E-BOOK

OF
POWER SYSTEM PLANNING AND RELIABILITY
SEMESTER-VIII

2018-2019

DEPARTMENT OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING

Course objective:
 To understand the different power system planning and forecasting, techniques and
reliability evaluation in terms of basic reliability indices.

Course outcomes :
 Should be able to make a Generation System Model for the Power system in terms of
frequency and duration of failure.
 Should be able to calculate reliability indices of the power system based on system model
and the load curve.
 Should be able to plan a small Generation and Transmission system, predict its behavior,
and do the required change in order to achieve reliability.
MODULE-1
Load Forecasting
CONTENTS:
1.1 Introduction,

1.2 Classification of Load,

1.3 Load Growth Characteristics,

1.4 Peak Load Forecasting,

1.5 Extrapolation and Co-Relation methods of load Forecasting,

1.6 Reactive Load Forecasting

1.7 Impact of weather on load forecasting.

1.1 INTRODUCTION:
Definition of power system planning:
A process in which the aim is to decide on new as well as upgrading existing system elements, to adequately
satisfy the loads for a foreseen future.
Elements can be:
• Generation facilities
• Substations
• Transmission lines and/or cables
• Capacitors/Reactors
• Etc.

Decision should be
• Where to allocate the element (for instance, the sending and receiving end of a line),
• When to install the element (for instance, 2020),
• What to select, in terms of the element specifications (for instance, number of bundles and conductor type).
 The loads should be adequately satisfied.

Load Forecasting:
 The first crucial step for any planning study.
 The term forecast stands for predictions of future events and conditions. The process of making such
predictions is called forecasting.
 Load Forecasting refers to the prediction of the load behavior for the future load. Load forecasting is the
predicting of electrical power required to meet the short term, medium term or long term demand. The
forecasting helps the utility companies in their operation and management of the supply to their customers.
 Electrical load forecasting is an important process that can increase the efficiency and revenues for the
electrical generating and distribution companies. It helps them to plan ontheir capacity and operations in
order to reliably supply all consumers with the required energy.

Classification of Load Forecasting.

 Electricity load forecasting is usually divided into three or four time frame categories.
1) Long-term load forecasting: Long-term for a period of one year up to 20 years. This is used for system
expansion planning, long-term financial planning, and tariff studies.
 2) Medium-term load forecasting: Medium-term for a period of one to 12 months. The purpose of this
forecast is to properly plan maintenance schedules, major tests and commissioning events, and Outage times
of plants and major equipment.
3) Short-term load forecasting: Short-term, which covers a period of one day up to several days. It is used
for operation planning, unit commitment of generating plants, and load flow studies for economic dispatch.
4) Very short-term is specifically for one to few hours ahead and is used for power exchange and purchase
contracts, and tie-line operation. In many power companies the last two forecasts are combined in one under
the title short-term forecasting.
Advantages of load forecasting:
1) Enables the utility company to plan well since they have an understanding of the future consumption or load
demand.

2) Minimize the risks for the utility company. Understanding the future long term load helps the company to
plan and make economically viable decisions in regard to future generation and transmission investments.

3) Helps to determine the required resources such as fuels required to operate the generating plants as well as
other resources that are needed to ensure uninterrupted and yet economical generation and distribution of the
power to the consumers. This is important for short, medium, and long term planning.

4) The load forecasting helps in planning the future in terms of the size, location and type of the future generating
plant. By determining areas or regions with high or growing demand, the utilities will most likely generate
the power near the load. This minimizes the transmission and distribution infrastructures as well as the
associated losses.

5) Helps in deciding and planning for maintenance of the power systems. By understanding the demand, the
utility can know when to carry out the maintenance and ensure that it has the minimum impact on the
consumers. For example, they may decide to do maintenance on residential areas during the day when most
people are at work and demand is very low.

6) Maximum utilization of power generating plants. The forecasting avoids under generation or over generation.

Challenges in load forecasting:

1) Forecasting is based on expected conditions such as weather. Unfortunately, the weather is sometimes
unpredictable and the forecasting may thus be different when the actual weather differs from expected.
2) In addition, different regions may experience different weather conditions which will definitely affect the
electricity demand. This may have a negative impact on revenues, especially if the utility generates more to
 meet an expected high demand and then it turns out that the consumption is much less than what was generated
either using expensive methods such as fossil fuel generators, etc.
3) Most of the experienced utility forecasters use manual methods that rely on a thorough understanding of a
wide range of contributing factors based on upcoming events or a particular dataset. Relying on the manual
forecasting is not sustainable due to the increasing number and complexity of the forecasting. Utilities must
therefore look for technologies that can accurately give results and eliminate problems that may occur if
experienced forecasters retire or leave employment.
4) The usage behavior varies between consumers using different types of meters and especially between the
smart and traditional meters as well as different tariffs. The utility must understand this and develop separate
forecast model for each of the metering systems and then add them up for the final forecast value. Otherwise,
they will get an inaccurate forecasting.
5) Difficulties getting accurate data on consumption behavior due to changes in factors such as pricing and the
corresponding demand based on such a price change.
6) Load forecasting task is difficult due to the complex nature of loads which may vary depending on the seasons
and the total consumption for two similar seasons may vary.
7) It is sometimes difficult to accurately fit the numerous complex factors that affect demand for electricity into
the forecasting models. In addition, it may not be easy to obtain an accurate demand forecast based on
parameters such as change in temperature, humidity, and other factors that influence consumption.
8) The utility may suffer losses if they do not understand and decide on an acceptable margin of error in short
term load forecasting.

Fig.1.1 factor affecting electrical power demand

1.2 Classification of Load:
 Five broad categories:
I. Domestic
 Domestic load consists of lights, fans, home electric appliances (including TV, AC, refrigerators,
heaters etc.), small motors for pumping water etc. Most of the domestic loads are connected for only
some hours during a day. For example, lighting load is connected for few hours during night time.
• Demand factor: 70-100%
• Diversity factor: 1.2-1.3
• Load factor: 10-15%
II. Commercial
 Commercial load consists of electrical loads that are meant to be used commercially, such as in
restaurants, shops, malls etc. This type of load occurs for more hours during the day as compared
to the domestic load.
• Demand factor: 90-100%
• Diversity factor: 1.1-1.2
• Load factor: 25-30%
III. Industrial
 Industrial load consists of load demand by various industries. It includes all electrical loads used
in industries along with the employed machinery. Industrial loads may be connected during the
whole day.
• Small-scale: 0-20 kW
• Medium-scale: 20-100 kW
• Large-scale: 100 kW and above
– Demand factor: 70-80%
– Load factor: 60-65%
IV. Agricultural
 This type of load is mainly water pumping load where water is supplied to the crop.
• Demand factor: 90-100%
• Diversity factor: 1-1.5
• Load factor: 15-25%
V. Other loads
 This type of load consists of street lighting, water supply and drainage systems etc. Street
lighting is practically constant during the night hours. Water may be pumped to overhead storage
tanks during the off-peak hours to improve the load factor of the system.
 Street lights, bulk supplies, traction etc.
 Commercial and agricultural loads are characterized by seasonal variations.
  Industrial loads are base loads and are little weather dependent.

1.3 Electrical load growth

 Reasons for the growth of peak demand and energy usage within an electric utility system:

• New customer additions

– Load will increase if more customers are buying the utility's product.

– New construction and a net population in-migration to the area will add new customers and
increase peak load.

• New uses of electricity

– Existing customers may add new appliances (replacing gas heaters with electric) or replace
existing equipment with improved devices that require more power.

– With every customer buying more electricity, the peak load and annual energy sales will
most likely increase.
 Load growth caused by new customers who are locating in previously vacant areas.

• Such growth leads to new construction and hence draws the planner's attention.
 Changes in usage among existing customers.

Fig 1.2 Load Growth Characteristics

1.4 Peak load forecasting:

 Annual peak load forecasts are important for planning and in particular for securing adequate generation,
transmission, and distribution capacities.
 More accurate peak forecasts improve decision making capabilities in capital expenditures and improve
reliability of the system.
 Future peak load is not deterministic and it depends on several uncertain factors including weather
conditions.
  Basic approach for weekly peak demand forecast is:
1. Determine seasonal weather load model.
2. Separate historical weather-sensitive and non-weather sensitive components of weekly peak
demand using weather load model.
3. Forecast mean and variance of non-weather-sensitive component of demand.
4. Extrapolate weather load model and forecast mean and variance of weather sensitive component.
5. Determine mean, variance and density function of total weekly forecast.
6. Calculate density function of monthly/annual forecast.
 Assume that the seasonal variations of the peak demand are primarily due to weather.
 Otherwise, before step-3 can be undertaken, any additional seasonal variation remaining after weather-
sensitive variations must be removed
 To use the proposed forecasting method, a data base of at least 12 years is recommended.
 To develop weather load models daily peaks and coincident weather variable values are needed.

1.5 Forecasting techniques:

 Three broad categories based on:
• Extrapolation
– Time series method.
– Use historical data as the basis of estimating future outcomes.
• Correlation
– Econometric forecasting method
– Identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast.
• Combination of both

1.5.1 Extrapolation:

 Based on curve fitting to previous data available.

 With the trend curve obtained from curve fitted load can be forecasted at any future point.

 Simple method and reliable in some cases.

 Deterministic extrapolation:

• Errors in data available and errors in curve fitting are not accounted.

 Probabilistic extrapolation

• Accuracy of the forecast available is tested using statistical measures such as mean and variance.
  Standard analytical functions used in trend curve fitting are:

 Best trend curve is obtained using regression analysis.

 Best estimate may be obtained using equation of the best trend curve.

1.5.2 Correlation:
 Relates system loads to various demographic and economic factors.
 Knowledge about the interrelationship between nature of load growth and other measurable factors.
 Forecasting demographic and economic factors is a difficult task.
 No forecasting method is effective in all situations.
 Designer must have good judgment and experience to make a forecasting method effective.
1.6 Reactive Load Forecasting:
 Reactive power planning is one of the most difficult optimization problem of power system. It requires
effective control of reactive power generation by the all reactive power sources present in the system.
 The sources of reactive power are generators, tap changing transformers, static capacitors, etc. Reactive
power optimization problem mainly deals with the minimization of active power loss.
 It is also observed that the optimum use of the above mentioned reactive power sources reduces active
power loss to a certain extent. Now if FACTS devices like SVC and TCSC are used simultaneously with
the existing reactive power sources present in the system, not only the transmission loss reduces
significantly but also satisfactory improvement of the voltage profile is observed through the entire power
network.
 Hence, the problem that has to be solved in a reactive power optimization problem is to determine the
reactive power generation by the all sources, so as to optimize a certain optimization problem.

1.7 Impact of weather on load forecasting:

 Weather causes variations in domestic load, public lighting, commercial loads etc.
 Main weather variables that affect the power consumption are:
• Temperature
 • Cloud cover
• Visibility
• precipitation
 First two factors affect the heating/cooling loads
 Others affect lighting loads.
 Weather causes variations in domestic load, public lighting, commercial loads etc.
 Main weather variables that affect the power consumption are:
• Temperature
• Cloud cover
• Visibility
• precipitation
 First two factors affect the heating/cooling loads
 Others affect lighting loads.

 Cloud cover is measured in terms of:

• height of cloud cover

• Thickness

• Cloud amount

• Time of occurrence and duration before crossing over a population area.

 Visibility measurements are made in terms of meters/kilometers with fog indication.

 To determine impact of weather variables on load demand, it is essential to analyze data concerning
different weather variables through the cross-section of area served by utility and calculate weighted
averages for incorporation in the modeling.