Dividend Discount Model: Assumptions
Dividend Discount Model: Assumptions
Dividend Discount Model: Assumptions
Assumptions
1. The firm is expected to grow at a higher growth rate in the first period.
2. The growth rate will drop at the end of the first period to the stable growth rate.
3. The dividend payout ratio is consistent with the expected growth rate.
Inputs needed
1. Length of high growth period
2. Expected growth rate in earnings during the high growth period.
3. Dividend payout ratio during the high growth period.
4. Expected growth rate in earnings during the stable growth period.
5. Expected payout ratio during the stable growth period.
6. Current Earnings per share
7. Inputs for the Cost of Equity
How the model worksThe expected dividends are estimated for the high growth period, using the payout
ratio for the high growth period and the expected growth rate in earnings per share.
The expected growth rate is estimated either using fundamentals:
Expected growth = Retention Ratio * Return on Equity
Alternatively, you can input the expected growth rate.
At the end of the high growth phase, the expected terminal price is estimated using
dividends per share one year after the high growth period, using the growth rate
in stable growth, the payout ratio in stable growth and the cost of equity in stable
growth.
The dividends per share and the terminal price are discounted back to the present at
the cost of equity changes.
If your cost of equity in stable growth is different from your cost of equity in high
growth, the cost of equity in the second half of the stable growth period will be
adjusted gradually from the high growth cost of equity to a stable growth cost of
equity.
Options Available You can make this model into a three stage model by answering yes to the question
of whether you want me to adjust the inputs in the second half of the high growth
period. If you do, I will adjust the growth rate, the payout ratio and the cost of
equity from high-growth levels to stable growth levels gradually.
You can also make this a stable growth model by setting the high
growth period to zero.
Model
0.8
4.50%
4.00%
(in percent)
(in percent)
3.86%
(in percent)
65.38%
No
(in percent)
(Yes or No)
(in percent)
Yes
0.80
4.00%
(Yes or No)
(in currency)
(in currency)
1
-5
$1,662.00
22%
-4
$2,533.00
-3
$1,876.00
-2
$1,933.00
ngs Calculation
Current
$2,122.00
Average
$2,025.20
7.70%
$11,794
$2.08
0.00%
65.38%
The dividends for the high growth phase are shown below (upto 10 years)
3.86%
Page 6
65.38%
7.70%
$36.82
$0.00
$36.82
$36.82
$17.66
$19.16
$0.00
$36.82
Page 7
Page 8
36.78375
Page 9
Page 10
Industry
Number of firmsLevered Beta Unlevered BetaMarket D/E
Advertising
34
1.19
1.06
25.35%
Aerospace/Defense
72
0.79
0.62
42.59%
Air Transport
43
1.32
1.05
50.37%
Apparel
59
0.88
0.84
14.85%
Auto & Truck
21
0.99
0.49
162.16%
Auto Parts
62
0.90
0.69
46.22%
Bank
504
0.62
0.47
69.15%
Bank (Canadian)
7
0.83
0.78
15.24%
Bank (Foreign)
4
1.18
0.72
128.95%
Bank (Midwest)
43
0.73
0.60
57.29%
Beverage (Alcoholic)
24
0.57
0.51
20.51%
Beverage (Soft Drink)
17
0.59
0.55
13.42%
Biotechnology
84
1.20
1.26
3.92%
Building Materials
48
0.80
0.71
43.53%
Cable TV
24
1.71
1.09
69.22%
Canadian Energy
10
0.66
0.56
28.39%
Cement & Aggregates
14
0.78
0.67
25.35%
Chemical (Basic)
16
0.88
0.74
30.97%
Chemical (Diversified)
33
0.83
0.73
23.19%
Chemical (Specialty)
95
0.80
0.65
34.57%
Coal
8
0.95
0.73
33.60%
Computer Software/Svcs
387
1.77
1.97
3.03%
Computers/Peripherals
148
1.83
1.88
9.46%
Diversified Co.
102
0.78
0.64
44.55%
Drug
276
1.15
1.17
6.69%
E-Commerce
41
2.89
3.77
6.07%
Educational Services
34
1.03
1.09
2.17%
Electric Util. (Central)
27
0.80
0.43
123.05%
Electric Utility (East)
29
0.73
0.44
94.48%
Electric Utility (West)
15
0.79
0.45
122.79%
Electrical Equipment
86
1.34
1.29
6.50%
Electronics
181
1.41
1.40
18.70%
Entertainment
84
1.18
1.05
23.99%
Entertainment Tech
32
1.82
1.96
8.60%
Environmental
77
0.75
0.52
59.91%
Financial Svcs. (Div.)
231
0.90
0.51
112.97%
Food Processing
104
0.64
0.53
33.29%
Food Wholesalers
22
0.67
0.59
25.09%
Foreign Electronics
13
1.16
1.18
33.24%
Foreign Telecom.
19
1.58
1.41
31.88%
Furn/Home Furnishings
36
0.76
0.72
15.14%
Grocery
25
0.72
0.48
82.02%
Healthcare Information
35
1.00
1.05
13.24%
Home Appliance
15
0.87
0.77
32.95%
Homebuilding
44
0.80
0.62
51.79%
Hotel/Gaming
80
0.84
0.56
65.99%
Household Products
32
0.76
0.72
13.16%
Human Resources
27
0.98
0.99
11.13%
Industrial Services
190
0.79
0.71
26.83%
Information Services
29
1.04
0.98
11.70%
Insurance (Life)
45
0.88
0.91
15.65%
Insurance (Prop/Cas.)
Internet
Investment Co.
Investment Co.(Foreign)
Machinery
Manuf. Housing/RV
Maritime
Medical Services
Medical Supplies
Metal Fabricating
Metals & Mining (Div.)
Natural Gas (Distrib.)
Natural Gas (Div.)
Newspaper
Office Equip/Supplies
Oilfield Svcs/Equip.
Packaging & Container
Paper/Forest Products
Petroleum (Integrated)
Petroleum (Producing)
Pharmacy Services
Power
Precious Metals
Precision Instrument
Publishing
R.E.I.T.
Railroad
Recreation
Restaurant
Retail (Special Lines)
Retail Building Supply
Retail Store
Securities Brokerage
Semiconductor
Semiconductor Equip
Shoe
Steel (General)
Steel (Integrated)
Telecom. Equipment
Telecom. Services
Textile
Thrift
Tire & Rubber
Tobacco
Toiletries/Cosmetics
Trucking
Utility (Foreign)
Water Utility
Wireless Networking
Market
69
289
22
17
138
18
23
197
236
37
54
31
39
20
31
88
34
40
34
128
15
19
48
102
40
144
16
73
85
196
8
43
27
113
15
24
27
14
124
137
18
242
12
11
21
39
6
16
63
6958
0.81
2.72
0.66
1.05
0.79
0.93
0.80
0.82
0.84
0.76
0.98
0.65
0.85
0.85
0.90
0.90
0.83
0.84
0.82
0.73
0.89
1.45
0.41
1.33
0.90
0.64
0.83
0.87
0.74
0.94
1.01
0.91
1.31
2.59
2.50
0.82
0.80
0.84
1.87
1.35
0.73
0.57
0.95
0.67
0.74
0.83
0.83
0.57
2.21
0.91
0.84
3.10
0.46
1.05
0.62
0.85
0.55
0.80
0.82
0.73
0.83
0.40
0.52
0.79
0.74
0.83
0.58
0.62
0.74
0.60
0.86
0.54
0.39
1.37
0.78
0.57
0.59
1.41
0.66
0.93
1.01
0.80
0.81
2.72
2.67
0.85
0.63
0.63
2.01
0.96
0.52
0.57
0.66
0.59
0.69
0.63
0.54
0.39
1.68
0.78
7.36%
4.15%
56.03%
3.18%
43.83%
21.81%
101.31%
22.33%
6.98%
15.35%
25.22%
88.04%
88.88%
17.24%
41.90%
16.35%
75.23%
71.86%
18.32%
29.03%
8.97%
207.95%
9.18%
10.10%
24.28%
17.51%
61.36%
21.13%
20.31%
14.46%
4.57%
23.84%
171.94%
6.08%
7.98%
6.68%
41.50%
62.24%
3.89%
55.11%
86.19%
23.85%
74.03%
24.34%
13.61%
53.18%
83.78%
66.22%
48.51%
37.51%
6.85%
3.99%
35.91%
3.08%
30.47%
17.90%
50.33%
18.26%
6.52%
13.30%
20.14%
46.82%
47.06%
14.70%
29.53%
14.05%
42.93%
41.81%
15.48%
22.50%
8.23%
67.53%
8.41%
9.18%
19.53%
14.90%
38.03%
17.45%
16.88%
12.63%
4.37%
19.25%
63.23%
5.73%
7.39%
6.26%
29.33%
38.36%
3.75%
35.53%
46.29%
19.25%
42.54%
19.58%
11.98%
34.72%
45.59%
39.84%
32.66%
27.28%
8.27%
-19.18%
7.74%
2.67%
7.59%
-3.20%
3.49%
12.26%
21.64%
8.55%
6.38%
12.10%
1.22%
10.24%
19.52%
11.02%
4.18%
4.86%
11.57%
12.63%
13.44%
5.98%
4.93%
1.07%
9.65%
10.22%
9.92%
12.72%
16.34%
12.23%
17.89%
16.02%
12.10%
2.89%
-2.77%
15.95%
11.43%
7.12%
-6.76%
10.70%
-1.59%
14.96%
8.14%
39.44%
50.07%
9.00%
14.44%
8.34%
-52.67%
10.12%
ROC
8.47%
11.78%
10.55%
14.32%
10.69%
27.55%
NA
NA
NA
NA
18.29%
19.33%
4.47%
4.88%
6.47%
15.55%
13.54%
14.26%
17.10%
13.40%
17.69%
16.39%
13.76%
11.09%
19.40%
-93.80%
16.23%
10.05%
10.39%
8.57%
17.11%
3.43%
7.30%
13.35%
11.90%
10.54%
14.72%
14.64%
6.36%
9.04%
14.56%
12.55%
8.79%
21.54%
10.73%
10.32%
23.97%
9.90%
13.51%
16.63%
NA
NA
0.21%
NA
NA
9.93%
3.62%
-1.48%
15.66%
19.84%
10.94%
10.44%
10.70%
10.32%
10.48%
13.55%
13.41%
12.54%
9.62%
13.71%
17.10%
14.99%
5.12%
11.94%
7.90%
18.67%
4.54%
9.84%
-0.65%
16.74%
14.49%
18.11%
13.29%
9.49%
10.98%
4.27%
17.54%
12.94%
12.12%
2.72%
17.85%
5.77%
NA
17.90%
30.00%
24.44%
15.90%
16.93%
12.03%
4.31%
10.24%
16.40%
3.58%
1.93%
2.53%
21.00%
18.21%
47.84%
20.10%
14.93%
46.94%
9.98%
27.73%
22.46%
29.49%
25.74%
20.61%
37.35%
47.14%
24.07%
18.00%
31.65%
12.40%
7.55%
14.29%
20.91%
1.73%
31.06%
262.39%
26.91%
25.77%
37.30%
28.78%
18.43%
19.32%
3.24%
27.03%
20.58%
27.09%
8.68%
12.04%
41.73%
30.01%
18.12%
30.88%
25.07%
27.30%
16.74%
30.97%
5.11%
32.51%
NA
3.15%
NA
NA
10.76%
2.62%
17.53%
11.89%
14.27%
12.22%
17.46%
20.59%
27.33%
22.47%
11.95%
18.67%
14.20%
12.85%
12.88%
49.23%
4.99%
16.22%
28.85%
9.18%
14.05%
43.72%
28.20%
18.62%
18.50%
9.13%
11.33%
7.70%
53.99%
21.09%
8.29%
11.27%
11.13%
13.67%
7.41%
36.55%
9.15%
NA
8.23%
22.31%
17.73%
13.02%
27.40%
42.99%
6.20%
22.09%
NA
0.24%
NA
NA
7.47%
1.02%
-2.40%
7.70%
10.01%
7.56%
11.88%
13.99%
21.06%
13.98%
7.79%
12.51%
9.86%
9.08%
7.46%
34.20%
3.31%
10.50%
25.50%
6.84%
9.56%
35.71%
18.39%
-0.72%
11.96%
5.74%
7.06%
4.94%
36.70%
14.70%
7.03%
7.43%
8.61%
8.96%
2.92%
24.82%
3.87%
NA
6.82%
14.64%
11.93%
8.81%
19.88%
32.18%
5.68%
11.96%
NA
-8.66%
NA
NA
2.00%
0.32%
3.46%
2.30%
6.61%
3.91%
1.81%
3.41%
4.80%
8.32%
3.84%
1.39%
0.57%
0.70%
3.88%
12.61%
1.93%
1.04%
2.01%
-0.49%
1.70%
80.03%
3.56%
5.09%
5.07%
2.14%
6.49%
1.03%
3.01%
3.59%
-4.74%
5.45%
0.36%
0.18%
1.07%
5.14%
-0.49%
NA
0.87%
7.69%
7.61%
1.33%
1.26%
7.54%
-11.38%
4.35%
61000.00%
44.87%
23.53%
131.25%
93.99%
88.96%
193.84%
123.41%
112.96%
89.65%
115.59%
186.38%
194.80%
65.69%
58.46%
122.64%
75.67%
73.38%
132.46%
181.75%
174.13%
368.42%
74.25%
67.81%
51.29%
303.36%
147.93%
194.72%
197.52%
106.48%
325.74%
199.13%
130.47%
73.96%
71.03%
84.76%
121.85%
84.96%
49.39%
93.45%
51.97%
NA
72.99%
145.30%
86.23%
253.30%
133.10%
186.91%
116.86%
103.31%
NA
-48.77%
NA
NA
21.06%
8.53%
3.66%
-0.63%
10.22%
14.08%
11.39%
4.46%
9.21%
-1.42%
13.28%
9.52%
7.78%
9.05%
0.89%
-0.83%
5.37%
4.60%
5.35%
12.02%
-1.11%
52.53%
-4.60%
1.04%
-5.98%
7.31%
4.20%
10.08%
169.16%
7.99%
24.08%
19.07%
18.58%
14.60%
-3.34%
-1.69%
20.21%
NA
8.89%
0.62%
7.37%
4.99%
22.85%
4.94%
1.44%
9.65%
Payout Ratio
19.22%
30.42%
NA
45.78%
26.18%
29.52%
55.57%
0.08%
64.22%
42.22%
31.19%
38.53%
0.00%
NA
NA
20.25%
31.76%
128.03%
42.87%
45.97%
87.28%
14.38%
18.92%
24.60%
52.57%
NA
0.70%
68.73%
61.62%
98.64%
53.33%
NA
56.76%
1.03%
4.51%
30.54%
43.74%
13.76%
48.73%
NA
24.01%
15.58%
46.38%
24.57%
10.01%
27.94%
38.73%
17.23%
23.67%
21.64%
19.60%
Reinvestment Rate
Sales/Capital
-21.12%
0.91
-0.70%
1.53
1.07%
1.64
5.40%
1.72
7.61%
1.12
5.88%
2.72
0.00%
NA
0.00%
NA
0.00%
NA
0.00%
NA
2.43%
1.26
5.44%
1.28
32.29%
0.36
35.06%
2.35
9.82%
0.34
72.35%
0.78
10.54%
1.04
-11.42%
1.32
4.58%
1.40
0.89%
1.50
-8.92%
1.38
-12.13%
1.04
-8.85%
2.04
2.32%
1.50
15.66%
1.04
NA
0.88
-6.71%
1.46
29.04%
0.66
38.50%
0.53
63.74%
0.65
-23.41%
1.09
-32.37%
1.72
-23.67%
0.45
-51.07%
1.32
4.94%
0.79
5.25%
0.09
-2.11%
1.50
55.21%
3.91
-17.96%
1.70
-101.36%
0.48
9.03%
1.95
37.15%
3.24
-26.80%
0.91
8.52%
2.81
57.76%
1.13
-4.20%
0.61
-2.57%
1.66
13.15%
4.10
9.65%
1.99
-22.29%
0.85
0.43%
NA
EV/Sales
2.13
1.10
1.15
1.47
1.00
0.56
NA
NA
NA
NA
2.67
3.08
10.79
0.73
4.44
2.45
1.53
1.72
1.70
1.28
1.40
3.73
1.46
1.08
4.53
2.60
3.94
1.79
2.41
1.76
3.35
1.02
3.21
2.29
2.15
15.24
1.42
0.60
0.74
2.74
0.99
0.37
2.50
0.71
1.40
2.49
2.50
0.55
0.97
4.14
NA
31.39%
NA
188.13%
0.00%
52.73%
NA
78.01%
5.59%
28.61%
37.10%
77.67%
70.99%
394.65%
27.33%
15.76%
21.89%
55.18%
109.42%
56.90%
18.97%
9.21%
19.04%
66.78%
118.74%
81.51%
165.10%
24.01%
26.34%
15.60%
16.31%
14.46%
17.21%
23.57%
45.28%
NA
20.94%
42.23%
9.35%
NA
74.69%
NA
36.70%
41.73%
56.37%
43.67%
11.99%
42.75%
50.77%
NA
44.79%
328.60%
-6559.63%
-34.33%
2.74%
6.07%
28.02%
NA
6.58%
13.65%
4.18%
7.79%
42.60%
59.84%
-12.21%
-10.71%
15.89%
-8.60%
-17.97%
24.13%
46.58%
49.12%
153.08%
-16.95%
-28.30%
-33.55%
49.82%
23.17%
NA
37.61%
15.69%
64.36%
60.93%
48.07%
-25.71%
-22.28%
16.71%
18.99%
-1.95%
-142.06%
-5.36%
-77.39%
0.00%
-5.28%
4.89%
-0.74%
123.87%
27.19%
29.95%
39.76%
6.90%
NA
0.90
NA
NA
1.33
3.53
0.62
2.03
1.98
1.45
0.88
0.77
0.49
0.75
1.74
1.07
1.27
1.06
1.84
0.50
4.53
0.49
0.47
1.16
1.95
0.13
0.53
0.90
1.40
2.52
2.56
2.69
0.26
0.75
0.61
2.36
1.50
1.35
0.93
0.72
1.49
NA
2.63
2.05
2.05
1.81
0.85
0.37
0.76
0.86
NA
5.29
NA
NA
1.30
0.68
1.74
0.91
2.18
1.50
2.36
1.82
2.74
3.23
1.17
2.37
1.20
1.27
0.98
4.01
0.64
2.05
6.11
2.00
1.29
19.67
2.40
2.36
1.75
0.89
1.42
0.89
3.34
4.37
4.88
1.18
1.01
0.75
4.50
2.22
0.64
NA
0.49
1.32
2.68
0.86
1.43
3.93
2.55
2.10