NRB Bearings - Stock Note - 080617 PDF
NRB Bearings - Stock Note - 080617 PDF
NRB Bearings - Stock Note - 080617 PDF
RETAIL RESEARCH
NRB Bearings Ltd
Industry CMP Recommendation Add on Dips to band Sequential Targets Time Horizon
Bearings Rs. 130 Buy at CMP and add on declines Rs. 115-119 Rs. 147 & Rs. 161 2-3 quarters
Founded in 1965, NRB Bearings (NRB) was the first company to manufacture needle roller bearings in India. For over 40
HDFC Scrip Code NRBBEAEQNR
years, NRB has pioneered the leading edge of bearing technology, and is a recognised leader in needle roller bearings. It is
BSE Code 530367 the largest manufacturer of needle roller bearings in India, with ~70% segmental market share. With 65% revenue coming
NSE Code NRBBEARING in from domestic OEMs, NRB is expected to be a key beneficiary of robust growth in the automobile sector. With an
increased emphasis on weight reduction in vehicles and lower space utilisation, applications for needle roller bearings are
Bloomberg NRBBR IN
increasing. NRB has globally competent technology, and ~20% of its revenue comes from exports.
CMP as on 08 Jun 17 130.00
Eq. Capital (Rs crs) 19.38 Investment Rationale:
Well-diversified revenue stream
Face Value (Rs) 2
Leadership in needle roller bearings
Equity Sh. Outs (Cr) 9.69 Improved export outlook
Market Cap (Rs crs) 1260 Turn around in subsidiaries
Railways, Aerospace and Defence: Poised for the Next Big Leap
Book Value (Rs) 32.7
Strong financial parameters
Avg. 52 Week Vol 68000
52 Week High 141.00 Concerns:
NRB Bearings’ revenue dominated by automotive OEMs
52 Week Low 103.00
Corporate guarantee to group company (NIBL)
Threat from cheap bearing imports and competition from global players
Shareholding Pattern-% (Mar-2017) Bearings manufacturing is capital-intensive business
Forex risk may impact financial performance
Promoters 54.67
Institutions 33.80 Financial Summary (Standalone)
Non Institutions 11.54 (Rs Cr) Q4FY17 Q4FY16 YoY (%) Q3FY17 QoQ (%) FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Total 100.0 Operating Income 1,887 1,657 13.9 1,724 9.5 6,749 7,276 7,961 8,904
EBITDA 270 199 35.2 309 (12.6) 1,112 1,193 1,337 1,533
PAT 130 76 69.5 120 8.0 420 540 578 710
Research Analyst: Atul Karwa
EPS (Rs) 1.3 0.8 69.5 1.2 8.0 4.3 5.6 6.0 7.3
[email protected] P/E (x) 27.2 21.1 19.7 16.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 11.6 10.2 8.7
RoNW (%) 15.7 18.1 17.1 18.6
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
Company Description
Founded in 1965, NRB was the first company to manufacture needle roller bearings in India. For over 40 years, NRB has
pioneered the leading edge of bearing technology, and today most of the vehicles on Indian roads run on NRB parts. Since
its inception, NRB has grown beyond its signature product to offer a wide range of high-precision friction solutions not only
in the automotive sector, but across all mobility applications.
NRB is known for quality and innovative design in high-precision friction solutions. NRB Bearings is a recognised leader in
needle roller bearings, conventional cylindrical roller bearings and has developed a new generation of lightweight drawn
cup bearings.
The NRB group has a market share of ~70% in the needle roller bearings segment and a strong market position in the
cylindrical roller bearings segment. The group is a key supplier to prominent automotive OEMs in India. To reduce the
impact of cyclical demand from end users (domestic automotive OEMs), the NRB group has focused on increasing revenue
from exports and the replacement market. Revenue from OEMs reduced to 60-65% of the group's total revenue in FY17
from 74% in FY11. Despite the large proportion of revenue from OEMs, no single customer accounts for more than 10% of
the group's revenue.
Investment Rationale
Well-diversified revenue stream
NRB is expected to be a key beneficiary of robust growth in the automobile sector, with the domestic OEM segment
accounting for 65% of its revenue. Despite demonetisation, this sector posted 6% YoY growth in FY17 at ~26mn units, led by
2Ws, PVS (cars and UV) and tractors. This trend is likely to accelerate with the expected rise in per capita income and rural
spending. NRB’s domestic revenue (80% in FY17) could broadly be broken up into 2W 30%, CV 28%, PV 15%, farm and off
Highway 10% and Aftermarket 16%. Exports account for 20% of revenue.
The company has identified needle roller bearings (42% of revenue in FY16) as its focus area. These can bear sizeable radial
loads, and operate at a high speed with moderate vibrations and sound. The company also manufactures cylindrical
bearings, special tapered roller bearings and special ball bearings. With a proven track record of over 50 years, it is the
preferred supplier to leading domestic OEMs such as Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors and Ashok
Leyland, among others.
NRB’s client portfolio is well-diversified, and any customer’s average contribution to revenue is not more than ~10%. The
top 10 clients’ contribution stands at ~50% of the top-line. The company also indicated that the constituents of the top-10
slot keep changing based on the segmental growth. Revenue growth in NRB’s auto segment has mimicked that of overall
auto sales volumes historically. For example, in FY10-12, when overall auto volumes grew ~28/25/14% YoY, respectively,
NRB’s revenue grew ~22%/34/17% YoY, respectively. Similarly, when the automotive segment was facing challenging times
(muted 3% growth in FY16), NRB’s revenue increased 1% YoY in FY16, exhibiting a strong correlation.
Revenue mirrors Auto industry’s volume growth Needle roller bearings account for 42% of revenues
As NRB prefers working with automotive OEMs from the product development stage, it has a strong affiliation with them.
The principle advantage of this is that if selected, NRB is the sole or main supplier for the first few years (normally five). This
helps it in keeping margins and market share high, and also the competition at bay.
Needle roller bearings are used in a variety of applications, such as radial piston pumps, automotive steering and braking
systems, transmissions, engines, valve trains, copiers, fax machines, outboard engines and lawn trimmers. These bearings
were invaluable in the development of small, efficient and reasonably priced cars. The increasing requirement for needle
roller bearings has led to a considerable expansion of the product range in just a few years.
NRB exports to global OEMs like Renault Volvo, VW and Daimler Trucks. The company also supplies to Tier-I clients like ZF
and Getrag. The association with global OEMs has helped the company enhance its engineering capabilities and benchmark
its quality to global standards. The company exports to Europe, US and Latin America. Europe and US together contribute
~65% to the total export revenue.
After a period of strong growth (~27% CAGR over FY12-15), exports fell 16% in FY16, owing to a slowdown in Europe and
fall in the Euro-INR exchange rate. The company has major clients in the European region including Renault, Volvo, Daimler
Trucks and Audi. Large global OEMs were circumspect about on-boarding new suppliers.
Global OEMs were also reviewing their procurement policies in the wake of emission-related violations by Volkswagen.
Consequently, the company was unable to expand its customer base in FY16. However, the situation has improved in the
last six months, with a revival in key markets and the addition of new clients like Meritor and Detroit.
Management indicated that it plans to expand its geographical presence as well as client base to mitigate its dependence
on Europe and US. NRB also exports to the ASEAN region, with a special focus on Sri Lanka and Nepal. The company is
making inroads into Iran, given the growing demand in the region. We believe these initiatives would help NRB diversify its
client base and market for exports.
SNL Bearings (SNL): SNL (earlier known as Shriram Needle Bearings), was a JV between INA and the Shriram group. In 2000,
NRB acquired a 45% stake in the company, which it gradually increased to 73.5%. SNL also manufactures needle roller
bearings at Ranchi. This company was acquired mainly to consolidate its technical and mechanical expertise, given that the
products of both companies are similar. NRB has turned SNL around in five years, and now it enjoys a strong EBITDA margin
of 25% to 30%.
NRB Bearings Thailand (NBT): In the initial years, this subsidiary was only involved in the trading of goods, and was making
losses until FY16. Today, however, manufacturing activity is increasing, and contributes 40% to revenue. New business deals
are being finalised with European and Japanese customers. The introduction of new products in the market, as well as
enhanced production of needle roller bearings helped the company to turn profitable in FY17.
Sales and PAT of SNL Bearing Sales and PAT of NRB Bearing Thailand
Railways, Aerospace and Defence: Poised for the Next Big Leap
After Automotive, the Railways stands as the second largest sector in the country. With the focus on increasing safety in
trains, the modernisation and expansion of the railway’s rolling stock/locomotives, an increasing number of fast trains and
track kilometres, introduction of high-speed trains, and the DFC (Dedicated Freight Corridor) project, along with the
expansion of the metro train network to a number of cities are all expected to drive demand for bearings by a double-digit
CAGR in the next few years.
Defence and Aerospace are also gaining strong traction, owing to the government’s Make In India initiatives. The company
is looking at the Defence, Aerospace and Railway segments as sources of incremental revenue (aggregate ~Rs. 600mn by
FY19E).
two years declined by 150-200 bps to 16.5% owing to a fall in exports, we expect them to move up hereon, led by an
improvement in operating leverage and revival in exports.
Revenues to grow at 10.6% CAGR over FY17-FY19E EBITDA margin to remain steady between 16.5-17%
Debt and Interest Expenses To Go Down ROE And ROCE To Improve In Next Two Years
NRB’s ROCE is lower than peers, despite better operating margins, as the company has lower asset turnover (absence of
traded revenues) and higher working capital requirements.
The reason for high working capital requirements are: 1) Lower sales from the aftermarket business 2) Company maintains
a large number of SKUs (as high as 2.5x the nearest competitor) 3) NRB has more customised bearings, and the exports
business requires maintaining inventory at warehouses in different geographies 4) Working capital higher owing to revenue
mix, absence of trading revenue and higher SKUs
Concerns
Corporate guarantee to group company (NIBL)
NRB Industrial Bearings Ltd (NIBL) was demerged from NRB Bearings in October 2012. NRB Bearings is being managed by
Harshbeena Zaveri, and NIBL by her brother, Devesh Sahney. The demerger agreement mandates NRB Bearings to cater to
the Automobile segment, and NIBL to the Industry segment. However, on the expiry of the demerger agreement (was valid
till 2016), there will be no such restrictions for either company. Related party transactions suggest that NRB Bearings has
provided guarantees to NIBL of Rs 263mn and an inter-corporate deposit of Rs 90.7mn. NIBL has been continually making
losses.
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Threat from cheap bearing imports and competition from global players
The import of needle roller bearings is not as rampant as ball bearings because manufacturing needle roller bearings
requires a higher level of technological competence. However, global leaders in this category like INA (Schaeffler group
company, Germany) and Nadella (France) are looking at India as an upcoming market. In fact, INA is a very active
competitor to NRB Bearings.
Key highlights
Growth levers in place: High-margin customised products (42% of sales are from needle-roller bearings) and
absence of low-margin traded goods makes NRB better placed than its peers. The company is looking to procure
incremental revenue from the Defence (Rs 350mn), Marine and Railway (Rs 200mn) segments (aggregate ~Rs
600mn by FY19E). With the auto industry showing signs of recovery, we estimate revenue to grow at 12% CAGR
over FY17-19E.
Improving exports: We believe growth in revenue in 4Q is attributable to a revival in exports to a large extent.
Management reiterated that it plans to expand its geographical presence (ASEAN region and Iran), as well as client
base to mitigate its dependence on Europe and US. Going ahead, we expect NRB’s export revenue to grow at 12%
CAGR over FY17-19E.
Near-term outlook: Q1FY18 is expected to be decent, led by growth in 2W and PV sales and revival in export.
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Particulars (Rs Mn) Q4FY17 Q4FY16 YoY (%) Q3FY17 QoQ (%)
Net Sales (incl OOI) 1,887 1,724 9.5 1,657 13.9
Material Expenses 804 756 6.3 648 24.1
Employee Expenses 283 302 (6.3) 313 (9.6)
Other Operating Expenses 531 357 48.8 497 6.8
EBITDA 270 309 (12.6) 199 35.2
Depreciation 74 103 (28.2) 71 3.8
EBIT 196 206 (4.9) 128 52.6
Other Income 13 4 241.0 11 16.7
Interest Cost 36 45 (18.7) 41 (12.1)
FX gain/loss 173 165 4.7 99 75.5
PBT 43 45 (4.2) 22 96.4
Tax 130 120 8.0 76 69.5
PAT 130 120 8.0 76 69.5
EPS 1.3 1.2 8.0 0.8 69.5
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)
Industry Overview
The Indian bearing industry is expected to grow in double-digits for the next five years. It will continue to be dominated by
leading global players. With the organised market size at Rs ~90bn, the industry in the country is skewed towards the local
listed franchise of leading global players like SKF AB, Timken Co, FAGSchaeffler AG, and also players of Indian origin like NRB
Bearings and NEI (National Engineering Industry).
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Global players are present in India either as listed entities and/or wholly-owned subsidiaries or joint ventures. The top five
players (SKF India, FAG, NEI, Timken India, and NRB Bearings) enjoy ~82% market share. The organised sector primarily
caters to OEMs, which are predominantly in the Automotive, Railways and other industrial sectors. The unorganised sector
primarily caters to the replacement market and the extremely low-end segment, as it manufactures counterfeit products.
FAG enjoys the status of being the second-largest player in the overall bearings market in India. The company has a strong
presence in automotive OEMs. In addition to manufacturing various types of bearings, it has a high share in the wheel-
bearing segment. FAG is the leader in the manufacture of roller bearings: cylindrical and spherical.
Timken India is the leader in tapered roller bearings, and has a dominant market share in the MHCV segment. The company
is not present in the ball bearing segment.
NRB Bearings is a pure play in the automotive segment. It is the market leader in needle roller bearings, with ~70% market
share in this product category. Needle roller bearings find applications when space is a constraint and a large load-bearing
capability is needed. The company is the largest supplier of this product to automotive OEMs.
Company Specialised and Leadership in Market share in specialized product (%) Nearest competitor
SKF India Deep groove ball bearing 45 FAG
FAG Spherical and Cylindrical ball bearing 40 SKF, Timken
NEI Spherical and Cylindrical ball bearing 20 Timken
Timken India Tapered roller bearing 45 NEI, FAG
NRB Bearings Needle roller bearing 70 INA
(Source: HDFC Sec)
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Ball bearing is the largest category of imported bearings and occupies over 50% share in total imports of bearings. Following
slowing demand in the developed markets of US and Europe, cheap imports from China and other South–East Asian
countries exerted pressure on Indian suppliers, leading them to price their products lower. They are proving to be a big
threat for the domestic bearing industry, as many customers opt for cheaper imported bearings. A ready supply chain and
strong focus on reducing costs, minimising waste and increasing efficiency of operations are effective ways to counter the
same.
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Financial Statements
Income Statement
(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E
Net Revenues 6,703 6,749 7,276 7,961 8,904
Growth (%) 10.3% 0.7% 7.8% 9.4% 11.8%
Material Expenses 2,535 2,621 2,720 3,092 3,458
Power & Fuel expenses 278 294 320 347 388
Employee Expenses 1,121 1,284 1,302 1,514 1,674
Other Operating Expenses 1,530 1,438 1,741 1,671 1,851
EBITDA 1,239 1,112 1,193 1,337 1,533
EBITDA Margin (%) 18.5% 16.5% 16.4% 16.8% 17.2%
EBITDA Growth (%) 19.2% -10.3% 7.3% 12.0% 14.7%
Depreciation 310 319 323 369 396
EBIT 929 792 870 968 1,137
Other Income (Incl. EO Items) 45 32 78 79 81
Interest 194 185 169 188 164
PBT 780 639 779 860 1,054
Tax (Incl Deferred) 243 207 225 267 327
Minority Interest 5 12 14 15 17
APAT 532 420 540 578 710
APAT Growth (%) 59.4% -19.6% 28.6% 7.0% 22.9%
Adj EPS 5.5 4.3 5.6 6.0 7.3
EPS Growth (%) 59.4% -19.6% 28.6% 7.0% 22.9%
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Balance Sheet
(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital - Equity 194 194 194 194 194
Reserves 2,348 2,598 2,977 3,381 3,878
Total Shareholders’ Funds 2,542 2,792 3,171 3,575 4,072
Minority Interest 29 41 55 70 88
Long Term Debt 1,008 618 1,075 925 775
Short Term Debt 1,932 2,058 1,573 1,673 1,523
Total Debt 2,940 2,676 2,647 2,597 2,297
Net Deferred Taxes 120 117 127 127 127
Long Term Provisions & Others 133 129 125 57 57
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS 5,765 5,755 6,125 6,427 6,641
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block 2,580 2,595 2,470 2,689 2,793
CWIP 35 48 88 93 98
Investments - - 11 - -
LT Loans & Advances 805 640 698 795 803
Total Non-current Assets 3,421 3,283 3,266 3,577 3,695
Inventories 1,642 1,447 1,723 1,701 1,903
Debtors 1,998 2,259 2,212 2,530 2,732
Other Current Assets 35 37 0 2 4
Cash & Equivalents 280 320 226 420 339
Total Current Assets 3,955 4,064 4,161 4,654 4,978
Creditors 891 899 1,046 944 1,050
Other Current Liabilities &Provns 719 693 258 861 982
Total Current Liabilities 1,610 1,592 1,303 1,804 2,032
Net Current Assets 2,344 2,472 2,858 2,850 2,947
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS 5,765 5,754 6,125 6,427 6,641
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Cash Flow
(Rs mn) FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E
Reported PBT 780 639 779 860 1,054
Interest expenses 194 185 169 188 164
Depreciation 310 319 323 369 396
Working Capital Change (384) 141 (759) 211 (186)
Tax Paid (243) (207) (225) (267) (327)
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 657 1,077 287 1,361 1,101
Capex (235) (192) (326) (505) (505)
Free cash flow (FCF) 422 885 (39) 856 596
Investments - - 11 (11) -
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) (235) (192) (316) (516) (505)
Debt Issuance/(Repaid) 100 (488) 275 (300) (300)
Interest Expenses (194) (185) (169) (188) (164)
FCFE 329 212 67 368 132
Share Capital Issuance - - - - -
Others - 109 - - -
Dividend (107) (281) (172) (163) (213)
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) (200) (845) (65) (651) (677)
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 222 40 (94) 194 (81)
Closing Cash & Equivalents 280 320 226 420 339
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Key Ratios
FY15 FY16 FY17P FY18E FY19E
PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM 62.2 61.2 62.6 61.2 61.2
EBITDA Margin 18.5 16.5 16.4 16.8 17.2
APAT Margin 7.9 6.2 7.4 7.3 8.0
RoE 22.5 15.7 18.1 17.1 18.6
RoIC (or Core RoCE) 13.8 10.7 11.2 12.1 13.5
RoCE 12.1 9.5 11.1 11.3 12.6
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%) 31.2 32.4 28.9 31.0 31.0
Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 1.36 1.30 1.44 1.54 1.62
Inventory (days) 89.4 78.3 86.4 78.0 78.0
Debtors (days) 108.8 122.2 111.0 116.0 112.0
Other Current Assets (days) 1.9 2.0 0.0 0.1 0.2
Payables (days) 48.5 48.6 52.5 43.3 43.0
Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 39.1 37.5 12.9 39.5 40.2
Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 112.4 116.4 132.0 111.4 106.9
Debt/EBITDA (x) 2.4 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.5
Net D/E (x) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5
Interest Coverage (x) 4.8 4.3 5.2 5.2 6.9
PER SHARE DATA (Rs)
EPS 5.5 4.3 5.6 6.0 7.3
CEPS 8.7 7.6 8.9 9.8 11.4
Dividend 1.2 1.6 1.8 3.0 4.2
Book Value 26.2 28.8 32.7 36.9 42.0
VALUATION
P/E (x) 21.4 27.2 21.1 19.7 16.1
P/BV (x) 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.3 12.4 11.6 10.2 8.7
EV/Revenues (x) 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.5
OCF/EV (%) 4.7 7.8 2.1 10.0 8.2
FCF/EV (%) 3.0 6.4 (0.3) 6.3 4.5
FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 2.9 1.9 0.6 3.2 1.2
Dividend Yield (%) 1.0 1.4 1.5 2.6 3.5
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