Yara International ASA

2018 second quarter

results
17 July 2018
IR – 17 July 2018
2
Safe operations is our first priority

5
TRI (Total recordable injuries 12-month rolling)1
4.5

1.4

0
Jan'16 Jun'18

1) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours.

IR – 17 July 2018
3
 Market fundamentals currently challenging, but positive
developments towards 2019 on grain stocks and urea supply
Grain prices rising slowly, and Urea supply increases high in Strong Asian demand drives
stocks are falling 2018, falling thereafter LNG prices higher

Grain price index Global capacity additions ex China Million LNG imports
Index Days tonnes
200 70 6.7 140

121.3

4.5 106.2
Trend
consumption
growth

2.6 2.5

24.2 24.0

100 40 0
1/2015 1/2017 1/2019 2017 2018 2019 2020 Asia Europe
Grains Price Index Capacity growth Supply increase 1H 2017 1H 2018
Grain stocks-to-use ex. China

IR – 17 July 2018
4
 Yara’s 2Q results reflect the business environment where increased
deliveries and prices are offset by higher gas costs
Increased deliveries in Europe Global urea price rebound in Tight LNG market drives
following late spring June, but limited impact on 2Q European gas prices higher

Million
tons N European industry deliveries Urea price development Yara European natural gas cost
USD/
+6% USD/t MMBtu
2
400 9 8.1
7.7 Yara Europe
Imports
6.5 6.6
7.7
7.2 TTF
5.6 5.7
300 (1-month
6.1 lag)
5.7
5.3 5.2

200
Domestic
Urea fob Black Sea
Urea prilled fob China
Urea granular fob Egypt
Urea inland proxy China 0
0 100
Jul-16 Jun-18 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18
2Q17 2Q18

IR – 17 July 2018
5
Increased deliveries in all main markets except Brazil, where truck
strike impacts negatively
Kilotons

+11%

7,331 2Q17 2Q18

6,604
+18%

-19%
2,413
2,039 2,052
1,671

1,076 1,045
961
586 664 711
414
302

Yara Europe Brazil North Asia Latin Africa

America America

IR – 17 July 2018
6
 European market nitrate prices up 4%;
Yara realized NPK prices up 7%
Nitrogen upgrading margins1
USD/t (monthly publication prices) Yara NPK premium over blend1
USD/t
500 +4% 500
+7%

Urea Egypt
CFR proxy CAN
(46% N) Weighted average global
premium above blend cost

Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany

Ammonia CFR
(46% N) Urea, CIF inland Germany

DAP, CIF inland Germany

Yara EU gas cost *20

MOP, CIF inland Germany
0 0
2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18
Upgrading margin from gas to 1) Yara NPK (average grade 19-10-13) net of transport and handling
nitrates in 46% N (USD/t):
250 213
cost., compared with nitrate, urea, DAP and MOP publication prices
1) All prices in urea equivalents, with 1 month time lag Source: Fertilizer Market Publications

IR – 17 July 2018
7
 Yara Improvement Program delivering ahead of plan
Start: 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 End: 2020

Today

EBITDA Benefits of 310 MUSD delivered

 Yara Productivity System rolled out to 21 out of 29 sites.

 Good reliability improvements in NPK production
 Good improvements in procurement initiatives

310

0 500

IR – 17 July 2018
8
Yara Improvement Program accounts for ~20% of L12M EBITDA

MUSD
+24%  L12M earnings impacted by lower fertilizer
prices and higher natural gas cost (~900
260 MUSD)

 Yara Improvement Program is (1) a driver of

improved long-term Yara performance and (2)
1,355
a response to challenging market conditions
1,095

 Measured at L12M margins and prices, the

equivalent number is approximately 260
MUSD. This represents almost 20% of Yara
L12M EBITDA YIP L12M EBITDA L12M EBITDA excluding special items.
excl. special excl. special items
items and YIP

IR – 17 July 2018
9
Earnings per share impacted by higher energy cost and currency
translation loss x.xx
EPS excluding currency and
special items

EBITDA Earnings per share

Negative result includes a
currency translation loss of
USD millions USD 302 million, a non-cash
effect mainly resulting from a
strengthening US dollar through
0.77 the quarter, which is
480 0.59 fundamentally positive for Yara
395 1.35
359 350 377
338 347
296 321
0.47
664 0.42 0.41 0.42
0.34

363 381 370 0.73

352 312
0.19
0.17
303 296 0.36
242 0.30 0.33 0.38 0.42

-0.14
2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18

-0.77
Average number of shares for 2Q 2018: 273.2 million (2Q 2017: 273.2 million).

IR – 17 July 2018
10
 EBITDA 5% lower YoY as higher sales prices and deliveries were
more than offset by higher energy cost and a weaker US dollar
EBITDA, USD millions
-5%
20
86
74
338
14 321
12

EBITDA ex. SI Price/Margin Volume Energy costs Currency Other EBITDA ex. SI
2Q17 2Q18

IR – 17 July 2018
11
Higher natural gas cost expected for the next two quarters

Yara European natural gas cost Y-o-Y change in Yara gas cost
USD/
USD
MMBtu
millions
9.0 120

8.0 100
7.0
80
6.0
60
5.0 20
12 100
91
4.0 40 20 70

3.0 20 45 42 46
27
2.0 0
2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18
TTF (1-month lag) Yara Europe
EU/US actual EU/US estimate*
*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 10 July 2018
Pilbara actual
Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren

IR – 17 July 2018
12
 Yara investment activity peaked in first half 2018

Capex plan Net interest-bearing debt

+10%

Cost&capacity improvements
3.2
USD billions
M&A
Committed growth
0.2
Maintenance 2.9
2.3
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.7
1.6 -25%
0.2
0.2 1.3 1.3
0.0
0.6 1.0 0.2 1.0
0.6 0.2
0.4
0.1

0.8 0.7 0.7

0.7

2017 2018 1H18 2H18 2019 2020 Net debt Net Cash Dividends Investments Yara Net debt
Mar 18 operating earnings* received (net) dividend Jun 18
capital equity
change acc. Inv.
* Operating income plus depreciation and amortization, minus tax paid, net gain/(loss) on disposals, net interest expense and bank charges
IR – 17 July 2018
13
 Yara Improvement Program delivering ahead of plan
Start: 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 End: 2020

Today

Annual impact, USD million, vs. 2015 baseline, at 2015 margins

500
450
350
 The Yara Improvement Sustained 310
242
Program has so far delivered EBITDA
310 million US dollars of improvement 84
annual sustained benefits,
measured at 2015 margins
One-off
 The equivalent number using
2018 margins is ~300 million Benefits1 60 69
19 15 15 15
US dollars

500
 Improvements on Production 49
Cost 14 12 39 13
volume, Consumption factor 11
and Variable unit costs are on
or ahead of target 140
116 90
Investments 69
18 0
2016 2017 Q2 2018 2018 target 2019 target 2020 target

IR – 17 July 2018 1 One-off benefits are related to working capital improvements and sales of white certificates 14
 Steady growth in grain consumption, production expected to fall
short for the 2018/19 season
Grain consumption and production Days of consumption in stocks
Million tons Days
100
2,600
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
2,000 55
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18E 19F 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18E 19F

Consumption Production

Source: USDA July 2018

IR – 17 July 2018
15
Strong urea supply growth this year, but supply-demand balance
set to gradually improve after 2018
Global urea capacity additions excl. China (mill. tonnes)

India Iran USA Production

Russia Algeria Others
6.7

4.7 4.5
3.4 3% consumption growth
2.6 2.5 2.6
1.9
1.1

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Source: CRU June 2018 - CRU has removed Dangote Fertilizer, Nigeria (3 mill tons) from the medium-term forecast and shifted the project to 2023
IR – 17 July 2018
16
Yara’s solutions improve food production per hectare,
delivered through products with lower emissions per tonne
Yara crop nutrition practices enable farmers to Yara’s product mix has significantly lower
optimize application – and thus lower emissions emissions than the industry average

Yara Industry
kg CO2eq/kg N product
product mix product mix

Yara Nitrates1 7.6

~75% ~10%
Global
9.4
Nitrates2

• Precision farming promotes best agricultural practices

• Yara’s N-sensor, N-tester and water sensor help UAN 11.9 ~5% ~5%
optimize application rates and water use
• Yara’s solutions help farmers comply with
environmental legislation while supporting their Urea 13.9 ~10% ~50%
competitiveness
Production Application

IR – 17 July 2018 1. Assumed 15% lower application rates for nitrates, due to lower volatilization 17
2. Average emissions from production higher, partly driven by plants running without N2O catalysts
Yara’s mission and vision guides our strategy

Our Mission Our Vision

Responsibly feed A collaborative society;

the world and a world without hunger;
protect the planet. a planet respected.

IR – 17 July 2018
18
The Crop Nutrition
Leader Advance
Operational
We will grow responsible solutions to
farmers, industry and society, while Excellence
delivering superior return on capital

Create Drive
Scalable Innovative
Solutions Growth

IR – 17 July 2018
19
 Advance

Advance Operational excellence; Examples of strategic responses

Improved safety, increased savings

Safe operations is our first priority

5
TRI (Total recordable injuries 12-month rolling)1
4.5

1.4

0
Jan'16 Jun'18

1) TRI: Total recordable injuries, lost time (absence from work), restricted work and medical treatment cases per one million work hours.

IR – 17 July 2018
3

IR – 17 July 2018
20
 Examples of strategic responses
Create Scalable Solutions; Create

Closer collaboration with the Food Industry

Food Industry

Farmer

Crop

Product
Sell benefits of our
Market depth

Asset
solutions
Farmer centric
solutions and • Deliver required crop
Build crop tools quality to processor
and ensure reliable
solutions raw material supply to
Build product • Building Yara’s
food factories
reputation • Crop knowledge knowledge margin
Sell what we • Unlock superior value
• High quality • Product portfolio creation for farmers
produce • Application
products through food industry
• Place new capacity competence
• Viking ship brand
• Manage seasonality

Time

IR – 17 July 2018
21
 Examples of strategic responses
Precision fertilization made simple - atfarm Create

 10x10m precision application of fertilizer

 Quantitative recommendation “in only 5

clicks”

 Empowered by 20 years of Yara precision

fertilization R&D

 Benefits for farmers

- Higher yield
- Reduced waste
- Higher protein content

IR – 17 July 2018
22
 Examples of strategic responses
Drive Innovative Growth; Drive

Yara is delivering on its growth pipeline

1 Jan 1Q 2Q 4Q 1 Jan
3Q
2018 2019

Babrala (India)
Cubatao (Brazil) Sluiskil (NL)
Acquisition of urea plant and distribution
N and P production facility acquisition Revamp and urea+S expansion
assets
- 1.2 mt urea and approx 40 MUSD EBITDA - Adds approx. 210 ktpa and 30 MUSD
- 1.4 mtpa and approx. 60 MUSD EBITDA p.a.
p.a. EBITDA p.a.
- Strengthens production and industrial
- Provides footprint to accelerate premium - Improved product mix - from urea prills to
footprint in Brazil
product growth nitrates and urea+S

Freeport (US)
Porsgrunn (Norway) Köping (Sweden)
Hydrogen-based ammonia new-build JV
NPK and calcium nitrate expansion Nitric acid revamp and TAN expansion
with BASF (Yara 68%)
- Adds 250 ktpa and approx. 50 MUSD
- 550 ktpa and approx. 100 MUSD EBITDA - 90 ktpa and approx. 20 MUSD EBITDA p.a.
EBITDA p.a.
p.a. (Yara share) - Strong long-term fundamentals for civil
- Record nitric acid production in March (5,127
- Strengthens Yara’s global ammonia position explosives industry
tpd)

Salitre (Brazil)
Phosphate mine

- Adds approx. 1.1 mtpa SSP equivalents by

2020
- Limited earnings until chemical production
starts end 2019
EBITDA figures at 2015 prices except Cubatão which reflects business case prices

IR – 17 July 2018
23
Major improvement and growth investments in 2018; Drive

main earnings improvement from 2019 onwards1

Improvement and growth capex2 (BUSD) Improvement program EBITDA improvement3 (MUSD)
Committed expansions + M&A
1.5 1,100
900
0.1
500
450
500
Improvement program: 282
350 600
+ 350 MUSD cost improvement 124
242
450
150
+ 150 MUSD volume improvement: 40 40
0.9 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
0.1
-> 0.4 mill. tonnes ammonia
-> 0.7 mill. tonnes fertilizer
0.8

0.1
1.3
Committed expansions + M&A: Earnings improvement3 (USD per share)
+ 1.4 mill. tonnes ammonia
+ 4.7 mill. tonnes fertilizer 2.0
0.5
0.9 0.1 1.5
1.2
0.6
0.9
1.1
0.4 0.6
0.9
0.2 0.6 0.7
0.4
0.2
0.0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
1 Currency assumptions for 2018 onwards: USD/NOK 8,01, EUR/USD: 1.18 , USD/BRL: 3.83
2.Excluding maintenance capex on existing assets . Yara’s share of capex. Fully consolidated entities presented at 100% basis
3 Measured at 2015 conditions. Main average market prices: Ammonia fob Yuzhny 390 USD/t, Urea fob Yuzhny 275 USD/t, DAP fob Morocco 495 USD/t

IR – 17 July 2018
24
 Additional information

IR – 17 July 2018
 Yara has expected commodity nitrogen oversupply, and has
focused its growth pipeline on premium & industrial products
Growth focused on premium & industrial Expected start up Pipeline EBITDA (2015 prices, USDm)1

Uusikaupunki NPK 3Q 2016 190

160 180
Expand premium products Porsgrunn/Glomfjord CN/NPK 1Q 2018 40
sales and supply Sluiskil urea+S 3Q 2018
Rio Grande NPK/NPK blends 2H 2020 2018 2019 2020 2021

Expand commodity scale Freeport ammonia JV 2Q 2018 150 150 150

70
based on attractive full-cost
growth opportunities Babrala urea acquisition 1Q 2018
2018 2019 2020 2021

Pilbara – TAN 2Q 20172

Act on attractive 120
90 110
opportunities to grow Köping – TAN 3Q 2018 40

industrial sales and supply

Cubatão – N and P 2Q 2018 2018 2019 2020 2021

170 170

Structurally secure P and K mining 2Q18, chemical 4Q19 30

Galvani / Salitre 0
supply
2018 2019 2020 2021

Sum 150 430 610 620

1) Including Yara’s share of volume in equity accounted investees. Fully consolidated entities presented at 100% basis
2) Plant started up in 2Q 2017, but has suffered from technical difficulties and the site is currently undergoing a turnaround.

IR – 17 July 2018
26
Yara is delivering on its growth pipeline;
multiple plant expansions and M&A coming on stream in 2018
Production growth 2015 - 2020

Mill.tonnes (mt) Finished products Ammonia

25.1 9.2
0.5 0.2
0.8 0.5
Yara-operated plants 0.1
0.2
GrowHow UK (divested mid-2015) 1.2 0.7
Yara share of Qafco & Lifeco 0.4 7.7
0.2 0.3
1.2
20.6
0.3 0.3 0.2
1.1
1.6

18.7

6.4
5
Uusikaupunki TAN Babrala Por/Glo Cubatão Sluiskil Salitre 2 Rio Grande 3 20151 Pilbara4 Babrala Freeport Cubatão Est. 2020
20151 Köping Est. 2020
(3Q 2016) Pilbara (1Q 2018) (1Q 2018) (2Q 2018) (3Q 2018) (3Q 2018) (4Q (2Q 2020) (1Q 2018) (2Q 2018) (2Q 2018)
(2Q 2017) 2019)

1) Adjusted to normalized / 2016 turnaround level (0.7mt finished fertilizer and 0.2mt NH3) and regularity level (0.7mt finished fertilizer and 0.4mt NH3)
2) Salitre will reach 1.1 mill.tonnes in 2022
3) Rio Grande expansion also adds 1 million tonnes NPK blends by 2020
4) Including 100% ownership in Pilbara NH3 plant (not included in committed growth pipeline)
5) TAN Pilbara started up in 2Q 2017, but has suffered from technical difficulties and the site is currently undergoing a turnaround

IR – 17 July 2018
27
Improvement and growth investments; earnings and sensitivities

EBITDA improvement1 (MUSD) Improvement program: Impact2 of +100 USD/t price change
(USD/share)
1,100

900
500 0.09
450 0.06
500

282 350 600

124 450
242
150
40 40
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ammonia Urea

Growth: Impact2 of +100 USD/t price change (USD/share)

Earnings improvement1 (USD per share)
2.0

1.5
0.30
1.2
0.19
0.9
1.1 0.10
0.6
0.9
0.2 0.6 0.7
0.4 3
0.2 Ammonia Urea DAP
0.0
1 Measured at 2015 conditions. Main average market prices: Ammonia fob Yuzhny 390 USD/t, Urea fob
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Improvement program Yuzhny 275 USD/t, DAP fob Morocco 495 USD/t.
2 Improvement: 2020 numbers. Growth: At full capacity (2019 for urea and ammonia, 2020 for DAP).
Growth
3 Phosphate-driven price change, equivalent to 138 USD/t phosphate rock (72 bpl)

IR – 17 July 2018
28
Higher margins in Crop Nutrition and Industrial segment

EBITDA excluding special items

EBITDA
(USD millions)

180
163 166
153
101
118
63 95
54
44

Crop Nutrition Industrial Production

2Q17 2Q18

IR – 17 July 2018
29
Debt/equity ratio

Net interest-bearing debt / equity ratio (end of period)

0.35

0.30

0.25
0.22 0.22

0.17 0.18
0.15 0.16 0.17
0.13 0.14
0.13
0.11
0.08
0.06 0.06
0.05 0.06 0.06
0.01

-0.04

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

IR – 17 July 2018
30
 Lower upgrading margins to nitrates, premiums in line with last
year
Nitrogen upgrading margins1 European nitrate premium2
(monthly publication prices) (quarterly Yara realized)
USD/t USD/t
500 +4% 90

Urea Egypt
CFR proxy CAN
(46% N)

Ammonia CFR
(46% N)

Yara EU gas cost *20

0 0
2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18
Upgrading margin from gas to 2) Yara European realized nitrate prices (excl. sulphur grades) compared
nitrates in 46% N (USD/t):
250 213
with urea publication prices (Egypt CFR proxy) with
Source: Fertilizer Market Publications 1 month time lag. All numbers in USD per tonne of CAN equivalents.

IR – 17 July 2018
31
Solid commodity phosphate margins and compound NPK premiums

Phosphate upgrading margins NPK premium over blend1

USD/t USD/t
500 500

DAP FOB US Gulf

Weighted average global
premium above blend cost
Value above
raw material Nitrate premium, CIF inland Germany

Urea, CIF inland Germany

NH3, fob Black Sea *0.22

DAP, CIF inland Germany

Rock, fob North Africa *1.4

MOP, CIF inland Germany

0 0
2Q15 2Q18 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 4Q16 2Q17 4Q17 2Q18

1) Export NPK plants, average grade 19-10-13, net of transport

Source: Fertilizer Market Publications and handling cost.

IR – 17 July 2018
32
Energy cost

Yearly averages 2009 – 2015, quarterly averages for 2016-18 with forward prices* for 3Q18 and 4Q18.

11.0 11.4
10.7

10.5 9.1
9.2 9.4 8.1 8.2 8.5
7.6
8.1 7.1 6.5 6.6 7.8
6.6 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.4 8.0
6.6 5.7 6.5
6.9 6.4 5.6
5.0 4.9 5.3
4.6 5.7 5.2 5.5 6.2 6.2
5.4 5.9 6.1
4.7 5.7 5.5 5.3
4.8 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.7
4.4 4.4 4.3
4.0 4.0 4.1 3.8 4.0
3.7 3.5
2.8 3.0 3.0 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8
2.8 2.6 2.8
2.0 2.1

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18

US gas price (Henry Hub) Yara Global TTF day ahead (Zeebrugge 2009-2012) Yara Europe

*Dotted lines denote forward prices as of 10 July 2018

Source: Yara, World Bank, Argus/ICIS Heren
IR – 17 July 2018
33
 Increased ammonia and finished products production
Ammonia1 Finished fertilizer & industrial products1
Kilotons Kilotons
+13% +10%
2,200 5,500

Urea

Nitrates

NPK

CN
UAN
SSP
0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018

1) Including share of equity-accounted investees

IR – 17 July 2018
34
Fertilizer deliveries
Kilotons
7,000

Outside
Europe

Europe

0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

IR – 17 July 2018
35
Yara 2Q fertilizer deliveries by market and product

Kilotons
2Q17 2Q18
2,413
2,039 2,052
1,671

961 1,076 1,045

664 711 586
302 414

Europe Brazil Latin America North America Asia Africa

1,872
1,213 1,359 1,401 1,244
1,097 1,007 1,137 1,094
846
465 475 355 371

Compound NPK Blend NPK Nitrate Urea Other products UAN CN

1) Yara-produced compound NPK and third party sourced (Total NPK excluding blend NPK)

IR – 17 July 2018
36
 Fertilizer deliveries by product and source

Kilotons 1,872

1,401 1,449
1,359
1,213 1,244 1,217
1,137 1,097
1,007

465 475

2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18 2Q17 2Q18
Nitrate NPK compounds NPK blends Urea UAN Other

Yara-produced deliveries Joint venture & third party sourced

IR – 17 July 2018
37
Strong premium product deliveries

Value-added fertilizer deliveries1 Value-added fertilizer deliveries1

4,000 407
375 369
3,500 355
333 327
3,000 312 311

2,500 260
218
2,000 201 204
CAGR
1,500 9%
142

1,000 83
63
500

0
2Q14 2Q15 2Q16 2Q17 2Q18 Asia Brazil Latin Africa North
America excl. America
Outside Europe Europe Brazil

1) YaraBela, YaraMila and YaraLiva deliveries

2Q16 2Q17 2Q18

IR – 17 July 2018
38
 AdBlue deliveries

Kilotons
600

0
2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18

IR – 17 July 2018
39
 Yara stocks
Kilotons
Finished fertilizer
8,000

Other

Compound
NPK

Nitrates

Urea
0

IR – 17 July 2018
40
Improving grain economics – the Food and Cereal Indexes at 5-
year average

Index FAO price index

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
1/2006 1/2007 1/2008 1/2009 1/2010 1/2011 1/2012 1/2013 1/2014 1/2015 1/2016 1/2017 1/2018
Cereals Price Index Cereals 5 year avg. Food Price Index Food 5 year avg.
Source: FAO

IR – 17 July 2018
41
Non-commercials’ net long position in corn

Thousand contracts
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Source: US Commodity Futures Trading Commission

IR – 17 July 2018
42
 China: Coal prices still supporting the urea market

Coal price in China (fob Qinhuangdao 5500, RMB/mt) China anthracite and urea prices (RMB/mt)

900

2018

2017
2016

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: IHS, CFMW

IR – 17 July 2018
43
Stable Chinese urea pricing, global market moving up sharply
through June, almost no Chinese exports
Increasing urea pricing (USD/ton) Chinese export close to zero (1000 tons)

390 2,400
370 2,200
350 2,000
330 1,800
310 1,600
1,400
290
1,200
270
1,000
250
800
230
600
210
400
190 200
170 0

Urea fob Black Sea Urea prilled fob China

Urea granular fob Egypt Urea inland proxy China
Source: BOABC, CFMW
IR – 17 July 2018
44
Chinese domestic supply slightly up, as export decline more than
offsets lower production
Chinese urea production down vs last year (million tons) Export reduction exceed production decline(million tons)

5.2 60
49.8 4% 48.1
50 43.8 45.7
16/17
40 6.0 2.5
30

20

10
17/18
0

Production

Production
Domestic

Domestic
Export

Export
3.6
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Source: CFMW, covering close to 100% of production Jul-May 16/17 Jul-May 17/18
IR – 17 July 2018
45
 Deliveries in USA similar to last season, in West Europe modestly
down

Million tons N USA Million tons N West Europe

0% -4%
18 8

Net imports
Imports

Production Domestic

0 0
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18

Source: Yara estimate for fertilizer deliveries to selected West European countries.
Total nitrogen deliveries based on TFI, US Trade Commission, Blue-Johnson and Yara estimates
IR – 17 July 2018
46
 European producers’ nitrate stocks

Index
June 2007 = 1
1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

17/18 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17

Source: Fertilizers Europe, June estimate by Yara

IR – 17 July 2018
47
 Modest import catch-up need in India
Calendar year Season-to-date (Apr – Jun)

+2.6%
+1.7% 32.5
31.5
30.2 30.6 6.3 6.4
29.4 29.6 29.7
Million Million 6.0
tonnes 26.9 27.3 tonnes 5.6
26.4
25.5
24.4
23.5 23.7 23.7
22.6 22.3 23 22.7
21.5 22
20.8 20.7
19.7 20.1 20

2005 2017 2016 2017

Production Sales

IR – 17 July 2018
48
Key value drivers – quarterly averages

TTF day ahead (USD/MMBtu) Urea prilled fob Black Sea (USD/t)/Urea CAN cif Germany (USD/t)
granular fob Egypt (dotted line, USD/t)
7.7 7.3
6.6 272 261 245
5.0 5.5 207
234 244 229 227 247 205
239
211
190 201 198

2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18

US gas price Henry Hub (USD/MMBtu) Ammonia fob Black Sea (USD/t) NOK/USD exchange rate
8.5
3.0 3.1 282 286 287
2.9 2.9 2.9
231 8.2
198
8.0 8.0
7.8

2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18

Source: Fertilizer Market Publications, CERA, World Bank, Norges Bank

IR – 17 July 2018
49
 10-year fertilizer prices – monthly averages

USD/t Ammonia fob Black Sea USD/t CAN cif Germany

1,000 500

800 400

600 300

400 200

200 100

0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

USD/t Urea prilled fob Black Sea/Urea granular fob Egypt USD/t DAP fob US Gulf/MOP granular fob Vancouver
800 1,200
1,000
600
800
400 600
400
200
200
0 0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Fertilizer Market Publications Average prices 2008 - 2017

IR – 17 July 2018
50
IR – 17 July 2018