Modeling and Simulation

Challenges and Best Practices for

Industry
Modeling and Simulation
Challenges and Best Practices for
Industry

Guillaume Dubois
This book was previously published in French as La simulation numérique:  Enjeux et bonnes pratiques pour
l’industrie  (Numerical simulation: Challenges and best practices for industry) by Dunod, Malakoff, France.

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Names: Dubois, Guillaume, author.

Title: Modeling and simulation : challenges and best practices for industry /
Guillaume Dubois.
Description: Boca Raton : Taylor & Francis, a CRC title, part of the Taylor &
Francis imprint, a member of the Taylor & Francis Group, the academic
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Identifiers: LCCN 2017054207| ISBN 9780815374893 (hardback : acid-free paper)
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“ Be the change that you wish to see in this world.”

—Gandhi 
Foreword

Numerical modeling and simulation have revolutionized the industry over

the past few decades. It has allowed us to design more complex systems and
predict behaviors without field testing. Today’s trucks, cars, and planes are
higher performing and produced faster at a lower cost. However, numerical
simulation expansion and mutations are still evolving at pace and have a
long way to go. Great opportunities for numerous industries are still to come.

My teams and I often have to address challenging questions that require

the use of numerical simulation. To go further, the scope of simulation, its
limitations, the expected impacts and benefits must be assessed. These are
questions that are top of the mind for any company that wants to remain
competitive and relevant in the future.

This book is accessible and holistic enough to be useful to different catego-

ries of readers, whether they are project leaders, engineers, or students. It
gives a good understanding of what simulation is and when it really should
be used. It further provides both technical and organizational best practices
to implement it. This book will be a strong contribution to the expansion and
adoption of simulation in the industry.
Martin Lundstedt,
President and CEO of Volvo Group

vii
Special Thanks

I thank, for proofreading or making detailed comments on this or that,

in alphabetical order: Alexis Beauvillain, Claire Casas, Jyster Crauser-
Delbourg, Laurent Di Valentin, Sébastien Dubois, Antoine Ferret, Manuel
Fontanier, Florent Fossé, Étienne Fradet, Éric Le Dantec, Ikramjit Narang,
Éric Noirtat, Hugues-Loup Robedat, Éric Suty, Manuel Tancrez; Éric Tomieto,
Benoît Trémeau, Yang Xu, and Alexandre Zann.

To Taylor & Francis, especially Cindy Renee Carelli, executive editor, and
Renee Nakash, editorial assistant, for their professionalism and the quality
of their work.

To Dunod for allowing me to publish this book abroad.

To Martin Lundstedt, for his Foreword and being a great leader.

To Dorothée Dorwood and Olivier Franceschi, the Traductorz, for the quality
of their translation and their great conviviality.

To Benoît Parmentier, whom fate took away violently and whom I wish could
have proofread this book, for training me when I was starting out.

To my parents, Chantal and Xavier, for their proofreading, their encourage-

ments, and their eternal support.

To my family, especially Cécile, Sébastien, Claire, Youri, Lucas, Julien,

Jeanine, Gérard, Martine, Séverine, Ivan, Geneviève, and Michel, for encour-
aging me and bringing me happy moments.

To Violette, for being inspiring.

To the Ethiopian farmers from 2000  years ago who discovered coffee and
enabled me to write this book within a few weeks, by night.

Finally, to Doug, the fictional engineer we follow in this book, who, although
he doesn’t exist, helped me a lot in my writing.

ix
Contents

About the Author................................................................................................. xiii

Introduction......................................................................................................... xvii

1 What Is Numerical Simulation?...................................................................1

1.1 What Is a Model?....................................................................................1
1.2 What Is a Simulation?............................................................................ 4
1.3 What Are Modeling and Numerical Simulations?........................... 4
1.4 What Is a State Representation?...........................................................6
1.5 What Is the Value of Numerical Simulation?.....................................8

2 A Bit of History................................................................................................9
2.1 Before 1940.............................................................................................. 9
2.2 From 1940 to 1960: The First Steps of Numerical Simulation........ 10
2.3 From 1960 to 1980: The Evolution of Numerical Simulation.......... 11
2.4 From 1980 to 1995: The Revolution of Numerical Simulation....... 13
2.5 From 1995 to 2015: The Spread of Numerical Simulation.............. 14
2.6 Three Lessons from History............................................................... 16

3 Numerical Simulation in Industry: Why?................................................ 17

3.1 Why Expand Simulation?................................................................... 17
3.1.1 A Predictive Tool…................................................................. 17
3.1.2 …That Is Profitable.................................................................. 18
3.2 Contributions of Simulation............................................................... 19
3.2.1 The Modeling Iceberg............................................................ 19
3.2.2 Eight Levers of Value Creation............................................. 19
3.3 Simulation Costs and Limits.............................................................. 31
3.3.1 Costs of Simulation................................................................. 31
3.3.2 Limits to Simulation............................................................... 32
3.4 Deciding Whether to Use Simulation or Not................................... 33

4 Efficient Use of Numerical Simulation: Technical Aspects.................. 35

4.1 Different Kinds of Numerical Simulations...................................... 35
4.2 Five Steps to Expand Numerical Simulation................................... 37
4.3 Eight Technical Best Practices............................................................ 38
4.3.1 Best Practice 1: Defining the Objective................................ 40
4.3.2 Best Practice 2: Including Sufficient and Necessary
Physical Phenomena��������������������������������������������������������������44
4.3.3 Best Practice 3: Converting into Equations and
Configuring the Model ��������������������������������������������������������� 50

xi
xii Contents

4.3.4 Best Practice 4: Picking the Software................................... 59

4.3.5 Best Practice 5: Managing the Numerical and IT Issues...... 63
4.3.6 Best Practice 6: Managing the Validity Level of the
Results������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 69
4.3.7 Best Practice 7: Producing Useful Results........................... 76
4.3.8 Best Practice 8: Maintaining and Storing the Models....... 79

5 Efficient Use of Numerical Simulation: Organizational Aspects.......85

5.1 Stakeholders.......................................................................................... 85
5.2 Eight Organizational Best Practices.................................................. 86
5.2.1 Best Practice 1: Leading Change Related to
Numerical Simulation ............................................................ 87
5.2.2 Best Practice 2: Defining a Numerical Simulation
Expansion Strategy���������������������������������������������������������������� 91
5.2.3 Best Practice 3: Managing Communication for
Numerical Simulation����������������������������������������������������������� 95
5.2.4 Best Practice 4: Provide Any Necessary Means to
Numerical Simulation����������������������������������������������������������� 99
5.2.5 Best Practice 5: Industrializing Numerical Simulation.......102
5.2.6 Best Practice 6: Managing the Numerical
Simulation–Related Skills.................................................... 108
5.2.7 Best Practice 7: Managing the Models Expansion............ 112
5.2.8 Best Practice 8: Managing Configurations of Models
and Results���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 120

6 The Future of Numerical Simulation in Industry: The Early

Twenty-First Century.................................................................................. 125
6.1 Why Is Predicting the Future Important?...................................... 125
6.2 The Next 20  Years.............................................................................. 125
6.2.1 Changes from the Past, Still in Progress........................... 126
6.2.2 Changes to Come.................................................................. 126
6.3 And Then?........................................................................................... 138
Conclusion............................................................................................................ 139
Bibliography ........................................................................................................ 141
Index...................................................................................................................... 143
About the Author

Guillaume Dubois works at McKinsey & Company and serves clients in

various types of industries.

Guillaume graduated as an engineer from École Centrale Paris, France. He

started his career at Pratt & Whitney Canada, developing thermal models for
airplane engines and at Enertime, developing financial models for biomass
plants. He then joined PSA Peugeot Citroën, where he created and grew
new modeling activities, teams, and processes across R&D departments to
improve energy efficiency of cars.

He has progressively held the different roles discussed in this book: mod-
eling engineer—developing models, team manager—managing these engi-
neers, project manager—being a client of these teams.

Guillaume authored La simulation numérique: Enjeux et bonnes pratiques pour

l’industrie (Numerical simulation: Challenges and best practices for indus-
try), published by Dunod, Malakoff, France, in 2016. Modeling and Simulation:
Challenges and Best Practices for Industry is the English version.

xiii
This  book has been translated by Dorothée Dorwood and Olivier Franceschi. 
Introduction

Why This Book?

A few decades ago, numerical simulation introduced a significant disrup-
tion among the major sectors of industry. It revolutionized the realm of
possibility and brought more value than the usual operational tools. It then
expanded progressively. In the early twenty-first century, numerical simula-
tion expansion and mutations are far from being over. Great changes are still
ahead of us.
However, the expansion of numerical simulation remains obviously slow.
Only a few industry leaders manage to comprehend its full potential. We’ll
see that this slowness may be partly explained by poor knowledge sharing.
This sluggishness affects its expansion in industry and results in a loss of
potential return for our society.
The usual questions, which don’t often receive satisfying answers, are the
following:

1. What is numerical simulation and what is its intrinsic value?

2. Why expand it further in industry? Under what conditions? How
much trust can we allow?
3. How can it be expanded in industry?
4. What are the pitfalls and the technical and organizational best
practices?
5. What leads are there for the future? How can we be a driving force?

The purpose of this work is to bring the clearest answers to these ques-
tions. Our goal here is to contribute to knowledge sharing in order to open
pathways to the expansion of numerical simulation and maximize the cre-
ation of value for our society.
Observation: The objective of this work is not to explain in detail digital
methods and techniques adapted to specific fields. Many works exist about
these topics (including Pratique de la simulation numérique, Dunod).

xvii
xviii Introduction

Who Is This Book For? (To Be Read First If You Are in a Hurry)
This work targets three types of people:

• Managers and project managers: In order to gain perspective on the sub-

ject of numerical simulation, the conditions of successful planning,
the limits, and the impacts on management, first read Chapters 1, 3,
5, and 6.
• Modeling and simulation engineers (in every sense, including experts): In
order to contribute from the inside to the expansion of simulation,
still gaining perspective on the impacts, first read Chapters 1, 3, 4,
and 6.
• Students and teachers: In order to prepare the next generation, who
will contribute to simulation in industry, first read Chapters 1, 2, 3,
4, and 6.

What Industries Is This Work Concerned With?

Numerical simulation is used in an increasing number of sectors.
Nevertheless, the present work focuses on its use in industry, particularly the
aircraft, energy, car, space, transport, agribusiness, and chemistry industries.
1
What Is Numerical Simulation?

A model is a testable representation of a system. Numerical simulation

consists of translating a mathematical model into numerical language
in order to perform complex calculations more easily.
Discerning readers may skip to the next chapter.

1.1  What Is a Model?

A model of a system is an experienceable representation.
Let’s begin with defining what a system is. It is an object (real or abstract)
or a set of objects that we are willing to study. It is a very broad concept:
for instance, a system may be a plane, an engine, or even a screw. Note that
it may contain subsystems that are systems as well. So, in industry, teams
work on systems on a daily basis (these systems will be products or parts of
products marketed by the company), either to conceive, develop, or produce
them.
There are many possible representations of a single system. In this work,
we will deal with a mathematical representation; that is to say, the represen-
tation aims at describing its behavior through equations. Those equations
often come from known laws of physics (such as the forces of gravity or the
fundamental principles of dynamics). The representation of a system may
be understood as a rationalization of reality or a vision of a system through
one angle.
In industry, a wide range of systems are constantly tested through live
experiments. For example, we are able to test an aircraft engine to assess
the temperatures its compartments can reach or to test a screw to determine
what mechanical stresses it can resist. Also, a system representation can be
tested. This experiment will consequently be virtual.
Let’s illustrate this concept with an example, represented by the figure
below, assuming that our goal is to assess the duration of an ice cube melting
in a glass of water (Figure 1.1).
The system studied here is an ice cube—that is to say, the volume of water
initially contained in it. The rest of the water filling the glass will be the

1
2 Modeling and Simulation

Ice cube

Air
Water
c
T0

hwater
Twater

FIGURE 1.1
The system studied: an ice cube floating in a glass of water.

environment of the system. We will build a representation of the ice cube,

making it simpler.
We consider that the ice cube exchanges, by convection, with the rest of the
water contained in the glass. Using thermodynamics, we can assume that
the exchanged heating power will be

Pexchanged ( t ) = 5hwater ( Twater − T0 ) c 2 ( t )

Where:
t is time
hwater is the heat convection coefficient between the water and the ice cube
Twater is the water temperature
T0 is the temperature of the ice cube
c(t) is the width of the cube, still frozen

Our hypothesis is that the heat exchanges with the air, at the upper side
of the ice cube, are insignificant compared with those of the water, and we
are simplifying the problem by also assuming all the other sides are fully in
contact with the water.
Heat energy contained in the ice cube can be approximated as

Ecube ( t ) = E0 − Lwater fusion ρice c 3 (t)

Where:
E0 is the ice cube’s energy once it has melted
Lwater fusion is the mass enthalpy of the state change from a liquid to a solid
state
Usual physics laws allow us to predict the total exchanged power equal to
the variation of the system’s energy. Thus, we can write
What Is Numerical Simulation? 3

Pexchanged (t) = 5hwater (Twater–T0)c2(t)

Ecube(t) = E0– Lwater fusion ρice c3(t)

∂E cube (t)
= Pexchanged (t)
∂(t)

c(tfinal) = 0

FIGURE 1.2
Mathematical model vs. reality.

This set of equations

• Is a system representation (the ice cube)

• Is testable (It is a set of four equations with four unknowns and a
single solution we can determine.) (Figure 1.2)

This is a model!
To thoroughly illustrate our example, we can test this model on a specific
situation. The model is solved analytically, and the solution of this set of
equations is (calculation details are skipped)

3Lwater fusion ρice c ( t = 0 )

tfinal =
5hwater (Twater − T0 )
Where tfinal is the time the ice cube takes to melt entirely.
Let’s detail the situation we want to test.

c(t = 0) = 2 cm

Twater = 20°C

T0 = 0°C


 hwater = 250 W/K/m
2


Lwater fusion = 334 kJ/kg

ρice = 917 kg/m 3


The result we get for this test is tfinal ≈ 12 mn.

We have performed the live experiment for you, reader, and the time found
was 9 minutes, which means that our model has a +33% gap with reality.
Nothing surprising here, as our modeling is very simplified and we have
eluded several factors.
4 Modeling and Simulation

A significant consequence of this definition: there is always an infinite

range of models for a single system. Going back to the example of the ice
cube, the reader will notice that we could have complicated the system rep-
resentation (we would theoretically get a more accurate time for the duration
of the ice cube melting).
We could have taken into account the ice cube’s surface reduction and its
shape-changing effects on the power exchange between the air and the cube,
or the radiative occurrences between the ice cube and the other surrounding
elements, which can’t be ignored. We made a choice as to the level of reality
simplification to build this model. This choice must depend on many factors,
which will be covered in Chapter 3.

1.2  What Is a Simulation?

A simulation is the action of performing a test on a model.
Theoretically speaking, the concepts of model and simulation are differ-
ent, as a model is a tool, whereas a simulation is the action of using that tool.
Nevertheless, these notions are connected and in practice are often used inter-
changeably. The result of a simulation is also frequently called a simulation.

1.3  What Are Modeling and Numerical Simulations?

A numerical model is a model implemented into a numerical tool.
In practice, it is about translating the mathematical model into a numerical
language (informatics) in order to test it on a numerical tool (computer).
Why use numerical tools?
Digital technology is used because we don’t know how to get results on a
complex model without using a digital tool. Today, any computer will cal-
culate faster than a human. Whenever the calculations become numerous
or complex, they become theoretically unachievable without a digital tool.
Indeed, it would require too much time to get the result.
Let’s illustrate this by going back to the last example of an ice cube melting. We
took a very simple case, where we could solve the model without needing a digi-
tal tool. Let’s make the situation a little more complex, assuming this time that
a small heated steel solid was placed at the surface of the ice cube (Figure 1.3).
This heated steel solid will increase the melting speed of the ice cube.
We can go back to the previous equations, considering that an additional
exchange is taken into account: the heat exchange with the steel solid. Let’s
assume that this extra power is Psolid exchange(t) = φsolid, where φsolid is a constant
equaling 1 W. The model becomes
What Is Numerical Simulation? 5

Ice cube
Solid

Air
Water
c
T0

hwater Twater

FIGURE 1.3
The new system studied: the ice cube is now touching a solid made of steel.

Pexchanged ( t ) = 5hwater (Twater − T0 )c 2 (t) + ϕsolid


E (t) = E − L
water fusion ρice c ( t )
3
 cube 0

 ∂E (t)
 cube = Pexchanged (t)
 ∂t

c(tfinal ) = 0
or
 ∂c(t)  1 
 = − A + B 2 
 ∂t  c (t) 

 A = 5hwater (Twater − T0 )
 3Lwater fusion ρice


B = ϕsolid
 3Lwater fusion ρice

c(tfinal ) = 0

This very simple addition (the heated solid) complicates the situation. Here,
the equation isn’t analytically solvable (without using inverse trigonometric
functions; that would also require the digital tool).
We have to use numerical methods to solve the equation. For instance, we
can reject time, considering an infinitesimal time frame dt (we will take here
dt = 0.1 s).

 c(t + dt) − c ( t )  1 
 = − A + B 2 
 dt  c (t) 

c(tfinal ) = 0
6 Modeling and Simulation

We are thereby able to calculate c step by step, until the value reaches 0.

c(t = 0) = c0

  1 
c(dt) = c(t = 0) − dt  A + B 2 
  c (t = 0 ) 

  1 
c(2 * dt) = c(t = dt) − dt  A + B 2 
  c (t = dt ) 

  1 
c(3 * dt) = c(t = 2 * dt) − dt  A + B 2 
  c ( t = 2 * dt ) 

...

  1 
c(n * dt) = c(t = ( n − 1) * dt) − dt  A + B 2
  c (t = (n − 1) * dt) 

c(tfiinal ) = 0



In this way, there are n calculations to operate to be able to find the final
value (n being the number of iterations to perform before stopping); that is to
say, before c(n*dt) becomes negative. We’ll see that tfinal ≈ 455 s ≈ 8 mn, where
dt = 0.1 s; so 4550 calculations must be performed to find the answer!
This is the moment the digital tool unveils its usefulness. It is able to per-
form these 4550 calculations in a split second, whereas a human being would
have needed several hours. A computer just needs these previous equations
translated into a digital language to solve them (see the numerical model in
Figure 1.4).
By using a computer and the appropriate software, these calculations are
performed in a split second, and the solution we find is tfinal ≈ 455 s ≈ 8 mn.
Thus, in 99% of the situations encountered in industry, mathematical mod-
els are converted into numerical models, in order to solve them with digital
tools.
As explained in the previous paragraph, a numerical simulation is the action
of performing a test with a numerical model.

1.4  What Is a State Representation?

We briefly mentioned this notion because it organizes the model and will be
useful later. A model can take the following form (state representation):
What Is Numerical Simulation? 7

T_water = 273.15 + 20
T_0 = 273.15 + 0
h_water = 250
L_water_fusion = 334 *10^3
Rho_ice = 917
Phi_solid = 1

A = (5 * h_water (T_water - T_0))/

(3 * L_water_fusion * Rho_ice)
B = Phi_solid/(3 * L_water_fusion * Rho_ice)

c = 0.02
∂c(t) 1
t = 0 =− A+B 2
Delta_t = 0.1 ∂t c (t)

While (c > 0) 5hwater (Twater-T0)

A=
c = c – Delta_t * (A + B/(c^2)) 3Lwater fusion ρice
t = t + Delta_t
End ϕsolid
B=
3Lwater fusion ρice

Print t c(tfinal)=0

FIGURE 1.4
Numerical mode, mathematical model, and reality.

d
 dt x = f ( x , u, θ, t)

 y = h( x , u, θ, t)


Where:
x is the state vector, including variables selected to define the system
y is the output vector, including the variables to be observed
u is the input vector, including the variables defining the system
request
θ is the setting vector, including the setting variables of the system

We can illustrate this with the previous example:

 ∂c(t)  5h (T −T ) ϕsolid 1 
 = −  water water 0 +
 ∂t  3Lwater fusion ρice 3Lwater fusion ρice c (t) 
2


 y = c(t)
Where:
x = c(t)
y = c(t)
u = [Twater T0 ϕsolid ]
θ = [ hwater Lwater fusion ρice ]
8 Modeling and Simulation

The model being simple, we only have a single state variable, and the out-
put variable is equal to the state variable.

1.5  What Is the Value of Numerical Simulation?

We stated that a model is a testable representation of a system, which leads
to two inherent values:

1.
A model is testable: It is possible to predict, without live experiments,
the behavior of the system in a specific situation.
2.
A model is a representation: It is necessary to comprehend the system
to represent it, and the model itself includes this knowledge.

These two core values, combined with the power of the tools of digital
technology, generate huge potential to support industrial companies. More
details will be covered in Chapter 3.
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