Earthquake and Tsunami Risk Assessment of Buildings in West Sumatra

UNIVERSITAS BUNG HATTA
Earthquake and Tsunami Risk Assessment

of Buildings in West Sumatra
Presented By
Dr. Rini Mulyani, M.Sc. (Eng.)

Head of Civil Engineering Department
Bung Hatta University, Padang
West Sumatra, INDONESIA
© 2019 Bung Hatta University

Percentage of physical damage and economic

losses due to several types of hazards in
Indonesia (BNPB, 2015)
TECTONIC SETTING OF SUMATRA
: Padang city
A : Sunda trench
Cross
Section B : Sunda forearc plate Seismic Gap
C : Sumatra fault
C
B
098 W 12.72' 102 W 51.54'

A -02 N -3.90' 01 N 19.20' B
-50
Depth [km]
-100
-150
-200
-250 B
A C
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Patches with strong inter-seismic coupling
Distance [km] on the Sunda megathrust associated with
large seismic ruptures (Konca et al., 2008)
Seismicity of Sumatra in a cross section perpendicular to and the estimated location of seismic gap
Padang city plotted by ZMAP software developed by
Wiemer (2001)
95°0'0"E 100°0'0"E 105°0'0"E SEISMIC ZONES & SEISMICITY OF SUMATRA
28
27
26
1
9
TsuCatA
10°0'0"N 10°0'0"N
Tsunami Wave Height
22
0.00 - 0.44
0.44 - 3.00
3.00 - 7.00
29 7.00 - 35.00
10 35.00 - 50.90
30
Plate or Fault Boundaries
5°0'0"N 2 5°0'0"N
11
31
12
13
23 14
3
0°0'0" 15 0°0'0"
16
4
17
18
5
19
5°0'0"S 5°0'0"S
6 20
21
Earthquake Events
Magnitude 7
8.5 - 9.1 24
8.0 - 8.5
8
7.0 - 8.0
10°0'0"S 10°0'0"S
6.0 - 7.0
25
Plate Boundaries/Major Faults
Seismic Zones
Sumatra Spatial distribution of tsunamigenic
95°0'0"E 100°0'0"E 105°0'0"E earthquakes in Sumatra
Earthquake zones as well as major earthquakes of

Sumatra (Mw ≥ 6.0)
Earthquake Risk Assessment Framework (ERA Framework)

THE ERA FRAMEWORK
1. Integrate multi-hazards into a seismic

risk assessment framework:
 Carry out probabilistic earthquake
and tsunami hazard assessments
consecutively.
RISK-UE
RADIUS
Earthquake
 Allow direct quantification of risk
Ground
associated with the hazards Motions
ERA FRAMEWORK V 1.0

THE ERA FRAMEWORK
2. Develop a method on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment using a magnitude-

distance relationship obtained from tsunami numerical simulations
Tsunami Hazard
Empirical Method Numerical Method
Assessment
0.05
Recurrence Function f(h)
0.04
Ht (m)
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
0 5 10
Tsunami Run-up (m)

Characteristics of tsunamigenic
earthquakes in Sumatra
ERA FRAMEWORK
VERSION 1.0
Original Version
ERA FRAMEWORK
VERSION 2.0
Extended Version
METHODOLOGY - PSHA
START
Earthquake catalogues
- Soil Parameters
- Geographical Information Generate synthetic Earthquake
- Seismic Zones earthquake Database
- Varying Rates
Recurrence Relationships
Randomised
Select events randomly Earthquake
Catalogue
PGA for each

Calculate PGA
location
Calculate Annual
Earthquake
Probability
Hazard Curve
of Exceedance
Flowchart for the Probabilistic

Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)
END
METHODOLOGY - PTHA
START
Based on Randomized Select Tsunamigenic Tsunami

Earthquake Catalogue A
Earthquakes Catalogue
from the PSHA module
Number of Randomised
Select Event
tsunamis for T Tsunami
Randomly
period (TRec) Catalogue
Tide Gauge Calculate tsunami

Coordinates wave height (Ht)
Is this the No Select Next

last event? Event
Yes
Ht for each Tide

Gauge and
each event
Flowchart for the Calculate Annual

Probability
Tsunami Hazard
Curve
Probabilistic Tsunami of Exceedance
Hazard Analysis
(PTHA)
END
METHODOLOGY - EARTHQUAKE RISK
START
Hazard Curve Select PGA and AFE

(PGA, AFE) associated with the PGA
Determine vulnerability
values for each building Damage
Vulnerability Functions
type that corresponds to values (MDR)
PGA
Building Inventory Calculate damage and Damage and

Database loss for each building type loss database
Calculate total damage

Total damage
and total loss for all
and total loss
building types and all
database
events
Flowchart for the
Earthquake Risk
Assessment END
METHODOLOGY - EARTHQUAKE RISK

ASSESSMENT
 Determine building inventory for the

case study area
Earthquake vulnerability curves for buildings

Building Inventory of Padang City

TYPICAL BUILDING CATEGORIES
IN WEST SUMATRA UNIVERSITAS BUNG HATTA
Unreinforced brick masonry (UBM) Confined Brick Masonry (CBM)
Reinforced concrete frame structures

Steel structures (Steel)
with masonry infill (RCI)
Earthquake vulnerability curves for buildings
4
 Determine building vulnerability curve for

Damage State
2 UBM each building category:

CBM
RCI UBM : Unreinforced brick masonry
1 Steel CBM : Confined brick masonry
RCI : Reinforced concrete frame structures
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 with masonry infill
PGA (g) Steel : Steel structures (Steel)
Tsunami vulnerability curves for buildings

D5
Mean Damage Level
D4
D3
D2 UBM
CBM
D1 RCI & Steel
D0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Ht (m)

DISTRIBUTION OF STRUCTURAL CATEGORIES

WITHIN THE PADANG AREA
Category % UBM % CBM % RCI % Steel

1. Rural residential area (R-1) 17.3 69.0 13.6 0.1
2. Residential area in the city 13.1 52.2 34.6 0.1
(R-2)
3. Residential and commercial 6.7 26.6 66.5 0.2
area at the outskirt of the city
(RC-1)
4. Residential and commercial 1.5 6.1 92.0 0.4
area in the city (RC-2)
5. Residential and industrial 11.6 46.6 27.2 14.6
area (RI)
6. Residential, commercial and 3.0 12.1 80.4 4.5
industrial area (RCI)
Remote Sensing
ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS DUE TO

THE Mw 7.6 PADANG EARTHQUAKE
 Date: 30 September 2009

 Time: 17:16:09 WIB (Local Time)
 Coordinate:
- Latitude: 00.84 S
- Longitude: 99.65 E
 Magnitude: Mw 7,6 Richter Scale
(later revised by BMKG to be Mw 7.9)
 Focal Depth: 71 km
 Location: 57 km South West of Pariaman

ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS DUE TO THE Mw 7.6 PADANG EARTHQUAKE
Location of accelerometer
Earthquake response spectra vs. uniform hazard

Earthquake ground motion
response spectra of Indonesian seismic code
records by BMKG

Table 1. The estimation of mean damage ratio for RCI buildings in Padang
based on the damage data of the Mw 7.6 earthquake
Central Damage Prob. of DS

Damage State
Ratio (CDR) % (PGA 0.26g at
(DS)
HAZUS (1999) Padang city)
None 0 0.606
Light 20 0.173
Moderate 55 0.125
Extensive 80 0.096
MDR = 0.180


Legend
Total Damage
(% of All Buildings)
0-3
4 - 13
14 - 23
24 - 30
31 - 40
41 - 50
51 - 70
71 - 100
0 2.5 5 10
Km
The predicted mean damage ratio

(MDR) for the buildings in Padang due
The predicted PGA of the Mw 7.6 to the Mw 7.6 earthquake based on
earthquake in Padang GESI vulnerability curves

The estimated average loss/m2 for The estimated average risk in the area
Padang City due to the Mw 7.6 due to the Mw 7.6 earthquake
earthquake

UBM : Unreinforced brick masonry ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS DUE TO

CBM : Confined brick masonry
RCI : Reinforced concrete frame
structures with masonry infill
Steel : Steel structures (Steel)
The predicted damage and unit loss for

each type of structure in Padang

RESULTS - PSHA
(a) (b)
Geological Map (A) And Soil Classification (B) Of Padang City

RESULTS - PSHA
Rate of earthquake hazard for Padang
city on bed rock
0.35
0.30
0.25
PGA (g)
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
475
0.00
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Return Period T (Year)
Earthquake hazard curve for Padang

city for 50 years (bed rock)
100
Probability of Exceedance (%)
80
60
40
20
Seismic hazard map at 10% probability of exceedance
10 in 50 years for Padang city (PGA in g): (a). on rock site
0 conditions; (b). on soft soil
0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5
PGA (g)
RESULTS - PTHA
20
18
16
(m)
14
Tsunami Height
12
10
8
6
4 9-9.5
8.5-9
2 8-8.5
e
7.5-8
ng
0 7-7.5
Ra
6.5-7
50 -50
e
0 0
6-6.5
d
0 0
10 -10
0
0 0
15 -15
tu
0 0
20 -20
5.5-6
0 0
25 -25
ni
0 0
30 -30
0 0
35 -35
ag
5-5.5
0- 0
40 -40
0 0
45 -45
50 50
0- 0
M
55 -55
0
Dist
60 60
0- 00
00
an
80 0-8
ce (
10
Km
)
The estimated tsunami height above the base Average tsunami heights for each range of
of structures for Padang city at 10% earthquake magnitudes and distances that
probability of exceedance in 50 years contributes to Padang city

RESULTS – EARTHQUAKE RISK
The estimated pure risk premium (PRP) for the existing building stock in Padang with poor seismic
performance based on GESI (2001) vulnerability curves

RESULTS – EARTHQUAKE RISK
UBM Structure CBM Structure RCI Structure Steel Structure
Legend
Earthquake
PRP (Per mil)
0.1 - 0.5
0.6 - 1.0
1.1 - 2.0
2.1 - 5.0
5.1 - 10
10.1 - 15
15.1 - 20
20.1 - 30
0 2.5 5 10
Km
The estimated pure risk premium (PRP) for seismically designed building stock in Padang based on GESI
(2001) vulnerability curves

RESULTS – INSURANCE RATE ESTIMATION UNIVERSITAS BUNG HATTA
(circular letter of Financial Service Authority

No. 21/SEOJK.05/2015)
Comparison between earthquake insurance rates obtained in this study (existing and
seismically design buildings) and the insurance rates applied by two insurance
companies (MAIPARK and ACA insurance) for Padang city

RESULTS – TSUNAMI RISK
Legend
Tsunami
PRP (Per mil)
0-1
2-3
4-5
6-8
9 - 11
0 2.5 5 10
Km
The estimated pure risk premium (PRP) for the existing building stock in Padang subjected
to tsunami hazard

RESULTS – TSUNAMI RISK
Legend
Tsunami
PRP (Per mil)
0-1
2-3
4-5
6-8
9 - 11
0 2.5 5 10
Km
The estimated tsunami pure risk premium (PRP) for seismically designed structures in Padang
subjected to tsunami hazard

CONCLUSIONS
 The risk model developed in this study is verified against building damage
data obtained from the Mw 7.6 of Padang.
 It is found that the loss estimated by the risk model is about 4.76% lower
than that of the damage statistic. The results are reasonable considering
that the risk model does not take liquefaction into account.
 Earthquake risk assessments are conducted for Padang city for four
building categories. It is found that the existing unreinforced brick masonry
buildings are the most vulnerable, followed with the confined brick
masonry, reinforced concrete structures with masonry infill and steel
structures.
 The great economic loss associated with the Mw 7.6 earthquake in Padang
could have been minimized, if the vulnerable structures in the area were
designed to satisfy the seismic design criteria.

CONCLUSIONS
 The earthquake risk decreases considerably (about 80%), if the buildings
are designed according to modern seismic design standard.
 The earthquake risk model in this study estimates that the building loss
could have been reduced from Rp 21,58 trillion to Rp. 10,35 trillion; thus
lowering the loss by about 50%.
 The earthquake risk obtained in this study is compared with earthquake
risk premium charged by 2 insurance companies in Indonesia. It is
observed that the earthquake insurance tariffs are consistent with the risk
obtained for seismically design structures.
 Building risk associated with tsunami in Padang is lower than that of
earthquake due to infrequent occurrence of tsunamis in the area.

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UNIVERSITAS BUNG HATTA

Earthquake and Tsunami Risk Assessment

Dr. Rini Mulyani, M.Sc. (Eng.)

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

Percentage of physical damage and economic

098 W 12.72' 102 W 51.54'

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Earthquake zones as well as major earthquakes of

Earthquake Risk Assessment Framework (ERA Framework)

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

THE ERA FRAMEWORK

1. Integrate multi-hazards into a seismic

ERA FRAMEWORK V 1.0

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

THE ERA FRAMEWORK

2. Develop a method on probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment using a magnitude-

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

PGA for each

Flowchart for the Probabilistic

Based on Randomized Select Tsunamigenic Tsunami

Tide Gauge Calculate tsunami

Is this the No Select Next

Ht for each Tide

Flowchart for the Calculate Annual

Hazard Curve Select PGA and AFE

Building Inventory Calculate damage and Damage and

Calculate total damage

METHODOLOGY - EARTHQUAKE RISK

 Determine building inventory for the

Earthquake vulnerability curves for buildings

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

Unreinforced brick masonry (UBM) Confined Brick Masonry (CBM)

Reinforced concrete frame structures

 Determine building vulnerability curve for

2 UBM each building category:

Tsunami vulnerability curves for buildings

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

DISTRIBUTION OF STRUCTURAL CATEGORIES

Category % UBM % CBM % RCI % Steel

ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS DUE TO

 Date: 30 September 2009

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

Earthquake response spectra vs. uniform hazard

ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS DUE TO

Central Damage Prob. of DS

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS DUE TO

The predicted mean damage ratio

ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS DUE TO

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

UBM : Unreinforced brick masonry ESTIMATION OF DAMAGED BUILDINGS DUE TO

The predicted damage and unit loss for

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

Geological Map (A) And Soil Classification (B) Of Padang City

Earthquake hazard curve for Padang

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

RESULTS – EARTHQUAKE RISK

© 2019 Bung Hatta University

RESULTS – EARTHQUAKE RISK