NEPLAN® Reliability Analysis

„ Introduction
„ Input Data
„ Results
„ Calculation
„ Failure Modes
„ Program Features
„ Reliability Centered Maintenance
NEPLAN®
www.neplan.ch
[email protected]

Dr. Markus Leuzinger BCP Inc.

Busarello + Cott + Partner
Bahnhofstr. 40
CH - 8703 Erlenbach
Switzerland

Phone +41 1 914 36 66

Fax +41 1 991 19 71
 Concept of Reliability Analysis

System
characteristics
(interaction of
components)

Reliability data of
each component

Reliability indices
Reliability • of total system
Analysis • for each load

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 2
 Applications of Reliability Analysis (1)

„ Weak-point analysis
• Causes of interruptions / interruption cost
• Comparison of countermeasures
„ Comparison between different planning variants
• Does lower cost necessarily mean poor reliability?
„ Importance of components for reliability centered
maintenance planning
• Prioritization of those maintenance actions with high system impact
„ Comparison between different network structures
• E.g. ring feeder / radial feeder
„ Comparison between different topologies of substations

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 3
 Applications of Reliability Analysis (2)

„ Assessment of the replacement of overhead lines by cable

systems
„ Reliability of the network connection of a generation unit
• Cost of power delivery interruption
„ Comparison of the network connection of different customers
• Knowledge about the interruption cost of customers
„ Penalty payments for different contracts
• Analyses for preparing new offers for special customers and tariff
customers
„ Variant comparison for automation (remote controlled
disconnectors) in distribution networks
• Equal/better solutions with less primary technology

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 4
 Example [Haub]: Supply for a 110 kV Station

Variant 1:
Bus 1 Bus 2
110 kV 110 kV

Existing System:
Bus 1 Bus 2
110 kV 110 kV

Bus 3
110 kV

Variant 2:
Bus 1 Bus 2
110 kV 110 kV

New 110 kV
Station

Bus 3
110 kV

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 5
 Example [Haub]: Variant Comparison

„ Reliability: „ Costs
• Both variants fulfill the n-1 criteria „ Load flow:
• Which variant is more reliable ? Variant 2 better than 1
• Effects on the existing station ? „ ...
Existing station New station
Expected
interruption
frequency
(1/yr)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 6
 Reliability Analysis Input Data

Component = Smallest unit considered during reliability calculation (line, cable,

transformer, generator, induction machine, busbar, disconnector, circuit breaker,
coupler...)
A component has his own reliability data.

Component
Reliability Data:

Example:
Component: …
Overhead line, 110 kV
Failure Type: …
• Failure frequency (per year
Statistics
and length unit):
F = 0.1 1/(km*yr)
• Repair duration: 10 h

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 7
 Network Model

Reliability analysis needs a detailed network representation.

Based on a load flow model, the following information has to be
added:

„ Topology of stations (single busbar, double busbars,…)

„ Switching devices: disconnectors, circuit breakers, couplers
„ Duration of switching operations (automatic / remote controlled /
local)
„ Tripping direction of circuit breakers
„ Special protection concepts (differential, backup function)
„ System grounding (direct / compensated / isolated)
„ Load / generation characteristics
„ Modeling of Interruption costs

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 8
 Switching Devices, Switching Durations

R R R

Disconnector (closed, open) Tripped zone

R Remote controlled disconnector
Circuit breaker Disconnected zone after remote
switching (e.g. 15 minutes)
Disconnected zone after local switching
(e.g. 2 hours)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 9
 Probabilistic Reliability Indices

Per load / for total system:

F 1/yr Expected frequency of supply interruption
Pr min/yr Expected probability of interruption
T h Average duration of interruptions
P MW/yr Expected interrupted power / power not supplied
W MWh/yr Expected energy not supplied
C Curr/yr Expected cost of supply interruption

Per generator / for total system:

F 1/yr Expected frequency of power changes
Pr min/yr Expected probability of power changes
T h Average duration of power changes
P MW/yr Expected power changes
W MWh/yr Expected energy changes
C Curr/yr Expected cost of power changes

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 10
 Example [Haub]: Connecting a New Industry Customer

Variant 1:
10 km double
cable

Variant 2:
30 km double
overhead line

Results:
Which variant must
F (1/yr) T (h) Pr (min/yr) be chosen?
Variant 1 0.000024 127.39 0.18 It depends on the
Variant 2 0.060009 4.00 14.40 customer
requirements.

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 11
 Examples of Customer Requirements

„ Weaving mill, car manufacturer

• Each supply interruption causes a production restart.
• Interruption frequency F is important
„ Warehouse for frozen foods, food manufacturer
• The longer an interruption duration, the more the temperature
increases.
• Interruption duration T is important
„ Metal processing company
• Production loss is proportional to interruption frequency and repair
duration
• Interruption probability Q is important

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 12
 IEEE Standard Reliability Indices

SAIFI 1/yr System average interruption frequency index

CAIDI h Customer average interruption duration index
SAIDI min/yr System average interruption duration index
ASAI % Average service availability index

SAIFI = Total number of customer interruptions / Total number of customers served

CAIDI = ∑ Customer interruption durations / Total number of customer interruptions

SAIDI = ∑ Customer interruption durations / Total number of customers served

ASAI = Customer hours service availability / Customer hours service demand

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 13
 Reliability Analysis Results

Total system:
SAIFI, CAIDI, SAIDI, ASAI
Ftot, Prtot, Ttot, Ptot, Wtot, Ctot

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 14
 Reliability Analysis Results

Total system:
SAIFI, CAIDI, SAIDI, ASAI
Ftot, Prtot, Ttot, Ptot, Wtot, Ctot

For each load / generator:

Fi, Pri, Ti, Pi, Wi, Ci

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 15
 Reliability Analysis Results

Total system:
SAIFI, CAIDI, SAIDI, ASAI
Ftot, Prtot, Ttot, Ptot, Wtot, Ctot

For each load / generator:

Fi, Pri, Ti, Pi, Wi, Ci

Causes of the interruptions:

• of the total system
• of one/several load(s)
• of one/several generator(s)

Component F T Pr P W C
... ... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ... ...
... ... ... ... ... ...

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 16
 Visualization of the Results in NEPLAN

„ Single line diagram

• Customize functions (displayed
variables, digits)
• Coloring according to reliability
results
„ Tables
• Sort functions
• Zoom functions
• Copy-Paste to external programs
possible (e.g Excel)
„ Charts
• Multiple chart window
• Multiple charts on one window
• Many useful features (color,
width,...)
• Copy-Paste functions

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 17
 Results Evaluation

Evaluation options:
• Selection of failure modes to be
considered
• Selection of loads/generators to
be considered
• Filter by interruption duration
Results (min., max. duration)
Calculation
Evaluation

Raw
Results

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 18
 Calculation Methods

„ Monte Carlo Simulation

• Repeated chronological simulation
• No limits to the stochastic models
• High computational demands
• Inexact results

„ Analytic Markov Methods

• State enumeration: all relevant failures are analyzed
one by one
• Constant failure rates
• Much faster than Monte Carlo simulations
• Exact results

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 19
 Homogenous Markov Process

λ2 • λ constant failure rates (1/yr)

Comp 1 up Comp 1 up
• µ constant repair rates (1/h)
Comp 2 up
µ2 Comp 2 dn
• Failure frequency (1/a)
λ⋅µ
λ1 µ1 µ1 λ1
F=
λ+µ
λ2 F ≈ λ , µ >> λ
Comp 1 dn Comp 1 dn

Comp 2 up
µ2 Comp 2 dn
• Failure duration (h)
State space diagram of 2 repairable 1
components T=
µ

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 20
 Fundamental Calculation Flow

Network
Networkdata
datainput
input

Load
Load11
Ef
Load fe
Load22 ct
on Generation
Generationofoffailure
failure
Load lo
Load33 ad combination
combination
i
Gen
Gen11
Gen
Gen22 Failure
Failureeffect
effect
Gen
Gen33 analysis
analysis

t o n generator k
Effec

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 21
 Failure Effect Analysis

„ Automatic reactions of the power system to failures

• Overcurrent relays, fuses, distance relays, circuit breakers
„ Overload protection
„ Fault isolation
• Disconnectors
„ Power restoration
• Network re-configuration
• Maintenance cut-off
• Generation re-dispatch
• Switching in backup equipment and cold reserve
„ Load shedding, load transfer
„ Network state analysis
• Complex load flow (complete load flow calculation)
• Maximum flow algorithm (impedances neglected)
• Connection check (loading limits neglected)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 22
 Example for Local Switching

a) EHV b) HöS
HV
HS

transfer busbar U-Schiene

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 23
 Example for Load Transfer (Before Switching)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 24
 Example for Load Transfer (After Switching)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 25
 Failure Modes

„ Single failures
• Independent failure, short duration
• Independent failure, long duration
• Forced manual disconnection, delayed
• Forced manual disconnection, prompt
• Common mode failure
• Ground fault in isolated/compensated systems
• Unintended switch opening
„ Multiple failures
• Overlapping of single failures
• Overlapping of maintenance outages and single failures
• Multiple ground faults in isolated/compensated systems
• Independent failure + protection failure
• Independent failure + protection overfunction

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 26
 Independent Single Failure

Short circuit on component

Correct protection tripping

Possible causes: Data:

• Damage by excavator • Frequency in 1/yr or
• Bad isolation 1/(km yr)

• Storms • Repair duration in h

• Trees …for short and long

outages

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 27
 Subdivision into Short and Long Outages (1)

Repair duration probability function

• Essential amount of short

outages
• Short outages: no damage,
component is re-connected
after a check
• Accurate model is achieved
by separate treatment of short
outages

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 28
 Subdivision into Short and Long Outages (2)

Repair duration
Prtot = α ⋅ 1 − e T 1  + (1 − α ) ⋅ 1 − e T 2 
−t −t

   
E.g.:
α = 0.5
T1 = 10 min, T2 = 300 min

Short repair duration Long repair duration

−t −t
Pr1 = 1 − e T1
Pr2 = 1 − e T2

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 29
 Manual Disconnection

Damage/incident without short circuit

and without protection tripping

a) No immediate danger
• Delayed disconnection possible
• Local switching operations
• Usually on cables
• Data: frequency, repair duration

b) Immediate danger
• Immediate disconnection required
• Remote controlled disconnections
• Usually on overhead lines
• Data: frequency, repair duration

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 30
 Manual Disconnection (2)

Example for type b):

Immediate disconnection required

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 31
 Common Mode Failure

Data:
• Frequency (1/yr)
• Repair duration (h)

Definition: Examples:
Simultaneous occurrence of two • Lightning flash-over at multi-circuit
or more failures due to a single towers
common cause • Damage to multi-circuit towers due to
car accidents / trees / storms
• Multiple cable damage due to
excavation works

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 32
 Ground Fault Clearing in Isolated / Compensated Systems

Definition:
• Single phase fault in a
compensated / isolated network
• Small capacitive current, no
protection tripping
• Damaged component has to be
disconnected and repaired
• Delayed disconnection possible
• Enough time for local switching
operations

Data:
• Frequency (1/yr)
• Repair duration (h)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 33
 Unintended Switch Opening

Causes:
• Human error, mistaken switching
operation (wrong breaker is opened)
• Circuit Breaker failure (spontaneous
circuit breaker opening)
• Mal-trip: incorrect opening of a circuit
breaker by a protection device without a
Data:
short-circuit in the system (spontaneous
• Frequency (1/yr) protection tripping)
• Maintenance related inadvertent circuit
breaker open (e.g. backup equipment is
taken out inadvertently)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 34
 Overlapping of Stochastic Single Failures

• Multiple independent failures

• Single indep. failure + manual disconnection
• Single indep. failure + common mode failure
A B
• Single indep. failure + line-to-ground fault
• Multiple manual disconnections
• Manual disconnection + common mode
failure
• Manual disconnection + line-to-ground fault
• Multiple common mode failures
A∩B • Common mode failure + line-to-ground fault

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 35
Overlapping of Planned Outages and Stochastic Single Failures

Planned (determined, unforced) outage

• Maintenance work
• No supply interruption
Maintenance
Planned Stochastic failure
outage • Forced outage

Combinations:
Determined outage +
• Single independent failure
• Manual disconnection
• Common mode failure
• Line-to-ground fault

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 36
 Multiple Ground Faults in Isolated / Compensated Systems

Definition:
• Single phase fault in a compensated
/ isolated network
• Small capacitive current, no
protection tripping
• Voltage is raised by a factor 3

• Increased voltage may lead to a

second short circuit (with probability
Pr)
• Automatic protection intervention

Data of component with primary Data of component with secondary

single phase fault: single phase fault:
• Frequency (1/yr) • Probability (-)
• Repair duration (h) • Repair duration (h)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 37
 Independent Failure together with Protection Failure

Reserve function Protection failure

Data of component with independent failure: Possible causes:

• Frequency (1/yr) • Faulty protection settings
• Repair duration (h) • Failure of auxiliary voltage supply
• Failure of auxiliary equipment
Data of failing circuit breaker: • Circuit breaker failure
• Probability (-)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 38
 Independent Failure together with Protection Overfunction

Overfunction Correct function

Data of component with independent failure: Possible cause:

• Frequency (1/yr) • Faulty protection settings
• Repair duration (h)

Data of overfunctioning circuit breaker:

• Probability (-)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 39
 Concept of Reliability Data Types

„ Entering reliability data by the use

of reliability data types. E.g:
• Busbar 110kV air-insolated
• Cable PVC 20 kV
• Overhead line 380 kV
„ Data types can be easily assigned
to network elements
„ NEPLAN standard library
„ Different types:
• Generator
• Load
• General component (e.g. for busbars, transformers)
• Line (same as gen. comp. + length dependent values)
• Switch device (same as gen. comp. + breaker and protection data)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 40
 Interruption Cost

„ Can be defined by cost curve:

Cost = f (interruption duration)
„ Interruption cost is calculated during reliability analysis
• for each load
• for each failure
Load-i:

120

100
Failure T int Cost
80 1 45 min 750 €
60
2 60 min 1000 €
40
: : :
20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Total cost …

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 41
 Overload Protection

• Short circuit • Protection • Overload

on line 2 tripping protection: line 1 is
• Line 1 has to disconnected
take the whole
load
• Overloaded

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 42
 Load Shedding

„ A detected overload is
eliminated by load
shedding
„ Load priorities can be
defined
„ Partial supply possible

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 43
 Bus Protection

No bus protection
• Bus is protected by directional line relays
• Bus fault is cleared by the breakers in their
second zone

∑I>0 Bus Differential Protection

• Most common method
• Based on the “current law” that requires
the sum of all currents entering the bus to
sum to zero

Bus Protection by Backward Zones

• Bi-directional relays
• Backup function for branch protection
• Protects also branch without breaker

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 44
 Generator Model

„ Operating priority
• Generators with low priority are switched off first
„ Startup priority
• Generators with high startup priority are switch on first
„ Possible influence on operation:
• No modification possible
• Only switching on/off possible
• Only power variation possible
• Any modification possible
• Stand-alone island operation possible
„ Power gradient (MW/min)
„ Startup time (h)
„ Probability for startup failures (-)
„ Time for restart after startup failure (h)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 45
 Load Variation Modeled by Load Characteristics

Load State 1 2 3 4
Time Shares 10% 40% 20% 30%
Load char. 1 90% 80% 40% 50%
Load char. 2 100% 100% 100% 100%
: : : : :
Load char. 8 30% 20% 60% 20%

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 46
 Use of Failure Groups Reduces Calculation Time (1)

Power system
Short circuit on
component 1
Affected network
area

• Faulted components are in the

Short circuit on same network area (close together)
component 2
• Simultaneous short circuits on
component 1 and 2 have a greater
effect on the system than the sum
of the effects of the two single short
circuits.
Short circuit on • The double fault has to be
component 1 and 2 considered

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 47
 Use of Failure Groups Reduces Calculation Time (2)

• Faulted components are not in the same

Short circuit on network area (far away from each other)
component 1 • Simultaneous short circuits on component
1 and 2 have exactly the same effect on
the system than the sum of the effects of
the two single short circuits.
• The analysis of the double fault is useless
Short circuit on
component 2 Solution: Definition of failure groups
• Network parts can be marked as failure
groups
• Simultaneous failures of components
belonging to different failure groups are not
Short circuit on considered
component 1 and 2 • Useful if network parts are technically or
geographically separated

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 48
 Use of Failure Groups Reduces Calculation Time (3)

Combination Analyze
1∩2 yes
1∩3 no
1∩4 no
2∩3 no
1 2 3 4 2∩4 no
3∩4 yes

Failure group A Failure group B

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 49
 Maintenance Strategies (1)

Method Strategy Explanation

Time Based preventive „ Maintenance in regular intervals
Maintenance TBM „ Independent of the component condition
„ Leads to high availability
Condition Based preventive „ Component condition check/monitoring
Maintenance CBM „ Scheduling a maintenance whenever a critical
condition is reached (one limit value for each
component class)
„ Limits (critical condition) for each component
group have to be fixed
Reliability Centered preventive „ Component condition check / monitoring
Maintenance RCM „ Scheduling a maintenance whenever the network
function is critically impaired
„ variable limits (critical condition), depending on the
impact on the system function
None / event driven corrective „ No relevant maintenance
„ Repair / exchange after failures

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 50
 Maintenance Strategies (2)

Method Maintenance Planning Maintenance / Repair

Interval Activity Cost
Time Based fixed low high
Maintenance TBM

Condition Based variable medium medium

Maintenance CBM

Reliability Centered variable high low

Maintenance RCM

None / event driven None None Depends on the

system. E.g. low for low
voltage equipment

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 51
 Concept of Reliability Centered Maintenance

Condition
Conditionof
ofthe
the
equipment
equipment

Overall
Overallevaluation
evaluation

Importance
Importanceofofthe
the
equipment
equipmentto
tothe
the
network
network
Maintenance
Maintenance
strategy
strategy

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 52
 Evaluation

• Upper left corner: very poor

condition but the
consequences in case of
failure are negligible
• Lower-right corner: item is in
very good condition, a failure
has considerable
consequences
• Condition < Cw: No action
necessary, equipment is in
good condition
• Cw < Condition < Ce:
Maintenance
• Condition > Ce: Replacement

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 53
 Deriving the Values of Importance i

1. Reliability calculation
2. Creation of failed
components list (weak spot
analysis)
3. Criteria for the importance:
Wint (expected energy not
supplied, EENS)

NEPLAN® www.neplan.ch 54