Afghanistan

Reconnected
Challenges
and Opportunities
in the Context of
China’s Belt and
Road Initiative
Annie Cowan

The first Central Asia cargo train departs from

Nantong, east China’s Jiangsu Province for
Afghanistan’s Hairatan, marking the start
of freight train service between China and
Afghanistan. After approximatly one year of
operation, the service was discontinued due
to trade obstacles”

eastwest.ngo | t: @EWInstitute | f: EastWestInstitute

 Afghanistan Reconnected:
Challenges and Opportunities
in the Context of China’s
Belt and Road Initiative
The government of Afghanistan, as indicated by President
Ghani, holds both infrastructure and investment as key points
in its development agenda. China’s Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI) presents an ideal opportunity for the government of
Afghanistan to realize its historic potential in cooperation
with China and other countries in the region.

Executive Summary China-Afghan cooperation under the Academy of International Trade and
auspices of China’s BRI represents Economic Cooperation (CAITEC).
The government of Afghanistan, as a welcome and potentially-lucrative Following this and substantial
indicated by President Ghani, holds opportunity for both parties. subsequent consultation with experts,
both infrastructure and investment as However, geographic and physical businessmen and policymakers
key points in its development agenda. connectivity alone cannot ensure from Afghanistan, its neighboring
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) the success of proposed projects. countries, the EU, and the U.S., the
presents an ideal opportunity for the Both countries must take into EastWest Institute has assembled
government of Afghanistan to realize account the region’s political climate an overview of the challenges and
its historic potential in cooperation to address deficiencies in soft and opportunities facing Afghanistan,
with China and other countries in the hard infrastructure, as well as focus China and the wider region as they
region. Repeated state-level visits, on enriching Afghanistan’s human pursue China’s BRI for a cooperative,
summits, and agreements between capital to ensure the development of mutually-beneficial way forward.
Afghan and Chinese representatives, a regional transportation hub in the These conclusions are accompanied
including between Presidents Ashraf heart of Asia. by a series of recommendations
Ghani and Xi Jinping throughout 2017 pertaining to the implementation of
were an important indication of the Upon the conclusion of its five- BRI and other initiatives as well as to
intention to work together towards year “Afghanistan Reconnected the adoption of a coherent regional
this vital goal, yet practical realization Process,” the EastWest Institute economic vision in the face of political,
of this partnership may be a complex held an international symposium in security and development challenges.
task, as persistent security, political Beijing, China in cooperation with
and logistical challenges must be the National Institute of Strategic
faced to ensure the full incorporation Communication at Peking University
of Afghanistan into BRI. (NISC), the Centre for China and
Globalization (CCG) and the Chinese

2 www.eastwest.ngo
 Learn more at: www.eastwest.ngo/pillars/afghanistan-reconnected

A family travel down the

Hajigak pass, one of the two
main routes from Kabul to
Bamyan in Hazarajat.

Introduction from China, Europe, the Middle

East, and Central and South Asia.
At the heart of China’s Belt and Road Historically, says H.E. Janan Mosazai,
Initiative (BRI) is the concept that Ambassador of Afghanistan to China,
greater connectivity leads to greater “Afghanistan connected markets
growth. Inaugurated in 2014, BRI is and facilitated peaceful interaction
China’s 900 billion USD campaign to across ethnic, regional, linguistic, and
physically and economically link itself other lines.” Today, BRI presents an
to diverse markets such as Central At the heart of opportunity for China and the region
Asia, Southwest Asia, Europe and the to help restore Afghanistan’s potential
China’s Belt and to serve as the “beating heart of Asia”
Middle East through maritime and
terrestrial transport corridors. It is, in Road Initiative (BRI) by fostering connectivity, security,
essence, a resurrection of the old Silk is the concept that stability, and growth through an
Road trade routes that once served increase of foreign investment and a
greater connectivity renewal of opportunity for the people
as the heart of the greater Eurasian
economy. leads to greater and economy of Afghanistan.
growth.
Nowhere was more central to the Afghanistan wisely aims to seize
Silk Road than the area that is now on the momentum provided by
Afghanistan. Serving as a crossroads BRI and the development taking
and vital marketplace, Afghanistan place around it to assume a
in the ancient past represented a renewed position as a regional
flourishing confluence of diverse hub of commerce and exchange.
cultures, religions and economic Geographically, the country is ideally-
opportunities for traders and travelers positioned to do this. Still, numerous

www.eastwest.ngo 3
 domestic, bilateral and regional Pakistan creates worries that tensions
challenges—including instability between the neighbors will complicate
and insecurity in Afghanistan, Afghanistan’s practical inclusion,
insufficient transport and industrial with President Ghani in October 2017
infrastructure, prohibitive or expressing reluctance to link up with
unwieldy regulations and policies, CPEC projects as long as Pakistan
combative or exclusionary political prevents its access to India.2 Stalled
and trade dynamics, and a lack of and cancelled negotiations—as well
existing/enforced transit and trade as the de facto discontinuation of the
agreements—must be overcome now-expired Afghanistan-Pakistan
before Afghanistan can fully capitalize Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA),
on the rich opportunities emerging which was supposed to ensure Afghan
as a result of BRI and other regional access to India—represent a significant
initiatives. impediment to regional connectivity.
Existing bilateral and regional trade
Challenges and transit agreements need to be
improved, implemented and adhered
The cornerstone of BRI is, of course, to in order to allow fair access to
By beginning all markets for all parties, for the
infrastructure development to
encourage connectivity. For Afghanistan, domestic collective good of the entire region.
this is a much-needed focus. The infrastructure The Crisis of Implementation: A lack
country has been embroiled in conflict
after conflict since the late 1970s,
development with of implementation and enforcement
causing infrastructure that would a focus on projects of existing trade and transit
agreements is endemic throughout
otherwise have been maintained and close to the border the region and represents a serious
developed over time to have at best
deteriorated or, in a great many worst
with Pakistan, lack of the “soft infrastructure”
cases, been destroyed outright. Afghanistan could necessary to ensure the success
of physical projects. Despite the
more directly plethora of Memorandums of
Possible Complications with CPEC: The
development of the China-Pakistan
benefit from Understanding and other agreements
Economic Corridor (CPEC) presents CPEC and more signed between Afghanistan and its
neighbors, including China, these
an opportunity for Afghanistan to easily access the agreements are frequently left
link up to and directly benefit from
infrastructure projects linking Pakistan
Chinese market. unimplemented or unachievable due
with China. By beginning domestic to practical and political impediments.
infrastructure development with a Momentum gained by the signing
focus on projects close to the border of agreements and MoUs must be
with Pakistan, Afghanistan could acted upon efficiently throughout
more directly benefit from CPEC and the region, with agreements and
more easily access the Chinese market. policies being implemented,
In December 2017, Chinese Foreign standardized, evenly enforced, and
Minister Wang Yi announced China updated or expanded as necessary.
and Pakistan’s openness to discussing
Afghanistan’s potential inclusion in The realization of expressed political
the corridor.1 However, the troubled will and commitment is critical to
relationship between Afghanistan and ensuring the efficient and smooth
transit of goods across the region
1 Ministry of Foreign Affairs
of the People’s Republic of China (26 2 TOLOnews (25 October
December 2017). Wang Yi: To Discuss 2017). Ghani Refuses To Join CPEC
Extending CPEC to Afghanistan in a While Access To India Is Blocked.
Proper Manner. Available at http://www. Available at https://www.tolonews.
fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/ com/afghanistan/ghani-refuses-join-
t1522540.shtml cpec-while-access-india-blocked

4 www.eastwest.ngo
and access to diverse and lucrative for Afghanistan, it is heavily reliant on
international markets. Pakistan as a corridor and gatekeeper
for transit. Political and economic
Pakistani reluctance to allow the transit difficulties between Pakistan and
of goods over land between Afghanistan Afghanistan lead the latter to seek
and India drives both countries to alternative routes to access foreign
pursue alternative routes bypassing markets, forgoing geographically
Pakistan, such as Iran’s India-backed expedient routes through Pakistan to
Chabahar port, which has recently develop new links through Iran and
seen the sixth shipment of Indian Central Asia. To ensure the success
wheat to Afghanistan3, or the nascent of its own initiatives, China should
Afghan-India Air Corridor Program, leverage its economic and political
which has since June 2017 conveyed influence to facilitate a harmonious
1000 tons of fruits and other goods regional trade environment,
prone to spoilage from Kabul to New ensuring its own easy and reliable
Delhi when delayed by impediments access to an Afghanistan with
to land-based transit routes.4 A second normalized economic relations
corridor between Kabul and Mumbai with Pakistan and preventing the
was launched in December 2017.5 Existing bilateral bypassing of markets that are vital
Political tensions continue to spill over to the impact and reach of its CPEC
into punitive economic and trade and regional projects and the larger BRI.
consequences, including Afghanistan’s trade and transit
reciprocal decision to prevent the transit agreements need It can be hoped that the Chinese
of Pakistani trucks through its territory administration of Pakistan’s Gwadar
to Central Asia and other markets.6 It to be improved, port—a keystone of CPEC— could
is in China’s considerable interest implemented, and potentially ease some of these
to facilitate the smooth transit of adhered to in order bureaucratic and political hang-ups
goods to and through Pakistan and that tend to impede economic traffic
Afghanistan. Though BRI represents a to allow fair access between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
renewal of opportunity for connectivity to all markets for Nevertheless, further work to
all parties, for the separate political disputes from
3 Financial Tribune (24 February economic retributions, such as
2018). India’s 6th Wheat Consignment
collective good of border closures and punitive visa
Unloaded at Chabahar. Available at: the entire region. policies, must be continued and
https://financialtribune.com/articles/ increased by both neighbors if an
economy-domestic-economy/82371/ operable transit corridor is to be
india-s-6th-wheat-consignment-unload- used as an incentive for investment
ed-at-chabahar and economic engagement in
4 TOLOnews (9 February 2018). Afghanistan and the region.
India A Better Market For Afghan Fruit:
Officials. Available at https://www.
tolonews.com/business/india-better- Competitive Perceptions: The
market-afghan-fruit-officials development of other regional projects
5 Hindustan Times (27 Decem- alongside BRI, such as the Chabahar
ber 2017). India, Afghanistan launch port, the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, and the
second air corridor linking Kabul and Five Nations Railway Corridor may
Mumbai Available at: https://www. stand to eventually provide Afghanistan
hindustantimes.com/world-news/ with other cheap and efficient road,
india-afghanistan-launch-second-air- maritime and rail-based linkages to
corridor-linking-kabul-and-mumbai/
the Indian, Central Asian, Russian,
story-LF2ABpIZOomPf3VvzqxezN.html
6 TOLOnews (22 October 2017) Turkish and European markets which
Ghani Bans Pakistani Trucks From (at this stage) formally involve neither
Entering Afghanistan. Available at
http://www.tolonews.com/business/
ghani-bans-pakistani-trucks-entering-
afghanistan

www.eastwest.ngo 5
 Afghan military personal unload packages
during the handover ceremony as China
delivers first shipment of military aid to
Afghanistan, at Kabul military airport.

Pakistan, BRI or CPEC-linked projects.7 Though at the surface, the near- at present due largely to bureaucratic
These corridors should be perceived simultaneous developments of and political blockages, will likely always
as potential complements rather than the India-supported Chabahar and flow in substantial volume through
alternatives to BRI. Chinese access China-backed Gwadar ports seem neighboring Pakistan in the absence of
to these routes could be beneficial, to be in direct political and economic punitive economic policies.
and could be facilitated by steady competition, the two can in fact be
access to Afghanistan through regular, used to complement one another for Logistical impediments: However,
standardized and uninterrupted flow the betterment of trade throughout Afghan trade need not flow exclusively
of goods and transit through Pakistan. the entire region. For instance, Gwadar through Pakistan. Just as Gwadar
China should encourage countries can benefit Chabahar by handling offers China increased access to new
in the region to adopt the view spillover cargo, while both cargo and markets, so too can its neighboring
that infrastructure and transit passenger services between the Chabahar port. The potential benefits
projects—including Iran’s Chabahar two ports could enhance economic of direct connection between CPEC
and Pakistan’s Gwadar ports—can interaction between Iran and Pakistan projects and Chabahar could create
be used in a complementary, rather (and by extension China), in addition opportunity and incentive for China and
than competitive or exclusionary to benefitting travelers (such as other partners to invest in infrastructure
fashion. A common regional strategy religious pilgrims) by precluding the and development in Afghanistan. In fact,
for affordable, convenient linkage necessity of travelling by road through in March 2018 Iranian Foreign Minister
to diverse markets—coupled insecure Balochistan. Pakistan’s fears Javad Zarif indicated a willingness
with regional and bilateral transit of losing Afghan and other business to explore Chinese and Pakistani
policies and agreements conducive specifically to the Chabahar port are involvement in Chabahar and the
to functional, unimpeded trade— thus largely unfounded; Chabahar port potential of using Gwadar and Chabahar
stands to benefit all parties. should be viewed as a facilitator for in a complementary manner.8 Currently,
additional opportunity rather than goods imported through Chabahar
as a competitor to Gwadar. Pakistan’s
7 TOLOnews (15 November 8 Financial Tribune (14 March
2017). Five Nations To Sign Lapis
proximity, existing trade ties, and ability 2018). Pakistan Invited to Join Cha-
Lazuli Corridor Agreement. Available at to facilitate trade ties to other markets— bahar Project. Available at https://
http://www.tolonews.com/business/ particularly as CPEC projects continue financialtribune.com/articles/economy-
five-nations-sign-lapis-lazuli-corridor- to develop—ensures that trade from domestic-economy/83569/pakistan-
agreement Afghanistan, though suffering greatly invited-to-join-chabahar-project

6 www.eastwest.ngo
reach Afghanistan via road as railway than a year after its inauguration.10
connections are not yet developed. To The project, though well-intentioned
maximize and incentivize Chabahar’s and heralded with excitement by
use by diverse markets including both sides, was ultimately rendered
China, further railway connections ineffective due to unaddressed regional
between Iran and its neighbors—in “soft infrastructure” deficiencies.
particular Afghanistan—will be In December 2017, talks were held
necessary. Railway connectivity both between President Ghani and President
within Afghanistan and to neighboring Mirzizoyev of Uzbekistan, during which
countries is crucial to the economic plans were announced to extend the
development of Afghanistan and the existing railway connection between the
region as a whole. India’s commitment The construction two countries further within Afghanistan
to help build a railway connection in of further railway and ultimately to Iran, and agreements
Iran between Chabahar and Zahedan were signed addressing bilateral
represents a good start; however,
connections and trade and transit issues regarding
there remains only one realized rail sufficient supporting roads and railways in particular.11 The
link between Afghanistan and Iran, infrastructure implementation of this new project and
the Afghan portion of which is under these agreements will stand to benefit
construction and projected for
between both countries individually as well as
completion in Spring 2018. Afghanistan and Iran, greater Central Asia, and China,
its neighbors in the and should be prioritized in the coming
A railway connection from Afghanistan months of 2018. The construction
to China—called the Sino-Afghan
region to China of further railway connections and
Special Railway Transportation—was should be a priority, sufficient supporting infrastructure
launched in September 2016 with rail and must include between Afghanistan and its
linkage of Afghanistan’s Hairatan to neighbors in the region through
Uzbekistan and thus via Kazakhstan
enforced transit to China should continue to
to China.9 Unfortunately, the project, agreements with all be a priority, and must include
which was established with hopes of countries along the implemented and enforced transit
providing a steady connection through agreements with all countries along
which China could import Afghan routes to ensure the the routes to ensure the smooth
copper, was stalled by lack of a transit smooth passage of passage of goods.
agreement between Afghanistan and goods.
Uzbekistan, meaning that though Security
Chinese goods could and did arrive in
Afghanistan, Afghan goods could not Perhaps the most prominent—
transit through to China and thus trains certainly the most publicized—
returned to China empty-handed. Due barrier to Afghanistan’s economic
to the lack of a transit agreement, as development is its insecure
well as insufficient infrastructure and environment, the result of 40 years
loading capabilities on-site in Hairatan, of prolonged conflict. Inability
the use of the nascent rail connection
to Afghanistan was suspended by the 10 TOLOnews (11 September
Chinese side in summer 2017, less 2017) Railway Route From China Grinds
To A Halt. Available at http://www.
tolonews.com/business/railway-route-
china-grinds-halt
11 Office of the President, Islamic
Republic of Afghanistan (5 December
9 Bloomberg News (11 Septem- 2017). Joint Statement By the Presi-
ber 2016) China Lays New Brick in Silk dent of the Republic of Uzbekistan His
Road With First Afghan Rail Freight. Excellency Shavkat Mirziyoyev and the
Available at https://www.bloomberg. President of the Islamic Republic of
com/news/articles/2016-09-11/china- Afghanistan His Excellency Mohammad
lays-new-brick-in-silk-road-with-first- Ashraf Ghani. Available at https://presi-
afghan-rail-freight dent.gov.af/en/News/056666

www.eastwest.ngo 7
 to guarantee the security of in the country. In March 2018, types of projects in the Afghan
infrastructure and lack of consistent, the Afghan Ministry of Interior market, mitigating some negative
secure access to contested areas deployed significant security forces perceptions. The governments of
severely inhibits investment to protect the construction site for China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan
opportunities and the viability of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- should work together to explore
connectivity projects, leading to fears Pakistan-India (TAPI) Pipeline, a opportunities to create free trade
that many regional corridors may project slated to generate substantial zones and “safe zones” for foreign
seek to bypass Afghanistan entirely. economic returns in the form of and regional business, such as in the
China has indicated that this is not transit duties and job creation for border area between Afghanistan’s
its intention, recognizing that the Afghanistan.13 To expand this to the Badakshan, China’s Xinjiang, and
route through Afghanistan, at the formal designation and training Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
center of the region, represents of a division of Afghan special provinces. Return on investment
the most geographically-expedient forces, similar to Pakistan’s SSD, for those investors and foreign
means of reaching the European specifically to protect foreign businesses willing to operate in these
market and thus seeks to integrate investments and regional projects areas could be substantial, and could
it into BRI. The government of in Afghanistan could help to serve as an example to encourage
China has indicated a commitment draw new investments as well as future ventures.
to pursuing and facilitating a securing existing ones, facilitating
peace process in Afghanistan, economic development as part of a Regional Counterterrorism Strategies:
understanding that economic long-term stabilization strategy. As Up to 20 violent non-state actors—
development and investment in China seeks to further its military including the Taliban, al Qaeda, the
human capital can facilitate security and security ties with Afghanistan Haqqani Network, Islamic State, the
and stabilization. Its strategy in alongside its economic ones, it Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, and
Afghanistan is two-pronged, however, could consider the training and others— are operating in Afghanistan,
as it has in recent years begun to support of such a division as a many of them from surrounding
focus on leveraging its role politically potential area of cooperation states in the region and using the
as a mediator, in particular with that would be to its direct benefit country as an incubator for violent
regards to its relationship with economically. acts abroad. Regional and state actors
Pakistan. must accept that any violent non-
Safe Zones and Free Trade state actor in Afghanistan- regardless
Securing Investment in an Insecure Zones: In light of the current of a particular group’s pledged or de
Environment: China’s active environment—in which foreign facto allegiance represents a threat
involvement in Pakistan—a country investors are discouraged by an to all. States in the region must be
that also suffers from areas of inability to guarantee both the wary of supporting or tolerating
instability—demonstrates that physical and economic safety of specific groups as a counter to fears
cooperation and development in their investments— it is all the of other extremist groups or as a
insecure environments is possible more necessary for Afghanistan means of pursuing their own interests,
when political will is sufficient. to attract and reassure potential and recognize that the lawlessness
Pakistan has prioritized the security partners and investors where created by the prolonged Taliban
of CPEC projects and Chinese possible. While an inability to insurgency is precisely the factor
workers, establishing a Special designate the entire country as a that creates the conditions that allow
Security Division (SSD) in January “safe zone” for investment does other groups to gain footholds and
2017 specifically for the protection place limitations on its potential operate in the country. The idea that
of CPEC projects.12 The SSD aims for growth, the designation of “good terrorists” exist as a counter
to deploy approximately 15,000 certain areas—such as Mazar-i- to “bad” ones prolongs the internal
specially-trained personnel, including Sharif—as official industrial parks strife in Afghanistan and threatens
1,000 retired army officers, to protect could draw cross-border trade and the security and economic outlook
China’s substantial investments demonstrate the viability of certain of the entire region in both the short-
and long-term. Non-regional states
12 The Express Tribune (22 Janu- 13 TOLOnews (14 March 2018). interested in brokering or facilitating
ary 2017). Special Security Division Thousands Of Security Forces Deployed peace efforts—such as the United
established to secure CPEC. Avail- To Ensure TAPI Safety. Available at States, Russia, and China—must
able at https://tribune.com.pk/sto- https://www.tolonews.com/business/ acknowledge the actual dynamics
ry/1303428/special-security-division- thousands-security-forces-deployed- within the region and use their
established-secure-cpec ensure-tapi-safety

8 www.eastwest.ngo
political and economic influence Opportunities
to discourage the manifestation of
this strategy in their regional allies. Despite the challenges the two
Countries in the region—with the countries must overcome in
support of stakeholders such as order to achieve efficient bilateral
China—must develop and act on a connectivity, much can be said for
cohesive, unified counterterrorism China’s investment and interest in
strategy and acknowledge that an Afghanistan, which stands to be
insecure Afghanistan threatens leveraged into a relationship that
the viability and geographic enriches both countries substantially.
expediency of regional transport Afghanistan is a wealthy country in
corridors and large-scale regional terms of natural resources, most
projects. of which have not yet been tapped.
Chinese interest in accessing
Domestic Counterterrorism and extracting these resources is
Strategies: Illegal mining operations well-documented; with sufficient
in Afghanistan must be curtailed infrastructure development,
and brought under government normalized and standardized trade
control. Reports indicate that relations with transit countries, and
groups like the Taliban are profiting The government a mutually-beneficial investment
from the smuggling of illegally- strategy, Chinese attention to
extracted Afghan talc, precious
of Afghanistan
Afghanistan could lead to new
stones, marble, minerals, and other should deregulate momentum and valuable new
resources, with lapis lazuli mines in and streamline cooperation with significant
Badakhshan province potentially incentives for both sides.
out of government control entirely.14
procurement and
These operations enable terrorist approval processes Education and Human Capital:
groups and insurgents to generate to encourage One facet of the Chinese strategy
steady revenue and perpetuate the regarding Afghanistan features
security crisis throughout the country.
investment in
a view of human capital and
The recent U.S. military strategy sectors like mining education as its own particular
to curtail the revenue of insurgent as well as the type of infrastructure, one that can
groups by targeting opium be developed alongside physical
production facilities should also local construction
projects in order to strengthen
focus on reducing illegal extraction of roads and people-to-people connectivity
and smuggling operations of raw infrastructure, while between the two economies and
materials. Afghan security strategy increase Afghanistan’s ability to
should prioritize this as well, and still combatting
take advantage of the opportunities
with the support of international corruption. provided by BRI projects. The
partners increase surveillance and Chinese commitment to foster
targeted operations against illegal the growth of human capital
extraction sites. in Afghanistan in the form of
scholarships, educational exchange
programs and capacity-building,
and professional training programs
demonstrates an investment in the
future of the country that extends
14 TOLOnews (16 March 2018). beyond China’s own immediate
Gemstone Smuggler Says Bada- economic benefit. It is an investment
khshan Mines Out Of Govt Control. in a future trading partner and a
Available at https://www.tolonews. vote for a thriving, interactive, self-
com/index.php/afghanistan/ sustaining and stable market down
gemstone%C2%A0smuggler-says- the line: a long-term, multifaceted
badakhshan-mines-out-%C2%A0govt- strategy that is a diversion from
control

www.eastwest.ngo 9
 previous “plug-and-play” solutions Construction and Use of Local
to combat stagnation in Afghanistan. Infrastructure: In Afghanistan,
China has demonstrated its keen domestic infrastructure such as
willingness to invest in Afghan roads (including a direct link to
educational capacity with a number Pakistan’s China-administered
of projects, including the construction Gwadar port) must continue to be
of substantial facilities at Kabul enhanced to fully take advantage
University.15 Further investment in of regional transport initiatives like
Afghanistan’s people—such as a BRI and connect rural Afghanistan
focus on developing medical and with avenues to export agricultural
educational infrastructure in rural and other goods abroad. Further
areas—can drive Afghanistan’s Business visa exploration of air corridors—such as
human development in such a way policies between the recent link to India—can enhance
as to contribute to an eventual this capability and bypass areas of
viable trading economy. In terms of Afghanistan and blockage or security risk. However,
facilitating education, a special focus China must be the development of air corridors will
should also be paid to building and hinge on sufficient supply of cargo
supporting technical vocational
made significantly planes as well as access to secure
schools to cultivate local talent in less prohibitive airfields and the training of local talent
the form of personnel essential to in order to to man them. In the short term, the
infrastructure development, such as creation of pilot programs using
airfield operators, dam operators and
encourage existing airfields as secure hubs for
construction experts. business and regional or international companies to
cultural exchange. transport Afghan agricultural goods
Increased People-to-People or extractive products could illustrate
Connectivity: With China’s investment
If these policies Afghanistan’s potential to investors
in human capital will come increased were to become and the international community, and
human and cultural exchange. As sufficiently relaxed incentivize further development and
contact increases, encouraged by investment in this area.
China’s initiatives like scholarships,
enough to allow
ease of access must be facilitated to for a passenger Enabling Access to Resources and
ensure maximum impact of Chinese volume that Refining Procurement Procedures:
investment. Business visa policies An unwieldly procurement process
between Afghanistan and China
would ensure the presently hinders both domestic
must be made significantly less profitability of such infrastructure development and
prohibitive in order to encourage a connection, the foreign investment in Afghanistan.
business and cultural exchange. China demonstrates a keen interest
If these policies were to become
establishment of in investing in mining operations
sufficiently relaxed enough to allow for direct commercial in Afghanistan. However, lack of
a passenger volume that would ensure air connections domestic infrastructure and access
the profitability of such a connection, to potential sites, corruption and
the establishment of direct
between Kabul bureaucratic obstacles in Afghanistan
commercial air connections between and Beijing could present issues that often discourage
Kabul and Beijing could then be then be viable. foreign investors. Approval of
viable. The creation of these direct extraction processes can be difficult
flights would substantially enhance the to secure— the present approving
ease of doing business between the two body, the National Procurement
countries and the economic appeal of Authority (NPA), was set up to
both markets to one another. centralize procurement processes
across the government, but in some
15 XinhuaNet (10 October 2017). cases may lack the expertise to
Construction of two China-aided build- effectively and efficiently approve
ings start in Kabul University. Avail- projects in certain sectors. Additional
able at http://news.xinhuanet.com/ approvals required for the extraction
english/2017-10/10/c_136670303.htm

10 www.eastwest.ngo
of lithium, which is considered a Addressing Trade Imbalances and Fraidoun Haji Bari
checks a carpet at
strategic resource, also impede Creating a Viable Afghan Brand: If Xinjiang International
efficient approval processes in the domestic infrastructure is enhanced Grand Bazaar in Urumqi,
mining industry. In addition, unwieldy to allow linkage to regional corridors capital of northwest
and lengthy procurement procedures like BRI, the resulting increased China’s Xinjiang Uygur
Autonomous Region.
impede the local construction of transport connectivity with foreign Fraidoun of Afghanistan
domestic infrastructure such as markets will allow Afghanistan to has run carpet business
roads necessary to access sites and diversify its exports and reduce trade in China for some
11 years by buying
transport extracted materials. The imbalances with its neighbors and goods from his Afghan
Ghani administration’s continued international markets. A substantially hometown and selling
appointment of anti-corruption increased ability to export directly to them in Xinjiang.
ministers and progress made foreign markets will also enhance the
by the NPA may have had the ability of Afghanistan to control its
effect of lessening the need for own brand and image, allowing it to
overzealous or unwieldy regulation benefit fully from its own products. If
in certain ministries.16 Refining and transport corridors are developed,
streamlining procurement and and regulations and trade transit
approval processes to reflect, agreements put in place and
where possible, the progress made enforced, Afghan agricultural
against corruption would assist in products can be exported directly
necessary domestic development to markets such as China and
as well as facilitate and encourage clearly branded as Afghan,
investment in sectors like mining. enhancing the country’s image and
marketability while creating direct
economic benefits for Afghan farmers
and businessmen. Steps toward this
strategy are already being taken, with
16 World Bank (31 October 2017). a team assigned by President Ghani
Afghanistan’s Public Procurement to identify new markets for Afghan
Racks Up Victories Against Corruption.
Available at http://www.worldbank.org/
en/news/feature/2017/10/31/national-
procurement-authority-racks-up-victo-
ries-against-corruption

www.eastwest.ngo 11
 pine nuts,17 which have historically development. Chinese expertise and
been exported to Pakistan, which demonstrated willingness in this
then exports them to China and other field should be viewed as a strong
markets under Pakistani branding.18 potential asset for Afghanistan
Further opportunities to promote and drawn upon to facilitate the
uniquely-Afghan goods abroad development of green energy
could be identified and explored by projects.
engaging the extensive worldwide
network of Afghan diaspora Opportunities for Digital Connectivity:
businesspeople. This could allow Currently, 23 of Afghanistan’s 34
the country to take full advantage China’s interest provinces have access to fiber optic
of increased connectivity, changing in Afghanistan’s networks, with plans underway to
perceptions by building a brand that broaden connectivity and enhance
draws attention to quality or unique
digital connectivity infrastructure including the Afghan
products and creates a demand is well-placed. Fiber Optic Ring. To that end, the
for Afghan goods in diverse and Further government of Afghanistan has
widespread markets. adopted an open access policy for
prioritization data, with the aim to encourage
Encouragement of Green of public and private sector investment in fiber
Development and Green Energy: private-sector optic and broadband infrastructure
Advocates of BRI emphasize the and connect rural areas more
sustainability of the initiative and the
investment in feasibly.19 This represents an
focus on limiting its environmental the development opportunity for China to contribute
impact. A less-developed state like and expansion to the development of infrastructure
Afghanistan, lacking in existing that will benefit its long-term “Digital
infrastructure, has an opportunity to
of Afghanistan’s Silk Road” initiative. Afghanistan
progress in this area by encouraging fiber optic and China’s April 2017 agreement to
healthy, sustainable and affordable infrastructure explore linkage of the two countries’
development projects over traditional fiber-optic networks through the
environmentally-negative ones. will facilitate Wakhan Corridor could improve
Afghanistan has the potential to Afghanistan’s Afghan digital connectivity as well
generate approximately 230,000 long-term plan as generate substantial economic
megawatts of hydropower and returns for Afghanistan.20 The
220,000 megawatts of solar power. to serve as a proposed connection would serve
Prioritizing the generation of major data transit as a conduit for Chinese data and
clean and renewable energy such route, bringing enable Afghanistan to access internet
as hydropower, solar power and services at a more affordable rate.
wind energy could benefit both substantial Moreover, China also committed
Afghanistan and its neighbors, many benefits to to facilitating the enhancement of
of whom—including Pakistan—are internet users Afghanistan’s existing and developing
energy-deficient, as well as fall fiber optic networks. This agreement
in line with BRI’s focus on green domestically, has been followed by the signing of
regionally, and
17 TOLOnews (27 November internationally. 19 Ministry of Communication
2017). Ghani Assigns Team To Find New and Information Technology, Islamic
Markets For Afghan Pine Nuts. Avail- Republic of Afghanistan (28 Septem-
able at http://www.tolonews.com/ ber 2017). The Open Access Policy to
business/ghani-assigns-team-find-new- Fiber Optic Renews and Distribution of
markets-afghan-pine-nuts license to the Private Sector were Ap-
18 Pahjwok Afghan News (30 proved. Available at http://mcit.gov.af/
December 2015) ‘Govt never tried to en/news/69987
find market for chilgoza pine’. Avail- 20 Regional Economic Coop-
able at https://www.pajhwok.com/ eration Conference on Afghanistan
en/2015/12/30/%E2%80%98govt- (RECCA) (26 April 2017). Afghanistan
never-tried-find-market-chilgoza- and China Sign Fiber Optic Agreement.
pine%E2%80%99 Available at http://recca.af/?p=2387

12 www.eastwest.ngo
Memorandums of Understanding transmissions and providing effectively worked around if foreign
between Afghan and Chinese significant economic benefits for investments and integration into
telecommunications companies, Afghanistan and its neighbors as regional transport corridors are
exploration of opportunities with digital connectivity is made more to contribute substantially to the
Chinese companies like Huawei, efficient, reliable and affordable. country’s development, and if its
and further plans to pursue linkage central location is to be leveraged to
with Afghanistan and Central Asia. Conclusion benefit neighbors and international
China’s interest in Afghanistan’s partners.
digital connectivity is well-placed. In the face of numerous decades-long
Further prioritization of public security and development challenges, Nevertheless, Chinese activity in
and private-sector investment in Afghanistan’s current government is neighboring Pakistan illustrates that
the development and expansion doing its utmost to lay out a detailed, cooperation and development in
of Afghanistan’s fiber optic thorough road map for the country’s the face of challenges are possible
infrastructure will facilitate future growth, holding infrastructure when underscored by political
Afghanistan’s long-term plan to and investment as the fundamental willpower. China has communicated
serve as a major data transit route, building blocks with which to its strong political will to work in
bringing substantial benefits construct the country’s development and with Afghanistan, with Chinese
to internet users domestically, agenda. Simultaneously, a revived and commitments to invest in the
regionally and internationally. ambitious China seeks to resurrect country’s human capital and facilitate
ancient land and maritime trade the development of infrastructure
Afghanistan as a Hub for Data routes throughout Eurasia, potentially offering serious opportunities for
Transmission: Afghanistan is placing Afghanistan and its neighbors Afghanistan’s long-term growth and
presently connected to international at the center of a new international stabilization. Further opportunities
fiber optic networks at six points trading network. Afghanistan’s are present in such areas as digital
along its borders with five neighboring location at the heart of Asia and its connectivity and sustainable
countries, including Pakistan (with current development goals present development projects, and in China’s
which it has two connections), a strategic complementarity with potential to act as a mediator in
Iran, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and China, providing opportunities and tense regional political relationships.
Uzbekistan. However, as a landlocked significant potential for deeper Both China and Afghanistan stand
country, it has no direct access to cooperation within the framework of to benefit substantially from the
undersea communication cables. China’s BRI. country’s integration into not only
This renders the country (and its BRI, but other regional transport
northern neighbors) subject to poor Yet the fanfare of the Chinese corridors, as do neighboring countries
and unreliable quality of service in dream and Afghanistan’s potentially and diverse international markets, all
terms of digital communications. instrumental role within it must take of which would profit from efficient,
Afghanistan’s geographic location into account the many challenges affordable transit routes, enhanced
places it in a position to be able to which stand to complicate the economic and digital connectivity,
reduce data transit time between intended partnership. Tense relations and a stable, viable Afghan economy.
India and Europe by as much as a and impediments to cooperation with These pervasive and overarching
millisecond—a substantial decrease China’s foremost ally in South Asia, opportunities for long-term mutual
that will drive faster economic and Pakistan, could undermine avenues benefit present a strong incentive
information exchange with broad for potentially integrating Afghanistan for continued close Chinese-Afghan
worldwide benefit. Its position into BRI via the expansion of CPEC cooperation going forward. If serious
would also facilitate the connection projects. Additionally, a lack of a efforts are undertaken by the Afghan
of Central Asian and South Asian cohesive regional development and Chinese governments to address
fiber optic networks. Continued strategy, and the overabundance the significant, though largely
development of and investment of unimplemented or unenforced surmountable, challenges facing
in Afghan fiber optic networks regional and bilateral agreements the full incorporation of Afghanistan
could efficiently connect other between Afghanistan and its into BRI, the resulting growth and
landlocked countries such as neighbors, also presents a connectivity could contribute
the Central Asian republics to practical problem to the planned substantially to positive economic,
undersea cables via neighboring implementation of BRI in the region. political and social developments
Pakistan or Iran, increasing Pervasive security challenges in in Afghanistan, the region and
the speed of international data Afghanistan must be mitigated or worldwide.

www.eastwest.ngo 13
 Afghanistan Reconnected:
Challenges and Opportunities in the Context of
China’s Belt and Road Initiative

EWI Policy Brief by

Annie Cowan

With contributions from

Muhammad Amin and Charles Elkins

Brussels, March 2018

New York | Brussels | Moscow | San Francisco

www.eastwest.ngo | t: @EWInstitute | f: EastWestInstitute

14 www.eastwest.ngo