FCFE Discount Model: Assumptions
FCFE Discount Model: Assumptions
FCFE Discount Model: Assumptions
Assumptions 1. The firm is expected to grow at a higher growth rate in the first period.
2. The growth rate will drop at the end of the first period to the stable growth rate.
3. The dividend payout ratio is consistent with the expected growth rate.
Inputs needed 1. Length of high growth period
2. Expected growth rate in earnings during the high growth period.
3. Dividend payout ratio during the high growth period.
4. Expected growth rate in earnings during the stable growth period.
5. Expected payout ratio during the stable growth period.
6. Current Earnings per share
7. Inputs for the Cost of Equity
How the model wo The expected dividends are estimated for the high growth period, using the payout
ratio for the high growth period and the expected growth rate in earnings per share.
The expected growth rate is estimated either using fundamentals:
Expected growth = Retention Ratio * Return on Equity
Alternatively, you can input the expected growth rate.
At the end of the high growth phase, the expected terminal price is estimated using
dividends per share one year after the high growth period, using the growth rate
in stable growth, the payout ratio in stable growth and the cost of equity in stable
growth.
The dividends per share and the terminal price are discounted back to the present at
the cost of equity changes.
If your cost of equity in stable growth is different from your cost of equity in high
growth, the cost of equity in the second half of the stable growth period will be
adjusted gradually from the high growth cost of equity to a stable growth cost of
equity.
Options Available You can make this model into a three stage model by answering yes to the question
of whether you want me to adjust the inputs in the second half of the high growth
period. If you do, I will adjust the growth rate, the payout ratio and the cost of
equity from high-growth levels to stable growth levels gradually.
You can also make this a stable growth model by setting the high
growth period to zero.
Inputs from current financials
Net Income = $4,096.00 (in currency)
Interest income from cash and marketable securities (af $132.00 Last year
Do you want to capitalize R&D expenses? Yes
Book Value of Equity = $12,072.00 $10,237.00 (in currency)
Cash and Marketable Securities $2,475.00 $1,918.00
Market Value of Equity = ###
Number of shares outstanding = 62224.00
Current Capital Expenditures = $11,986.00
Current Depreciation = $9,767.00
Change in non-cash Working capital in most recent ye $214.00
Net Debt Issued (Paid) during the year = ($1,951.00)
Do you want to normalize the net income/earnings per No
Do you want to normalize your reinvestment needs? No
If yes, these will be your normalized values
Normalized Net Income = $2,655.84
Normalized Net Capital Expenditures = $4,242.61
Normalized Working Capital Change = $336.31
Normalized Net Debt issued = $1,864.62
Do you want to calculate the growth rate from fundam Yes (Yes or No)
If no, enter the expected growth rate in earnings in high growth period=
If yes, the following will be the inputs to the fundamental growth formulation:
Adjusted Net Income = $4,325.80
Non-cash ROE = 52.00% (in percent)
Equity Reinvestment Rate = 110.60% (in percent)
Do you want to change any of these inputs for the hig No
If yes, specify the values for these inputs (Please enter all variables)
Non-cash ROE = 15.00% (in percent)
Equity Reinvestment Rate = 110.60% (in percent)
Do you want to change any of these inputs for the stab Yes
If yes, specify the values for these inputs
ROE = 15.00% (in percent)
Will the beta to change in the stable period? Yes (Yes or No)
If yes, enter the beta for stable period = 0.80
Normalized Earnings Calculation
Choose the approach to normalized earning 2
Approach 1: Average Net Income over last 5 years
-5 -4 -3 -2 Current
Net Income $15,320.00 $11,460.00 $21,510.00 $25,330.00
Average
$18,405.00
Normalizing Net Cap Ex
Choose the approach to normali 1
Approach 1: Average Net Cap Ex over last 5 years
-5 -4 -3 -2 Current Average
Net Cap Ex $2,141.00 $3,127.00 $3,812.00 $2,219.00 $2,824.75
EBIT $21,510.00 $14,970.00 $23,183.00 $35,872.00 $23,883.75
11.83%
Approach 2: Industry average
Industry average net cap ex/ EB 22%
Inputs
Over how many years do you want to amortize R&D expenses 5 ! If in doubt, use the lookup table below
Enter the current year's R&D expense = $1,771.00 The maximum allowed is ten years
Enter R& D expenses for past years: the number of years that you will need to enter will be determined by the amortization period
Do not input numbers in the first column (Year). It will get automatically updated based on the input above.
Year R& D Expenses
-1 1678.00 ! Year -1 is the year prior to the current year
-2 1529.00 ! Year -2 is the two years prior to the current year
-3 1367.00
-4 1267.00
-5 1205.00
0
0
0
0
0
Output
Year R&D Expense Unamortized portion Amortization this year
Current 1771.00 1.00 1771.00
-1 1678.00 0.80 1342.40 $335.60
-2 1529.00 0.60 917.40 $305.80
-3 1367.00 0.40 546.80 $273.40
-4 1267.00 0.20 253.40 $253.40
-5 1205.00 0.00 0.00 $241.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
0 0.00 0.00 0.00 $0.00
Value of Research Asset = $4,831.00 $1,409.20
Adjustment to Operating Income = $361.80 ! A positive number indicates an increase in operating income (add to reported EBIT
Tax Effect of R&D Expensing $137
amortization period
The dividends for the high growth phase are shown below (upto 10 years)
1 2 3 4 5
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Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model
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Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model
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Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model
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If you are a multi-business company, you can input the following
Business Revenues EV/Sales Estimated Va Unlevered Beta
Healthcare Products $11,254.41 5.9423 $66,877.48 0.9818
Electronics $ 3,791.59 2.5605 $ 9,708.32 1.3071
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
0.0000 $ - 0.0000
Company $ 15,046.00 $76,585.80 1.0231
If you are a multinational company and have a breakdown by country, you can use this table (for up to 10 countr
Country Revenues ERP Weight Weighted ERP
Albania 800 10.13% 80.00% 8.10%
Austria 200 6.08% 20.00% 1.22%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
The last two rows in each of coun
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% set aside for your input to provide
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% numbers directly. For instance, a
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% that breaks its revenues down into
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% rest into "Rest of the World". You
in one of these two rows and ente
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% rest of the world. The easiest w
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% country equity risk premium work
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% three countries that you have da
0.00% 0.00% global weighted average ERP for
regional worksheet, you can use t
0.00% 0.00% for an individual country (usually
Total 1000 100.00% 9.32% be broken out though the rest of t
If you are a multinational company and have a breakdown only by region, you can use region. You can look up the ER
ERP wo
Region Revenues ERP Weight Weighted ERP
Africa 0 10.38% 0.00% 0.0000%
Asia 0 6.70% 0.00% 0.0000%
Australia & New Zealand 5.69% 0.00% 0.0000%
Caribbean 10 11.11% 11.11% 1.2345%
Central and South America 8.97% 0.00% 0.0000%
Eastern Europe & Russia 7.83% 0.00% 0.0000%
Middle East 30 7.26% 33.33% 2.4217%
North America 35 5.69% 38.89% 2.2128%
Western Europe 15 6.50% 16.67% 1.0835%
0.00% 0.0000%
0.00% 0.0000%
Total 90 100.00% 6.9524%
his table (for up to 10 countries)