FYE SEP 9/29/2020 0:31

ADT 31.21
Sales 3,309
EPS P/E
Shares Out 183 FY0 $ 1.84 17.0
FY1 $ 1.87 16.7
Market Cap. 5,721 FY2 $ 2.04 15.3

P/E Cal. 17.1 EBIT

Tax @ 34 %
EPS Cal. $ 1.83 Depr
Maintenance Capex
Gross Margins 87% Adjusted Earnings
436

Operating Margins 23%

EBITDA/Share $ 9.27

FCF/Share $ 6.34
FV/EBITDA 5.9

BV/Share $ 20.68

ROA 3.7%

ROC 4.5%

Rev Growth Rate - 5 YR #NAME?

Rev Growth Rate - 3 YR #NAME?

Rev Growth Rate- TTMs 3%

Forecast Rev. Growth 14%

Net Debt 4,380

Debt/Share $ 23.89

Debt/Capital 60.0%

Earnings Predictability 80%

 725 wacc 9%
(290) growth 0.0%
245 Earnings Power 7,556
- Debt 4,380
680 Equity Value 3,176

V/Sh 17.3
 Historical Information

ADT 31.21
5 Year Range

S&P Forward Year P/E SPX 16

Avg. Rel. P/E variation Rel-High Rel- Average Rel- Low
2002 NM #VALUE! NM
2001 NM #VALUE! NM
2000 NM #VALUE! NM
1999 NM #VALUE! NM
1998 NM #VALUE! NM

Avg. P/E variation Abs-High Abs- Average Abs- Low

2002 NM #VALUE! NM
2001 NM #VALUE! NM
2000 NM #VALUE! NM
1999 NM #VALUE! NM
1998 NM #VALUE! NM
ADT FYE: SEP
4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q 4Q
year Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16
Subscribers bfwd 6.29 6.302 6.318 6.335 6.35 6.39 6.43 6.45 6.42 6.40 6.47 6.45 6.52 6.45
Gross Adds (Units) 0.272 0.272 0.272 0.272 0.295 0.291 0.291 0.284 0.255 0.303 0.278 0.271 0.231 0.232
Attrition (Units) (0.256) (0.256) (0.256) (0.256) (0.252) (0.253) (0.276) (0.309) (0.273) (0.236) (0.297) (0.202) (0.304) (0.264)
Subscribers end of period ('m) 6.302 6.318 6.335 6.351 6.39 6.43 6.45 6.42 6.404 6.471 6.452 6.521 6.448 6.416
Y/Y 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.7% -0.8%
Attrition (%) 13.00% 13.00% 13.00% 13.00% 13.00% 13.20% 13.20% 13.50% 13.40% 13.90% 13.80% 13.90% 14.20% 14.20%
ADT Dealer Additions 0.136 0.131 0.135 0.124 0.100 0.142 0.113 0.098 0.084 0.086
ADT Direct Additions 0.159 0.160 0.156 0.160 0.155 0.161 0.163 0.173 0.147 0.144
Gross Additions 0.295 0.291 0.291 0.284 0.255 0.303 0.276 0.271 0.231 0.230
Y/Y -14% 4% -5% -5% -9% -24%
Pulse - Take Rates (%) 3% 3% 4% 5% 7% 10% 10% 13% 19% 23% 28% 32% 36.5% 43.5%
Pulse - Subscribers cfwd (%) 0.008 0.017 0.028 0.042 0.064 0.092 0.122 0.158 0.206 0.275 0.352 0.440 0.524 0.625
Pulse % of Total 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% 3.2% 4.3% 5.5% 6.7% 8.1% 9.7%
Price Escalations 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2%
ARPU 37.51 37.98 38.36 38.87 39.42 39.66 40.08 40.31 40.63 41.05
Y/Y 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4%
ADT Dealer Additions (% of total) 46% 45% 46% 44% 39% 47% 41% 36% 36% 37%
ADT Direct Additions (% of total) 54% 55% 54% 56% 61% 53% 59% 64% 64% 63%

Sales OPTIMISTIC 765 768 783 794 795 807 814 812 809 821 833 846 839 837 841 863 873 879 892 897 907 914 927 933
Sales Growth 4% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 2% 1.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
EBITDA Margin 52.0% 53.9% 53.4% 52.3% 36.2% 53.7% 54.2% 55.5% 51.8% 50.1% 52.1% 51.5% 49.9% 55.1% 50.6% 50.5% 50.4% 55.6% 51.6% 51.5% 50.4% 55.6% 51.6% 51.5%
Margin Change -15.8% -0.3% 0.8% 3.3% 15.6% -3.6% -2.1% -4.0% -1.9% 5.0% -1.5% -1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
OM 22.1% 23.7% 23.6% 22.9% 23.0% 23.5% 24.0% 21.4% 23.7% 21.8% 23.8% 22.3% 20.3% 24.0% 21.4% 20.8% 20.9% 24.9% 22.9% 21.8% 20.8% 24.8% 22.7% 21.6%
EBIT 169 182 185 182 183 190 195 174 192 179 198 189 170 201 180 180 183 219 204 195 189 226 210 201
Int. Ex. (Inc.) 22 24 22 22 22 22 23 23 24 30 32 32 47 46 44.9 45.6 47.6 50.2 51.7 53.5 55.6 58.3 59.9 61.7
pre tax 138 152 157 157 154 164 170 145 168 160 162 152 120 155 135 134 135 169 152 142 133 168 150 140
taxes 52 58 54 64 61 59 66 51 63 53 49 56 43 66 49 48 49 61 55 51 48 60 54 50
Tax Rate 38% 38% 34% 41% 40% 36% 39% 35% 38% 33% 30% 37% 36% 43% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36%
Net Inc. 92 98 107 95 97 108 105 98 105 100 116 99 79 89 86 86 86 108 98 91 85 108 96 89
Shares 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 236.0 229.0 219.0 213.0 198.0 183.0 180 178 175 173 171 170 168 167 166 164
Share Growth Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% -0.4% -4.7% -7.3% -16.1% -20.1% -17.6% -16.5% -11.4% -5.3% -5.0% -4.6% -4.1% -3.6% -3.3% -3.2%
EPS $ 0.40 $ 0.43 $ 0.47 $ 0.41 $ 0.42 $ 0.47 $ 0.46 $ 0.43 $ 0.44 $ 0.44 $ 0.53 $ 0.47 $ 0.40 $ 0.49 $ 0.48 $ 0.48 $ 0.49 $ 0.62 $ 0.57 $ 0.54 $ 0.51 $ 0.64 $ 0.58 $ 0.54
EPS Change 6.1% 10.1% -1.6% 3.3% 5.2% -7.0% 15.5% 9.3% -10.4% 11.8% -10% 4% 24% 28% 19% 11% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Dividend - - - - - - - - 29.00 29.00 28.00 26.00 25.00 37.00 36 36 35 35 35 34 34 34 33 33
Div/Share - - - - - - - - 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20
Depreciation 101.0 231.0 231.0 234.0 105.0 243.0 246.0 277.0 227.0 232.0 236.0 247.0 249.0 260.0 246 256 258 270 256 267 269 282 268 280
Amoritization 128.0 1.0 2.0 (1.0) - - - - - - - - - -
Cap. Ex. 69.0 79.0 83.0 90.0 250.0 257.0 299.0 281.0 260.0 322.0 308.0 316.0 279.0 304.0 305 307 311 322 330 330 336 343 348 353
Acquisition - - - - - - - - 146.0 16.0 -
WC/Sales -3% -1% -2% -5% -3% -2% -4% -6% -6% 1% -2% -6% -6% 1% -2% -6% -6% 1% -2% -6% -6%
AR 94 97 85 80 78 81 73 75 86 93 82
INV 33 45 49 57 42 44 46 53 66 73 73
Payables 153 151 151 177 144 143 154 181 203 158 174
WC (26) (9) (17) (40) (24) (18) (35) (53) (51) 8 (19) (54) (52) 8 (20) (57) (54) 9 (21) (59) (56)
Change in WC (35) 2 60 (28) (37) 3 63 (29) (38) 3
EBITDA 398 414 418 415 288 433 441 451 419 411 434 436 419 461 426 436 440 488 460 463 458 508 479 481
CFFO 308.0 359.0 376.0 396.0 337.0 372.0 427.0 357.0 409.0 403.0 461.0 393.0 335.0 422.0 367 341 284 406 390 355 291 419 403 366
TTM CFFO 667 1,043 1,439 1,468 1,481 1,532 1,493 1,565 1,596 1,630 1,666 1,592 1,611 1,517 1,465 1,413 1,397 1,421 1,435 1,443 1,456 1,468 1,479
CFFo Growth 122% 47% 4% 7% 8% 6% 12% 2% 1% -7% -12% -11% -13% -6% -2% 2% 4% 3% 3%
CFFO - Net Income 216 261 269 301 240 264 322 259 304 303 345 294 256 333
EBIT Interest Coverage 7.7 7.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.6 8.5 7.6 8.0 6.0 6.2 5.9 3.6 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.4 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.9 3.5 3.3
Investments or Acq. - - - - - - - - - -
FCF 239 280 293 306 87 115 128 76 149 81 153 (69) 40 118 62 34 (27) 84 61 25 (45) 76 55 14
Cash - - - 65 61 92 3 234 382 419 272 138 80 332
Short Term Debt 0 0 0 1 14 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
Long Term Debt 1,317 1,535 1,556 1,506 1,510 1,501 1,537 2,525 2,525 3,224 3,224 3,373 4,434 4,712
Net Debt 1,442 1,463 1,410 1,535 2,293 2,145 2,808 2,955 3,238 4,357 4,383 4,557 4,760 5,022 5,173 5,347 5,556 5,835 5,993 6,171 6,391
Interest Rate 25.0% 12.4% 8.2% 6.1% 5.4% 5.0% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.4x 1.2x 1.6x 1.7x 1.9x 2.6x 2.5x 2.6x 2.7x 2.8x 2.9x 2.9x 3.0x 3.1x 3.2x 3.2x 3.3x
Average Stock Price #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 46 47 42 41 46 30 32 33 33 35 37 39 42 42 43 43
LTM EPS $ 1.29 $ 1.70 $ 1.73 $ 1.77 $ 1.76 $ 1.77 $ 1.80 $ 1.76 $ 1.83 $ 1.87 $ 1.83 $ 1.88 $ 1.83 $ 1.85 $ 1.94 $ 2.08 $ 2.17 $ 2.22 $ 2.23 $ 2.26 $ 2.27
TTM PE #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 26x 26x 24x 22x 25x 16x 17x 18x 18x 18x 18x 18x 19x 19x 19x 19x
$ spent on share buyback 26 800 296 206 1,200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Appx shares bought 1 17 7 5 26 7 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6
Share decrease - - - - - - - (6.1) 7.0 10.0 6.0 15.0 15.0 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3
PPE net 1,825 4,822 4,852 4,939 4,992 5,159 5,162 5,194 5,253 5,303 5,356 5,409 5,482 5,545 5,612 5,673 5,753 5,826
TTMOS DEP/TTM PPE 44% 18% 20% 20% 19% 18% 19% 19%
Avg Years Depreciation 2.3 5.5 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.2
ADT
year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sales 3,110 3,228 3,309 3,380 3,541 3,682
Sales Growth 3.8% 2.5% 2.2% 4.7% 4.0%
EBITDA Margin 52.9% 50.0% 51.4% 51.5% 52.3% 52.3%
Margin Change #REF! -2.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0%
OM 23.1% 23.0% 22.9% 21.6% 22.6% 22.5%
EBIT 718 742 758 730 801 827
Int. Ex. (Inc.) 90 90 118 184 203 236
Tax Rate 38% 37% 34% 38% 36% 36%
Net Inc. 391 408 420 341 383 378
Shares 230 230 224 185 172 166
Share Growth Rate #REF! 0% -2% -18% -7% -4%
EPS $ 1.70 $ 1.78 $ 1.87 $ 1.85 $ 2.22 $ 2.27
EPS Change #REF! 4% 5% -1% 20% 3%
Div/Share $ - $ - $ 0.50 $ 0.73 $ 0.81 $ 0.81
D&A 927 871 942 1,011 1,050 1,099
Cap. Ex. 321 1,087 1,206 1,195 1,292 1,379
EBIT Interest Coverage 8.0 8.2 6.4 4.0 3.9 3.5
FCF 1,118 406 314 254 143 100
Net Debt 1,442 2,293 3,238 4,760 5,556 6,391
ADT FYE: SEP
0 0 0 4Q 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -3 4Q 4Q 4Q
year Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16
Subscribers bfwd 6.29 6.302 6.318 6.335 6.35 6.39 6.43 6.45 6.42 6.40 6.47 6.45 6.52 6.45
Gross Adds (Units) 0.272 0.272 0.272 0.272 0.295 0.291 0.291 0.284 0.255 0.303 0.278 0.271 0.231 0.232
Attrition (Units) (0.256) (0.256) (0.256) (0.256) (0.252) (0.253) (0.276) (0.309) (0.273) (0.236) (0.297) (0.202) (0.304) (0.264)
Subscribers end of period ('m) 6.302 6.318 6.335 6.351 6.39 6.43 6.45 6.42 6.404 6.471 6.452 6.521 6.448 6.416
Y/Y 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.7% -0.8%
Attrition (%) 13.00% 13.00% 13.00% 13.00% 13.00% 13.20% 13.20% 13.50% 13.40% 13.90% 13.80% 13.90% 14.20% 14.20%
ADT Dealer Additions - - - - 0.136 0.131 0.135 0.124 0.100 0.142 0.113 0.098 0.084 0.086
ADT Direct Additions - - - - 0.159 0.160 0.156 0.160 0.155 0.161 0.163 0.173 0.147 0.144
Gross Additions - - - - 0.295 0.291 0.291 0.284 0.255 0.303 0.276 0.271 0.231 0.230
Y/Y 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -14% 4% -5% -5% -9% -24%
Pulse - Take Rates (%) 3% 3% 4% 5% 7% 10% 10% 13% 19% 23% 28% 32% 36.5% 43.5%
Pulse - Subscribers cfwd (%) 0.008 0.017 0.028 0.042 0.064 0.092 0.122 0.158 0.206 0.275 0.352 0.440 0.524 0.625
Pulse % of Total 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% 3.2% 4.3% 5.5% 6.7% 8.1% 9.7%
Price Escalations 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 0%
ARPU - - - - 37.51 37.98 38.36 38.87 39.42 39.66 40.08 40.31 40.63 41.05
Y/Y - - - - - - - - 5% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4%
ADT Dealer Additions (% of total) 0% 0% 0% 0% 46% 45% 46% 44% 39% 47% 41% 36% 36% 37%
ADT Direct Additions (% of total) 0% 0% 0% 0% 54% 55% 54% 56% 61% 53% 59% 64% 64% 63%
S&M - - - - - - - - 84 86 83 84 83 -
Commissions - - - - - - - - 47 47 50 52 46 -
Installation Cost - - - - - - - - 135 158 164 181 176 -
Installation Revenue - - - - - - - - 68 72 73 81 70 -
Net Direct SAC - - - - - - - - 198 219 224 236 235 -
ADT Direct SAC Per Sub ($) - - - - - - - - 1,277 1,360 1,374 1,364 1,599 -
Y/Y 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 25% 0%
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Sales PESSIMISTIC 765 768 783 794 795 807 814 812 809 821 833 846 839 837 825 846 856 862 858 871 881 888 883 898
Sales Growth 0 0% 0% 0% 4% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 2% -1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
EBITDA Margin 52.0% 53.9% 53.4% 52.3% 36.2% 53.7% 54.2% 55.5% 51.8% 50.1% 52.1% 51.5% 49.9% 55.1% 50.1% 50.0% 50.2% 55.3% 50.4% 50.3% 50.4% 55.6% 50.6% 50.5%
Margin Change 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -15.8% -0.3% 0.8% 3.3% 15.6% -3.6% -2.1% -4.0% -1.9% 5.0% -2.0% -1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
OM 22.1% 23.7% 23.6% 22.9% 23.0% 23.5% 24.0% 21.4% 23.7% 21.8% 23.8% 22.3% 20.3% 24.0% 20.3% 19.8% 20.2% 24.2% 20.7% 19.9% 20.3% 24.3% 20.7% 19.9%
EBIT 169 182 185 182 183 190 195 174 192 179 198 189 170 201 167 167 173 208 177 173 179 215 183 179
Int. Ex. (Inc.) 22 24 22 22 22 22 23 23 24 30 32 32 47 46 44.9 45.6 47.6 50.2 51.7 53.5 55.6 58.3 59.8 61.6
pre tax 138 152 157 157 154 164 170 145 168 160 162 152 120 155 122 122 125 158 126 120 123 157 123 117
taxes 52 58 54 64 61 59 66 51 63 53 49 56 43 66 44 44 45 57 45 43 44 57 44 42
Tax Rate 38% 38% 34% 41% 40% 36% 39% 35% 38% 33% 30% 37% 36% 43% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 36%
Net Inc. 92 98 107 95 97 108 105 98 105 100 116 99 79 89 78 78 80 101 80 77 79 101 79 75
Shares 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 229.9 236.0 229.0 219.0 213.0 198.0 183.0 180 178 175 172 170 168 166 164 162 160
Share Growth Rate 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% -0.4% -4.7% -7.3% -16.1% -20.1% -17.6% -16.5% -11.6% -5.8% -5.7% -5.6% -5.3% -5.0% -4.8% -4.7%
EPS $ 0.40 $ 0.43 $ 0.47 $ 0.41 $ 0.42 $ 0.47 $ 0.46 $ 0.43 $ 0.44 $ 0.44 $ 0.53 $ 0.47 $ 0.40 $ 0.49 $ 0.43 $ 0.44 $ 0.46 $ 0.59 $ 0.47 $ 0.46 $ 0.47 $ 0.61 $ 0.49 $ 0.47
EPS Change $ - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 10.1% -1.6% 3.3% 5.2% -7.0% 15.5% 9.3% -10.4% 11.8% -18% -6% 15% 21% 9% 4% 4% 5% 3% 3%
Dividend - - - - - - - - 29.00 29.00 28.00 26.00 25.00 37.00 36 36 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 32
Div/Share - - - - - - - - 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.13 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20 $ 0.20
Depreciation 101.0 231.0 231.0 234.0 105.0 243.0 246.0 277.0 227.0 232.0 236.0 247.0 249.0 260.0 246 256 257 269 255 265 266 278 264 275
Amoritization 128.0 1.0 2.0 (1.0) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Cap. Ex. 69.0 79.0 83.0 90.0 250.0 257.0 299.0 281.0 260.0 322.0 308.0 316.0 279.0 304.0 299 299 301 310 314 315 320 324 328 331
Acquisition - - - - - - - - - - - 146.0 16.0 -
WC/Sales 0% 0% 0% -3% -1% -2% -5% -3% -2% -4% -6% -6% 1% -2% -6% -6% 1% -2% -6% -6% 1% -2% -6% -6%
AR 0 0 0 94 97 85 80 78 81 73 75 86 93 82
INV 0 0 0 33 45 49 57 42 44 46 53 66 73 73
Payables 0 0 0 153 151 151 177 144 143 154 181 203 158 174
WC - - - (26) (9) (17) (40) (24) (18) (35) (53) (51) 8 (19) (52) (51) 8 (20) (55) (53) 8 (20) (56) (54)
Change in WC 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (33) 1 59 (28) (35) 2 61 (29) (36) 2
EBITDA 398 414 418 415 288 433 441 451 419 411 434 436 419 461 413 423 430 477 432 438 445 494 447 454
CFFO 308.0 359.0 376.0 396.0 337.0 372.0 427.0 357.0 409.0 403.0 461.0 393.0 335.0 422.0 358 332 278 398 370 340 284 407 379 348
TTM CFFO 0 667 1043 1439 1,468 1,481 1,532 1,493 1,565 1,596 1,630 1,666 1,592 1,611 1,508 1,447 1,390 1,365 1,378 1,385 1,391 1,401 1,410 1,418
CFFo Growth 0 0% 0% 0% 0% 122% 47% 4% 7% 8% 6% 12% 2% 1% -8% -13% -13% -15% -9% -4% 0% 3% 2% 2%
CFFO - Net Income 216 261 269 301 240 264 322 259 304 303 345 294 256 333
EBIT Interest Coverage 7.7 7.6 8.4 8.3 8.3 8.6 8.5 7.6 8.0 6.0 6.2 5.9 3.6 4.4 3.7 3.7 3.6 4.1 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.7 3.1 2.9
Investments or Acq. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - - - - - - - - - -
FCF 239 280 293 306 87 115 128 76 149 81 153 (69) 40 118 59 33 (23) 88 56 24 (36) 83 51 16
Cash - - - 65 61 92 3 234 382 419 272 138 80 332
Short Term Debt 0 0 0 1 14 1 1 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
Long Term Debt 1,317 1,535 1,556 1,506 1,510 1,501 1,537 2,525 2,525 3,224 3,224 3,373 4,434 4,712
Net Debt - - - 1,442 1,463 1,410 1,535 2,293 2,145 2,808 2,955 3,238 4,357 4,383 4,560 4,763 5,022 5,169 5,348 5,558 5,827 5,977 6,159 6,375
Interest Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 12.4% 8.2% 6.1% 5.4% 5.0% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Net Debt/EBITDA 1.4x 1.2x 1.6x 1.7x 1.9x 2.6x 2.5x 2.6x 2.8x 2.9x 3.0x 3.0x 3.1x 3.3x 3.3x 3.4x 3.5x
Average Stock Price #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 46 47 42 41 46 30 32 32 32 33 34 35 38 38 38 39
LTM EPS $ - $ - $ - $ 1.29 $ 1.70 $ 1.73 $ 1.77 $ 1.76 $ 1.77 $ 1.80 $ 1.76 $ 1.83 $ 1.87 $ 1.83 $ 1.88 $ 1.78 $ 1.76 $ 1.81 $ 1.92 $ 1.95 $ 1.97 $ 1.99 $ 2.02 $ 2.03
TTM PE 0x 0x 0x #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 26x 26x 24x 22x 25x 16x 17x 18x 18x 18x 18x 18x 19x 19x 19x 19x
$ spent on share buyback - - - - - - - - 26 800 296 206 1,200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200 200
Appx shares bought - - - - - - - - 1 17 7 5 26 7 6.3 6.2 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
Share decrease - - - - - - - - (6.1) 7.0 10.0 6.0 15.0 15.0 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9
PPE net 0 0 0 1,825 0 0 0 4,822 4,852 4,939 4,992 5,159 5,162 5,194 5,247 5,290 5,334 5,376 5,435 5,486 5,539 5,585 5,649 5,706
TTMOS DEP/TTM PPE 0% 0% 0% 44% 0% 0% 0% 18% 20% 20% 19% 18% 19% 19%
Avg Years Depreciation - - - 2.3 - - - 5.5 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.2
ADT
year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sales 3,110 3,228 3,309 3,347 3,447 3,550
Sales Growth 0.0% 3.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3.0% 3.0%
EBITDA Margin 52.9% 50.0% 51.4% 51.3% 51.5% 51.8%
Margin Change #REF! -2.9% 1.4% -0.1% 0.3% 0.2%
OM 23.1% 23.0% 22.9% 21.1% 21.2% 21.3%
EBIT 718 742 758 705 732 755
Int. Ex. (Inc.) 90 90 118 184 203 235
Tax Rate 38% 37% 34% 38% 36% 36%
Net Inc. 391 408 420 326 338 333
Shares 230 230 224 185 171 163
Share Growth Rate #REF! 0% -2% -18% -7% -5%
EPS $ 1.70 $ 1.78 $ 1.87 $ 1.76 $ 1.97 $ 2.04
EPS Change #REF! 4% 5% -6% 12% 4%
Div/Share $ - $ - $ 0.50 $ 0.73 $ 0.81 $ 0.81
D&A 927 871 942 1,011 1,045 1,083
Cap. Ex. 321 1,087 1,206 1,181 1,241 1,303
EBIT Interest Coverage 8.0 8.2 6.4 3.8 3.6 3.2
FCF 1,118 406 314 250 144 115
Net Debt 1,442 2,293 3,238 4,763 5,558 6,375
ADT High Low
Annual Simp Mod TTM End TTM End
year 2012 2013 Sep-16 Sep-16
Sales 3,228 3,309 3,682 3,550
Sales Growth 4% 3% 4% 2%
EBITDA Margin 50.0% 51.4% 52.3% 51.8%
Margin Change -2.9% 1.4% 0.9% 0.4%
OM 23.0% 22.9% 22.5% 21.3%
EBIT 742 758 827 755
Int. Ex. (Inc.) 90 118 236 235
Tax Rate 37% 34% 36% 36%
Net Inc. 408 420 378 333
Shares 230 224 166 163
Share Growth Rate 0% -2% -9% -10%
EPS $ 1.78 $ 1.87 $ 2.27 $ 2.04
EPS Change 4% 5% 7% 3%
Div/Share $ - $ 0.50 $ 0.81 $ 0.81
D&A 871 942 1,099 1,083
Cap. Ex. 1,087 1,206 1,379 1,303
Free Cash Flow 406 314 100 115
P/E 18 17 20 14
Share Price $ 31.21 $ 45 $ 29
PV @ 12% $ 77 $ 47
10 % discount $ 56
midpoint $ 62
D&A/Sales 27.0% 28.5% 29.8% 30.5%
EBITDA 1,613 1,700 1,925 1,839
EBITDA Growth 3% 2%
Debt 2,293 3,238 6,391 6,375
FV/EBITDA 6.3 6.0 7.2 6.0
TODAY 9/29/2020 Begin Date EOP DATE EOP DATE
TARGET DATE 9/30/2015 9/30/2013 9/29/2016 9/29/2016
(5.0) years 3.00 3.00 years
FCF/EV 4.3% 3.1% 0.7% 1.0%
ADT

year Oct-03
Sales PESSIMISTIC 253
Sales Growth 10.0%
EBITDA Margin 15.3%
Margin Change 2.5%
OM 11.0%
EBIT 28
Int. Ex. (Inc.) (2)
pre tax
taxes
Tax Rate 35%
Net Inc. 19
Shares 49
Share Growth Rate 0.7%
EPS $ 0.39
EPS Change 57%
Div/Share $ 0.12
Depreciation 11
Amoritization -
Cap. Ex. 16
WC/Sales -
AR 22%
INV
Payables
WC
Change in WC 57
EBITDA 11
CFFO 39
TTM CFFO 19
CFFo Growth 171
EBIT Interest Cover 44%
Investments or Acq. (17.8)
FCF -
Err:509 3
Cash 6
Short Term Debt
Long Term Debt
Net Debt
Interest Rate (102)
PPE net 6.0%
TTMOS DEP/TTM PP 182
Search K's/Q's for
1.) Change in accounting estimate or principle
2.) Unbilled receivables
3.) Insider stock sales
4.) Decline in backlog
5.) Layaway sales