OUTLOOK 2010 Recent forecasts from World Future Society for the decade ahead

ILEXX / DIANNA TONEY / KTSIMAGE / SEBASTIAN KAULITZKI / LUIS M. MOLINA / RAFAL ZDEB / TOM BONATTI / ISTOCKPHOTO

INTRODUCTION
New energy sources to get us past peak oil will in-
clude algae, ammonia, compressed air, seawater, and gar-
bage. We’ll no longer buy the same old stuff off the
shelves, but rather download unique designs and then
“print” our own stuff. When we get tired of other
people’s designs, we’ll automatically invent our own.
And our connection to technology will become so inti-
mate that we’ll get a cell phone alert whenever love may
be in the air.
Welcome to the latest edition of the World Future
Society’s annual Outlook report, in which the editors
have selected the most thought-provoking forecasts and
ideas appearing in THE FUTURIST over the past year.
These forecasts are not “predictions” of what the future
will be like, but rather glimpses of what may happen or
proposals for futures that we could aspire to. Use these
forecasts to inspire your own thinking about tomorrow
and its myriad prospects.
The opinions and ideas expressed here are those of
their authors or sources cited and do not necessarily
­represent the views of the World Future Society. For more
information, please refer to the original articles cited. Back
issues of THE FUTURIST, as well as additional copies of
this Outlook report, may be purchased using the coupon
in this report or online at www.wfs.org/backiss.htm.
As always, your feedback is welcome. Please e-mail
your comments to [email protected].
THE EDITORS

INSIDE OUTLOOK
Business and Economics............... 2 Information Society......................... 6 OUTLOOK EXTRAS:
Energy............................................ 2 Lifestyles and Values...................... 7 ◆ Extreme Measures for the
Environment.............................. 3
Environment and Resources.......... 3 Science and Technology................. 8
◆ Wild Cards................................. 5
Government.................................... 4 Work and Careers.......................... 8 ◆ Algae Futures............................ 7
Habitats.......................................... 4 World Affairs................................... 9 ◆ Jobs for Tomorrow..................... 9
Health and Medicine....................... 5

©2009 World Future Society • 7910 Woodmont Avenue, Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814, U.S.A. • All rights reserved. Printed in U.S.A.
OUTLOOK 2010
BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS ENERGY
l Future workers will l Ammonia may become
earn the same any- the fuel of choice for
where in the world. cars by 2020. As a candi-
Companies will likely date source for hydrogen
cast broader nets in hir- used in fuel cells, ammonia
ing. European firms, for (comprising one nitrogen
instance, are increas- and three hydrogen atoms)
ingly strained to find is plentiful, easier to liq- BEN MILLS / FORESIGHT INSTITUTE

qualified job applicants, uefy than methane, and emits nitrogen rather than car-
according to Karlheinz bon, thus having fewer negative impacts on the cli-
Steinmueller, scientific PHOTODISC mate.  — J. Storrs Hall, “Ammonia, the Fuel of the Future,”
director of Z_punkt Gmbh, The Foresight Company. So Sep-Oct 2009, p. 10
a worker would earn the same money in Australia,
­Sweden, and Japan, Steinmueller believes.  — “Seeing the l Engines running on compressed air may cut en-
Future Through New Eyes,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 56 ergy costs. Scientists at Sandia National Laboratories
say that compressed air energy storage facilities (CAES)
l Medical tourism could be a boon for global health could help relieve the world’s energy woes. The air
care, already a $40-billion business with 780 million would be driven into the underground geological for-
patients. Michael Zey, author of Ageless Nation, says mations during low-demand times. Several U.S. utilities
that a $400,000 bone marrow transplant in the United are considering building CAES.  — Tomorrow in Brief,
States would cost only $30,000 in India. “When you Nov-Dec 2008, p. 2
have international competition from more affordable
hospitals in one country, it’s likely to impact what hos- l The next big trend in car design will be the solar
pitals in another country would charge,” says Zey.   roof. Solar-powered cars never really caught on, but so-
— “Seeing the Future Through New Eyes,” Nov-Dec 2008, lar cells on the tops of cars, working in conjunction with
p. 57 fuel cells, may be the next big thing to hit the automo-
tive showroom. Already the Volkswagen Space-Up Blue
l The future smells like marketing. Aromas travel di- concept car, the independently manufactured Aptera,
rectly to the brain’s emotional centers, according to sci- and the Fisker Karma feature optional solar panels on
entists. Perceptions registered by other centers travel the roofs of the vehicles working with, or in the place of,
through interpretive brain centers first and then arrive lithium-ion batteries.  — Ken Harris, Feedback, Nov-Dec,
at the emotional centers. “Our relatively recent under- 2008, p. 4
standing of the prominence and influence of scent in our
lives is rapidly changing the paradigm of how we mar- l Your lights may run on trash. Bacteria could con-
ket, sell, and deliver products and services to consum- vert trash into hydrogen fuel if scientists at the Univer-
ers,” says C. Russell Brumfield, author of Whiff.   sity of Birmingham have their way. Under certain cir-
— World Trends & Forecasts, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 9 cumstances, microorganisms can release hydrogen into
the environment. According to futurist Garry Golden,
l Runaway inflation could lead to barter econo- the 170 million tons of garbage that the United States
mies. In Zimbabwe, the inflation rate has climbed more currently incinerates or sends to landfills each year
than 2 million percent, causing Zimbabweans to use could potentially provide about 2.4% of the nation’s en-
gasoline coupons as a makeshift currency. Similar barter ergy needs, or 93.9 billion kilowatts.  — World Trends &
schemes may be expected in other nations if hyperinfla- Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2009, p. 18
tion takes hold.  — Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 2 DONNA COVENEY, MIT / COURTESY OF NSF
l Practical, affordable 
l The world’s lender nations must learn to borrow. — and colorful — solar
The world economy is out of balance, according to econ- energy could be on
omist Martin Wolf. If the global community wants to the market within
avoid future recessions, it will have to move from hav- three years. Most
ing a few large-scale debtor nations toward having an large-scale solar-power
equilateral flow of capital. The United States will have operations use rotating
to borrow less, while other nations should become open mirrors to follow the
to more U.S. loans.  — World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr path of the sun and channel it into solar cells. An MIT
2009, p. 7 team believes they’ve found a more efficient solution:
dyed windows. The dye particles focus the light to the

2 OUTLOOK 2010
 Outlook Extra: Extreme Measures to Save the Environment?

Radical methods may be the only way to prevent the Atmospheric physicist John Latham and engineer
worst effects of global climate change, according to Stephen Salter offer a more-extreme technology to help
growing numbers of futurists. reverse the warming trends: a “cloud-seeding” ma-
chine that would blast seawater droplets into the atmo-
For example, saving species whose habitats have be- sphere and cause clouds to whiten, which would cause
come uninhabitable may require hands-on approaches them to reflect more sunlight back into space. With less
such as direct relocation. Natural evolution doesn’t al- sunlight hitting the surface, Latham and Salter hope,
low enough time for some fragile species to adapt to the earth’s climate could stabilize long enough for us
environmental changes, so some scientists are creating to find a clean source for most of our energy needs. 
guidelines for managed relocation of species. — World — Patrick Tucker, “Saving the Planet, One Cloud at a
Trends & Forecasts, Sep-Oct 2009, p. 7 Time,” Mar-Apr 2009, p. 68

Reversing climate change itself has inspired poten- Geoengineering may be inevitable. Even if humans
tial megascale “geoengineering” projects such as send- could instantly reduce all greenhouse gas emissions,
ing space mirrors into orbit, sequestering carbon in the global temperatures would continue to increase for the
ground in biomass charcoal, and increasing the next 20–30 years, triggering feedback loops and more
amount of carbon that the ocean can absorb by forcing warming. — Jamais Cascio, author of Hacking the Earth,
plankton blooms in the seas. — Jamais Cascio, “Last Re- reviewed by Bob Olson, July-Aug 2009, p. 51
sort Solutions to Global Warming,” May-June 2009, p. 8

edges of the windows where it’s concentrated. Less temperature could easily increase as much as 14˚C.
semiconducting material is needed to harvest energy Aside from flooding, other potential problems from ris-
there, and the solar cell stays cooler, negating the need ing sea levels include beach erosion, loss of wetlands,
for elaborate cooling systems.  — World Trends & Fore- and increased salinity of estuaries.  — “Seeing the Future
casts, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 8 Through New Eyes,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 59; Tomorrow in
Brief, July-Aug 2009, p. 2
l Powered by sea water. Affordable and reliable
electricity from the ocean might be possible with the l African elephants
­VIVACE, a new machine built by University of Michigan may become extinct
engineer Michael Bernitsas. This system, which works by 2020. The African
by creating vortices in ocean water and capturing their elephant population is
power, has the added benefit of posing less risk to ma- now less than 470,000,
rine life than present-day dams and water turbines.   down from more than
— Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2009, p. 2 1 million when ivory
trading was first
l No more oil to export? The five nations responsible banned in the late
for half the world’s oil supply — Iran, Norway, Russia, 1980s. But poaching
Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates — are pro- continues, and the
jected to be near net-zero exports — i.e., no more oil to death rate for the re-
sell — by 2031. Oil exports from all oil-producing na- maining elephants has PHOTODISC
tions are currently declining by 2.5% a year. Importing surpassed 8% per year, according to University of Wash-
nations should expect this decline to continue and pre- ington biology professor Samuel Wasser.  — Tomorrow in
pare now for the day when this highly sought commod- Brief, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 2
ity is no longer on the market.  — Chris Nelder, “Oil Ex-
ports May Soon Dry Up,” Mar-Apr 2009, p. 6 l Iceless Arctic summers will be the norm by 2040.
The ice extent in the ocean will shrink to 1 million
square kilometers (620,000 square miles) from 4.6 mil-
ENVIRONMENT AND RESOURCES lion square kilometers today. The new projection, from
climate watchers at the University of Washington and
l The oceans may rise 75 meters (246 feet) by the NOAA, pushes forward previous climate forecasts for
end of the century, putting coastal cities like New this phenomenon by 60 years.  — World Trends & Fore-
York at risk. Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist at the casts, July-Aug 2009, p. 14
NASA Langley Research Center, predicts that the earth’s

OUTLOOK 2010 3
OUTLOOK 2010
l One rare greenhouse gas is becoming more com- tion may be forced to enact price controls.  — Peter Schiff,
mon. Solar energy has one environmental downside, ac- quoted in “Assessing Global Trends for 2025,” July-Aug
cording to University of California–San Diego geochem- 2009, p. 33
istry professor Ray Weiss: It is a source of nitrogen
trifluoride, or NF3, a greenhouse gas 17,000 times more
effective than carbon dioxide at trapping atmospheric HABITATS
heat. Atmospheric NF3 has been increasing by 11% a PHOTOS.COM
year, due to its widespread use in the production of l Suburbanites
­solar cells, LCD televisions, and computer circuits.   will feel economic
— World Trends & Forecasts, Mar-Apr 2009, p. 10 downturns hard-
est. In hard eco-
l Resource scarcity will likely cause vital commod- nomic times, sub-
ities to become more expensive. The World Resources urbanites may feel
Institute refers to this as ecoflation and warns that com- especially removed
panies could see profits fall drastically if they fail to de- from essential city
velop strategies that deal with the environmental costs services. They may
of doing business.  — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2009, p. not know how to
2 find the nearest
clinic or food cen-
ter. A new study
GOVERNMENT from the Univer-
sity of Illinois
l Small governments will eclipse big governments shows that the number of poor people moving to the
as a threat to privacy/liberty. According to U.S. Cen- suburbs has been increasing since 1990 even as many
sus Bureau statistics, there are close to 90,000 local gov- suburban townships have reduced or eliminated ser-
ernments in the United States (school districts, special vices.  — Tomorrow in Brief, July-Aug 2009, p. 2
districts, municipalities, and townships), each of which
may find ways to exert influence over individuals in l Improved urban design could create not only
ways that distant big government never could.  — World healthier environments, but also healthier inhabi­
Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2009, p. 8 tants. As city populations grow around the world, mod-
els for improving the quality of life will be based on in-
l Power and influence will shift away from the tegrating natural landscape within the city (e.g.,
United States and toward Asia by 2025. The National community gardens), thus reducing the negative effects
Intelligence Council forecasts that U.S. influence will of high-density dwellings.  — Cliff Moughtin et al., authors
wane in the next two decades as China, Russia, and of Urban Design, reviewed by Aaron M. Cohen, Sep-Oct
other Asian countries accumulate more power and 2009, p. 54
wealth. China GDP is projected to average 7% for 2009,
as opposed to flat yearly growth for the United States.   l The number of artificial islands will increase,
— Patrick Tucker, “Assessing Global Trends for 2025,” some as extensions of existing countries, others to
July-Aug 2009, p. 30 create new micronations. Currently, the most techno-
logically advanced artificial island projects are found in
l Consumption of goods in the United States will Dubai. However, a few farsighted developers have ex-
return to historically normal levels as the millennial perimented with accelerating coral growth to build arti-
generation comes of age. While the short-term fore- ficial reefs and islands in mid-ocean and other methods
cast for the consumer-led U.S. economy is slow-to-flat of creating new land.  — McKinley Conway, “The Case for
growth, normal consumption patterns should reemerge Micronations and Artificial Islands,” May-June 2009, p. 31
as more of the millennial generation exits college, enters PETIT ST. VINCENT
the workforce, and develops the appetite for, and capac- l Artificial-island
ity to, purchase goods.  — Elaine Kamarck, quoted in “As- micronations will
sessing Global Trends for 2025,” July-Aug 2009, p. 33 dramatically shift
the face of global
l The United States will likely experience hyperin- politics. New forms
flation, resulting in social upheavals. When the U.S. of government and
government can’t sell U.S. debt to anyone but its own unusual political
Federal Reserve banks, hyperinflation will destroy the models will begin to
U.S. bond market, the price for goods and services emerge, including
across the country will accelerate, and the administra- corporate nation-

4 OUTLOOK 2010
states, religious states, tax-free zones, single-function
countries, cause-related countries, and even rental na- Outlook Extra: Wild Cards
tion-states, where organizations can “rent a country” for
a year or two to test a specific project.  — Thomas Frey, Wild cards are high-impact, low-probability events that would
“New Nation Predictions,” May-June 2009, p. 35 have dramatic consequences (for better or for worse) if they ac-
C.G. WAGNER
tually occurred. Here is a short selection of reader-submitted
wild cards, so think about how best to prepare for them.

l Artificial intelligence displaces service workers, starting

with service employees working from a distance rather than
hands-on. Such a change could lead to massive layoffs, forced
early retirements, and substantial reduction in service jobs.

l The food-supply chain is disrupted. An interruption in the

global food-supply system could have devastating conse-
quences, eliminating a large percentage of available foods while
driving costs up on the remaining options. Having readily
available local alternatives that enable us to bypass the central-
l Future cities could be car-free. Cities around the ized industrial agriculture chain would be one way to offset
world are employing car taxes, innovative urban design, such a tragedy.
and new alternative transportation plans to decrease car
traffic. Highly populated Singapore mandates that cars l Global cooling occurs. Conventional climate models pro­
carry electronic sensors and then charges the drivers ev- ject only warmer temperatures, but new research based on
ery time they enter the city. The mayor of Paris hopes to wind patterns over the oceans indicates the possible emergence
cut traffic in his city 40% by 2020 through a city-spon- of a rapid mini Ice Age in the next few years. This would raise
sored bicycle-rental program.  — Lester R. Brown, “Cities havoc with agriculture and economies, and result in worldwide
Battle Auto Dominance,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 10 social and political upheaval.

l Intelligent alien life is confirmed. Declassified information

HEALTH AND MEDICINE reveals reports of alien species that have made contact with
Earth. Scientific evidence emerges as well. The presence of alien
l Devices that life would have profound effects on humanity.
monitor your
health will up- — “Wild Cards in Our Future,” May-June 2009, pp. 18-24
load data about
your activities
to the Internet.
l Nanotechnology will allow us to fix our ailing or-
A small device
gans from the inside out. Nanotechnology, or the ma-
called FitBit
nipulation of objects smaller than a billionth of a meter
tracks how fast
in size, will allow us to repair sick cells inside our bod-
you’re walking,
ies, reboot our brains, and even reanimate dead tissue,
your heart rate,
according to cryonics advocates.  — David Gelles, “Immor-
even how well
tality 2.0,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 39
you’re sleeping
and then up-
l Alternative medicine will become mainstream.
loads that infor-
Rising numbers of patients are supplementing — or re-
mation directly COURTESY OF FITBIT placing — their conventional medical treatments with
to a publicly viewable
herbal supplements, meditation, yoga, and other forms
database. The idea may
of “alternative” healing. Hospitals are listening — more
ring of Orwell, but tech-
than 37% of U.S. hospitals now integrate complemen-
nology watchers like
tary and alternative services with conventional proce-
Tim O’Reilly forecast
dures.  — Tomorrow in Brief, Mar-Apr 2009, p. 2
that the most interesting
computer applications
l People will improve mental health through video
in the years ahead will
games. If you suffer from low self-esteem, reprogram-
involve sensors.  
ming yourself through video-game play may come to
— World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2009, p. 9

OUTLOOK 2010 5
OUTLOOK 2010
the rescue. A set of online games developed by McGill Readily accessible data about places and objects, cou-
University psychologist Mark Baldwin helps the brain pled with future IT advances, will create a more sophis-
form more positive patterns of thought. The games are ticated digital world that mirrors our own.  — Jamais
based on neuroscience research showing the effects of ­Cascio, “The Singularity Needs You,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 25
social rejection and acceptance on the physical brain.  
— World Trends & Forecasts, Jan-Feb 2009, p. 9 l Lifelogging technologies will ensure that every
moment of existence is recorded. New systems to re-
l Your doctor will give you constant, online check- cord the life histories of objects and users will enhance
ups. Faster Internet speeds will allow doctors to moni- observations, recall, and communication. One example
tor their patients around the clock in their patients’ is a Georgia Institute of Technology “smart home,”
homes. The Outpatient Health Monitoring System uses which watches you cook so you don’t miss a step, moni-
wireless sensors to constantly monitor asthma patients tors your prescription drugs for you, and alerts your
and check environmental factors in the patients’ home, loved ones and medical professionals if you have an ac-
like the presence of allergens, pollution, or humidity.   cident. Young people will get used to being constantly
— World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2009, p. 13 on display in what might be called the participatory
panopticon.  — Jamais Cascio, “The Singularity Needs You,”
l The Internet will put hard-to-reach medical spe- Nov-Dec 2008, p. 25
cialists in the palm of your hand (or in your chest).
Benjamin Berg, a Hawaiian heart doctor, dictated a com- l Japan and its neighbors will dominate the next
plicated heart surgery over an Internet feed for a man phase in Internet growth. Median download speed in
3,500 miles away in Guam. Berg monitored every move the United States was 5 megabits per second (Mbps) in
and heartbeat of the patient via sensors embedded in 2007. Median speeds were 49 Mbps in South Korea and
the catheter that had been inserted into the patient’s 63 Mbps in Japan. Experts contend that Japan and its
heart.  — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2009, p. 13 neighbors have positioned themselves to be the first
states to reap the benefits of the broadband era: eco-
l New artificial skin could be produced rapidly us- nomic growth, increased productivity, and technological
ing factorylike techniques. Tissue engineering may innovation.  — World Trends & Forecasts, July-Aug 2009, p.
help produce artificial skin, cartilage, and other body 13
parts quickly and in large quantities, thanks to research
at Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute for Interfacial Engi- l As the number of mobile phones increases, new
neering and Biology. The result could mean improved programs and services will help us make sense of
treatment for burn victims using skin grown in laborato- our environment. Globally, mobile phone penetration is
ries, as well as the creation of tissue that is suitable for expected to reach 75% by 2011. As mobile phones re-
chemical testing, thus avoiding experiments on ani- place the PC as the primary device for getting online,
mals.  — Tomorrow in Brief, May-June 2009, p. 2 new services such as Whrrl, Buddycloud, Brightkite,
and Loopt will enable users to get more real-time infor-
mation about their immediate environment.  — Erica
INFORMATION SOCIETY ­Orange, “Mining Information from the Data Clouds,” July-
Aug 2009, p. 17
l Your phone will tell you when you’re in love. Mo-
bile devices are enabling new spontaneous connections l With your eyeglasses as a dashboard, more data
in real-world settings, including love connections. One will be available at a glance. An interactive chip in the
day soon, your phone will play matchmaker, recom- lens will display data and respond to your commands.
mending that you introduce yourself to someone nearby Images will actually be projected onto your retina, so
whose online profile displays tastes or passions similar they will appear several feet in front of you instead of
to yours. Impossible? An iPhone application called Ser- on the lens.  — Tomorrow in Brief, Sep-Oct 2009, p. 2
endipity is currently being commercialized by MIT re-
searchers.  — Erica Orange, “Mining Information from the l The number of U.S. jobs filled by telecommuters
Data Clouds,” July-Aug 2009, p. 17 could grow nearly fourfold to 19 million by 2012.
Wider broadband will bring the office home, giving
l Sensors, digital maps, and new information tech- workers and employers more flexibility. Research shows
nology breakthroughs will enhance our view of ev- that if all Americans improved their broadband connec-
eryday reality. Google Earth pictures of a given neigh- tion, allowing for more telecommuting, the result would
borhood, combined with real-time RFID data of what be a 4% reduction in carbon-dioxide emissions, $5 bil-
the people in that neighborhood are buying, could re- lion saved in lower road expenditures, and 1.5 billion
veal important details of that neighborhood: the num- commute hours recaptured.  — World Trends & Forecasts,
bers of smokers, young people, parents with infants, etc. July-Aug 2009, p. 13

6 OUTLOOK 2010
 WARREN GRETZ / NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY PAT CORKERY / NREL

Outlook Extra: Algae Futures

Futurists’ attention is increas-

ingly being drawn to the slimy
world of microalgae. Here’s why:

Algae might be the antidote to

our dependence on oil. These mi-
croorganisms can potentially pro-
duce 5,000 gallons of fuel per acre, modern diesel engine. Even better,
which could meet perhaps 30%– algae require only a fraction of the
60% of U.S. oil needs, according to land area of biofuel-producing crops. JACK DEMPSEY / NREL
Dennis Bushnell, chief scientist at An added benefit is the cleansing
the NASA Langley Research Cen- power of algae. Power plants that
ter, speaking at the World Future plan to filter their emissions via ex-
Society’s 2008 conference. — “Seeing pensive carbon-sequestration sys-
the Future Through New Eyes,” Nov- tems might consider growing algae
Dec 2008, p. 59 instead. According to the DOE re-
searchers, algae pond cultures con-
According to researchers at a De- sume more than 90% of carbon di-
partment of Energy plant in New oxide in the pond water, as well as
Mexico, single-celled microalgae, water-based nitrogen oxide, sulfur
grown in pond water, produce a dioxide, and some heavy metals.
biofuel that is lead-free and biode- Growing algae farms next to ing new revenue from the sale of
gradable, emits two-thirds less car- power plants could save millions of algae-based biofuels. — Robert
bon dioxide and other pollutants dollars now spent on pollution- McIntyre, “Algae’s Powerful Future,”
than gasoline, and can run any control equipment, while also creat- Mar-Apr 2009, p. 25

LIFESTYLES AND VALUES 5,000. University of Georgia gerontologist Leonard Poon

looked at common threads among the centenarians he
l Young people will read more, and the old will play interviewed: They exercised regularly, ate breakfast
more video games. The 2007 American Time Use Sur- daily, consumed carotenoids and Vitamin A in large
vey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed some amounts, and didn’t smoke.  — World Trends & Forecasts,
surprising findings. In 2007, adults aged 75 and older Nov-Dec 2008, p. 12
spent nearly twice as much time playing video games
(about 20 minutes) as they did in 2006. Teens aged 15–19 l Saudi school programs are educating students
spent twice as much time reading as they did before about the dangers of terrorism. These programs are
(about 14 minutes) and less time using a computer for designed to raise awareness in much the same way that
games or casual surfing.  — World Trends & Forecasts, American school programs warn students about the
Nov-Dec 2008, p. 14 dangers of using recreational drugs. Students are en-
couraged to participate in essay contests and art compe-
l Only two-thirds of American households will own titions on topics related to the dangers of extremism,
cars in the decades ahead, down from seven- and the government also supports other youth activi-
eighths today. In the post–Great Recession era, most ties, including organized sports and athletic events.
new housing will be built in conjunction with high-den- Such endeavors can lure children away from the ideo-
sity, mixed-use, and other in-fill developments clustered logical summer camps and religious retreats run by ex-
around rail-transit stations throughout an increasingly tremist groups.  — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June
urbanized nation.  — David Pearce Snyder, “A Rendezvous 2009, p. 12
with Austerity,” July-Aug 2009, p. 44
l Neuroscience and virtual reality will yield pro-
l The population boom to watch now: centenari- found new insights into the nature of right and
ans. For the first time in history, adults aged 100 or wrong. Technologies like functional magnetic resonance
older are a fast-growing population group. Most indus- imaging (fMRI) are already exposing the neurological
trialized countries now average one centenarian per roots of race bias and deception. In the future, moral sci-
10,000 residents, but the figure is moving toward one in ence will converge with virtual reality, allowing people

OUTLOOK 2010 7
OUTLOOK 2010
to role-play their reactions to different moral situations, ­ asselov, an astronomer and director of Harvard Uni-
S
yielding individuals new opportunities to discover the versity’s Origins of Life Initiative.  — Gregory Georgiou,
roots of their decision-making processes.  — Patrick “The Real Life Search for E.T. Heats Up,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 20
Tucker, “Reinventing Morality,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 24
l At home, 3-D printers will alter online shopping
l Beer guzzling will decline. Alcohol consumption in from selling stuff to selling designs for stuff. Christ-
the United States has dropped over the past 50 years, mas shoppers in 2024 will buy printable files that down-
led by beer consumption, according to a team of re- load directly to 3-D printers in their homes. Amazon
searchers from the Boston University School of Medi- and other online retailers will also sell the “fabbers”
cine. The researchers attribute the long-term decline to and the cartridges of raw materials needed to print
growing public awareness of the ill effects of heavy things.  — Thomas A. Easton, “The Design Economy,” Jan-
drinking, which has been linked to cardiovascular and Feb 2009, p. 43
liver problems.  — Tomorrow in Brief, Nov-Dec 2008, p. 2
l Tomorrow’s inventors will spend their days writ-
ing descriptions of the problems they want to solve,
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY and then letting computers find the solutions. Inven-
tion programs like Gregory Hornby’s “evolutionary al-
l The era of brain-to-brain telepathy dawns. Neuro- gorithm” have been used to invent real-world objects,
scientist David Poeppel says that telepathic communica- such as a special space antenna, based entirely on engi-
tion between brains is possible, so long as “communica- neering specifications. Continued advances will increas-
tion” is understood to be electromagnetic signals and ingly rely on cross-fertilization between the fields of
not words. Technologies like magnetoencephalography, ­biology and computer science. As a result, we will de-
which pick up the various signals the brain sends out, velop not only software that can produce better inven-
could be used to pick up specific signals and convey tions but also inventions that are able to adapt to their
them. If you could train your brain to signal in Morse environments.  — Robert Plotkin, “The Automation of In-
code, sensors in a helmet could pick up the message and vention,” July-Aug 2009, p. 24
send it to another helmet.  — Patrick Tucker, “Reinventing
Morality,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 23
WORK AND CAREERS
l In the design economy of the future, people will
download and print their own products, including l Talent shortages will undermine economic recov-
auto parts, jewelry, and even the kitchen sink. Rapid ery. As the global economy becomes more dependent on
prototyping, or 3-D printing, and devices like the technology, workers will need more proficiency in sci-
­RepRap self-reproducing printer are allowing people to ence, technology, engineering, or mathematically based
design, customize, and print objects from their home (STEM) jobs. To produce these talented workers, the U.S.
computers. In the future, cheaper versions of these de- education system needs to work with community-based
vices could disrupt manufacturing business models, re- organizations and NGOs to improve training for tomor-
sulting in far cheaper products individually tailored to row’s careers.  — Edward Gordon, “The Global Talent Cri-
every customer’s desire.  — Thomas A. Easton, “The De- sis,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 38
sign Economy,” Jan-Feb 2009, p. 43
MIT HAYSTACK OBSERVATORY
l Professions will become hyperspecialized. As
l The existence professional and academic fields become more and
of extraterrestrial more specialized, the current subspecialization trend
life will be con- may lead to hyperspecialization. For example, a surgeon
firmed or conclu- may only repair knees injured during the playing of
sively denied football. There are already significant knowledge gaps
within a genera- and communication difficulties between specialties and
tion. New space subspecialties, and these divides will only become
missions and ad- larger and more difficult to surmount.  — Bruce L. Tow
vanced computer and David A. Gilliam, “Synthesis: An Interdisciplinary Dis-
technology could cipline,” May-June 2009, p. 43
confirm the existence of extraterrestrials soon. Scientists
using NASA’s Spitzer Space Telescope have found that l U.S. senior citizens are postponing retirement
at least 20% — and perhaps as many as 60% — of Sun- due to financial concerns. Even before the recession,
like stars could have rocky planets. Among the more large numbers of baby boomers and pre-baby boomers
than 300 extra-solar worlds already discovered, proba- who had not actually saved enough for retirement were
bly one has some form of life, according to Dimitar unexpectedly compelled to return to the labor force.

8 OUTLOOK 2010
 India and China will increase in relative terms.  — Newt
Outlook Extra: Jobs for Tomorrow Gingrich, quoted in “Assessing Global Trends for 2025,”
July-Aug 2009, p. 31
Hottest jobs for 2016:
- Network systems and data communications ana- l More international organizations will participate
lysts (53.4% more U.S. employees than in 2006) in cross-border activities to monitor digital fund
- Personal and home care aides (up 50.6%) transfers. Electronic funds-transfer systems handle
more than $6 trillion in wire transfers daily, but lax over-
- Home health aides (up 48.7%) sight makes such systems ripe for money-laundering ac-
- Computer software engineer (up 44.6%) tivities. The growing speed and interconnectivity of dig-
- Veterinary technologist/technician (up 41.0%). ital transactions adds to the difficulty of tracing money
transfers, particularly across borders.  — Stephen Aguilar-
Coldest jobs for 2016: Millan, Joan E. Foltz, John Jackson, and Amy Oberg, “The
- Photographic processing machine operator Globalization of Crime,” Nov-Dec 2008, p. 48
(49.8% fewer U.S. employees than in 2006)
l A broad conflict between India and Pakistan
- File clerk (down 41.3%)
could result in nuclear war. This development, in turn,
- Sewing machine operator (down 27.2%) would force other nations to align themselves with ex-
- Electrical and electronic equipment assembler isting nuclear powers for protection. Experts such as
(down 26.8%) former House Speaker Newt Gingrich point out that the
- Computer operator (down 24.7%). 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai escalated tensions con-
siderably between the nations.  — Patrick Tucker, “Assess-
 — “U.S. Employment Ups and Downs, 2006-2016,”
ing Global Trends for 2025,” July-Aug 2009, p. 31
Sep-Oct 2009, p. 30
l China will become the world’s largest economy,
based on GDP, prior to 2025. The United States will
Now, many more may opt to simply stay in their fall behind Japan and will no longer be in the top 20
jobs.  — World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2009, p. 16 countries in terms of per capita GDP. China will shift
from an export economy to consumer-driven economy,
l The recession could cause the U.S. labor force to and Japan will shift most of its export trade away from
grow. An increase in the U.S. labor force means that more the United States to China.  — Peter Schiff, quoted in “As-
people will be competing for jobs in the short term, add- sessing Global Trends for 2025,” July-Aug 2009, p. 35
ing to stress on U.S. job seekers. Increased competition
also means that the U.S. labor force will become more ef- l Saudi Arabia’s output of oil may plateau in 2020,
ficient as vacancies are filled by higher caliber employees.   raising grave concern about unemployment. If the
— World Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2009, p. 16 Saudis and other oil-producing countries fail to diversify
their economies, they will struggle to house, feed, edu-
cate, and employ future generations.  — Roger ­Howard,
WORLD AFFAIRS “Peak Oil and Strategic Resource Wars,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 19

l Terrorism might be thwarted with rehab. Jihadist l The prospect of peak oil could lead producer
rehabilitation programs have sprung up in nations from countries to become more insular, guarding their
Saudi Arabia to Singapore. Providing psychiatric and re- dwindling resources from outside influences. But it
ligious counseling to imprisoned jihadists is becoming a could also lead these countries’ governments to become
standard part of counterterrorism efforts. Because these more transparent and democratic, as corruption will be-
methods address the underlying intellectual and ideo- come intolerable to citizens.  — Roger Howard, “Peak Oil
logical factors of extremism, they may ultimately prove and Strategic Resource Wars,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 20
more effective than strong-arm approaches.  — World
Trends & Forecasts, May-June 2009, p. 12 l Information warfare based on disruption rather
than destruction will be a significant component of
l China, Russia, and other nations will rise to chal- all future wars. Vital infrastructure systems ranging
lenge U.S. status as sole superpower. The influence from energy to transportation are increasingly intercon-
and power of the United States may decline in the next nected, creating more points of entry for intruders. As
decade and a half, but this will not be a decline in eco- many as 120 governments are already pursuing infor-
nomic, political, or military strength. Rather than the mation warfare programs.  — Marvin J. Cetron and Owen
United States enjoying the role of the world’s lone Davies, “World War 3.0: Ten Critical Trends for Cybersecu-
­superpower, the influence of other countries such as rity,” Sep-Oct 2009, p. 40

OUTLOOK 2010 9
 Tomorrow Is Built Today
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