Circoutcomes 119 006260
Circoutcomes 119 006260
Circoutcomes 119 006260
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
BACKGROUND: Heart failure (HF) in patients with type 2 diabetes Bochra Zareini , MD
mellitus (T2D) has received growing attention. We examined the effect Paul Blanche, PhD
of HF development on prognosis compared with other cardiovascular or Maria D’Souza, PhD
renal diagnoses in patients with T2D. Mariam Elmegaard Malik,
MD
METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients with new T2D diagnosis patients Caroline Holm Nørgaard,
were identified between 1998 and 2015 through Danish nationwide MD
registers. At yearly landmark timepoints after T2D diagnosis, we estimated Christian Selmer, MD, PhD
the 5-year risks of death, 5-year risk ratios, and decrease in lifespan Gunnar Gislason, MD, PhD
within 5 years associated with the development of HF, ischemic heart Søren Lund Kristensen,
disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, and chronic kidney disease. MD, PhD
A total of 153 403 patients with newly diagnosed T2D were followed Lars Køber, MD, DMSc
for a median of 9.7 years (interquartile range, 5.8–13.9) during which Christian Torp-Pedersen,
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MD, DMSc
48 087 patients died. The 5-year risk ratio of death associated with HF
Morten Schou, MD, PhD
development 5 years after T2D diagnosis was 3 times higher (CI, 2.9–3.1)
Morten Lamberts, MD,
than patients free of diagnoses (CI, 2.9–3.1). Five-year risk ratios were PhD
lower for ischemic heart disease (1.3 [1.3–1.4]), stroke (2.2 [2.1–2.2]),
chronic kidney disease (1.7 [1.7–1.8]), and peripheral artery disease (2.3
[2.3–2.4]). The corresponding decrease in lifespan within 5 years when
compared with patients free of diagnoses (in months) was HF 11.7 (11.6–
11.8), ischemic heart disease 1.6 (1.5–1.7), stroke 6.4 (6.3–6.5), chronic
kidney disease 4.4 (4.3–4.6), and peripheral artery disease 6.9 (6.8–7.0).
HF in combination with any other diagnosis imposed the greatest risk
of death and decrease in life span compared with other combinations.
Supplemental analysis led to similar results when stratified according to
age, sex, and comorbidity status, and inclusion period.
CONCLUSIONS: HF development, at any year since T2D diagnosis, was
associated with the highest 5-year absolute and relative risk of death, and
decrease in lifespan within 5 years, when compared with development of
other cardiovascular or renal diagnoses.
https://www.ahajournals.org/journal/
circoutcomes
Data Sources
WHAT IS KNOWN In Denmark, every citizen is provided with a unique per-
sonal identification number given at birth or immigration
• Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus have a
and used throughout the Civil Registration System, which
higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease
allows for cross-linkage of health and administrative data-
and chronic renal disease.
bases at the individual level and enables near-complete fol-
• Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus enrolled in
low-up. In Denmark, equal access to the health care system
trials have higher rates of death following cardio-
is granted to every citizen, including primary and hospital
vascular or renal events.
care. Data were collected from 4 nationwide registers made
available through Statistics Denmark, a government-based
WHAT THE STUDY ADDS institution responsible for maintenance of multiple registers
• We describe the absolute risk of survival among after anonymization and encryption of the personal identifi-
real-life patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who cation number. The Danish National Patient Registry entails
develop cardiovascular and renal disease. information on all hospital admissions from 1977 onwards.
• While heart failure is not the most frequent Each hospital contact is coded with a primary diagnosis
comorbid disease, it is the most fatal condition in and one or more secondary diagnoses according to The
a real-world cohort of patients with type 2 diabe- International Classification of Disease, Eighth Revision (ICD-
tes mellitus. 8) until 1993, and ICD-10 from 1994 onwards. Surgical
• This association is present regardless of when the procedures are coded using the Nordic Medico-Statistical
patients develop the cardiovascular or renal dis- Committee Classification of Surgical Procedures. The
ease after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Danish National Prescription Registry holds information
(dosage, dates, and Anatomic Therapeutic Chemical codes)
on all prescriptions dispensed from a pharmacy since 1995.
H
eart failure (HF) has in recent years been rec- The Danish Cause of Death Registry entails information on
ognized as an important clinical end point in date, cause, and place of death from 1970 onwards. The
Danish Civil registry holds information on age, gender, and
randomized clinical trials of patients with type
date of birth. The type of registry and data extracted from
2 diabetes mellitus (T2D), in particular, after the results each registry is described in Table I in the Data Supplement.
from randomized controlled trials of sodium-glucose-
2-transporter (SGLT2) inhibitors showed benefit on
Study Population
cardiovascular death and HF hospitalisation.1–3 Sev-
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Table. Patient Characteristics of Patients With T2D Free of Diagnoses years following onset of T2D was 3 times higher (CI,
at Inclusion
2.9–3.1) than that of patients without cardiovascular
T2D Population and renal disease. Corresponding RR estimates were
N 153 405 lower for patients who developed IHD (RR, 1.3 [95%
Age, median (IQR) 64.0 (55–72) CI, 1.3–1.4]), stroke (RR, 2.2 [95% CI, 2.1–2.2]), CKD
Sex (male), n (%) 82 204 (53.6)
(RR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.7–1.8]), and PAD (RR, 2.3 [95%
CI, 2.3–2.4]; Figure 2 and Table VII in the Data Supple-
Comorbidities at inclusion, n (%)
ment). Patients who developed HF within the 5 years
Atrial fibrillation 4972 (3.2)
after diagnosis of T2D lived on average 11.7 months
Cancer 5909 (3.9)
less than patients free of cardiovascular and renal dis-
COPD 3748 (2.4) ease (95% CI, 11.6–11.8). By comparison, we esti-
Hypertension 16 662 (10.9) mated smaller decreases in lifespan for other diagno-
Medication at inclusion, n (%) ses: IHD (1.6 months [95% CI, 1.5–1.7]), stroke (6.4
Statins 52 787 (34.4) months [95% CI, 6.3–6.5]), CKD (4.4 months [95%
ACE inhibitor/ARBs 64 031 (41.7)
CI, 4.3–4.6]), and PAD (6.9 months [95% CI, 6.8–7.0];
Figure 2 and Table VIII in the Data Supplement).
β-blockers 32 921 (21.5)
vascular or renal disease in the landmark cohorts was Supplement). Patients who developed a combination of
similar among groups at early landmarks and increased IHD and stroke, CKD, or PAD 5 years after T2D diagno-
at later landmarks, especially among patients with IHD sis had a 5-year risk of death below 40%. The 5-year
(Table V in the Data Supplement). In patients having 2 RR of death, with patients with T2D free of cardiovas-
diagnoses, the most frequent combination at all land- cular or renal disease as reference, was highest among
mark years was IHD and HF. Other combinations did patients with HF in combination with stroke (3.4 [95%
not reach above 2 percent of the landmark population CI, 3.3–3.5]), CKD (4.0 [95% CI, 3.9–4.1]), or PAD (3.1
each year (Table IV in the Data Supplement). Patients [95% CI, 3.0–3.1]) while other combinations did not
with HF in combination with stroke, CKD, or PAD had exceed a RR estimate above 3.0 (Figure 3 and Table
similar age distribution and were more likely to suffer VII in the Data Supplement). The number of months
from cancer, atrial fibrillation, and chronic obstructive lost in a 5-year span for patients with T2D developing
pulmonary disease compared with patients with IHD HF in combination with stroke, CKD, PAD, or IHD was
in combination with stroke, CKD, or PAD (Figures IV 16.2 (95% CI, 16.1–16.4), 18.2 (95% CI, 18.1–18.3),
and V in the Data Supplement). The median duration 14.3 (95% CI, 14.2–14.4), and 11 (95% CI, 10.9–11.2)
of the diagnoses before the landmark year was similar months, respectively. Corresponding estimates among
between groups (Table V in the Data Supplement). patients developing IHD in combination with stroke,
CKD, or PAD was 8 to 9 months (Figure 3 and Table VIII
in the Data Supplement).
Prognosis After Developing 1
Cardiovascular or Renal Disease
Prognosis According to Early Versus Late
The highest 5-year risk of death among patients alive
5 years after T2D diagnosis was found among those Inclusion Period
who had developed HF (47.6% [95% CI, 44.8–50.3]). A total of 92 837 patients were included between 1998
By comparison, the risk was <35% for patients who and 2008 and 60 568 patients were included between
developed IHD, stroke, CKD, and PAD (Figure 2 and 2009 and 2015. Most patients were males in both
Table VI in the Data Supplement). The 5-year RR of cohorts (54.1% compared with 52.8%). Patients includ-
death of patients who developed HF within the 5 ed in 2009 to 2015 were more likely to be in active treat-
Figure 2. The 5-y risk of death, the 5-y risk ratio of death when compared with patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) free of cardiovascular or
renal disease, and the expected decrease in lifespan in relation to development of 1 cardiovascular or renal diagnosis.
Vertical bars represent 95% CIs. CKD indicates chronic kidney disease; HF, heart failure; IHD, ischemic heart disease; and PAD, peripheral artery disease.
ment with statins (50.3% versus 24.1%), ACE inhibitors/ analysis. HF alone or in combination with other cardio-
ARBs (52.8% versus 34.5%), β-blockers (25.4% versus vascular or renal disease conferred the highest 1-year
18.9%), acetylsalicylic acid (25.5% versus 22.6%), and risk of death (Tables X and XI in the Data Supplement).
Ca channel blockers (27.7% versus 18.8%; Table IX in
Subgroup Analysis
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Figure 3. The 5-y risk of death, the 5-y risk ratio of death when compared with patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) free of cardiovascular or
renal disease, and the expected decrease in lifespan in relation to development of 2 cardiovascular or renal diagnoses.
Vertical bars represent 95% CI. CKD indicates chronic kidney disease; HF, heart failure; IHD, ischemic heart disease; and PAD, peripheral artery disease.
formed an additional analysis, where we only included of death compared with patients with T2D free of car-
patients, who received a diagnosis 1 year before the diovascular disease. While IHD was the most prevalent
landmark year. The risk of death associated with the disease in the landmark population, risk of death associ-
receiving of 1 or 2 diagnoses did not differ from our ated with IHD development alone or in combination with
main results (Figures VI and VII in the Data Supplement). stroke, CKD, or PAD was lower than any disease combi-
We stratified patients at each landmark year accord- nation that included HF or HF alone. This association was
ing to gender, age (above and below 65 years), and present, when we stratified the cohort according to age,
presence of comorbidities. HF alone or in combination gender, comorbidities at inclusion, and year of inclusion.
with CKD, stroke, or PAD was associated with the high- Excess risk of death in individuals with T2D has
est absolute 5-year risk of death in all subgroups (Fig- been well documented and has been attributed to an
ure 4A and 4B). increased risk of cardiovascular disease.21 Indeed, life
expectancy in patients with T2D has been estimated
as 5 to 12 years lower than the general population.22
DISCUSSION Additionally, several studies report that patients with
In a nationwide real-life cohort of >150 000 patients with T2D have a poorer prognosis following cardiovascu-
newly diagnosed T2D, we found that HF development lar and renal complications than the general popula-
alone or in combination with stroke, CKD, or PAD con- tion. Most studies focus on a single complication only,
ferred the highest 5-year risk of death. This translated hence, information on the impact of more than one
into an average reduction of 12 to 25 months lived within diabetic complication or the relative magnitude of each
the next 5 years and a 3- to 5-fold increased 5-year risk complication is lacking.8,9,23–25
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Figure 4. The 5-y risk associated with development of a cardiovascular or renal diagnosis 5 y after type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) diagnosis accord-
ing to sex and comorbidities at inclusion in different subgroups of T2D and cardiovascular or renal diagnoses.
(A) in patients developing one diagnosis, (B) in patients developing IHD in combination with other diagnoses and (C) in patients developing HF in combinations
with other diagnoses. Vertical bars represent 95% CI. AF indicates atrial fibrillation; CKD, chronic kidney disease; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; HF,
heart failure; HTN, hypertension; IHD, ischemic heart disease; and PAD, peripheral vascular disease.
We included HF and assessed the risk of all-cause tor agonists have shown promising results in patients
death according to time since T2D diagnosis, a novel with T2D.1,15 Treatment effects of different antidiabetic
way of addressing prognosis in an incident T2D popu- drugs are not covered in the present study as focus was
lation and the registries ensures lifelong follow-up of on comparison of different diagnoses. Future studies
real-world patients. We defined T2D as the first-time could potentially separate different antidiabetic drugs
redeemed prescription of a noninsulin antidiabetic drug. effect on certain patient’s risk profile for a more per-
We wanted to select a homogenous low-risk population sonalized approach in diabetes mellitus management.
primarily diagnosed in the primary sector. Our findings
were consistent with Swedish data, showing the haz-
ard ratio estimates of death in patients with T2D, when Limitations
compared with patients with myocardial infarction, was Several limitations of the present study should be
highest among patients developing HF, followed by acknowledged. First, lack of information on clinical
CKD, stroke, and amputation.26 In another study, the factors reflecting HF and T2D severity including clinical
risk of death within 1 month after a T2D complication assessment of functional class and smoking status, vital
was highest among patients with myocardial infarc- parameters, for example, heart rate and blood pres-
tion, followed by stroke, CKD, HF, and amputation.27 sure, biochemical parameters such as N-terminal pro-
We included unstable and stable angina pectoris in the b-type natriuretic peptide, glucose levels, and hemo-
definition of IHD, arguably ending with a broader low- globin A1c. Second, we did not have any information
risk population not comparable with acute myocardial on the presence of other microvascular complications,
infarction. A similar argument extends to patients with which serve as to highlight the progression and severity
CKD in contrast to using patients with end-stage renal of diabetes mellitus illness in patients.
disease or renal replacement therapy. Additionally, we
did not find major differences in 5-year risks of death
among patients with HF and IHD (45.5%, at landmark Clinical Implications
year 5) and HF alone (47.6%, at landmark year 5). This Although not the most frequent complication, HF was
is in contrast to existing literature, where ischemic HF is clearly associated with the most unfavorable prognosis
associated with a higher risk of death compared with in patients with T2D. When providing care for patients
nonischemic HF among patients with T2D.28–30 Howev- with T2D, we hope that our findings contribute to
er, the findings of the present study must be interpreted
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sity Hospital, Denmark. Department of Endocrinology, Amager and Hvidovre 12. Kristensen SL, Preiss D, Jhund PS, Squire I, Cardoso JS, Merkely B,
University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark (C.S.). Department of Cardiology, Martinez F, Starling RC, Desai AS, Lefkowitz MP, Rizkala AR, Rouleau JL,
Rigshospitalet University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark (S.L.K., L.K.). Depart- Shi VC, Solomon SD, Swedberg K, Zile MR, McMurray JJV, Packer M.
ments of Clinical Investigation and Cardiology, Nordsjaellands Hospital, Hill- Risk related to pre–diabetes mellitus and diabetes mellitus in heart fail-
erød, Denmark (C.T.-P.). ure with reduced ejection fraction: insights from prospective compari-
son of ARNI with ACEI to determine impact on global mortality and
morbidity in Heart Failure Trial. Circ Heart Fail 2016;9:e002560. doi:
Sources of Funding 10.1161/CIRCHEARTFAILURE.115.002560
The study was supported by the Danish Heart Association and an unrestricted 13. McMurray JJ, Gerstein HC, Holman RR, Pfeffer MA. Heart failure: a cardio-
hospital grant from Boehringer Ingelheim. The funding sources had no role in vascular outcome in diabetes that can no longer be ignored. Lancet Diabe-
study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation of data, writing the tes Endocrinol. 2014;2:843–851. doi: 10.1016/S2213-8587(14)70031-2
article or the decision to submit for publication. The corresponding author had 14. Benjamin EJ, Virani SS, Callaway CW, Chamberlain AM, Chang AR,
full access to all data and final responsibility for the submission. Cheng S, Chiuve SE, Cushman M, Delling FN, Deo R, de Ferranti SD,
Ferguson JF, Fornage M, Gillespie C, Isasi CR, Jiménez MC, Jordan LC,
Judd SE, Lackland D, Lichtman JH, Lisabeth L, Liu S, Longenecker CT,
Disclosures Lutsey PL, Mackey JS, Matchar DB, Matsushita K, Mussolino ME, Nasir K,
Unrelated to the present work, Dr Køber reports honorarium as speaker from O’Flaherty M, Palaniappan LP, Pandey A, Pandey DK, Reeves MJ, Ritchey MD,
Novartis, AstraZeneca, and Boehringer. Dr D’Souza reports grants from the Rodriguez CJ, Roth GA, Rosamond WD, Sampson UKA, Satou GM,
Danish Heart Foundation and the Velux Foundation. The other authors report Shah SH, Spartano NL, Tirschwell DL, Tsao CW, Voeks JH, Willey JZ,
no conflicts. Wilkins JT, Wu JH, Alger HM, Wong SS, Muntner P. Heart disease and stroke
statistics—2018 update: a report from the American Heart Association.
Circulation. 2018;137:e67–e492. doi: 10.1161/CIR.0000000000000558
15. Nauck MA, Tornøe K, Rasmussen S, Treppendahl MB, Marso SP; LEADER
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