Basic Forecasting Paper Sample

2012
Forecasting GDP per Capita (Current Prices): A Comparative;

Analyses, China, United States of America, Philippines
Don Wade Comoro

Ma. Romylen Agocejos
Irish Marie Chan
9/5/2012
Table of Contents
I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 6
II. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY ....................................................................................................................... 7
III. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................................... 8
Data Collection ....................................................................................................................................... 8
Data Analysis .......................................................................................................................................... 8
Naïve .................................................................................................................................................... 8
Simple Moving Average .................................................................................................................... 9
Weighted Moving Average ................................................................................................................ 9
Exponential Smoothing ..................................................................................................................... 9
Trend Projection ............................................................................................................................... 10
IV. PRESENTATION OF D ATA .................................................................................................................... 10
V. FORECASTS AND ACCURACY TESTING ...................................................................................................... 12
Naïve ...................................................................................................................................................... 12
Simple Moving Average ...................................................................................................................... 16
Weighted Moving Average .................................................................................................................. 20
Exponential Smoothing ....................................................................................................................... 23
Trend Projection ................................................................................................................................... 26
VI. SUMMARY/ IMPLICATIONS ................................................................................................................. 31
VII. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 32
VIII. APPENDICES ...................................................................................................................................... 32
Appendix A ............................................................................................................................................ 32
Appendix B ............................................................................................................................................ 33
Appendix C ............................................................................................................................................ 34
Appendix D ............................................................................................................................................ 35
Appendix E ............................................................................................................................................ 36
Appendix F ............................................................................................................................................ 37
Appendix G............................................................................................................................................ 38
Appendix I.............................................................................................................................................. 39
Appendix J ............................................................................................................................................. 40
Appendix K ............................................................................................................................................ 41
Appendix L ............................................................................................................................................ 42
Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 2

Comparative Analyses, US, China, Philippines
Appendix M ........................................................................................................................................... 43
Appendix N ............................................................................................................................................ 44
Appendix O............................................................................................................................................ 44
Appendix P ............................................................................................................................................ 45
Appendix Q............................................................................................................................................ 46

List of Tables
Table 1. Actual Real GDP per capita
Table 2. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using Naïve Forecasting Technique
Table 3. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using Naïve Forecasting Technique
Table 4. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using Naïve Forecasting Technique
Table 5. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using Simple Moving Average Forecasting
Technique
Table 6. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using Naïve Forecasting Technique
Table 7. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using Naïve Forecasting Technique
Table 8. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using Weighted Moving Average Forecasting
Technique
Table 9. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using Weighted Moving Average
Forecasting Technique
Table 10. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using Weighted Moving Average Forecasting
Technique
Table 11. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using Simple Exponential Smoothing
Table 12. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using Simple Exponential Smoothing
Table 13. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using Simple Exponential Smoothing
Table 14. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using Trend Projection Forecasting
Technique
Table 15. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using Trend Projection Forecasting
Technique
Table 16. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using Trend Projection Forecasting Technique

List of Figures
Figure 1. Graph of the actual Real GDP per capita of China, Philippines and US ........................ 12
Figure 2. Graph of the forecasted Real GDP of the three countries using Naïve .......................... 16
Figure 3. Graph of Forecasted Real GDP per capita of the three countries using Simple moving
average ...................................................................................................................................................... 19
Figure 4. Graph of forecasted Real GDP per capita of the three countries using Weighted
Moving Average........................................................................................................................................ 23
Figure 5. Graph of the forecasted Real GDP per capita of the three countries using simple
exponential smoothing............................................................................................................................. 26
Figure 6. Graph of the forecasted Real GDP per capita of the three countries using Trend
Projection ................................................................................................................................................... 30

I. INTRODUCTION
A whirlwind in the global economy is expected to happen in the near 40-50 years as
projected by international economic watch groups as well as individual researchers. Current
economic conditions highlight the brittleness of the European economy and is expected to
continue to deteriorate in the next 50 years. The Southeast Asian countries on the otherhand
showed positive economic growth where a bulk of the world production is expected to come
from after 40 years which accounts for 49%, significantly higher than that of US and Europe
combined which is expected to be only 19%.
Recent World Bank figures showed that the United States still leads the world in
economic output (as measured by GDP).However, according to the International Monetary
Fund, the United States is five years away in terms of economy and the next US president will
preside over an economy that plays second fiddle to China’s. In a statement by
economywatch.com, it highlighted that China could overtake US to become world's largest
economy if it can maintain its current rate of economic growth. Analysts predict that by 2035,
Chinese economy would have grown large enough to be considered as an economic giant
greater than United States. But China economic analysis reveals that this nation's incredible
growth story has been affected by global economic meltdown of 2008. Philippines on the tiny
side once tagged as Asia’s laggard is expected to be one of the fastest growing economies in
the world after 40 years according to the wealth report and 3rd in the Southeast Asian region
only over taken by Vietnam and China.
The key role of these three countries in the future world production is implicit. However
events start to highlight the importance of these countries to help sustain a steady state in the
world’s free flow of goods and services. The most noticeable among these is the recent stand-
off in the disputed Panatag Shoal between the Republic of the Philippines and the People’s

Republic of China. Given the assumption that in the near future the Asia Pacific region shall be
the biggest contributor to the world’s production, each of these countries will play a significant
role in the said event. The United States announced that it will move 60% of its naval fleet in the
Asia Pacific region in 20 years thus containing the influence of China in the region. In the rear
side, China is expected to be the largest economy by that time thus, holding the title of being a
world Superpower. The key role of the Philippines is holding the custody of the trade route itself
though still contested; assuming that the trend will continue it is expected that the republic shall
have significant military strength to defend its claim.
The view is now then clear. It is a battle of influence between the US and China over the
Pacific region and the world’s demand for goods and services. Also, it is challenge for the
smaller country the Philippines to stay in its growth rate and to hold a considerable amount of
strength to defend its claim over the Pacific region. Thus, the need of a reliable projection of
what to happen in these key players in the world economy is as significant as global warming or
the world’s increasing population or the extinction of whales.
II. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
a) To make predictions of the economic stability of China, Philippines and United
States (US).
b) To be able to aid policymakers in deciding future contingency measures in
relations with economic stability.
c) To provide useful information for better understanding of the future world
production given the trends available.
d) To analyze implications of current trade policies’ impact on future world economy.

III. METHODOLOGY
Data Collection
Thorough research was done to obtain the most reliable historical data on the three
countries namely China, Philippines and the United States of America. The data used in this
study was collected from the data in the World Bank and from an international research, which
has been created using the highest standards of the fields of economics and history. Real
GDP per capita from the year 1980 to 2010 were gathered from each of the three countries.
Other economic firms were also considered such as the International Monetary Fund and the
Central Intelligence Agency.
Data Analysis
The research instrument used in this study is Microsoft Office Excel 2007. To measure
forecasting accuracy, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) was used in which the summation of the
absolute value of the forecast error in each time period was divided by the number of time
periods.
Five forecasting techniques were used in forecasting the real GDP per capita of each
country. All of the forecasting techniques used belong to time-series models. Time-series
models attempt to predict the future based on the past. The forecasting models used are the
following:
Naïve
This is considered as the simplest forecasting technique. This uses the actual Real GDP
per capita for the past period as the forecasted Real GDP per capita for the next period.

Simple Moving Average
This study uses a two-year moving averages because it gives the minimum MAD (Mean
Absolute Deviation). For the two-year moving average, below is the formula used:
Yt+ Yt-1
F t+1 =
n
Where:
F t+1 =forecast for time period t +1
Yt = actual value in time period t
n = number of periods to average
Weighted Moving Average
For the four-month weighted moving average: the last year’s real GDP per capita was
given the weight one and two for the real GDP per capita two years ago. Below is the formula
used for the weighted moving average.
w1Yt+ w2Yt-1
Ft+1 = w1 +w2
Where
W1= weight of the first observation
W2= weight of the second observation
Exponential Smoothing
The formula used to get the forecasted Real GDP per capita using exponential
smoothing is shown below:

Ft+1= Ft + α (Yt – Ft )
Where:
Ft+1 = new forecast (for time period t + 1)
Ft = previous forecast (for time period t)
α = smoothing constant (0 ≤ α ≤ 1)
Yt = previous period’s actual demand
The alpha for each country’s Real GDP per capita was chosen such that the least error
using MAD is acquired. To get the best value of alpha, Microsoft Excel’s Solver was used. The
alpha used for China is 0.9999999, Philippines with an alpha 0.99999 and US with 0.9999999.
Trend Projection
The equation for trend projection is obtained by computing the slope and the y-intercept
using the features of Microsoft Excel 2007. The independent variable is the year and the
dependent variable is the Real GDP per capita in US dollars.
IV. PRESENTATION OF DATA
Real GDP per capita is calculated by dividing Real GDP by Population. This is the
average output of the economy per person measured in a base year prices. This ratio is often
used as a measure of standard of living in comparisons over time of one country, or between
different countries when measured in the same currency. The measure is expressed in currency
units per person. In this study, Real GDP per capita is expressed in US dollars per person.

Table 1. Actual Real GDP per capita (1980-2010)
Real GDP per capita

Year China Philippines US
1980 $ 220.54 $ 1,098.40 $ 25,640.46
1981 $ 228.84 $ 1,104.66 $ 26,030.40
1982 $ 246.17 $ 1,113.18 $ 25,281.85
1983 $ 269.23 $ 1,103.02 $ 26,185.81
1984 $ 307.19 $ 994.46 $ 27,822.62
1985 $ 341.49 $ 896.96 $ 28,717.52
1986 $ 365.90 $ 902.81 $ 29,443.29
1987 $ 401.41 $ 916.82 $ 30,115.34
1988 $ 439.12 $ 953.24 $ 31,069.41
1989 $ 449.62 $ 986.62 $ 31,876.78
1990 $ 459.99 $ 991.40 $ 32,112.35
1991 $ 495.39 $ 961.97 $ 31,614.01
1992 $ 558.97 $ 942.64 $ 32,255.32
1993 $ 629.76 $ 940.56 $ 32,746.79
1994 $ 704.57 $ 959.65 $ 33,670.65
1995 $ 773.53 $ 982.03 $ 34,111.44
1996 $ 842.49 $ 1,016.31 $ 34,977.42
1997 $ 912.05 $ 1,025.55 $ 36,101.89
1998 $ 974.66 $ 1,016.78 $ 37,238.28
1999 $ 1,039.96 $ 1,025.55 $ 38,591.91
2000 $ 1,116.60 $ 1,048.07 $ 39,749.59
2001 $ 1,201.06 $ 1,055.81 $ 39,767.99
2002 $ 1,301.87 $ 1,071.69 $ 40,061.71
2003 $ 1,424.16 $ 1,102.22 $ 40,696.59
2004 $ 1,559.14 $ 1,153.02 $ 41,726.80
2005 $ 1,726.10 $ 1,185.38 $ 42,612.30
2006 $ 1,934.68 $ 1,225.05 $ 43,331.93
2007 $ 2,197.08 $ 1,283.47 $ 43,726.18
2008 $ 2,396.38 $ 1,314.23 $ 43,177.70
2009 $ 2,604.35 $ 1,307.14 $ 41,313.18
2010 $ 2,859.43 $ 1,383.40 $ 42,204.92

Figure 1. Graph of the actual Real GDP per capita of China, Philippines and US
Real GDP per capita

$50,000.00
$45,000.00
$40,000.00
Real GDP per capita
$35,000.00
$30,000.00
$25,000.00 US
$20,000.00
Philippines
$15,000.00
China
$10,000.00
$5,000.00
$-
Year
V. FORECASTS AND ACCURACY TESTING
Naïve
Table 2. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using the Naïve forecasting technique
YEAR Actual Forecast |ERROR|

1980 $ 220.54 - -
1981 $ 228.84 $ 220.54 8.30
1982 $ 246.17 $ 228.84 17.33
1983 $ 269.23 $ 246.17 23.07
1984 $ 307.19 $ 269.23 37.96
1985 $ 341.49 $ 307.19 34.30
1986 $ 365.90 $ 341.49 24.41
1987 $ 401.41 $ 365.90 35.52
1988 $ 439.12 $ 401.41 37.71
1989 $ 449.62 $ 439.12 10.50
1990 $ 459.99 $ 449.62 10.37
1991 $ 495.39 $ 459.99 35.39
1992 $ 558.97 $ 495.39 63.59

1993 $ 629.76 $ 558.97 70.79
1994 $ 704.57 $ 629.76 74.81
1995 $ 773.53 $ 704.57 68.96
1996 $ 842.49 $ 773.53 68.96
1997 $ 912.05 $ 842.49 69.57
1998 $ 974.66 $ 912.05 62.61
1999 $ 1,039.96 $ 974.66 65.29
2000 $ 1,116.60 $ 1,039.96 76.65
2001 $ 1,201.06 $ 1,116.60 84.46
2002 $ 1,301.87 $ 1,201.06 100.81
2003 $ 1,424.16 $ 1,301.87 122.29
2004 $ 1,559.14 $ 1,424.16 134.98
2005 $ 1,726.10 $ 1,559.14 166.96
2006 $ 1,934.68 $ 1,726.10 208.58
2007 $ 2,197.08 $ 1,934.68 262.40
2008 $ 2,396.38 $ 2,197.08 199.30
2009 $ 2,604.35 $ 2,396.38 207.97
2010 $ 2,859.43 $ 2,604.35 255.08
2011 $ 2,859.43
MAD 87.96
Table 3. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using the Naïve forecasting
technique

1980 $ 1,098.40 - -
1981 $ 1,104.66 $ 1,098.40 $ 6.26
1982 $ 1,113.18 $ 1,104.66 $ 8.52
1983 $ 1,103.02 $ 1,113.18 $ 10.16
1984 $ 994.46 $ 1,103.02 $ 108.56
1985 $ 896.96 $ 994.46 $ 97.50
1986 $ 902.81 $ 896.96 $ 5.85
1987 $ 916.82 $ 902.81 $ 14.01
1988 $ 953.24 $ 916.82 $ 36.42
1989 $ 986.62 $ 953.24 $ 33.38
1990 $ 991.40 $ 986.62 $ 4.78
1991 $ 961.97 $ 991.40 $ 29.43
1992 $ 942.64 $ 961.97 $ 19.33

1993 $ 940.56 $ 942.64 $ 2.08
1994 $ 959.65 $ 940.56 $ 19.09
1995 $ 982.03 $ 959.65 $ 22.38
1996 $ 1,016.31 $ 982.03 $ 34.28
1997 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,016.31 $ 9.24
1998 $ 1,016.78 $ 1,025.55 $ 8.77
1999 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,016.78 $ 8.77
2000 $ 1,048.07 $ 1,025.55 $ 22.52
2001 $ 1,055.81 $ 1,048.07 $ 7.74
2002 $ 1,071.69 $ 1,055.81 $ 15.88
2003 $ 1,102.22 $ 1,071.69 $ 30.53
2004 $ 1,153.02 $ 1,102.22 $ 50.80
2005 $ 1,185.38 $ 1,153.02 $ 32.36
2006 $ 1,225.05 $ 1,185.38 $ 39.67
2007 $ 1,283.47 $ 1,225.05 $ 58.42
2008 $ 1,314.23 $ 1,283.47 $ 30.76
2009 $ 1,307.14 $ 1,314.23 $ 7.09
2010 $ 1,383.40 $ 1,307.14 $ 76.26
2011 $ 1,383.40
MAD 28.36
Table 4. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using the Naïve forecasting technique

1980 $ 25,640.46 - -
1981 $ 26,030.40 $ 25,640.46 389.94
1982 $ 25,281.85 $ 26,030.40 748.55
1983 $ 26,185.81 $ 25,281.85 903.96
1984 $ 27,822.62 $ 26,185.81 1,636.81
1985 $ 28,717.52 $ 27,822.62 894.90
1986 $ 29,443.29 $ 28,717.52 725.77
1987 $ 30,115.34 $ 29,443.29 672.05
1988 $ 31,069.41 $ 30,115.34 954.07
1989 $ 31,876.78 $ 31,069.41 807.37
1990 $ 32,112.35 $ 31,876.78 235.57

1991 $ 31,614.01 $ 32,112.35 498.34
1992 $ 32,255.32 $ 31,614.01 641.31
1993 $ 32,746.79 $ 32,255.32 491.47
1994 $ 33,670.65 $ 32,746.79 923.86
1995 $ 34,111.44 $ 33,670.65 440.79
1996 $ 34,977.42 $ 34,111.44 865.98
1997 $ 36,101.89 $ 34,977.42 1,124.47
1998 $ 37,238.28 $ 36,101.89 1,136.39
1999 $ 38,591.91 $ 37,238.28 1,353.63
2000 $ 39,749.59 $ 38,591.91 1,157.68
2001 $ 39,767.99 $ 39,749.59 18.40
2002 $ 40,061.71 $ 39,767.99 293.72
2003 $ 40,696.59 $ 40,061.71 634.88
2004 $ 41,726.80 $ 40,696.59 1,030.21
2005 $ 42,612.30 $ 41,726.80 885.50
2006 $ 43,331.93 $ 42,612.30 719.63
2007 $ 43,726.18 $ 43,331.93 394.25
2008 $ 43,177.70 $ 43,726.18 548.48
2009 $ 41,313.18 $ 43,177.70 1,864.52
2010 $ 42,204.92 $ 41,313.18 891.74
2011 $ 42,204.92
MAD 796.14

Figure 2. Graph of the forecasted Real GDP of the three countries using Naïve
100,000.00
90,000.00
80,000.00
70,000.00
US actual
60,000.00
US forecast
50,000.00
Philippines actual
40,000.00
Philippines forecast
30,000.00
China actual
20,000.00
China forecast
10,000.00
-
1984
2004
1980
1982
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2006
2008
2010
Year
Simple Moving Average
Table 5. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using the simple moving average
forecasting technique

1980 $ 220.54 - -
1981 $ 228.84 - -
1982 $ 246.17 $ 224.69 21.48
1983 $ 269.23 $ 237.50 31.73
1984 $ 307.19 $ 257.70 49.49
1985 $ 341.49 $ 288.21 53.27
1986 $ 365.90 $ 324.34 41.56
1987 $ 401.41 $ 353.69 47.72
1988 $ 439.12 $ 383.65 55.47
1989 $ 449.62 $ 420.27 29.35
1990 $ 459.99 $ 444.37 15.62
1991 $ 495.39 $ 454.81 40.58
1992 $ 558.97 $ 477.69 81.28
1993 $ 629.76 $ 527.18 102.58
1994 $ 704.57 $ 594.37 110.21

1995 $ 773.53 $ 667.17 106.36
1996 $ 842.49 $ 739.05 103.43
1997 $ 912.05 $ 808.01 104.04
1998 $ 974.66 $ 877.27 97.39
1999 $ 1,039.96 $ 943.36 96.60
2000 $ 1,116.60 $ 1,007.31 109.29
2001 $ 1,201.06 $ 1,078.28 122.78
2002 $ 1,301.87 $ 1,158.83 143.04
2003 $ 1,424.16 $ 1,251.46 172.70
2004 $ 1,559.14 $ 1,363.02 196.13
2005 $ 1,726.10 $ 1,491.65 234.45
2006 $ 1,934.68 $ 1,642.62 292.06
2007 $ 2,197.08 $ 1,830.39 366.69
2008 $ 2,396.38 $ 2,065.88 330.50
2009 $ 2,604.35 $ 2,296.73 307.62
2010 $ 2,859.43 $ 2,500.37 359.06
2011 $ 2,731.89
MAD 131.81
Table 6. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using the simple moving average

1980 $ 1,098.40 - -
1981 $ 1,104.66 - -
1982 $ 1,113.18 $ 1,101.53 $ 11.65
1983 $ 1,103.02 $ 1,108.92 $ 5.90
1984 $ 994.46 $ 1,108.10 $ 113.64
1985 $ 896.96 $ 1,048.74 $ 151.78
1986 $ 902.81 $ 945.71 $ 42.90
1987 $ 916.82 $ 899.89 $ 16.94
1988 $ 953.24 $ 909.82 $ 43.43
1989 $ 986.62 $ 935.03 $ 51.59
1990 $ 991.40 $ 969.93 $ 21.47
1991 $ 961.97 $ 989.01 $ 27.04
1992 $ 942.64 $ 976.69 $ 34.05
1993 $ 940.56 $ 952.31 $ 11.75
1994 $ 959.65 $ 941.60 $ 18.05
1995 $ 982.03 $ 950.11 $ 31.93

1996 $ 1,016.31 $ 970.84 $ 45.47
1997 $ 1,025.55 $ 999.17 $ 26.38
1998 $ 1,016.78 $ 1,020.93 $ 4.15
1999 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,021.17 $ 4.38
2000 $ 1,048.07 $ 1,021.17 $ 26.91
2001 $ 1,055.81 $ 1,036.81 $ 19.00
2002 $ 1,071.69 $ 1,051.94 $ 19.75
2003 $ 1,102.22 $ 1,063.75 $ 38.47
2004 $ 1,153.02 $ 1,086.96 $ 66.07
2005 $ 1,185.38 $ 1,127.62 $ 57.76
2006 $ 1,225.05 $ 1,169.20 $ 55.85
2007 $ 1,283.47 $ 1,205.22 $ 78.25
2008 $ 1,314.23 $ 1,254.26 $ 59.97
2009 $ 1,307.14 $ 1,298.85 $ 8.29
2010 $ 1,383.40 $ 1,310.69 $ 72.72
2011 $ 1,345.27
MAD 40.19
Table 7. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using the simple moving average

1980 $ 25,640.46 - -
1981 $ 26,030.40 - -
1982 $ 25,281.85 $ 25,835.43 553.58
1983 $ 26,185.81 $ 25,656.13 529.69
1984 $ 27,822.62 $ 25,733.83 2,088.79
1985 $ 28,717.52 $ 27,004.22 1,713.31
1986 $ 29,443.29 $ 28,270.07 1,173.22
1987 $ 30,115.34 $ 29,080.41 1,034.94
1988 $ 31,069.41 $ 29,779.32 1,290.10
1989 $ 31,876.78 $ 30,592.38 1,284.41
1990 $ 32,112.35 $ 31,473.10 639.25
1991 $ 31,614.01 $ 31,994.57 380.56
1992 $ 32,255.32 $ 31,863.18 392.14
1993 $ 32,746.79 $ 31,934.67 812.13
1994 $ 33,670.65 $ 32,501.06 1,169.60

1995 $ 34,111.44 $ 33,208.72 902.72
1996 $ 34,977.42 $ 33,891.05 1,086.38
1997 $ 36,101.89 $ 34,544.43 1,557.46
1998 $ 37,238.28 $ 35,539.66 1,698.63
1999 $ 38,591.91 $ 36,670.09 1,921.83
2000 $ 39,749.59 $ 37,915.10 1,834.50
2001 $ 39,767.99 $ 39,170.75 597.24
2002 $ 40,061.71 $ 39,758.79 302.92
2003 $ 40,696.59 $ 39,914.85 781.74
2004 $ 41,726.80 $ 40,379.15 1,347.65
2005 $ 42,612.30 $ 41,211.70 1,400.61
2006 $ 43,331.93 $ 42,169.55 1,162.38
2007 $ 43,726.18 $ 42,972.12 754.06
2008 $ 43,177.70 $ 43,529.06 351.36
2009 $ 41,313.18 $ 43,451.94 2,138.76
2010 $ 42,204.92 $ 42,245.44 40.52
2011 $ 41,759.05
MAD 1066.91
Figure 3. Graph of Forecasted Real GDP per capita of the three countries using Simple moving average
$100,000.00
$90,000.00
$80,000.00
US actual
$70,000.00
US forecast
$60,000.00 Philippines actual
$50,000.00 Philippines forecast
$40,000.00 China actual
$30,000.00 China forecast
$20,000.00
$10,000.00
$-
1992
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

Weighted Moving Average
Table 8. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using the weighted moving average

1980 $ 220.54 - -
1981 $ 228.84 - -
1982 $ 246.17 $ 226.07 20.10
1983 $ 269.23 $ 240.39 28.84
1984 $ 307.19 $ 261.55 45.65
1985 $ 341.49 $ 294.54 46.95
1986 $ 365.90 $ 330.05 35.84
1987 $ 401.41 $ 357.76 43.65
1988 $ 439.12 $ 389.57 49.55
1989 $ 449.62 $ 426.55 23.07
1990 $ 459.99 $ 446.12 13.87
1991 $ 495.39 $ 456.54 38.85
1992 $ 558.97 $ 483.59 75.38
1993 $ 629.76 $ 537.78 91.98
1994 $ 704.57 $ 606.16 98.41
1995 $ 773.53 $ 679.64 93.89
1996 $ 842.49 $ 750.55 91.94
1997 $ 912.05 $ 819.50 92.55
1998 $ 974.66 $ 888.86 85.80
1999 $ 1,039.96 $ 953.79 86.16
2000 $ 1,116.60 $ 1,018.19 98.41
2001 $ 1,201.06 $ 1,091.05 110.00
2002 $ 1,301.87 $ 1,172.91 128.96
2003 $ 1,424.16 $ 1,268.27 155.89
2004 $ 1,559.14 $ 1,383.40 175.75
2005 $ 1,726.10 $ 1,514.15 211.95
2006 $ 1,934.68 $ 1,670.45 264.23
2007 $ 2,197.08 $ 1,865.15 331.93
2008 $ 2,396.38 $ 2,109.61 286.77
2009 $ 2,604.35 $ 2,329.95 274.40
2010 $ 2,859.43 $ 2,535.03 324.40
2011 $ 2,774.40
MAD 118.11

Table 9. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using the weighted moving average

1980 $ 1,098.40 - -
1981 $ 1,104.66 - -
1982 $ 1,113.18 $ 1,102.57 10.61
1983 $ 1,103.02 $ 1,110.34 7.32
1984 $ 994.46 $ 1,106.41 111.95
1985 $ 896.96 $ 1,030.65 133.69
1986 $ 902.81 $ 929.46 26.65
1987 $ 916.82 $ 900.86 15.96
1988 $ 953.24 $ 912.15 41.09
1989 $ 986.62 $ 941.10 45.52
1990 $ 991.40 $ 975.49 15.91
1991 $ 961.97 $ 989.81 27.84
1992 $ 942.64 $ 971.78 29.14
1993 $ 940.56 $ 949.08 8.52
1994 $ 959.65 $ 941.25 18.40
1995 $ 982.03 $ 953.29 28.74
1996 $ 1,016.31 $ 974.57 41.74
1997 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,004.88 20.67
1998 $ 1,016.78 $ 1,022.47 5.69
1999 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,019.70 5.85
2000 $ 1,048.07 $ 1,022.63 25.44
2001 $ 1,055.81 $ 1,040.56 15.25
2002 $ 1,071.69 $ 1,053.23 18.46
2003 $ 1,102.22 $ 1,066.40 35.82
2004 $ 1,153.02 $ 1,092.04 60.98
2005 $ 1,185.38 $ 1,136.09 49.29
2006 $ 1,225.05 $ 1,174.59 50.46
2007 $ 1,283.47 $ 1,211.83 71.64
2008 $ 1,314.23 $ 1,264.00 50.23
2009 $ 1,307.14 $ 1,303.98 3.16
2010 $ 1,383.40 $ 1,309.50 73.90
2011 $ 1,357.98
MAD 38.22

Table 10. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using the weighted moving average

1980 $ 25,640.46 - -
1981 $ 26,030.40 - -
1982 $ 25,281.85 $ 25,900.42 618.57
1983 $ 26,185.81 $ 25,531.37 654.44
1984 $ 27,822.62 $ 25,884.49 1,938.13
1985 $ 28,717.52 $ 27,277.02 1,440.50
1986 $ 29,443.29 $ 28,419.22 1,024.07
1987 $ 30,115.34 $ 29,201.37 913.97
1988 $ 31,069.41 $ 29,891.32 1,178.09
1989 $ 31,876.78 $ 30,751.39 1,125.39
1990 $ 32,112.35 $ 31,607.66 504.69
1991 $ 31,614.01 $ 32,033.83 419.82
1992 $ 32,255.32 $ 31,780.12 475.20
1993 $ 32,746.79 $ 32,041.55 705.24
1994 $ 33,670.65 $ 32,582.97 1,087.68
1995 $ 34,111.44 $ 33,362.70 748.74
1996 $ 34,977.42 $ 33,964.51 1,012.91
1997 $ 36,101.89 $ 34,688.76 1,413.13
1998 $ 37,238.28 $ 35,727.07 1,511.21
1999 $ 38,591.91 $ 36,859.48 1,732.43
2000 $ 39,749.59 $ 38,140.70 1,608.89
2001 $ 39,767.99 $ 39,363.70 404.29
2002 $ 40,061.71 $ 39,761.86 299.85
2003 $ 40,696.59 $ 39,963.80 732.79
2004 $ 41,726.80 $ 40,484.96 1,241.84
2005 $ 42,612.30 $ 41,383.40 1,228.90
2006 $ 43,331.93 $ 42,317.13 1,014.80
2007 $ 43,726.18 $ 43,092.05 634.13
2008 $ 43,177.70 $ 43,594.76 417.06
2009 $ 41,313.18 $ 43,360.53 2,047.35
2010 $ 42,204.92 $ 41,934.69 270.23
2011 $ 41,907.67
MAD 979.46

Figure 4. Graph of forecasted Real GDP per capita of the three countries using Weighted Moving Average
$100,000.00
$90,000.00
$80,000.00
$70,000.00 US actual
$60,000.00
US forecast
$50,000.00
Philippines actual
$40,000.00
Philippines forecast
$30,000.00
China actual
$20,000.00
$-
2006
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2008
2010
Exponential Smoothing
Table 11. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using the exponential Smoothing

1980 $ 220.54 $ 207.00 13.53798
1981 $ 228.84 $ 220.54 8.29916
1982 $ 246.17 $ 228.84 17.33060
1983 $ 269.23 $ 246.17 23.06679
1984 $ 307.19 $ 269.23 37.95646
1985 $ 341.49 $ 307.19 34.29506
1986 $ 365.90 $ 341.49 24.40930
1987 $ 401.41 $ 365.90 35.51553
1988 $ 439.12 $ 401.41 37.71236
1989 $ 449.62 $ 439.12 10.49600
1990 $ 459.99 $ 449.62 10.37395
1991 $ 495.39 $ 459.99 35.39348
1992 $ 558.97 $ 495.39 63.58622
1993 $ 629.76 $ 558.97 70.78696
1994 $ 704.57 $ 629.76 74.81450
1995 $ 773.53 $ 704.57 68.95627

1996 $ 842.49 $ 773.53 68.95627
1997 $ 912.05 $ 842.49 69.56650
1998 $ 974.66 $ 912.05 62.60985
1999 $ 1,039.96 $ 974.66 65.29487
2000 $ 1,116.60 $ 1,039.96 76.64519
2001 $ 1,201.06 $ 1,116.60 84.45617
2002 $ 1,301.87 $ 1,201.06 100.81040
2003 $ 1,424.16 $ 1,301.87 122.29058
2004 $ 1,559.14 $ 1,424.16 134.98341
2005 $ 1,726.10 $ 1,559.14 166.95959
2006 $ 1,934.68 $ 1,726.10 208.57744
2007 $ 2,197.08 $ 1,934.68 262.39994
2008 $ 2,396.38 $ 2,197.08 199.30192
2009 $ 2,604.35 $ 2,396.38 207.96721
2010 $ 2,859.43 $ 2,604.35 255.07715
2011 $ 2,859.43
MAD 85.56216
Table 12. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using the exponential Smoothing

1980 $ 1,098.40 $ 1,074.30 24.10
1981 $ 1,104.66 $ 1,098.40 6.26
1982 $ 1,113.18 $ 1,104.66 8.52
1983 $ 1,103.02 $ 1,113.18 10.16
1984 $ 994.46 $ 1,103.02 108.56
1985 $ 896.96 $ 994.46 97.50
1986 $ 902.81 $ 896.96 5.85
1987 $ 916.82 $ 902.81 14.01
1988 $ 953.24 $ 916.82 36.42
1989 $ 986.62 $ 953.24 33.38
1990 $ 991.40 $ 986.62 4.78
1991 $ 961.97 $ 991.40 29.43
1992 $ 942.64 $ 961.97 19.33
1993 $ 940.56 $ 942.64 2.08
1994 $ 959.65 $ 940.56 19.09
1995 $ 982.03 $ 959.65 22.38
1996 $ 1,016.31 $ 982.03 34.28
1997 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,016.31 9.24

1998 $ 1,016.78 $ 1,025.55 8.77
1999 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,016.78 8.77
2000 $ 1,048.07 $ 1,025.55 22.52
2001 $ 1,055.81 $ 1,048.07 7.74
2002 $ 1,071.69 $ 1,055.81 15.88
2003 $ 1,102.22 $ 1,071.69 30.53
2004 $ 1,153.02 $ 1,102.22 50.80
2005 $ 1,185.38 $ 1,153.02 32.36
2006 $ 1,225.05 $ 1,185.38 39.67
2007 $ 1,283.47 $ 1,225.05 58.42
2008 $ 1,314.23 $ 1,283.47 30.76
2009 $ 1,307.14 $ 1,314.23 7.09
2010 $ 1,383.40 $ 1,307.14 76.26
2011 $ 1,383.40
MAD 28.22
Table 13. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using the exponential Smoothing

1980 $ 25,640.46 $ 26,009.97 369.51
1981 $ 26,030.40 $ 25,640.46 389.94
1982 $ 25,281.85 $ 26,030.40 748.55
1983 $ 26,185.81 $ 25,281.86 903.95
1984 $ 27,822.62 $ 26,185.80 1,636.82
1985 $ 28,717.52 $ 27,822.60 894.92
1986 $ 29,443.29 $ 28,717.51 725.78
1987 $ 30,115.34 $ 29,443.28 672.06
1988 $ 31,069.41 $ 30,115.33 954.08
1989 $ 31,876.78 $ 31,069.40 807.38
1990 $ 32,112.35 $ 31,876.77 235.58
1991 $ 31,614.01 $ 32,112.35 498.34
1992 $ 32,255.32 $ 31,614.01 641.31
1993 $ 32,746.79 $ 32,255.31 491.48
1994 $ 33,670.65 $ 32,746.79 923.86
1995 $ 34,111.44 $ 33,670.64 440.80
1996 $ 34,977.42 $ 34,111.44 865.98
1997 $ 36,101.89 $ 34,977.41 1,124.48

1998 $ 37,238.28 $ 36,101.88 1,136.40
1999 $ 38,591.91 $ 37,238.27 1,353.64
2000 $ 39,749.59 $ 38,591.90 1,157.69
2001 $ 39,767.99 $ 39,749.58 18.41
2002 $ 40,061.71 $ 39,767.99 293.72
2003 $ 40,696.59 $ 40,061.71 634.88
2004 $ 41,726.80 $ 40,696.58 1,030.22
2005 $ 42,612.30 $ 41,726.79 885.51
2006 $ 43,331.93 $ 42,612.29 719.64
2007 $ 43,726.18 $ 43,331.92 394.26
2008 $ 43,177.70 $ 43,726.18 548.48
2009 $ 41,313.18 $ 43,177.71 1,864.53
2010 $ 42,204.92 $ 41,313.20 891.72
2011 $ 42,204.91
MAD 782.38
Figure 5. Graph of the forecasted Real GDP per capita of the three countries using simple exponential
smoothing
$100,000.00
$90,000.00
$80,000.00
$70,000.00 US forecast
$60,000.00 US actual
$20,000.00 China actual
$10,000.00
$-
1980
2002
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2004
2006
2008
2010
Trend Projection
Table 14. Forecasting China Real GDP per capita using the trend projection

YEAR X Actual Forecast |ERROR|
1980 1 $ 220.54 -165.24 385.78
1981 2 $ 228.84 -87.60 316.44
1982 3 $ 246.17 -9.96 256.12
1983 4 $ 269.23 67.69 201.55
1984 5 $ 307.19 145.33 161.86
1985 6 $ 341.49 222.98 118.51
1986 7 $ 365.90 300.62 65.28
1987 8 $ 401.41 378.26 23.15
1988 9 $ 439.12 455.91 16.78
1989 10 $ 449.62 533.55 83.93
1990 11 $ 459.99 611.19 151.20
1991 12 $ 495.39 688.84 193.45
1992 13 $ 558.97 766.48 207.51
1993 14 $ 629.76 844.12 214.36
1994 15 $ 704.57 921.77 217.19
1995 16 $ 773.53 999.41 225.88
1996 17 $ 842.49 1077.05 234.57
1997 18 $ 912.05 1154.70 242.64
1998 19 $ 974.66 1232.34 257.68
1999 20 $ 1,039.96 1309.99 270.03
2000 21 $ 1,116.60 1387.63 271.03
2001 22 $ 1,201.06 1465.27 264.21
2002 23 $ 1,301.87 1542.92 241.05
2003 24 $ 1,424.16 1620.56 196.40
2004 25 $ 1,559.14 1698.20 139.06
2005 26 $ 1,726.10 1775.85 49.74
2006 27 $ 1,934.68 1853.49 81.19
2007 28 $ 2,197.08 1931.13 265.95
2008 29 $ 2,396.38 2008.78 387.61
2009 30 $ 2,604.35 2086.42 517.93
2010 31 $ 2,859.43 2164.06 695.36
MAD 224.30

Table 15. Forecasting Philippines Real GDP per capita using Trend Projection
YEAR X Actual Forecast |ERROR|

1980 1 $ 1,098.40 925.74 172.66
1981 2 $ 1,104.66 935.12 169.54
1982 3 $ 1,113.18 944.51 168.67
1983 4 $ 1,103.02 953.90 149.12
1984 5 $ 994.46 963.28 31.18
1985 6 $ 896.96 972.67 75.71
1986 7 $ 902.81 982.05 79.24
1987 8 $ 916.82 991.44 74.62
1988 9 $ 953.24 1000.82 47.58
1989 10 $ 986.62 1010.21 23.59
1990 11 $ 991.40 1019.59 28.19
1991 12 $ 961.97 1028.98 67.01
1992 13 $ 942.64 1038.36 95.72
1993 14 $ 940.56 1047.75 107.19
1994 15 $ 959.65 1057.13 97.48
1995 16 $ 982.03 1066.52 84.49
1996 17 $ 1,016.31 1075.90 59.59
1997 18 $ 1,025.55 1085.29 59.74
1998 19 $ 1,016.78 1094.67 77.89
1999 20 $ 1,025.55 1104.06 78.51
2000 21 $ 1,048.07 1113.45 65.38
2001 22 $ 1,055.81 1122.83 67.02
2002 23 $ 1,071.69 1132.22 60.53
2003 24 $ 1,102.22 1141.60 39.38
2004 25 $ 1,153.02 1150.99 2.03
2005 26 $ 1,185.38 1160.37 25.01
2006 27 $ 1,225.05 1169.76 55.29
2007 28 $ 1,283.47 1179.14 104.33
2008 29 $ 1,314.23 1188.53 125.70
2009 30 $ 1,307.14 1197.91 109.23
2010 31 $ 1,383.40 1207.30 176.10
MAD 85.15230411

Table 16. Forecasting US Real GDP per capita using Trend Projection

1980 $ 25,640.46 - -
1981 $ 26,030.40 $ 25,640.46 389.94
1982 $ 25,281.85 $ 26,030.40 748.55
1983 $ 26,185.81 $ 25,281.85 903.96
1984 $ 27,822.62 $ 26,185.81 1,636.81
1985 $ 28,717.52 $ 27,822.62 894.90
1986 $ 29,443.29 $ 28,717.52 725.77
1987 $ 30,115.34 $ 29,443.29 672.05
1988 $ 31,069.41 $ 30,115.34 954.07
1989 $ 31,876.78 $ 31,069.41 807.37
1990 $ 32,112.35 $ 31,876.78 235.57
1991 $ 31,614.01 $ 32,112.35 498.34
1992 $ 32,255.32 $ 31,614.01 641.31
1993 $ 32,746.79 $ 32,255.32 491.47
1994 $ 33,670.65 $ 32,746.79 923.86
1995 $ 34,111.44 $ 33,670.65 440.79
1996 $ 34,977.42 $ 34,111.44 865.98
1997 $ 36,101.89 $ 34,977.42 1,124.47
1998 $ 37,238.28 $ 36,101.89 1,136.39
1999 $ 38,591.91 $ 37,238.28 1,353.63
2000 $ 39,749.59 $ 38,591.91 1,157.68
2001 $ 39,767.99 $ 39,749.59 18.40
2002 $ 40,061.71 $ 39,767.99 293.72
2003 $ 40,696.59 $ 40,061.71 634.88
2004 $ 41,726.80 $ 40,696.59 1,030.21
2005 $ 42,612.30 $ 41,726.80 885.50
2006 $ 43,331.93 $ 42,612.30 719.63
2007 $ 43,726.18 $ 43,331.93 394.25
2008 $ 43,177.70 $ 43,726.18 548.48
2009 $ 41,313.18 $ 43,177.70 1,864.52
2010 $ 42,204.92 $ 41,313.18 891.74
MAD 803.64

Figure 6. Graph of the forecasted Real GDP per capita of the three countries using Trend Projection
$100,000.00
$90,000.00
$80,000.00
$70,000.00
US actual
$60,000.00
$50,000.00 US forecast
$20,000.00
China Forecast
$10,000.00
China actual
$-
1986
2000
1980
1982
1984
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010

VI. SUMMARY/ IMPLICATIONS
Data indicates an increasing pace of real GDP per capita in all of the three countries.
Assuming all other things constant, forecasts shows a continuous and chain effect among data.
This implies that in the near future, the People’s Republic of China could establish a grip in the
world’s production but will stay behind the United States of America since the forecasted result
also indicated strength in the US economy. At its pace however, Philippines cannot establish
strong stable economy in the next 40-50 years. Fluctuations is a big possibility and might turn
the tides as supported by high MAD’s.
In the real scenario, the Pacific region will be under the influence of the United States
since at the presence of its major fleet in the region in 20 years, China is still far behind the US
(in terms of GDP).The Philippines on the rear side will still have a control in the trade routes of
goods and services in the Asia Pacific, however not because of its economic influence but
because of the reluctance of China due to the presence of US forces.
Furthermore, the trend seems to be irreversible that production will be dominated by
Asian countries in the next 40-50 years. The challenge therefore for smaller countries like the
Philippines is to make its own moves and shall not rely on western allies since these countries
might experience breakdown as data reveals. Measures such as technological advancement
(labor augmenting technology), population control (to increase per capita datum), and increase
in national savings (to increase investment and increase production).

VII. REFERENCES
Barrientos, Miguel. (n.d.) Philippines: Real GDP per Capita. Retrieved August 29, 2012,
from http://www.indexmundi.com.
Timimi, Keith. (2008). Economy Watch: Follow the Money. Retrieved August 29, 2012, from
http://www.economywatch.com.
Officer, Lawrence H. (2011). Annual observations in Table and Graphical Format 1790 to
the Present. Retrieved August 29, 2012, from http://www.measuringworth.com.
VIII. APPENDICES
Appendix A
3-year Unweighted Moving Averages
China:

1980 $ 220.54 - -
1981 $ 228.84 - -
1982 $ 246.17 - -
1983 $ 269.23 $ 231.85 37.39
1984 $ 307.19 $ 248.08 59.11
1985 $ 341.49 $ 274.20 67.29
1986 $ 365.90 $ 305.97 59.92
1987 $ 401.41 $ 338.19 63.22
1988 $ 439.12 $ 369.60 69.53
1989 $ 449.62 $ 402.14 47.48
1990 $ 459.99 $ 430.05 29.94
1991 $ 495.39 $ 449.58 45.81
1992 $ 558.97 $ 468.33 90.64
1993 $ 629.76 $ 504.78 124.98
1994 $ 704.57 $ 561.37 143.20
1995 $ 773.53 $ 631.10 142.43
1996 $ 842.49 $ 702.62 139.87
1997 $ 912.05 $ 773.53 138.52
1998 $ 974.66 $ 842.69 131.97

1999 $ 1,039.96 $ 909.73 130.22
2000 $ 1,116.60 $ 975.56 141.05
2001 $ 1,201.06 $ 1,043.74 157.32
2002 $ 1,301.87 $ 1,119.21 182.66
2003 $ 1,424.16 $ 1,206.51 217.65
2004 $ 1,559.14 $ 1,309.03 250.11
2005 $ 1,726.10 $ 1,428.39 297.71
2006 $ 1,934.68 $ 1,569.80 364.88
2007 $ 2,197.08 $ 1,739.98 457.10
2008 $ 2,396.38 $ 1,952.62 443.76
2009 $ 2,604.35 $ 2,176.05 428.30
2010 $ 2,859.43 $ 2,399.27 460.16
2011 $ 2,620.05
MAD 175.79
Appendix B
Philippines:

1980 $ 1,098.40 - -
1981 $ 1,104.66 - -
1982 $ 1,113.18 - -
1983 $ 1,103.02 $ 1,105.41 2.39
1984 $ 994.46 $ 1,106.95 112.49
1985 $ 896.96 $ 1,070.22 173.26
1986 $ 902.81 $ 998.15 95.34
1987 $ 916.82 $ 931.41 14.59
1988 $ 953.24 $ 905.53 47.71
1989 $ 986.62 $ 924.29 62.33
1990 $ 991.40 $ 952.23 39.17
1991 $ 961.97 $ 977.09 15.12
1992 $ 942.64 $ 980.00 37.36
1993 $ 940.56 $ 965.34 24.78
1994 $ 959.65 $ 948.39 11.26
1995 $ 982.03 $ 947.62 34.41
1996 $ 1,016.31 $ 960.75 55.56
1997 $ 1,025.55 $ 986.00 39.55

1998 $ 1,016.78 $ 1,007.96 8.82
1999 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,019.55 6.00
2000 $ 1,048.07 $ 1,022.63 25.44
2001 $ 1,055.81 $ 1,030.13 25.68
2002 $ 1,071.69 $ 1,043.14 28.55
2003 $ 1,102.22 $ 1,058.52 43.70
2004 $ 1,153.02 $ 1,076.57 76.45
2005 $ 1,185.38 $ 1,108.98 76.40
2006 $ 1,225.05 $ 1,146.87 78.18
2007 $ 1,283.47 $ 1,187.82 95.65
2008 $ 1,314.23 $ 1,231.30 82.93
2009 $ 1,307.14 $ 1,274.25 32.89
2010 $ 1,383.40 $ 1,301.61 81.79
2011 $ 1,334.92
MAD 50.99
Appendix C
US:

1980 $ 25,640.46 - -
1981 $ 26,030.40 - -
1982 $ 25,281.85 - -
1983 $ 26,185.81 $ 25,650.90 534.91
1984 $ 27,822.62 $ 25,832.69 1,989.93
1985 $ 28,717.52 $ 26,430.09 2,287.43
1986 $ 29,443.29 $ 27,575.32 1,867.97
1987 $ 30,115.34 $ 28,661.14 1,454.20
1988 $ 31,069.41 $ 29,425.38 1,644.03
1989 $ 31,876.78 $ 30,209.35 1,667.43
1990 $ 32,112.35 $ 31,020.51 1,091.84
1991 $ 31,614.01 $ 31,686.18 72.17
1992 $ 32,255.32 $ 31,867.71 387.61
1993 $ 32,746.79 $ 31,993.89 752.90
1994 $ 33,670.65 $ 32,205.37 1,465.28
1995 $ 34,111.44 $ 32,890.92 1,220.52
1996 $ 34,977.42 $ 33,509.63 1,467.79
1997 $ 36,101.89 $ 34,253.17 1,848.72

1998 $ 37,238.28 $ 35,063.58 2,174.70
1999 $ 38,591.91 $ 36,105.86 2,486.05
2000 $ 39,749.59 $ 37,310.69 2,438.90
2001 $ 39,767.99 $ 38,526.59 1,241.40
2002 $ 40,061.71 $ 39,369.83 691.88
2003 $ 40,696.59 $ 39,859.76 836.83
2004 $ 41,726.80 $ 40,175.43 1,551.37
2005 $ 42,612.30 $ 40,828.37 1,783.93
2006 $ 43,331.93 $ 41,678.56 1,653.37
2007 $ 43,726.18 $ 42,557.01 1,169.17
2008 $ 43,177.70 $ 43,223.47 45.77
2009 $ 41,313.18 $ 43,411.94 2,098.76
2010 $ 42,204.92 $ 42,739.02 534.10
2011 $ 42,231.93
MAD 1373.53
Appendix D
China:

1980 $ 220.54 - -
1981 $ 228.84 - -
1982 $ 246.17 - -
1983 $ 269.23 - -
1984 $ 307.19 $ 241.19 66.00
1985 $ 341.49 $ 262.86 78.63
1986 $ 365.90 $ 291.02 74.88
1987 $ 401.41 $ 320.95 80.46
1988 $ 439.12 $ 354.00 85.13
1989 $ 449.62 $ 386.98 62.64
1990 $ 459.99 $ 414.01 45.98
1991 $ 495.39 $ 437.54 57.85
1992 $ 558.97 $ 461.03 97.94
1993 $ 629.76 $ 490.99 138.77
1994 $ 704.57 $ 536.03 168.55
1995 $ 773.53 $ 597.17 176.36
1996 $ 842.49 $ 666.71 175.78

1997 $ 912.05 $ 737.59 174.47
1998 $ 974.66 $ 808.16 166.50
1999 $ 1,039.96 $ 875.68 164.27
2000 $ 1,116.60 $ 942.29 174.31
2001 $ 1,201.06 $ 1,010.82 190.24
2002 $ 1,301.87 $ 1,083.07 218.80
2003 $ 1,424.16 $ 1,164.87 259.29
2004 $ 1,559.14 $ 1,260.92 298.22
2005 $ 1,726.10 $ 1,371.56 354.55
2006 $ 1,934.68 $ 1,502.82 431.86
2007 $ 2,197.08 $ 1,661.02 536.06
2008 $ 2,396.38 $ 1,854.25 542.13
2009 $ 2,604.35 $ 2,063.56 540.79
2010 $ 2,859.43 $ 2,283.12 576.30
2011 $ 2,514.31
MAD 219.88
Appendix E
Philippines:

1980 $ 1,098.40 - -
1981 $ 1,104.66 - -
1982 $ 1,113.18 - -
1983 $ 1,103.02 - -
1984 $ 994.46 $ 1,104.82 110.36
1985 $ 896.96 $ 1,078.83 181.87
1986 $ 902.81 $ 1,026.91 124.10
1987 $ 916.82 $ 974.31 57.49
1988 $ 953.24 $ 927.76 25.48
1989 $ 986.62 $ 917.46 69.16
1990 $ 991.40 $ 939.87 51.53
1991 $ 961.97 $ 962.02 0.05
1992 $ 942.64 $ 973.31 30.67
1993 $ 940.56 $ 970.66 30.10
1994 $ 959.65 $ 959.14 0.51
1995 $ 982.03 $ 951.21 30.82
1996 $ 1,016.31 $ 956.22 60.09
1997 $ 1,025.55 $ 974.64 50.91

1998 $ 1,016.78 $ 995.89 20.90
1999 $ 1,025.55 $ 1,010.17 15.38
2000 $ 1,048.07 $ 1,021.05 27.02
2001 $ 1,055.81 $ 1,028.99 26.82
2002 $ 1,071.69 $ 1,036.55 35.14
2003 $ 1,102.22 $ 1,050.28 51.94
2004 $ 1,153.02 $ 1,069.45 83.57
2005 $ 1,185.38 $ 1,095.69 89.70
2006 $ 1,225.05 $ 1,128.08 96.97
2007 $ 1,283.47 $ 1,166.42 117.05
2008 $ 1,314.23 $ 1,211.73 102.50
2009 $ 1,307.14 $ 1,252.03 55.11
2010 $ 1,383.40 $ 1,282.47 100.93
2011 $ 1,322.06
MAD 60.97
Appendix F
US:

1980 $ 25,640.46 - -
1981 $ 26,030.40 - -
1982 $ 25,281.85 - -
1983 $ 26,185.81 - -
1984 $ 27,822.62 $ 25,784.63 2,037.99
1985 $ 28,717.52 $ 26,330.17 2,387.35
1986 $ 29,443.29 $ 27,001.95 2,441.34
1987 $ 30,115.34 $ 28,042.31 2,073.03
1988 $ 31,069.41 $ 29,024.69 2,044.72
1989 $ 31,876.78 $ 29,836.39 2,040.39
1990 $ 32,112.35 $ 30,626.21 1,486.15
1991 $ 31,614.01 $ 31,293.47 320.54
1992 $ 32,255.32 $ 31,668.14 587.18
1993 $ 32,746.79 $ 31,964.62 782.18
1994 $ 33,670.65 $ 32,182.12 1,488.53
1995 $ 34,111.44 $ 32,571.69 1,539.75
1996 $ 34,977.42 $ 33,196.05 1,781.37

1997 $ 36,101.89 $ 33,876.58 2,225.32
1998 $ 37,238.28 $ 34,715.35 2,522.93
1999 $ 38,591.91 $ 35,607.26 2,984.65
2000 $ 39,749.59 $ 36,727.38 3,022.22
2001 $ 39,767.99 $ 37,920.42 1,847.57
2002 $ 40,061.71 $ 38,836.94 1,224.77
2003 $ 40,696.59 $ 39,542.80 1,153.79
2004 $ 41,726.80 $ 40,068.97 1,657.83
2005 $ 42,612.30 $ 40,563.27 2,049.03
2006 $ 43,331.93 $ 41,274.35 2,057.58
2007 $ 43,726.18 $ 42,091.91 1,634.28
2008 $ 43,177.70 $ 42,849.30 328.40
2009 $ 41,313.18 $ 43,212.03 1,898.85
2010 $ 42,204.92 $ 42,887.25 682.33
2011 $ 42,605.50
MAD 1714.82
Appendix G
Comparisons of the Accuracy Indicator mean absolute deviation (MAD) of Unweighted Moving
Averages
mean absolute deviation (MAD)

2-period 3-period 4-period
China 131.81 175.79 219.88
Philippines 40.19 50.99 60.97
US 1066.91 1373.53 1714.82
Appendix H
3-year Weighted Moving Average
China:

1980 $ 220.54 - -
1981 $ 228.84 - -
1982 $ 246.17 - -
1983 $ 269.23 236.12 33.12
1984 $ 307.19 254.81 52.38

1985 $ 341.49 284.37 57.12
1986 $ 365.90 318.01 47.88
1987 $ 401.41 347.97 53.44
1988 $ 439.12 379.58 59.54
1989 $ 449.62 414.35 35.27
1990 $ 459.99 438.09 21.91
1991 $ 495.39 453.06 42.33
1992 $ 558.97 475.96 83.01
1993 $ 629.76 521.28 108.48
1994 $ 704.57 583.77 120.81
1995 $ 773.53 655.37 118.16
1996 $ 842.49 726.58 115.90
1997 $ 912.05 796.52 115.54
1998 $ 974.66 865.78 108.89
1999 $ 1,039.96 931.76 108.19
2000 $ 1,116.60 996.88 119.73
2001 $ 1,201.06 1067.40 133.66
2002 $ 1,301.87 1146.06 155.81
2003 $ 1,424.16 1237.39 186.77
2004 $ 1,559.14 1346.21 212.93
2005 $ 1,726.10 1471.27 254.83
2006 $ 1,934.68 1620.13 314.55
2007 $ 2,197.08 1802.57 394.52
2008 $ 2,396.38 2031.12 365.26
2009 $ 2,604.35 2253.00 351.35
2010 $ 2,859.43 2467.15 392.28
2011 2697.23
MAD 148.70
Appendix I
Philippines:

1980 $ 1,098.40 - -
1981 $ 1,104.66 - -
1982 $ 1,113.18 - -
1983 $ 1,103.02 1107.88 4.86
1984 $ 994.46 1106.68 112.22
1985 $ 896.96 1050.43 153.47

1986 $ 902.81 963.80 60.99
1987 $ 916.82 916.14 0.68
1988 $ 953.24 908.84 44.40
1989 $ 986.62 932.70 53.93
1990 $ 991.40 963.86 27.54
1991 $ 961.97 983.45 21.48
1992 $ 942.64 975.89 33.25
1993 $ 940.56 957.21 16.65
1994 $ 959.65 944.82 14.83
1995 $ 982.03 950.45 31.58
1996 $ 1,016.31 967.66 48.65
1997 $ 1,025.55 995.44 30.11
1998 $ 1,016.78 1015.22 1.56
1999 $ 1,025.55 1019.63 5.92
2000 $ 1,048.07 1022.63 25.44
2001 $ 1,055.81 1035.35 20.46
2002 $ 1,071.69 1048.19 23.50
2003 $ 1,102.22 1062.46 39.76
2004 $ 1,153.02 1084.31 68.71
2005 $ 1,185.38 1122.53 62.85
2006 $ 1,225.05 1160.73 64.32
2007 $ 1,283.47 1199.82 83.65
2008 $ 1,314.23 1247.65 66.58
2009 $ 1,307.14 1289.11 18.03
2010 $ 1,383.40 1305.56 77.84
2011 1346.45
MAD 43.33
Appendix J
US:

1980 $ 25,640.46 - -
1981 $ 26,030.40 - -
1982 $ 25,281.85 $ 25,900.42 618.57
1983 $ 26,185.81 $ 25,531.37 654.44
1984 $ 27,822.62 $ 25,884.49 1,938.13
1985 $ 28,717.52 $ 27,277.02 1,440.50
1986 $ 29,443.29 $ 28,419.22 1,024.07

1987 $ 30,115.34 $ 29,201.37 913.97
1988 $ 31,069.41 $ 29,891.32 1,178.09
1989 $ 31,876.78 $ 30,751.39 1,125.39
1990 $ 32,112.35 $ 31,607.66 504.69
1991 $ 31,614.01 $ 32,033.83 419.82
1992 $ 32,255.32 $ 31,780.12 475.20
1993 $ 32,746.79 $ 32,041.55 705.24
1994 $ 33,670.65 $ 32,582.97 1,087.68
1995 $ 34,111.44 $ 33,362.70 748.74
1996 $ 34,977.42 $ 33,964.51 1,012.91
1997 $ 36,101.89 $ 34,688.76 1,413.13
1998 $ 37,238.28 $ 35,727.07 1,511.21
1999 $ 38,591.91 $ 36,859.48 1,732.43
2000 $ 39,749.59 $ 38,140.70 1,608.89
2001 $ 39,767.99 $ 39,363.70 404.29
2002 $ 40,061.71 $ 39,761.86 299.85
2003 $ 40,696.59 $ 39,963.80 732.79
2004 $ 41,726.80 $ 40,484.96 1,241.84
2005 $ 42,612.30 $ 41,383.40 1,228.90
2006 $ 43,331.93 $ 42,317.13 1,014.80
2007 $ 43,726.18 $ 43,092.05 634.13
2008 $ 43,177.70 $ 43,594.76 417.06
2009 $ 41,313.18 $ 43,360.53 2,047.35
2010 $ 42,204.92 $ 41,934.69 270.23
2011 $ 41,907.67
MAD 1173.29
Appendix K
China:

1980 $ 220.54 - -
1981 $ 228.84 - -
1982 $ 246.17 - -
1983 $ 269.23 - -
1984 $ 307.19 415.61 108.42
1985 $ 341.49 459.61 118.12
1986 $ 365.90 512.03 146.13

1987 $ 401.41 561.94 160.53
1988 $ 439.12 615.58 176.46
1989 $ 449.62 672.33 222.71
1990 $ 459.99 714.09 254.10
1991 $ 495.39 744.75 249.36
1992 $ 558.97 783.31 224.34
1993 $ 629.76 848.61 218.85
1994 $ 704.57 941.12 236.55
1995 $ 773.53 1053.48 279.95
1996 $ 842.49 1171.06 328.57
1997 $ 912.05 1288.24 376.19
1998 $ 974.66 1404.55 429.89
1999 $ 1,039.96 1515.55 475.59
2000 $ 1,116.60 1625.07 508.47
2001 $ 1,201.06 1741.28 540.22
2002 $ 1,301.87 1868.10 566.23
2003 $ 1,424.16 2013.97 589.81
2004 $ 1,559.14 2186.83 627.69
2005 $ 1,726.10 2385.64 659.54
2006 $ 1,934.68 2622.01 687.33
2007 $ 2,197.08 2909.91 712.83
2008 $ 2,396.38 3267.29 870.90
2009 $ 2,604.35 3628.71 1024.36
2010 $ 2,859.43 3989.23 1129.80
2011 4373.43
MAD 441.59
Appendix L
Philippines:

1980 $ 1,098.40 - -
1981 $ 1,104.66 - -
1982 $ 1,113.18 - -
1983 $ 1,103.02 - -
1984 $ 994.46 1843.22 848.76
1985 $ 896.96 1769.65 872.69
1986 $ 902.81 1648.41 745.60

1987 $ 916.82 1565.68 648.86
1988 $ 953.24 1527.35 574.11
1989 $ 986.62 1544.33 557.71
1990 $ 991.40 1590.44 599.04
1991 $ 961.97 1624.79 662.82
1992 $ 942.64 1624.76 682.12
1993 $ 940.56 1604.32 663.76
1994 $ 959.65 1584.25 624.60
1995 $ 982.03 1584.59 602.56
1996 $ 1,016.31 1605.14 588.83
1997 $ 1,025.55 1645.20 619.65
1998 $ 1,016.78 1679.14 662.36
1999 $ 1,025.55 1693.07 667.52
2000 $ 1,048.07 1703.33 655.26
2001 $ 1,055.81 1721.34 665.53
2002 $ 1,071.69 1739.22 667.53
2003 $ 1,102.22 1762.65 660.43
2004 $ 1,153.02 1797.27 644.25
2005 $ 1,185.38 1852.99 667.61
2006 $ 1,225.05 1912.79 687.74
2007 $ 1,283.47 1977.43 693.96
2008 $ 1,314.23 2055.47 741.24
2009 $ 1,307.14 2123.80 816.66
2010 $ 1,383.40 2160.54 777.14
2011 2227.83
MAD 677.72
Appendix M
US:

1980 $ 25,640.46 Forecast |ERROR|
1981 $ 26,030.40 - -
1982 $ 25,281.85 - -
1983 $ 26,185.81 - -
1984 $ 27,822.62 - -
1985 $ 28,717.52 43048.34 15225.72
1986 $ 29,443.29 44407.00 15689.48
1987 $ 30,115.34 45998.57 16555.28

1988 $ 31,069.41 47626.13 17510.79
1989 $ 31,876.78 49008.15 17938.74
1990 $ 32,112.35 50371.29 18494.51
1991 $ 31,614.01 51731.55 19619.20
1992 $ 32,255.32 52722.32 21108.31
1993 $ 32,746.79 52936.01 20680.69
1994 $ 33,670.65 53327.47 20580.68
1995 $ 34,111.44 53848.92 20178.27
1996 $ 34,977.42 54841.27 20729.83
1997 $ 36,101.89 55867.77 20890.35
1998 $ 37,238.28 57055.35 20953.46
1999 $ 38,591.91 58538.89 21300.61
2000 $ 39,749.59 60220.85 21628.94
2001 $ 39,767.99 62210.61 22461.02
2002 $ 40,061.71 64225.42 24457.43
2003 $ 40,696.59 65457.14 25395.43
2004 $ 41,726.80 66273.65 25577.06
2005 $ 42,612.30 67042.84 25316.04
2006 $ 43,331.93 68148.06 25535.76
2007 $ 43,726.18 69514.08 26182.15
2008 $ 43,177.70 70885.80 27159.62
2009 $ 41,313.18 71975.32 28797.62
2010 $ 42,204.92 72194.25 30881.07
2011 70928.35 28723.43
MAD 22206.35
Appendix N
Comparisons of the Accuracy Indicator mean absolute deviation (MAD) of Weighted Moving
Averages
mean absolute deviation (MAD)

2-period 3-period 4-period
China 118.11 148.70 441.59
Philippines 36.20 43.33 677.72
US 979.46 1173.29 22206.35
Appendix O
Computation for the Best Alpha for Simple Exponential Smoothing Using Microsoft Solver

China:
Microsoft Excel 12.0 Answer Report

Worksheet: [forecasting china real gdp per capita.xlsx]exponential
smoothing
Report Created: 9/5/2012 11:51:12 PM
Target Cell (Min)

Original Final
Cell Name Value Value
MAD =
$D$35 |ERROR| 446.66093 85.56216
Adjustable Cells
Original Final
$F$2 α= 0.1 0.9999999
Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$F$2 α= 1 $F$2<=1 Binding 0
Not
$F$2 α= 1 $F$2>=0 Binding 1
Appendix P
Philippines:

Worksheet: [forecasting ph real gdp per capita.xlsx]exponential smoothing
Target Cell (Min)

Original
Cell Name Value Final Value
MAD =
$D$35 |ERROR| 86.78 28.22

Adjustable Cells
Original
Cell Name Value Final Value
$F$2 α= 0.1 0.99999999
Constraints
$F$2 α= 1 $F$2<=1 Binding 0
Not
$F$2 α= 1 $F$2>=0 Binding 1
Appendix Q
US:

Worksheet: [forecasting us real gdp per capita.xlsx]simple expo
smoothing
Target Cell (Min)

Original Final
MAD
$D$36 |ERROR| 4,260.24 782.38
Adjustable Cells
Original Final
$F$3 ά= 0.1 0.99999
Constraints
Not
$F$3 ά= 1 $F$3>=0 Binding 1
$F$3 ά= 1 $F$3<=1 Binding 0


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2012

Forecasting GDP per Capita (Current Prices): A Comparative;

Don Wade Comoro

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 2

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 3

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 4

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 5

projected by international economic watch groups as well as individual researchers. Current

combined which is expected to be only 19%.

economic output (as measured by GDP).However, according to the International Monetary

preside over an economy that plays second fiddle to China’s. In a statement by

economywatch.com, it highlighted that China could overtake US to become world's largest

only over taken by Vietnam and China.

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 6

have significant military strength to defend its claim.

the world’s increasing population or the extinction of whales.

II. OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

a) To make predictions of the economic stability of China, Philippines and United

b) To be able to aid policymakers in deciding future contingency measures in

relations with economic stability.

c) To provide useful information for better understanding of the future world

production given the trends available.

d) To analyze implications of current trade policies’ impact on future world economy.

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 7

Central Intelligence Agency.

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 8

F t+1 =forecast for time period t +1

Yt = actual value in time period t

n = number of periods to average

Weighted Moving Average

used for the weighted moving average.

W1= weight of the first observation

W2= weight of the second observation

smoothing is shown below:

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 9

Ft+1 = new forecast (for time period t + 1)

Ft = previous forecast (for time period t)

Yt = previous period’s actual demand

dependent variable is the Real GDP per capita in US dollars.

IV. PRESENTATION OF DATA

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 10

Real GDP per capita

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 11

Real GDP per capita

V. FORECASTS AND ACCURACY TESTING

YEAR Actual Forecast |ERROR|

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 12

YEAR Actual Forecast |ERROR|

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 13

YEAR Actual Forecast |ERROR|

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 14

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 15

Simple Moving Average

YEAR Actual Forecast |ERROR|

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 16

YEAR Actual Forecast |ERROR|

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 17

YEAR Actual Forecast |ERROR|

Mgt 181 Quantitative Analysis Page 18