Fish to 2050 in the ASEAN Region Photo credit: Front cover, Finn Thilsted/WorldFish

Fish to 2050 in the ASEAN Region

Authors
Chin Yee Chan, Nhuong Tran, Danh Chi Dao, Timothy B Sulser, Michael John Phillips, Miroslav Batka, Keith Wiebe
and Nigel Preston

Citation
This publication should be cited as: Chan CY, Tran N, Dao CD, Sulser TB, Phillips MJ, Batka M, Wiebe K and Preston N. 2017.
Fish to 2050 in the ASEAN region. Penang, Malaysia: WorldFish and Washington DC, USA: International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI). Working Paper: 2017-01.

Acknowledgments
This work was undertaken as part of the CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions and Markets (PIM) and
Livestock and Fish (L&F), by a team of scientists from WorldFish and the International Food Policy Research Institute
(IFPRI). Funding support for this study was provided by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, L&F and PIM.

Disclaimer
This working paper has not been peer reviewed. The opinions expressed here belong to the authors, and do
not necessarily reflect those of PIM, IFPRI or CGIAR.

2
Contents
List of tables 4
List of figures 5
List of abbreviations 6
Abstract 7
Introduction 8
Historical trends of fish in the ASEAN region 10
Methods 14
Results 17
Discussion 22
Conclusions 25
References 26
Appendix A. Improvement of model calibration for historical trends 30
Appendix B. Stakeholder consultation workshop 31
Appendix C. Calibration of the projected aquaculture production in the ASEAN region 34
Appendix D. Calibration of the projected capture fisheries production in the ASEAN region 35

3
List of tables
Table 1. ASEAN’s average per capita fish consumption and fish, animal and total protein intake 2011.
Table 2. Sixteen fish production commodity groupings in the IMPACT fish model.
Table 3. Aquaculture and capture fisheries output among ASEAN members and top producer countries
worldwide, 2013.
Table 4. ASEAN’s share of global production in 2015, 2030 and 2050.
Table 5. ASEAN’s projected growth of fish production, trade, consumption and nutrients 2015–2050.

4
List of figures
Figure 1. Global and ASEAN capture fisheries and aquaculture (excluding aquatic plants) production share,
1950–2014.
Figure 2. Contribution of aquaculture (excluding aquatic plants) to ASEAN’s total fish supply in 2000, 2010 and
2014.
Figure 3. Share of major fish species farmed (A) and wild captured (B) of ASEAN’s output in 2014.
Figure 4. ASEAN fish utilization and supply, 1961–2013.
Figure 5. ASEAN net surplus of fish value (A) and tonnage (B), 1976–2013.
Figure 6. Global (A) and ASEAN (B) capture fisheries and aquaculture production (excluding aquatic plants),
1950–2050.
Figure 7. Relative shares of capture fisheries and aquaculture in ASEAN fish production (A) and fish
consumption (B) in 2014, 2030 and 2050.
Figure 8. Projected global fish prices in real terms, 2000–2050.

5
List of abbreviations
AIT Asian Institute of Technology
APFIC Asia-Pacific Fishery Commission
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
CCAFS CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
CTI-CFF Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries and Food Security
FAO Food and Agriculture Organization
FIPS Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics and Information Branch
GDP gross domestic product
GFSF Global Futures and Strategic Foresight
IFPRI International Food Policy Research Institute
IMPACT International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
ISSCAAP International Standard Statistical Classification of Aquatic Animals and Plants
IUU illegal, unreported and unregulated (fishing)
L&F CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish
MSY maximum sustainable yield
NACA Network of Aquaculture Centers in the Asia-Pacific
NGO nongovernmental organization
OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
PEMSEA Partnerships in the Environmental Management for the Seas of East Asia
PIM CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions and Markets
RPOA-IUU Illegal, Unregulated, and Unreported Regional Plan of Action
SEAFDEC Southeast Asian Fisheries Development Center
USDA United States Department of Agriculture

6
Abstract
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has emerged as a global fish producer, owing to the rapid
growth of aquaculture in Southeast Asia and its large offshore fishing fleet. Fish is a regional commodity that
is traded globally, and this region is at the frontline of the global trend toward meeting seafood demand by
2050. Fisheries and aquaculture are increasingly becoming a primary source of protein and micronutrients,
foreign exchange, livelihoods and well-being for the population in the region. Therefore, it is imperative for
ASEAN decision-makers to enhance policies nationally and regionally to maximize the synergies between
socioeconomic development and protecting natural resources and the environment in the region.

Using the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agriculture Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) of the
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), with an updated fish model developed in collaboration with
WorldFish, the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and the
University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, the business-as-usual projection of Fish to 2050 in the ASEAN region was
created taking into account industry-specific biophysical and socioeconomic factors, such as environmental
management and ecosystem carrying capacity plus socioeconomic targets defined by national governments
during a stakeholder consultation workshop at WorldFish in June 2016.

In the ASEAN region, fish production will continue to grow and likely to reach nearly a quarter share of global fish
output in 2030 and then sustain this share to 2050. Aquaculture is expected to supply more than half of the fish
consumed in the ASEAN region in the coming decade. Pangasius and other catfish, carp and tilapia will continue
to be the major species produced from aquaculture. Continued dominance of capture fisheries as a source of fish
supply is projected in the region through to 2050. Higher per capita fish and fish oil consumption will increase
the nutrient intake from fish in the ASEAN region. Regional fish and fishery products will continue to be broadly
traded given the balance of regional supply and demand in the near future. Aquaculture and capture fisheries
have important, complementary roles to play in ensuring that fish remains available and affordable in the region.
Policies to promote sustainable aquaculture expansion and law enforcement in fisheries management are critical
to ensuring sustainable growth of both sectors. WorldFish has made significant updates to the current IMPACT
fish model in producing these ASEAN projection results. Yet continued efforts are needed to address several
limitations of the current model and enhance the robustness of future projections.

7
Introduction
The world’s population is estimated to reach 9.7 billion by 2050 from its current level of 7.3 billion [1], with most
of the increase occurring in developing countries. In a context of climate change, economic uncertainty and
increasing competition for natural resources, feeding this population will be an important challenge. To meet this
demand without significant price increases, it is estimated that food production will need to rise approximately
70–100% from the current production level by 2050 [2, 3]. Currently representing 20% of all animal protein
supply [4, 5], fish will be a prominent future contributor to global food and nutrition security. Global demand
for seafood continues to rise, driven by population growth, higher incomes, urbanization, growing international
fish trade and increasing relative preference for seafood protein [6]. Preliminary estimates for 2015 showed that
global annual per capita fish consumption reached a new record high of more than 20 kg [7].

However, fish production is not homogeneously distributed. In 2014, Asia accounted for 70.8% of global fish
production (88.9% of aquaculture and 56.5% of capture production), excluding aquatic plants. China alone
produced 37.5% and consumed 37.1% of the world’s food fish [8]. South Asia accounted for 9.3% of global fish
supply, with India and Bangladesh as the region’s top producers, while Southeast Asia accounted for 18.3% [8].
Africa, Latin America, Europe and North America accounted for 6.2%, 8.1%, 10% and 4% respectively. Over the
past two decades, most of the growth in global fish production has come from aquaculture [8] as world capture
fisheries have leveled off since the 1990s at about 90 million tons annually (approximately 70 million tons for
food) [7, 9]. The majority of fish production, especially for farmed fish, occurs in developing countries in the south
where competition for natural resources for food production, such as land, water and ecosystem services, is high.

The fish sector provides income, opens up employment opportunities, alleviates poverty and improves food and
nutrition security in developing countries directly through production and indirectly across value chains. FAO [7]
estimated that 56.6 million people globally (36% full time, 23% part time) were engaged in the primary sector of
capture fisheries and aquaculture in 2014. Of this, 84% were based in Asia, followed by 10% in Africa. Although
statistics are in many cases unreliable, particularly for small-scale fisheries, the number of people employed
in capture fisheries appears to have remained steady since 2000, while the proportion of workers engaged in
aquaculture has nearly doubled, from 17% in 1990 to 33% in 2014. Of the 18 million people engaged in fish
farming, 94% were in Asia [7]. Also, three quarters of the countries where fish contributes more than one-third of
animal protein in the diet are from low-income, food-deficit nations [10].

With this uneven distribution of global fish production, international fish trade becomes an important
mechanism to satisfy the rising fish demand worldwide. Fish represents one of the most traded agricultural
products, with an estimate of about 78% of seafood products traded internationally [11]. Global fish trade has
increased rapidly in the past few decades with rising net trade flows from developing to developed countries.
About 10% of agricultural exports are fish products from capture fisheries and aquaculture. The value of the
global fish trade exceeds the value of international trade in all other combined animal source foods [12]. Low-
and medium-income countries play a pivotal role as they supply half of all fish exports by value and two-thirds
by quantity [12]. Fish trade represents an important source of foreign currency earnings for many developing
countries in the south.

Given the dynamic contexts of regional fish production, consumption and trade in the global food system,
multiple issues need to be addressed to sustain fish as a critical future contributor to food and nutrition security
worldwide. This is especially true given the rapid expansion of aquaculture production and the challenges for
managing associated socioeconomic and environmental impacts. There is a strong need for decision-makers
to understand the future trends of fish supply and demand, taking into account complex interactions across
fish commodities and fish producing and consuming countries. To date, several foresight modeling reports,
including the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) agriculture outlook [9] and
Fish to 2030 [13], have provided an overview of future fish supply and demand observed in fish commodities and
countries globally and regionally.

8
Fish is a regional commodity that is shared globally. ASEAN—defined by a 10-member bloc of Brunei, Cambodia,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam—is at the frontline of
the global trend of meeting expanding seafood demand out to 2050. The ASEAN region has a combined gross
domestic product (GDP) of more than USD 2.6 trillion, growing 4.7% per annum, and a population of 632
million in 2015 (8.6% of the world’s population) [14]. Its population is projected to reach 790 million by 2050 [1],
which will require a significant increase in food supply to meet the rising demand. By volume, fish production
is four times that of poultry and 20 times that of cattle in the ASEAN region [5]. Over the past 15 years, ASEAN
fish output has more than doubled. Aquaculture production in the ASEAN region has increased four-fold from
2000 to 2014, showing stunning high growth compared to other regions in the world. The ASEAN region has
transitioned from small-scale capture fisheries, sold domestically or regionally, toward a mix of smaller-scale
and larger-scale export-oriented fisheries. This transition was driven by the enormous increase in aquaculture
production over the past 20 years. In terms of the value of aquaculture production, the 10 ASEAN countries
combined earned around USD 23.8 billion in 2014 [8]. The ASEAN capture fisheries sector has doubled in the
past 25 years. For aquatic plants, overwhelmingly seaweeds, three of the 10 ASEAN members are among the
world’s top 10 producing countries, with Indonesia accounting for more than one-third of world seaweed
output. Combined production of aquatic plants from the ASEAN countries has also increased more than seven-
fold over the past decade [8]. The growth of the ASEAN region’s fish supply for human consumption is more
than twice the population growth, inducing a rise in average per capita fish consumption. Among other regions,
ASEAN’s annual per capita fish consumption in 2013 was the highest in the world at 35.2 kg [8].

The importance of the contribution by fisheries and aquaculture to national economies is well recognized
among ASEAN countries, particularly as a source of foreign exchange earnings, an employment creator and
income generator, as well as in food and nutrition security. The region’s fisheries and aquaculture sectors have
exhibited sustained growth in both production and consumption. Nonetheless, future fish supply and demand
in the ASEAN region also face a number of challenges, especially climate change, which will cause disruptions in
ocean and aquatic ecosystems [15-18]. Other global challenges such as increasing demand for fishmeal and fish
oil and the associated price increases of fish will also become key drivers of change, shaping the future seafood
industry in the region.

This paper presents a baseline (business-as-usual) projection of fish supply, net trade, consumption and nutrition
in the ASEAN region to 2050. It extends the previous work (Fish to 2030 [13] by the World Bank, IFPRI and FAO)
with the effort of updating parameters of the IMPACT model to replicate observed trends of fish supply in ASEAN
countries and other top 10 fish producers in the world. The modeling process was also informed by a stakeholder
workshop organized at WorldFish in Penang, Malaysia, in June 2016. This helped improve the model calibration by
taking into account sector-specific biophysical and socioeconomic factors, such as environmental and ecosystem
carrying capacity and socioeconomic targets defined by national governments in the ASEAN region.

9
Historical trends of fish in the ASEAN region
Production Africa 10.4%. Compared to other regions in the world,
In 2014, the 10 ASEAN countries together accounted the ASEAN countries have shown an exceptional
for 18.3% (30.6 million tons) of world fish production rate of aquaculture growth. At the national level,
(167.3 million tons) (Figure 1) [8]. Indonesia, Vietnam more than half of Vietnam’s fish production came
and Myanmar are among the top 10 fish producing from aquaculture. Nevertheless, not all ASEAN region
countries globally. Excluding aquatic plants, Indonesia contribute to the high growth of the aquaculture
alone accounted for 6.4% of world output and Vietnam sector. Brunei, Laos and Singapore have almost no
3.8% in 2014. Aquatic plant production is as important commercial aquaculture development [8].
as fish output in Indonesia. In 2014, the ASEAN region
supplied 11.9 million tons of aquatic plants (41.8% World capture fisheries production has remained
of world output), with Indonesia alone producing stable at approximately 90–95 million tons per
10.1 million tons of seaweed, almost equal to its total year over the past two decades, albeit with some
fish supply of 10.7 million tons [8]. The Indonesian fluctuations. Nevertheless, capture fisheries in the
government aims to continue this high growth rate in ASEAN region increased their output at 2.8% per
its national policy. annum between 2000 and 2014 (Figure 1). The region’s
contribution to global fishery production has gradually
Over the past 25 years, aquaculture has been the increased from 5% in 1950 to 21.1% in 2014 [8].
fastest-growing food production sector in the world, Indonesia was the second-largest fisheries producer
surpassing rates of increase in terrestrial livestock (6.9% of world capture fisheries tonnage) after China
and dairy production by a wide margin [5, 6, 13]. The in 2014. Indonesia, Myanmar and Vietnam each
ASEAN region is an important aquaculture producer, increased its catch by more than 100 thousand tons in
with its members together producing around 14.7% 2014 compared to 2013 [8]. Despite notable increases
(10.9 million tons) of the world total in 2014. Growth from capture fisheries, the ASEAN region’s share of
in aquaculture production in the region has been aquaculture in total fish production has grown from
dramatic at an annual average of 14% from 2008 17% in 2000 to 35.5% in 2014, which implies that more
to 2013. During the same period, China showed a than one-third of the current total production of food
growth rate of 6% annually, South America 6.9% and fish came from aquaculture (Figure 2) [8].

180
160
140
Million tons

120
100
80
60
40
20

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Rest of the world (Aquaculture) ASEAN (Aquaculture)
Rest of the world (Capture) ASEAN (Capture)

Figure 1. Global and ASEAN capture fisheries and aquaculture

(excluding aquatic plants) production share, 1950–2014.

10
Figure 3A illustrates the share of five main fish species species has steadily increased from 2000 to 2014.
cultured in the ASEAN region by weight: catfish (22%), Catfish value has risen 18-fold since 2000, versus a
tilapia (17%), shrimp (14%), carp (12%) and milkfish 12-fold increase in quantity. Similarly, within the same
(9%) [8, 19, 20]. Catfish output has increased rapidly period, tilapia has shown a 7-fold increment in value.
predominantly because of Vietnam, the top pangasius Notwithstanding this strong growth trend, shrimp
producer in the world. Vietnam’s output has increased in the region demonstrated significant fluctuations
more than 12-fold since 2000 [8], accounting for 45.8% in value because of disease outbreaks. On the other
of regional catfish production in 2014. Farmed shrimp hand, of a diverse set of landings, mollusks, tuna,
constitutes the highest value of all cultured species. mackerel and shrimp accounted for a large portion of
In 2014, shrimp accounted for 31.9% of the total value capture volume (22.9%) in 2014 (Figure 3B) [8].
of all aquaculture output. The value of all farmed

20 40%
35%
15 30%
Million tons

25%
10 20%
15%
5 10%
5%
0 0%
2000 2010 2014
Aquaculture Capture fisheries % of aquaculture production
Figure 2. Contribution of aquaculture (excluding aquatic plants) to ASEAN’s total
fish supply in 2000, 2010 and 2014.

A Other B Other
Mollusks Shrimp
2% 3%
5% 5%
Mackerel
5%

Milkfish
9% Catfish Tuna
22% 6% Other marine
species
Carp Mollusks 30%
12% 7%
Other freshwater
Other
and diadromous demersal fish
Shrimp 19% 11% Other
14% Other pelagic fish
Tilapia freshwater and
diadromous 19%
17%
14%

Total aquaculture output: 10.8 million tons Total capture fisheries output: 19.7 million tons
Figure 3. Share of major fish species farmed (A) and wild captured (B) of ASEAN’s output in 2014.

11
Consumption The ASEAN population relies heavily on fish for food
Food security exists when people have year-round and protein. In 2011, seafood accounted for about 38%
access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets of animal protein in the region’s diet, followed by meat
their dietary needs for an active and healthy life [21]. (33%), milk (20%), eggs (6%) and animal fats and offal
FAO identified poverty as one of the root causes of (3%) [5]. Table 1 depicts average fish consumption and
food insecurity globally [22]. Economically, ASEAN is fish protein intake, as well as the contribution of fish to
comprised of high (Brunei, Singapore), upper middle animal and total protein intake in 2011 [5]. The ASEAN
(Malaysia), lower middle (Thailand, Indonesia, the region exhibited a remarkably high per capita fish
Philippines) and low income countries (Vietnam, consumption of 33.4 kg compared to Asia as a whole
Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar) [23, 24]. An estimated 59.6 (21.3 kg) and the lowest of 10.9 kg in Africa. Per capita
million people in the ASEAN region are chronically fish consumption in the region has more than doubled
undernourished [25]. Furthermore, other factors such over the past four decades and is now 1.8 times higher
as population growth, urbanization, food price volatility, than the world average in 2013 (19.2 kg/person/year).
land acquisition, environmental degradation and climate Overall, the ASEAN region consumes less animal protein
change are potentially aggravating the multidimensional daily per person (24.2 g) than the world average of 31.8
food insecurity threat in the region [26]. g. However, both the proportion of fish in animal protein
intake and in total protein intake is more than double the
Figure 4 shows that about 95% of the fish supply in global average. Fish exceeds half of the animal protein
the ASEAN region was used for human consumption intake in Indonesia and Cambodia. This implies that
[8]. Growth in the region’s supply of fish for human fish plays a disproportionally important role for food
consumption has outpaced population growth in the security and nutrition in this region of low animal protein
past five decades, increasing at an average annual rate consumption, where fish is often a cheaper and more
of 4.6% from 1961 to 2013, more than double the rate accessible animal-source food [27, 28]. Other than protein,
of population growth (2.0%) [8], resulting in increasing the main contribution of fish to food and nutrition
average per capita availability. security is its lipid, micronutrients (fatty acid and vitamins
A, B and D) and minerals (calcium, phosphorus, iodine,
zinc, iron and selenium) [10, 29-32], which are crucial for
combating malnutrition in low-income ASEAN countries.

Fish Utilization Population (x10 millions) and per

(Million tons) capita availability (kg/person)

30 70
25 60

20 50
40
15
30
10
20
5 10
0 0
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Food Non-food uses Population Per capita availability
Figure 4. ASEAN fish utilization and supply, 1961–2013.

12
Trade top five fish exporters in the world in 2014, Vietnam
The fish trade in the ASEAN region has grown became the third biggest exporter (USD 8.0 billion),
dramatically in value, with aggregate exports increasing overtaking Thailand (USD 6.6 billion), which has
from USD 0.5 billion in 1976 to USD 20.8 billion in experienced a substantial decline in exports since 2013.
2013 at an average annual of 11% in nominal terms This is mainly linked to reduced shrimp production
and 7% in real terms [8]. This region was responsible because of disease outbreaks. Thailand exports further
for 15.1% of global fish exports (USD 20.8 billion) and declined in 2015 primarily because of its reduced
5.2% of global fish imports (USD 6.9 billion) in 2013 shrimp production and lower prices of shrimp and
[8]. Improved long-distance refrigeration, transport tuna [7].
infrastructure and faster communications have all
contributed to this vast expansion of trade. Overall, the ASEAN region has become a net fish
exporter. From 1976 to 2011, it showed a gradually
Fish trade generally stimulates regional economic increasing surplus of both value and tonnage (Figure 5),
growth and development. However, due to the and in 2013 it had a surplus of USD 13.9 billion and
Asian financial crisis in 1997, regional exports and 2 million tons in fish seafood trade [8]. Malaysia, the
imports dropped 5.4% and 21.2% respectively in 1998 Philippines, Laos and Singapore are net fish importers
compared with 1997 [8]. A similar trend occurred in this region. However, the seafood trade deficits
during the global economic crisis in 2008 when of these countries were more than offset by large
regional exports and imports decreased by 6.9% and surpluses in Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand
7.9% in 2009 compared with 2008 [8]. Among the and Cambodia.

A. Value surplus B. Tonnage surplus

25 6

20 5
Million tons
Billion USD

4
15
3
10
2
5 1

0 0
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011
Exports Imports
* Net trade represents total exports minus total imports.

Figure 5. ASEAN net surplus of fish value (A) and tonnage (B), 1976–2013.

Countries Population Under- Fish consumption Fish protein Animal protein Fish/animal Fish/total
(million) nourished (%) (kg/person/year) (g/person/year) (g/person/day) protein (%) protein (%)
Cambodia 14.6 17.0 35.5 11.3 17.8 63.4 17.9
Indonesia 244.8 13.5 28.9 9.6 17.4 54.8 35.4
Laos 6.4 22.8 16.6 5.0 13.2 37.6 27.3
Malaysia 28.6 <5.0 58.1 16.8 43.1 39.0 28.0
Myanmar 52.1 20.2 55.3 14.5 34.1 42.6 29.9
Philippines 94.5 13.0 32.7 9.7 25.0 38.7 27.9
Thailand 66.9 9.3 25.0 8.4 24.2 34.7 25.8
Vietnam 87.8 14.5 33.3 8.6 31.8 27.2 21.4
ASEAN 595.7 13.2 33.5 10.1 24.2 41.7 15.2
region
World  7,007.4 12.1 18.9 5.2  31.8  16.4  6.5
* Brunei and Singapore are excluded due to data unavailability [5].

Table 1. ASEAN’s average per capita fish consumption and fish, animal and total protein intake 2011.
13
Methods
The IMPACT model was first used by Delgado et al [33] the livestock and aquaculture sectors compete for
to produce projections of global food fish production, agriculturally produced, plant-based feeds, which are
consumption and trade from 1997 to 2020. This was now major inputs in aquaculture production.
also the first time that fish was included in a major
global agricultural production and trade model. The increasingly important linkages between
Approximately 10 years after the publication of the agricultural and fish sectors, and the increasing role
Fish to 2020 report (2003) by IFPRI and WorldFish [33], of fish farming versus capture fisheries, also provide
a follow-up study was commissioned by the World justification for conducting an analysis of the seafood
Bank in collaboration with the IMPACT modeling team markets using economic modeling tools such as the
at IFPRI, the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of IMPACT model. Aquaculture production can readily
the FAO and the University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff. be modeled as a farming activity, and agriculture and
Incorporating the lessons learned in Fish to 2020, a aquaculture are now linked more closely than ever.
new fish module of the IMPACT model was developed The model differentiates capture and aquaculture
and used to create the Fish to 2030 report in 2013 [13] production of 16 fish commodities (Table 2) and two
covering 2000–2030. Fish to 2030 also incorporated fish products (fishmeal and fish oil) in 115 regions. At the
new developments in global seafood markets and time of writing, the lack of disaggregate data required
the aquaculture sector. Whereas Fish to 2020 used that trade and consumption be modeled at a more
a fish species aggregation model based on market aggregate level of just nine fish commodities. Part of the
characteristics from the consumer perspective, the reason for the lack of reliable data is the rapid growth of
new model used aggregation primarily based on aquaculture species such as tilapia and pangasius, which
production systems, feeding regimes and fish diets. The only became prevalent worldwide relatively recently
disaggregation is aimed at better reflecting the rising and thus lack a sufficient historical dataset. Another
role of fish farming and the resulting closer linkages reason is that the data collection streams for FAO
between fish and agricultural markets. These linkages databases differ between the domains of production,
operate through feed markets, where the livestock and trade and consumption. Even so, the IMPACT model
fish farming sectors compete for marine ingredients used here remains the global agricultural and fish model
that are also used in livestock feed. At the same time, with the highest level of fish commodity detail.

Production fish commodities Description

Shrimp Shrimp and prawns
Crustaceans Aggregate of all other crustaceans
Mollusks Aggregate of mollusks and other invertebrates
Salmon Salmon, trout and other salmonids
Tuna Tuna
Tilapia Tilapia and other cichlids
Pangasius and other catfish Pangasius and other catfish
Carp Major carp and milkfish species
Other carp Silver, bighead and grass carp
Eel and Sturgeon Aggregate of eels and sturgeon
Other freshwater and diadromous Aggregate of other freshwater and diadromous species
Major demersals Major demersal fish
Mullet Mullet
Cobia and swordfish Aggregate of cobia and swordfish
Other pelagics Other pelagic species
Other marine Other marine animals
Source: Fish to 2030 report [13]

Table 2. Sixteen fish production commodity groupings in the IMPACT fish model.
14
IMPACT is a recursive-dynamic model [34] that finds a were identified: Bangladesh, Cambodia and Laos, Chile,
global market equilibrium in each year and continues China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico,
solving sequentially over the projection time horizon. Myanmar, the Philippines, Russia, Scandinavia (Denmark,
The solution for a given period is based on the solution Finland, Norway and Sweden), Singapore, Thailand, the
for the previous period, without foresight, price United States and Vietnam. Overall, these countries
expectations, stock holding or speculation. As such, accounted for 91.6% of global aquaculture production
this type of model is suited for analyzing alternative and 66.8% of global capture fisheries production in 2013
sets of long-term equilibria rather than short-term and are the primary drivers of underlying global trends
market fluctuations. For each commodity market, the with the substantial share of global output (Table 3).
model reaches equilibrium by solving for a single,
market-clearing world price that balances global net From the supply side, fish production data was
trade across all regions. At the country level, the supply compiled by the Statistics and Information Branch,
and demand of each commodity adjust according to Fisheries and Aquaculture Statistics and Information
price movements where the adjustment is regulated Branch (FIPS) of the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture
by commodity-specific price elasticities of supply and Department [8]. The data series available in the
demand, and there can be either a net trade surplus or FishStatJ software [8] include primary production by
deficit, which is to be reconciled on the global market systems (aquaculture and capture), which are highly
through international trade. disaggregated by fish species (over 2000 species
or groups of species). The International Standard
The model begins its projections in 2000 and carries Statistical Classification of Aquatic Animals and Plants
forward to 2050. To introduce dynamics, the IMPACT (ISSCAAP) was used to ensure consistency of our fish
model incorporates exogenously specified trends in species groupings of the historical production data
the drivers of change for demand and supply. Key from 2011 to 2013 with those disaggregated in the
exogenous drivers of demand are per capita income Fish to 2030 report [13].
and population growth such that per capita demand,
endogenously regulated by price and income elasticities, After validation of production data from 2011 to 2013,
is scaled each year according to projected income and fish production growth rates of the ASEAN region and
population levels. Exogenous drivers on the supply side top producer countries worldwide from 2010 to 2015
represent productivity and efficiency gains in agricultural were calculated using a compound annual growth
production, essentially shifting the intercepts of the rate based on three-year moving averages and used
supply curves over time. In contrast, supply changes in to update the model assumptions for the 2010–2015
response to price changes are treated endogenously period. To ensure that the projected trajectory
in the model using supply functions, which embed replicated the observed trend between 2000 and 2013,
price elasticities. In this study, exogenous trends are a major effort was made to test, calibrate and review
the only determinants of supply growth in capture the growth rate to sufficiently match global and ASEAN
fisheries production, while the growth of aquaculture trends. Calibration was implemented by sequentially
supply is regulated by both endogenous price responses and manually fine-tuning model parameters, rather
and exogenous trends in production and efficiency than using an algorithm to calibrate all parameters at
surrounding feed and feeding practices [13, 35]. once. In this study, all simulations were initiated in the
base year of 2000. To evaluate the quality of projections,
Data and model update the model results for aquaculture, capture fisheries and
The latest available FAO historical production data total fish outputs, under the business-as-usual scenario,
of fisheries and aquaculture from 2000 to 2013 was were compared against the observed production data
reviewed and disaggregated into fish species groupings for 2000–2013 globally and for the ASEAN region. The
according to the IMPACT fish model used to generate projected growth rates were extended from 2014 to
the Fish to 2030 report. Historical data was then 2050 using fitted logistic functions.
compared with model projections to ensure that model
solutions replicate observed trends for the 2000–2013 The final step in the model update was to adjust
period. This time period effectively serves as a calibration parameter values so that subsequent model projections
tool for the model parameters and a validation tool were sufficiently close to the historical production
for verifying the model’s ability to accurately represent data for the calibration period (2000–2013). The
reality. The current updating effort focuses on ASEAN results showed that the previous Fish to 2030 model
members and the top aquaculture and capture fisheries projections closely followed the global fisheries and
producing countries in 2013. A total of 18 model regions aquaculture statistics from 2000 to 2009. However,

15
because 2009 was the latest year that had historical aquaculture targets, as well as the biological resource
data at the time of writing of the Fish to 2030 report, growth potentials and constraints.
the model projections and the latest historical data
start exhibiting discrepancies from 2010 to 2013. In A stakeholder consultation workshop was conducted
the ASEAN region, aquaculture and capture fisheries in June 2016 in Penang to collect further data and
growth was underestimated from 2000 to 2013. This information as well as expert inputs from individual
provides valid justification for the need to update ASEAN countries. The workshop details are presented
IMPACT model fish parameters by the team of experts in Appendix B. Calibration of the projected aquaculture
at WorldFish, as this type of exercise requires detailed and capture fisheries in eight ASEAN countries to
knowledge of trends and structural changes in the 2050 is illustrated in Appendixes C and D. A revised
region, industry and policy. Appendix A compares the projection was made taking into account the inputs
Fish to 2030 and updated Fish to 2050 projections of and comments from the stakeholder consultation for
global and ASEAN capture and aquaculture production individual countries at the fish species-level, according
with the actual data over the 2000–2013 period. The to national government targets and a country-level
updated parameters were calibrated to minimize the understanding of maximum carrying capacities. For
difference between the projections and the actual data, aquaculture production, almost all countries have
even more so than the previous Fish to 2030 projections, optimistic expectations of higher output until 2050. The
both at the global and ASEAN-regional level. exceptions are Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand, which
remain the same as the original projections (Appendix
After the calibration to historical trends up to 2013, C). Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia expect to
the production growth rates for capture fisheries and increase their capture fisheries production compared
aquaculture were further adjusted by country and to previous model projections, while Vietnam expects
fish commodity based on the observed trends and lower total output. The remaining countries are
extrapolated from 2014 to 2050. These calibration consistent with the original projections (Appendix D).
attempts take into account national fisheries and

Countries Rank Output (thousand tons) Share of world output (%)

Capture Aquaculture Total Capture Aquaculture Total
Bangladesh 9 1,550 1,860 3,410 1.7 2.6 2.1
*Cambodia & Laos 674 198 872 0.7 0.3 0.5
Chile 13 1,771 1,033 2,804 1.9 1.5 1.7
China 1 16,275 43,552 59,827 17.6 62.0 36.7
India 3 4,645 4,550 9,195 5.0 6.5 5.6
Indonesia 2 6,103 3,849 9,952 6.6 5.5 6.1
Japan 8 3,657 609 4,266 3.9 0.9 2.6
Korea 14 1,598 402 2,000 1.7 0.6 1.2
Malaysia 16 1,489 261 1,750 1.6 0.4 1.1
Mexico 15 1,627 169 1,796 1.8 0.2 1.1
Myanmar 6 3,787 929 4,716 4.1 1.3 2.9
Philippines 11 2,335 815 3,150 2.5 1.2 1.9
Russia 7 4,346 155 4,501 4.7 0.2 2.8
Scandinavia 10 2,074 1,248 3,322 2.2 1.8 2.0
Singapore 2 5 7 0.0 0.0 0.0
Thailand 12 1,844 1,057 2,901 2.0 1.5 1.8
United States 4 5,231 441 8,573 5.6 0.6 5.3
Vietnam 5 2,804 3,207 6,011 3.0 4.6 3.7
Total 61,811 64,340 126,151 66.8 91.6 77.5
ASEAN region 19,036 10,322 29,358 20.6 14.7 18.0
World 92,582 70,224 162,806 100.0 100.0 100.0
* Cambodia and Laos are combined into one region in the IMPACT model.
Brunei is included in an aggregate region, but not modeled separately in the IMPACT model due to its small agricultural footprint and a lack of data.
Table 3. Aquaculture and capture fisheries output among ASEAN members and top producer countries
worldwide, 2013.
16
Results
Future trends of fish in the ASEAN region average annual growth rate of 4.2% in the first phase
The business-as-usual scenario in this study is and then slow to 0.5% in the second. The absolute
characterized by a set of model parameters that were growth is projected to be 14.1 million tons from
considered to reflect the past trends that will continue 2015 to 2050, the majority of which will be from
into the future. These trends take into account Indonesia (8.6 million tons) and the Philippines (1.8
knowledge from published sources and regional million tons). On the other hand, capture fisheries
experts, along with feedback from stakeholder production will rise 1.8% annually in the first phase
consultation on national government targets and the and then remain stagnant at 26.8 million tons from
maximum carrying capacity of the sector. They also 2030 onwards. Despite the relatively faster rate of
need to be consistent with the expected changes expansion of aquaculture, capture fisheries will remain
in the future. These projected results should not be the dominant source of fish supply in the ASEAN
considered as forecasts, but rather as a benchmark for region until 2050 when it will approximately equal
exploring plausible future scenarios on how this sector aquaculture production (Figure 6B), whereas the
will evolve until 2050, taking into account assumptions global production of fisheries and aquaculture will be
on the biophysical, socioeconomic and technological approximately equal by 2030 (Figure 6A) due to the
factors influencing future fish production, relative production trends. Nonetheless, the share of
consumption and trade at the global and regional aquaculture output in the region will rise from 36%
level. This paper focuses on the business-as-usual in 2014 to 48% in 2030 and then reach slightly more
scenario analysis. Further analysis on other alternative than half of the total production by 2050 (Figure 7A).
scenarios, such as the impact of climate change on The ASEAN region’s share of total global fish supply is
capture fisheries and aquaculture production, will be estimated to increase from 18.9% in 2015 to 23.8% in
emphasized in a follow-up publication. 2030 (Table 4). Aquaculture will increase to a sizable
share of 22%, while capture fisheries will reach more
than a quarter of the global output in 2030. The share
Business-as-usual projection is expected to drop slightly for aquaculture, but remain
Production the same for capture fisheries in the second phase of
Table 5 lists the key projections for the business- the projection in 2050 (Table 4).
as-usual scenario of fish production, net trade and
consumption in the ASEAN region from 2015 to 2050. Freshwater species, such as pangasius and other
The projections describe plausible future trends for the catfish, carp and tilapia, are expected to remain the
fisheries and aquaculture sectors in the next 35 years. major sources, by tonnage, of aquaculture output.
Overall, slower growth is projected for production, These three commodity groups, combined, are
consumption and net trade from 2030 to 2050 projected to increase in annual growth from 4.3% to
(second phase) compared with that from 2015 to 2030 5.3% in the next 15 years. They represent 62.6% of all
(first phase). aquaculture production in the ASEAN region in 2015
and will continue to increase slightly to 68.9% by 2030
Total fish production in the ASEAN region is likely to and then gradually decline to 66.2% by 2050. However,
expand at about 2.9% annually in the first phase and high value species such as shrimp are estimated
0.2% annually in the second phase, reaching 54.2 to grow in terms of the share of total tonnage of
million tons in 2050. The total output of aquaculture aquaculture production from 14.8% in 2015 to 16.9%
is projected to double from 13.3 million tons in 2015 by 2050. In 2015, Indonesia and Vietnam were the
to 26.7 million tons in 2050. This will occur at an top regional farmed shrimp producers, with a 43.2%

Production Share of global production (%)

2015 2030 2050
Aquaculture 16.4 22.0 19.6
Capture fisheries 20.9 25.8 25.8
Total fish 18.9 23.8 22.3
Table 4. ASEAN’s share of global production in 2015, 2030 and 2050.
17
and 31.7% share of the total regional farmed shrimp Fish consumption in the ASEAN region is projected to
output, respectively. This trend is likely to continue rise from 24.5 million tons in 2015 to 36.9 million tons
through out the entire projection period. in 2030 and then reach 47.1 million tons in 2050, while
per capita fish consumption is expected to increase
Among the diverse set of landings in capture fisheries, from 38.4 kg in 2015 to 51.5 kg in 2030 and then 61.5
tuna is expected to have the highest annual growth kg in 2050. Similar to the production growth trend,
rate (by tonnage) at 5.8% in the first phase. Tuna and per capita fish consumption increases 2.0% annually
shrimp shares of total landings were 6.5% and 4.3% in in the first phase then grows at a slower pace (0.9%) in
2015. The biggest producer of tuna and shrimp from the second phase (Table 5). In spite of the increased
capture fisheries is Indonesia, which will contribute availability of fish for food, the rise of per capita fish
2.5 million tons (81%) of tuna production and 2.2 consumption will not be uniform among ASEAN
million tons (45%) of shrimp output in 2030. However, countries. The Philippines, Myanmar, Cambodia and
the largest share of the fish landings from the “other Laos are at or below the projected average per capita
marine” fish group will experience a reduction in output fish consumption in the region over the simulation
throughout the first phase, declining 0.3% annually. period. Throughout the projection period, the region’s
population is expected to consume about 50 g of fish
Consumption oil per person annually, which is more than double the
According to OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook [9], average world per capita consumption of about 22 g.
capture fisheries for human consumption refer to
capture production that excludes ornamental fish and Estimates of the nutrient composition of consumed
fish destined for the production of fishmeal, fish oil portions of different fish species were obtained by
and other non-food uses. All aquaculture production connecting IMPACT’s modeled fish with the United
is assumed to be destined for human consumption States Department of Agriculture (USDA) food
[9]. Figure 6B depicts that approximately 97% of fish composition databases [36]. Higher per capita fish
in the ASEAN region are projected to be utilized for and fish oil consumption suggests that the potential
human consumption during the simulation period. nutrients from fish consumption available to the
A new milestone was achieved in 2014 when global population are also expected to grow. On a per capita
aquaculture contributed more than half of the fish basis, the increase in protein, energy, lipid, vitamin
supply for human consumption. In the ASEAN region, and mineral intake from fish consumption is expected
this milestone is expected to be met by 2033. Above all, to rise to between 2.3% and 3.6% from 2015 to 2030
aquaculture in the region is expected to further increase and then slightly decline to between 0.6% and 1.4%
its share of the total fish supply for human consumption annually from 2030 to 2050 (Table 5).
to 52% (27.4 million tons) in 2050 (Figure 7B).

A. World B. ASEAN

140 30

120 25

100
20
Million tons
Million tons

80
15
60
10
40

20 5

0 0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Capture (historical data) Capture for human consumption (historical data) Aquaculture (historical data)
Capture (model) Capture for human consumption (model) Aquaculture (model)
Figure 6. Global (A) and ASEAN (B) capture fisheries and aquaculture production (excluding aquatic plants),
1950–2050.

18
Trade and Prices Figure 8 shows the historical (2000–2014) and projected
International net trade of fish in the ASEAN region is (2015–2050) global aquaculture and capture fisheries
expected to expand at 3.7% annually from 2015 to prices in real terms. From 2000 to 2014, the global
2030 and then decline by 5.4% per year from 2030 to aquaculture price grew faster than capture fisheries
2050. In addition, net trade of fish is also estimated (0.9% versus 0.3% per year, respectively) reaching
to rise from 6.3 million tons in 2015 to 11 million tons USD 2059 per ton for aquaculture and USD 1463 per
in 2030 and then to drop to 3.6 million tons in 2050 ton for capture fisheries. Using an estimation by the FAO
(Table 4). All aggregate fish species in the model, Fish Price Index [11], although the real prices of farmed
except salmon and mollusks, are estimated to have fish are higher than wild species, their prices are likely to
surpluses for export throughout the simulation period. increase and may reduce the gap significantly by 2050.
The model projects that the real prices of all fish species
will increase during the projection period.

A. ASEAN fish production

64% 2014 36% 52% 2030 48% 49% 2050 51%

Total volume: 30.5 million tons Total volume: 51.6 million tons Total volume: 54.2 million tons

B. ASEAN fish consumption

63% 2014 37% 50% 2030 50% 48% 2050 52%

Total volume: 29.4 million tons Total volume: 50.0 million tons Total volume: 52.7 million tons
Capture fisheries Aquaculture
Figure 7. Relative shares of capture fisheries and aquaculture in ASEAN fish production (A) and
fish consumption (B) in 2014, 2030 and 2050.

Global Fish Food Prices in Real Terms

2500

2000

1500
USD/tons

1000

500

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Aquaculture (historical data) Capture (historical data)
Aquaculture (model) Capture (model)
Historical data source: OECD [9] and FAO [11]

Figure 8. Projected global fish prices in real terms, 2000–2050.

19
Item Year Average Average
annual annual
growth growth
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (2015– (2030–
2030, %) 2050, %)
thousand tons
Total fish production 33,298.7 41,662.7 46,918.7 50,313.9 51,287.8 52,032.9 52,592.7 53,301.6 2.8 0.3
Aquaculture 13,292.6 18,387.7 22,241.8 24,793.1 25,921.4 26,658.3 27,055.0 27,400.2 4.2 0.5
production
Carp 2,596.6 3,959.1 4,914.1 5,636.8 5,825.0 5,887.4 5,914.8 5,921.5 5.3 0.2
Crustacean 107.5 121.8 127.3 130.6 133.7 136.5 134.0 131.6 1.3 0.0
Major demersals 54.4 67.0 81.0 95.1 109.2 123.6 138.1 152.7 3.8 2.4
Mollusks 480.4 649.2 1,019.2 1,003.0 963.2 986.1 972.4 960.9 5 -0.2
Mullet 10.6 12.4 14.2 16.1 18.3 20.7 23.0 25.5 2.8 2.3
Other carp 84.5 86.6 93.0 96.2 97.2 97.8 98.2 98.5 0.9 0.1
Other freshwater and 1,879.6 2,014.3 2,003.1 2,078.9 2,339.5 2,573.7 2,710.9 2,838.6 0.7 1.6
diadromous
Other marine 386.8 436.6 447.8 435.9 437.1 438.0 408.0 426.7 0.8 -0.1
Pangasius and other 3,320.5 4,780.7 5,564.3 6,272.0 6,517.8 6,564.2 6,556.1 6,533.8 4.3 0.2
catfish
Shrimp 1,962.8 2,659.6 3,360.7 3,851.8 4,133.5 4,343.4 4,508.2 4,634.9 4.6 0.9
Tilapia 2,409.0 3,600.3 4,617.3 5,176.8 5,346.9 5,486.9 5,591.3 5,675.4 5.2 0.5
Capture production 20,481.1 23,956.7 25,626.9 26,757.5 26,770.7 26,791.9 26,751.1 26,767.8 1.8 0.0
Shrimp 890.0 945.3 977.9 1,002.3 1,002.3 1,002.3 1,001.6 1,001.1 0.8 0.0
Crustacean 303.2 365.4 430.0 495.6 495.2 494.9 494.7 494.5 3.3 0.0
Mollusks 1,351.0 1,456.9 1,511.9 1,550.6 1,548.4 1,548.1 1,548.3 1,548.7 0.9 0.0
Major demersals 2,245.1 3,705.9 4,099.4 4,337.8 4,348.7 4,355.5 4,362.9 4,369.4 4.5 0.0
Tuna 1,327.2 2,195.0 2,755.1 3,076.3 3,062.3 3,058.1 3,056.9 3,056.5 5.8 0.0
Cobia and swordfish 17.1 18.1 19.2 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 1.2 0.0
Eel and sturgeon 6.4 7.3 8.3 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.7 2.8 0.1
Tilapia 129.5 144.0 155.8 167.7 169.4 170.9 172.3 173.6 1.7 0.2
Pangasius and other 124.6 163.0 178.4 184.5 183.1 182.7 182.6 182.6 2.6 -0.1
catfish
Carp 24.1 26.8 28.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 1.3 0.0
Mullet 82.0 99.3 106.8 111.0 110.2 109.8 109.6 109.4 2.0 -0.1
Other freshwater and 3,060.1 3,168.6 3,221.7 3,255.7 3,263.4 3,269.2 3,273.7 3,277.1 0.4 0.0
diadromous
Other pelagics 4,652.5 5,534.7 6,116.0 6,555.2 6,555.1 6,554.9 6,533.9 6,534.1 2.3 0.0
Other marine 6,268.1 6,126.5 6,018.1 5,961.7 5,973.3 5,986.1 5,955.3 5,961.5 -0.3 0.0
Shrimp 890.0 945.3 977.9 1,002.3 1,002.3 1,002.3 1,001.6 1,001.1 0.8 0.0
Net Trade 6,348.2 10,173.3 11,463.7 10,982.6 8,341.0 5,793.6 4,426.1 3,648.9 3.7 -5.4
kilogram/person/year
Per capita 38.4 43.1 47.3 51.5 55.5 58.9 60.5 61.5 2.0 0.9
consumption
Nutrients from fish
milligram/person/day
consumption
Protein 198.8 238.8 276.7 316.8 354.8 394.1 411.0 425.8 3.2 1.5
Energy, Kcal 1,403.4 1,679.6 1,942.7 2,221.1 2,485.4 2,758.1 2,874.7 2,976.4 3.1 1.5
Total lipid (fat) 60.4 71.9 82.9 94.7 105.9 117.4 122.3 126.5 3.0 1.5
Lipids  
Saturated fatty acids 13.7 16.2 18.6 21.3 23.8 26.4 27.5 28.5 3.0 1.5
Monosaturated fatty 22.4 26.7 31.0 35.5 39.8 44.3 46.3 48.0 3.1 1.5
acids

20
Item Year Average Average
annual annual
growth growth
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 (2015– (2030–
2030, %) 2050, %)
Polysaturated fatty 15.7 18.7 21.6 24.6 27.5 30.4 31.5 32.6 3.0 1.4
acids
Cholesterol 722.9 871.6 1,014.1 1,163.7 1,305.1 1,450.8 1,514.7 1,570.9 3.2 1.5
Vitamins
Vitamin A 1,509.7 1,850.7 2,186.1 2,546.0 2,898.7 3,264.2 3,437.7 3,591.7 3.5 1.7
Vitamin B6 3.2 3.8 4.5 5.1 5.6 6.2 6.4 6.6 3.2 1.3
Vitamin B12 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 2.3 1.0
Vitamin C 6.1 7.3 8.5 9.7 10.9 12.2 12.7 13.3 3.2 1.6
Vitamin D 2.6 3.2 3.8 4.4 5.1 5.8 6.1 6.4 3.6 1.9
Vitamin E 7.2 8.4 9.5 10.6 11.7 12.8 13.3 13.6 2.6 1.3
Thiamin 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 3.3 1.5
Riboflavin 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.7 1.1
Niacin 59.9 71.0 81.4 92.4 102.6 113.1 117.4 121.0 2.9 1.4
Folate 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.7 1.7
Minerals
Calcium (Ca) 442.0 512.7 579.5 649.7 715.9 783.6 809.2 831.2 2.6 1.2
Iron (Fe) 11.6 13.4 15.1 16.9 18.5 20.2 20.8 21.3 2.5 1.2
Phosphorus (P) 2,572.3 3,108.5 3,622.0 4,165.4 4,686.4 5,224.1 5,463.7 5,674.0 3.3 1.6
Zinc (Zn) 11.6 13.8 15.9 18.1 20.1 22.2 23.1 23.9 3.0 1.4
Magnesium (Mg) 374.2 440.3 502.3 567.5 629.1 692.3 717.6 739.3 2.8 1.3
Potassium (K) 3,577.1 4,297.4 4,973.9 5,685.2 6,355.1 7,046.2 7,338.9 7,593.1 3.1 1.5
Sodium (Na) 1,548.0 1,845.2 2,127.6 2,408.0 2,667.8 2,928.5 3,039.9 3,136.8 3.0 1.3

Table 5. ASEAN’s projected growth of fish production, trade, consumption and nutrients 2015–2050.

21
Discussion
Model projections are results of complex interactions At the global level, capture fisheries are projected
among commodity groups and countries across the to be stagnant at about 103 million tons annually
regions. Under the business-as-usual scenario, several to 2030. Our analysis showed that ASEAN capture
salient findings are projected. Fish production in the fisheries are still growing (3% annually from 1976 to
ASEAN region will likely grow faster than the regional 2014). This is supported by the fact that coastal waters
population growth. Consequently, people in the in the region are among the most productive and
region will benefit from fish food and nutrition via biologically diverse in the world [39, 40], although
increasing per capita fish consumption. In absolute they are significantly at risk from climate change [41].
volume, fish production in the ASEAN region is Capture fisheries are projected to increase 2% annually
projected to grow and reach nearly a quarter share from 2015 but will likely remain stagnant after 2030.
of the global fish output, by tonnage, in 2030 and Several factors influence capture fisheries growth in
will remain at that level until 2050. Per capita fish the region, including expansion of the geographical
consumption in the region will likely have tripled from range of fishing activities and an increase in the overall
1980 to 2030, while regional net trade will continue biomass of the fisheries as a result of overfishing long-
to increase in the first phase of the projection period lived, larger species, benefiting smaller, short-lived
(2015–2030) but will slowdown in the second phase species [39]. Capture fisheries are projected to continue
(2030–2050). It is noted that real prices of wild fish will to be the dominant source of fish supply in the ASEAN
grow slightly faster than farmed fish. region through to 2050. However, there is a critical
role for improved capture fisheries management and
In past trends, ASEAN countries showed an governance to sustain fish supply. Rapid population
exceptionally high growth of 7% in aquaculture growth and surging food demand are creating
production over the previous five decades. This tremendous stress on coastal and inshore fishery
growth was from both extensive and intensive resources in the region [39]. Fish stocks there are under
production systems [37]. The presence of strong threat from over depletion due, in part, to overfishing
institutional networks in the region have also played and overcapacity [39, 42-44]. Weak marine governance,
an important role in supporting the development of socioeconomic uncertainties and ecosystem change
the aquaculture sector. These include the Network can add further uncertainties, which negatively impact
of Aquaculture Centers in the Asia-Pacific (NACA), future trends of ASEAN capture fisheries. In response
the Southeast Asian Fisheries Development Center to the compelling challenges and emerging issues,
(SEAFDEC), the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) existing regional fisheries institutions such as SEAFDEC,
and CGIAR’s WorldFish [38]. In the next four decades, the Coral Triangle Initiative on Coral Reefs, Fisheries
aquaculture production will continue to be one of and Food Security (CTI-CFF), the Illegal, Unregulated,
the fastest-growing animal-based food sectors of the and Unreported Regional Plan of Action (RPOA-IUU),
ASEAN region’s economy with a projected growth the Asia-Pacific Fishery Commission (APFIC) and
rate of 2%. Aquaculture is likely to supply more Partnerships in the Environmental Management for
than half of the fish consumed in the region in the the Seas of East Asia (PEMSEA) are facing significant
coming decade. Pangasius and other catfish, carp workloads to support fisheries management [39].
and tilapia are projected to remain the major sources These efforts need to be strengthened and connected
of aquaculture output. Capital investment is needed to science- and evidence-based policy analyses for
to advance aquaculture technologies to improve improved management.
efficiency gains and reduce production costs that will
increase the competitiveness of farming operations. On the demand side, per capita consumption in
Relative sluggishness from 2030 to 2050 is projected the ASEAN region has doubled from 1980 to 2013
because of several principal constraints: fish farming and will likely triple by 2030. While fish is relatively
in the region reaching near maximum carrying expensive compared to other food commodities,
capacity, limited access to quality freshwater, limited income elasticities of demand for fish are generally
availability of quality fish seeds and feeds, competition high, which indicate that seafood is highly preferred
for land use, fish price volatility, challenges of [13, 45]. As a consequence, rising incomes across the
regional governance and regulation, environmental region induce a notable increase of fish consumption.
degradation and climate change. The trend of migration to urban areas is projected to
increase rapidly in the region by 2050 with the urban

22
population projected to surpass the rural population During the recent global food price spikes, fish prices
by 2020 [1]. Urbanization will contribute to higher grew at a relatively moderate pace to record highs [11,
fish consumption because it offers a bigger and more 54]. They were less volatile than those of cereals, dairy
comprehensive market, offering a wider choice for and oils, and were thus more competitive than meat. In
consumers and incentives for producers to supply a addition, fish prices are not expected to revert to lower
dense population that can no longer grow food of levels from the projections, but will continue to rise as
its own. Consumer food preferences also seem to be a result of population growth, increased demand and
shifting from meat toward fish because of the benefits supply constraints. Although aquaculture will help to
of fish for human nutrition and health, which are well minimize the gap by stabilizing fish supply, the price
documented [46-51]. Compared to most terrestrial of some farmed species tends to be higher than that
meats, fish has a higher protein content, is leaner on an of capture fisheries, which is comprised of a great
edible fresh weight basis, has a higher concentration volume of small, low-value capture species. Farming
of omega-3 fatty acids and is a richer source of most herbivorous fish, such as carps in Myanmar (about
essential minerals and key water soluble and fat soluble the same price as small pelagic fish), and milkfish
vitamins [32, 36]. Projected higher per capita fish and in Indonesia and the Philippines, needs continued
fish oil consumption will lead to increased nutrition emphasis to maintain accessibility to relatively
benefits for the ASEAN region. affordable fish products in the region. Both capture
fisheries and aquaculture have specific susceptibilities
Fish trade will become a more prominent source of to production volatility from stock fluctuations in
foreign exchange earnings for the ASEAN region. fishing and the risk of disease outbreak in aquaculture,
Regional fish and fishery products will continue to but these do not often occur simultaneously. Both
be heavily traded in the future, fueled by higher sectors have highly complementary roles in ensuring
consumption of fish, the removal of regional tariffs that fish becomes available and affordable to poor
and quotas [39], globalization of the food system and consumers in the ASEAN region.
improvement in long distance refrigerated transport
and large-scale shipments. After a slow but gradual While the fish sector’s contribution to regional
economic recovery from the global economy crisis economic growth has been prioritized, the challenges
in 2008, fish exports in the ASEAN region have been of environmental degradation, such as mangrove
revitalized. Currently, Vietnam and Thailand are two depletion, declining water quality and disease
of the top five fish exporters globally. By tonnage, in farmed fish, will provoke tensions between
shrimp, tuna, catfish and various forms of marine fish the efforts for sustainable economic growth and
are important export species [52]. As the region’s ecosystem protection [55, 56]. Furthermore, climate
population continues to grow and incomes catch change, variability and extreme weather events are
up with more developed regions, fish exports may compounding threats to the sustainability of capture
decrease in the second phase of the projections fisheries and aquaculture development in marine,
(2030–2050) to meet the domestic demand. Import brackish and freshwater environments in the region
substitution and the desire to save on foreign [57]. Climate change will have serious consequences
exchange are rationales to motivate ASEAN national for fishers and fish farmers. Governments’ preparedness
governments to support aquaculture expansion. In to mitigate climate change risks and impacts requires
addition, with the development of export-oriented a thorough understanding of the sector’s vulnerability
aquaculture, especially in Indonesia and Vietnam, fish at the local and national levels. Of the 10 countries
surplus in the region will likely be sustained in the worldwide most vulnerable to climate change (in
near future. Even if exports of seafood do taper off terms of the number of people likely to be affected),
in the later decades, as indicated in the projections, four are in the ASEAN region: Vietnam, Cambodia,
the strong scientific and technological base that Thailand and the Philippines [41]. Vietnam is already
spurred the growth of the aquaculture sector might taking action to select a salinity-tolerant catfish strain
offer an opportunity to export technical know-how to mitigate the climate change risks in the aquaculture
and afford investment opportunities for Southeast sector [58]. Aquaculture in the ASEAN region is
Asian companies in other regions in the world. On dominated by small-scale producers. A strong focus
the other hand, due to the pivotal role of aquaculture should be on building general adaptive capacity that
production, unless cost-effective alternatives to supports poor and small-scale aquaculture producers
fishmeal and fish oil can be found [53], ASEAN and value chain actors to make the most of new
countries, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines, will opportunities and cope with the challenges related to
remain net importers of both until 2050. adverse climate change impacts [59].

23
Capture fisheries and aquaculture in the ASEAN region of basic physical balances or by applying simple laws
are important, therefore policies and priorities should of economics (supply equals demand, global exports
be balanced for maximizing sustainable growth equal global imports, etc.). The modeling efforts
and benefits of both sectors. Various stakeholders, expose data inconsistencies that would not become
including governments, private sector, consumers, obvious in narrowly focused analyses. The model
nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and donor also exposes important data gaps and identifies the
agencies, need to foster cooperation to strengthen areas where improved data collection is needed.
strategic partnerships for implementing effective Fisheries and aquaculture are a relatively new realm
management for sustained growth while mitigating of analysis using these types of foresight modeling
potential impacts on biodiversity and natural resources tools, but further refinement will greatly improve
in the region. Policies to promote sustainable and their applicability for policymaking. Examples of the
climate-adaptable aquaculture are crucial and should successful use of partial-equilibrium models for policy
focus on alternatives such as improved feed and analysis can be found in the IMPACT model’s past,
seed production, reduced dependence on imported as well as with other modeling systems (GLOBIOM,
fishmeal and fish oil, increased investment in durable AgLINK-COSIMO, and CAPRI). For future efforts, it
infrastructure, and strategies to adapt and mitigate is important to advance fish foresight modeling to
climate change impacts [19]. On the other hand, position fish into global and regional food systems
governance in the fisheries sector requires greater while paying attention to national and subnational
adherence to, and enforcement of, existing laws to foresight modeling needs. This will help national
combat illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) partners in improving fish sector planning, priority
fishing activities. There is also a need to increase the setting and policy interventions.
understanding of the environmental constraints and
options for the various modeled growth scenarios,
such as in recent research in Indonesia [56, 60].

Modeling work for generating an evidence base for

decision-making is also crucial. While the IMPACT
fish model has been greatly improved so that it
can generate reasonable fish sector projections at
both global and regional levels, the current setup
suffers some limitations in terms of data and model
structure. Available data is inconsistent and the lack
of trade data at the desirable species classification
leads to the inability to analyze bilateral trade flows,
which makes analysis of specific trade policy difficult
without complementary work. Global markets with
homogenized commodities is a necessary simplifying
assumption that might be more contentious in the
seafood market than, for example, in the cereal, meal
or oil markets, where products are commoditized to a
larger degree. On the other hand, the sheer number of
different fish species being caught and farmed requires
some form of simplification to be modeled at all. Other
potential issues to address in the modeling framework
include dealing with climate change and environmental
stresses more explicitly, updating the underlying
database with the latest available data and embedding
the ability to develop new and alternative fisheries
where they might not have previously been considered.

The benefits of the structural modeling approach, such

as with the IMPACT model, are manifold. Larger-scale
modeling work enforces discipline on inconsistent
data, either in the form of requiring the maintenance

24
Conclusions
Both aquaculture and capture fisheries production food nutrition and security and the implications for
in the ASEAN region will continue to grow. Capture environmental sustainability, the focus of regional
fisheries will remain the dominant fish supply by policies should not only be to promote aquaculture
2050, and aquaculture will supply more than half of expansion, but also to strengthen regional fisheries
fish consumed in the coming decade. Recognizing governance and management. Future effort to
the interactions of the growth of both sectors with enhance national data sharing and improve model
the regional socioeconomic development of coastal structure development will provide a better foresight
and rural communities, as well as the contribution to modeling tool for fish sector policy formulations.

Photo credit: Chin Hooi Bing/WorldFish

ASEAN workshop group in Penang.

25
References
1. [UN] United Nations. 2015. Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World
population prospects: The 2015 revision, key findings and advance tables. ESA/P/WP.241. Accessed 28 June
2016. https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2015_Methodology.pdf

2. Godfray HC, Beddington JR, Crute IR, Haddad L, Lawrence D, Muir JF, Pretty J, Robinson S, Thomas SM and
Toulmin C. 2010. Food security: The challenge of feeding 9 billion people. Science 327:812–18.

3. Pretty J, Sutherland WJ, Ashby J, Auburn J, Baulcombe D, Bell M, Bentley J, Bickersteth S, Brown L, Burke J,
et al. 2010. The top 100 questions of importance to the future of global agriculture. International Journal of
Agricultural Sustainability 8:219–36.

4. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization. 2015. Statistical pocketbook: World food and agriculture. Rome:
FAO. Accessed 28 June 2016. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i4691e.pdf

5. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization. 2015. FAOSTAT statistics database. Food balance sheets. Updated
June 2016. http://faostat3.fao.org/home/E

6. Naylor RL. 2016. Oil crops, aquaculture, and the rising role of demand: A fresh perspective on food security.
In press. Global Food Security.

7. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization. 2016. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture 2016:
Contributing to food security and nutrition for all. Rome: FAO. Accessed 28 June 2016. http://www.fao.
org/3/a-i5555e.pdf

8. FishStatJ. 2016. Database and software for fishery statistical analysis. United Nations FAO. Accessed 28 June
2016. http://www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/software/fishstatj/en

9. [OECD/FAO] Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Food and Agriculture
Organization. 2015. OECD-FAO agricultural outlook 2015. Paris: OECD Publishing. Accessed 28 June 2016.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2015-en

10. Kawarazuka N and Béné C. 2011. The potential role of small fish species in improving micronutrient
deficiencies in developing countries: Building evidence. Public Health Nutrition 14:1927–38.

11. Tveterås S, Asche F, Bellemare MF, Smith MD, Guttormsen AG, Lem A, Lien K and Vannucchi S. 2012. Fish is
food: The FAO’s fish price index. PLoS ONE 7: e36731.

12. World Bank. 2011. The global program on fisheries: Strategic vision for fisheries and aquaculture.
Washington, DC: World Bank. Accessed 29 November 2016. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/
en/890791468315322576/The-global-program-on-fisheries-strategic-vision-for-fisheries-and-aquaculture

13. World Bank. 2013. Fish to 2030: Prospect for fisheries and aquaculture. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Accessed 28 June 2016. http://www.fao.org/docrep/019/i3640e/i3640e.pdf

14. ASEAN statistics. Accessed December 2015. http://www.asean.org/resources/category/asean-resources-kit

15. Cheung WWL, Lam VWY, Sarmiento JL, Kearney K, Watson REG, Zeller D and Pauly D. 2010. Large-scale
redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change. Global
Change Biology 16:24–35.

26
16. Heenan A, Pomeroy R, Bell J, Munday PL, Cheung W, Logan C, Brainard R, Yang Amri A, Aliño P, Armada N et
al. 2015. A climate-informed, ecosystem approach to fisheries management. Marine Policy 57:182–92.

17. Keskinen M, Chinvanno S, Kummu M, Nuorteva P, Snidvongs A, Varis O and Västilä K. 2010. Climate change
and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin: Putting adaptation into the context. Journal of Water
and Climate Change 1:103–17.

18. Lassa JA, Lai AYH and Goh T. 2016. Climate extremes: An observation and projection of its impacts on food
production in ASEAN. Natural Hazards 84 (supplement 1):19–33.

19. Hishamunda N, Bueno P and Yap WG. 2009. Analysis of aquaculture development in Southeast Asia: A
policy perspective. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 509, Rome. Accessed 28 June 2016.
http://www.fao.org/docrep/012/i0950e/i0950e00.pdf

20. Hishamunda N, Ridler NB, Bueno P and Yap WG. 2009. Commercial aquaculture in Southeast Asia: Some
policy lessons. Food Policy 34:102–07.

21. World Food Summit. 1996. Rome declaration on world food security. Rome: World Food Summit. Accessed
28 June 2016. www.fao.org/docrep/003/w3613e/w3613e00.htm

22. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization. 2015. The state of food insecurity in the world. Meeting the 2015
international hunger targets: Taking stock of uneven progress. Rome: FAO. Accessed 28 June 2016. http://
www.fao.org/3/a-i4646e.pdf

23. Dans A, Ng N, Varghese C, Tai ES, Firestone R and Bonita R. 2011. The rise of chronic non-communicable
diseases in southeast Asia: Time for action. Lancet 377:680–89.

24. Tahlil T, ed. 2016. Food issues facing new and emerging economics of Southeast Asia. In Caraher M
and Coveney J, eds. Food Poverty and Insecurity: International Food Inequalities. Switzerland: Springer
International Publishing. 19-27.

25. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization. 2015. FAOSTAT statistics database. Food security sheets. Updated
June 2016. http://faostat3.fao.org/download/D/FS/E

26. Silfvast S, ed. 2015. Food security as a driver of regional integration in ASEAN. In Philomena M and Louis B,
eds. Drivers of Integration and Regionalism in Europe and Asia. London and New York: Routledge. 164-177

27. Belton B and Thilsted SH. 2014. Fisheries in transition: Food and nutrition security implications for the
global South. Global Food Security 3:59–66.

28. World Bank. 2006. Aquaculture: Changing the face of the waters: Meeting the promise and challenge
of sustainable aquaculture. Washington, DC. Accessed 28 June 2016. http://documents.worldbank.org/
curated/en/322181468157766884/pdf/416940PAPER0Fa18082137015501PUBLIC1.pdf

29. Béné C, Barange M, Subasinghe R, Pinstrup-Andersen P, Merino G, Hemre GI and Williams M. 2015. Feeding
9 billion by 2050 – Putting fish back on the menu. Food Security 7:261–74.

30. Karapanagiotidis IT, Yakupitiyage A, Little DC, Bell MV and Mente E. 2010. The nutritional value of lipids
in various tropical aquatic animals from rice-fish farming systems in northeast Thailand. Journal of Food
Composition and Analysis 23:1–8.

31. Roos N, Chamnan C, Loeung D, Jakobsen J and Thilsted SH. 2007. Freshwater fish as a dietary source of
vitamin A in Cambodia. Food Chemistry 103:1104–11.

27
32. Tacon AGJ and Metian M. 2013. Fish matters: Importance of aquatic foods in human nutrition and global
food supply. Reviews in Fisheries Science 21:22–38.

33. Delgado CL, Wada N, Rosegrant MW, Meijer S and Ahmed M. 2003. Fish to 2020: Supply and demand in
changing global markets. WorldFish Center Technical Report, 62. Washington, DC: International Food Policy
Research Institute.

34. Rosegrant MW, Paisner MS, Meijer S and Witcover J. 2001. Global food projections to 2020: Emerging trends
and alternative futures. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

35. Kobayashi M, Msangi S, Batka M, Vannuccini S, Dey MM and Anderson, JL. 2015. Fish to 2030: The role and
opportunity for aquaculture. Aquaculture Economics & Management 19:282–300.

36. United States Department of Agriculture. 2016. National nutrient database for standard reference. Accessed
13 July 2016. http://ndb.nal.usda.gov/

37. Edwards P. 2015. Aquaculture environment interactions: Past, present and likely future trends. Aquaculture
447:2–14.

38. Msangi S and Batka M. 2015. The rise of aquaculture: The role of fish in global food security. In Global
Food Policy Report, 12. Accessed 29 November 2016. https://www.ifpri.org/sites/default/files/gfpr/2015/
feature_3087.html

39. Pomeroy R, Parks J, Courtney K and Mattich N. 2016. Improving marine fisheries management in Southeast
Asia: Results of a regional fisheries stakeholder analysis. Marine Policy 65:20–29.

40. Pomeroy R. 2013. Marine fisheries in crisis: Improving fisheries management in Southeast Asia. In Hathaway
R and Mills M, eds. New Security Challenges in Asia. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.

41. Handisyde NT, Ross LG, Badjeck MC and Allison EH. 2006. The effects of climate change on world
aquaculture: A global perspective. Final Technical Report. Stirling, U.K.: Stirling Institute of Aquaculture, 151.
Accessed 29 November 2016. http://www.ecasa.org.uk/Documents/Handisydeetal_000.pdf

42. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization. 2012. The state of world fisheries and aquaculture: Opportunities
and challenges. Rome: FAO. Accessed 28 June 2016. http://www.fao.org/docrep/016/i2727e/i2727e.pdf

43. Pomeroy RS. 2012. Managing overcapacity in small-scale fisheries in Southeast Asia. Marine Policy 36:520–27.

44. Stobutzki IC, Silvestre GT and Garces LR. 2006. Key issues in coastal fisheries in South and Southeast Asia,
outcomes of a regional initiative. Fisheries Research 78:109–18.

45. Byerlee D, Falcon WP and Naylor RL. 2016. The Tropical Oil Crops Revolution: Food, Feed, Fuel, and Forests.
Oxford: Oxford University Press.

46. Smith JD, Hou T, Ludwig DS, Rimm EB, Willett W, Hu FB and Mozaffarian D. 2015. Changes in intake of
protein foods, carbohydrate amount and quality, and long-term weight change: Results from 3 prospective
cohorts. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 101:1216–24.

47. Zhao LG, Sun JW, Yang Y, Ma X, Wang YY and Xiang YB. 2016. Fish consumption and all-cause mortality: A
meta-analysis of cohort studies. European Journal of Clinical Nutrition 70:155–61.

48. Mozaffarian D and Rimm EB. 2006. Fish intake, contaminants, and human health: Evaluating the risks and
the benefits. JAMA 296:1885–99.

28
49. Lim SS, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Danaei G, Shibuya K, Adair-Rohani H et al. 2012. A comparative risk assessment
of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-
2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 380:2224–60.

50. Ezzati M and Riboli E. 2013. Behavioral and dietary risk factors for noncommunicable diseases. New England
Journal of Medicine 369:954–64.

51. Thilsted SH, Thorne-Lyman A, Webb P, Bogard JR, Subasinghe R, Phillips MJ and Allison EH. 2016. Sustaining
healthy diets: The role of capture fisheries and aquaculture for improving nutrition in the post-2015 era.
Food Policy 61:126–31.

52. Marschke M, ed. 2016. Fisheries transition in Southeast Asia. In Natural resource management for
sustainable growth. Singapore: RSIS Centre for NTS Studies. Accessed 29 November 2016. https://www.rsis.
edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/RSIS_Balanced-Growth-content_web.pdf

53. Glencross B, Irvin S, Arnold S, Blyth D, Bourne N and Preston N. 2014. Effective use of microbial biomass
products to facilitate the complete replacement of fishery resources in diets for the black tiger shrimp,
Penaeus monodon. Aquaculture 431:12–19.

54. Troell M, Naylor RL, Metian M, Beveridge M, Tyedmers PH, Folke C, Arrow KJ, Barrett S, Crepin AS, Ehrlich PR
et al. 2014. Does aquaculture add resilience to the global food system? Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, USA 111:13257–63.

55. Bala BK and Hossain MA. 2009. Modeling of food security and ecological footprint of coastal zone of
Bangladesh. Environment, Development and Sustainability 12:511–29.

56. Tran N, Rodriguez UP, Chan CY, Phillips MJ, Mohan CV, Henriksson PJG, Koeshendrajana S, Suri S and Hall S.
2017. Indonesian aquaculture futures: An analysis of fish supply and demand in Indonesia to 2030 and role
of aquaculture using the AsiaFish Model. Marine Policy (accepted).

57. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization. 2016. Climate change and food security: Risks and responses.
Rome: FAO. Accessed June 28 2016. http://www.fao.org/3/a-i5188e.pdf

58. Nguyen AL, Dang VH, Bosma RH, Verreth JA, Leemans R and De Silva SS. 2014. Simulated impacts of climate
change on current farming locations of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the
Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Ambio 43:1059–68.

59. Phillips MJ, Subasinghe R, Tran N, Kassam L and Chan CY. 2016. Aquaculture big numbes. FAO Fisheries and
Aquaculture Technical Paper No 601. Rome: FAO. Accessed 29 November 2016. http://www.fao.org/3/a-
i6317e.pdf

60. Phillips MJ, Henriksson PJG, Tran N, Chan CY, Mohan CV, Rodriguez UP, Suri S, Hall S and Koeshendrajana
S. 2015. Exploring Indonesian aquaculture futures. Penang, Malaysia: WorldFish Program Report 2015-39.
Accessed 28 June 2016. http://pubs.iclarm.net/resource_centre/2015-39.pdf

29
Appendix A. Improvement of model calibration for historical trends
A. World

100

90

80

70

60
Million tons

50

40

30

20

10

0
2000 2004 2008 2012

B. ASEAN

20

18

16

14

12
Million tons

10

0
2000 2004 2008 2012
Data capture Data aquaculture
Projected capture (Fish to 2050) Projected aquaculture (Fish to 2050)
Projected capture (Fish to 2030) Projected aquaculture (Fish to 2030)

30
Appendix B. Stakeholder consultation workshop
To address future challenges, as well as improve priority setting and decision-making, there are increasing
interests in food commodity foresight modeling and projections from policy-oriented researchers and national
policymakers. Understanding the dynamics of fish production, consumption, trade, prices and their implications
on food and nutrition security are critical to support policy and decision-making for ensuring sustained fish
production growth while minimizing unexpected socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Nevertheless,
fish commodities are commonly excluded in agriculture projection models. The IMPACT model is among a few
taking into account fish projection at the disaggregated level. The Fish to 2030 report in 2013 was the effort of
a collaboration between the World Bank, IFPRI, the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of the FAO and the
University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff. This report built on the foundation of the Fish to 2020 report conducted by
IFPRI and WorldFish in 2003. These comprehensive global overview reports highlighted challenges, opportunities
and roles that fisheries and aquaculture will play to meet the increasing global fish demand in the future.

As a research activity of the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the IMPACT fish model was delivered
to the WorldFish foresight modeling team in 2015. This is an interim step for the development of a full fish
module linking to the updated version of IMPACT version 3. An updating effort was completed from the current
dataset and parameters of the IMPACT fish model. The update focused on the ASEAN region and the top 10
aquaculture and capture fisheries producer countries. A stakeholder consultation workshop at WorldFish in June
2016 focused on improving the model calibration from the previous Fish to 2030 report, with respect to industry-
specific biophysical and socioeconomic factors, such as environmental and ecosystem carrying capacity and
socioeconomic targets defined by national governments, among other dimensions in the ASEAN region.

The specific objectives of the stakeholder consultation workshop were to

• validate business-as-usual results of the region’s fish supply and demand to 2050;
• explore maximum potentials/carrying capacity for fisheries and aquaculture among ASEAN countries;
• identify government targets/plans for fisheries and aquaculture in the ASEAN region;
• explore plausible futures of fisheries and aquaculture in the region by suggesting alternative scenarios.

The consultation brought together 20 specialists from 10 different countries (Australia, Bangladesh, Cambodia,
Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar*, Philippines, Thailand, United States and Vietnam) from academia, government
and NGOs representing a diverse range of expertise covering fisheries, aquaculture, trade and economics. The
participants brought diverse experiences to explore the maximum carrying capacity and national government
targets, as well as to the scenario setting and future visioning process.

*Myanmar’s participant was absent during the workshop but attended the scenario meeting to provide input on
4–5 July 2016 in WorldFish, Penang.

31
List of workshop participants
No Name Affiliation Organization country Organization name
1 Benoy Kumar Barman Senior Scientist Bangladesh WorldFish Bangladesh office
2 Olivier Joffre Visiting Scientist Cambodia WorldFish Mekong Office
3 So Nam Fisheries Team Leader Cambodia Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS)
4 Dedi Adhuri Guest Lecturer Indonesia University of Diponegoro
5 Sonny Koeshendrajana Professor Indonesia Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries (MMAF)
6 Zulkafli bin Abd. Rashid Deputy Director Malaysia Department of Fisheries, Malaysia
General of Fisheries
7 Haji Mazuki bin Hashim Director of Aquaculture Malaysia Department of Fisheries, Malaysia
Development Section
8 Zaki bin Haji Mokri Head of Fisheries Data Malaysia Department of Fisheries, Malaysia
Collection
Planning and
Development Division
9 Sallehudin Bin Jamon Research Officer Malaysia Fisheries Research Institute Kampung Acheh
10 Khin Maung Soe Consultant Myanmar WorldFish Myanmar office
11 Len Garces Fisheries Management Philippines USAID Oceans: The Oceans and Fisheries
Specialist Partnership
12 Paul Ramirez Research Fellow Philippines WorldFish Philippines office
13 U-Primo E. Rodriguez Professor Philippines University of The Philippines Los Baños
14 Ayut Nissapa Associate Professor Thailand Prince of Songkla University Hat Yai
15 Pongpat Boonchuwong Advisor Thailand Department of Fisheries, Thailand
16 Cao Le Quyen Deputy Director Vietnam Vietnam Institute of Fisheries Economics and
Planning (VIFEP)
17 Nguyen Thanh Viet Associate Dean Vietnam Vietnam National University
Faculty of
Development
Economics
18 Chu Hoang Long Senior Lecturer Australia Australian National University
19 Chen Oai Li PhD graduate United States University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff
20 Shahnila Islam Research Analyst United States International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Workshop process
WorldFish welcomed the participants in the opening remarks. The project leader facilitated the workshop and
invited all participants to briefly introduce themselves. An overview of the research project, workshop agenda,
objectives and expected output was given. The two-day workshop program was divided into five sessions: (1)
overview of the IMPACT model, (2) present status and future prospects of country fisheries and aquaculture, (3)
group discussion on country fisheries and aquaculture future prospects and maximum output/carrying capacity,
(4) ASEAN alternative fisheries and aquaculture scenarios, and (5) fish foresight modeling alternatives and follow-
up. During the first session, the IMPACT multimarket model and the IMPACT fish model were presented by IFPRI
and WorldFish, respectively. This was followed by WorldFish’s presentation on the updated parameters on the
business-as-usual results of fish supply and demand in the ASEAN region to 2050 using the IMPACT fish model.
In session two, the country teams presented the state of capture fisheries and aquaculture in their countries.
Then in session three, using several specific questions, participants commented on the business-as-usual results/
trajectories by exploring maximum carrying capacity and government targets for fisheries and aquaculture in
their countries. This input allowed for a participatory approach to calibrate the future projection of the IMPACT
fish model by the WorldFish foresight modeling team.

During the second day, in session four on scenario development, WorldFish narrowed down a major topic of
interest that the participants could focus on for the region—climate change impact on both capture fisheries
and aquaculture. The participants worked in three groups to develop narratives to come up with plausible
scenarios for the future of fish. These were later quantified for the model. In addition to the IMPACT fish model, in

32
session five, other foresight models were presented: Firstly, the capture fisheries model to explore the maximum
sustainable yield (MSY), then the AsiaFish model as an alternative country-level model and, lastly, the USFish
model of demand side behaviors that could be adapted for use in other countries.

Workshop agenda
Tuesday June 7, 2016 (Day 1)
8:30 Registration of participants
8:45 Opening remarks and welcome by WorldFish
Session 1
Overview of IMPACT model
9:00 IMPACT model introduction
9:20 IMPACT fish model introduction (Fish to 2030)
10:00–10:20 Coffee break
10:20 IMPACT fish model update and preliminary baseline projection in ASEAN (Fish to 2050)
Session 2
Country fisheries and aquaculture present status and future prospects
11:00 Country presentations – Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia
12:00–1:10 Lunch
1:10 Country presentations – Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam
2:30–3:00 Coffee break
Session 3
Group discussion on country fisheries and aquaculture future prospects & maximum output/
carrying capacity
3:00 Country group discussions
4:00 Country group presentations
4:30 Workshop adjourned for the day

Wednesday June 8, 2016 (Day 2)

Session 4
ASEAN alternative fisheries and aquaculture scenarios
8:30 Scenarios development introduction
9:00 General discussion on scenarios development for ASEAN
10:00–10:20 Coffee break
10:20 Group discussions on selected scenario
11:20 Group presentations on selected scenario
12:00–1:10 Lunch
Session 5
Fish foresight modeling alternatives and follow-up
1:10 Overview of fish foresight modeling approaches
1:30 Alternative fisheries modeling presentation (capture fisheries model, AsiaFish model, USFish model)
2:30–3:00 Coffee break
General discussion on fish foresight modeling ideas (group 1)
3:00
Review of country consumption and trade projection results (group 2)
4:00 Concluding remarks and feedback
4:15 Adjournment

33
Appendix C. Calibration of the projected aquaculture production in the
ASEAN region
A. Cambodia and Laos B. Indonesia
20000

Thousand tons
400
Thousand tons

15000
300
200 10000

100 5000

0 0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

C. Malaysia D. Myanmar
2000

Thousand tons
800
Thousand tons

1500
600
400 1000

200 500

0 0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

E. Philippines F. Thailand
2500
3000
Thousand tons
Thousand tons

2000
2000 1500
1000
1000
500
0 0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

G. Vietnam
8000
Thousand tons

6000

4000

2000

0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Original projection Revised projection Historical data

34
Appendix D. Calibration of the projected capture fisheries production
in the ASEAN region
A. Cambodia and Laos B. Indonesia
1000 15000

Thousand tons
Thousand tons

800
10000
600
400
5000
200
0 0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

C. Malaysia D. Myanmar
2000
5000
Thousand tons
Thousand tons

1500 4000
1000 3000
2000
500
1000
0 0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

E. Philippines F. Thailand
4000
Thousand tons
Thousand tons

4000
3000
3000
2000
2000

1000 1000

0 0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

G. Vietnam

4000
Thousand tons

2000

0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Original projection Revised projection Historical data

35
 Photo credit: Back cover, Mike Lusmore/Duckrabbit
This publication should be cited as: Chan CY, Tran N, Dao CD, Sulser TB, Phillips MJ, Batka M, Wiebe K and Preston N. 2017.
Fish to 2050 in the ASEAN region. Penang, Malaysia: WorldFish and Washington DC, USA: International Food Policy
Research Institute (IFPRI). Working Paper: 2017-01.

© 2017. WorldFish. All rights reserved. This publication may be reproduced without the permission of, but with
acknowledgment to, WorldFish.

100%
www.worldfishcenter.org RECYCLED