Journal of Cleaner Production: Review

Journal of Cleaner Production 211 (2019) 83e102
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Journal of Cleaner Production

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro
Review
A review of climate change implications for built environment:

Impacts, mitigation measures and associated challenges in developed
and developing countries
c, Muammer Koc, Sami G. Al-Ghamdi*
Ivan Andri
Division of Sustainable Development, College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Doha, Qatar
a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t
Article history: This interdisciplinary review organizes, summarizes and critically analyzes the literature regarding the
Received 31 July 2018 nexus between climate change and the built environment, its associated impacts, and the proposed
Received in revised form mitigation measures and challenges for their implementation. While global warming-driven changes of
22 October 2018
ecosystems could have multiple impacts on the built environment (most prominently on building energy
Accepted 13 November 2018
Available online 14 November 2018
demand and related urban energy systems), the building sector presents significant potential for climate
change mitigation. Study findings indicate that building renovations have significant potential for the
mitigation of urban-related emissions and achieving the sustainability goals set. However, these mea-
Keywords:
Climate change
sures should be adapted to different climate conditions and different segments of the building stock. In
Buildings developed countries, where the majority of the building stock is older than 50 years, more effort should
Renovation be invested into creating adequate policies for the renovation of existing building stock. In developing
Policy countries with rapid growth in the urban environment, due to a previous lack of energy-efficiency
policies, the focus should be on policy development and an increase in environmental awareness
among building owners/tenants. Moreover, additional research efforts should be invested into per-
forming technoeconomic and environmental analyses of green wall performance under future climate
conditions, especially within the hot and humid climates.
© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Contents
1. Introduction and background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

1.1. Climate change and the urban environment nexus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
1.2. Future implications and proposed mitigation measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
1.3. Challenges for the implementation of proposed mitigation measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
1.4. Objectives and review outline . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
2. Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3. The impacts of climate change on building energy demand & energy systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.1. The impacts on energy demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
3.2. Implications for energy systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.2.1. Decentralized air-conditioning (AC) systems and power grids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.2.2. District heating systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
3.2.3. District cooling systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
4. The efficiency of building renovations as a mitigation measure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
4.1. The efficiency of passive renovation measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
4.2. The efficiency of active renovation measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
4.3. The efficiency of additional renovation measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
5. The implementation of building renovation measures: challenges and considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: [email protected] (S.G. Al-Ghamdi).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.128
0959-6526/© 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
84 I. Andric et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 211 (2019) 83e102
5.1. Policy framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

5.2. Economic aspect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
5.3. Environmental aspect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
6. Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
Abbreviations used E op;rf Reference environmental impact of building

operation
EPS Expanded Polystyrene E elf ;rf Reference environmental impact of recycling/
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council landfilling
GCM Global Circulation Model E rf Building environmental impact prior to renovation
GIS Geographic Information System E rn Environmental impact of building renovation
KSA Kingdom of Saudi Arabia E op;rn Environmental impact of building operation after
LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging renovation
SABO Swedish Association of Housing Companies (Sveriges E elf ;rn Environmental impact of recycling/landfilling after
Allma€nnyttiga Bostadsfo
€retag) renovation
UAE United Arab Emirates E t;rn Total building environmental impact after renovation
WWR Window-to-Wall ratio t lf building lifetime period
XPS Extruded Polystyrene t cs building construction period
t op building operation period
Nomenclature used t op;r building operation period prior to renovation
E t;rf Reference total building environmental impact t op;rn building operation period after renovation
E cs Environmental impact of building construction t elf recycling/landfilling period
1. Introduction and background consumption and CO2 emissions in developed and developing
countries is significantly higher. For example, the building sector
1.1. Climate change and the urban environment nexus in the U.S. is responsible for approximately 40% of total energy use
on a national level, where at least 65% of energy in buildings is
Climate change has been verified by measured air and ocean consumed for heating, cooling, and lighting services (U.S.
temperatures, extensive snow and ice melting, and the rise in Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable
average ocean and sea level (IPCC, 2014). The influence of Energy, 2010; U.S. Energy Information and Administration,
anthropogenic factor on the climate system is 2012). In Europe, the building sector accounts for more than 40%
obviousdanthropogenic-related greenhouse gas emissions had a of the European Union's energy consumption (European
thirty-six-fold increase since the beginning of the industrial era, Parliament, 2010), despite the relatively moderate climate con-
and the majority of research studies indicate that anthropogenic ditions in the majority of the countries. The main reason for such
drivers have been the dominant cause of global warming (IPCC, energy consumption levels is the fact that more than 40% of the
2014). The nexus between climate change and the built environ- European building stock is older than 40 years (European
ment is complex and intertwined as depicted in Fig. 1. On the one Parliament, 2010; Kylili et al., 2016). The majority of the building
hand, the built environment is vulnerable to climate change. Po- stock was erected during the reconstruction wave following
tential impacts can be categorized into four main groups: impacts World War II in order to mitigate the general housing shortage
on building structures (caused by environmental catastrophes caused by the war (Eurostat, 2010; Hrabovszky-Horva th et al.,
such as floods, landslides, storms, and excess snow load), building 2013). These buildings, most of which were erected during the
construction (decay of fastening and water supply systems), post-war economic boom of the ‘60s and ‘70s, have poor thermal
building material properties (diminished performance of frost- performance and thus require significant amounts of energy to
resistance, UV-resistance, and insulation due to material decay), maintain indoor comfort conditions (Eurostat, 2010; Fotopoulou
and indoor climate/energy use (increase in indoor temperatures et al., 2018; Schitzer et al., 2014; Shahrokni et al., 2014; Xing
and relative humidity levels), as elaborated by Hacker et al. (2005) et al., 2011). In regions with extreme climate conditions, such as
and Hrabovszky-Horva th et al. (2013). This review focuses on the hot climates in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries,
relationship between climate change and energy use in buildings. the levels of building energy consumption are even higher,
Such relationship is reciprocal - due to the current energy con- especially in the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries that
sumption levels, the building sector has higher climate change have a high growth rate of urbanization. For example, in Qatar,
impacts, hence mitigation potential, than any other sector (Dalla cooling in buildings account for more than 50% of total energy
Mora et al., 2018), with potential savings of 42% in energy use consumption (Bayram et al., 2018; Kharseh and Al-Khawaja,
and 35% in greenhouse gas emissions, and reduction of material 2016). Buildings in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA)
extraction by more than 50% (Sierra-Pe rez et al., 2018). According consumed about 65% of total electricity produced, which was 47%
to the International Energy Agency (International Energy Agency, higher than the world average for the same year, 2010 (Alaidroos
2007) and the study by Seyboth et al. (2008), building heating and and Krarti, 2015; Said et al., 2003). In Kuwait, the building sector
cooling services account for more than 30% of global energy accounts for almost 70% of the total primary energy consumption,
consumption. However, the share of the building sector in energy with 45% of total electricity consumption being attributed to air-
I. Andric et al. / Journal of Cleaner Production 211 (2019) 83e102 85
Fig. 1. Climate change and the built environment nexus.
conditioning systems (Ameer and Krarti, 2016; Kuwait Ministry of increase, with peak heat waves occurring more often and lasting
Electricity and Water, 2014, 2010). Dabaieh et al. (2015) reported longer in the future (IPCC, 2014), increasing the demand for
that in countries with hot climates such as Egypt, 70e80% of total cooling and thus building energy consumption. Additionally,
energy consumption is used in order to operate mechanical according to the findings of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmo-
cooling systems. spheric Administration), colder seasons are warming at faster
rate than warmer seasons (Arndt, 2014), which could result in
1.2. Future implications and proposed mitigation measures reduced heating and increased cooling season duration even for
more temperate climates. Moreover, significant growth of urban
Without mitigation measures, building sector-related emis- environments is predicted in the decades to come due to a rapid
sions could significantly increase in the future, considering that population increase (according to UN report (United Nations,
there is a high probability that outdoor temperatures will 2015), the global population will reach 10 billion by 2056) and
migrations from rural to urban areas (by 2050, the current urban 1.3. Challenges for the implementation of proposed mitigation
population of 3.9 billion could reach 6.4 billion (International measures
Organization for Migration, 2015)). This aspect is particularly
important in developing countriesdfor example, in Qatar, the While the large-scale application of suggested renovation
population grew from 676,498 in 2002 to 2,529,048 in 2018 (out measures, which are in accordance with building energy codes,
of which, 92% live in the capital city, Doha), which is an increase could have additional benefits, such as reduction in renovation time
of 245% over a 16-year period (Qatar Ministry of Development due to the high degree of prefabrication options for materials and
Planing and Statistics, 2018). elements used for renovations, the process still faces many chal-
In order to impose efficient energy use in new buildings, many lenges that currently hinder the process. For example, while the
countries have developed and implemented building energy codes, suggested renovation rate in the U.K. is 600,000 homes per year, in
which dictate energy-efficiency requirements for new buildings. In reality, less than 1000 homes are annually renovated in accordance
European Union, for example, following the 91/2002/EC directive with the suggested energy-efficiency standards (Fawcett et al.,
on building energy performance, all member states developed 2011)). This poses the following question: what obstacles and
energy codes for their building stock (Hrabovszky-Horv ath et al., challenges are hindering the large-scale building renovation pro-
2013). Additionally, a communication report between the Euro- cess, and how to overcome them?
pean Commission and European Parliament entitled “Roadmap for In general, sustainability measures should encompass a com-
moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” (European bination of environmental, economic, and social responsibilities
Comission, 2011) implies that significant efforts are necessary in (Taleb and Sharples, 2011), and energy-efficiency policies are
order to reduce building energy consumption (Caputo and Pasetti, frequently criticized for being largely based on the assumed
2017). Moreover, European cities are investing significant effort rational behavior of the stakeholders and decision-makers for
into improving their energy efficiency. According to the analysis choosing the most energy-efficient measures and/or implementing
performed by Reckien et al. (2018), out of 885 cities across the 28 them the right way (Palm and Reindl, 2016). Building renovation
European countries considered within the study, over 66% have measures are no exception, and three main challenges can be
developed some form of an energy-efficiency plan. On the other defined. The first challenge is of a social nature: currently, most
hand, in GCC countries, the thermal performance and energy con- tenants and house owners have a low level of knowledge on the
sumption of the building sector was initially neglected by local topic of sustainability practices, let alone building renovation
energy authorities, and as a consequence, such a lack of energy- measures. Hence their motivation for significant renovations is
efficiency standards and regulations has increased building en- usually at low levels unless the right mix of incentives and regu-
ergy consumption furthermore over the last decade (Kharseh and lations are developed. While all stakeholders in the building
Al-Khawaja, 2016). However, in the last couple of years, energy renovation process have expertise in their own area, their knowl-
authorities in GCC countries have focused on developing energy- edge in the areas of expertise of the other stakeholders involved is
efficiency policies, including the building energy codes (such as rather low, which makes the communication rather difficult. The
Tarsheed initiative for example, Qatar's national program for con- second challenge is of an economic nature: building renovation
servation and efficient use of water and electricity). measures present a significant initial cost for the building owner
While imposing strict energy requirements for new buildings and/or tenants, with a relatively long investment return period (ten
could resolve the issue for the building stock currently in or more years on average (Johansson et al., 2017)). The third chal-
development, achieving the efficiency goals for the existing lenge arises from an environmental aspect: renovation measures
building stock in developed countries, presents quite a chal- require the investment of additional resources (insulation material
lenging task. In such countries, the majority of the building stock for renovations, its transportation, and landfilling/recycling upon
is older than 40 years (Eurostat, 2010; Kylili et al., 2016) and the the building demolition) over a building's lifetime, which may in-
rate at which old buildings are progressively replaced by new crease overall building environmental impacts if the environmental
ones is almost negligible (0.05%e0.1% of the total building stock benefits of energy saved during a building's operation do not
(Thomsen and Van Der Flier, 2009)). A widely acknowledged outweigh the additional impacts caused. Thus, taking into account
mitigation measure is the implementation of large-scale building building energy efficiency, economic, and environmental factors, as
renovation measures. By improving the energy efficiency of the well as the relationship of social actors (tenants and house owners)
building envelope, heat exchange between the outdoor and in- with semiotic aspects embedded in the urban environment
door environment decreases, reducing the amount of heating and (Gieryn, 2002; Palm and Reindl, 2016; Star, 1990; Woolgar, 1991),
cooling energy required to reach indoor comfort conditions, and the successful integration of energy-related building renovations
consequently reducing building energy consumption. For requires a high level of cooperation between various actors and
example, Sweden's national strategy for building stock renova- stakeholders that possess expertise in different areas such as
tion states that 75% of the current building stock (approximately building physics, economics, environmental assessment methods,
1.8 million apartments) will need comprehensive renovations by and social sciences (Palm and Reindl, 2016).
2050 in order to meet the energy saving goals set, which implies
a renovation rate of 52,000 apartments per year (Palm and 1.4. Objectives and review outline
Reindl, 2016). Additionally, the Swedish Association of Housing
Companies (SABO: Sveriges Allma €nnyttiga Bostadsfo €retag) re- The main scope of this study is to provide in-depth, multi-
ported that the renovation of post-World War buildings in disciplinary insights into climate change implications for the en-
Sweden could not only significantly reduce national energy ergy performance of the built environment, related impacts, and
consumption, but also improve the quality of life within the potential mitigation measures and associated challenges for their
renovated neighborhoods, making them more attractive and implementation in developed and developing countries. Primarily,
secure (Johansson et al., 2017; Sveriges Allma €nnyttiga the scale of climate change impacts on building energy demand in
Bostadsfo € retag, 2009). In the United Kingdom, it has been esti- the future is evaluated based on the previous findings available
mated that at least 600,000 homes should be renovated each within the current literature. Secondarily, the potential implica-
year in order to meet the national 2050 carbon reduction targets tions of changed demand for building and urban energy systems
(Energy Saving Trust, 2010; Fawcett et al., 2011). are discussed. In order to identify the most suitable mitigation
Table 1
Database distribution and search keywords used.
Category A B C D E F G H I J K L M Total Keywords
The impact of climate change & built 2 6 1 1 1 11 Climate change, urban environment, built environment, building sector
environment
Climate change impact on building energy 32 1 1 1 35 Climate change, building energy demand, heating demand, cooling demand
demand
Climate change impact on building energy 12 5 1 18 Climate change, building system, district heating, district cooling, air-conditioning
systems
Building renovation as a mitigation measure 50 1 1 9 1 1 63 Climate change, buildings, renovation, retrofitting, refurbishment
Policy & societal aspects of renovation 12 3 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 24 Climate change, building renovation, policy, society, optimization, efficiency, large-
scale
Economic aspects of renovation 10 1 11 Climate change, building renovation, cost, cost effectiveness, economic
Environmental aspects of renovation 7 7 Climate change, building renovation, LCA, emergy, environmental, impact
Total 169
A e Science Direct; B - Springer; C - Taylor & Francis; D - SAGE; E MDPI; F e Wiley & Sons; G e Inderscience Publishers; H e Frontiers Media; I e Emerald Group Publishing; J
e Governmental and environmental agencies; K e Conference proceedings; L e Academic theses; M-book chapter.
measure, the efficiency of different building renovation measures previously studied within the literature in multiple studies, which
are reviewed and compared. Finally, challenges and obstacles for evaluated the current state of the observed building stock, and its
the large-scale implementation of such measures are discussed energy performance under current and forecasted weather condi-
from the policy, economic and environmental standpoints. tions (as given in Table 2). An initial overview of the impacts was
elaborated upon in 2012 by de Wilde and Coley (2012). However,
2. Methods significant research efforts were published over the 2012e2018
period, which will be further summarized and analyzed within this
Several literature sources were considered in order to collect subsection along with the papers published prior to 2012 in order
and categorize the bibliography for this review. Primarily, peer- to provide a detailed knowledge database to the reader. An over-
reviewed journal papers published in English were considered, view of the impacts assessed is provided in Table 2, sorted by the
published until April 2018. Several renowned (Science Direct, Tay- case study location. Since the authors considered various time
lor & Francis, Springer, SAGE, Wiley & Sons, Emerald Group Pub- horizons, in order to enable a comparison of the impacts on a
lishing) and emerging (MDPI, Frontiers Media) scientific databases similar basis (or as close as possible), the results within the table are
were considered for the initial survey. Additional sources such as given for the year that was most common for the scenarios
book chapters, academic thesis, conference proceedings, and re- usedd2050. However, in instances where the year 2050 was not
ports from environmental and governmental agencies were also considered, the impacts for the closest timeline are used for com-
considered in order to improve the coverage of the research ma- parison (for example, if the study considered the years 2070 and
terial available. In order to refine the search, based on the facts 2100 within the scenarios, the results for 2070 are used within
presented within the introductory section, seven categories were Table 2). Additionally, while some studies provided results in the
considered, as shown in Table 1 (categorized analogue to the form of heating and cooling demand, several studies used total
methodology previously applied by Mannan et al. (2018)). In order building energy demand (which includes electricity consumption
to perform the search for each category, several keywords were for lighting and appliances). However, several studies (Invidiata
used. Considering that two keywords were common for all cate- and Ghisi, 2016; Radhi, 2009; Shen, 2017a; Shibuya and Croxford,
gories (climate change, building), the literature was categorized 2016; Wang et al., 2010) provided results in both forms, which
based on the match of at least three keywords. After the initial will be addressed in detail later on within this subsection. For better
categorization, final filters were applied. The studies that were clarity, within Table 2 and in further text, decrease in energy de-
addressing solely the heat island effect were disregarded from mand is denoted with a “e” prefix, while an increase is denoted
further considerations, due to the fact that the effect itself (higher with a “þ” prefix.
outdoor temperatures in dense urban environments compared to The general assumption made by the authors of the reviewed
rural environments) is rather a consequence of urbanization studies was that during summer months, due to the increased
(building agglomeration and materials used for the construction) outdoor temperatures, the difference between the indoor comfort
than the climate change itself. Duplicates were also removed: if the set point temperature and outdoor temperature will increase,
study was published in both the thesis/conference and one of the consequently increasing the energy demand for cooling. On the
scientific databases in form of a journal paper, it was considered other hand, during the winter months, the difference between the
solely as a journal publication. It should be noted that Elsevier's indoor comfort set point temperature and outdoor temperature
Energy Procedia was treated as a journal in this study, and all will decrease, reducing the energy demand for heating. The ma-
conference proceedings published within the volumes available jority of the studies used CCWorldWeatherGen tool (developed at
were treated as journal publications. The final selection included the University of Southampton) for developing weather scenarios.
140 journal papers, 20 governmental and environmental reports, 4 In order to predict future weather conditions, the tool requires two
conference proceedings, 3 academic thesis and 2 book chapters, main inputs: output files from the Hadley Centre HadCM3 Global
resulting in total of 169 studies reviewed. Circulation Model for the A2 family of IPPC (Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change) scenarios and TMY (Typical Meteoro-
3. The impacts of climate change on building energy demand logical Year) for the study location. The assumption proved to be
& energy systems true in all studies reviewed, with the rate of increase/decrease
varying depending on the climate conditions of the location stud-
3.1. The impacts on energy demand ied. According to the results presented, buildings located in hot
climates will have the most dramatic shift in heating/cooling de-
The impacts of climate change on building energy demand were mand ratio. For example, in the humid subtropical climate
Table 2
Overview of climate change impacts on building energy demand in different regions.
Study Country City Reference Observed Heat demand decrease Cooling demand Total building energy
period period [%]B increase [%] demand [%]
Australia
Wang et al. (2010) Australia Alice Springs 1990 2050 50 to-65 þ62 to þ84 þ41 to þ56
Darwin * þ39 to þ57 þ39 to þ57
Hobart 19 to 28 þ79 to þ173 19 to 26
Melbourne 30 to 42 þ69 to þ111 16 to 20
Sydney 66 to 81 þ93 to þ146 þ61 to þ101
Guan Guan, 2009 Adelaide 2008 2070 þ36
Brisbane þ35
Canberra þ40
Darwin þ45
Hobart þ29
Melbourne þ28
Pert þ31
Sydney þ59
Guan (2012) Adelaide 2011 2070 þ9.8
Brisbane þ11.7
Canberra þ9.3
Darwin þ15.1
Hobart þ6.4
Melbourne þ9.1
Pert þ9.8
Sydney þ11.6
Europe
Waddicor et al. (2016) Italy Turin 2010 2050 16 þ30

Nik and Sasic Kalagasidis, Sweden Stockholm 2011 2081e2100 25 to 30 þ2 to þ14
2013
Tettey et al. (2017) V€ €
axjo 1961e1990 2050e2060 22 þ27
Dodoo et al. (2014) V€ €
axjo 1996e2005 2050 13 to 16 þ39 to þ49
Berger et al. (2014) Austria Vienna 1980e2008 2050 11 to 30 þ28 to þ92
Jylh€
a et al. (2015) Finland Vantaa 1980e2009 2050 14 to 17 þ28 to þ34
Andric et al., 2016a,b Portugal Lisbon 2010 2050 6.7 to 37.1
Dolinar et al. (2010) Slovenia Ljubljana 2005 2050 14 to 32 þ56 to þ916
Portoroz 6 þ61 to 102 e
Vidrih and Medved (2008) Ljubljana 1992e2003 Not def. þ42 to þ170
Sabunas and Kanapickas Lithuania Kaunas 1990e1999 2080 þ15 to þ15.6%
(2017)
Americas
Shen (2017a) United States Philadelphia 1961e1990 2040e2069 14.7 to 27.4 þ27 to þ35.2 1.64 to 6
Chicago 16.4 to 28.5 þ24.8 to þ32.9 4.3 to 9.4
Phoenix 35.4 to 48.9 þ17.4 to 24.2 þ4.9 to þ6.9
Miami *1 þ26.6 to þ36.4 þ14 to 19.5
Jiang et al. (2017) Daytona 1991e2005 2050 48 þ36
Jacksonville 46 þ43
Key West 68 þ27
Miami 79 þ30
Orlando 57 þ35
Pensacola 48 þ41
Tallahassee 50 þ43
Tampa 61 þ35
L. Wang et al. (2017a) Miami 2006 2050 þ6.5
Phoenix þ8
Los Angeles þ6
Washington þ2
Akron þ1
Angeles et al. (2017) Cuba 2006e2020 2041e2060 þ8.6
Dominican þ8.7
Republic
Guatemala þ16.7
Haiti þ8.9
Panama þ8.1
Puerto Rico þ8.2
Trinidad & þ7.7
Tobago
Venezuela þ12.9
Invidiata and Ghisi (2016) Brazil Curitiba 2015 2050 79 þ210 þ56
polis
Floriano 82 þ120 þ112
m
Bele * þ70 þ11
Asia
Y. Wang et al. (2017) China Jinan 2020 2050 þ30.7

Table 2 (continued )
Study Country City Reference Observed Heat demand decrease Cooling demand Total building energy
period period [%]B increase [%] demand [%]
Xiang and Tian (2013) Tianjin 1971e2010 2011e2050 18.1

Wan et al. (2011) Harbin 1971e2000 2001e2100 6.1
Beijing þ1.9
Shanghai 3.4
Kunming þ7.9
Hong Kong þ7.6
Huang and Hwang (2016) Taiwan Taipei 2000e2010 2050 * þ59 e
Yau and Hasbi (2017) Malaysia Kuala 2000 2050 þ8
Lumpur
Shibuya and Croxford Japan Sapporo 1990e1999 2040e2050 27 þ23 þ3
(2016) Tokyo 263.6 þ17 þ13
Naha * þ9 þ9
Radhi (2009) United Arab Al-Ain 2009 2050 9.5 to 39.2 þ7.3 to 24.1 þ4.1 to þ12.5
Emirates
Roshan et al. (2012) Iran 2005 2050 14 þ30
Africa
Ouedraogo et al. (2012) Burkina Faso 2010e2029 2030e2049 * þ56

1
*heating or cooling demand was non-existent in the reference year.
(according to the Ko €ppen climate classification) of Sydney,

Australia, annual heat demand could decrease by up to 81%, while
the cooling demand could increase to almost 150% (Wang et al.,
2010). Other case studies for buildings located in humid subtropi-
cal climates have similar findings (Table 2): Invidiata and Ghisi
(2016) and Jiang et al. (2017) estimate rates of 82/þ120%
and 79/þ41% of heating/cooling demand decrease/increase for
buildings located in Floriano polis (Brazil) and southern Florida
(United States). On the other hand, the impact in colder climates are
significantly lower: for the case studies of the Swedish building
stock (Dodoo et al., 2014; Nik and Sasic Kalagasidis, 2013; Tettey
et al., 2017), the average decrease/increase rate is 21/þ26%. The
most extreme decrease in heat demand of 264% (Shibuya and
Croxford, 2016) for the timelines observed was noted for Tokyo
(Japan), while the most extreme increase in cooling demand
(þ150%) was obtained by Wang et al. (2010) for Sydney (Australia).
However, it should be noted that decrease/increase rates are
relative to the reference heating/cooling ratio of the building
Fig. 2. Comparison of impacts obtained by the authors for the same locations.
observed. In other words, a higher percentage decrease in heating
demand than the percentage increase in cooling demand does not
necessarily mean that the total building energy demand will It should be noted that the results obtained by different authors
decrease, and vice versa. For example, if the observed building has a for the same case study location can vary (Fig. 2). For example, the
significantly higher ratio of cooling in total building energy con- increase rates in total building energy consumption for four
sumption, total building energy demand in the future will increase, Australian cities (Darwin, Hobart, Melbourne, and Sydney) that
even if the percentage reduction in heat demand is significantly were featured in studies by both Wang et al. (2010) and Guan
higher than the percentage increase in cooling demand. This (2012) differed significantly. For example, the study by Guan sug-
assumption is supported by the results of the case studies of Tokyo gested an increase in building energy demand of þ11.6% in 2070 for
(Japan) by Shibuya and Croxford (2016) and Hobart (Australia) by buildings situated in Sydney, while the study by Wang et al. sug-
Wang et al. (2010). In the case of Tokyo, total building energy de- gested an increase of approximately 80% (average value within a
mand in 2050 increased by approximately þ13%, even after the given range). Moreover, while in the study of Wang et al., building
decrease in heating demand of 263% and increase in cooling de- energy demand in the cases of Hobart and Melbourne decreased by
mand of approximately þ17%. Such a result can be justified by the approximately 22% and 18%, respectively, the results from
fact that for the reference weather conditions in Tokyo (which has a Guan's study suggested an increase of approximately þ6% and þ9%,
cooling-predominant, humid subtropical climate), heating demand respectively. The results for Miami and Phoenix also differed be-
had a share of only 5% of total building energy consumption, while tween the studies by Shen (2017a) and L. Wang et al. (2017a),
space cooling was responsible for almost 95% of building energy although less drasticallydin the case of Miami, the difference was
use. Shen (2017a) had similar findings for the case study of Phoenix nine percentage points, while in the case of Phoenix, the difference
(Arizona, U.S.) with a hot desert climatedbuilding energy demand was less than two percentage points.
increased by up to þ7% after the 49% and þ24% decrease/increase Such variations in results between the two case studies for
in heating/cooling demand, respectively. On the other hand, in Australia can be explained by differences in the modeling ap-
Hobart (which has a mild temperate oceanic climate), total building proaches used and building types considered. The authors used
energy demand decreased by up to 26%, even after the þ173% different weather databases and climate models to create a repre-
increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand of sentative meteorological year for a reference case and future
just 28%. weather scenarios (nine different global circulation models (GCMs)
and a morphing approach (Wang et al., 2010) vs. one GCM and an oil, and that the economy of Kuwait is largely based on oil exports
improved imposed offset method (Guan, 2012)), as well as different (87% of all exports), an increase in local consumption would lower
building energy modeling tools (AccuRate (Wang et al., 2010) vs. the exports and consequently the country's main revenue stream.
DOE-2.1E (Guan, 2012)). Furthermore, different building types (a The study by Ameer and Krarti (2016) suggested that as of early
four bedroom house (Wang et al., 2010) vs. a ten-story office 2017, almost 20% of Kuwait's national oil production is used in order
building (Guan, 2012)) and forecast horizons (2050 (Wang et al., to cover the local electricity demand. The findings of Alaidroos and
2010) vs. 2070 (Guan, 2012)) were considered. On the other hand, Krarti (2015) suggest an analogue scenario for the KSA. Finally, an
studies by Shen (2017a) and L. Wang et al. (2017b) used the same increase in cooling demand in these countries could increase the
climate and building modeling approaches (the morphing method environmental impact of the energy systems. Since their electricity
developed by Jentsch et al. (2013, 2008)) and EnergyPlus, respect- production is largely based on fossil fuel consumption, an increase
ably), which can explain the less significant differences between in electricity production would also significantly increase their
the results obtained. However, the authors used different case already substantial carbon footprint, and have a major impact on
study buildings: a low-raise residential building (Shen, 2017b) and air, land, and water quality (Alaidroos and Krarti, 2015; Alnatheer,
a medium-size office building (L. Wang et al., 2017b). In order to 2006). Potential solutions for this problem would be an increase
understand such variations in results, all studies on the topic in renewable and clean energy production and energy efficiency
should clearly state sources of reference regarding weather data, implementations. However, despite the abundance in resources for
building properties, and approaches used for climate and building renewable electricity production in these countries (solar radiation
energy modeling (as was the case in the four studies discussed and marine territory for offshore wind farms), the use of such
within this paragraph). Furthermore, as the results suggest, the sustainable technologies such as solar plants and wind farms is
impacts should be presented for heating and cooling demand as exceptionally rare (Taleb and Sharples, 2011), mainly due to the fact
well as for total building energy consumption in order to fully that they are not considered to be financially feasible as fossil fuel
comprehend the impact scale. Moreover, based on the results cost is very low. However, due to the recent climate change accords
presented, it is relevant to perform simulations for different and plummeting oil prices, these countries are investing significant
building types in order to assess the impact on the built environ- effort in order to move from an oil-based economy to a more sus-
ment since the impact scale could vary between the types. Finally, it tainable one, which could result in an increase in renewable energy
should be noted that considering the uncertainties related to systems' participation in energy production.
climate change modeling, it is not expected that such studies will
provide precise results and dictate policies, but rather provide 3.2.2. District heating systems
future trends and guide them. In developed regions with a cold and temperate climates, such
as continental Europe, the shift in both heating and cooling demand
3.2. Implications for energy systems could have an impact on urban energy systems. In developed and
dense urban environments, heating services are provided by dis-
3.2.1. Decentralized air-conditioning (AC) systems and power grids trict heating systems, where heat is produced centrally in a heat
The suggested shift in building energy demand could have long- plant and then distributed via underground networks to con-
term impacts on energy systems, especially in developing countries sumers. The benefits of such systems are numerous: heat produc-
with hot climates, such as Arabian Gulf. In these countries, the tion in high-capacity units situated outside the dense urban
majority of cooling services are provided by mechanical decen- environment, the potential for the use of various renewable heat
tralized air-conditioning (AC) systems, which are the main con- sources (solar, geothermal, etc.) and waste heat, improved overall
sumers of electricity produced. It is a general estimation that in hot environmental and economic efficiency, comfort and security of
climate regions, up to 80% of total energy consumption can be supply, as well as lower heating prices for consumers. Due to such
attributed to mechanical cooling systems (Dabaieh et al., 2015). For benefits, the expansion of existing and the construction of new
example, air-conditioning in Kuwait accounts for 45% of total district heating systems has been widely proposed within envi-
electricity consumption, and it is responsible for 70% of electricity ronmental (Andri c et al., 2016b; Lake et al., 2017), economic (Gils
peak demand (Ameer and Krarti, 2016). Even under the current et al., 2013; Grundahl et al., 2016; Ziemele et al., 2015) research
climate conditions, Kuwait is facing challenges to meet the elec- studies and reports from environmental agencies (Connolly et al.,
tricity demand over the summer months, experiencing frequent 2012; Dolman et al., 2012) and governmental bodies (European
power outages and burnouts (Ameer and Krarti, 2016). The situa- Comission, 2012; European Parliament, 2016; The Scottish
tion is similar in Egypt, where the building sector accounts for Government, 2014). However, significant investments are
42.3% of national energy consumption: over the course of required in order to construct and enable the operation of district
2012e2013, the deficit between the electricity demand and elec- heating systems. The initial investments are returned through heat
tricity generation was almost 9%, which resulted in frequent sales over a relatively long investment return period. Thus, the
blackouts of 1e2 h per day (Dabaieh et al., 2015). Such stress on the feasibility of such systems is highly dependent on heat sales (i.e.,
grid will have multiple impacts. Primarily, from a social aspect, heat demand). Considering the heat demand decrease rates pre-
blackouts affect comfort and the everyday life of inhabitants. sented within Table 2, the investment return period could increase,
Secondarily, the current economy of such countries could be impacting the feasibility of such systems. For example, the studies
significantly impacted due to production and service downtimes. of cities located in Sweden (Dodoo et al., 2014; Nik and Sasic
Namely, during the Kuwait power outrage in February of 2015, Kalagasidis, 2013; Tettey et al., 2017), where district heating sys-
three oil refineries with capacities of 930,000 barrels per day were tems cover 40e60% of demand (Swedish Energy Agency
closed for one week, which had a significant impact on the national (Energimyndigheten), 2012), concluded that heat demand could
economy (Ameer and Krarti, 2016). Considering the predicted in- decrease by up to 30%, consequently reducing the district heat
crease in cooling demand, these outbreaks could become more demand density (the ratio between total annual district heat de-
frequent and last longer. However, even if the current power sys- mand and overall surface of the district), which is one of the main
tem is upgraded to cover the predicted increase in cooling demand, parameters for the feasibility assessment of district heating sys-
the surge in consumption could still hurt the economy. For tems. Additionally, reduced heat demand could significantly impact
example, considering that the electricity in Kuwait is generated by the operational parameters of the system. Usually, heat production
units in such systems are designed so that approximately 75% of the reference demand. Both base load and peak load units would be
demand is covered by a base load unit and 25% by a peak load unit. under significant strain and would become eventually insufficient,
Due to the heat demand reduction of over 50%, required pro- since both the demand and the number of hours with cooling de-
duction would be below the technical minimum of a base load unit, mand could increase significantly.
which would mean that most of the demand would be covered by In contrast to the case with heat demand and heating hours in
peak load units that commonly use fossil fuels. Consequently, heating-dominated climates, it is expected that in cooling-
prolonged operation of peak load units would increase operational dominated climates, the number of hours with cooling demand
costs and CO2 emissions. This aspect is crucial taking into account will increase in all climate subtypes, as it can be seen in Table 2
that incentives and subsidies for such systems are usually granted (with the increase rate variation based on the reference climate
based on the utilization of renewable energy sources in energy conditions). The most obvious solution would be the installation of
production. Moreover, a reduced number of heat demand hours additional cooling unitsdhowever, new units require additional
over the heating season would consequently result in continuous investment costs, which would consequently prolong the invest-
starts and stops in production, which would further reduce the ment return period for such systems. In order to retain the feasi-
efficiency of the overall system and increase the costs. However, the bility of such systems, district cooling utilities would be forced to
impact could vary between different climates suitable for heating increase the price of cooling services, which could cause customer
services (Andric et al., 2017a), depending on the demand decrease disconnections from the system. Aside from the improved comfort
rate (Table 2). In more severe climates, heat production units would for which customers decide to connect to district cooling systems in
be operating with reduced capacity, while the number of opera- the first place, another reason that attracts customers is the rela-
tional hours (i.e., hours with heat demand) would remain almost tively stable prices. If prices increase, customers may decide to shift
unchanged. Contrarily, in milder climates, both the required ca- towards some of the competitive decentralized technologies, such
pacity and number of operational hours would decrease. However, as heat pumps. These systems might present initial financial bur-
it should be mentioned that the feasibility values of district heat dens to customers compared to the district cooling system
demand density are based on currently available technologies, their connection, but they could realize the long-term profitability (due
limitations and prices, and could consequently fluctuate in the to the lower operational costs). On the other hand, for the district
future (especially since in certain countries, district heating sys- cooling systems in the design phase, increased demand in the
tems are eligible for substantial subsidies). future would mean increased district cooling demand density and
improved feasibility (if the production units are designed to cover
future demand rather than the reference one).
3.2.3. District cooling systems
District cooling systems are analogue to district heating sys-
tems: they distribute cooling capacity in the form of chilled water 4. The efficiency of building renovations as a mitigation
or some other medium from a central source to an urban envi- measure
ronment through a network of underground pipes (Energyland,
2018). While these systems share the same social, economic, and As discussed within the introductory section, building renova-
environmental benefits as district heating systems, the number of tions are currently the most commonly proposed measure for the
cooling systems in operation is significantly lower (according to mitigation of changed building energy patterns and reduction of
Werner (2017), district heating systems cover approximately 11.5 EJ building sector-related emissions. Building renovation measures
of heat demand across the E.U., U.S., and northern Asia, while dis- can be divided into three main categories: passive, active, and
trict cooling systems cover up to 300 PJ of cooling demand: additional measures as summarized in Table 3.
approximately 200 PJ is in the GCC region and 80 PJ is in the U.S.). Passive renovation measures include the application of addi-
The systems installed have a relatively high capacitydfor example, tional insulation layers, improving the envelope air-tightness,
the network located in Doha (Qatar) and operated by Qatar Cool is installation of energy-efficient glazing, the addition of solar-
currently the system with the largest capacity installed (450 MW), shading devices and overhangs, installation of green roofs/walls,
with an additional 1760 MW planned for the Lusail City Project. natural ventilation/night cooling, and changing the solar reflectiv-
However, up to a ten-fold increase in cooling demand (Table 2) ity and/or absorptivity of building envelope surfaces. The applica-
would result in a significant strain on the production units within tion of additional insulation layers improves the heat transfer
the existing district cooling systems, which were designed based on coefficient (U-value) of the envelope elements (walls, roofs, floors),
Table 3
An overview of building renovation measures.
Building renovation measures
Conventional measures
Passive measures Active measures
Additional insulation Solar panels (PV panels and solar collectors)

Improved air-tightness of the envelope Heat pumps
Energy efficient glazing Connection to district heating/cooling
Solar shading devices/overhangs Energy efficient lighting
Green roofs/walls Energy efficient appliances
Natural ventilation/night cooling Sophisticated control devices
Solar reflectivity/absorptivity
Additional measures
Thermal mass
Windows-to-wall ratio
Indoor comfort temperatures
which reduces the rate of heat transfer between the building's in- evaluate the efficiency of renovation measures as a climate change
door and outdoor environment (and thus reduces heating and mitigation measure rather than just building energy saving mea-
cooling demand). The current available and most commonly used sure, a life-cycle analysis should be performed in order to assess the
envelope insulation materials are expanded (EPS) and extruded balance between the impact of renovation material/equipment
(XPS) polystyrene, polyurethane, and glass wool, while emerging production/recycling and energy savings achieved, which will be
materials and technologies include aerogels, phase-change mate- addressed in detail in section 5.3 of this study.
rials, gas-filled panels, and vacuum insulation panels (Xing et al.,
2011). Improving the air-tightness of buildings by sealing cracks, 4.1. The efficiency of passive renovation measures
interstices, or other unintentional openings in building envelopes
reduces the uncontrolled inward and outward leakage of air caused In a study of residential buildings in the UAE, Radhi (2009)
by the pressure effects of wind and/or the stack effect (Limb, 1992). found that under future climate conditions, reducing the U-value
In order to reduce the air infiltration rate, these cracks and open- of the envelopes by applying additional insulation levels could
ings are either covered by polyethylene tape (Co2olBricks, 2013) or reduce heating and cooling demand by 23% and 20%, respec-
filled with silicone or mineral wool (Gillott et al., 2016). Installation tively. Consequently, total building energy demand decreased by up
of energy-efficient glazing such as double-pane windows (argon- to 15.9% (due to the fact that the ratio of heating and cooling in
filled and/or tinted) reduces solar gains and heat transfer. New total energy consumption was 93/7%). Other studies that addressed
glazing technologies, such as electrochromic glazing (electronically the performance of renovated residential buildings in locations
tintable glazing, whose solar properties can adapt to the variation with hot and humid climates (Brazil and Taiwan) had similar
of solar radiation while remaining transparent) are also expected to findings. In a case study of cities in Brazil (Invidiata and Ghisi,
reach market maturity (Paule et al., 2017) and could be used as a 2016), the authors concluded that improving envelope insulation
renovation measure in the upcoming years. Adding vegetation could decrease total building energy demand by up to 27%, while
layers on walls and roofs reduces the surface temperature of en- Huang and Hwang (2016) found that such a renovation measure
velopes (and consequently, energy use for cooling) due to the could achieve approximately 42% savings in cooling demand
shading and evapotranspirative effect of the plants (Charoenkit and under the climate conditions characteristic for Taiwan. A significant
Yiemwattana, 2016; Pe rez et al., 2011a). Natural ventilation (wind reduction in heat demand (up to 57%) could also be achieved in
driven ventilation and/or buoyancy-driven ventilation) is the pro- temperate climates by applying thermal insulation to residential
cess of supplying or removing air from the indoor environment by buildings, as was found in a case study of the Netherlands (Van
natural means, without the use of a mechanical system (Al-Sanea Hooff et al., 2016). On the other hand, in the studies of residential
et al., 2012). Night cooling refers to the operation of natural buildings located in colder climates, such as the one in Sweden, the
ventilation at night in order to remove excess heat and reduce in- reduction in heat demand was significantly lower (less than 15%
door temperatures. By covering building envelope surfaces with a for all three case study locations considered: Stockholm, Gothen-
coating that has high solar reflectivity and low solar absorbance, burg, and Lund (Nik et al., 2016, 2015)).
the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the surface is lowered, The installation of energy-efficient windows proved to be an
resulting in decreased solar gains and surface temperatures. efficient measure for reducing both heating and cooling demand in
On the other hand, through the active measures, a building's all climate types considered, ranging from approximately 9%
carbon footprint is reduced by utilizing renewable energy sources to 17% for heating demand, and 3% to 6% for cooling demand.
in order to cover the building's energy demand. These measures The combination of these two measures (envelope thermal insu-
include the installation of PV and solar thermal panels in order to lation and energy-efficient glazing) proved to be the most efficient
fully or partially cover building electricity and space heating/do- solution for reducing residential building heat demand in various
mestic hot water demand, respectively; heat pumps and connec- climate typesdup to 87% (Andric et al., 2018, 2017a; 2016a). In a
tions to district heating/cooling networks for heating/cooling case study of office buildings in Japan, the impact of such a com-
services; and the installation of energy-efficient lighting and ap- bination of measures on total building energy demand was less
pliances with sophisticated control devices in order to reduce in- significant: 8% in the heating-dominated city of Sapporo and 3%
ternal heat gains and electricity consumption. Additional in the cooling-dominated city of Naha (according to the figures
considerations could include changes to the thermal mass of the provided by the authors of the study). However, the result for
envelopes and window-to-wall ratio (WWR, increase or decrease of Tokyo, which has a cooling-dominated climate, was in con-
overall glazing surface) and changes in the comfort set point tem- trastdtotal building energy demand increased after the application
peratures. Considering that modifications to thermal mass and of additional insulation measures and the installation of energy-
WWR require changes to a building's structure (and require more efficient glazing. The authors of the study did not discuss this
pre-construction than post-construction strategy), and that particular result, but it can be assumed that an increase in total
changing the set point temperature can be considered more as a energy consumption was caused by overheating during summer
behavioral measure, it is the opinion of the authors that they should months due to increased insulation levels.
be considered as a separate category. The efficiency of passive (wall The effect of solar -shading devices/overhangs differed between
insulation ((Abdelrahman and Ahmad, 1991; Bolattürk, 2006; the studies. In the case studies of residential buildings in the climate
Kharseh and Al-Khawaja, 2016; Sadineni et al., 2011; Taleb and conditions found in Brazil (Invidiata and Ghisi, 2016), Taiwan (Huang
Sharples, 2011), thermal mass (Al-Sanea et al., 2012; Al-Sanea and and Hwang, 2016), Netherlands (Van Hooff et al., 2016), and Sweden
Zedan, 2011), shading devices (Aldawoud, 2013), green walls (Tettey et al., 2017), as well as office buildings in Burkina Faso
(Charoenkit and Yiemwattana, 2016), reflective roofs (Mohamed (Ouedraogo et al., 2012), limiting the amount of solar radiation that
et al., 2015) and active (appliances and efficient lighting (Ameer reaches the buildings' walls significantly reduced cooling demand (by
and Krarti, 2016; Harvey, 2009; Taleb, 2014)) renovation mea- approximately 30% to 90%). On the other hand, in case studies of
sures under current climate conditions has been previously residential buildings in the UAE (Radhi, 2009) and office buildings in
debated within the literature. However, considering the scope of Japan (Shibuya and Croxford, 2016), reduction in cooling demand was
this study, only studies that considered the performance of reno- significantly lower (less than 10% in all instances). However, in most
vation measures under future weather conditions will be discussed studies, the application of solar-shading devices and overhangs
within this section (Table 4). It should also be noted that in order to increased building heat demand due to the fact that solar gains were
Table 4
The effect of mitigation measures under future weather conditions.
Study Country City Horizon Renovation measure Effect [%]
Heating Cooling Total building energy

demand demand demand
Radhi (2009) UAE Al-Ain 2050 Thermal insulation 23.8 19.7 15.9
Thermal mass (þ)a 26.4 12.6 11.2
Solar shading devices 3.3 3.4 2.8
Energy efficient glazing 9.4 5.5 - 4.7
Windows-to-wall-ratio (þ) þ16.4 þ8.4 þ7.4
Nik et al. (2015) Sweden Gothenburg 2041 Thermal insulation 7.1 to 10.2
e2060 Energy efficient glazing 16.6
Nik et al. (2016) Sweden Stockholm 2041 Thermal insulation 7 to 13.9

e2060 Energy efficient glazing 14.7
Energy efficient lighting þ5
Energy efficient appliances þ13
Indoor comfort temperature 27.6
Gothenburg Thermal insulation 8.3 to 12.5
Energy efficient glazing 17.1
Energy efficient lighting þ5.6
Energy efficient appliances þ14.4
Lund Thermal insulation 8.2 to 14.7
Energy efficient lighting þ5.8
Energy efficient appliances þ14.6
Tettey et al. (2017) Sweden €xjo

Va € 2050 Energy efficient appliances þ20 40 35
Solar shading þ22 91 38
Andri
c et al., 2016a,b Portugal Lisbon 2050 Thermal insulation þ efficient 22.3 to 52.4
glazing
Andri
c et al. (2018) France Nantes 2050 Thermal insulation þ efficient 73
glazing
Van Hooff et al., 2016 Netherlands De Bilt Genericb Thermal insulation 57 4 to 7
Thermal mass () 1 to 2 þ16 þ4
Roof reflectivity 1 to 2 10 < 1
Solar shading devices þ1 74 6
Green roof 2 3 2
Natural ventilation 59 5
Huang and Hwang (2016) Taiwan Taipei 2050 Thermal insulation 31.3 to 42.3
Solar shading devices 37.5
Shibuya and Croxford (2016) Japan Sapporo 2040 Thermal insulation þ efficient 8
e2050 glazing
Energy efficient lighting 3
Indoor comfort temperature 17
Solar shading devices þ3
Night cooling 10
Tokyo Thermal insulation þ efficient þ2
glazing
Indoor comfort temperature 1
Night cooling þ9
Naha Thermal insulation þ efficient 3
glazing
Indoor comfort temperature þ2
Night cooling þ5
Andri
c et al., 2017a,b Canada Resolute 2050 Thermal insulation þ efficient 72 to 76
glazing
Canada Yellowknife Thermal insulation þ efficient 72 to 76
glazing
Germany Hamburg Thermal insulation þ efficient 77 to 82
glazing
Italy Milan Thermal insulation þ efficient 77 to 83
glazing
Spain Madrid Thermal insulation þ efficient 81 to 87
glazing
Invidiata and Ghisi (2016) Brazil Curitiba 2050 Thermal insulation 27
(continued on next page)

Table 4 (continued )
Study Country City Horizon Renovation measure Effect [%]
Heating Cooling Total building energy

demand demand demand
Solar absorbance 31

Solar shading devices 13
Florianopolis Thermal insulation 17
Solar absorbance 22
Belem Thermal insulation 27
Solar absorbance 12
Windows-to-wall-ratio 38
Ouedraogo et al. (2012) Burkina 2030 Thermal insulation 8

Faso e2049 Thermal mass (þ) þ3
Windows-to-wall ratio () 31
Guan (2012) Australia Adelaide 2070 Windows-to-wall ratio () 2.46

Brisbane Windows-to-wall ratio () 3.20
Canberra Windows-to-wall ratio () 1.83
Darwin Windows-to-wall ratio () 3.20
Hobart Windows-to-wall ratio () 1.24
Melbourne Windows-to-wall ratio () 1.85
Perth Windows-to-wall ratio () 3.06
Sydney Windows-to-wall ratio () 2.53
a
The suffix (þ)/() suggest that the characteristic was increased/decreased.
b
The authors used weather data from 2006 for future weather scenarios because 2006 was significantly warmer than average, with frequent heat waves.
reduced (consequently, more heat was required to reach indoor 2011a, 2011b; Perini et al., 2011, 2017; Wong et al., 2010; Yin
comfort conditions). et al., 2017) and modeling (Malys et al., 2016, 2014) studies, un-
Night cooling was addressed as a measure solely in the study by der current climate conditions, the application of green walls has
Shibuya and Croxford (2016), and the results indicated a decrease in promising results, reducing building energy demand in warm
total building energy demand of approximately 10% for office temperate and arid climates within a range of 5% to 50%, with
buildings in heating-dominated Sapporo, while interestingly, energy the most common reduction rate varying between 20% and 30%
load in cooling-dominated Tokyo and Naha slightly increased. On the rez et al., 2014). However, one modeling study (McPherson et al.,
(Pe
other hand, Van Hooff et al. (2016) concluded that natural ventilation 1988) that addressed the shading effect of vegetation on residential
could significantly reduce the cooling load for residential buildings in building energy consumption (under the weather conditions of
the Netherlands (up to 60%). According to the studies reviewed, four U.S. cities (Madison, Salt Lake City, Tucson, and Miami)), sug-
increasing the solar reflectivity of roofs could decrease cooling de- gested that heat demand could increase by up to þ21% due to
mand by approximately 10% (Van Hooff et al., 2016), while lowered solar gains. Nonetheless, while other renovation measures
lowering the solar absorptivity of walls could decrease total building have been widely accepted, policy makers and energy efficiency
energy demand by up to 30% (Invidiata and Ghisi, 2016). agencies are still reluctant to endorse the use of green walls simply
Green roofs were considered as a renovation measure in only due to the lack of replicated data sets (Cameron et al., 2014).
one of the studies reviewed. The study (Van Hooff et al., 2016) Currently, assessing the energy performance of buildings with in-
found that adding vegetation to roof structures could reduce tegrated green walls under future weather conditions presents a
heating and cooling demand by 2% and 3% (respectively) under challenging task due to the fact that the thermal simulation of
the forecasted weather conditions for the Netherlands. However, green walls is not readily available within the commercial BIM
the case study was focused on heating-dominated climates, while (Building Information Model) software packages. For the previously
green roofs are expected to have the highest effect in cooling- mentioned modeling studies, the authors either developed their
dominated climates. Additionally, it is expected that the effect of own model (either completely (Kontoleon and Eumorfopoulou,
green walls on building energy consumption will be significantly 2010; Malys et al., 2014; Susorova et al., 2013) or in the form of
higher than the effect of green roofs due to the larger surface an EnergyPlus software plug-in (Dahanayake and Chow, 2017)), or
available. In other words, green walls have a greater potential than used plug-ins already available for the simulation of vegetative
green roofs considering that within urban centers, the extent of roofs (such as the RoofVegetation model in the EnergyPlus software
façade greening can be double the ground footprint of buildings package) in order to model the performance of green walls (Carlos,
(Manso and Castro-Gomes, 2015). Moreover, green walls have 2015; Fantozzi et al., 2014; Griffonni et al., 2016; Lassandro and Di
multiple additional benefits, such as: improved urban biodiversity, Turi, 2017). Thus, according to the current literature, additional
storm water management and air quality; mitigation of the heat research efforts should be invested in experimental studies of green
island effect; improved health and wellbeing of the residents; wall performance in cooling-dominated hot climates, as well as in
improved acoustic protection, image and increased property value simulation model development in order to assess their perfor-
(Manso and Castro-Gomes, 2015). However, the performance of mance under future climate conditions.
green walls as a mitigation measure under future weather condi-
tions was not considered in the studies currently available within 4.2. The efficiency of active renovation measures
the literature. According to the experimental (Cameron et al., 2014;
Chen et al., 2013; Cheng et al., 2010; Hoelscher et al., 2016; Jim and As discussed previously, the installation of renewable energy
He, 2011; Mazzali et al., 2013; Olivieri et al., 2014; Pe rez et al., systems reduces or completely mitigates the emission levels of
renovated buildings (in the case that total building energy demand increase in cooling demand. The authors suggested that such
is fully covered by such systems). Currently, there are several sys- behavior might be caused by the fact that during nighttime, the rate
tems available, such as solar photovoltaic panels for electricity of heat release from the building envelope to the indoor environ-
production, solar thermal collectors for heat and domestic hot ment is reduced due to the very large time constant but relatively
water production, and heat pumps that can utilize various renew- low rate of nighttime ventilation (Ouedraogo et al., 2012). In other
able sources (such as air, geothermal energy, etc.) in order to cover words, the envelope maintains a high internal temperature over-
heating and cooling demand. As an alternative to such systems, night, increasing the cooling load during the following day.
connection to district energy systems with centralized energy As for the window-to-wall ratio, the studies by Guan (2012) and
production from renewable sources can be considered (for Ouedraogo et al. (2012) indicated that lowering the percentage of
example, several solar-powered district heating systems have glazing in office buildings would decrease the amount of solar gains
already been implemented in Denmark). Moreover, it is expected and thus cooling demand (2% to 30%). Interestingly, the results
that the next generation of district energy systems will integrate a of Radhi (2009) suggested an increase in heating demand upon the
synergy between centralized and decentralized renewable energy increase of glazing area. Traditionally, with the increase of glazing
systems (Lund et al., 2014). However, from all the studies reviewed, area, solar heat gains also increase, reducing the amount of heating
only one study (Andric et al., 2018) considered renewable energy required in order to reach the indoor comfort temperature. How-
systems as part of the renovation package and evaluated its per- ever, if the majority of heat demand occurs during nighttime, heat
formance under future weather conditions. The results for the demand could increase since the area of glazing, which has a higher
residential building stock considered (St. Fe lix district, located in U-value than the wall (and thus thermal transmittance) is increased
Nantes, France) indicated that under future weather conditions and while the wall area is reduced (thus, the rate of heat exchange
after the application of passive renovation measures (thermal between the outdoor and indoor environment is increased).
insulation þ energy-efficient windows), the annual heat produc-
tion of solar thermal collectors will exceed the annual space heat- 5. The implementation of building renovation measures:
ing and domestic hot water demand (assuming that all the available challenges and considerations
roof space is utilized for the installation of collectors). Nonetheless,
after conducting the analysis on an hourly basis, the authors noted As discussed within the introductory section, in order to achieve
that heat production rate does not always match the heat demand the ambitious energy reduction goals already set for the building
rate. Namely, solar collectors have the highest output during sector in developed countries, hundreds of thousands of buildings
summer months (when only domestic hot water heat demand should be renovated each year. By ratifying the 2010/31/EU
exists), while during the winter, significant heat demand occurs (European Parliament, 2010) and 2012/27/EU (European
during the nighttime when there is no solar radiation available. Parliament, 2012) directives for building energy performance and
Thus, it was noted that in order to optimize energy demand and energy efficiency, respectively, the E.U. became a global leader in
energy production, thermal storages with sufficient seasonal ca- large-scale building renovation projects, requiring that all member
pacities should be installed in such cases. states develop energy codes and renovation plans for their building
The use of energy-efficient appliances in residential buildings stock. However, as indicated in the case study of the U.K., the actual
situated in cold climates could reduce the internal heat load, renovation rate was less than 0.16% of the envisioned rate (less than
increasing the heat demand by þ20% and decreasing the cooling 1000 homes were renovated per year out of the 600,000 planned).
demand by 40% (Tettey et al., 2017), while their use in hot and In order to identify what is hindering the renovation process,
humid climates could decrease total building energy demand by up different aspects of large-scale renovations are discussed within
to 23% (Shibuya and Croxford, 2016). According to the studies by this section.
Nik et al. (2016) and Shibuya and Croxford (2016), changing the As suggested by Mosgaard and Maneschi (2016), extensive en-
indoor comfort set point temperatures (lowering the set point ergy renovations can be observed as a complex innovation process,
temperature during the heating season and increasing the set point defined by Van de ven et al. (2008), but contextualized in the
temperature during the cooling season) could result in significant framework of building renovations (Fig. 3). The first phase of the
energy savings (up to a 23% decrease in heating and cooling de- process is the initiation, whereby the building owner/tenant re-
mand). The application of smart control devices (that can adapt alizes (based on the new regulations, reports from energy efficiency
heating and cooling systems' operation according to the real-time agencies, media, or peers) that a building renovation is a possibility
occupancy and user behavior) was not considered within the and/or necessity. During the development process, the building
studies reviewed. Considering that these technologies are readily
available on the market (such as the Nest smart thermostat), it is
the belief of the authors that they should be included in future
considerations.
4.3. The efficiency of additional renovation measures
Considering thermal mass modification as a renovation mea-

sure, Radhi (2009) found that increasing building thermal mass
could decrease heating and cooling demand by 26.4% and 12.6%,
respectively, which is in accordance with the findings of Van Hooff
et al. (2016) that a reduction in thermal mass resulted in an increase
cooling demand (þ16%). Such behavior was justified (in both
studies) by the fact that an increased wall thickness enables
building mass to store more heat for longer periods of time.
However, the study by Ouedraogo et al. (2012) had a contrasting
conclusion. Although the authors started with the same assump- Fig. 3. Building renovation as innovation process (according to Mosgaard and
tion, the results indicated that enhanced thermal mass caused an Maneschi (2016)).
owner/tenant engages with different actors and stakeholders (en- data collection (Caputo and Pasetti, 2017). While thermal proper-
gineers, architects, consultants, etc.) in order to find and analyze a ties can be assigned based on the building construction period (i.e.,
potential solution for achieving the energy reduction goal set. common construction materials used within that period), collect-
Finally, within the implementation phase, the renovation measure is ing building geometry data presents a challenging task. However,
installed and put into operation. During these three phases, the over the last decade, significant progress has been made with the
building owner usually faces multiple obstacles caused by the as- breakthrough in techniques, such as the use of satellite and LiDAR
pects commonly overseen in policy frameworksdlack of informa- (Light Detection and Ranging) imaging and the use of GIS
tion and a complex relationship between the stakeholders (Geographic Information System) software, as in the studies by
involved, and economic as well as environmental challenges. Caputo and Pasetti (2017), Johansson et al. (2017), Geib et al. (2011),
Gils (2012) and Santos et al. (2014). Yet, the estimation of building
5.1. Policy framework energy consumption based on assumptions and collected data
tends to consistently underestimate current energy consumption
In developed countries, despite over 20 years of building energy levels, potentially overestimating savings achieved by renovation
efficiency legislation, the legislative context has remained weak for measures (Moezzi and Janda, 2014; Sunikka-Blank and Galvin,
the existing building stock (relative to the legislation framework for 2012). Additionally, Moezzi and Janda (2014) suggested that policy
new buildings) (Building performance Institute Europe, 2014). The frameworks assume mechanistic and even unrealistic behavior of
initial obstacle could be the unappropriated downscaling of polices. building owners/tenants in regard to the manner in which they
For example, the report from BPIE (Buildings Performance Institute consume energy, and reasons why they would agree to change that
Europe) (Building performance Institute Europe, 2014) evaluated behavior. This is why energy efficiency policies, implementation
the national renovation policies of ten EU member states, and found roadmaps and enforcement mechanisms should be developed by
that on average, they were less than 60% compliant with the re- relevant stakeholders considering the local context rather than
quirements of the 2010/31/EU directive. The report also found that barrowing even the best practices from somewhere else.
national strategies lacked the required level of ambition, sense of The complexity and opaqueness of relationships between the
urgency, and strategic importance. In one empirical study that actors and stakeholders involved (Fig. 3) also has an influence on
included surveys of five member states (Beillan et al., 2011), the renovation process efficiency. The findings of empirical studies
findings indicated that the main barriers (according to the building (Nair et al., 2017; Palm and Reindl, 2016) that closely followed the
owners) in building renovations were a lack of information on renovation process for several residential buildings in Sweden and
potential measures and efficient savings; high costs; lack of in- conducted a series of interviews with all actors involved found that
centives; and constantly changing, vague policies (Fawcett et al., it is quite difficult to coordinate the actors, increasing the challenge
2011). According to Kvellheim (2017), ambivalent policies are for the close cooperation required in order to incorporate adequate
common to new technological developments, considering that they energy-efficiency measures. After attending multiple meetings
support niche innovation that departs from stable structuredin between actors and stakeholders, Palm and Reindl (2016)
this case, renovation technologies (energy-efficient envelope ma- concluded that there was a lack of a common goal, and that all
terials and renewable energy systems) can be considered as niche participants had individual tasks. Moreover, based on the evalua-
innovation compared to the technologies used for the construction tion of the decision-making process during the building renova-
of the existing building stock. History has shown that ambivalent tions (Kamari et al., 2017), it was found that there was a lack of
policies create insecurity and can misguide the targeted sector, system-thinking, and that new thinking approaches should be
causing delays. Moreover, it is likely that political sectorial re- developed in order to identify and illustrate awareness and prior-
sponsibility contributes to the ambiguity since different ministries ities among the stakeholders involved. Based on an empirical study
operate in different areas, and are usually careful not to interfere conducted during the renovation process of a hotel in Denmark,
with the responsibility of others (Kvellheim, 2017). Mosgaard and Maneschi (2016) concluded that trust between the
Usually, in order to achieve clarity and avoid confusion in the actors involved is of utter importance. However, Abreu et al. (2017)
targeted sector, polices try to incorporate a universal model with a found (based on a series of interviews with house owners in
“one-size-fits-all” approach. In the case of the building sector, Portugal) that due to the high level of trust between the house
incorporating such a model is rather difficult due to the diversity of owners and construction companies/craftsmen, energy consultants
the housing stock (Karvonen, 2013; Palm and Reindl, 2016). Thus, and architects were commonly left out of the renovation process. As
extensive renovations should encompass different technologies a consequence, some buildings might not be renovated to the level
rather than individual ones. Moreover, as discussed in Table 4 and required by the energy codes since the companies/craftsmen
Section 3 of this study, significantly higher energy savings are focused on traditional building technologies. Thus, for an optimal
achieved through a combination of renovation technologies, rather renovation process, close cooperation, trust, and communication
than using a single one. Additionally, the current dominant model between all actors and stakeholders involved is required. Moreover,
of renovation suggests a one-off renovation that immediately rea- it is also important to account for the cultural background, level of
ches the required energy performance. Instead, an alternative knowledge, and daily routines of the house owners/tenants,
model could be used where the renovation is carried out over a considering that these factors influence their choice of renovation
longer period of time (Fawcett et al., 2011). measures (Abreu et al., 2017; Palm and Reindl, 2016). It should also
In order to define an appropriate combination of renovation be mentioned that anticipated challenges such as potential con-
measures for different segments of the building stock, detailed flicts between house owners/tenants and neighbors due to building
knowledge about the stock properties is required (Hrabovszky- alterations, stress, and disruption to everyday activities during the
Horva th et al., 2013; Korytarova, 2010; Novikova, 2008), with the renovation process should be taken into account (Jakob, 2010; Nair
most relevant being building geometry and envelope thermal et al., 2017; Weiss et al., 2012). Moreover, co-benefits from reno-
properties. Nonetheless, collecting and aggregating reliable build- vations such as higher comfort levels, improved living conditions,
ing data has proved to be a challenging task for policy makers and and positive health effects should be highlighted to the house
urban developers (Caputo and Pasetti, 2017; Hrabovszky-Horva th owners/tenants in order to facilitate the renovation process (Farsi,
et al., 2013), usually caused by a lack of compulsive requirements 2010; Klockner and Nayum, 2016; Organ et al., 2013; Weiss et al.,
and coordination between different scales municipal, national) of 2012; Zundel and Stieb, 2011).
On the other hand, in GCC countries, the thermal performance inhabitants and include paved seating areas, while extensive green
and energy consumption of the building sector were initially roofs consist solely of greenery and are primarily designed in order
neglected by local energy authorities, and as a consequence, a lack to reduce energy use), and found that only extensive green roofs are
of energy-efficiency standards and regulations have dramatically cost-efficient due to lower investment and maintenance costs and
increased energy consumption by the sector over the last decade higher energy savings. On the other hand, the study by Bianchini
(Kharseh and Al-Khawaja, 2016). Currently, there are only a few and Hewage (2012) found through a cost benefit analysis that
studies available within the existing literature that consider the both intensive and extensive green roofs are economically sus-
policy framework aspect of building renovations in GCC countries, tainable (however, it should be noted that the authors considered
but the findings indicate that these countries could face additional significant subsidies). Another study (Claus and Rousseau, 2012)
challenges in implementing and enforcing such measures. Energy also suggested that extensive green roofs are economically feasible
generation in these countries is purely fossil-fuel based, and the only if public subsidies are available. Moreover, Claus and Rousseau
availability of abundant oil reserves and heavily subsidized elec- (2012) noted that without subsidies, the private cost of an extensive
tricity created a lack of environmental awareness and sustainable green roof exceeds the benefits for the investor, even after taking
construction policies (Al-Yami and Prince, 2006; Taleb and into account the prolonged lifetime of the roof after the renovation.
Sharples, 2011). For example, the study by Kharseh and Al- Carter and Keeler (2008) found that extensive green roofs could be
Khawaja (2016) found that in Qatar, the indoor set point comfort more cost-effective than traditional roofs if lower construction
temperature in public and residential buildings is commonly set to material costs, increasing energy prices, and the inclusion of
18 C. However, in recent years, significant efforts have been made additional benefits are taken into consideration (such as storm-
in order to create building energy codes and reduce building energy water protection). In an economic sustainability study by Perini and
consumption. While the current absence of policies presents an Rosasco (2013), both direct and indirect green walls were consid-
urgent need and significant opportunity to reduce building energy ered. In the case of direct green walls, greenery is planted in the
consumption in the future, new policies should take into account base of the wall, and there is no vacant space between foliage and
these obstacles and define strategies in order to overcome them the building wall surface; in the case of indirect green walls, the
successfully (especially in the context of environmental greenery is planted in modular planting boxes fixed to the support
awareness). structure a certain distance from the building wall. The results
indicated that a direct green façade and indirect green façade with a
5.2. Economic aspect support structure made of plastic could be economically sustain-
able due to achieved energy cost savings, low investment and
According to the studies reviewed, one of the major concerns maintenance costs, as well as a long lifetime (50 years). On the
expressed by the building owners/tenants was the predicted cost of other hand, indirect green walls with a steel support structure
renovations (Beillan et al., 2011; Johansson et al., 2017; Kamari proved to be economically unsustainable in all scenarios consid-
et al., 2017). In the case study of Sweden, for example (Johansson ered. As for the economic properties of various combinations of
et al., 2017), the payback period commonly exceeded 10e15 years green roofs (intensive, extensive) and green facades (direct, indi-
due to relatively low energy prices and high labor costs, and such a rect), all combinations proved to be economically sustainable if
time frame is commonly found to be unacceptable by real estate adequate tax incentives are available (Perini and Rosasco, 2016).
investors (Johansson et al., 2017; Lind et al., 2016; Popescu et al., However, the authors of the study noted that the combination of
2012; Schade et al., 2013). However, several studies indicated that intensive green roofs and indirect green walls was on the edge of
passive renovation measures have a low capital investment sustainability.
compared to the potential energy cost savings (Abro, 1994; Jafari
and Haghighi Poshtiri, 2017). On the other hand, a study of reno- 5.3. Environmental aspect
vation measures for a residential building in Singapore conducted
by Sun et al. (2018) indicated that passive renovation measures Generally, it is assumed that building renovations improve
were less cost-effective compared to active renovation measures buildings' environmental performance due to the reduction in en-
(cost effectiveness was expressed as the ratio of annual energy cost ergy use. However, the building renovation process can be
savings and incremental cost). Within the study, the most cost-
efficient measure proved to be the installation of energy-efficient
lighting, followed by the renovation of air-conditioning systems.
As for the passive measures, the authors found that the application
of additional insulation levels, installation of energy-efficient
windows, and the introduction of natural ventilation were not
cost-effectivedthe price of the required renovation measures to
reduce one unit of electricity was found to be too high. However, in
countries with high personal incomes and extreme climates (such
as GCC countries), the investment return period for building ren-
ovations is significantly shorter. For example, in a case study that
evaluated passive renovation measures (additional thermal insu-
lation and the installation of energy-efficient windows) for a resi-
dential building in Qatar (Kharseh and Al-Khawaja, 2016), the
results suggested that based on the prices for the year 2016, the
investment return period for the suggested renovation measures
was between 0.5 and 4 years.
The cost-effectiveness of green roofs and green walls was
addressed in multiple instances. Wong et al. (2003) compared the
economic sustainability of intensive and extensive green roofs
(intensive green roofs are designed as gardens, accessible to Fig. 4. Building environmental performance over its lifecycle (Andric et al., 2017b).
environmentally intensivedit requires additional resources for the that due to the achieved energy savings, the building's overall
fabrication of renovation materials/systems, their transportation, lifecycle impact was reduced by -22e76% (depending on the impact
and recycling/landfilling at the end of a building's lifetime. Thus, in category observed). Additionally, an energy-based analysis of direct
order to assess the environmental performance of renovation and indirect green walls applied on a residential building in Italy
measures, it should be evaluated as to what extent the renovation suggested that the integration of such systems presents a sustain-
process contributes to a building's environmental footprint. This able operation for building retrofitting, and demonstrates that
concept is illustrated in Fig. 4., and was previously developed by the vertical greenery systems have a moderate and even balanced
authors of this study (Andri c et al., 2017b). In the reference case consumption of environmental resources (Pulselli et al., 2014).
(without any renovations considered), during the construction, As for the GCC region, there are not any reported examples and
operation, and recycling/landfilling period (tcs , top , telf ), the build- applications of green roof or green walls, however, a total lack of
ing's environmental footprint is increased due to the materials and roofs in majority of building stocks can be taken as an opportunity
resources used in order to complete these processes (Ecs , to develop, experiment and implement a locally suitable effective
Eop;rf , Eelf ;r; respectably). However, if the renovations are performed roofing system to reduce heat load on buildings and hence reduce
at one point in the building's lifetime, from that point onwards to the cooling demand.
the end of the building's lifetime (top;rn ), the building should have a
lower environmental impact in its operation phase due to the 6. Conclusions
reduced energy consumption Eop;rn . The environmental footprint
would also be slightly increased due to the additional resources While global warming-driven changes of ecosystems could have
invested during the renovation (Ern ) and recycling/landfilling multiple impacts on the built environment (the impact on building
(Eelf ;rn ). If the reduction of the environmental impact caused by structures, building construction, materials, and indoor climate),
achieved energy savings is higher than the increase caused by the building sector presents significant potential for climate change
additional resource investment (Ds ), the building renovation im- mitigation e by reducing building energy consumption, significant
proves building sustainability. Otherwise, renovation measures reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and raw material extraction
would increase the building's environmental impact. can be achieved. However, the relationship between climate
Such an evaluation was conducted through an energy analysis of change and building energy demand is reciprocal: changed climate
a renovation process for a residential building located in Serbia conditions could affect the amount of energy used for heating and
(Andric et al., 2017b). Passive (additional insulation levels, energy- cooling services, and the reduction of energy used for heating and
efficient glazing) and active (installation of solar thermal panels, cooling could significantly contribute to climate change mitigation.
connection to district heating system) technologies were consid- According to the literature, buildings in hot and humid climates are
ered, both as separate and joint measures. The results indicated most sensitive to climate change impacts d cooling demand could
that all the renovation measures considered reduced the building's increase up to þ150% while heating needs could decrease up
overall environmental footprint, with the best results being ach- to 264% (depending on the location and characteristics of the
ieved through a combination of active and passive measures building observed). It should be noted that in these climates,
(additional insulation levels þ energy-efficient glazing þ cooling composes almost 90% of building energy demanddthus,
connection þ solar-powered district heating). Finally, it was total building energy demand could increase significantly (even if
concluded that such building renovation measures improve overall percentage-wise, the increase rate of cooling demand is lower than
building performance, lower the pressure on the local ecosystem, the decrease rate of heat demand).
and improve the efficiency of indigenous resource use (Andri c et al., Such an increase in overall demand and change in ratios be-
2017b). A life-cycle assessment (LCA) study for a residential tween heating and cooling demand would have a significant impact
building in Switzerland (Lasvaux et al., 2015) that considered a on the operation of energy systems. In developing countries with a
combination of passive (thermal insulation) and active (ventilation hot and humid climate (such as GCC countries), the majority of
system) measures found that the building's overall environmental cooling services are provided by decentralized air-conditioning
impact was reduced after the renovations, despite the use of systems. Steep increases in demand would create additional
additional resources during the renovation phase. Another LCA stress on an already overloaded grid, resulting in failures and
study was conducted for the renovation of an educational building blackouts, which are already a frequent reoccurrence (impacting
located in Spain (Sierra-Pe rez et al., 2018), suggesting that the the business and operation of utilities and comfort of the con-
embodied impact of the building can be reduced by up to 70% sumers). Additionally, electricity production in these countries is
through the use of passive renovation measures. solely fossil fuel-based and fossil fuel exports are currently the
Environmental performance evaluations of green walls and pillar of their economydthus, an increase in self-consumption
green roofs is of particular interestdthese renovation measures would increase the national emissions even more and also have a
provide substantial energy savings, but also have higher environ- negative impact on their economy. Shift in demand would also
mental impacts compared to other passive measures since they impact the feasibility of district energy systems, which are widely
require continuous maintenance over their lifetime (especially in considered as a more sustainable option compared to decentralized
the case of indirect green walls). A study that considered building systems. However, if these systems are designed based on current
renovations in a Mediterranean climate (Ottele et al., 2011) through climate conditions, they could become obsolete in the future, being
the application of direct and indirect green walls found that re- overpowered (district heating systems) and underpowered (district
sources invested in the construction of a direct green wall and in- cooling systems). Investing in new production units would increase
direct green wall with planter boxes had a negligible contribution the prices for consumersdand considering that stable prices are
to the building's overall environmental impact. On the other hand, one of the reasons consumers connect to district energy systems,
an indirect green wall based on a stainless steel support structure they could decide to disconnect from these systems, opting for
had a significant environmental impact. The environmental per- other available technologies (such as heat pumps), impacting the
formance of a vertical greening system (direct green wall) was also feasibility of the systems.
considered in a study by Pan and Chu (2016), where a LCA study Building renovation measures are commonly proposed as a
was conducted for the renovation of a residential building located mitigation measure against the increase in building energy con-
in Hong Kong. Based on the study's findings, the authors concluded sumption. Studies that considered the performance of building
renovation measures under future climate conditions found that doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.01.018.

Andric, I., Gomes, N., Pina, A., Ferra ~o, P., Fournier, J., Lacarrie
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Journal of Cleaner Production 211 (2019) 83e102

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Cleaner Production

A review of climate change implications for built environment:

1. Introduction and background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84

5.1. Policy framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96

Abbreviations used E op;rf Reference environmental impact of building

Fig. 1. Climate change and the built environment nexus.

Category A B C D E F G H I J K L M Total Keywords

Waddicor et al. (2016) Italy Turin 2010 2050 16 þ30

Y. Wang et al. (2017) China Jinan 2020 2050 þ30.7

Xiang and Tian (2013) Tianjin 1971e2010 2011e2050 18.1

Ouedraogo et al. (2012) Burkina Faso 2010e2029 2030e2049 * þ56

(according to the Ko €ppen climate classiﬁcation) of Sydney,

Building renovation measures

Passive measures Active measures

Additional insulation Solar panels (PV panels and solar collectors)

Study Country City Horizon Renovation measure Effect [%]

Heating Cooling Total building energy

Nik et al. (2016) Sweden Stockholm 2041 Thermal insulation 7 to 13.9

Tettey et al. (2017) Sweden €xjo

(continued on next page)

Study Country City Horizon Renovation measure Effect [%]

Heating Cooling Total building energy

Solar absorbance 31

Ouedraogo et al. (2012) Burkina 2030 Thermal insulation 8

Guan (2012) Australia Adelaide 2070 Windows-to-wall ratio () 2.46

4.3. The efﬁciency of additional renovation measures

Considering thermal mass modiﬁcation as a renovation mea-

renovation measures under future climate conditions found that doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.01.018.

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