.3 (70°F)
    = 337
    b. For X1 = 80°F
    Ŷ = 36 + 4,3 X1
    = 36 + 4,3 (80°F)
    = 380
    c. For X1 = 90°F
    Ŷ = 36 + 4,3 X1
    = 36 + 4,3 (90°F)
    = 423

    2. Problem 4.17
    Accountants at the firm Walker and Walker believed that several traveling
    executives submit unusually high travel vouchers when they return from business
    trips. The accountants took a sample of 200 vouchers submitted from the past year;
    they then developed the following multiple regression equation relating expected
    travel cost (Y) to number of days on the road (X1 ) and distance traveled (X2 ) in
    miles:
    Ŷ = $90,00 + $48,50 X1 + $0,40 X2
    Condition:
    The coefficient of correlation computed was 0,68.
    a. If Thomas Williams returns from a 300-mile trip that took him out of town
    for five days, what is the expected amount that he should claim as expenses?
    b. Williams submitted a reimbursement request for $685; what should the
    accountant do?
    c. Comment on the validity of this model. Should any other variables be
    included? Which ones? Why?
    With formula:
    Ŷ = $90,00 + $48,50 X1 + $0,40 X2
    Solution:
    a. The expected amount that Thomas Williams have to claim as expenses:
    Known:
    X1 = 5 days (number of days on the road )
    X2 = 300 miles (distance traveled)
    So the answer is:
    Ŷ = $90,00 + $48,50 X1 + $0,40 X2
    = $90,00 + $48,50 (5) + $0,40 (300)
    = $90,00 + $242,5 + $120
    = $452,5

    b. First Solution:
    Based on the equation model above, we can calculate that the expected
    amount that Thomas Williams have to claim as expenses from a 300-mile
    trip that took him out of town for five days is only $452,5, meanwhile the
    reimbursement requested by Thomas is $685 and it was above the
    prediction. I think, the accountant should ask Thomas why it can be
    happened and what's the additional expenses that can make the amount
    being above from the prediction. Thomas have to explain one by one about
    his additional expenses and present the evidences to the accountant.
    Second Solution:
    If Thomas can present the evidences of the additional expenses to the
    accountant, we can connect the possibility of correlation between this case
    and the model equation. With correlation of coefficient (r) = 0,68 it means
    measurement between two variable (X1 and X2).
    From r, we can find r2 = (0,682) = 0,4624.
    The r2 explain about the proportion of variability in Y that is explained by
    the regression equation. Because the r2 is less than 0,5 or 50% so the validity
    of this regression r2 is low. I think the accountant might pay the
    reimbursement because the regression r2 is low.

    c. The validity of this equation model


    After we calculate the value of r2, we can found the proportion of variability
    in Y that is explained by the regression equation is low (0,4624). From the
    correlation of coefficient that measure of the strength of relationship
    between two variable is 0,68. To make the regression can be more valid, the
    accountant can increase the number of sample or add any other variable such
    as accommodation (hotel), food and beverage cost, laundry, transport
    during in the location, or anything else. Because that variables is very
    important to fulfil employee's daily needs during the duty.

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