5 | Water Supply Planning and Development 1

UNIT 5: Estimation of water demand

5.0 Intended Learning Outcomes

At the end of the lesson, you should be able to create estimate of water demand and
related requirements.

5.1. Introduction

The understanding of comprehensive water resources planning and management is

becoming increasingly important as the demand for water increases and the reliability of
existing supplies decreases, not just in the Philippines, but all over the world. In this learning
packet, we will discuss the course CES 3: Water Supply Planning and Development (3-unit
subject) with the following topics, composed of 9 Learning Packets (LP):
LP 1. Importance of safe drinking water on public health.

LP 2. Common sources of water supply: Surface water, Groundwater, Mixed water

resources, Rainwater.

LP 3. Assessment of water quantity: Surface monitoring, Groundwater.

LP 4. Water characteristics and drinking water: Parameters and standards with

regards to physical, chemical, bacteriological and organoleptical properties; Water
related diseases; Factors affecting water quality; Sources of environmental
contaminants.

LP 5. Estimation of water demand: Classification of water use, Quantifying present

and future use, domestic water demand, Industrial, commercial, agricultural and
other types of water demands, Fluctuations in water use, factor of inequality low rate
patters.

LP 6. Development of water sources: Groundwater, Construction of wells,

Environmental effects and sea water intrusion, Surface water, Watershed and
reservoir management and dam siltation.

LP 7. Introduction to conventional water purification processes: Physical treatment

process, Chemical treatment processes.

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LP 8. Water transport and distribution systems: General procedure and layout of

masterplan of a distribution system, Design criteria for normal and fire demand,
Hydraulic design of branched and grid systems, Pipes, appurtenances and pipe
laying, metering, flow and pressure control.

LP 9. Introduction to water laws, codes, finance and water rates

This learning packet (LP) is a self-directed material, wherein you are going to learn on
your own. This learning packet has series of instruction, discussion, and assessment of
learning about the course content.
At the end of the lessons in this LP you need to complete the student’s task and submit
back to me by using the packaging material in this LP.

5.2 Estimation of water demand

System water demand is the quantity of water that the treatment plant must produce in
order to meet all water needs in the community. Water demand includes water delivered to
the system to meet the needs of consumers, water supply for firefighting and system
flushing, and water required to properly operate the treatment facilities. Additionally,
virtually all systems have a certain amount of leakage that cannot be economically removed
and thus total demand typically includes some leakage. The difference between the amount
of water sold and the amount delivered to the system is referred to as unaccounted water.
Unaccounted water can result from system flushing, leakage, firefighting, meter
inaccuracies, and other non-metered usage. Water demand varies seasonally with the lowest
usage in winter months and the highest usage during summer months. Variations in
demand also occur with respect to time of day. Diurnal peaks typically occur during the
morning and early evening periods, while the lowest usage occurs during nighttime hours.

5.2.1 Classification of water use

Water can be used for direct and indirect purposes. Direct purposes include
bathing, drinking, and cooking, while examples of indirect purposes are the use of
water in processing wood to make paper and in producing steel for automobiles. The

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bulk of the world’s water use is for agriculture, industry, and electricity. The most
common water uses include:

• Drinking and Household Needs

• Recreation
• Industry and Commerce
• Agriculture
• Thermoelectricity/Energy

Image adapted from Aquifer Depletion and Water Usage https://slideplayer.com/slide/1518915/

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28.52 billion m³ of water were withdrawn from various sources in the Philippines in 2000:
74% (21.10 billion m³) was used for agricultural purposes, 9% (2.57 billion m³) for industrial
processes, and 17% (4.85 billion m³) for domestic consumption.
Source: Asian Development Bank; Asia-Pacific Water Forum (2007). "Country Paper Philippines. Asian Water
Development Outlook 2007". Retrieved April 14, 2008. , p. 5

In 2000, the average water production was 175 liters per day per capita (l/d/c). According
to the National Water Resources Board (NWRB), the average consumption of water was
118 l/d/c in 2004. The highest consumption was recorded in the East Zone of Metro Manila
as 232 l/d/c.
Source: National Water Resources Board (NWRB); Local Water Utilities Administration (LWUA); Department of the Interior
and Local Government (DILG) Water and Sanitation Program (WSP) World Bank. "Philippines Towns Water Utilities 2004
Data Book". , p. 12; 36

5.2.2 Philippines Water Usage and Classification

"Revised Water Usage and Classification/Water Quality Criteria Amending Section

Nos.:68 and 69, Chapter III of the 1978 NPCC Rules and Regulations" and the DENR
Administrative Order No. 35, Series of 1990, "Revised Effluent Regulations of 1990,
Revising and Amending the Effluent Regulations of 1982," which were promulgated
on March 20, 1990.

DENR Administrative Order No. 34 divides water usage into:

1) fresh waters such as rivers, lakes and reservoirs, and

2) coastal waters and sea areas.
Fresh waters are classified into five categories, Class AA, A, B, C and D. Coastal
waters and sea areas are classified into four categories, Class SA, SB, SC and SD. The
Order sets water quality criteria for organic pollutants, etc. for each category.

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Water Usage and Classifications

A) Fresh Surface Water (river, lakes, reservoir, etc.)

Classification Beneficial Use

Class AA Public Water Supply Class 1. This class is intended primarily for waters having watersheds
which are uninhabited and otherwise protected and which require only approved disinfection in
order to meet the National standards for Drinking Water (NSDW) of the Philippines.
Class A Public Water Supply Class 2. For sources of water supply that will require complete treatment
(coagulation, sedimentation, filtration, and disinfection) in order to meet the NSDW.
Class B Recreational Water Class 1. For primarily contact recreation such as bathing, swimming, skin
diving, etc. (particularly those designated for tourism purpose.)
Class C a. Fishery Water for the propagation and growth of fish and other aquatic resources.
b. Recreational water class 2 (boating, etc)
c. Industrial Water supply class 1 (from manufacturing processes after treatment)

Class D 1. For agriculture, irrigation, live stocks watering, etc.)

2. Industrial Water supply class 2 (e.g. cooling, etc.) Other
3. inland waters by their quality belong to this classification.

Coastal and Marine Waters

Classification Beneficial Use
Class SA 1. Waters suitable for the propagation survival and harvesting of selfish, for commercial purposes.
2. Tourist Zones and national marine parks and reserves established under Presidential
Proclamation No. 1801; existing laws and/or declared as such by appropriate government
agency.
3. Coral reef parks and reserves designated by law and concerned authorities.
4. Waters suitable for the propagation survival and harvesting of selfish, for commercial purposes.
5. Tourist Zones and national marine parks and reserves established under Presidential
Proclamation No. 1801; existing laws and/or declared as such by appropriate government
agency.
6. Coral reef parks and reserves designated by law and concerned authorities.

Class SB 1. Recreational Water Class 1 (areas regularly used by the public for bathing swimming, skin
diving, etc.)
2. Fishery Water class 3 (spawning areas for Chanos chanos or “Bangus” and similar species.

Class CS 1. Recreational Water class 3 (e.g. boating, etc.)

2. Fishery Water class 2 (commercial and sustenance fishing).
3. Marchy and/or mangrove areas declared as fish and wildlife sanctuaries.

Class SD 1. Industrial Water supply class 2 (e.g. cooling, etc.)

2. Other coastal and marine waters, by their quality, belong to this classification.

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5.2.3 Quantifying present and future use

5.2.3.1 Quantifying present use

5.2.3.2 Estimation of Water Demand

In estimating the water demand, several factors should be considered e.g.

✓ the size of the city;

✓ its population

does matter when estimating the water demand. The higher the size of
population, the higher the demand will be. Estimation of water demand is
necessary to:

1. Calculate design flow

2. Determine the pumping power of machines to be used
3. Reservoir capacity
4. Pipe capacity

To estimate water demand, following parameters must be determined or

calculated.

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1. Average daily water consumption: It is based on complete one-year supply of

water. It is the total consumption during one year, divided by the population.
q = (Q / P x 365) lpcd (liters per capita per day);

2. Maximum daily consumption: It is the maximum amount of water used during

one day in the year. This amount is 180% of the average daily consumption
MDC = 1.8 x Avg. daily consumption. It is usually a working day (Monday) of
summer season.

3. Maximum weekly demand: The amount of water used by a population during

a whole single week in a study span of 1 year.

4. Fire water demand | Fire Demand: The amount of water used for firefighting is
termed as fire demand. Although, the amount of water used in firefighting is a
negligible part of the combine uses of water but the rate of flow and the volume
required may be so high during fire that it is a deciding factor for pumps,
reservoirs And distribution mains.

The quantity of water required for a community depends upon:

1. Forecasted population
2. Types and variation in demand (e.g. seasonal variation)
3. Maximum demand (Per day/Per month)
4. Fire demand
5. Rural demand and supplies
6. Appropriate / Available technology
Factors affecting the use of water

✓ Size of the city

✓ Industry and commerce
✓ Climate
✓ Time of the day
✓ Day of the week or month

5.2.3.2 Types of Water Demand

While designing the water supply scheme for a town or city, it is necessary
to determine the total quantity of a water required for various purposes by the

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city. As a matter of fact, the first duty of the engineer is to determine the water
demand of the town and then to find suitable water sources from where the
demand can be met. But as there are so many factors involved in demand of
water, it is not possible to accurately determine the actual demand. Certain
empirical formulae and thumb rules are employed in determining the water
demand, which is very near to the actual demand.

Following are the various types of water demands of a city or town:

• Domestic water demand

• Industrial demand
• Institution and commercial demand
• Demand for public use
• Fire demand
• Loses and wastes

Domestic water demand

The quantity of water required in the houses for drinking, bathing,

cooking washing etc. is called domestic water demand and mainly depends
upon the habits, social status, climatic conditions and customs of the people. In
developed countries this figure may be 350 litres/day/capita because of use of
air coolers, air conditioners, maintenance of lawns, automatic household
appliances.

Industrial demand

The water required in the industries mainly depends on the type of

industries, which are existing in the city. The water required by factories, paper
mills, Cloth mills, Cotton mills, Breweries, Sugar refineries etc. comes under
industrial use. The quantity of water demand for industrial purpose is around
20 to 25% of the total demand of the city.

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Institution and commercial demand

Universities, Institution, commercial buildings and commercial centers

including office buildings, warehouses, stores, hotels, shopping centers, health
centers, schools, temple, cinema houses, railway and bus stations etc. comes
under this category.

Demand for public use

Quantity of water required for public utility purposes such as for

washing and sprinkling on roads, cleaning of sewers, watering of public parks,
gardens, public fountains etc comes under public demand. To meet the water
demand for public use, provision of 5% of the total consumption is made
designing the water works for a city.

Fire Demand

Fire may take place due to faulty electric wires by short circuiting, fire
catching materials, explosions, bad intension of criminal people or any other
unforeseen events. If fires are not properly controlled and extinguished in
minimum possible time, they lead to serious damage and may burn cities. All
the big cities have full fire-fighting squads. As during the fire breakdown large
quantity of water is required for throwing it over the fire to extinguish it,
therefore provision is made in the water work to supply sufficient quantity of
water or keep as reserve in the water mains for this purpose. In the cities fire
hydrants are provided on the water mains at 100 to 150 m apart for fire demand.

The quantity of water required for firefighting is generally calculated by using

different empirical formulae.

Fire demand is calculated using the equation below.

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Losses and Waste

All the water, which goes in the distribution, pipes does not reach the
consumers.

The following are the reasons:

1. Losses due to defective pipe joints, cracked and broken pipes, faulty
valves and fittings.
2. Losses due to, consumers keep open their taps of public taps even when
they are not using the water and allow the continuous wastage of water.
3. Losses due to unauthorized and illegal connections. While estimating
the total quantity of water of a town; allowance of 15% of total quantity
of water is made to compensate for losses, thefts and wastage of water

5.2.3.3 Factors Affecting Per Capita Demand

The following are the main factors affecting per capita demand:

• Climatic conditions: The quantity of water required in hotter and dry places is
more than cold countries because of the use of air coolers, air conditioners,
sprinkling of water in lawns, gardens, courtyards, washing of rooms, more
washing of clothes and bathing etc. But in very cold countries sometimes the
quantity of water required may be more due to wastage, because at such places

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the people often keep their taps open and water continuously flows for fear of
freezing of water in the taps and use of hot water for keeping the rooms warm.

▪ Size of community: Water demand is more with increase of size fo town

because more water is required in street washing, running of sewers,
maintenance of parks and gardens.

▪ Living standard of the people: The per capita demand of the town increases
with the standard of living of the people because of the use of air conditioners,
room coolers, maintenance of lawns, use of flush, latrines and automatic home
appliances etc.

▪ Industrial and commercial activities: As the quantity of water required in

certain industries is much more than domestic demand, their presence in the
town will enormously increase per capita demand of the town. As a matter of
the fact the water required by the industries has no direct link with the
population of the town.

▪ Pressure in the distribution system: The rate of water consumption increase

in the pressure of the building and even with the required pressure at the
farthest point, the consumption of water will automatically increase. This
increase in the quantity is firstly due to use of water freely by the people as
compared when they get it scarcely and more water loss due to leakage,
wastage and thefts etc.

▪ System of sanitation: Per capita demand of the towns having water carriage
system will be more than the town where this system is not being used.

▪ Cost of water: The cost of water directly affects its demand. If the cost of water
is more, less quantity of water will be used by the people as compared when
the cost is low.

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5.2.3.4 Variations in Demand

The per capita demand of town is the average consumption of water for a year.
In practice it has been seen that this demand does not remain uniform throughout the
year but it various from season to season, even hour to hour.

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Seasonal Variations
The water demand varies from season to season. In summer the water demand
is maximum, because the people will use more water in bathing, cooling, lawn
watering and street sprinkling. This demand will become minimum in winter because
less water will be used in bathing and there will be no lawn watering. The variations
may be up to 15% of the average demand of the year.
Daily Variations
This variation depends on the general habits of people, climatic conditions and
character of city as industrial, commercial or residential. More water demand will be
on Sundays and holidays due to more comfortable bathing, washing etc as compared
to other working days. The maximum daily consumption is usually taken as 180% of
the average consumption.
Hourly Variations
On Sundays and other holidays, the peak hours may be about 8 A.M. due to
late awakening where as it may be 6 A.M. to 10 A.M. and 4 P.M. to 8 P.M. and
minimum flow may be between 12P.M. to 4P.M. when most of the people are sleeping.
But in highly industrial city where both day and night shifts are working, the
consumption in night may be more. The maximum consumption may be rise upto
200% that of average daily demand. The determination of this hourly variations is
most necessary, because on its basis the rate of pumping will be adjusted to meet up
the demand in all hours.

5.2.3.2 Quantifying future use

Forecasting

Water managers forecast future water demand for a variety of purposes. These
analyses can help managers understand spatial and temporal patterns of future water
use to optimize system operations, plan for future water purchases or system
expansion, or for future revenue and expenditures. There are several mathematical

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methods in use for estimating future demand; these include extrapolating historic
trends, correlating demand with socio-economic variables, or more detailed
simulation modeling. Models vary in complexity according to the number of variables
and the extent to which water users are disaggregated by sector, location, season, or
other factors. Models also vary according to the forecast horizon. Long-term
forecasting is typically more useful for infrastructure and capital planning whereas
short-term forecasts are more useful for setting water rates (Table 1).

Table adapted from WATER RATES: WATER DEMAND FORECASTING 2020/8/06. Retrieved from
https://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/water_rates_water_demand_forecasting.pdf

Traditional means of forecasting future water demand

The simplest and most traditional means of forecasting future water demand
has been to estimate current per-capita water consumption, usually measured as
gallons per capita per day (gpcd), and multiply this by expected future population.
Population estimates may be based on simple linear growth, a percent annual increase
(exponential growth), or more detailed analyses by demographers or forecasters. This
simple approach has drawbacks, as it does not account for changes in technology, the
economy, or culture over time. More detailed models may take into account a wide
variety of factors, such as changes to population, water prices (e.g., price elasticity);
the climate (e.g., weather variability is appropriate for short-term fore-casts while

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global climate models are useful for longer-term forecasts); customer behavior (e.g.,
increased conservation and efficiency); and new regulations.

Table adapted from WATER RATES: WATER DEMAND FORECASTING 2020/8/06. Retrieved from
https://pacinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/water_rates_water_demand_forecasting.pdf

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Population Forecasting

To determine the population of a town or city population of a town depends upon

the factors like births, deaths, migration and annexation. The future development of the
town mostly depends upon trade expansion, development industries, and surrounding
country, discoveries of mines, construction of railway stations etc may produce sharp
rises, slow growth, stationary conditions or even decrease the population. For the
prediction of population, it is better to study the development of other similar towns,
which have developed under the same circumstances, because the development of the
predicted town will be more or less on the same lines.

The following are the standard methods by which the forecasting population is
done.
• Arithmetical increase method
• Geometrical increase method
• Incremental increase method
• Simple graph method

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• Arithmetical increase method

This method is based on the assumption that the population is increasing at a

constant rate. The rate of change of population with time is constant. The population
after ‘n’ decades can be determined by the formula.
Pn = P + n.c

where
P → population at present
n → No. of decades
c → Constant determined by the average
of increase of ‘n’ decades

• Geometrical increase method

This method is based on the assumption that the percentage increase in population from
decade to decade remains constant. In this method the average percentage of growth of
last few decades is determined, the population forecasting is done on the basis that
percentage increase per decade will be the same.

The population at the end of ‘n’ decades is calculated by

• Incremental increase method

This method is modification of arithmetical increase method and it is suitable for

an average size town under normal condition where the growth rate is found to

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be in increasing order. While adopting this method the increase in increment is

considered for calculating future population. The incremental increase is
determined for each decade from the past population and the average value is
added to the present population along with the average rate of increase. Hence,
population after nth decade is

Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y

Where,

Pn = Population after nth decade

X = Average increase
Y = Incremental increase
• Simple graph method

In this method, the populations of last few decades are correctly plotted to a
suitable scale on graph. The population curve is smoothly extended for getting
future population. This extension should be done carefully and it requires proper
experience and judgment. The best way of applying this method is to extend the
curve by comparing with population curve of some other similar cities having the
similar growth condition.

Download:
Water Demand
https://gradeup-question-
images.grdp.co/liveData/f/2017/5/Environmental%20Notes.pdf-10.pdf

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5.3 Video Lessons

Click and watch the following videos:

Exercise 01: Population, WUPC and Future Water Demand
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjqyOJ15DoU

Water Demand
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7MwHJvSHWA

How to calculate water demand for Fire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tbocc8w3RQU

Various Types Of Water Demand -Environmental Engineering

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhF9Cn4LKpU

Emerging Tools to Forecast Water Supply and Crop Water Demand

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gcr03TrZG_E

Water Demand And Population Forecasting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqEFu6dttIs

Water consumption forecast

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndiy0AYj7GI

Population Forecasting Methods

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSEiRtqBu6g

Variations in Water Demand and Design Period

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKMrqZ_i5Ks

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Student’s Task 05

Please answer the following:

1. How would you estimate the water demand of a small city? Explain
2. Give 5 factors that affect water consumption.
3. What is fire water demand? Explain

Write your answers in a bond paper and submit. If you have internet, submit a soft
copy online.

5.4 References

Estimation of water demand. 2020/8/06. Retrieved from

http://www.brainkart.com/article/Estimation-of-water-demand_3298/
Water Demand in Water Supply System. 2020/8/06. Retrieved from
https://theconstructor.org/environmental-engg/water-demand-water-supply-
system/34760/
WATER RATES: WATER DEMAND FORECASTING 2020/8/06. Retrieved from
https://pacinst.org/wp-
content/uploads/2013/01/water_rates_water_demand_forecasting.pdf
Mohsin Siddique. Design of Water Supply Pipe Network. 2020/8/06. Retrieved from
https://www.slideshare.net/yourmohsin/water-demand-forecasting
Bibhabasu Mohanty. Water requirements. 2020/8/06. Retrieved from
https://www.slideshare.net/bibhabasumohanty/water-requirements
Water DemandAnalysis. 2020/8/06. Retrieved from
https://www.newportoregon.gov/dept/pwk/documents/Section06.pdf
Water Supply and Sewerage, 5th edition. Steel, E.W., and Terence J. McGhee. 1979.
McGraw-Hill

5.5 Acknowledgment

The images, tables, figures and information contained in this module were
taken from the references cited above.

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