Approaches On Reliability Estimation

Approaches on Reliability Estimation
1. Historical Data
Historical data is digital information outlining activity, conditions and trends in a company's
past. It is often archived, and may be held in non-volatile, secondary storage. Historical data can
be useful in helping to predict the future of a company and a market, as when conducting
predictive analyses.
Example:

Part Description Quantity Cyclic General failure Total failure rate Data
Use rate per million per million Source
hours hours
Heavy-duty ball 6 N/A 14.4 86.4 AVCO
bearing
Brake assembly 4 N/A 16.8 67.2 AVCO
Cam 2 1 h-1 0.016 0.032 AVCO
Pneumatic hose 1 N/A 29.28 29.28 AVCO
Fixed 1 N/A 1.464 1.464 NPRD-3
displacement
pump
Manifold 1 N/A 8.80 8.80 AVCO
Guide pin 5 N/A 13.0 65.0 AVCO
Control valve 1 40 h-1 15.20 15.20 AVCO
Total assembly 273.376
failure rate
If the mission time for this assembly is 500 hours, the probability of success would be:
Ps = e(-500 x .000273376) = .872.
This value is probably pessimistic considering that much of the data is from AVCO, however, it
does provide a good starting point. Further, if any single component is extremely critical, it is
strongly recommended that an in depth stress strength analysis is performed on that component.
2. Operational Life Testing
Operational testing is mainly focused on assessing system effectiveness, but it is also used to
assess the reliability of the system as it is initially manufactured. Even though reliability
assessment is a somewhat lower priority than effectiveness, there is strong evidence that
operational testing remains important for discovering reliability problems.
After a defense system has been developed, it is promoted to full-rate production and the field if
it demonstrates in an operational test that it has met the requirements for its key performance
parameters. The environment of operational testing is as close to field deployment as can be
achieved, although the functioning of offensive weapons is simulated, and there are additional
constraints related to safety, environmental, and related concerns.
Example:
Comparison of developmental test and operational test reliability.
NOTES: DT = developmental testing, OT = operational testing. Red bars are systems where DT
concluded reliability MET, but OT concluded NOT MET. Black bars are systems where DT and
OT concluded NOT MET. Green bars are systems where DT and OT concluded MET. Brown
bars are systems where DT concluded NOT MET, but OT concluded MET. The Y axis displays
the log (reliability metric for DT/reliability metric for OT).
3. Burn in Testing
Burn-in is a test in which a system or component is made to run for an extended period of time to
detect problems. Burn-in may be conducted to ensure that a device or system functions properly
before it leaves the manufacturing plant or may be part of a repair or maintenance routine.
Burn-in tests are usually performed on hardware devices and equipment within the
manufacturing facility. They enable the detection of any problems before the device is released
to the open market or for consumers.
The burn-in test can be for an entire system or can be performed at a modular level, individually
on each component. If any component is defective, it is most likely to be detected during the
burn-in test. In electronic devices, a burn-in test usually determines the maximum temperature it
can sustain.
Example:
4. Accelerated Life Testing
It involves the acceleration of failures with the single purpose of quantifying the life
characteristics of the product at normal use conditions. More specifically, accelerated life testing
can be divided into two areas: qualitative accelerated testing and quantitative accelerated life
testing.
In qualitative accelerated testing, the engineer is mostly interested in identifying failures and
failure modes without attempting to make any predictions as to the product's life under normal
use conditions. In quantitative accelerated life testing, the engineer is interested in predicting the
life of the product.
Example:
With semiconductor components, the upper reliability limit is often used, assuming that the
failure distribution is an exponential distribution. This method is specified in JIS C5003 (General
rules for determining the failure rate of electronic components during tests) and uses the
following equation:
Total test time: T (Number of test samples n × Test time t)
r : Number of failures

This is multiplied by a number (coefficient) from Table 1 according to the set confidence level
(degree of data accuracy) and number of failures r.
When r = 0, the failure rate can be obtained using the statistical calculation that was used to
obtain the values in Table 1. In this case:

The coefficient a is 0.92 for a confidence level of 60% and 2.30 for 90%.
Number of Failures Confidence Level Confidence Level

Number of Failures (r)
(r) 60% 90% 60% 90%
1 2.02 3.89 6 1.22 1.76
2 1.55 2.66 7 1.20 1.68
3 1.39 2.23 8 1.18 1.62
4 1.31 2.00 9 1.16 1.58
5 1.26 1.85 10 1.15 1.54
The following describes how to calculate the failure rate based on a specific example.
Assume that 100 semiconductor devices are subjected to high-temperature testing (Ta = 125°C, at
rated operating voltage) for 2,000h with zero faults.
To find the failure rate, first calculate the acceleration AF (voltage acceleration coefficient AV ×
temperature acceleration coefficient AT) to obtain the total component hours.
The voltage acceleration coefficient AV can be obtained from the failure rates for actual applied
voltage and test voltage conditions. It is assumed that the actual usage voltage is within the rated
specification.
Given that the actual usage temperature is 50°C and the typical activation energy of the expected
failure mode is 0.8 eV, the temperature acceleration coefficient AT is obtained using the
Arrhenius equation as follows:

Acceleration coefficient AF = Voltage acceleration coefficient AV × Temperature acceleration
coefficient AT
= 1 × 225
= 225
Given the number of samples n and test time tn for sample number n, the total test time
(component hours) is:

Because the number of failures r = 0, given a reliability level of 60%,
Therefore, in this case the estimated failure rate in the field is 20 FIT.
In a similar manner, the failure rate of a device under actual usage conditions can be estimated
from the accelerated test data provided that the major failure modes and failure mechanisms for
the device are understood.

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Number of Failures Confidence Level Confidence Level

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